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An improved technique for modeling initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions: Applications in Illinois (USA) aux vases oil reservoirs

An improved technique for modeling the initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions is presented. In contrast to the Leverett J-function approach, this methodology (hereby termed flow-unit-derived initial oil saturation or FUSOI) determines the distributions of the initial oil saturations from a measure of the mean hydraulic radius, referred to as the flow zone indicator (FZI). FZI is derived from porosity and permeability data. In the FUSOI approach, capillary pressure parameters, S(wir), P(d), and ??, derived from the Brooks and Corey (1966) model [Brooks, R.H., Corey, A.T., 1966. Hydraulic properties of porous media, Hydrology Papers, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, No. 3, March.], are correlated to the FZI. Subsequent applications of these parameters then permit the computation of improved hydrocarbon saturations as functions of FZI and height above the free water level (FWL). This technique has been successfully applied in the Mississippian Aux Vases Sandstone reservoirs of the Illinois Basin (USA). The Aux Vases Zeigler field (Franklin County, IL, USA) was selected for a field-wide validation of this FUSOI approach because of the availability of published studies. With the initial oil saturations determined on a depth-by-depth basis in cored wells, it was possible to geostatistically determine the three-dimensional (3-D) distributions of initial oil saturations in the Zeigler field. The original oil-in-place (OOIP), computed from the detailed initialization of the 3-D reservoir simulation model of the Zeigler field, was found to be within 5.6% of the result from a rigorous material balance method.An improved technique for modeling the initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions is presented. In contrast to the Leverett J-function approach, this methodology (hereby termed flow-unit-derived initial oil saturation or FUSOI) determines the distributions of the initial oil saturations from a measure of the mean hydraulic radius, referred to as the flow zone indicator (FZI). FZI is derived from porosity and permeability data. In the FUSOI approach, capillary pressure parameters, Swir, Pd, and ??, derived from the Brooks and Corey (1966) model, are correlated to the FZI. Subsequent applications of these parameters then permit the computation of improved hydrocarbon saturations as functions of FZI and height above the free water level (FWL). This technique has been successfully applied in the Mississippian Aux Vases Sandstone reservoirs of the Illinois Basin (USA). The Aux Vases Zeigler field (Franklin County, IL, USA) was selected for a field-wide validation of this FUSOI approach because of the availability of published studies. With the initial oil saturations determined on a depth-by-depth basis in cored wells, it was possible to geostatistically determine the three-dimensional (3-D) distributions of initial oil saturations in the Zeigler field. The original oil-in-place (OOIP), computed from the detailed initialization of the 3-D reservoir simulation model of the Zeigler field, was found to be within 5.6% of the result from a rigorous material balance method.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering↗

Hydraulic conductivity of a sandy soil at low water content after compaction by various methods

To investigate the degree to which compaction of a sandy soil influences its unsaturated hydraulic conductivity K , samples of Oakley sand (now in the Delhi series; mixed, thermic, Typic Xeropsamments) were packed to various densities and K was measured by the steady-state centrifuge method. The air-dry, machine packing was followed by centrifugal compression with the soil wet to about one-third saturation. Variations in (i) the impact frequency and (ii) the impact force during packing, and (iii) the amount of centrifugal force applied after packing, produced a range of porosity from 0.333 to 0.380. With volumetric water content θ between 0.06 and 0.12, K values were between 7 × 10 −11 and 2 × 10 −8 m/s. Comparisons of K at a single θ value for samples differing in porosity by about 3% showed as much as fivefold variation for samples prepared by different packing procedures, while there generally was negligible variation (within experimental error of 8%) where the porosity difference resulted from a difference in centrifugal force. Analysis involving capillary-theory models suggests that the differences in K can be related to differences in pore-space geometry inferred from water retention curves measured for the various samples.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

Sexual difference in PCB concentrations of walleyes (Sander vitreus) from a pristine lake

We determined polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in 15 adult female walleyes (Sander vitreus) and 15 adult male walleyes from South Manistique Lake (Michigan, United States), a relatively pristine lake with no point source inputs of PCBs. By measuring PCB concentration in gonads and in somatic tissue of the South Manistique Lake fish, we also estimated the expected change in PCB concentration due to spawning for both sexes. To determine whether gross growth efficiency differed between the sexes, we applied bioenergetics modeling. Results showed that, on average, adult males were 34% higher in PCB concentration than adult females in South Manistique Lake. Results from the PCB determinations of the gonads and somatic tissues revealed that shedding of the gametes led to 1% and 5% increases in PCB concentration for males and females, respectively. Therefore, shedding of the gametes could not explain the higher PCB concentration in adult male walleyes. Bioenergetics modeling results indicated that the sexual difference in PCB concentrations of South Manistique Lake walleyes was attributable, at least in part, to a sexual difference in gross growth efficiency (GGE). Adult female GGE was estimated to be up to 17% greater than adult male GGE.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Long-term impacts of impervious surface cover change and roadway deicing agent application on chloride concentrations in exurban and suburban watersheds

