Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Basin Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

Inferring time‐varying recharge from inverse analysis of long‐term water levels

Water levels in aquifers typically vary in response to time‐varying rates of recharge, suggesting the possibility of inferring time‐varying recharge rates on the basis of long‐term water level records. Presumably, in the southwestern United States (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, southern California, and southern Utah), rates of mountain front recharge to alluvial aquifers depend on variations in precipitation rates due to known climate cycles such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This investigation examined the inverse application of a one‐dimensional analytical model for periodic flow described by Lloyd R. Townley in 1995 to estimate periodic recharge variations on the basis of variations in long‐term water level records using southwest aquifers as the case study. Time‐varying water level records at various locations along the flow line were obtained by simulation of forward models of synthetic basins with applied sinusoidal recharge of either a single period or composite of multiple periods of length similar to known climate cycles. Periodic water level components, reconstructed using singular spectrum analysis (SSA), were used to calibrate the analytical model to estimate each recharge component. The results demonstrated that periodic recharge estimates were most accurate in basins with nearly uniform transmissivity and the accuracy of the recharge estimates depends on monitoring well location. A case study of the San Pedro Basin, Arizona, is presented as an example of calibrating the analytical model to real data.

Water Resources Research↗

The role of topography on catchment‐scale water residence time

The age, or residence time, of water is a fundamental descriptor of catchment hydrology, revealing information about the storage, flow pathways, and source of water in a single integrated measure. While there has been tremendous recent interest in residence time estimation to characterize watersheds, there are relatively few studies that have quantified residence time at the watershed scale, and fewer still that have extended those results beyond single catchments to larger landscape scales. We examined topographic controls on residence time for seven catchments (0.085–62.4 km 2 ) that represent diverse geologic and geomorphic conditions in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Our primary objective was to determine the dominant physical controls on catchment‐scale water residence time and specifically test the hypothesis that residence time is related to the size of the basin. Residence times were estimated by simple convolution models that described the transfer of precipitation isotopic composition to the stream network. We found that base flow mean residence times for exponential distributions ranged from 0.8 to 3.3 years. Mean residence time showed no correlation to basin area (r 2 < 0.01) but instead was correlated (r 2 = 0.91) to catchment terrain indices representing the flow path distance and flow path gradient to the stream network. These results illustrate that landscape organization (i.e., topography) rather than basin area controls catchment‐scale transport. Results from this study may provide a framework for describing scale‐invariant transport across climatic and geologic conditions, whereby the internal form and structure of the basin defines the first‐order control on base flow residence time.

Water Resources Research↗

Growth patterns of invasive Silver Carp in the Mississippi River basin

Silver Carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) are an invasive fish in the Mississippi River Basin. Their rapid expansion over recent decades coupled with extraordinary growth rates have arguably caught many by surprise. Understanding the atypical growth rates that could be the driving force behind the Silver Carp's explosive expansion may be crucial for development of management strategies. Towards this goal, I synthetized existing data on the growth and maturity patterns of Silver Carp. I compiled 62 estimates of growth representing populations of native Silver Carp in East Asia and invasive Silver Carp in the Mississippi River Basin. A remarkably rapid increase in length at earlier ages, undocumented in their ancestral range, was a defining feature of Silver Carp in the Mississippi River Basin. Some of the fastest growth rates of Silver Carp were recorded in hypereutrophic floodplain lakes and at lower latitudes. Invasive Silver Carp frequently deviated from the growth patterns established by native species as evidenced by abnormally high growth coefficients ( K ) in relation to asymptotic length ( L ∞ ). There is evidence of genetic differentiation between native Silver Carp and those expanding in the Mississippi River Basin possibly resulting from genetic background of introductions, genetic drift, and ecological selection. There is also limited evidence of enemy release, allowing for reallocation of energy from defenses to the rapid growth; though speculative, this is a plausible hypothesis that merits further research. This overview of the growth patterns of invasive Silver Carp underscores the need for novel strategies to mitigate the rapid generation time induced by the atypical growth patterns.

