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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

A comprehensive multilocus phylogeny for the wood-warblers and a revised classification of the Parulidae (Aves)

The birds in the family Parulidae-commonly termed the New World warblers or wood-warblers-are a classic model radiation for studies of ecological and behavioral differentiation. Although the monophyly of a 'core' wood-warbler clade is well established, no phylogenetic hypothesis for this group has included a full sampling of wood-warbler species diversity. We used parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods to reconstruct relationships among all genera and nearly all wood-warbler species, based on a matrix of mitochondrial DNA (5840 nucleotides) and nuclear DNA (6 loci, 4602 nucleotides) characters. The resulting phylogenetic hypotheses provide a highly congruent picture of wood-warbler relationships, and indicate that the traditional generic classification of these birds recognizes many non-monophyletic groups. We recommend a revised taxonomy in which each of 14 genera (Seiurus, Helmitheros, Mniotilta, Limnothlypis, Protonotaria, Parkesia, Vermivora, Oreothlypis, Geothlypis, Setophaga, Myioborus, Cardellina, Basileuterus, Myiothlypis) corresponds to a well-supported clade; these nomenclatural changes also involve subsuming a number of well-known, traditional wood-warbler genera (Catharopeza, Dendroica, Ergaticus, Euthlypis, Leucopeza, Oporornis, Parula, Phaeothlypis, Wilsonia). We provide a summary phylogenetic hypothesis that will be broadly applicable to investigations of the historical biogeography, processes of diversification, and evolution of trait variation in this well studied avian group. ?? 2010 Elsevier Inc.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗

Generating community-built tools for data sharing and analysis in environmental networks

Rapid data growth in many environmental sectors has necessitated tools to manage and analyze these data. The development of tools often lags behind the proliferation of data, however, which may slow exploratory opportunities and scientific progress. The Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) collaborative model supports an efficient and comprehensive data–analysis–insight life cycle, including implementations of data quality control checks, statistical calculations/derivations, models, and data visualizations. These tools are community-built and openly shared. We discuss the network structure that enables tool development and a culture of sharing, leading to optimized output from limited resources. Specifically, data sharing and a flat collaborative structure encourage the development of tools that enable scientific insights from these data. Here we provide a cross-section of scientific advances derived from global-scale analyses in GLEON. We document enhancements to science capabilities made possible by the development of analytical tools and highlight opportunities to expand this framework to benefit other environmental networks.

Inland Waters↗

Forecasting community reassembly using climate-linked spatio-temporal ecosystem models

Ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human activities, altering linkages among physical and biological components. Spatial community reassembly occurs when these human impacts modify the spatial overlap between system components, and there is need for practical tools to forecast spatial community reassembly at landscape scales using monitoring data. To illustrate a new approach, we extend a generalization of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which involves a spatio‐temporal ecosystem model that approximates coupled physical, biological and human dynamics. We then demonstrate its application to five trophic levels for the eastern Bering Sea by fitting to multiple, spatially unbalanced datasets measuring physical characteristics (temperature measurements and climate‐linked forecasts), primary producers (spring and fall size‐fractionated chlorophyll‐a), secondary producers (copepods), juveniles (age‐0 walleye pollock), adult consumers (five commercially important fishes), human activities (seasonal fishing effort) and mobile predators (seabirds). We identify the spatial niche for each ecosystem component, as well as dominant modes of variability that are highly correlated with a known bottom–up driver of dynamics. We then measure spatial overlap between interacting variables (using Schoener's‐D) and identify that age‐0 pollock have decreased spatial overlap with copepods and increased overlap with adult pollock during warm years, and also that adult pollock have increased overlap with arrowtooth flounder and decreased overlap with catcher–processor fishing effort during these warm years. Given the warming conditions that are projected for the coming decade, the model forecasts increased prey and competitor overlap involving adult pollock (between age‐0 pollock, adult pollock and arrowtooth flounder) and decreased overlap with the copepod forage base and with the catcher–processor fishery during future warming. We recommend that joint species distribution models be extended to incorporate ‘ecological teleconnections' (correlations between distant locations arising from known mechanisms) arising from behavioral adaptation by mobile animals as well as passive advection of nutrients and planktonic juvenile stages.

Ecography↗

Ants as a measure of effectiveness of habitat conservation planning in southern California

In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed .

California↗

Risk of Myxobolus cerebralis infection to rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA

Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite that causes salmonid whirling disease, has had detrimental effects on several salmonid populations in the Intermountain West, including the rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA. The goal of this study was to examine relationships among characteristics of the environment, Tubifex tubifex (the alternate host) populations, and rainbow trout whirling disease risk in the Madison River. Environmental characteristics were measured in side channels of the Madison River, and differences were described with a principal components analysis. The density of T. tubifex, the prevalence of infection in T. tubifex, and the density of infected T. tubifex were determined for the side channels using benthic core samples and examination of live tubificids for infection. The site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk in the side channels was determined using in situ exposures of sentinel rainbow trout. Regression analyses were used to determine correlations among these characteristics. Side channels differed in site-specific contribution to rainbow trout whirling disease risk, which was positively correlated to the density of infected T. tubifex. Side channels with fine sediments and lower water temperatures made greater site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk and had higher densities of infected T. tubifex than side channels with coarser sediments and higher temperatures. The ability to characterize areas of high whirling disease risk is essential for improving our understanding of the dynamics of M. cerebralis such that appropriate management strategies can be implemented. In addition, this study provides a model of how the disease ecology of complex aquatic parasites can be examined when the influential processes operate on different spatial scales. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Montana↗

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Report↗

A framework for decision points to trigger adaptive management actions in long-term incidental take permits

Introduction The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has begun to issue incidental take permits (ITPs) to wind power companies to allow limited take of bird and bat species that are protected under the Endangered Species Act, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, or the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (Huso and others, 2015). Expected take rates are determined using scientifically based collision-risk models and knowledge about the ecology of the population of interest. ITPs often include mitigation requirements to compensate for estimated take and further describe (1) adaptive management actions (AMAs) that may be required to reduce take rates if permitted rate is exceeded, or (2) additional compensatory mitigation to offset take that exceeds permitted levels. Confirming the accuracy of predicted take and providing evidence that permitted take levels have not been exceeded can be challenging because carcasses may be detected with probability much less than 1, and often no carcasses are observed. When detection probability is high, finding 0 carcasses can be interpreted as evidence that none (or few) were actually killed. As the probability of observing an individual decreases, the likelihood of missing carcasses increases, making it unclear how to interpret having observed 0 (or few) carcasses. In a practical sense, the consequences of incorrect inference can be significant: overestimating take could result in costly and unjustified mitigation, whereas underestimating could result in unanticipated declines in species populations already at risk.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Washington↗

Physics to fish—Understanding the factors that create and sustain native fish habitat in the San Francisco Estuary

