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USGS2016

Pockmark asymmetry and seafloor currents in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil

Pockmarks form by gas/fluid expulsion into the ocean and are preserved under conditions of negligible sedimentation. Ideally, they are circular at the seafloor and symmetrical in profile. Elliptical pockmarks are more enigmatic. They are associated with seafloor currents while asymmetry is connected to sedimentation patterns. This study examines these associations through morphological analysis of new multibeam data collected across the Santos continental slope offshore Brazil in 2011 (353–865 mbsl). Of 984 pockmarks, 78% are both elliptical and asymmetric. Geometric criteria divide the pockmarks into three depth ranges that correlate with a transition between two currents: the Brazil Current transfers Tropical Water and South Atlantic Central Water southwestwards while the Intermediate Western Boundary Current transfers Antarctic Intermediate Water northeastwards. It is suggested that the velocity of seafloor currents and their persistence dictate pockmark ellipticity, orientation and profile asymmetry. Fast currents (>20 cm/s) are capable of maintaining pockmark flank steepness close to the angle of repose. These morphological expressions present direct evidence for an edge effect of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and, in general, provide a correlation between pockmark geometry and seafloor currents that can be applied at other locations worldwide.

Santos Basin↗

USGS2003

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2013

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2014

El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred simultaneously with different global atmospheric circulations. This study examines the atmospheric circulation and precipitation during December–March 1950–2010 over the African Continent south of 15° ∘ "> S, a region hereafter known as Southern Africa, associated with eight tropical Pacific SST expressions characteristic of El Niño and La Niña events. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate the SST expressions of El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal precipitation forcing over Southern Africa associated with the eight SST expressions was investigated in terms of the horizontal winds, moisture budget and vertical motion. El Niño events, with warm SST across the east and central Pacific Ocean and warmer than average SST over the Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation reductions over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation reductions are forced primarily by large-scale mid-tropospheric subsidence associated with anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere. El Niño events with cooler than average SST over the Indian Ocean are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa associated with lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation and mid-tropospheric ascent. La Niña events, with cool SST anomalies over the central Pacific and warm SST over the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation increases are forced primarily by lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation, resulting in mid-tropospheric ascent and an increased flux of moisture into the region.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2003

Avian fruit preferences across a Puerto Rican forested landscape: Pattern consistency and implications for seed removal

Avian fruit consumption may ensure plant reproductive success when frugivores show consistent preference patterns and effectively remove and disperse seeds. In this study we examined avian fruit preferences and their seed-removal services at five study sites in north-central Puerto Rico. At each site, we documented the diet of seven common fruit-eating avian species from February to September 1998. Using foraging observations and area-based estimates of fruit abundance, we examined preference patterns of birds. We found that 7 out of 68 fleshy-fruited plant species were responsible for most of the fruit diet of birds. Seventeen plant species were preferred and four of them were repeatedly preferred across several study sites and times by at least one avian species. Preferred plant species comprised a small percentage of fleshy fruits at each site (<15% in four out of five study sites), but showed extended phenology patterns. The quantity of seeds removed by frugivore species was not strictly related to preferences. Some frugivores showing no preference could effectively remove more seeds from plants at some locations than species exhibiting constancy in their patterns of preference. Only two frugivores, Euphonia musica and Vireo altiloquous, removed most of the seeds of plants for which they exhibited repeated preference across the landscape. Preference patterns, particularly those exhibiting consistency in space and time for plant species having prolonged fruiting periods, may have important mechanistic consequences for the persistence, succession, and regeneration of tropical plant communities.

Oecologia↗

USGS2021

Sap flow evidence of chilling injury and recovery in mangroves following a spring cold spell

Mangroves are periodically influenced in negative ways by non-freezing temperatures across their global sub-tropical range. However, physiological and morphological evidence of chilling influences to non-freezing chilling events has not been measured in field settings. In this study, we measured sap flow ( J s ) during such a chilling (but non-freezing) event in southern China and documented the reductions in J s and the recovery that ensued. We calculated tree water use (TWU) from J s measurements taken from thermal dissipation sap flow sensors on two mangrove species ( Sonneratia apetala and S. caseolaris ). This chilling event significantly injured the mangrove trees in the form of leaf scorch and massive defoliation. Diurnal variations of stem J s of both species were altered significantly after chilling. On the day of the chilling event, J s of S. caseolaris was reduced from the daily maximum of 44.1 g H 2 O m −2 s −1 to 0 immediately after chilling, which lasted throughout the remainder of the day. In contrast, S. apetala showed a certain low-temperature tolerance, while still maintaining an adequate transpiration rate after chilling, indicative of a more resilient hydraulic transport system to low temperatures. The sap flow data collected revealed substantial evidence for acute water conservation during low-temperature events, perhaps ameliorating low-temperature damage. Hence, the responses of some mangrove species with high sensitivity to low, but non-freezing, temperature (such as S. caseolaris ) may indicate that mangroves possess adaptive whole-tree strategies to cold temperature.

