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USGS2005

Stream acidification and mortality of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in response to timber harvest in Catskill Mountain watersheds, New York, USA

Effects of clear-cut and timber-stand improvement (TSI) harvests on water chemistry and mortality of caged brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) were evaluated in a study of three Catskill Mountain streams, 1994-2000. Harvests removed 73% of tree basal area (BA) from a clearcut subbasin, 5% BA from a TSI subbasin, and 14% BA at a site below the confluence of both streams. A fourth nonharvested site served as a control. Water quality and trout mortality were affected only in the clearcut stream. Acidity and concentrations of nitrate and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Alim) increased sharply during high flows after the first growing season (fall 1997). Acid-Alim episodes were severe during this period and decreased steadily in magnitude and duration thereafter. All trout at this site died within 7 days during spring 1998 and 85% died during spring 1999. Only background mortality was observed in other years at this site and at the other three sites during all tests. The absence of mortality in TSI watersheds indicates that limited harvests should not harm brook trout populations in acid-sensitive streams. Effects of tree harvests on fish communities are of concern, however, because many stream-dwelling species are more sensitive to acidified waters than brook trout. ?? 2005 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2020

Deep-sea coral and sponge taxa increase demersal fish diversity and the probability of fish presence

Fishes are known to use deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) species as habitat, but it is uncertain whether this relationship is facultative (circumstantial and not restricted to a particular function) or obligate (necessary to sustain fish populations). To explore whether DSCS provide essential habitats for demersal fishes, we analyzed 10 years of submersible survey video transect data, documenting the locations and abundance of DSCS and demersal fishes in the Southern California Bight (SCB). We first classified the different habitats in which fishes and DSCS taxa occurred using cluster analysis, which revealed four distinct DSCS assemblages based on depth and substratum. We then used logistic regression and gradient forest analysis to identify the ecological correlates most associated with the presence of rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.) and biodiversity. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the factors most related to the presence of rockfishes were depth, coral height, and the abundance of a few key DSCS taxa. Of particular interest, we found that young-of-the-year rockfishes were more likely to be present in locations with taller coral and increased densities of Plumarella longispina , Lophelia pertusa , and two sponge taxa. This suggests these DSCS taxa may serve as important rearing habitat for rockfishes. Similarly, the gradient forest analysis found the most important ecological correlates for fish biodiversity were depth, coral cover, coral height, and a subset of DSCS taxa. Of the 10 top-ranked DSCS taxa in the gradient forest (out of 39 potential DSCS taxa), 6 also were associated with increased probability of fish presence in the logistic regression. The weight of evidence from these multiple analytical methods suggests that this subset of DSCS taxa are important fish habitats. In this paper we describe methods to characterize demersal communities and highlight which DSCS taxa provide habitat to demersal fishes, which is valuable information to fisheries agencies tasked to manage these fishes and their essential habitats.

California↗

USGS2022

Workshops report for mesophotic and deep benthic community fish, mobile invertebrates, sessile invertebrates and infauna

Two workshops with subject matter experts in the appropriate fields, were held in November and December 2021 to elicit guidance and feedback from the broader mesophotic and deep benthic scientific community. These workshops focused on best practices/approaches and identifying data gaps relative to habitat assessment and evaluation goals of the Mesophotic and Deep Benthic Community (MDBC) restoration portfolio. The first workshop was a combined effort of the Habitat Assessment and Evaluation (HAE) Project Team and the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Program. Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc) provided extensive workshop planning, organizing, execution, and facilitation support during all stages of the workshop. Based on a questionnaire sent to scientists in August, 2021, the workshop focused on fish and mobile invertebrate habitat associations, abundance trends, community metrics, and food web functionality. Topical presentations and discussions focused not only on demersal fish and mobile invertebrates that are directly associated with mesophotic and deep benthic habitats, but also considered water column species and communities that benefit from these habitats more broadly. The second workshop, intended to complement the first workshop, focused on identifying best practices and critical information gaps for key community metrics, larval dispersal modeling, connectivity, effects and variability of environmental parameters, and recovery trajectories of corals, infauna, and other sessile invertebrates. Through literature review, internal HAE scientists considered these topics to be critical for restoration success. Products from the literature review included topical summaries (see Appendix B) that summarized the current state-of-the-science and provided the framework for the workshop. Information generated from the workshops will assist the MDBC HAE Project, and more broadly the DWH Program, identify data gaps and develop a suite of best practices for restoration activities.