Roadway deicing agents, including rock salt and brine containing NaCl, have had a profound impact on the water quality and aquatic health of rivers and streams in urbanized areas with temperate climates. Yet, few studies evaluate impacts to watersheds characterized by relatively low impervious surface cover (ISC; < 15 %). Here, we use long-term (1997-2019), monthly streamwater quality data combined with daily streamflow for six exurban and suburban watersheds in southeastern Pennsylvania to examine the relations among chloride (Cl − ) concentrations and ISC. Both flow-normalized Cl − concentrations and ISC increased over time in each of the six watersheds, consistent with changes in watershed management (e.g., ISC, road salt application, etc.). The watersheds that experienced the greatest changes in percent ISC (e.g., agriculture replaced by residential and commercial development) experienced the greatest changes in flow-normalized Cl − concentrations. We also utilized a comprehensive mass-balance model (2011–2018) that indicated Cl − inputs exceeded the outputs for the study watersheds. Road salt applied to state roads, non-state roads, and other impervious surfaces accounted for the majority of Cl − inputs to the six watersheds. Furthermore, increasing Cl − concentrations during baseflow conditions confirm impacts to shallow groundwater. Although flow-normalized Cl − concentrations are below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's chronic threshold value for impacts to aquatic organisms, year-round exceedances may result before the end of this century based on current trends. Though reduced Cl − loading to streams may be achieved by limiting the expansion of impervious surfaces in exurban and suburban watersheds, changes in baseflow concentrations are likely to be gradual because of the accumulated Cl − in groundwater.

Pennsylvania↗

Characterizing downstream migration timing of American Eels using commercial catch data in the Penobscot and Delaware rivers

Adult “silver-phase” American Eels Anguilla rostrata were a focus of commercial fisheries in the 1970s and 1980s, but stocks have been depleted due to many anthropogenic factors. One significant source of mortality occurs during the downstream migration of eels when passing through turbines at hydroelectric facilities. We sought to construct a model to predict eel migration timing to inform optimization of mitigation actions that might reduce mortality. We utilized commercial catch collected from 16 tributaries in the Penobscot River watershed, Maine (2–10 years), and the Delaware River, New York (31 years). A Bayesian hierarchical approach was used to model the relationship between the timing of silver eel capture and environmental conditions that are known to be related to their movements (i.e., river discharge, water temperature, and lunar cycle). Among river systems, daily catch was associated with higher-than-average flows, temperatures of 7–22°C, and new lunar phase cycles. A cross-validation approach to evaluate the ability of the models to make predictions for new data demonstrated a greater ability (higher R 2 values) to predict weekly eel catch (0.01–0.92) compared to daily eel catch (0.00–0.42). In addition, we examined the model’s ability to forecast migration events by applying posterior simulations to make predictions of eel catch by ordinal date. Predicted daily eel catch generally followed the trend of observed daily catch and was stronger for the Delaware River ( R 2 = 0.67) than for Souadabscook Stream, Maine ( R 2 = 0.07). Sharp pulses in observed catch were not reflected by the predicted catch. Additionally, variability observed among rivers suggests that site-specific modeling may be advantageous (and necessary) to capture local conditions, thereby improving predictive power. More broadly, our work highlights a novel use of fishery-dependent data in a Bayesian modeling framework to predict intervals of risk for migrating fish.

Maine, New York↗

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Laboratory investigations of the effects of nitrification-induced acidification on Cr cycling in vadose zone material partially derived from ultramafic rocks