Trees: Structure and Function↗

USGS2000

Suspended-sediment and fresh-water discharges in the Ob and Yenisey rivers, 1960-1988

Of the world's great rivers, the Ob and Yenisey rank among the largest suppliers of fresh water and among the smallest suppliers of suspended sediment to the coastal ocean. Sediment in the middle reaches of the rivers is mobilized from bordering terraces and exchanged between channels and flood plains. Sediment in the lower reaches of these great rivers is deposited and stored (permanently, on a millennial time scale) in flood plains. Sediment discharges, already small under natural conditions, are diminished further by large manmade reservoirs that trap significant proportions of the moving solids. The long winter freeze and sudden spring breakup impose a peakedness in seasonal water runoff and sediment discharge that contrasts markedly with that in rivers of the tropics and more temperate climates. Very little sediment from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is being transported to the open waters of the Arctic Ocean under present conditions.

Arctic Ocean, Gulf of Ob, Irtysh River, Ob River, ↗

USGS2012

Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

Northern Hemisphere↗

USGS2020

Changes in ecosystem nitrogen and carbon allocation with black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) encroachment into Spartina alterniflora salt marsh

Increases in temperature are expected to facilitate encroachment of tropical mangrove forests into temperate salt marshes, yet the effects on ecosystem services are understudied. Our work was conducted along a mangrove expansion front in Louisiana (USA), an area where coastal wetlands are in rapid decline due to compounding factors, including reduced sediment supply, rising sea level, and subsidence. Marsh and mangrove ecosystems are each known for their ability to adjust to sea-level rise and support numerous ecosystem services, but there are some differences in the societal benefits they provide. Here, we compare carbon and nitrogen stocks and relate these findings to the expected effects of mangrove encroachment on nitrogen filtration and carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands. We specifically evaluate the implications of black mangrove ( Avicennia germinans ) encroachment into Spartina alterniflora -dominated salt marsh. Our results indicate that black mangrove encroachment will lead to increased aboveground carbon and nitrogen stocks. However, we found no differences in belowground (that is, root and sediment) nitrogen or carbon stocks between marshes and mangroves. Thus, the shift from marsh to mangrove may provide decadal-scale increases in aboveground nitrogen and carbon sequestration, but belowground nitrogen and carbon sequestration (that is, carbon burial) may not be affected. We measured lower pore water nitrogen content beneath growing mangroves, which we postulate may be due to greater nitrogen uptake and storage in mangrove aboveground compartments compared to marshes. However, further studies are needed to better characterize the implications of mangrove encroachment on nitrogen cycling, storage, and export to the coastal ocean.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

Integrating remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify the effects of an extreme freeze event on black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the landscape scale

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from an extreme climatic event. We used ground- and satellite-based black mangrove ( Avicennia germinans ) leaf damage data from the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA and Mexico) to examine the effects of an extreme freeze in a region where black mangroves are expanding their range. The February 2021 event produced coastal temperatures as low as − 10 °C in some areas, exceeding thresholds for A. germinans damage and mortality. We used Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data to assess vegetation greenness before and after the freeze, along with ground-based observations of A. germinans leaf damage. Our results show a negative, nonlinear threshold relationship between A. germinans leaf damage and minimum temperature, with a temperature threshold for leaf damage near − 6 °C. Satellite-based analyses indicate that, at the landscape scale, damage was particularly severe along the central Texas coast, where the freeze event affected > 2000 ha of A. germinans -dominated coastal wetlands. Our analyses highlight the value of pairing remotely sensed data with regional, ground-based observations for quantifying and extrapolating the effects of extreme freeze events on mangroves and other tropical, cold-sensitive plants. The results also demonstrate how extreme freeze events govern the expansion and contraction of mangroves near northern range limits in North America.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2025

Variation in soil organic carbon across a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove poleward expansion

