Rates of change in invasive annual grass cover to inform management actions in sagebrush ecosystems
No abstract available.
Rangelands↗
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Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States – Representing a decade of land cover change information
The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides nationwide data on land cover and land cover change at the native 30-m spatial resolution of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). The database is designed to provide five-year cyclical updating of United States land cover and associated changes. The recent release of NLCD 2011 products now represents a decade of consistently produced land cover and impervious surface for the Nation across three periods: 2001, 2006, and 2011 (Homer et al., 2007; Fry et al., 2011). Tree canopy cover has also been produced for 2011 (Coluston et al., 2012; Coluston et al., 2013). With the release of NLCD 2011, the database provides the ability to move beyond simple change detection to monitoring and trend assessments. NLCD 2011 represents the latest evolution of NLCD products, continuing its focus on consistency, production, efficiency, and product accuracy. NLCD products are designed for widespread application in biology, climate, education, land management, hydrology, environmental planning, risk and disease analysis, telecommunications and visualization, and are available for no cost at http://www.mrlc.gov. NLCD is produced by a Federal agency consortium called the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) (Wickham et al., 2014). In the consortium arrangement, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) leads NLCD land cover and imperviousness production for the bulk of the Nation; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completes NLCD land cover for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) coastal zones; and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) designs and produces the NLCD tree canopy cover product. Other MRLC partners collaborate through resource or data contribution to ensure NLCD products meet their respective program needs (Wickham et al., 2014).
Conterminous United States↗
Potential interactions between birds and floating photovoltaic solar energy: Spatially informed species vulnerabilities, techno-ecological risks, and sustainability trade-offs
Floating photovoltaics (floating solar panels; FPV) can reduce the negative impacts of solar energy development in terrestrial environments, but their effects on freshwater ecosystems remain poorly understood. We examined potential FPV interactions with avian biodiversity, using previously modeled technical potential of FPV in the northeastern United States. We developed a vulnerability index based on avian species’: (i) morphological traits, (ii) level of conservation concern, and (iii) habitat requirements. Using eBird participatory science data, we assessed the risk of FPV to 291 species of birds occurring at FPV-suitable waterbodies based on their vulnerability index and estimated relative abundance at each location. The greatest risk of FPVs to birds was associated with waterbodies near the Atlantic coast and Great Lakes, and most (80%) of these high-risk waterbodies were smaller waterbodies. Because the avian risk at FPV-suitable waterbodies was not correlated with estimated energy generation, reducing risk to birds might not require energy trade-offs. Moreover, avoiding FPV installations at waterbodies predicted to pose high risk to birds is likely to return social and recreational benefits while minimizing risk of biofouling. Our analysis provides a framework for proactively evaluating risk, reducing potential adverse impacts of FPV to birds, and identifying cobenefits of sustainable FPV siting across waterscapes.
Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
A critical time for mercury science to inform global policy
Mercury is a global pollutant released into the biosphere by varied human activities including coal combustion, mining, artisanal gold mining, cement production, and chemical production. Once released to air, land and water, the addition of carbon atoms to mercury by bacteria results in the production of methylmercury, the toxic form that bioaccumulates in aquatic and terrestrial food chains resulting in elevated exposure to humans and wildlife. Global recognition of the mercury contamination problem has resulted in the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which came into force in 2017. The treaty aims to protect human health and the environment from human-generated releases of mercury curtailing its movement and transformations in the biosphere. Coincident with the treaty’s coming into force, the 13th International Conference of Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP-13) was held in Providence, Rhode Island USA. At ICMGP-13, cutting edge research was summarized and presented to address questions relating to global and regional sources and cycling of mercury, how that mercury is methylated, the effects of mercury exposure on humans and wildlife, and the science needed for successful implementation of the Minamata Convention. Human activities have the potential to enhance mercury methylation by remobilizing previously released mercury, and increasing methylation efficiency. This synthesis concluded that many of the most important factors influencing the fate and effects of mercury and its more toxic form, methylmercury, stem from environmental changes that are much broader in scope than mercury releases alone. Alterations of mercury cycling, methylmercury bioavailability and trophic transfer due to climate and land use changes remain critical uncertainties in effective implementation of the Minamata Convention. In the face of these uncertainties, important policy and management actions are needed over the short-term to support the control of mercury releases to land, water and air. These include adequate monitoring and communication on risk from exposure to various forms of inorganic mercury as well as methylmercury from fish and rice consumption. Successful management of global and local mercury pollution will require integration of mercury research and policy in a changing world.