DWH MDBC Summary Report↗

USGS2025

Pesticide contamination detected across five wildlife refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California

An important goal for the applied ecological sciences is to understand the extent to which the biodiversity on conserved or managed lands is exposed to anthropogenic stressors. Among the various categories of conserved lands in the United States, the National Wildlife Refuge System is focused on the protection and management of native wildlife and plant populations. Refuge lands can be associated with wetlands and, especially in California, tend to be near areas of intense human use, including agriculture. The proximity of refuges to cultivated lands results in potential exposure to pesticide drift, which increases the possibility of non-target effects on plants and wildlife. We used a passive sampler approach to quantify aerial pesticide deposition during 28 days in spring of 2023, across five refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California. Pesticides were detected across all refuges and plots within the study area, with 36 individual compounds identified, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, from 176 silicone bands from 49 plots. Distance to agriculture was not an important predictor in our models for most indices of contamination. However, our models revealed that the nearest crop type was an important mediator of the importance of distance to agriculture, as fungicide contamination decreased with distance to agriculture only when orchards were the nearest crop type. The overall lack of distance effects suggests that the interior of refuges in the study area do not necessarily provide more protection from pesticides than refuge edges, although larger refuges could offer more protection. We currently lack information on how the level of contamination found herein is biologically relevant to wildlife, and ongoing monitoring efforts have found productive communities of insects in the study area. The results of this study provide a foundation for future investigations on refuges to analyze impacts of specific pesticide compounds on plants and wildlife.

California↗

USGS1992

The Galileo Solid-State Imaging experiment

The Solid State Imaging (SSI) experiment on the Galileo Orbiter spacecraft utilizes a high-resolution (1500 mm focal length) television camera with an 800 ?? 800 pixel virtual-phase, charge-coupled detector. It is designed to return images of Jupiter and its satellites that are characterized by a combination of sensitivity levels, spatial resolution, geometric fiedelity, and spectral range unmatched by imaging data obtained previously. The spectral range extends from approximately 375 to 1100 nm and only in the near ultra-violet region (??? 350 nm) is the spectral coverage reduced from previous missions. The camera is approximately 100 times more sensitive than those used in the Voyager mission, and, because of the nature of the satellite encounters, will produce images with approximately 100 times the ground resolution (i.e., ??? 50 m lp-1) on the Galilean satellites. We describe aspects of the detector including its sensitivity to energetic particle radiation and how the requirements for a large full-well capacity and long-term stability in operating voltages led to the choice of the virtual phase chip. The F/8.5 camera system can reach point sources of V(mag) ??? 11 with S/N ??? 10 and extended sources with surface brightness as low as 20 kR in its highest gain state and longest exposure mode. We describe the performance of the system as determined by ground calibration and the improvements that have been made to the telescope (same basic catadioptric design that was used in Mariner 10 and the Voyager high-resolution cameras) to reduce the scattered light reaching the detector. The images are linearly digitized 8-bits deep and, after flat-fielding, are cosmetically clean. Information 'preserving' and 'non-preserving' on-board data compression capabilities are outlined. A special "summation" mode, designed for use deep in the Jovian radiation belts, near Io, is also described. The detector is 'preflashed' before each exposure to ensure the photometric linearity. The dynamic range is spread over 3 gain states and an exposure range from 4.17 ms to 51.2 s. A low-level of radial, third-order, geometric distortion has been measured in the raw images that is entirely due to the optical design. The distortion is of the pincushion type and amounts to about 1.2 pixels in the corners of the images. It is expected to be very stable. We discuss the measurement objectives of the SSI experiment in the Jupiter system and emphasize their relationships to those of other experiments in the Galileo project. We outline objectives for Jupiter atmospheric science, noting the relationship of SSI data to that to be returned by experiments on the atmospheric entry Probe. We also outline SSI objectives for satellite surfaces, ring structure, and 'darkside' (e.g., aurorae, lightning, etc.) experiments. Proposed cruise measurement objectives that relate to encounters at Venus, Moon, Earth, Gaspra, and, possibly, Ida are also briefly outlined. The article concludes with a description of a 'fully distributed' data analysis system (HIIPS) that SSI team members intend to use at their home institutions. We also list the nature of systematic data products that will become available to the scientific community. Finally, we append a short 'historical' note outlining the responsibilities and roles of institutions and individuals that have been involved in the 14 year development of the SSI experiment so far. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Space Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

