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Broken connections of wetland cultural knowledge

As global agriculture intensifies, cultural knowledge of wetland utilization has eroded as natural resources become more stressed, and marginal farmers move away from the land. The excellent paper by Fawzi et al. (2016) documents a particularly poignant case of traditional knowledge loss among the Marsh Arab women of Iraq. Through interviews, the authors document the breakdown of skill transfer from the older to younger generation of women. The authors link the loss of their cultural knowledge with the loss of wetlands in the region. Women no longer can help provide for their families using wetland products, and along with that, their ancient knowledge of plant usage is lost. These ancient skills included medicinal uses, and reed harvesting for weaving and water buffalo fodder. As, the majority of the Mesopotamian Marshes have dried, this way of life is being forgotten (Fawzi et al. 2015). The global tragedy is that while the careful alliance of wetlands and people have sustained human cultures for millennia, degraded wetlands lose their ability to provide these services (Maltby 1980).

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: Creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Sustainability Science↗

Catalyzing change: A literature review on the implementation of the Nature Futures Framework

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF), developed under the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), serves as a catalyst for advancing new scenarios and models focused on biodiversity and ecosystem services within the broader research community. In particular, the framework facilitates the development of scenarios and models that can help guide change processes toward desirable futures for nature and people. This paper assesses 31 studies that have engaged with the NFF since its introduction in 2020, aiming to identify which research areas have been addressed, and where development needs remain. The applications exhibit a large diversity in terms of locations, spatial scales, methods, outputs, and stakeholder involvement. The most common use of the framework has been in developing visions and scenarios. Nearly all studies engaged with diverse values of nature through the framework’s fundamental value perspectives: ‘Nature for Society’, ‘Nature for Nature’, and ‘Nature as Culture/One with Nature’. While the framework is generally perceived as useful, challenges remain in integrating the NFF across multiple scales and fully incorporating plural values, particularly in measuring relational aspects and avoiding Western-centric biases. Future research priorities include developing integrated, quantitative studies and exploring transformative pathways to enhance the framework's effectiveness in driving sustainable outcomes. Overall, the growing body of work using the NFF provides a strong foundation for distilling best practices, facilitating large-scale applications, and achieving the framework's objectives.

Sustainability Science↗

The perspective of youth: Envisioning transformative pathways and desirable futures for people and nature

This paper examines the pathways to desirable nature futures as envisioned by 22 young people from all United Nations regions and diverse cultural backgrounds who participated in the second edition of the IPBES Youth workshop (2022). The workshop employed the Three Horizons framework and the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to describe the plurality of youth visions for desirable nature futures and transformative pathways to achieve these visions. Based on the outcomes of the workshop, we conducted a qualitative content analysis categorizing the ideas and quantitatively assessed commonalities and differences among workshop groups, which were based on the NFF perspectives (nature for nature, nature for society, nature as culture, and a group in between perspectives). There were important differences in the visions and pathways articulated by the groups, but also commonalities, such as the importance of governance, community-based approaches, and education for achieving desirable nature futures. We also discuss the importance of flexibility in the NFF to accommodate diverse perspectives and involvement of youth in shaping global sustainability agendas. While many ideas raised by young people during this workshop align with existing conservation narratives, the study reveals the need to foster new and innovative ideas to drive transformative change that is sensitive to diverse contexts, histories, and experiences.

Sustainability Science↗

How to identify win–win interventions that benefit human health and conservation

To reach the Sustainable Development Goals, we may need to act on synergies between some targets while mediating trade-offs between other targets. But what, exactly, are synergies and trade-offs, and how are they related to other outcomes, such as ‘win–win’ solutions? Finding limited guidance in the existing literature, we developed an operational method for distinguishing win–wins from eight other possible dual outcomes (lose–lose, lose–neutral and so on). Using examples related to human health and conservation, we illustrate how interdisciplinary problem-solvers can use this framework to assess relationships among targets and compare multi-target interventions that affect people and nature.

Nature Sustainability↗

Supplying ecosystem services on US rangelands

Rangelands comprise 40% of the conterminous United States and they supply essential ecosystem services to society. A scenario assessment was conducted to determine how accelerating biophysical and societal drivers may modify their future availability. Four scenarios emerged: two may maintain rural communities by sustaining the prevailing ecosystem service of beef cattle production, and two may transform rural communities through expansion of renewable energy technologies and infusion of external capital from amenity land sales. Collaborative organizations representing diverse societal sectors may most effectively identify and manage trade-offs among ecosystem service availability, and equitably prioritize food and energy security, environmental quality and cultural identity.

Nature Sustainability↗

Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport

Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.