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Central Valley Project (CVP), one of the nation’s largest water projects. Reclamation has an ongoing need to improve the scientific basis for adaptive management of the CVP and, by extension, joint operations with California’s State Water Project. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works cooperatively with the Bureau of Reclamation to provide scientific support for the management of Reclamation’s CVP project. Major habitat restoration efforts and a new water-diversion point are planned to benefit delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) and other species of concern while ensuring the reliability of water supply. In addition, various flow actions and management activities have been identified as possible methods to increase populations of delta smelt and salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) runs of concern. The overarching goal of this cooperative project was to provide Reclamation with the scientific information needed to evaluate the efficacy of ongoing and future adaptive management actions and to improve the scientific basis for more flexible CVP operations that would achieve water-supply reliability and fish protection. The research and monitoring described in this report comprises the period 2015–19 and focuses on management issues related to native fish species of concern, especially delta smelt. Conserving the delta smelt population while providing a reliable water supply is a primary management and policy issue in California. Our approach for this cooperative project is based on the “physics to fish” concept, the idea that high-quality habitat is generated and sustained by the interaction between physical processes and the landscape. These interactions create a template for chemical and biological processes that can change across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Following this concept, this project (hereafter referred to as “the physics to fish project”) included monitoring and studies of water flows, sediments, water quality, and invertebrate and fish dynamics across a range of spatial and temporal scales and in regions relevant to resource managers tasked with managing water supplies and ecosystem health in the San Francisco Estuary. The intent of this approach was to document the habitat conditions, important processes, and interactions among them that create high-quality habitat for native fishes so that the likely effects of future management actions (for example, habitat restoration) can be objectively assessed at the local (site-specific), regional (within subregions of the estuary), and landscape (across the entire estuary and beyond) scales. Hydrodynamically, the upper estuary (landward of Carquinez Strait) is characterized by a fixed volume of tidally exchanged water (for example, tidal prism) that interacts with the existing channel network and bathymetry to create regions with differing hydrodynamics. Our results indicate that careful study of construction or reoperation of existing infrastructure to perform management actions can help (1) improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic models; (2) further understanding of ecological effects; and (3) enhance abilities to predict ecological outcomes. At the local scale, we developed a new concept called the Lagrangian to Eulerian (LE) ratio that can be used as a tool for understanding the importance of various hydrodynamic processes in specific channels or channel networks and for forecasting transport dynamics. Channels with LE ratios<1 in a channel network or in a dead-end slough are hydrodynamically able to develop an exchange zone between two parcels of water that may have different chemical and physical properties. In a dead-end channel, there is a landward region with long residence time (no-exchange zone) and a seaward region with short residence time (high-exchange zone) that are well mixed with seaward waters. At the transition (exchange zone) between the high and no-exchange regions, a gradient will form in water-quality constituents that differ in concentration between the landward and seaward waters. Turbidity affects fish habitat and has declined through time in the San Francisco Estuary. Average turbidity across the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter referred to as “the Delta”) is dependent on annual hydrology. In dry years, the region around Cache Slough (known regionally as the “Cache Slough Complex”) in the northern Delta is generally more turbid than Suisun Bay and the lower Sacramento River. When the Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), a large flood bypass that runs parallel to the Sacramento River in the northern Delta, is not flooding and river flows are lower, sediment is usually transported into the Cache Slough Complex because flood tides dominate ebb tides, resulting in transport of suspended sediment from seaward areas of the upper estuary into the Cache Slough Complex. These hydrodynamic conditions also favor the formation of turbidity maximums (TMs) in the Cache Slough Complex. The TMs are areas of higher suspended-sediment concentration, providing higher-turbidity habitat favored by some fishes, including delta smelt, and they can also concentrate other constituents, including phytoplankton and organic carbon that can be important in food webs. Pelagic primary production by phytoplankton is the basis for Delta food webs supporting pelagic fishes such as delta smelt; however, phytoplankton abundance in the Delta has declined during recent decades. We examined how nutrients, hydrodynamics, and other factors affect phytoplankton blooms. Based on our results, we developed three new concepts of phytoplankton bloom formation in the Delta, each associated with a distinct set of hydrologic conditions. First, productivity cascades highlighted how local processes can contribute to phytoplankton blooms observed at the regional scale. Second, we observed phytoplankton blooms in the upper San Francisco Estuary that were associated with transport out of Yolo By-Pass (transport blooms). Third, we also documented a series of phytoplankton blooms that were in the confluence area at the landward edge of Suisun Bay. The conditions leading to creation of confluence phytoplankton blooms are not yet understood, but the confluence region connects the Cache Slough Complex with Suisun Marsh. Therefore, blooms in this area have the potential to spread to large areas of the Delta. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the invasive clams ( Potamocorbula amurensis and Corbicula fluminea , hereafter referred to as “ Corbicula ”) is driven by salinity. At smaller spatial scales, the distribution of either species is sensitive to multiple factors affecting survival and reproduction, complicating efforts to predict distribution and abundance without considering local-scale conditions across the area of interest. In the Cache Slough Complex, the area landward of the exchange zone in regions with LE ratio<1 were characterized by low abundances of Corbicula probably because recruits from seaward areas are not transported past the exchange zone and because there are no landward tributaries with adult Corbicula to provide an upstream source of recruits. Corbicula biomass was highest near or downstream from the exchange zone consistent with Corbicula grazing on phytoplankton produced in the exchange zone or transported from the no-exchange zone. The severity of Corbicula grazing could be reduced by manipulating the hydrodynamic characteristics of waterways; however, the beneficial and harmful effects on the organisms meant to benefit from increased phytoplankton production, including zooplankton and fish species of concern, should be thoroughly examined before manipulating hydrodynamic characteristics. The distribution of fishes at the landscape scale is generally driven by the position of the salinity field in the estuary. The physics to fish project compared distributions of fishes at Ryer Island, a tidal wetland in Suisun Bay and a region of variable salinity, with fish distributions at the Cache Slough Complex, a freshwater region. At Ryer Island, there was an absence of freshwater invasive species and an abundance of native species, such as Sacramento splittail ( Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ), tule perch ( Hysterocarpus traskii ), and Sacramento pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus grandis ). The native species were almost exclusively captured in wetland and nearshore shallow-water habitat regardless of water-quality conditions. In the Cache Slough Complex, our regional scale objective was to elucidate how hydrodynamic-physical habitat interactions drive fish-community structure. Our studies showed that dendritic channel systems were better able to support native species, while intertidal habitats supported those species best able to exploit the transient character of the habitat. Habitats upstream from the exchange zone were especially important in supporting high numbers of native fishes relative to within or downstream from the exchange zone. Many of the native species were associated with tidal marsh in the no-exchange zone. More pelagic-oriented, mobile species, such as Striped Bass ( Morone saxatilis ), threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ), and Sacramento pikeminnow, were more affected by water-quality conditions, such as turbidity. The physics to fish concept developed in this project provides a framework for designing individual projects and for considering the cumulative effects of multiple projects in a region, using the LE ratio as a guiding metric. The physics to fish concept may also provide a suitable framework for coordinating management actions. Tidal wetlands can function in several ways in the hydrodynamic framework. Relatively small tidal wetlands with short channel networks and with LE ratios>1 are not able to maintain a landward no-exchange zone or an exchange zone. This likely means that any contributions to pelagic food webs would be limited to resources derived from wetland vegetation, which can include dissolved and particulate organic matter (detritus) and populations of consumers that can increase in abundance based on those resources. The fate of the contributed production from these channels depends on the characteristics of the receiving waters seaward of the tidal wetland. If these channels join a large system such as Suisun Bay, then any contribution is likely to be rapidly dispersed in the larger volume; however, the channel junction might provide a focal point for consumers, such as fishes, to congregate and feed on material leaving the wetland on ebb tides before it is dispersed in the larger volume. Fishes might also access these resources by entering the wetland. The physics to fish project has established a foundation and several new concepts for understanding how habitat restoration can benefit native fish populations at the local and regional levels. Many of the ideas regarding habitat restoration and channel modifications outlined in this report could help guide management actions that could improve conditions for native fishes at little or no water cost beyond water already dedicated to other management actions. A complete list of products originating from this work is provided in appendix 1.

