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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Rare milkvetch (Astragalus) persistence at a utility-scale solar energy facility in the Mojave Desert

Utility-scale solar energy (USSE) development is driving the projected growth in global renewable energy capacity but comes with environmental tradeoffs. New, alternative construction methods are promoted to minimize impacts to soils, vegetation, and hydrology; however, the disturbance created by these methods requires further investigation. We evaluated the population of a rare annual species, threecorner milkvetch ( Astragalus geyeri var. triquetrus ), at the Gemini Solar Project in the Mojave Desert, USA, two years after construction. Gemini was required to minimize disturbance in the threecorner milkvetch habitat, providing a unique opportunity to study the plant population and life history characteristics of a rare plant species under novel construction methods. Our objectives were to compare plant population characteristics of threecorner milkvetch inside and outside the Gemini footprint and in different photovoltaic (PV) panel microsites (interspace, panel dripline, under panel). We hypothesized that 1) threecorner milkvetch would have lower survival, reproduction, and growth, and a later phenology, inside compared to outside the facility, and 2) that these negative effects on plant demography and phenology would intensify with increasing proximity to photovoltaic panels in the solar array due to an increasing effect of disturbance and reduction of light and water availability. The results of this 1-year study during a favorable year of rainfall demonstrate the persistence of a rare Mojave annual plant species within an altered environment at a USSE facility. We found that threecorner milkvetch had an earlier phenology, grew larger, and had a higher fecundity at Gemini compared to plants off-site. Survivorship between the two populations, however, was not significantly different. Although growth and reproductive metrics were not correlated with distance to panel, minimal threecorner milkvetch emergence occurred directly under the PV panels and along their driplines, indicating a potential loss of suitable habitat if this pattern becomes more widespread in space or through time. Novel construction techniques for USSE could be considered moving forward to minimize impact on aboveground vegetation and maintain viable seed banks. The results of this study can assist land managers in making decisions about USSE development as the demand grows.

Nevada↗
USGS2026

Impacts of dams on river herring populations through their native range: What’s left?

Introduction: River herring (alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus , and blueback herring, Alosa aestivalis ) are native along the East Coast of North America. These fish are culturally important and provide critical ecosystem linkages between marine and freshwater habitats. Due to overfishing, and habitat loss (through degradation and damming), river herring populations are at historical lows across their native range. In the last 200 years, dams and other impoundments have reduced access to spawning habitat for these and other anadromous fish. Methods: To assess the theoretical coast-wide spawning potential for river herring, we quantified historically accessible spawning habitat (pre-dam) in coastal freshwater rivers using physical river characteristics (width and gradient). To assess the impact of dams on spawning habitat, we used a dams database to segment river reaches. This allowed us to characterize spawning habitat upstream and downstream of dams. River-specific population models were then used to estimate the number of potential spawners for each species, based on habitat estimates and life history parameters. We investigated three scenarios: no dams, favorable dam passage, and no dam passage. We use these simulations to compare the theoretical spawning potential for river herring prior to and after dam construction coastwide. Results: We estimated that 52% of alewife and 51% of blueback herring habitat is located upstream of dams throughout the East Coast of North America. This results in a theoretical loss of ~880 million alewife and ~100 million blueback herring potential spawners due to dams, reducing both the ecological connection and fishery potential of these species. Discussion: Even with the best-case “current” scenario for fish passage, we observed marginal increases in spawner abundance. These results highlight the relatively small theoretical influence current passage structures may have on restoring river herring to their historical abundances compared to dam removal. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrate that upstream passage to access additional habitat is only advantageous when effective juvenile and adult downstream passage are in place.

East Coast of North America↗
USGS2026

Mass mortality of avian migrants in New Mexico, USA, that coincided with an extreme weather event

Many birds are migratory, and this life history strategy allows for maximized access to seasonally abundant resources and favorable climates. However, migration exposes birds to threats and stressors, resulting in high mortality during migration. Anthropogenic landscape alterations and climate change have intensified threats, and mass mortality events linked to extreme weather are more common in recent decades. Documenting mass mortality is critical for predicting future occurrences and implementing effective conservation. Here, we describe a mortality event that occurred throughout New Mexico, USA in fall 2020. Carcasses began appearing in the region in mid-August, during a period of extreme heat and drought. Following an extreme cold weather event on September 8–9 th , the number of carcasses increased dramatically and expanded throughout the state. In total, we collected 628 carcasses comprising 58 species within Doña Ana and Otero Counties in New Mexico. Necropsy determined emaciation was the cause of death for 74.6% of carcasses. Live birds captured during the period of peak mortality (n = 223) were in similarly poor condition. This event provides a striking example of how multiple types of extreme stressors, in this case widespread drought and unseasonal cold, coincided with a mortality event, indicating a possible synergistic relationship between these factors and the mass mortality. Mortality events are likely to increase in frequency with intensifying climate change. Establishment of networks of biologists and researchers could improve our ability to identify and communicate developing mortality events, organize data collection, and improve understanding of the causes and consequences of mortality.

