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Water Resources Data, New Jersey, Water Year 2002, Volume 1. Surface-Water Data

Water-resources data for the 2002 Water Year for New Jersey are presented in three volumes, and consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality of ground water. Volume 1 contains discharge records for 93 gaging stations; tide summaries at 31 gaging stations; and stage and contents at 39 lakes and reservoirs. Also included are stage and discharge for 104 crest-stage partial-record stations and stage-only at 31 tidal crest-stage gages. Locations of these sites are shown in figures 8-11. Additional water data were collected at various sites that are not part of the systematic data-collection program. Discharge measurements were made at 201 low-flow partial-record stations and 121 miscellaneous sites.

Water Data Report↗

Water resources data, New York, water year 1996; Volume 1. Eastern New York; excluding Long Island

Introduction Water-resources data for the 1996 water year for New York consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage, contents, and water quality of lakes and reservoirs; ground-water levels; and precipitation quality. This volume contains records for water discharge at 122 gaging stations; stage only at 7 gaging stations; stage and contents at 4 gaging stations, and 18 other lakes and reservoirs; water quality at 28 gaging stations and 1 precipitation-quality station; and water levels at 3 observation wells. Also included are data for 33 crest-stage partial-record stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites not involved in the systematic data-collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements and analyses in this volume. These data together with the data in Volumes 2 and 3 represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with State, Municipal, and Federal agencies in New York. Records of discharge and stage of streams, and contents and stage of lakes and reservoirs, were first published in a series of U.S. Geological Survey water-supply papers entitled, “Surface Water Supply of the United States.” Through September 30, 1960, these water-supply papers were in an annual series and then in a 5-year series for 1961-65 and 1966-70. Records of water quality, water temperatures, and suspended sediment were published from 1941 to 1970 in an annual series of water-supply papers entitled “Quality of Surface Waters of the United States.” Records of ground-water levels were published from 1935 to 1974 in a series of water-supply papers entitled “Ground-Water Levels in the United States.” Water-supply papers may be consulted in the libraries of the principal cities and universities in the United States or may be purchased from the U.S. Geological Survey, Branch of Distribution, 604 South Pickett Street, Alexandria, VA 22304. Since the 1961 water year, streamflow data and since the 1964 water year, water-quality data have been released by the Geological Survey in annual reports on a State-boundary basis. These reports provided rapid release of water data in each state shortly after the end of the water year. Through 1970 the data were also released in the water-supply paper series mentioned above. Streamflow and water-quality data beginning with the 1971 water year, and ground-water data beginning with the 1975 water year are published only in reports on a State-boundary basis. Beginning with the 1975 water year, these Survey reports carry an identification number consisting of the two-letter State abbreviation, the last two digits of the water year, and the volume number. For example, this volume is identified as “U.S. Geological Survey Water-Data Report NY-96-1.” Water-data reports are for sale in paper copy or in microfiche by the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161. Additional information, including current prices for ordering specific reports, may be obtained from the District Office at the address given on the back of the title page or by telephone (518) 285-5600.

New York↗

Simulation of the shallow hydrologic system in the vicinity of Middle Genesee Lake, Wisconsin, using analytic elements and parameter estimation

Middle Genesee Lake is a ground-water flow-through lake located in a developing area in southeastern Wisconsin. Because the lake is in good connection with the shallow ground-water system, hydrologic stresses to the shallow ground-water system could adversely affect the lake system. In order to assess the effects of potential stresses on the lake, a study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Middle Genesee Lake Management District. The objective of the study was to identify areas that contribute ground water to the lake and estimate the hydrologic budget of the lake and hydraulic parameters affecting ground-water flow. A two-dimensional, steady-state analytic element model of the lake and surrounding area was developed using the computer code GFLOW. A parameter estimation model, UCODE, was used to optimize the calibration to measured water levels and streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate the effect of three hypothetical stress scenarios on the stage of Middle Genesee Lake; the simulations were linked to UCODE, which formally incorporated parameter uncertainty into 95-percent confidence intervals around the simulated value. The scenarios included: (1) pumping from upgradient irrigation wells, (2) pumping from Lower Genesee Lake to lower lake levels, and (3) reduction in recharge resulting from development. The results of the simulations demonstrated that lake levels could be affected by hydrologic stresses in the shallow hydrologic system, with effects ranging from a 2.7 feet decline in lake stage resulting from pumping in Lower Genesee Lake to a 0.1 feet decline in lake stage from development in part of the upgradient recharge area. The range of lake stage decline increased when parameter uncertainty was included, from a decline of 3.1 feet for pumping from Lower Genesee Lake to no reduction in lake stage for the development in the recharge area. Whereas these simulated effects are within the natural variation in lake stage, they represent a systematic reduction of ground-water flow to the lake. Therefore, these hypothetical stresses are expected to establish a new, lower, baseline lake stage over which the natural variation due to climatic effects are added and subtracted.