Nature Sustainability↗

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

The Nitrogen Footprint Tool network: A multi-institution program to reduce nitrogen pollution

Anthropogenic sources of reactive nitrogen have local and global impacts on air and water quality and detrimental effects on human and ecosystem health. This paper uses the nitrogen footprint tool (NFT) to determine the amount of nitrogen (N) released as a result of institutional consumption. The sectors accounted for include food (consumption and upstream production), energy, transportation, fertilizer, research animals, and agricultural research. The NFT is then used for scenario analysis to manage and track reductions, which are driven by the consumption behaviors of both the institution itself and its constituent individuals. In this paper, the first seven completed institution nitrogen footprint results are presented. The institution NFT network aims to develop footprints for many institutions to encourage widespread upper-level management strategies that will create significant reductions in reactive nitrogen released to the environment. Energy use and food purchases are the two largest sectors contributing to institution nitrogen footprints. Ongoing efforts by institutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also help to reduce the nitrogen footprint, but the impact of food production on nitrogen pollution has not been directly addressed by the higher-ed sustainability community. The NFT Network found that institutions could reduce their nitrogen footprints by optimizing food purchasing to reduce consumption of animal products and minimize food waste, as well as reducing dependence on fossil fuels for energy.

Sustainability↗

Minimising visitor impacts to protected areas: The efficacy of low impact education programmes

Protected area managers, tourism providers, and other organisations commonly employ education programmes to address visitation-related impairment of natural and cultural resources, social conditions, and neighbouring communities. These programmes have different names (Leave No Trace, Codes of Conduct, Environmental Guidelines for Tourists) but share common objectives: to sustain opportunities for high quality visitor experiences while avoiding or minimising associated negative impacts to protected area resources, visitor experiences, and park neighbours. Theoretical and empirical research studies in the United States are reviewed to evaluate the efficacy of educational efforts that seek to encourage adoption of low impact behaviours. Findings reveal that most of the visitor education efforts evaluated did effectively alter visitor knowledge, behaviour and/or resource and social conditions in the intended direction. These findings, including discussions of message content, delivery, audience characteristics and theoretical grounding, provide insights for improving the efficacy of future educational efforts.

Journal of Sustainable Tourism↗

Shaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits

Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in stressed agricultural landscapes can recover biodiversity and create co-benefits during transitions to sustainability. We apply our approach in California's San Joaquin Valley where groundwater regulations are driving significant land use change. We link agricultural-economic and land use change models to generate plausible landscapes with different cropping patterns, including temporary fallowing and permanent retirement. We find that a large fraction of the reduced cultivation is met through temporary fallowing, but still estimate over 86,000 hectares of permanent retirement. We then apply systematic conservation planning to identify optimized restoration solutions that secure at least 10,000 hectares of high quality habitat for each of five representative endangered species, accounting for spatially varying opportunity costs specific to each plausible future landscape. The analyses identified consolidated areas common to all land use scenarios where restoration could be targeted to enhance habitat by utilizing land likely to be retired anyway, and by shifting some retirement from regions with low habitat value to regions with high habitat value. We also show potential co-benefits of retirement (derived from avoided nitrogen loadings and soil carbon sequestration), though these require careful consideration of additionality. Our approach provides a generalizable means to inform multi-benefit adaptation planning in response to agricultural stressors.

California↗

Evaluating the performance of multiple precipitation datasets over the transboundary Ili River Basin between China and Kazakhstan

The Ili River Basin is characterized by complex topography and diverse climatic zones with limited in situ observations. This study evaluates the performance of six widely used precipitation datasets, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data), ERA5_Land (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ECMWF Reanalysis 5_Land), GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre), IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM), PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), and TerraClimate, against ground-based data from 2001 to 2023. The evaluation is conducted across multiple spatial scales and temporal resolutions. At the basin scale, most datasets exhibit strong correlations with in situ observations across all temporal scales (r > 0.7), except for PERSIANN, which demonstrates a relatively weaker performance during summer and winter (r < 0.6). All datasets except ERA5_ Land show low annual and monthly bias (<5%), although larger errors are observed during summer, particularly for IMERG and PERSIANN. Dataset performance generally declines with increasing elevation. Basin-wide gridded evaluations reveal distinct spatial variations across all elevation zones, with CHIRPS showing the strongest ability to capture orographic precipitation gradients throughout the basin. All datasets correctly identified 2008 as a drought year and 2016 as a wet year, even though the magnitude and spatial resolution of the anomalies varied among them. These findings highlight the importance of selecting precipitation datasets that are suited to the complex topographic and climatic characteristics of transboundary basins. Our study provides valuable insights for improving hydrological modeling and can be used for water sustainability and flood–drought mitigation support activities in the Ili River Basin.

Ili River Basin↗

Contribution of traffic emissions to PM2.5 concentrations at bus stops in Denver, Colorado

Individuals are routinely exposed to traffic-related air pollution on their commutes, which has significant health impacts. Mitigating exposure to traffic-related pollution is a key urban sustainability concern. In Denver, Colorado, low-income Americans are more likely to rely on buses and spend time waiting at bus stops. Evaluating the contribution of traffic emissions at bus stops can provide important information on risks experienced by these populations. We measured PM 2.5 constituents at eight bus stops and one background reference site in Denver, in the summer of 2023. Source profiles, including gasoline emissions from traffic, were estimated using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis of PM 2.5 constituents collected at a Chemical Speciation Network site in our study region. The contributions of the different sources at each bus stop were estimated by regressing the vector of species concentrations at each site (dependent variable) on the source-profile matrix from the PMF analysis (independent variables). Traffic-related emissions (~2.5–6.6 μg/m 3 ) and secondary organics (~3–5 μg/m 3 ) contributed to PM 2.5 at the bus stops in our dataset. The highest traffic-related emissions-derived PM 2.5 concentrations were observed at bus stops near local sources: a gas station and a car wash. The contribution of traffic-related emissions was lower at the background site (~1 μg/m 3 ).