Environmental Science & Technology↗
Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing
Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative probability functions (PDFs) for active layer depths under current and future climates. The difference in PDFs over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N, Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
Information on stress conditions in the oceanic crust from oval fractures in a deep borehole
Oval images etched into the vail of a deep borehole were detected in DSDP (Deep Sea Drilling Project) Hole 504B, eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, from analysis of an acoustic televiever log. Initial speculation as to the origin of these remarkable features considered the intersection of pillow basalts with the wellbore. However, a systematic inspection of these ovals has identified intriguing consistencies in appearance that cannot be explained satisfactorily by a random, coincidental distribution of pillow lavas. As an alternative hypothesis, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is used to account for the generation and orientation of similarly curved, stress-induced fractures. Consequently, these oval features can be interpreted as fractures and related directly to stress conditions in the oceanic crust at this site. The azimuth of the oval center corresponds to the orientation of maximum horizontal principal stress (S H ), and the oval width, which spans approximately 180° of the borehole, is aligned vith the azimuth of minimum horizontal principal stress (S h ). The oval height is controlled by the fracture angle and thus is a function of the coefficient of internal friction of the rock.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests
Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle 1 , 2 , and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century 3 . However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions 4 . We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord 5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4   kg   C   m −2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3   kg   C   m −2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends 6 and future projections 7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions 8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 may be over-optimistic.
Nature Climate Change↗
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.
Epidemics↗
Genetic structure of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae informs pathogen spillover dynamics between domestic and wild Caprinae in the western United States
Spillover diseases have significant consequences for human and animal health, as well as wildlife conservation. We examined spillover and transmission of the pneumonia-associated bacterium Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae in domestic sheep, domestic goats, bighorn sheep, and mountain goats across the western United States using 594 isolates, collected from 1984 to 2017. Our results indicate high genetic diversity of M. ovipneumoniae strains within domestic sheep, whereas only one or a few strains tend to circulate in most populations of bighorn sheep or mountain goats. These data suggest domestic sheep are a reservoir, while the few spillovers to bighorn sheep and mountain goats can persist for extended periods. Domestic goat strains form a distinct clade from those in domestic sheep, and strains from both clades are found in bighorn sheep. The genetic structure of domestic sheep strains could not be explained by geography, whereas some strains are spatially clustered and shared among proximate bighorn sheep populations, supporting pathogen establishment and spread following spillover. These data suggest that the ability to predict M. ovipneumoniae spillover into wildlife populations may remain a challenge given the high strain diversity in domestic sheep and need for more comprehensive pathogen surveillance.
Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
Wildfire imagery reduces risk information-seeking among homeowners as property wildfire risk increases
Negative imagery of destruction may induce or inhibit action to reduce risks from climate-exacerbated hazards, such as wildfires. This has generated conflicting assumptions among experts who communicate with homeowners: half of surveyed wildfire practitioners perceive a lack of expert agreement about the effect of negative imagery (a burning house) on homeowner behavior, yet most believe negative imagery is more engaging. We tested whether this expectation matched homeowner response in the United States. In an online experiment, homeowners who viewed negative imagery reported more negative emotions but the same behavioral intentions compared to those who viewed status-quo landscape photos. In a pre-registered field experiment, homeowners who received a postcard showing negative imagery were equally likely, overall, to visit a wildfire risk webpage as those whose postcard showed a status quo photo. However, the negative imagery decreased webpage visits as homeowners’ wildfire risk increased. These results illustrate the importance of testing assumptions to encourage behavioral adaptation to climate change.
Communications Earth & Environment↗
Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks
Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks.