The critical carbon sink provided by coastal wetlands, known as blue carbon, can be affected by multiple aspects of climate change. One important example is warming-induced mangrove poleward expansion, which is shifting dominant plant cover across tropical–temperate transitional zones and altering ecosystem structure and function. We examined how mangrove expansion affects soil organic carbon (SOC) quantity and source, using measurements of SOC density and isotopic signatures (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) at 15 sites across Florida’s west coast (USA). The sampled sites represent examples of three expansion stages: a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove expansion, spanning mature mangroves in the south, former ecotones at mid latitudes, and current ecotones in the north. Our analyses of soil core data indicate that mangrove expansion stage is a significant predictor of SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N, but not C:N ratio. Current ecotones exhibited significantly lower SOC density but higher δ 13 C, suggesting a greater contribution of preexisting C 4 salt marshes, while no difference was found between former ecotones and mature mangroves. SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N were found to vary with mangrove aboveground biomass, stage, and sedimentary setting along the latitudinal gradient. For all three mangrove expansion stages, SOC density decreased with depth, but δ 13 C showed no vertical trend, suggesting that mangroves contributed organic carbon to the entire 20-cm soil profile. The observed regional trend of SOC across mangrove expansion stages highlights the ecological impacts of warming-driven vegetation shifts in coastal wetlands, though further evidence is needed to determine the primary drivers and mechanisms, while also considering local and regional environmental factors.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Hydrogeology of an alpine talus aquifer: Cordillera Blanca, Peru

The dramatic loss of glacial mass in low latitudes is causing shifts in downstream water availability and use during the driest months of the year. The world’s largest concentration of tropical glaciers lies in the Cordillera Blanca range of Peru, where glacial runoff is declining and regional stresses are emerging over water resources. Throughout the Cordillera Blanca, groundwater inputs from alpine meadow–talus complexes, locally known as pampas, supply proglacial streams with up to 80% of their flow during the region’s dry season. Structural knowledge of the pampa aquifers is needed to estimate their drainable groundwater storage capacity and residence time, to elucidate the role and importance of alpine groundwater storage in the regional water budget of the Cordillera Blanca. To understand the structure of these proglacial aquifers, multiple near-surface geophysical methods were implemented in a proglacial valley near dense networks of spring-fed tributaries. Geophysical results and borehole logs suggest groundwater is stored in a confined aquifer composed of buried talus deposits overlain by lacustrine clay, while deeper portions of the unit, 10–15 m in depth, are relatively clay-free and more hydraulically conductive. Based on these findings and assumptions of aquifer porosity, the pampas of the Callejon de Huaylas may store from 0.006 to 0.02 km 3 of groundwater. Furthermore, these findings suggest that the talus aquifers of the Cordillera Blanca were formed in proglacial lakes, followed by infilling with fine lacustrine sediments that confine lower units and allow for groundwater discharge to springs via macropores and preferential flow.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2013

On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

This paper reconciles the difference in the projections of the wet season over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) from a global climate model (the Community Climate System Model Version 3 [CCSM3]) and from a regional climate model (the Regional Spectral Model [RSM]) nested in the CCSM3. The CCSM3 projects a dipole in the summer precipitation anomaly: peninsular Florida dries in the future climate, and the remainder of the SEUS region becomes wetter. The RSM forced with CCSM3 projects a universal drying of the SEUS in the late twenty-first century relative to the corresponding twentieth-century summer. The CCSM3 pattern is attributed to the “upped-ante” mechanism, whereby the atmospheric boundary layer moisture required for convection increases in a warm, statically stable global tropical environment. This criterion becomes harder to meet along convective margins, which include peninsular Florida, resulting in its drying. CCSM3 also projects a southwestward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high that leads to further stabilizing of the atmosphere above Florida, inhibiting convection. The RSM, because of its high (10-km grid) resolution, simulates diurnal variations in summer rainfall over SEUS reasonably well. The RSM improves upon CCSM3 through the RSM’s depiction of the diurnal variance of precipitation, which according to observations accounts for up to 40 % of total seasonal precipitation variance. In the future climate, the RSM projects a significant reduction in the diurnal variability of convection. The reduction is attributed to large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere in the CCSM3 projections.

Alabama;Arkansas;Florida;Georgia;Kentucky;Louisian↗

USGS2014

Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) model

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).

Ocean Dynamics↗

USGS2004

Manatees as sentinels of marine ecosystem health: are they the 2000-pound canaries?

The order Sirenia is represented by three species of manatees and one species of dugong distributed in tropical and subtropical regions of the world and considered vulnerable to extinction. The sentinel species concept is useful to identify indicators of the environment and may reflect the quality of health in marine ecosystems. The single species approach to evaluate ecological health may provide a series of “snap shots” of environmental changes to determine if animal, human, or ecosystem health may be affected. Under this concept, marine vertebrates may be good integrators of changes over space and time, and excellent sentinels of ecosystem health. Based on their life history, manatees may or may not be ideal sentinels, as they are robust, long-lived species and appear remarkably resilient to natural disease and the effects of human-related injury and trauma. These characteristics might be the result of an efficient and responsive immune system compared to other marine mammals. Although relatively immune to infectious agents, manatees face other potentially serious threats, including epizootic diseases and pollution while in large aggregations. Manatees can serve as excellent sentinels of harmful algal blooms due to their high sensitivity, specifically to brevetoxicosis, which has caused at least two major die-offs in recent times. Threats to manatees worldwide, such as illegal hunting and boat collisions, are increasing. Habitat is being lost at an alarming rate and the full effects of uncontrolled human population growth on the species are unknown. The manatee may serve as a sentinel species, prognosticating the deleterious effects of unhealthy marine and aquatic ecosystems on humans. We have identified a number of critical research needs and opportunities for transdisciplinary collaboration that could help advance the use of the sentinel species concept in marine ecosystem health and monitoring of disease emergence using our knowledge on these magnificent sirenians.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2004