Mississippi River basin↗

Drainage network structure and hydrologic behavior of three lake-rich watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Watersheds draining the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska are dominated by permafrost and snowmelt runoff that create abundant surface storage in the form of lakes, wetlands, and beaded streams. These surface water elements compose complex drainage networks that affect aquatic ecosystem connectivity and hydrologic behavior. The 4676 km 2 Fish Creek drainage basin is composed of three watersheds that represent a gradient of the ACP landscape with varying extents of eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial landforms. In each watershed, we analyzed 2.5-m-resolution aerial photography, a 5-m digital elevation model, and river gauging and climate records to better understand ACP watershed structure and processes. We show that connected lakes accounted for 19 to 26% of drainage density among watersheds and most all channels initiate from lake basins in the form of beaded streams. Of the > 2500 lakes in these watersheds, 33% have perennial streamflow connectivity, and these represent 66% of total lake area extent. Deeper lakes with over-wintering habitat were more abundant in the watershed with eolian sand deposits, while the watershed with marine silt deposits contained a greater extent of beaded streams and shallow thermokarst lakes that provide essential summer feeding habitat. Comparison of flow regimes among watersheds showed that higher lake extent and lower drained lake-basin extent corresponded with lower snowmelt and higher baseflow runoff. Variation in baseflow runoff among watersheds was most pronounced during drought conditions in 2007 with corresponding reduction in snowmelt peak flows the following year. Comparison with other Arctic watersheds indicates that lake area extent corresponds to slower recession of both snowmelt and baseflow runoff. These analyses help refine our understanding of how Arctic watersheds are structured and function hydrologically, emphasizing the important role of lake basins and suggesting how future lake change may impact hydrologic processes.

Alaska↗

Seismic wave propagation and basin amplification in the Wasatch Front, Utah

Ground‐motion analysis of more than 3000 records from 59 earthquakes, including records from the March 2020 M w "> M w 5.7 Magna earthquake sequence, was carried out to investigate site response and basin amplification in the Wasatch Front, Utah. We compare ground motions with the Bayless and Abrahamson (2019 ; hereafter, BA18) ground‐motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra, which was developed on crustal earthquake records from California and other tectonically active regions. The Wasatch Front records show a significantly different near‐source rate of distance attenuation than the BA18 model, which we attribute to differences in (apparent) geometric attenuation. Near‐source residuals show a period dependence of this effect, with greater attenuation at shorter periods ( ⁠ T &lt; 0.5 &#x2009;&#x2009; s "> T < 0.5 s ) and a correlation between period and the distance over which the discrepancy manifests ( ⁠ &#x223C; 20 &#x2013; 50 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ∼ 20 – 50 km ⁠ ). We adjusted the recorded ground motions for these regional path effects and solved for station site terms using linear mixed‐effects regressions, with groupings for events and stations. We analyzed basin amplification by comparing the site terms with the basin geometry and basin depths from two seismic‐velocity models for the region. Sites over the deeper parts of the sedimentary basins are amplified by factors of 3–10, relative to sites with thin sedimentary cover, with greater amplification at longer periods ( ⁠ T &#x2273; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; s "> T ≳ 1 s ). Average ground‐motion variability increases with period, and long‐period variability exhibits a slight increase at the basin edges. These results indicate regional seismic wave propagation effects requiring further study, and potentially a regionalized GMM, as well as highlight basin amplification complexities that may be incorporated into seismic hazard assessments.

Utah↗

Integrated provenance analysis of a complex orogenic terrane: Mesozoic uplift of the Bogda Shan and Inception of the Turpan-Hami Basin, NW China