Wisconsin↗

Documentation of a computer program to simulate lake-aquifer interaction using the MODFLOW ground water flow model and the MOC3D solute-transport model

Heads and flow patterns in surficial aquifers can be strongly influenced by the presence of stationary surface-water bodies (lakes) that are in direct contact, vertically and laterally, with the aquifer. Conversely, lake stages can be significantly affected by the volume of water that seeps through the lakebed that separates the lake from the aquifer. For these reasons, a set of computer subroutines called the Lake Package (LAK3) was developed to represent lake/aquifer interaction in numerical simulations using the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional, finite-difference, modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW and the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional method-of-characteristics solute-transport model MOC3D. In the Lake Package described in this report, a lake is represented as a volume of space within the model grid which consists of inactive cells extending downward from the upper surface of the grid. Active model grid cells bordering this space, representing the adjacent aquifer, exchange water with the lake at a rate determined by the relative heads and by conductances that are based on grid cell dimensions, hydraulic conductivities of the aquifer material, and user-specified leakance distributions that represent the resistance to flow through the material of the lakebed. Parts of the lake may become "dry" as upper layers of the model are dewatered, with a concomitant reduction in lake surface area, and may subsequently rewet when aquifer heads rise. An empirical approximation has been encoded to simulate the rewetting of a lake that becomes completely dry. The variations of lake stages are determined by independent water budgets computed for each lake in the model grid. This lake budget process makes the package a simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer. Implementation of a lake water budget requires input of parameters including those representing the rate of lake atmospheric recharge and evaporation, overland runoff, and the rate of any direct withdrawal from, or augmentation of, the lake volume. The lake/aquifer interaction may be simulated in both transient and steady-state flow conditions, and the user may specify that lake stages be computed explicitly, semi-implicitly, or fully-implicitly in transient simulations. The lakes, and all sources of water entering the lakes, may have solute concentrations associated with them for use in solute-transport simulations using MOC3D. The Stream Package of MODFLOW-2000 and MOC3D represents stream connections to lakes, either as inflows or outflows. Because lakes with irregular bathymetry can exist as separate pools of water at lower stages, that coalesce to become a single body of water at higher stages, logic was added to the Lake Package to allow the representation of this process as a user option. If this option is selected, a system of linked pools (sublakes) is identified in each time step and stages are equalized based on current relative sublake surface areas.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Application of acoustic velocity meters for gaging discharge of three low-velocity tidal streams in the St. Johns River basin, northeast Florida