Analysis of coral mucus as an improved medium for detection of enteric microbes and for determining patterns of sewage contamination in reef environments

Traditional fecal indicator bacteria are often subject to a high degree of die-off and dilution in tropical marine waters, particularly in offshore areas such as coral reefs. Furthermore, these microbes are often not associated with human waste, and their presence may not be indicative of health risk. To address the offshore extent of wastewater contamination in the Florida Keys reef tract, we assayed coral surfaces for the presence of human-specific enteric viruses. The overlying water column and surface mucopolysaccharide (mucus) layers from scleractinian corals were sampled from three stations along a nearshore-to-offshore transect beginning at Long Key in the middle Florida Keys, USA. Samples were assayed for standard bacterial water quality indicators (fecal coliform bacteria and enterococci) and for human enteroviruses by direct reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The concentration of the bacterial indicators was greatest at the nearshore station in both the water column and corals, and decreased with distance from shore; no indicator bacteria were detected at the offshore station. Whereas human enteroviruses were not detected in any of the water column samples, they were detected in 50â€“80% of coral mucus samples at each station. These data provide evidence that human sewage is impacting the reef tract up to ~6.5 km from shore in the middle Florida Keys and that coral mucus is an efficient trap for viral markers associated with anthropogenic pollution.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Ecological benefits of integrative weed management of Melaleuca quinquenervia in Big Cypress National Preserve

The southern tip of North America coalesces into one of the world’s largest freshwater wetlands, the Everglades, Florida, USA. Though this region is much like an island, home to high biodiversity and endemism, it is also the site of a century of development and associated landscape-scale species invasions. Melaleuca quinquenervia (hereafter melaleuca), a tree native to tropical Australia, was planted extensively throughout south Florida as street trees, levee stabilizers, and later to reduce standing water in marshy areas. Through extensive cooperation with the United States Department of Agriculture’s Australian Biological Control Laboratory, several biological control agents were released, three of which later successfully established. Herein we examine evidence that plant community shifts determined from vegetation surveys and remotely sensed images reflect changes from melaleuca-dominated wetlands (before management) to native communities (after management). Melaleuca-dominated community types decreased from 1990 to 2020 by more than 99%. Vegetation surveys also reflect an increase in cypress wetlands, pinelands, and open water wetlands, all of which were dominated by melaleuca in previous decades. We also found the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased in melaleuca-invaded wetlands during peak infestations but decreased again after communities recovered to sawgrass-dominated wetlands. These responses are concomitant with the development of integrative management techniques for melaleuca that include mechanical, chemical, and biological control. Our results confirm previous findings that biological control likely augments conventional management methods by limiting recovery of invasive species.

Florida↗

USGS2008

What parts of the US mainland are climatically suitable for invasive alien pythons spreading from Everglades National Park?

The Burmese Python (Python molurus bivittatus) is now well established in southern Florida and spreading northward. The factors likely to limit this spread are unknown, but presumably include climate or are correlated with climate. We compiled monthly rainfall and temperature statistics from 149 stations located near the edge of the python's native range in Asia (Pakistan east to China and south to Indonesia). The southern and eastern native range limits extend to saltwater, leaving unresolved the species' climatic tolerances in those areas. The northern and western limits are associated with cold and aridity respectively. We plotted mean monthly rainfall against mean monthly temperature for the 149 native range weather stations to identify the climate conditions inhabited by pythons in their native range, and mapped areas of the coterminous United States with the same climate today and projected for the year 2100. We accounted for both dry-season aestivation and winter hibernation (under two scenarios of hibernation duration). The potential distribution was relatively insensitive to choice of scenario for hibernation duration. US areas climatically matched at present ranged up the coasts and across the south from Delaware to Oregon, and included most of California, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South and North Carolina. By the year 2100, projected areas of potential suitable climate extend northward beyond the current limit to include parts of the states of Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Thus a substantial portion of the mainland US is potentially vulnerable to this ostensibly tropical invader. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biological Invasions↗