Colorado↗

Remote sensing for wetland mapping and historical change detection at the Nisqually River Delta

Coastal wetlands are important ecosystems for carbon storage and coastal resilience to climate change and sea-level rise. As such, changes in wetland habitat types can also impact ecosystem functions. Our goal was to quantify historical vegetation change within the Nisqually River watershed relevant to carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and wetland sustainability, and identify watershed-scale anthropogenic and hydrodynamic drivers of these changes. To achieve this, we produced time-series classifications of habitat, photosynthetic pathway functional types and species in the Nisqually River Delta for the years 1957, 1980, and 2015. Using an object-oriented approach, we performed a hierarchical classification on historical and current imagery to identify change within the watershed and wetland ecosystems. We found a 188.4 ha (79%) increase in emergent marsh wetland within the Nisqually River Delta between 1957 and 2015 as a result of restoration efforts that occurred in several phases through 2009. Despite these wetland gains, a total of 83.1 ha (35%) of marsh was lost between 1957 and 2015, particularly in areas near the Nisqually River mouth due to erosion and shifting river channels, resulting in a net wetland gain of 105.4 ha (44%). We found the trajectory of wetland recovery coincided with previous studies, demonstrating the role of remote sensing for historical wetland change detection as well as future coastal wetland monitoring.

Washington↗

Salinification of coastal wetlands and freshwater management to support resilience

Climates are rapidly changing in wetland ecosystems around the world and historical land-use change is not always given enough consideration in climate adaptation discussions. Historical changes to hydrology and other key environments can exacerbate vegetation stress; e.g., recent drought and flood episodes are likely more extreme because of climate change. The contributions of global and regional changes that affect groundwater and surface water availability all need consideration in conservation planning including sea-level rise, coastal subsidence and compaction, fluid extraction, and floodplain reengineering. Where subsidence is not too extreme, healthy coastal vegetation often can keep ahead of sea-level rise by accreting elevation through sedimentary and/or biogenic processes. Better water conservation and minimum water delivery during drought may support foundational species and avoid wetland collapse. Local approaches have been developed to rewet inland floodplains decades after their reengineering for agricultural and urban development to support biodiversity in salinified coastal wetlands. The purpose of this paper is to describe inland wetland remediation techniques that may also be useful to increase freshwater delivery to coastal wetlands experiencing salinification. While some salinified coastal ecosystems may transition in the future, attempts can be made to remediate salinification related to historical land use in support of wetland conservation, health, and sustainability.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

Flooding and forest succession in a modified stretch along the Upper Mississippi River

This research examines the effect of a rare flood on floodplain forest regeneration in a 102-km stretch of the Mississippi River beginning 21 km above the mouth of the Ohio River. The river has been restricted by levees and navigation structures and subjected to sediment dredging to maintain a stable navigation channel. Because the bank erosion–accretion process has been slowed or eliminated, cottonwood ( Populus spp.) and willow ( Salix spp . ) communities regenerate poorly in the modified river environment. An unusually large flood in 1993 destroyed the entire ground vegetation layer, killing 77.2% of the saplings and 32.2% of the trees. The flood created an alternative mechanism for cottonwood and willow to regenerate under canopy openings, enabling the community type composition of the present-day forest to be sustained for the next 50 years. Over time, however, the forest will likely exhibit considerable compositional fluctuation.

Mississippi River↗

Suspended particulate layers and internal waves over the southern Monterey Bay continental shelf: an important control on shelf mud belts?

Physical and optical measurements taken over the mud belt on the southern continental shelf of Monterey Bay, California documented the frequent occurrence of suspended particulate matter features, the majority of which were detached from the seafloor, centered 9–33 m above the bed. In fall 2011, an automated profiling mooring and fixed instrumentation, including a thermistor chain and upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profiler, were deployed at 70 m depth for 5 weeks, and from 12 to 16 October a long-range autonomous underwater vehicle performed across-shelf transects. Individual SPM events were uncorrelated with local bed shear stress caused by surface waves and bottom currents. Nearly half of all observed SPM layers occurred during 1 week of the study, 9–16 October 2011, and were advected past the fixed profiling mooring by the onshore phase of semidiurnal internal tide bottom currents. At the start of the 9–16 October period, we observed intense near-bed vertical velocities capable of lifting particulates into the middle of the water column. This “updraft” event appears to have been associated with nonlinear adjustment of high-amplitude internal tides over the mid and outer shelf. These findings suggest that nonlinear internal tidal motions can erode material over the outer shelf and that, once suspended, this SPM can then be transported shoreward to the middle and shallow sections of the mud belt. This represents a fundamental broadening of our understanding of how shelf mud belts may be built up and sustained.

California↗

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