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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Climate change and pulse migration: Intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Development of an IBI-based assessment of depressional wetlands in Maryland and Delaware

The hydrogeomorphic approach (HGM) of wetland assessment emphasizes functional components of wetlands such as water storage, transformation and cycling of elements, accumulation of sediments, and preservation of habitats. Many of the elements measured in HGM are physical rather than ecological or biological. The HGM approach, therefore, provides information on certain aspects of wetlands and omits other aspects. In contrast, the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) approach focuses on biological components of wetlands such as species richness, the presence or proportion of certain 'indicator' species, representation of different trophic levels, and measures of wildlife or fish health. Here too, some aspects of a wetland are omitted and others not covered by HGM are included. We contend that these differences in focus add strengths and weaknesses to each method. This paper reviews progress on the development of IBIs for restored depressional wetlands in the Mid-Atlantic States, especially Maryland and Delaware. During our first field season we identified 25 wetlands ranging from 1-10 acres, most of which were restored with federal, state, and private landowner cooperation over hydric soils. Separate IBIs are being created for macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, and data on mammal and avian populations are being collected. Simultaneously, chemical and physical data are being collected on water DO, turbidity, temperature, conductivity, nitrates, ammonia, chlorophyll, pH; soil metal levels and texture; and wetland size, configuration, hydrology, drainage area, and surrounding land use.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Disentangling drivers of annual grass invasion: Abiotic susceptibility vs. fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance in the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (greater than 15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass presence and dominance, conditional on burning. We combined predicted susceptibility with burn probability to quantify the 10-year total risk of cheatgrass dominance. Finally, we identified portions of the landscape (1) at risk of fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance, (2) consistently susceptible to cheatgrass dominance, or (3) consistently resistant to cheatgrass dominance. At the scale of the sagebrush biome, we found that abiotic susceptibility to cheatgrass dominance drives total risk, regardless of fire. At local scales (i.e., individual 30 m pixels), burning increased the probability of cheatgrass dominance by a median of 14 %. Threshold-based analyses indicate that 10–31 % of the sagebrush biome was at risk of fire-induced dominance, with 55 % exhibiting abiotic resistance and 5 % exhibiting abiotic susceptibility to dominance regardless of fire. Burn probability was higher in areas predicted to be susceptible to dominance, illustrating how cheatgrass invasion can cause ecosystem conversions that are then sustained by grass-fire cycles. Disentangling the influence of abiotic conditions and fire contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms driving invasion dynamics, and modeling the probability of dominance can help anticipate where ecological transformations are at risk of occurring. Our approach can facilitate the prioritization of management actions in the sagebrush biome and be used as a framework for modeling invasion risk in other disturbance-prone ecosystems.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

Minnesota↗
USGS2019

Assessing the ecological impacts of biomass harvesting along a disturbance severity gradient

Disturbance is a central driver of forest development and ecosystem processes with variable effects within and across ecosystems. Despite the high levels of variation in disturbance severity often observed in forests following natural and anthropogenic disturbance, studies quantifying disturbance impacts often rely on categorical classifications, thus limiting opportunities to examine potential gradients in ecosystem response to a given disturbance or management regime. Given the potential increases in disturbance severity associated with global change, as well as shifts in management regimes related to procurement of biofuel feedstocks, there is an increasing need to quantitatively describe disturbance severity and associated responses of forest development, soil processes, and structural conditions. This study took advantage of two, replicated large-scale studies of forest biomass harvesting in Populus tremuloides and Pinus bansksiana forests, respectively, to develop and test the utility of a continuous, quantitative index of disturbance severity (DSI) for describing post-harvest response of plant communities and nutrient pools to different levels of biomass removal and legacy retention (i.e., live trees and coarse woody material). There was a high-degree of variability in DSI within categorical treatments associated with different levels of legacy retention and regression models using DSI as a predictor explained a portion of the variation (>50%) for many of the ecosystem- and community-level responses to biomass harvesting examined. Nutrient losses associated with biomass harvesting were positively related to disturbance severity, particularly in P. tremuloides forests, with post-harvest nutrient availability generally declining along the gradient of impacts. Consistent with expectations from ecological theory, species richness and diversity of woody plant communities were greatest at intermediate disturbance severities and regeneration densities of dominant trees species most abundant at highest levels of disturbance. Although categorical benchmarks will continue to be the primary way through which management guidelines are conveyed to practitioners, evaluation of their effectiveness at sustaining ecosystem functioning should be through continuous analyses, such as the DSI approach used in this study, to allow for the identification of minimum benchmarks that ensure a range of desirable outcomes exist across managed landscapes.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Tennessee↗
USGS2016