A meta-analysis of mercury biomagnification in freshwater predatory invertebrates: Community diversity and dietary exposure drive variability

Accurate estimates of methylmercury (MeHg) exposure are valuable to actionably assess risk and protect wildlife and human health. MeHg trophic transfer is a critical driver of risk: MeHg is generally biomagnified by a factor of 8.3 ± 7.5 from one trophic level to the next, averaged across freshwater communities (mean ± standard deviation). This variability can produce disparate risks even where basal MeHg concentrations are similar. Taxonomy may be one driver of this variability: physiologically diverse groups, like vertebrates and invertebrates, may assimilate MeHg differently. To determine whether taxonomy affects trophic transfer efficiency, we conducted a meta-analysis characterizing predatory invertebrate MeHg biomagnification. Our analyses estimated that freshwater predatory invertebrates biomagnify MeHg by factors of 2.1 ± 0.2 to 4.3 ± 0.3, with a 98.9 ± 0.4% posterior probability that factors are below 5 (mean ± standard error). When vertebrates or primary producers were included, a site’s trophic magnification factor was 18.6 ± 6.2 to 54.1 ± 7.7% higher than estimates for invertebrates alone. Biomagnification was inversely correlated to prey MeHg concentration and varied among systematic and functional groups. These data suggest that predatory invertebrates biomagnify MeHg less efficiently than vertebrates and that a community’s diversity and structure determine its biomagnification efficiency. Incorporating organismal variation in trophic transfer estimates may improve the assessment, communication, and management of MeHg risk.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

The geomagnetic blitz of September 1941

Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather .

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2013

Woody vegetation communities of tidal freshwater swamps in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida (US) with comparisons to similar systems in the US and South America

Questions What are the general tree communities found in tidal freshwater swamps along four large coastal rivers in the southeastern United States (US)? How do these communities compare to other tidal freshwater swamps in the US and South America? Locations Tidal floodplains of major rivers along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the southeastern US: Savannah, Altamaha, Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers. Methods An extensive survey of trees and shrubs was conducted to describe the communities from a range of tidal freshwater swamps. River basins studied include micro-tidal (Gulf coast) and meso-tidal (Atlantic coast) regimes, and study areas were located both near and distant to primary channels. A total of 128 plots (100 m2 each) were inventoried, distributed evenly over the Savannah and Altamaha Rivers along the Atlantic coast, and the Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers along the Gulf coast. Multivariate statistics helped discern communities and the significant indicator species in each. Results Four general communities were characterized and named according to the strongest individual indicator species in each: Water Tupelo (Nyssa aquatica) Community, Swamp Tupelo (Nyssa biflora) Community, Dwarf Palmetto (Sabal minor) Community and Cabbage Palm (Sabal palmetto) Community. Conclusions Descriptions of most tidal freshwater swamps in the southeastern US fit within the communities described in this study. Because studies that make inferences between environmental drivers (e.g. salinity, hydroperiod, hurricanes) and specific community types are best applied to the same communities (but perhaps different river systems), this work provides a framework by which tidal freshwater forested wetlands can be accurately compared based on their tree communities. We suggest that, within the broad range of our inventories, the four communities described identify the primary associations that should be tracked within most tidal freshwater swamps of the US. However, we identify some river basins in the US that do not fit this construct. Diversity of major tree communities in tidal freshwater swamps outside the US is generally much lower (with the notable exception of Amazonian hardwood tidal várzea), as are basal area values.