Index-velocity data collected with acoustic velocity meters, stage data, and cross-sectional area data were used to calculate discharge at three low-velocity, tidal streamflow stations in northeast Florida. Discharge at three streamflow stations was computed as the product of the channel cross-sectional area and the mean velocity as determined from an index velocity measured in the stream using an acoustic velocity meter. The tidal streamflow stations used in the study were: Six Mile Creek near Picolata, Fla.; Dunns Creek near Satsuma, Fla.; and the St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff. Cross-sectional areas at the measurement sections ranged from about 3,000 square feet at Six Mile Creek to about 18,500 square feet at St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff. Physical characteristics for all three streams were similar except for drainage area. The topography primarily is low-relief, swampy terrain; stream velocities ranged from about -2 to 2 feet per second; and the average change in stage was about 1 foot. Instantaneous discharge was measured using a portable acoustic current meter at each of the three streams to develop a relation between the mean velocity in the stream and the index velocity measured by the acoustic velocity meter. Using least-squares linear regression, a simple linear relation between mean velocity and index velocity was determined. Index velocity was the only significant linear predictor of mean velocity for Six Mile Creek and St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff. For Dunns Creek, both index velocity and stage were used to develop a multiple-linear predictor of mean velocity. Stage-area curves for each stream were developed from bathymetric data. Instantaneous discharge was computed by multiplying results of relations developed for cross-sectional area and mean velocity. Principal sources of error in the estimated discharge are identified as: (1) instrument errors associated with measurement of stage and index velocity, (2) errors in the representation of mean daily stage and index velocity due to natural variability over time and space, and (3) errors in cross-sectional area and mean-velocity ratings based on stage and index velocity. Standard errors for instantaneous discharge for the median cross-sectional area for Six Mile Creek, Dunns Creek, and St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff were 94, 360, and 1,980 cubic feet per second, respectively. Standard errors for mean daily discharge for the median cross-sectional area for Six Mile Creek, Dunns Creek, and St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff were 25, 65, and 455 cubic feet per second, respectively. Mean daily discharge at the three sites ranged from about -500 to 1,500 cubic feet per second at Six Mile Creek and Dunns Creek and from about -500 to 15,000 cubic feet per second on the St. Johns River at Buffalo Bluff. For periods of high discharge, the AVM index-velocity method tended to produce estimates accurate within 2 to 6 percent. For periods of moderate discharge, errors in discharge may increase to more than 50 percent. At low flows, errors as a percentage of discharge increase toward infinity.

Florida↗

Ground-water levels in an alluvial plain between the Tanana and Chena Rivers near Fairbanks, Alaska 1986-93

The aquifer of an alluvial plain between the Tanana and Chena Rivers near Fairbanks, Alaska, generally consists of highly transmissive sands and gravels under water-table conditions. During 1986-88, the U.S. Geological Survey studied the distribution of ground-water levels in the alluvial plain between Moose Creek Dam and the confluence of the Tanana and Chena Rivers. Moose Creek Dam is a flood-control structure on the Chena River that impounds water only during high flows in the Chena River or during tests of the dam's control gates. Ground-water-level information is needed to help design and place septic systems, buildings, and drainage structures. Using 38 existing wells and 83 wells drilled for this study during 1986 and 1987, ground-water levels were measured to determine the depth to the water table, its seasonal variation, and its relation to changes in river and reservoir stages. Water levels were continuously measured in 10 wells and periodically measured in 110 other wells until August 1988. During 1989, water levels were measured at least once in 59 wells. Three wells were equipped with water-level recorders through 1993. River stages were measured continuously at one gaging station on the Tanana River and at two stations on the Chena River. During summer months of 1986-88, stages and discharges in the Chena River were generally less than long-term mean monthly values, whereas mean monthly stages and discharges in the Tanana River fluctuated above and below long-term mean monthly values. Depths to water in monitoring wells ranged from slightly above land surface to about 21 feet below land surface. Depths to water in the alluvial plain were within 10 feet of land surface in most areas, but were within 5 feet of land surface in many low-lying areas. In general, the water table sloped to the northwest, from the Tanana River to the Chena River, at a gradient of about 4 feet per mile. Water levels in wells within about half a mile of either river responded rapidly to changes in river stage. During summer months of 1989-93, stages and discharges in the Chena River were generally higher than those during 1986-88, whereas stages and discharges in the Tanana River were similar to those during 1986-88. During 1989, peak water levels were higher in more than half the wells measured than during peak levels observed during 1986-88. Peak water levels were also 1.9 to 3.3 feet higher in 1991 or 1992 than peak values during 1986-88 in three wells equipped with water-level recorders. Water levels in wells near Moose Creek Dam responded rapidly to changes in water levels behind the dam. During one impoundment, water levels in a well 0.1 mile from the dam rose approximately 7 feet, to 4.8 feet below land surface.