Sacramento Valley (California, USA) soils and sediments have high concentrations of Cr(III) because they are partially derived from ultramafic material. Some Cr(III) is oxidized to more toxic and mobile Cr(VI) by soil Mn oxides. Valley soils typically have neutral to alkaline pH at which Cr(III) is highly immobile. Much of the valley is under cultivation and is both fertilized and irrigated. A series of laboratory incubation experiments were conducted to assess how cultivation might impact Cr cycling in shallow vadose zone material from the valley. The first experiments employed low (7.1 mmol N per kg soil) and high (35 mmol N kg − 1 ) concentrations of applied (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 . Initially, Cr(VI) concentrations were up to 45 and 60% greater than controls in low and high incubations, respectively. After microbially-mediated oxidation of all NH 4 + , Cr(VI) concentrations dropped below control values. Increased nitrifying bacterial populations (estimated by measurement of phospholipid fatty acids) may have increased the Cr(VI) reduction capacity of the vadose zone material resulting in the observed decreases in Cr(VI). Another series of incubations employed vadose zone material from a different location to which low (45 meq kg − 1 ) and high (128 meq kg − 1 ) amounts of NH 4 Cl, KCl, and CaCl 2 were applied. All treatments, except high concentration KCl, resulted in mean soil Cr(VI) concentrations that were greater than the control. High concentrations of water-leachable Ba 2 + (mean 38 μmol kg − 1 ) in this treatment may have limited Cr(VI) solubility. A final set of incubations were amended with low (7.1 mmol N kg − 1 ) and high (35 mmol N kg − 1 ) concentrations of commercial liquid ammonium polyphosphate (APP) fertilizer which contained high concentrations of Cr(III). Soil Cr(VI) in the low APP incubations increased to a concentration of 1.8 μmol kg − 1 (5 × control) over 109 days suggesting that Cr(III) added with the APP fertilizer was more reactive than naturally-occurring soil Cr(III).

Science of the Total Environment↗

Transient simulations of nitrogen load for a coastal aquifer and embayment, Cape Cod, MA

A time-varying, multispecies, modular, three-dimensional transport model (MT3DMS) was developed to simulate groundwater transport of nitrogen from increasing sources on land to the shore of Nauset Marsh, a coastal embayment of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Simulated time-dependent nitrogen loads at the coast can be used to correlate with current observed coastal eutrophic effects, to predict current and ultimate effects of development, and to predict loads resulting from source remediation. A time-varying nitrogen load, corrected for subsurface loss, was applied to the land subsurface in the transport model based on five land-use coverages documenting increasing development from 1951 to 1999. Simulated nitrogen loads to Nauset Marsh increased from 230 kg/yr before 1930 to 4390 kg/yr in 2001 to 7130 kg/yr in 2100, assuming future nitrogen sources constant at the 1999 land-use rate. The simulated nitrogen load per area of embayment was 5 times greater for Salt Pond, a eutrophic landward extension of Nauset Marsh, than for other Nauset Marsh areas. Sensitivity analysis indicated that load results were little affected by changes in vertical discretization and annual recharge but much affected by the nitrogen loss rate assumed for a kettle lake downgradient from a landfill.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Understanding landowner intentions to create early successional forest habitat in the northeastern United States

Early successional forest habitat (ESH) and associated wildlife species in the northeastern United States are in decline. One way to help create early successional forest conditions is engaging private forest landowners in even-aged forest management because their limited participation may have contributed to declines in ESH for wildlife species of high conservation concern. We applied the reasoned action approach from social psychology to predict intentions of landowners in the 13-county Southern Tier of New York State, USA, to conduct patch-cuts, which is a type of even-aged forest management. We tested the predictive ability of the model using data from a mail survey of landowners conducted from November 2010 to January 2011. Landowner intention to conduct patch-cuts was high (55% of respondents), with attitude being the strongest direct predictor of behavioral intention. Our results suggest that patch-cutting intentions are most likely expressed by landowners who think the behavior is good for their land and wildlife, believe in positive outcomes of land and wildlife management, belong to a game wildlife organization, and have conducted patch-cuts in the past. Strategies to engage more landowners in ESH management will have the highest likelihood of success if outreach efforts focus on influencing behavioral beliefs and subsequently attitudes, possibly working with game wildlife organizations to communicate a unified message for habitat conservation, including the importance of maintaining and creating ESH. Our results demonstrate the importance of social science research to increase the likelihood that conservation targets for declining wildlife species are met. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

New York↗

Biodegradation of organic chemicals in soil/water microcosms system: Model development

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants with soils and sediments may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. In order to illustrate the recalcitrance of chemical to degradation on sites, a sorption mechanism of intraparticle sequestration was postulated to operate on chemical remediation sites. Pseudo-first order sequestration kinetics is used in the study with the hypothesis that sequestration is an irreversibly surface-mediated process. A mathematical model based on mass balance equations was developed to describe the fate of chemical degradation in soil/water microcosm systems. In the model, diffusion was represented by Fick's second law, local sorption-desorption by a linear isotherm, irreversible sequestration by a pseudo-first order kinetics and biodegradation by Monod kinetics. Solutions were obtained to provide estimates of chemical concentrations. The mathematical model was applied to a benzene biodegradation batch test and simulated model responses correlated well compared to measurements of biodegradation of benzene in the batch soil/water microcosm system. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effects of several parameters on model behavior. Overall chemical removal rate decreased and sequestration increased quickly with an increase in the sorption partition coefficient. When soil particle radius, a, was greater than 1 mm, an increase in radius produced a significant decrease in overall chemical removal rate as well as an increase in sequestration. However, when soil particle radius was less than 0.1 mm, an increase in radius resulted in small changes in the removal rate and sequestration. As pseudo-first order sequestration rate increased, both chemical removal rate and sequestration increased slightly. Model simulation results showed that desorption resistance played an important role in the bioavailability of organic chemicals in porous media. Complete biostabilization of chemicals on remediation sites can be achieved when the concentration of the reversibly sorbed chemical reduces to zero (i.e., undetectable), with a certain amount of irreversibly sequestrated chemical left inside the soil particle solid phase. ?? 2006 Springer Science + Business Media B.V.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗

Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climatic Change↗

Pesticide exposure of wild bees and honey bees foraging from field border flowers in intensively managed agriculture areas

Bees are critical for food crop pollination, yet their populations are declining as agricultural practices intensify. Pollinator-attractive field border plantings (e.g. hedgerows and forb strips) can increase bee diversity and abundance in agricultural areas, however recent studies suggest these plants may contain pesticides. Pesticide exposure for wild bees in agricultural areas remains largely unknown, however this information is needed to inform agricultural practices and pesticide regulations meant to protect bees. It is important to determine whether border plantings that attract and support pollinators by providing floral resources may also deliver pesticides to them. In this study, we collected various samples for pesticide residue analysis including: multiple species of wild bees, honey bees, flowers from four types of bee-attractive field border plants, and soil. Silicone bands were also utilized as passive aerial samplers of pesticide residues. The five pesticides detected most frequently across all samples were the insecticide bifenthrin, the herbicides thiobencarb, metolaclor, and propanil, and the fungicide fluopyram. We detected the greatest number of parent pesticides in passive aerial samplers (24), followed by soil (21). Pesticides were also detected in field border plant flowers (16), which do not receive direct pesticides applications and many of which were not applied to adjacent field crops. Pesticide concentrations were lower in bees than in flowers but higher in bees than in soils. Pesticide residue per bee (ng/bee) increased with increasing wild bee size, though pesticide concentration (ng/g) did not increase. While honey bees and wild bees contained a similar number and concentration of pesticides overall, pesticide mixtures varied by bee type, and included some mixtures known to cause sublethal effects. The results from this study highlight the benefits of measuring more sample types to capture the total exposome of bees, including a greater range of bee species, as well as the need to consider exposure to pesticides at the landscape level.

California↗

Using age tracers and decadal sampling to discern trends in nitrate, arsenic and uranium in groundwater beneath irrigated cropland

Repeat sampling and age tracers were used to examine trends in nitrate, arsenic and uranium concentrations in groundwater beneath irrigated cropland. Much higher nitrate concentrations in shallow modern groundwater were observed at both the Columbia Plateau and High Plains sites (median values of 10.2 and 15.4 mg/L as N, respectively) than in groundwater that recharged prior to the onset of intensive irrigation (median values of <1 and <4 mg/L as N, respectively). Repeat sampling of these well networks indicates that high nitrate concentrations in modern, shallow groundwater have been sustained for decades, posing a future risk to older, deeper groundwater used for drinking water. In fact, nitrate concentrations in older modern water (30-60 years since recharge) at the High Plains site have increased in the last decade. Groundwater irrigated areas in the Columbia Plateau tend to have higher nitrate concentrations than surface-water irrigated areas suggesting that repeated dissolution of land applied fertilizer during recirculation may be an important factor causing high nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Mobilization of uranium and arsenic by land surface activities is suggested by the higher concentrations of these constituents in modern, shallow groundwater than in older, deeper groundwater at the Columbia Plateau site. Bicarbonate concentrations in modern groundwater are positively correlated with uranium (r=0.72, p<0.01), suggesting bicarbonate may mobilize uranium in this system. A positive correlation between arsenic and phosphorus concentrations in modern groundwater (r=0.55, p<0.01) suggests that phosphate from fertilizer outcompetes arsenate for sorption sites, mobilizing sorbed arsenic derived from past pesticide use or other sources.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Documentation of methods and inventory of irrigation data collected for the 2000 and 2005 U.S. Geological Survey Estimated use of water in the United States, comparison of USGS-compiled irrigation data to other sources, and recommendations for future compilations