Georgia;Florida;South Carolina↗

USGS2026

Forest canopy decline under elevated CO2 during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of rapid anthropogenic warming on forest ecosystem structure, biodiversity, and function. As an analog, we reconstruct forest canopy density and compositional change in Wyoming, USA, through the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an interval of abrupt carbon increase and warming ~56 million years ago. We develop a proxy to quantify leaf area index and assess shifts in floral composition using palynomorphs. Forest canopies opened abruptly at onset of PETM warming, landscape erosion increased, and vegetation shifted from broad-leaved angiosperm to fern- and palm-dominated ecosystems. When combined with regional data, these patterns suggest that continental-scale changes in plant communities cause landscape destabilization. These shifts also have implications for multimillennial-scale hydrologic and carbon cycle feedbacks in the climate system.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database

During the coming decades, coastlines will respond to widely predicted sea-level rise, storm surge, and coastalinundation flooding from disastrous events. Because physical processes in coastal environments are controlled by the geomorphology of over-the-land topography and underwater bathymetry, many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require detailed knowledge of the near-shore topography and bathymetry. In this paper, an updated methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project is presented for developing coastal topobathymetric elevation models (TBDEMs) from multiple topographic data sources with adjacent intertidal topobathymetric and offshore bathymetric sources to generate seamlessly integrated TBDEMs. This repeatable, updatable, and logically consistent methodology assimilates topographic data (land elevation) and bathymetry (water depth) into a seamless coastal elevation model. Within the overarching framework, vertical datum transformations are standardized in a workflow that interweaves spatially consistent interpolation (gridding) techniques with a land/water boundary mask delineation approach. Output gridded raster TBDEMs are stacked into a file storage system of mosaic datasets within an Esri ArcGIS geodatabase for efficient updating while maintaining current and updated spatially referenced metadata. Topobathymetric data provide a required seamless elevation product for several science application studies, such as shoreline delineation, coastal inundation mapping, sediment-transport, sea-level rise, storm surge models, and tsunami impact assessment. These detailed coastal elevation data are critical to depict regions prone to climate change impacts and are essential to planners and managers responsible for mitigating the associated risks and costs to both human communities and ecosystems. The CoNED methodology approach has been used to construct integrated TBDEM models in Mobile Bay, the northern Gulf of Mexico, San Francisco Bay, the Hurricane Sandy region, and southern California.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2001

A parallel-processing approach to computing for the geographic sciences

The overarching goal of this project is to build a spatially distributed infrastructure for information science research by forming a team of information science researchers and providing them with similar hardware and software tools to perform collaborative research. Four geographically distributed Centers of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are developing their own clusters of low-cost personal computers into parallel computing environments that provide a costeffective way for the USGS to increase participation in the high-performance computing community. Referred to as Beowulf clusters, these hybrid systems provide the robust computing power required for conducting research into various areas, such as advanced computer architecture, algorithms to meet the processing needs for real-time image and data processing, the creation of custom datasets from seamless source data, rapid turn-around of products for emergency response, and support for computationally intense spatial and temporal modeling.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Bivalve grazing can shape phytoplankton communities

The ability of bivalve filter feeders to limit phytoplankton biomass in shallow waters is well-documented, but the role of bivalves in shaping phytoplankton communities is not. The coupled effect of bivalve grazing at the sediment-water interface and sinking of phytoplankton cells to that bottom filtration zone could influence the relative biomass of sinking (diatoms) and non-sinking phytoplankton. Simulations with a pseudo-2D numerical model showed that benthic filter feeding can interact with sinking to alter diatom:non-diatom ratios. Cases with the smallest proportion of diatom biomass were those with the fastest sinking speeds and strongest bivalve grazing rates. Hydrodynamics modulated the coupled sinking-grazing influence on phytoplankton communities. For example, in simulations with persistent stratification, the non-sinking forms accumulated in the surface layer away from bottom grazers while the sinking forms dropped out of the surface layer toward bottom grazers. Tidal-scale stratification also influenced vertical gradients of the two groups in opposite ways. The model was applied to Suisun Bay, a low-salinity habitat of the San Francisco Bay system that was transformed by the introduction of the exotic clam Potamocorbula amurensis . Simulation results for this Bay were similar to (but more muted than) those for generic habitats, indicating that P. amurensis grazing could have caused a disproportionate loss of diatoms after its introduction. Our model simulations suggest bivalve grazing affects both phytoplankton biomass and community composition in shallow waters. We view these results as hypotheses to be tested with experiments and more complex modeling approaches.