Alaska↗

Synthesizing professional opinion of Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment drivers across the Great Lakes

Disentangling the suite of ecological drivers that explain recruitment variability for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Cisco C. artedi is of critical importance for their conservation, management, and stewardship in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, recruitment is inherently variable and can be regulated by many interacting processes, the relative importance of which can vary spatially, temporally, and ontogenetically. Given this complexity, comparisons across lakes and species that identify overarching hypotheses could efficiently guide future research. Using facilitated deliberations among fishery professionals (n = 57) with expertise in Great Lakes Coregonus spp., we synthesized current knowledge regarding (1) which biophysical processes are most important for driving contemporary recruitment between species, among lakes, and across life stages and (2) mechanisms by which those drivers regulate recruitment at key life stages. Participants affirmed the hypothesis that many drivers interact in complex ways to regulate Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment. Large-scale climatic processes affecting early life-stage growth and survival were consistently considered important. Other drivers were only deemed influential in certain lakes, highlighting perceived context-dependent recruitment dynamics. Notably, recruitment in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron was considered limited during larval and early juvenile life stages by low productivity, whereas spawning-habitat degradation and reduced metapopulation diversity were hypothesized to limit recruitment during embryonic and larval stages in Lakes Erie and Ontario. Several drivers were hypothesized to similarly impact Lake Whitefish and Cisco during early life stages, while drivers acting on post-larval life stages were typically distinct between species. The hypotheses synthesized herein can guide future research on Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗

Impacts of toxic thresholds of sediment-associated contaminants to robust redhorse (Moxostoma robustum) in the Lower Oconee River

The robust redhorse is a ?Species-at-Risk? in the lower Oconee River, GA. The population is composed of aging adults with little natural recruitment. Factors contributing to the loss of early-life stages are unknown, but contaminants associated with fine sediments may play a role. The objectives of this study were to determine toxicities of sediments and pore waters from the Oconee River to early-life stages of robust redhorse and to establish toxic thresholds of metals (Cd, Cu, Mn, Zn) and ammonia, elements potentially threatening this species. Depositional sediments were collected from the only known spawning site and three sites downstream of major tributaries. Sediment pore waters were extracted in the laboratory from all sites and in situ at two sites. Toxicity tests with sediments, pore waters and metal solutions were initiated with eggs, yolk-sac fry and swim-up fry to determine effects on the life stage initially exposed as well as effects manifested in later developmental stages. Survival and growth were test endpoints, and toxicity was observed in both sediments and pore waters. Although the yolk- sac stage was the most sensitive across all tests, sediment toxicity was elicited only in tests initiated with eggs that developed through the yolk-sac stage. Toxicity appeared to be due to Mn in sediment and pore water exposures, but was more prevalent in pore waters. Sediment handling and the associated effects on redox potential contributed to the elevated concentrations of Mn in pore waters. Pore waters extracted in situ had significantly less Mn and were less toxic than laboratory-extracted pore waters. These data suggest that sediment-associated Mn may impact early-life stages of robust redhorse in the Oconee River.