California↗

Expanded conceptual risk framework for uranium mining in Grand Canyon watershed—Inclusion of the Havasupai Tribe perspective

In 2012, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior placed a 20-year limit on mineral extraction on Federal lands in the Grand Canyon watershed to permit further study of the environmental effects of uranium mining. Tribal concerns were also noted by the U.S. Department of the Interior and included in the rationale for the decision stating Tribal resource impacts could not be mitigated and cultural degradation may result should mining occur within sacred and traditional places of Tribal peoples. The U.S. Geological Survey previously developed a conceptual framework for a uranium mine in the region that defined contaminant sources and physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect contaminant transport to ecological receptors. However, published risk models have largely ignored exposure pathways relevant to Tribal communities in terms of traditional uses and existential values of the resources included. This report presents an updated conceptual risk framework for uranium mining that includes indigenous knowledge components informed by the Havasupai Tribe perspective. The expansion of the framework relied on connecting to the foundations of the Havasupai ceremonial wheel—food, environment, belief system, and ceremony. The framework is applied to uranium development near Red Butte, an important gathering place for multiple federally recognized Tribes including the Havasupai, Hopi, Navajo, and Zuni. Plants and animals important to the Havasupai for subsistence, ceremonial, and medicinal practices and how mining affects these practices are described. The final framework is presented in English and Havasupai to aid Tribal members in understanding how the framework relates to their community and to help preserve the language and historical cultural practices for future generations. New or expanded exposure pathways include inhalation, ingestion, and absorption from traditional food and medicines as well as ceremonial practices. The updated framework has allowed the U.S. Geological Survey to take first steps in understanding resources important to the Havasupai and to build relationships to improve co-production in our research. Ideally, the framework and other research can be used, along with indigenous knowledge, in Federal research and decision making for mining in the Grand Canyon region.