California↗

USGS2019

A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON)

The General Lake Model (GLM) is a one-dimensional open-source code designed to simulate the hydrodynamics of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands. GLM was developed to support the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of researchers using sensors to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world respond to climate and land use change. The scale and diversity of lake types, locations, and sizes, and the expanding observational datasets created the need for a robust community model of lake dynamics with sufficient flexibility to accommodate a range of scientific and management questions relevant to the GLEON community. This paper summarizes the scientific basis and numerical implementation of the model algorithms, including details of sub-models that simulate surface heat exchange and ice cover dynamics, vertical mixing, and inflow–outflow dynamics. We demonstrate the suitability of the model for different lake types that vary substantially in their morphology, hydrology, and climatic conditions. GLM supports a dynamic coupling with biogeochemical and ecological modelling libraries for integrated simulations of water quality and ecosystem health, and options for integration with other environmental models are outlined. Finally, we discuss utilities for the analysis of model outputs and uncertainty assessments, model operation within a distributed cloud-computing environment, and as a tool to support the learning of network participants.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2024

Interdisciplinary science approach for harmful algal blooms (HABs) and algal toxins—A strategic science vision for the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Algal blooms in water, soils, dusts, and the environment have captured national attention because of concerns associated with exposure to algal toxins for humans and animals. Algal blooms naturally occur in all surface-water types and are important primary producers for aquatic ecosystems. However, excessive algae growth can be associated with many harmful effects ranging from aesthetic to toxicity concerns, so this excessive growth is commonly called a harmful algal bloom (HAB). Ecological imbalances that can lead to excessive algal growth, such as increased nutrient availability to waterbodies from natural and anthropogenic sources, are well documented in scientific literature. On the other hand, fundamental scientific understandings of environmental causes and controls leading to algal toxin production, environmental exposures, and adverse health outcomes for humans and animals could benefit from more attention by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists. Understanding when, why, and how the toxin is produced by individual algal cells or communities and why the toxin is released to the surrounding waterbody requires fundamental research to determine a toxin’s role, whether it provides competitive advantage or if other potential reasons exist for toxin production and release, such as secretions from otherwise benign biological processes. This research will require groundbreaking scientific discovery about underlying biologic and abiotic (non-living) processes commonly complicated by local variation in land use, microbial species composition, and ecosystem structure of the surrounding watershed. Although underlying processes by which HABs form may be similar from one waterbody to another, individual waterbodies may be controlled by local factors for HAB development and toxin production that are unique to the watershed. Consequently, many fundamental science gaps exist that prevent informed mitigation and prevention of toxic HAB events. There are also gaps in understanding local conditions that control algal growth unique to specific watersheds. Addressing these science gaps is needed to inform evidence-based decisions that protect human and animal health and that reduce recreational and socioeconomic losses.