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Idaho↗
USGS2015

Aerobic biodegradation potential of endocrine disrupting chemicals in surface-water sediment at Rocky Mountains National Park, USA

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) in surface water and bed sediment threaten the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. In natural, remote, and protected surface-water environments where contaminant releases are sporadic, contaminant biodegradation is a fundamental driver of exposure concentration, timing, duration, and, thus, EDC ecological risk. Anthropogenic contaminants, including known and suspected EDC, were detected in surface water and sediment collected from 2 streams and 2 lakes in Rocky Mountains National Park (ROMO). The potential for aerobic EDC biodegradation was assessed in collected sediments using 6 14 C-radiolabeled model compounds. Aerobic microbial mineralization of natural (estrone and 17β-estradiol) and synthetic (17α-ethinylestradiol) estrogen was significant at all sites. ROMO bed sediment microbial communities also effectively degraded the xenoestrogens, bisphenol-A and 4-nonylphenol. The same sediment samples exhibited little potential for aerobic biodegradation of triclocarban, however, illustrating the need to assess a wider range of contaminant compounds. The current results support recent concerns over the widespread environmental occurrence of carbanalide antibacterials, like triclocarban and triclosan, and suggest that backcountry use of products containing these compounds should be discouraged.

Rocky Mountain National Park↗
USGS2007

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands: Future research needs and an overview of restoration: Chapter 17

Studies of tidal freshwater forested wetlands are few in contrast to the diversity of conditions and information needs that exist for this ecosystem type. Basic information is lacking on the physiological ecology of major wetland tree species under natural settings, the structure and dynamics of pure and mixed species communities, soil-plant interactions, biogeochemistry, hydrology, soils, wildlife habitat, primary biotic and abiotic functions, and the response of these systems to natural and human-caused disruptions. Existing information is often not in a form that can be applied to ecosystem problems, especially those related to management, restoration, or creation of tidal swamps. Accordingly, there is a critical need for research on fundamental biotic and abiotic processes and functions in tidal forested wetland landscapes on a local and regional scale. In this chapter, we detail those research needs, and we highlight some restoration ideas for tidal freshwater forested wetlands with the hope that much additional research will follow.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction measures that may be of interest to resource managers are considered relative to emerging contaminants in treated effluents, interdependencies among biological resources at risk, and uses of reservoir waters derived from multiple inflows of widely varying qualities. ??2009 ASCE.

Nevada↗
USGS2016

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed-species colony

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in-depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black-crowned Night-Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video-monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3-year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model-averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24-h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night-Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed-species colony with Night-Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2-year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night-Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night-Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.

Ibis↗
USGS2014

Nutritional stress affects corticosterone deposition in feathers of Caspian tern chicks

Stressful environmental conditions affect the adrenocortical function of developing animals, which can have consequences for their fitness. Discovery of the avian stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in feathers has the potential to broaden the application of endocrine research in ecological and evolutionary studies of wild birds by providing a long-term measure of CORT secretion. Mechanisms of CORT deposition in feathers are not well known and few studies have related feather CORT to circulating plasma CORT during feather growth. Our objective was to experimentally test the validity of using feather CORT as a measure of CORT secretion in developing birds experiencing nutritional stress. Caspian tern Hydroprogne caspia chicks were fed ad libitum or restricted (35% less than ad libitum) diets for four weeks. We measured CORT in feathers from these chicks to examine the relationship between feather CORT concentrations and nutritional limitation, circulating plasma CORT, and feather development. We found that feather CORT was higher in controls fed ad libitum than in restricted individuals, despite higher levels of plasma CORT in restricted chicks compared to controls. Feather mass and growth rates were strongly and positively related to feather CORT concentrations in both treatments. This is the first experimental study to show that feather CORT concentrations can be lower in response to nutritional stress, even when plasma CORT concentrations are elevated. Our results indicate that CORT deposition in feathers may be confounded when feather mass and growth rates are compromised by nutritional stress. We conclude that feather CORT can be used for assessing nutritional stress in growing birds, but the direction of response depends on how strongly stress affects feather development.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2021