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,↗

Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon research and monitoring

In Chapter 1, we report on development and application of an integrated population model (IPM) for the natural-origin fall Chinook salmon population upstream of Lower Granite Dam. This year’s efforts represent the third update to the model. Initial efforts focused on generating juvenile and adult abundance estimates, with estimates of uncertainty, for informing the life-cycle model and estimating the effects of covariates on key demographic parameters. The goals of this year’s report are to 1) describe the modifications and advances made since the previous report, 2) to annually update and report the abundance estimates and other quantities used in the model, 3) to provide annual estimates of population parameters estimated by the IPM, and 4) to outline the next year’s tasks for advancing and/or applying the model. Since our last report on the life-cycle model, we have made a number of changes including: 1) incorporating jack abundance and age-structure data into the observation model, 2) changing smolt-to-adult survival (SAR) for subyearling and yearling to partial SARs that represent the joint probability surviving and entering the ocean at a given juvenile age, 3) combining age categories for rarely observed ages, 4) using scale data from unmarked fish to estimate age structure, and 5) generating composite life-cycle demographic parameters (cumulative capacity and productivity) from stage-specific parameters. We also generated juvenile abundance estimates, extended the model to include three additional brood years (1992– 2021), and ran the model to forecast returns to Lower Granite in 2022. For posterior medians of life stage-specific parameters, we estimated a mean productivity of 438 natural-origin juvenile recruits per female spawner, a capacity of 1.36 million juveniles, and a mean smolt-to-adult survival (SAR) of 1.2%. We detected strong density-dependent regulation, with juvenile recruits per spawner declining to about 50 juvenile recruits per female spawner at high spawner abundance. Across the entire life cycle, these stage-specific parameters resulted in a median cumulative intrinsic productivity of 1.93 adult female recruits per female spawner and a median equilibrium abundance of 2,851 female spawners (7,842 total spawners). Annual juvenile productivity varied from about 250–1,000 juveniles per spawner but displayed no temporal trends or patterns. For the three most recent brood years added to the model, recruits per spawner were higher than average but well within the range of uncertainty observed over the entire time series. In contrast to juvenile recruitment variability, SAR varied considerably among years and exhibited two periods of high survival (1996–2001 and 2007–2012) when SAR ranged from 2% to 6% and cumulative productivity ranged from 2 to 8 recruits per spawner. Partial SARs revealed that yearling outmigrants contributed substantially to the high SARs in the first high-survival period, but the second period was dominated by subyearlings. Yearlings contributed >30% to SAR in most years prior to 2007, and <30% since 2007. Our two-stage IPM provides a wealth of information about population dynamics affecting two key life-stage transitions (spawner to juvenile, and juvenile to spawner) centered on passage at Lower Granite Dam. By summarizing these stage-specific demographic parameters across the entire life cycle, this information will be useful for informing the recovery status of this threatened population. Whereas previous versions introduced hydrosystem and ocean covariates into the model, this phase of model development focused on solidifying the underlying model structure by introducing the concept of partial SARs and developing composite productivity and capacity as a function of underlying stage-specific parameters. Given this advancement, our next steps are to re-incorporate covariates into the model, specifically to understand how different factors affect partial SARs of subyearling and yearlings. Longer term model developments include:1) incorporating hatchery fish to explicitly estimate their survival as an alternative method for estimating natural-origin age composition, 2) expanding the model’s structure to include the three major spawning aggregates, 3) more explicitly modeling hydrosystem effects including transportation, and 4) using the model to assess retrospective and prospective management actions. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) focused adult salmon survey efforts in the Snake River on deepwater redd searches and fish collection for parentage-based tagging (PBT) analyses. We use used a boat-mounted underwater video camera to count 99 deepwater redds at 16 of the 29 sites surveyed. Redd depths averaged 4.4 m. In conjunction with the Idaho Power Company, we collected genetic samples from 318 live fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and 19 carcasses at 40 unique geographic locations that spanned 91 river kilometers. Eighty fish were collected at three sites (High Range [rkm 332.3], Dug Bar [rkm 315.4], and Three Creek [rkm 384.0]), which accounted for 23% of all collected fish in 2022. Most (333 fish) post-spawned salmon were collected from early to mid-November just after the peak of spawning. A summary of 2021 PBT results produced by the Idaho Power Company can be found in Appendix A.2. Beach seining and PIT tagging of subyearling fall Chinook salmon was conducted in Snake and Salmon rivers to obtain information on population metrics and growth as well as to provide data for ongoing life-cycle modeling. In the Snake River, we collected 7,496 subyearlings, tagged 4,139, and recaptured 502 (12.1%). Using 8-mm tags in 45–49-mm fish allowed us to represent an additional 25% of the juvenile population through PIT tagging beyond just using standard 9- and 12-mm tags. In the Salmon River, we captured 206 natural subyearlings with the majority (52%) of fish being captured at two sites: rkm 20 and 26. We tagged 145 subyearlings and recaptured 9 fish. Many of the subyearlings we tagged in the Snake River were detected passing Lower Granite Dam, but only 4 fish tagged in the Salmon River were detected. In total we detected 484 (11.3%) tagged fish at Lower Granite Dam, and detection rates varied by tag size and passage route. More subyearlings were detected passing via the removable spill weir (RSW) earlier in the season while more fish were detected passing through the juvenile fish bypass system (JBS) earlier in the season while more fish were detected passing via the removable spill weir (RSW) later in the season. In general, fish tagged with 12-mm PIT tags had higher detection rates than fish tagged with smaller tags. Survival to Lower Granite Dam was low and ranged from 0.22 to 0.36. Season-wide, growth of subyearlings was higher in the lower reach than in the upper reach of the Snake River.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Hierarchical animal movement models for population-level inference