Open-File Report↗

Annotated bibliography of the hydrology, geology, and geothermal research of the Jemez Mountains and vicinity, north-central New Mexico

The Jemez Mountains volcanic complex, located in north-central New Mexico at the intersection of the Rio Grande rift and Jemez lineament, is a potential location for geothermal energy exploration. This bibliography lists selected papers pertaining to the geology, hydrology, geochemistry, geothermometry, geophysics, ecology, and geothermal and hydrologic modeling aspects of the Jemez region. The bibliography is composed of 795 citations with annotations and a subject and author index. (USGS)

New Mexico↗

A review of Arctomecon californica (Papaveraceae) with a focus on the species’ potential for propagation and reintroduction and conservation needs

Las Vegas bearpoppy ( Arctomecon californica ) occurrences have fluctuated during the past several decades, in part due to interannual variability in rainfall that influences recruitment and mortality events; yet, development in the Las Vegas Valley continues to threaten habitat supporting this species. Arctomecon californica was petitioned for listing under the Endangered Species Act in 2019 and is currently under review to determine whether listing is warranted ( USFWS 2020 ). This review updates species information for A. californica and includes recent insights into the species' seed ecology, habitat requirements and suitability models, propagation and reintroduction, and pollinator biology. We include information from the past 20 years in these areas that supplement conservation and restoration actions for the species. We also identify topics with scarce information and highlight areas for future study, including the following: preservation of genetic diversity through germplasm collections, identification of mechanisms driving the species' soil endemism, maintenance of A. californica –pollinator relationships through understanding pollinator habitat, determination of the viable seed fraction and its longevity in the soil seed reserves, and prediction of population response to regional climate change based on demographic modeling.

Arizona, Nevada↗

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Alaska↗

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum ) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Systematic Biology↗

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

On thinning of chains in MCMC

1. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that has revolutionised the analysis of ecological data, allowing the fitting of complex models in a Bayesian framework. Since 2001, there have been nearly 200 papers using MCMC in publications of the Ecological Society of America and the British Ecological Society, including more than 75 in the journal Ecology and 35 in the Journal of Applied Ecology . 2. We have noted that many authors routinely 'thin' their simulations, discarding all but every k th sampled value; of the studies we surveyed with details on MCMC implementation, 40% reported thinning. 3. Thinning is often unnecessary and always inefficient, reducing the precision with which features of the Markov chain are summarised. The inefficiency of thinning MCMC output has been known since the early 1990's, long before MCMC appeared in ecological publications. 4. We discuss the background and prevalence of thinning, illustrate its consequences, discuss circumstances when it might be regarded as a reasonable option and recommend against routine thinning of chains unless necessitated by computer memory limitations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: pre-assessment report

The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of Conservation Elements, Change Agents, and Management Questions developed during Phase I. The overall goal of the REAs being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant terrestrial and aquatic species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. For each Conservation Element, key ecological attributes will be evaluated to determine the status of each species and community. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change, or Change Agents, currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements in the future. The relationships between Change Agents and key ecological attributes will be summarized using conceptual models. The REA process is a two-phase process. Phase I (pre-assessment) includes developing and finalizing the lists of priority Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents, culminating in the REA Pre-Assessment Report. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the REA process. Chapter 2 describes the biophysical and anthropogenic features of the Southern Great Plains, and Chapter 3 explains the process used to identify Conservation Elements, Change Agents and Management Questionss. The remaining chapters each feature one of 19 Conservation Elements&mdash;6 ecological communities and 13 species (including 2 species assemblages)&mdash;to be addressed in Phase II. For each Conservation Element, we will address the four primary Change Agents&mdash;development, fire, invasive species, and climate change&mdash;required for the REA. In addition, we will evaluate insect pests and disease for particular Conservation Elements. Development includes effects related to energy and infrastructure, agricultural activities, and other human activities, including urbanization and recreation. An overview on the ecology and management issues for each Conservation Element is provided, including distribution and ecology, landscape structure and dynamics, and associated species of management concern affiliated with each Conservation Element. For each Conservation Element, effects of the Change Agents are described. An overview of potential key ecological attributes and potential Change Agents are summarized by conceptual models and tables. The tables provide an organizational framework and background information for evaluating the key ecological attributes and Change Agents in Phase II.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