Circular↗

USGS2013

Ecosystem stressors in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada ecosystems and their associated resources are subject to a number of global and regional/local stressors that are affecting the sustainability of the region. Global stressors include elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and associated changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and amount, solar radiation, and nutrient cycles (Smith and others 2009b). Global stressors are ubiquitous in nature and interact both directly and indirectly with regional or local stressors. Regional/local stressors in southern Nevada include: population growth and urbanization and associated increases in nitrogen deposition, energy development, water development, and recreation; increased effects of insects and disease; ongoing effects of livestock, wild horse and burro grazing; new and expanding invasive species; and altered fire regimes. This chapter provides background information on the stressors affecting southern Nevada's ecosystems that is needed to address Goal 1.0 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy, which is to restore, sustain, and enhance southern Nevada's ecosystems (Turner and others 2009). Human population growth and changes in land use strongly affect the type and magnitude of local/regional stressors. From 1960 to 2010, Nevada's growth rate was the highest in the nation (www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf). Clark County has experienced particularly high growth, with a population increase of greater than 40 percent since the 2000 census. Factors like land ownership, historic and current land use, proximity to human and energy developments, and desirability for recreation all influence the level of human-caused stress. The strong elevation/climate gradients and large difference in the environmental characteristics of southern Nevada ecosystems (fig. 1.2; Chapter 1) have a major influence on both patterns of land use and the dominant stressors for different ecosystem types. Shifts in land use related to population growth, urbanization, and energy development and largely focused in lower elevation ecosystems including sagebursh, blackbrush and shadscale, and Mojave Desert scrub. Water divisions influence riparian/aquatic ecosystems and springs, while groundwater pumping also has the potential to affect ecosystems that characterize lower valleys including Mojave Desert scrub. Recreational uses influence all ecosystems, and wild horse and burro use and livestock grazing affect all but alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Insects and disease, as well as invasive species are widespread stressors. Fire is limited to ecosystems with sufficient fuels to carry fire and is strongly influence by invasive species in lower elevation Mojave Desert scrub, blackbrush and shadscale, and sagebursh ecosystems. This chapter address aspects of several of the Goals and Sub-goals listed in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). Altered fire regimes, invasive species, land use practices, and management actions are addressed in Goal 1 -- Sustain, Restore, and Enhance Southern Nevada's Ecosystems. The effects of these stressors on sensitive species and habitat are specifically addressed in Sub-goal 1.4 -- Sustain and Enhance Southern Nevada's Biotic Communities, to Preserve Biodiversity and Maintain Populations. Anthropogenic factors, such a recreation and urbanization, are referred to in Goal 2-- Provide for Responsible Use of Southern Nevada;s Lands in a Manner that Preserve Heritage Resources and Promotes an Understanding of Human Interaction with the Landscape.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a previously published brGDGT record from Silver Lake, Ohio, using improved chromatographic methods. All pollen- and brGDGT-based temperature reconstructions showed qualitatively similar deglacial trends but varying magnitudes. Separating 5- and 6- methyl brGDGTs resulted in substantially lower estimates of deglacial temperature variations (6.4 °C) than inferred from earlier brGDGT methods and pollen (11.8 °C, 12.0 °C respectively). Similar trends among proxies suggest good fidelity of brGDGTs to temperature, despite calibration uncertainties. At both sites, the rise and decline of no-analog communities closely track brGDGT-inferred temperatures, with a lag of 0 to 150 years. The timing of temperature and ecological events varies between Bonnet and Silver Lakes, likely due to age model uncertainties. Climate sensitivity analyses indicate a linear sensitivity of vegetation composition to temperature variations, albeit noisy and significant only with a 500-year bin. The formation of no-analog plant communities in the upper Midwest is closely linked to late-glacial warming, but other factors, such as temperature seasonality or end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, remain viable.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2021

Multi-region assessment of chemical mixture exposures and predicted cumulative effects in USA wadeable urban/agriculture-gradient streams

Chemical-contaminant mixtures are widely reported in large stream reaches in urban/agriculture-developed watersheds, but mixture compositions and aggregate biological effects are less well understood in corresponding smaller headwaters , which comprise most of stream length, riparian connectivity, and spatial biodiversity. During 2014–2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured 389 unique organic analytes (pharmaceutical, pesticide, organic wastewater indicators) in 305 headwater streams within four contiguous United States (US) regions. Potential aquatic biological effects were evaluated for estimated maximum and median exposure conditions using multiple lines of evidence, including occurrence/concentrations of designed-bioactive pesticides and pharmaceuticals and cumulative risk screening based on vertebrate-centric ToxCast™ exposure-response data and on invertebrate and nonvascular plant aquatic life benchmarks. Mixed-contaminant exposures were ubiquitous and varied, with 78% (304) of analytes detected at least once and cumulative maximum concentrations up to more than 156,000 ng/L. Designed bioactives represented 83% of detected analytes. Contaminant summary metrics correlated strong-positive (rho (ρ): 0.569–0.719) to multiple watershed-development metrics, only weak-positive to point-source discharges (ρ: 0.225–353), and moderate- to strong-negative with multiple instream invertebrate metrics (ρ: −0.373 to −0.652). Risk screening indicated common exposures with high probability of vertebrate-centric molecular effects and of acute toxicity to invertebrates, respectively. The results confirm exposures to broad and diverse contaminant mixtures and provide convincing multiple lines of evidence that chemical contaminants contribute substantially to adverse multi-stressor effects in headwater-stream communities.

Science of the Total Environment↗