New Mexico↗
USGS2026

Non-native invasive beetle alters structure of a riparian bird community in a biodiversity hotspot

A serious emerging threat to southern California riparian ecosystems is the invasive shot hole borer ( Euwallacea spp.; SHB), a non-native beetle that cultivates a pathogenic fungus that kills trees of 66 reproductive host species. We examined the response of the bird community at the Tijuana River, California, to a massive SHB infestation in 2015 using data from a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) station operated during 7 pre-infestation (2009-15) and 7 post-infestation (2017-23) years. Species richness did not change between pre- and immediate (2017-18) post-SHB periods, but average annual adult captures declined by 27%. Among the species making up ≥ 5% of the total individuals caught in any one year (n=15), abundance declined by up to 76% in 10 species, including those most abundant at the station (Bushtit ( Psaltriparus minimus ), Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ), Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), Orange-crowned Warbler ( Leiothlypis celata ), and Wilson’s Warbler ( Cardellina pusilla )). Mean annual abundance increased slightly for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) and Northern Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga aestiva ) and doubled for House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ) and Western Warbling-Vireo ( V. swainsoni ). We compared species trends at the Tijuana River to those at a nearby uninfested MAPS station on the Santa Margarita River to isolate the effect of SHB from other factors influencing annual abundance. The contribution of SHB to changes in abundance post-SHB was high (63-80%) for 7 declining species, moderate (22-45%) for 4 species, and weakly to moderately positive (18-40%) for 3 species. By 2019, the SHB infestation at the Tijuana River had abated and canopy cover was recovering through resprouting of mature willows ( Salix spp.) and seedling establishment. Bird abundance tracked this regrowth, with all of the species strongly affected by SHB increasing between 2019-23. The rapid recovery of the Tijuana River habitat and the associated response by the bird community are encouraging signs that the threat of the invasive shot hole borer to regional biodiversity may not be as great as originally anticipated.

California↗
USGS2026

Tracking Pacific salmon migrations with a prototype eDNA autosampler

Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) are keystone species that support commercial and recreational fisheries and play a significant role in Indigenous cultures. As a keystone species, they are commonly monitored to assess population metrics and adult and juvenile migration. Environmental DNA (eDNA) has been successfully applied to salmon monitoring, but these efforts have relied on manually collected samples which can limit temporal resolution and increase field effort. Here, we evaluated a prototype autonomous eDNA sampler for fine-scale tracking of adult salmon migrations in the Lake Washington Ship Canal (LWSC) in Washington state, USA. The autosampler was deployed approximately 3 km upstream of the Ballard Locks, where returning adult salmon are counted daily, for 4 months during the adult salmon return in 2022, and it collected eDNA samples twice daily (day and night) onto self-preserving filters. We tested eDNA samples for Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), Sockeye Salmon ( O. nerka ) and Coho Salmon ( O. kisutch ) and results were compared with daily adult counts at the Ballard Locks. eDNA detection lagged visual counts by approximately 5 days for Sockeye and Coho salmon and approximately 23 days for Chinook Salmon. The extensive time lag in eDNA detection for Chinook Salmon was likely due to a thermal barrier, delaying their migration through the LWSC. We found no clear effect of day versus night sampling on eDNA detection probability. Two additional experiments were performed: one to assess eDNA degradation on used self-preserving filters stored in the autosampler and another to assess whether our 3 L system flush volume was sufficient to prevent residual eDNA from being carried over from one sample to the next. We found no apparent eDNA degradation but potential for sample-to-sample carry over at this flush volume. Our study highlights the need to consider strategic placement of the autosampler intake to optimize eDNA capture and testing of flush volumes to minimize sample-to-sample carryover. Autonomous eDNA sampling provided efficient, high-frequency, and fine-scale surveillance of salmon migrations and offers a scalable approach for a wide variety of monitoring applications.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Quantifying Chinook Salmon habitat across flow regimes: High resolution modeling in Oregon’s Willamette River basin

