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The net exchanges of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy were examined in a perennial Colorado Plateau grassland for 5 years. The study began within a multiyear drought and continued as the drought ended. The grassland is located near the northern boundary of the influence of the North American monsoon, a major climatic feature bringing summer rain. Following rain, evapotranspiration peaked above 8 mm d -1 but was usually much smaller (2-4 mm d -1 ). Net productivity of the grassland was low compared to other ecosystems, with peak hourly net CO 2 uptake in the spring of 4 (mu or u)mol m -2 s -1 and springtime carbon gain in the range of 42 + or - 11 g C m -2 (based on fluxes) to 72 + or - 55 g C m -2 (based on carbon stocks; annual carbon gain was not quantified). Drought decreased gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration, with a much larger GEP decrease. Monsoon rains led to respiratory pulses, lasting a few days at most, and only rarely resulted in net CO 2 gain, despite the fact that C 4 grasses dominated plant cover. Minor CO 2 uptake was observed in fall following rain. Spring CO 2 uptake was regulated by deep soil moisture, which depended on precipitation in the prior fall and winter. The lack of CO 2 uptake during the monsoon and the dependence of GEP on deep soil moisture are in contrast with arid grasslands of the warm deserts. Cold desert grasslands are most likely to be impacted by future changes in winter and not summer precipitation.
The mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during snowmelt often accounts for a major fraction of the annual loads. We studied the role of hydrological connectivity of riparian wetlands and upland/wetland transition zones to surface waters on the mobilization of Hg and DOC in Fishing Brook, a headwater of the Adirondack Mountains, New York. Stream water total mercury (THg) concentrations varied strongly (mean = 2.25 ± 0.5 ng L −1 ), and the two snowmelt seasons contributed 40% (2007) and 48% (2008) of the annual load. Methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations ranged up to 0.26 ng L −1 , and showed an inverse log relationship with discharge. TOPMODEL‐simulated saturated area corresponded well with wetland areas, and the application of a flow algorithm based elevation‐above‐creek approach suggests that most wetlands become well connected during high flow. The dynamics of simulated saturated area and soil storage deficit were able to explain a large part of the variation of THg concentrations (r 2 = 0.53 to 0.72). In contrast, the simulations were not able to explain DOC variations and DOC and THg concentrations were not correlated. These results indicate that all three constituents, THg, MeHg, and DOC, follow different patterns at the outlet: (1) the mobilization of THg is primarily controlled by the saturation state of the catchment, (2) the dilution of MeHg suggests flushing from a supply limited pool, and (3) DOC dynamics follow a pattern different from THg dynamics, which likely results from differing gain and/or loss processes for THg and/or DOC within the Fishing Brook catchment.
[1] Boreal wetland carbon cycling is vulnerable to climate change in part because hydrology and the extent of frozen ground have strong influences on plant and microbial functions. We examined the response of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) across an experimental manipulation of water table position (both raised and lowered water table treatments) in a boreal-rich fen in interior Alaska. DOC and TDN responses to water table manipulation exhibited an interaction with seasonal ice dynamics. We observed consistently higher DOC and TDN concentrations in the lowered water table treatment (71.7 ± 6.5 and 3.0 ± 0.3 mg−L) than in both the control (55.6 ± 5.1 and 2.3 ± 0.2 mg−L) and raised (49.1 ± 4.3 and 1.9 ± 0.1 mg L−1, respectively) water table treatments. Across all plots, pore water DOC concentrations at 20 cm increased as the depth to water table increased (R2 = 0.43, p < 0.001). DOC concentrations also increased as the seasonal thaw depth increased, with solutes increasing most rapidly in the drained plot (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.001). About half of the TDN pool was composed of dissolved organic N (DON). Inorganic N and DON were both highly correlated with changes in DOC, and their respective constraints to mineralization are discussed. These results demonstrate that a declining water table position and dryer conditions affect thaw depth and peat temperatures, and interactions among these ecosystem properties will likely increase DOC and TDN loading and potential for export in these systems.
Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm −2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm −2 ) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm −2 ) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.