Communications Earth and Environment↗
A psychologically wise intervention to inform relational organizing in the face of climate and ocean change
Widespread climate action is broadly recognized as necessary to reduce climate change impacts on oceans (“ocean change”), but threats to ocean ecosystems are commonly perceived as distant, irrelevant, and unchangeable. Communicating about ocean change, therefore, requires message framing strategies targeting evidence-based psychological precursors to behavior. In a pre-registered case study of coastal visitors in Oregon, United States ( n = 2414), we tested the influence of psychologically wise message about ocean change on climate action intentions. We primarily focused on influencing relational organizing: people’s willingness to encourage others to act. A behavior-specific message targeting relational organizing efficacy beliefs significantly but weakly increased intentions for relational organizing regarding ocean change compared to a control. Neither a connectedness to coast (place-based) message nor an ocean acidification (proximate threat-based) message had detectable effects on intentions. Our results suggest that targeting relational organizing efficacy may increase climate action intentions for the protection of coastal ecosystems.
npj Ocean Sustainability↗
GIS-based method for estimating surficial groundwater levels in coastal Virginia using limited information
In many coastal areas, high water tables are present, complicating installation of some stormwater best management practices (BMPs) that rely on infiltration. Regional estimates of the seasonal high water table (SHWT) often rely on sources such as soil surveys taken over a decade ago; these data are static and do not account for groundwater withdrawals or other anthropogenic impacts. To improve estimates of the SHWT, we developed a GIS-based methodology relying on surface water elevations. Data sources included a 1.5-m (5.0 ft) resolution Lidar-derived digital elevation model (DEM), aerial imagery, and publicly available shapefiles of water boundaries. Twenty-six groundwater monitoring wells were screened to eliminate well locations influenced by pumping, yielding 22 wells. In coastal Virginia, tidal water bodies and ditches form terminal boundaries for discharge from the water-table aquifers and permit water table elevations to be fixed at the landward boundaries of surface water bodies. Water table elevations interpolated from well data and boundary elevations were used to create a triangulated irregular network representing the water table elevations for November 2012, which was the date of the DEM. An adjustment factor, calculated from the highest recorded April water table depth from long-term groundwater monitoring data, was added to estimate the SHWT elevation. SHWT elevations were subtracted from the DEM to yield SHWT depth, which was compared with long-term monitoring well data, yielding an R2 value of 0.91. Residual errors were random, although the method underpredicted the highest expected SHWT and overpredicted the median SHWT. The SHWT depth map was validated by using water table depths from 57 soil borings at 10 different sites, and consistently matched observations better than available soil survey estimates. The SHWT depth map could be useful for BMP siting and feasibility studies in similar hydrogeological settings.
Virginia↗
The science, information, and engineering needed to manage water availability and quality in 2050
This chapter explores four water resources issues: 1) hydrologic variability, hazards, water supply and ecosystem preservation; 2) urban landscape design; 3) non-point source water quality, and 4) climate change, resiliency, and nonstationarity. It also considers what science, technology, and engineering practice may be needed in the coming decades to sustain water supplies and ecosystems in the face of increasing stresses from a growing demand for water. Dealing with these four water resource issues in the highly uncertain future would will demand predictive models that are rooted in real-world data. In a non-stationary world, continuity of observations is crucial. All watersheds are influenced by human actions through changes in land use, water use, and climate. The focus of water planning and management between today and 2050 will depend more than ever on collection and analysis of long-term data to learn about the evolving state of the system, understanding ecosystem processes in the water and on the landscape, and finding innovative ways to manage water as a shared resource. This includes sharing water with our neighbors on the landscape, sharing with the other species that depend on water, and sharing with future generations.
Book chapter↗
Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information
The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale in forecasting distributions of large fires. ?? 2009 IAWF.
International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
Extreme uncertainty and unquantifiable bias do not inform population sizes
No abstract available.
PNAS↗
MODIS-informed greenness responsesto daytime land surface temperaturefluctuations and wildfire disturbancesin the Alaskan Yukon River Basin
Pronounced climate warming and increased wildfire disturbances are known to modify forest composition and control the evolution of the boreal ecosystem over the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in interior Alaska. In this study, we evaluate the post-fire green-up rate using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from 250 m 7 day eMODIS (an alternative and application-ready type of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data) acquired between 2000 and 2009. Our analyses indicate measureable effects on NDVI values from vegetation type, burn severity, post-fire time, and climatic variables. The NDVI observations from both fire scars and unburned areas across the Alaskan YRB showed a tendency of an earlier start to the growing season (GS); the annual variations in NDVI were significantly correlated to daytime land surface temperature (LST) fluctuations; and the rate of post-fire green-up depended mainly on burn severity and the time of post-fire succession. The higher average NDVI values for the study period in the fire scars than in the unburned areas between 1950 and 2000 suggest that wildfires enhance post-fire greenness due to an increase in post-fire evergreen and deciduous species components
Alaska↗