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of four marsh management units within the refuge, totaling about 13 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to $ 1,000, and may continue to increase at a lower rate with further expenditures. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than or equal to $ 1,000 included improving nesting habitat for Ammodramus nelsoni (Nelson’s sparrow) or restoring hydrologic connections to the upper marsh in one marsh management unit (Hobart Stream West). The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in the density of nekton and of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health). The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated for implementation as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Maine↗
USGS2021

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges, Virginia, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges in Virginia. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of six marsh management units within the refuges, totaling about 575 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to approximately $ 143,000, but that further expenditures may yield diminishing return on investment. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than $ 143,000 included digging runnels by hand to improve drainage from the marsh surface, breaching a road to restore natural hydrology, trapping predators to enhance nest success of tidal marsh birds, and reducing the abundance of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) to minimize their effects on marsh vegetation. The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in number of tidal marsh obligate breeding birds, species richness of nekton, and density of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health); and an expected decrease in duration of surface flooding. The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuges.

Virginia↗
USGS2002

Rangeland health attributes and indicators for qualitative assessment

Panels of experts from the Society for Range Management and the National Research Council proposed that status of rangeland ecosystems could be ascertained by evaluating an ecological site's potential to conserve soil resources and by a series of indicators for ecosystem processes and site stability. Using these recommendations as a starting point, we developed a rapid, qualitative method for assessing a moment-in-time status of rangelands. Evaluators rate 17 indicators to assess 3 ecosystem attributes (soil and site stability, hydrologic function, and biotic integrity) for a given location. Indicators include rills, water flow patterns, pedestals and terracettes, bare ground, gullies, wind scour and depositional areas, litter movement, soil resistance to erosion, soil surface loss or degradation, plant composition relative to infiltration, soil compaction, plant functional/structural groups, plant mortality, litter amount, annual production, invasive plants, and reproductive capability. In this paper, we detail the development and evolution of the technique and introduce a modified ecological reference worksheet that documents the expected presence and amount of each indicator on the ecological site. In addition, we review the intended applications for this technique and clarify the differences between assessment and monitoring that lead us to recommend this technique be used for moment-in-time assessments and not be used for temporal monitoring of rangeland status. Lastly, we propose a mechanism for adapting and modifying this technique to reflect improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes. We support the need for quantitative measures for monitoring rangeland health and propose some measures that we believe may address some of the 17 indicators.

Journal of Range Management↗
USGS2018

Novel ecological and climatic conditions drive rapid adaptation in invasive Florida Burmese pythons

Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genome‐wide adaptation on short ‘ecological’ timescales. Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behavior, and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic datasets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures have driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often‐overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗
USGS2018

Consequences of gas flux model choice on the interpretation of metabolic balance across 15 lakes

Ecosystem metabolism and the contribution of carbon dioxide from lakes to the atmosphere can be estimated from free-water gas measurements through the use of mass balance models, which rely on a gas transfer coefficient ( k ) to model gas exchange with the atmosphere. Theoretical and empirically based models of k range in complexity from wind-driven power functions to complex surface renewal models; however, model choice is rarely considered in most studies of lake metabolism. This study used high-frequency data from 15 lakes provided by the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) to study how model choice of k influenced estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere. We tested 6 models of k on lakes chosen to span broad gradients in surface area and trophic states; a metabolism model was then fit to all 6 outputs of k data. We found that hourly values for k were substantially different between models and, at an annual scale, resulted in significantly different estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere.

Inland Waters↗