Previous studies suggested that the grasslands may be carbon sinks or near equilibrium, and they often shift between carbon sources in drought years and carbon sinks in other years. It is important to understand the responses of net ecosystem production (NEP) to various climatic conditions across the U.S. Great Plains grasslands. Based on 15 grassland flux towers, we developed a piecewise regression model and mapped the grassland NEP at 250 m spatial resolution over the Great Plains from 2000 to 2008. The results showed that the Great Plains was a net sink with an averaged annual NEP of 24 ± 14 g C m −2 yr −1 , ranging from a low value of 0.3 g C m −2 yr −1 in 2002 to a high value of 47.7 g C m −2 yr −1 in 2005. The regional averaged NEP for the entire Great Plains grasslands was estimated to be 336 Tg C yr −1 from 2000 to 2008. In the 9 year period including 4 dry years, the annual NEP was very variable in both space and time. It appeared that the carbon gains for the Great Plains were more sensitive to droughts in the west than the east. The droughts in 2000, 2002, 2006, and 2008 resulted in increased carbon losses over drought-affected areas, and the Great Plains grasslands turned into a relatively low sink with NEP values of 15.8, 0.3, 20.1, and 10.2 g C m −2 yr −1 for the 4 years, respectively.
Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty
An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum‐pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days ( Kp ≤ 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA , day of year DOY , lunar age LA , and local time LT . After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar‐activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north‐south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi‐annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity.
We tested the hypothesis that the Slumgullion landslide is a useful natural laboratory for observing fault slip, specifically that slip along its basal surface and side-bounding strike-slip faults occurs with comparable richness of aseismic and seismic modes as along crustal- and plate-scale boundaries. Our study provides new constraints on models governing landslide motion. We monitored landslide deformation with temporary deployments of a 29-element prism array surveyed by a robotic theodolite and an 88-station seismic network that complemented permanent extensometers and environmental instrumentation. Aseismic deformation observations show that large blocks of the landslide move steadily at approximately centimeters per day, possibly punctuated by variations of a few millimeters, while localized transient slip episodes of blocks less than a few tens of meters across occur frequently. We recorded a rich variety of seismic signals, nearly all of which originated outside the monitoring network boundaries or from the side-bounding strike-slip faults. The landslide basal surface beneath our seismic network likely slipped almost completely aseismically. Our results provide independent corroboration of previous inferences that dilatant strengthening along sections of the side-bounding strike-slip faults controls the overall landslide motion, acting as seismically radiating brakes that limit acceleration of the aseismically slipping basal surface. Dilatant strengthening has also been invoked in recent models of transient slip and tremor sources along crustal- and plate-scale faults suggesting that the landslide may indeed be a useful natural laboratory for testing predictions of specific mechanisms that control fault slip at all scales.
In 2009 a swarm of small shallow earthquakes occurred within the basalt flows of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The swarm occurred within a dense seismic network in the U.S. Department of Energys Hanford Site. Data from the seismic network along with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agencys (ESA) ENVISAT satellite provide insight into the nature of the swarm. By modeling the InSAR deformation data we constructed a model that consists of a shallow thrust fault and a near horizontal fault. We suggest that the near horizontal lying fault is a bedding-plane fault located between basalt flows. The geodetic moment of the modeled fault system is about eight times the cumulative seismic moment of the swarm. Precise location estimates of the swarm earthquakes indicate that the area of highest slip on the thrust fault, ???70mm of slip less than ???0.5km depth, was not located within the swarm cluster. Most of the slip on the faults appears to have progressed aseismically and we suggest that interbed sediments play a central role in the slip process. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The attenuation relationship for Hispaniola earthquakes and northern Lesser Antilles earthquakes is similar to that for California earthquakes, indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance. Intensities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands decrease less rapidly with distance. We use the intensity-magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude MI which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes. Many events occurred in the 20th-century along the plate-boundary segment from central Hispaniola to the NW tip of Puerto Rico, but earlier events from this segment were not identified. The remaining plate boundary to the east to Guadeloupe is probably not associated with M > 8 historical subduction-zone earthquakes. The May 2, 1787 earthquake, previously assigned an M 8–8.25, is probably only M I 6.9 and could be located north, west or SW of Puerto Rico. An M I 6.9 earthquake on July 11, 1785 was probably located north or east of the Virgin Islands. We located M I < 8 historical earthquakes on April 5, 1690, February 8, 1843, and October 8, 1974 in the northern Lesser Antilles within the arc. We speculate that the December 2, 1562 (M I 7.7) and May 7, 1842 (M I 7.6) earthquakes ruptured the Septentrional Fault in northern Hispaniola. If so, the recurrence interval on the central Septentrional Fault is ~300 years, and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event. The recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record. Intra-arc M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur every 75–100 years in the 410-km-long segment between the Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe.