The Santiam and McKenzie River basins of western Oregon provide critical habitat for federally listed Upper Willamette River Spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Streamflows in each basin are regulated in part by high-head multi-purpose dams; however, quantitative linkages between regulated streamflows and downstream habitat for juvenile and adult Chinook salmon remain limited. This study integrates high-resolution topo-bathymetric lidar, two-dimensional hydraulic models, and novel detailed sediment distribution models to evaluate habitat across a range of flows for over 400 river km. Results suggest that habitat quantity for two juvenile life stages (fry and parr) differs in response to streamflow; fry habitat appears to be relatively insensitive to streamflow, except in the downstream-most reaches of each river, while parr habitat generally increases from low to moderate flows, yet decreases at higher flows. Spawning habitat is largely inversely related to streamflow and is primarily limited by suitable substrate availability, likely reflecting sediment retention effects of upstream dams. Additionally, streamflow thresholds were identified where redd desiccation risk increases significantly with declining streamflow. These findings provide managers with spatially explicit tools to evaluate flow management tradeoffs during critical rearing and spawning periods and provide insights into habitat dynamics in large, regulated rivers. This work demonstrates how high-resolution modeling can support quantification of habitat at the landscape level.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Seasonal trophic dynamics drive growth potential and predation risk for reintroduced Chinook salmon in Shasta Reservoir

Reservoir ecosystems can significantly affect anadromous salmon populations reintroduced upstream of impassable high-head dams. In this study, we examine how a novel reservoir food web created by an impoundment can limit juvenile growth or survival through the seasonal production or access to food, promote competition for available resources, and affect risk of the food supply or predation mortality, all of which can be strongly influenced by the thermal regime. Shasta Reservoir, the largest impoundment in California’s Central Valley Project, presents opportunities and risks for winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), a federally endangered population targeted for reintroduction into the McCloud River, which flows into the reservoir. We integrated field sampling, stable isotope analysis, hydroacoustic surveys, and bioenergetics modeling to characterize Shasta Reservoir’s food web and evaluate seasonal growth potential and predation risk for juvenile salmon. Zooplankton, dominated by Daphnia , provided favorable foraging conditions in spring but declined sharply by late summer, coinciding with high consumption demand from abundant threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ). Bioenergetics simulations indicated that fry that would ordinarily enter the reservoir in autumn would face poor growth opportunities. They would also be exposed to elevated predation risk driven by warm temperatures and high metabolic demand, particularly from piscivorous salmonids and Sacramento pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus grandis ). Limited information on predator abundances precludes the ability to quantify total predation demand. Alternatively, juveniles entering the reservoir the following spring would encounter greater prey availability and reduced predation pressure. These findings highlight the strong influence of seasonal thermal structure and food web dynamics on reservoir constraints and underscore the need to incorporate the dynamics of key habitats into reintroduction management and decisions. Our framework provides a quantitative, mechanistically-based approach for evaluating the role of reservoirs in salmon reintroductions above high-head dams.

California↗
USGS2026

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Fire in Mediterranean climate ecosystems-A comparative overview

Four regions of the world share a similar climate and structurally similar plant communities with the Mediterranean Basin. These five areas, known collectively as "mediterranean-type climate (MTC) regions", are dominated by evergreen sclerophyllous-leaved shrublands, semi-deciduous scrub, and woodlands, all of which are prone to widespread crown fires. Summer droughts produce an annual fire hazard that contributes to a highly predictable fire regime. Fire has been an important factor driving the convergence of these systems and is reflected in plant traits such as lignotubers in resprouting shrubs and delayed reproduction that restricts recruitment to a postfire pulse of seedlings. On fertile soils where postfire resprouting is very rapid, opportunities for postfire seedling recruitment are limited and thus these woody taxa have not opted for delaying reproduction. Such fire-independent recruitment is widespread in the floras of MTC regions of the Mediterranean Basin and California and postfire seeding tends to dominate at the more arid end of the gradient. Due to very different geological histories in South Africa and Western Australia, substrates are nutrient poor and thus postfire resprouters do not pose a similar competitive challenge to seedlings and thus postfire seeding is very widespread in these floras. Although circumstantial evidence suggests that the MTC region of Chile had fire-prone landscapes in the Tertiary, these were lost with the late Miocene completion of the Andean uplift, which now blocks summer lightning storms from moving into the region. Today these five regions pose a significant fire management challenge due to the annual fire hazard and metropolitan centers juxtaposed with highly flammable vegetation. This challenge varies across the five MTC landscapes as a function of differences in regional fuel loads and population density.