New methods for modeling animal movement based on telemetry data are developed regularly. With advances in telemetry capabilities, animal movement models are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Despite a need for population-level inference, animal movement models are still predominantly developed for individual-level inference. Most efforts to upscale the inference to the population level are either post hoc or complicated enough that only the developer can implement the model. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide an ideal platform for the development of population-level animal movement models but can be challenging to fit due to computational limitations or extensive tuning required. We propose a two-stage procedure for fitting hierarchical animal movement models to telemetry data. The two-stage approach is statistically rigorous and allows one to fit individual-level movement models separately, then resample them using a secondary MCMC algorithm. The primary advantages of the two-stage approach are that the first stage is easily parallelizable and the second stage is completely unsupervised, allowing for an automated fitting procedure in many cases. We demonstrate the two-stage procedure with two applications of animal movement models. The first application involves a spatial point process approach to modeling telemetry data, and the second involves a more complicated continuous-time discrete-space animal movement model. We fit these models to simulated data and real telemetry data arising from a population of monitored Canada lynx in Colorado, USA.

Environmetrics↗

Stopover ecology of red knots in southwestern James Bay during southbound migration

Many shorebirds rely on small numbers of staging sites during long annual migrations. Numerous shorebird species are declining and understanding the importance of these staging sites is important for successful conservation. We surveyed endangered rufa red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) staging in James Bay, Ontario, Canada, during southbound migration in 2017 and 2018. We used mark‐resight data and count data in an integrated Bayesian analysis to quantify migration phenology, estimate passage population size, and model the age structure of the stopover population. Many adult red knots arrived in James Bay in a single wave in early August in 2017, whereas adult red knots arrived in multiple smaller waves in July and mid‐August in 2018. These waves may correspond with breeding phenology where more red knots bred successfully and arrived in one large event in 2017 and the higher number of earlier arrivals in July 2018 may have been failed breeders. We included a binomial generalized linear model in the integrated analysis to estimate that 20% and 10% of staging red knots were juveniles in 2017 and 2018, respectively. In future applications, this method could provide a metric to assess breeding performance and develop our understanding of its role in population declines. Overall, we estimated that up to 23% of the estimated rufa red knot population staged in southwestern James Bay for an average of 10–12 days. The region is a key staging site for endangered red knots and could be included in conservation planning.

James Bay↗

Changes in nutrient dynamics of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese during spring migration

Waterfowl and other migratory birds commonly store nutrients at traditional staging areas during spring for later use during migration and reproduction. We investigated nutrient‐storage dynamics in the midcontinent population of greater white‐fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ; hereafter white‐fronted geese) at spring staging sites in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska during February–April and in southern Saskatchewan during April–May, 1998 and 1999. In Nebraska, lipid content of white‐fronted geese did not increase, and protein content changed little over time for most age and sex categories. In Saskatchewan, lipids increased 11.4 g/day (SE = 1.7) and protein content increased 1.6 g/day (SE = 0.6) in the sample of adult geese collected over a 3‐week period. A study conducted during 1979–1980 in the Rainwater Basin reported that white‐fronted geese gained 8.8–17.7 g of lipids per day during spring, differing greatly from our results 2 decades later. In addition, lipid levels were less in the 1990s compared to spring 1980 for adult geese nearing departure from staging sites in Saskatchewan. This shift in where geese acquired nutrient stores from Nebraska to more northern staging sites coincided with a decrease in availability of waste corn in Nebraska, their primary food source while staging at that stopover site, and an increase in cultivation of high‐energy pulse crops in Saskatchewan. White‐fronted geese exhibited flexibility in nutrient dynamics during spring migration, likely in response to landscape‐level variation in food availability caused by changes in agricultural trends and practices. Maintaining a wide distribution of wetlands in the Great Plains may allow spring‐staging waterfowl to disperse across the region and facilitate access to high‐energy foods over a larger cropland base.