We employ petrographic and advanced geochemical techniques to better document the evolution of the Turpan–Hami basin based on the unique geologic histories of the arc terranes that served as potential sources of Turpan–Hami deposits. First, a provenance study of Permian through Cretaceous sandstone of the Turpan–Hami basin reveals temporal and spatial changes in dominant source terranes that provided detritus to the basin. Volcanic-lithic-rich Upper Permian sandstone (mean Qm 19 F 18 Lt 63 ; Qp 7 Lvm 89 Lsm 4 ; Qm 48 P 39 K 13 ) followed by more quartzose compositions in Triassic sandstone (mean Qm 41 F 19 Lt 40 ; Qp 20 Lvm 75 Lsm 5 ; Qm 68 P 21 K 11 ) indicate progressive unroofing of the extinct northern and central Tian Shan arc terranes to the south of Turpan–Hami. A sharp change to sedimentary-lithic-rich Lower Jurassic sandstone (mean Qm 47 F 16 Lt 37 ; Qp 16 Lvm 42 Lsm 42 ; Qm 75 P 12 K 13 ) overlain by a return to volcanic–lithic-rich Middle Jurassic sandstone (mean Qm 39 F 21 Lt 40 ; Qp 14 Lvm 51 Lsm 35 ; Qm 65 P 21 K 14 ) points to the initial uplift and unroofing of the largely andesitic Bogda Shan to the north, which first shed its sedimentary cover as it emerged to become the partition between the Turpan–Hami and southern Junggar basins. Second, geochronological, trace-element, and Sm-Nd isotopic variations among granitoids in the late Paleozoic Tian Shan orogenic belt provide a further test of Mesozoic uplift of the Bogda Shan. On the basis of previous models of crustal compositions throughout the South, Central, and North Tian Shan, Bogda Shan, and East and West Junggar terranes, we infer that isotopically enriched granitic cobbles (average εNd i = −0.50, n = 6) contained in Lower Triassic deposits in the north-central Turpan–Hami basin were derived from the continental crustal Central Tian Shan terrane, south of Turpan–Hami, and not from the more oceanic North Tian Shan, Bogda Shan, and East and West Junggar terranes, north of the Turpan–Hami basin. We therefore infer that the ancestral Bogda Shan had not been uplifted by the Early Triassic, and that prior to this time, a unified Junggar–Turpan–Hami basin existed during Late Permian deposition of extensive lacustrine deposits

Turpan-Hami Basin↗

Distribution of surficial sediment in Long Island Sound and adjacent waters: Texture and total organic carbon

The surficial sediment distribution within Long Island Sound has been mapped and described using bottom samples, photography, and sidescan sonar, combined with information from the geologic literature. The distributions of sediment type and total organic carbon (TOC) reveal several broad trends that are largely related to the sea-floor geology, the bathymetry, and the effects of modern tidal- and wind-driven currents. Sediment types are most heterogeneous in bathymetrically complex and shallow nearshore areas; the heterogeneity diminishes and the texture fines with decreasing bottom-current energy. Lag deposits of gravel and gravelly sand dominate the surficial sediment texture in areas where bottom currents are the strongest (such as where tidal flow is constricted) and where glacial till crops out at the sea floor. Sand is the dominant sediment type in areas characterized by active sediment transport and in shallow areas affected by fine-grained winnowing. Silty sand and sand-silt-clay mark transitions within the basin from higher- to lower-energy environments, suggesting a diminished hydraulic ability to sort and transport sediment. Clayey silt and silty clay are the dominant sediment types accumulating in the central and western basins and in other areas characterized by long-term depositional environments. The amount of TOC in the sediments of Long Island Sound varies inversely with sediment grain size. Concentrations average more than 1.9% (dry weight) in clayey silt, but are less than 0.4% in sand. Generally, values for TOC increase both toward the west in the Sound and from the shallow margins to the deeper parts of the basin floor. Our data also suggest that TOC concentrations can vary seasonally.

Long Island Sound↗

Regional gravity and magnetic anomalies in the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho

Over the eastern Snake River Plain, the Bouguer gravity anomaly and the magnetic intensity are, in general, high. In detail, both the gravity and the magnetic anomalies are a complex of highs and lows, in contrast to the simpler anomalies over the western Snake River Plain. The broad gravity high associated with the eastern Snake River Plain cannot be produced by a dense mass at shallow depth under the plain, but must be produced either by a deep feature under the plain or by a broader, shallower feature extending well beyond the plain. The high could be produced by a thinning of the crust under the plain by 4.5 to 7 kilometers. The data suggest that the Cenozoic rocks of the plain are underlain by rocks that have density and magnetization similar to the density and magnetization of the pre-Cenozoic rocks north and south of the plain. The data do not suggest rifting of the upper crust such as is inferred for the western Snake River Plain. The plain is in approximate isostatic equilibrium with adjoining regions to the north and south and thus contrasts with the adjoining areas where the basin-and-range topography is not in isostatic equilibrium. The local gravity anomalies on the plain are probably produced by variations in the thickness of Cenozoic rocks, but the wavelength of the anomalies is about twice that of the basin-and-range structural features in areas adjoining the plain. The gravity expression of basin-and-range structural features does not extend far onto the plain. Magnetic anomalies on the plain are produced by Cenozoic volcanic rocks.

Idaho↗

An occurrence of disseminated uraninite in Wheeler Basin, Grand County, Colorado

Disseminated uraninite occurs in Wheeler Basin, Grand County, Colo., about 5 mi (8 km) southeast of Monarch Lake, in Precambrian metamorphic rocks consisting of migmatized gneiss and mixed gneiss and pegmatite. An intrusion of Precambrian Y Silver Plume Granite lies within 400 ft (122 m) of the occurrence. The disseminated uraninite is confined to parts of the host rock that are rich in biotite; highest grade found was 0.73 percent uranium. The disseminated uraninite occurs as cubes and grains, generally from 0.1 to 0.3 mm across. Unit cell edge of the uraninite, ≈ 5.48 A, suggests its pegmatitic origin. The origin of the uraninite disseminations is attributed by us to remobilization and concentration of elements during metamorphism caused by the intrusion of Silver Plume Granite. Uranium and lead isotopic analyses by K. R. Ludwig of uraninite and monazite from biotite concentrations confirm an apparent age of 1,450±20 m.y. for these minerals. This age is equivalent to that reported for the Silver Plume Granite. Although the Wheeler Basin occurrence is small in size, it has many similarities to the Rossing uranium deposit in South-West Africa.

Colorado↗

Geology of the Devonian black shales of the Appalachian basin

Black shales of Devonian age in the Appalachian basin are a unique rock sequence. The high content of organic matter, which imparts the characteristic lithology, has for years attracted considerable interest in the shales as a possible source of energy. Concurrent with periodic and varied economic exploitations of the black shales are geologic studies. The recent energy shortage prompted the U.S. Department of Energy through the Eastern Gas Shales Project of the Morgantown Energy Technology Center to underwrite a research program to determine the geologic, geochemical, and structural characteristics of the Devonian black shales in order to enhance the recovery of gas from the shales. Geologic studies produced a regional stratigraphic network that correlates the 15-foot sequence in Tennessee with 3,000 feet of interbedded black and gray shales in central New York. The classic Devonian black-shale sequence in New York has been correlated with the Ohio Shale of Ohio and Kentucky and the Chattanooga Shale of Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. Biostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic markers in conjunction with gamma-ray logs facilitated long range correlations within the Appalachian basin and provided a basis for correlations with the black shales of the Illinois and Michigan basins. Areal distribution of selected shale units along with paleocurrent studies, clay mineralogy, and geochemistry suggests variations in the sediment source and transport directions. Current structures, faunal evidence, lithologic variations, and geochemical studies provide evidence to support interpretation of depositional environments. In addition, organic geochemical data combined with stratigraphic and structural characteristics of the shale within the basin allow an evaluation of the resource potential of natural gas in the Devonian shale sequence.

Conference Paper↗

Analytical method codes and descriptions for well and outcrop samples: Eastern Gas Shales Project data system

The United States Geological Survey and Petroleum Information Corporation (PI) of Denver have created a large computerized file of sample data for the Eastern Gas Shales Project (EGSP) as a responsibility to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC), Morgantown, West Virginia. The EGSP was initiated in 1976 by METC to investigate gas resources in Devonian shales found in the Appalachian basin. An objective of the EGSP is to accumulate a data base characterizing these shale units which can be used to assess future development of the gas resource. More than 30 government and industry participants served as contractors and contributed data from their research.