Every five years since 1950, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP) has compiled water-use information in the United States and published a circular report titled "Estimated use of water in the United States," which includes estimates of water withdrawals by State, sources of water withdrawals (groundwater or surface water), and water-use category (irrigation, public supply, industrial, thermoelectric, and so forth). This report discusses the impact of important considerations when estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals, including estimates of conveyance loss, irrigation-system efficiencies, pasture, horticulture, golf courses, and double cropping. This report also documents the methods and data sources used by the USGS Water Science Centers (WSCs) for estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals reported in the 2000 and 2005 USGS 5-year water-use compilations. For the 2005 USGS water-use compilation, the most common sources used by WSCs for obtaining irrigated crop acreage were the 2002 Census of Agriculture, 2003 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey (FRIS), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), universities, and local and State agencies. In this report, the authors compare USGS-compiled irrigated acreage to Census of Agriculture- and FRIS- reported irrigated acreage. Nationwide irrigated acreage increased from the 1997 to 2007 Census of Agriculture estimates by about 1 percent and from the 1998 to 2008 FRIS estimates by about 9 percent. Conversely, total irrigated acreage decreased from the 2000 to 2005 USGS water-use compilations by about 2 percent. An indirect method for estimating irrigation withdrawals is presented and results are compared to the 2005 USGS-reported irrigation withdrawals for selected States. This method is meant to demonstrate a way to check data reported or received from a third party, if metered data are unavailable. Of the 11 States where this method was applied, 8 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were within 15 percent of what was reported in the 2005 water-use compilation, and 3 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were more than 20 percent of what was reported in 2005. Recommendations for improving estimates of irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals also are presented in this report. Conveyance losses and irrigation-system efficiencies should be considered in order to achieve a more accurate representation of irrigation withdrawals. Better documentation of data sources and methods used can help lead to more consistent information in future irrigation water-use compilations. Finally, a summary of data sources and methods used to estimate irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals for the 2000 and 2005 compilations for each WSC is presented in appendix 1.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Quantification of 15 bile acids in lake charr feces by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry

Many fishes are hypothesized to use bile acids (BAs) as chemical cues, yet quantification of BAs in biological samples and the required methods remain limited. Here, we present an UHPLC&ndash;MS/MS method for simultaneous, sensitive, and rapid quantification of 15 BAs, including free, taurine, and glycine conjugated BAs, and application of the method to fecal samples from lake charr ( Salvelinus namaycush ). The analytes were separated on a C 18 column with acetonitrile&ndash;water (containing 7.5 mM ammonium acetate and 0.1% formic acid) as mobile phase at a flow rate of 0.25 mL/min for 12 min. BAs were monitored with a negative electrospray triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (Xevo TQ-S&trade;). Calibration curves of 15 BAs were linear over the concentration range of 1.00&ndash;5,000 ng/mL. Validation revealed that the method was specific, accurate, and precise. The method was applied to quantitative analysis of feces extract of fry lake charr and the food they were eating. The concentrations of analytes CA, TCDCA, TCA, and CDCA were 242.3, 81.2, 60.7, and 36.2 ng/mg, respectively. However, other taurine conjugated BAs, TUDCA, TDCA, and THDCA, were not detected in feces of lake charr. Interestingly, TCA and TCDCA were detected at high concentrations in food pellets, at 71.9 and 38.2 ng/mg, respectively. Application of the method to feces samples from lake charr supported a role of BAs as chemical cues, and will enhance further investigation of BAs as chemical cues in other fish species.

Journal of Chromatography B: Analytical Technologi↗

Ecophysiology of "halarsenatibacter silvermanii" strain SLAS-1 T , gen. nov., sp. nov., a facultative chemoautotrophic arsenate respirer from salt-saturated Searles Lake, California

Searles Lake occupies a closed basin harboring salt-saturated, alkaline brines that have exceptionally high concentrations of arsenic oxyanions. Strain SLAS-1 T was previously isolated from Searles Lake (R. S. Oremland, T. R. Kulp, J. Switzer Blum, S. E. Hoeft, S. Baesman, L. G. Miller, and J. F. Stolz, Science 308:1305-1308, 2005). We now describe this extremophile with regard to its substrate affinities, its unusual mode of motility, sequenced arrABD gene cluster, cell envelope lipids, and its phylogenetic alignment within the order Halanaero-bacteriales, assigning it the name "Halarsenatibacter silvermanii" strain SLAS-1 T . We also report on the substrate dynamics of an anaerobic enrichment culture obtained from Searles Lake that grows under conditions of salt saturation and whose members include a novel sulfate reducer of the order Desulfovibriales, the archaeon Halorhabdus utahensis, as well as a close homolog of strain SLAS-1 T . Copyright ?? 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

Bayesian networks facilitate updating of species distribution and habitat suitability models

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

Oregon, Washington↗

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment↗