Israel Journal of Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Heterogeneity of locked‐pasture snow conditions modulate habitat and movement choices of a facultative migrant

Habitat selection and movement are key mechanisms by which animals can respond to and potentially cope with highly variable environmental conditions. Optimal responses likely vary, however, depending on the severity and scope of conditions. We tested this hypothesis using a facultative migrant species, the Great Gray Owl ( Strix nebulosa ), which exhibits high inter- and intra-individual variation in the timing, direction, and distance of winter movements. Specifically, we evaluated whether episodic, spatiotemporally variable “locked-pasture” snow conditions, which restrict access to subnivean food, prompted shifts in habitat selection or long-distance movements by owls. We quantified the movement of 42 owls using global positioning system (GPS) data within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA, during 2017–2022. We used a novel ecological application of SnowModel, a snow evolution modeling system, to estimate fine-scale, physical snow properties likely to influence access to prey. Variables included snow depth, snow crusts produced by wind, and ice crusts produced by melt-freeze and rain-on-snow events. Owls avoided heterogeneously distributed wind crusts via local shifts in habitat selection. More homogenous ice crusts elicited long-distance movements away from affected home ranges. Finally, owls employed both proximate shifts in habitat selection and long-distance movements to avoid deeper snow. Ultimately, owls exhibited behavioral flexibility in response to limiting snow conditions that can vary in terms of severity, spatial extent, and duration. Such behavioral responses determine species distribution, with implications for population and community dynamics in spatiotemporally variable systems. Understanding the effects of, and responses to, environmental controls is increasingly important given the scope of on-going global change.

Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Why hibernate? Tests of four hypotheses to explain intraspecific variation in hibernation phenology

Hibernation is a remarkable behaviour deployed by a diverse array of endotherms within many clades that greatly reduces metabolic need, but also has somatic costs. Hibernation in modern endotherms is often assumed to be an adaptation allowing animals to avoid extreme thermal conditions or food shortages in seasonal environments. However, many animals hibernate when foraging conditions are energetically profitable, suggesting other causal factors influence hibernation behaviour. Understanding the selection pressures responsible for intraspecific variation in the timing and duration of hibernation can help elucidate the relative evolutionary influences of the ultimate ecological causes of hibernation. We tested four previously proposed mechanistic hypotheses to explain intraspecific variation in hibernation phenology in the federally threatened northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus ): (1) thermal tolerance, (2) food limitation, (3) predation avoidance and (4) sexual selection. The predation avoidance and sexual selection hypotheses received the most support, although we also found some support for the thermal tolerance and food limitation hypotheses. Heavy squirrels increased hibernation duration regardless of environmental conditions, as predicted solely by the predation avoidance hypothesis. Reproductive males emerged from hibernation earlier in spring than other sex–age classes, a pattern predicted by the sexual selection hypothesis. Temperature and food availability explained a much smaller amount of the variation in hibernation behaviour, only partially supporting predictions of the thermal tolerance and food limitation hypotheses. Our results indicate that animals navigate life-history trade-offs between energetic allocation to survival and reproduction via state-dependent optimization of hibernation phenology. Consequently, any future environmental changes that influence body condition will have implications for population ecology and life-history evolution of hibernating animals due to stark differences in daily survival probability between hibernation and the active season.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2016

Local biotic adaptation of trees and shrubs to plant neighbors

Natural selection as a result of plant–plant interactions can lead to local biotic adaptation. This may occur where species frequently interact and compete intensely for resources limiting growth, survival, and reproduction. Selection is demonstrated by comparing a genotype interacting with con- or hetero-specific sympatric neighbor genotypes with a shared site-level history (derived from the same source location), to the same genotype interacting with foreign neighbor genotypes (from different sources). Better genotype performance in sympatric than allopatric neighborhoods provides evidence of local biotic adaptation. This pattern might be explained by selection to avoid competition by shifting resource niches (differentiation) or by interactions benefitting one or more members (facilitation). We tested for local biotic adaptation among two riparian trees, Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii , and the shrub Salix exigua by transplanting replicated genotypes from multiple source locations to a 17 000 tree common garden with sympatric and allopatric treatments along the Colorado River in California. Three major patterns were observed: 1) across species, 62 of 88 genotypes grew faster with sympatric neighbors than allopatric neighbors; 2) these growth rates, on an individual tree basis, were 44, 15 and 33% higher in sympatric than allopatric treatments for P. fremontii, S. exigua and S. gooddingii , respectively, and; 3) survivorship was higher in sympatric treatments for P. fremontii and S. exigua . These results support the view that fitness of foundation species supporting diverse communities and dominating ecosystem processes is determined by adaptive interactions among multiple plant species with the outcome that performance depends on the genetic identity of plant neighbors. The occurrence of evolution in a plant-community context for trees and shrubs builds on ecological evolutionary research that has demonstrated co-evolution among herbaceous taxa, and evolution of native species during exotic plants invasion, and taken together, refutes the concept that plant communities are always random associations.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Plant size, latitude, and phylogeny explain within-population variability in herbivory