Open-File Report↗

Geostatistical analysis of tritium, groundwater age and other noble gas derived parameters in California

Key characteristics of California groundwater systems related to aquifer vulnerability, sustainability, recharge locations and mechanisms, and anthropogenic impact on recharge are revealed in a spatial geostatistical analysis of a unique data set of tritium, noble gases and other isotopic analyses unprecedented in size at nearly 4000 samples. The correlation length of key groundwater residence time parameters varies between tens of kilometers ( 3 H; age) to the order of a hundred kilometers ( 4 He ter ; 14 C; 3 He trit ). The correlation length of parameters related to climate, topography and atmospheric processes is on the order of several hundred kilometers (recharge temperature; δ 18 O). Young groundwater ages that highlight regional recharge areas are located in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, in the southern Santa Clara Valley Basin, in the upper LA basin and along unlined canals carrying Colorado River water, showing that much of the recent recharge in central and southern California is dominated by river recharge and managed aquifer recharge. Modern groundwater is found in wells with the top open intervals below 60 m depth in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley, Santa Clara Valley and Los Angeles basin, as the result of intensive pumping and/or managed aquifer recharge operations.

California↗

Local amplification of seismic waves from the Denali earthquake and damaging seiches in Lake Union, Seattle, Washington

The Mw7.9 Denali, Alaska earthquake of 3 November, 2002, caused minor damage to at least 20 houseboats in Seattle, Washington by initiating water waves in Lake Union. These water waves were likely initiated during the large amplitude seismic surface waves from this earthquake. Maps of spectral amplification recorded during the Denali earthquake on the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) strong-motion instruments show substantially increased shear and surface wave amplitudes coincident with the Seattle sedimentary basin. Because Lake Union is situated on the Seattle basin, the size of the water waves may have been increased by local amplification of the seismic waves by the basin. Complete hazard assessments require understanding the causes of these water waves during future earthquakes.

Washington↗

Dust deposited on snow cover in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, 2011-2016: Compositional variability bearing on snow-melt effects

Light-absorbing particles in atmospheric dust deposited on snow cover (dust-on-snow, DOS) diminish albedo and accelerate the timing and rate of snow melt. Identification of these particles and their effects are relevant to snow-radiation modeling and thus water-resource management. Laboratory-measured reflectance of DOS samples from the San Juan Mountains (USA) were compared with DOS mass loading, particle sizes, iron mineralogy, carbonaceous matter type and content, and chemical compositions. Samples were collected each spring for water years 2011-2016, when individual dust layers had merged into one (all layers merged) at the snow surface. Average reflectance values of the six samples were 0.2153 (sd, 0.0331) across the visible wavelength region (0.4-0.7 µm) and 0.3570 (sd, 0.0498) over the full-measurement range (0.4-2.50 µm). Reflectance values correlated inversely to concentrations of ferric oxide, organic carbon (1.4-10 wt. %), magnetite (0.05-0.13 wt. %), and silt (PM63-3.9; median grain sizes averaged 21.4 µm) but lacked correspondence to total iron and PM10 contents. Measurements of reflectance and Mössbauer spectra and magnetic properties indicated that microcrystalline hematite and nano-size goethite were primarily responsible for diminished visible reflectance. Positive correlations between organic carbon and metals attributed to fossil-fuel combustion, with observations from electron microscopy, indicated that some carbonaceous matter occurred as black carbon. Magnetite was a surrogate for related light-absorbing minerals, dark rock particles, and contaminants. Similar analyses of DOS from other areas would help evaluate the influences of varied dust sources, wind-storm patterns, and anthropogenic inputs on snow melt and water resources in and beyond the Colorado River basin.