The great 27 February 2010 M w 8.8 earthquake off the coast of southern Chile ruptured a ∼600 km length of subduction zone. In this paper, we make two independent estimates of shear stress in the crust in the region of the Chile earthquake. First, we use a coseismic slip model constrained by geodetic observations from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS to derive a spatially variable estimate of the change in static shear stress along the ruptured fault. Second, we use a static force balance model to constrain the crustal shear stress required to simultaneously support observed fore‐arc topography and the stress orientation indicated by the earthquake focal mechanism. This includes the derivation of a semianalytic solution for the stress field exerted by surface and Moho topography loading the crust. We find that the deviatoric stress exerted by topography is minimized in the limit when the crust is considered an incompressible elastic solid, with a Poisson ratio of 0.5, and is independent of Young's modulus. This places a strict lower bound on the critical stress state maintained by the crust supporting plastically deformed accretionary wedge topography. We estimate the coseismic shear stress change from the Maule event ranged from −6 MPa (stress increase) to 17 MPa (stress drop), with a maximum depth‐averaged crustal shear‐stress drop of 4 MPa. We separately estimate that the plate‐driving forces acting in the region, regardless of their exact mechanism, must contribute at least 27 MPa trench‐perpendicular compression and 15 MPa trench‐parallel compression. This corresponds to a depth‐averaged shear stress of at least 7 MPa. The comparable magnitude of these two independent shear stress estimates is consistent with the interpretation that the section of the megathrust fault ruptured in the Maule earthquake is weak, with the seismic cycle relieving much of the total sustained shear stress in the crust.
We describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries, called Slab1.0. An extension of previous efforts to constrain the two-dimensional non-planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes, Slab1.0 describes the detailed, non-planar, three-dimensional geometry of approximately 85% of subduction zones worldwide. While the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone, where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology, it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper-mid mantle, providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry. Examples are shown for two well-constrained global locations; models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new Slab1.0 website, http://on.doi.gov/d9ARbS . We describe improvements in our two-dimensional geometry constraint inversion, including the use of ‘average’ active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking, derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along-strike in the same subduction zone. We include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three-dimensional interpolation methods. In addition, we use the filtered, subduction-related earthquake data sets compiled to build Slab1.0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far, concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30% larger than previous studies have suggested.
Eruptive activity at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, beginning in March, 2008 and continuing to the present time is characterized by episodic explosive bursts of gas and ash from a vent within Halemaumau Pit Crater. These bursts are accompanied by seismic signals that are well recorded by a broadband network deployed in the summit caldera. We investigate in detail the dimensions and oscillation modes of the source of a representative burst in the 1−10 s band. An extended source is realized by a set of point sources distributed on a grid surrounding the source centroid, where the centroid position and source geometry are fixed from previous modeling of very-long-period (VLP) data in the 10–50 s band. The source time histories of all point sources are obtained simultaneously through waveform inversion carried out in the frequency domain. Short-scale noisy fluctuations of the source time histories between adjacent sources are suppressed with a smoothing constraint, whose strength is determined through a minimization of the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). Waveform inversions carried out for homogeneous and heterogeneous velocity structures both image a dominant source component in the form of an east trending dike with dimensions of 2.9 × 2.9 km. The dike extends ∼2 km west and ∼0.9 km east of the VLP centroid and spans the depth range 0.2–3.1 km. The source model for a homogeneous velocity structure suggests the dike is hinged at the source centroid where it bends from a strike E 27°N with northern dip of 85° west of the centroid, to a strike E 7°N with northern dip of 80° east of the centroid. The oscillating behavior of the dike is dominated by simple harmonic modes with frequencies ∼0.2 Hz and ∼0.5 Hz, representing the fundamental mode ν 11 and first degenerate mode ν 12 = ν 21 of the dike. Although not strongly supported by data in the 1–10 s band, a north striking dike segment is required for enhanced compatibility with the model elaborated in the 10–50 s band. This dike provides connectivity between the east trending dike and the new vent within Halemaumau Pit Crater. Waveform inversions with a dual-dike model suggest dimensions of 0.7 × 0.7 km to 2.6 × 2.6 km for this segment. Further elaboration of the complex dike system under Halemaumau does not appear to be feasible with presently available data.