Interactions between plants and herbivores are central in most ecosystems, but their strength is highly variable. The amount of variability within a system is thought to influence most aspects of plant-herbivore biology, from ecological stability to plant defense evolution. Our understanding of what influences variability, however, is limited by sparse data. We collected standardized surveys of herbivory for 503 plant species at 790 sites across 116° of latitude. With these data, we show that within-population variability in herbivory increases with latitude, decreases with plant size, and is phylogenetically structured. Differences in the magnitude of variability are thus central to how plant-herbivore biology varies across macroscale gradients. We argue that increased focus on interaction variability will advance understanding of patterns of life on Earth.

Science↗
USGS2025

Eradication efforts catalyze rapid evolution in an invasive predatory fish

pecies invasions spur costly and labor-intensive control efforts, yet even local eradication is seldom achieved. When control measures are initially effective, they may drive evolutionary adaptation that prevents full eradication, as has been documented for some chemical and biocontrol approaches. Although the intensity, directionality, and persistence of selection required to increase the frequency of resistant genotypes in complex natural ecosystems remains an open question, theory predicts that high mortality can cause life-history evolution even in the absence of a strong selective agent. Here, we use annually collected ecological and genetic data to show that rapid evolution of introduced smallmouth bass has undermined a 20-y manual suppression effort in a mid-sized lake. Despite nearly doubling annual mortality, our intensive control program produced a larger bass population dominated by young and early-maturing fish. These shifts were accompanied by large allele frequency changes in three genomic regions associated with earlier maturation and increased somatic growth. Our findings bear out the theoretical prediction that high mortality can drive evolutionary adaptation in target species. Controlling species invasions are worldwide practices that typically remove a substantial proportion of a population during each of many successive generations, hence life history adaptation may be commonplace. Such evolutionary responses could be salient in explaining the widespread failure of invasion control efforts. Genetic and phenotypic monitoring to detect cryptic adaptation and preemptive design of invader eradication programs to deliberately disrupt directional selection for resistance could improve invasion control outcomes.

New York↗
USGS2014

Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: Evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework

A map of ecological regions of the conterminous United States, first published in 1987, has been greatly refined and expanded into a hierarchical spatial framework in response to user needs, particularly by state resource management agencies. In collaboration with scientists and resource managers from numerous agencies and institutions in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the framework has been expanded to cover North America, and the original ecoregions (now termed Level III) have been refined, subdivided, and aggregated to identify coarser as well as more detailed spatial units. The most generalized units (Level I) define 10 ecoregions in the conterminous U.S., while the finest-scale units (Level IV) identify 967 ecoregions. In this paper, we explain the logic underpinning the approach, discuss the evolution of the regional mapping process, and provide examples of how the ecoregions were distinguished at each hierarchical level. The variety of applications of the ecoregion framework illustrates its utility in resource assessment and management.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2021

Metamorphosis in an era of increasing climate variability

Most animals have complex life cycles including metamorphosis or other discrete life stage transitions during which individuals may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. With climate change, individuals will be exposed to increasing thermal and hydrologic variability during metamorphosis, which may affect survival and performance through physiological, behavioral, and ecological mechanisms. Furthermore, because metamorphosis entails changes in traits and vital rates, it is likely to play an important role in how populations respond to increasing climate variability. To identify mechanisms underlying population responses and associated trait and life history evolution, we need new approaches to estimating changes in individual traits and performance throughout metamorphosis, and we need to integrate metamorphosis as an explicit life stage in analytical models.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make ‘Functional Types’ more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of ‘Plant Functional Types’ (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, i.e. to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages (‘Lineage Functional Types’) will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Global Change Biology↗