Colorado↗

Fluid expulsion sites on the Cascadia accretionary prism: mapping diagenetic deposits with processed GLORIA imagery

Point-discharge fluid expulsion on accretionary prisms is commonly indicated by diagenetic deposition of calcium carbonate cements and gas hydrates in near-surface (<10 m below seafloor; mbsf) hemipelagic sediment. The contrasting clastic and diagenetic lithologies should be apparent in side scan images. However, sonar also responds to variations in bottom slope, so unprocessed images mix topographic and lithologic information. We have processed GLORIA imagery from the Oregon continental margin to remove topographic effects. A synthetic side scan image was created initially from Sea Beam bathymetric data and then was subtracted iteratively from the original GLORIA data until topographic features disappeared. The residual image contains high-amplitude backscattering that we attribute to diagenetic deposits associated with fluid discharge, based on submersible mapping, Ocean Drilling Program drilling, and collected samples. Diagenetic deposits are concentrated (1) near an out-of-sequence thrust fault on the second ridge landward of the base of the continental slope, (2) along zones characterized by deep-seated strikeslip faults that cut transversely across the margin, and (3) in undeformed Cascadia Basin deposits which overlie incipient thrust faults seaward of the toe of the prism. There is no evidence of diagenetic deposition associated with the frontal thrust that rises from the dècollement. If the dècollement is an important aquifer, apparently the fluids are passed either to the strike-slip faults which intersect the dècollement or to the incipient faults in Cascadia Basin for expulsion. Diagenetic deposits seaward of the prism toe probably consist dominantly of gas hydrates.

Cascadia Basin↗

An apparent shear zone trending north‐northwest across the Mojave Desert into Owens Valley, eastern California

Strain rates measured at four geodetic networks in eastern California situated between northern Owens Valley and the Transverse Ranges along a small circle drawn about the Pacific‐North America pole of rotation are remarkably consistent. Each exhibits 0.14 μrad/yr simple right‐lateral engineering‐shear‐strain accumulation across the local vertical plane tangent to the small circle. Local faults ( e.g. , Owens Valley, Garlock, Helendale) traversing these networks are not as closely aligned with the vertical planes of maximum shear‐strain accumulation as is the local tangent to the small circle. A fifth network slightly east of the small circle shows no significant strain accumulation. Thus, a shear zone trending N35° W from near the eastern end of the big bend of the San Andreas fault to northern Owens Valley is indicated by these data. This corresponds to the Eastern California shear zone proposed on geological evidence by Dokka and Travis. The shear zone carries ∼8 mm/yr of the Pacific‐North America relative plate motion from the San Andreas fault north‐northwest across the Mojave Desert into Owens Valley and the northern Basin and Range province. The shear zone observed at the surface may be a manifestation of a through‐going subcrustal fault.

California↗

Sediment export by ice rafting from a coastal Polynya, Arctic Alaska, U.S.A.

Strong offshore winds in early 1989 produced a shore polynya that reached along the entire north coast of Alaska and eastward beyond the mouth of the Mackenzie River in Canada. From January through April, this open water periodically exposed the shelf to sediment entrainment by suspension freezing. This process requires turbulence and supercooled water, which results in the formation of frazil and anchor ice. The resulting granular, sediment-laden ice was observed to extend over 100 km seaward of the outer continental shelf after having been advected offshore. It was sampled to determine sediment type and to quantify the particle load. The particle size was mainly silt and clay, with local admixtures of as much as 27% sand and coarser clasts. Melted ice samples contained from 31 to nearly 600 mg L -1 of sediment. Combining these data with over 400 km of shipboard and aerial observations, photographs, and computer analysis of a summer Landsat image, we estimated the sediment load per unit area of sea ice. Seaward of the shelf, in regions of dense pack ice, a conservatively estimated sediment load was over 289 t km -2 . Using a westward summer drift rate of 3 cm s -1 , the sediment transport through a 1-km-long north-south segment is 67,418 t during 3 mo. In terms of regional sediment dynamics (littoral transport estimated at 10,000 t during the same period) and sediment budget (continental denudation estimated at 10 t km -2 during the same period), this number is very significant. Benthic microfossils indicate that bottom sediment incorporated in the ice came from water depths ranging from the inner neritic seaward to 50 m. The large load of shelf-derived sediment observed seaward of the continental shelf indicates that ice entrainment and transport cause shelf erosion. Nothing is known about sediment release over the Arctic Ocean Basin from these pulses of dirty ice that are periodically introduced into the Transpolar Drift.

Alaska↗

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify &ldquo;hot spots&rdquo; of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Population and Environment↗