Pull‐apart basins are narrow zones of crustal extension bounded by strike‐slip faults that can serve as analogs to the early stages of crustal rifting. We use seismic tomography, 2‐D ray tracing, gravity modeling, and subsidence analysis to study crustal extension of the Dead Sea basin (DSB), a large and long‐lived pull‐apart basin along the Dead Sea transform (DST). The basin gradually shallows southward for 50 km from the only significant transverse normal fault. Stratigraphic relationships there indicate basin elongation with time. The basin is deepest (8–8.5 km) and widest (∼15 km) under the Lisan about 40 km north of the transverse fault. Farther north, basin depth is ambiguous, but is 3 km deep immediately north of the lake. The underlying pre‐basin sedimentary layer thickens gradually from 2 to 3 km under the southern edge of the DSB to 3–4 km under the northern end of the lake and 5–6 km farther north. Crystalline basement is ∼11 km deep under the deepest part of the basin. The upper crust under the basin has lower P wave velocity than in the surrounding regions, which is interpreted to reflect elevated pore fluids there. Within data resolution, the lower crust below ∼18 km and the Moho are not affected by basin development. The subsidence rate was several hundreds of m/m.y. since the development of the DST ∼17 Ma, similar to other basins along the DST, but subsidence rate has accelerated by an order of magnitude during the Pleistocene, which allowed the accumulation of 4 km of sediment. We propose that the rapid subsidence and perhaps elongation of the DSB are due to the development of inter‐connected mid‐crustal ductile shear zones caused by alteration of feldspar to muscovite in the presence of pore fluids. This alteration resulted in a significant strength decrease and viscous creep. We propose a similar cause to the enigmatic rapid subsidence of the North Sea at the onset the North Atlantic mantle plume. Thus, we propose that aqueous fluid flux into a slowly extending continental crust can cause rapid basin subsidence that may be erroneously interpreted as an increased rate of tectonic activity.
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
The northern Cascadia forearc takes up most of the strain transmitted northward via the Oregon Coast block from the northward-migrating Sierra Nevada block. The north-south contractional strain in the forearc manifests in upper-plate faults active during the Holocene, the northern-most components of which are faults within the Bellingham Basin. The Bellingham Basin is the northern of four basins of the actively deforming northern Cascadia forearc. A set of Holocene faults, Drayton Harbor, Birch Bay, and Sandy Point faults, occur within the Bellingham Basin and can be traced from onshore to offshore using a combination of aeromagnetic lineaments, paleoseismic investigations and scarps identified using LiDAR imagery. With the recognition of such Holocene faults, the northernmost margin of the actively deforming Cascadia forearc extends 60 km north of the previously recognized limit of Holocene forearc deformation. Although to date no Holocene faults are recognized at the northern boundary of the Bellingham Basin, which is 15 km north of the international border, there is no compelling tectonic reason to expect that Holocene faults are limited to south of the international border.
Volcanic plumes are often studied using one-dimensional analytical models, which use an empirical entrainment ratio to close the equations. Although this ratio is typically treated as constant, its value near the vent is significantly reduced due to flow development and overpressured conditions. To improve the accuracy of these models, a series of experiments was performed using particle image velocimetry, a high-accuracy, full-field velocity measurement technique. Experiments considered a high-speed jet with Reynolds numbers up to 467,000 and exit pressures up to 2.93 times atmospheric. Exit gas densities were also varied from 0.18 to 1.4 times that of air. The measured velocity was integrated to determine entrainment directly. For jets with exit pressures near atmospheric, entrainment was approximately 30% less than the fully developed level at 20 diameters from the exit. At pressures nearly three times that of the atmosphere, entrainment was 60% less. These results were introduced into Plumeria, a one-dimensional plume model, to examine the impact of reduced entrainment. The maximum column height was only slightly modified, but the critical radius for collapse was significantly reduced, decreasing by nearly a factor of two at moderate eruptive pressures.