Nebraska, Saskatchewan↗

Comparison of machine learning approaches used to identify the drivers of Bakken oil well productivity

Geologists and petroleum engineers have struggled to identify the mechanisms that drive productivity in horizontal hydraulically fractured oil wells. The machine learning algorithms of Random Forest (RF), gradient boosting trees (GBT) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were applied to a dataset containing 7311 horizontal hydraulically fractured wells drilled into the middle member of the Bakken Formation from 2010 through 2017. The initial goal is to use these data‐driven machine learning algorithms to identify the most important explanatory predictors of well productivity within nine subareas and the composite area. Predictor variables representing initial gas production, the initial 180‐day water cut, and vertical depth vary spatially and are identified with geologically favorable areas. Well‐completion predictors include the well lateral length, number of fracture stages, volume of proppant per stage, and the volume of injected fluids per stage. The performance of methods is compared based on a common test sample. The analysis then examines the comparative predictive performance of the three algorithms for 1330 wells that had initiated production after the initial 7311 well sample had been producing. The computations of predictor importance identified the initial 180‐day water cut and the 30‐day initial gas production predictors as having a dominant influence in most subareas and for the composite area. The relative importance of well completion predictor variables, that is, the number of fracture stages per well, volume of injected proppant per stage, volume of injected fluids per stage, and lateral length, varied considerably across the subareas. For the common test or holdout sample, the models calibrated with the XGBoost algorithm had superior predictive power. The predictive power of all the algorithms trained on the data from the original sample suffered some loss when tested with a sample of wells that had started production after the end of that period. Implications of the empirical findings and strategies to mitigate loss of predictive power are discussed in the concluding section.

Statistical Analysis and Data Mining↗

Ages, rare-earth element enrichment, and petrogenesis of tholeiitic and alkalic basalts from Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii

Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii (18×11 km), is a basaltic shield volcano with caldera-filling lavas, seven identified postshield vents, and at least two occurrences of apparent rejuvenated-stage eruptive. We examined 42 samples that represent all stages of Kahoolawe volcano stratigraphy for their petrography, whole-rock major-and trace-element contents, mineral compositions, and K−Ar ages. The two oldest shield samples have an average age of 1.34±0.08 Ma, and four postshield samples (3 are alkalic) average 1.15±0.03 Ma; ages of 1.08 and 0.99 Ma for two additional tholeiitic samples probably are minimum ages. Whole-rock major- and trace-element and mineral compositions of Kahoolawe shield and caldera-fill laves are generally similar to the lavas forming Kilauea and Mauna Loa tholeiitic shields, but in detail, Kahoolawe shield lavas have distinctive compositions. An unusual aspect of many postshield Ka-hoolawe lavas is anomalously high REE and Y abundances (up to 200 ppm La and 175 ppm Y) and negative Ce anomalies. These enrichments reflect surficial processes, where weathering and soil development promoted REE-Y transport at the weathering front. Major element abundances (MgO, 10–6 wt.%) for shield and caldera-fill basalts are consistent with fractionation of ol+px+pl in frequently replenished magma reservoirs. In general, tholeiitic basalts erupted from late vents are higher in SiO 2 than the shield lavas, and temporal differences in parental magma compositions are the likely explanation. Alkalic basalts that erupted from vents are comparable in composition to those at other Hawaiian volcanoes. Trace-element abundance ratios indicate that alkalic basalts represent either relatively lower degrees of melting of the shield source or a distinct source. Apparent rejuvenated-stage basalts (i.e., emplaced after substantial Kahoolawe erosion) are tholeiitic, unlike the rejuvenated-stages at other Hawaiian volcanoes (alkalic). Kahoolawe, like several other Hawaiian volcanoes, has intercalated tholeiitic and alkalic basalts in the postshield stage, but it is the only volcano that appears to have produced tholeiitic rejuvenated-stage lavas.

Hawaii↗

Geology and geochemistry of jasperoids from the Gold Bar district, Nevada

Gold Bar is one of several Carlin-type gold mining districts located in the Battle Mountain-Eureka trend, Nevada. It is composed of one main deposit, Gold Bar; five satellite deposits; and four resources that contain 1.6 Moz (50 t) of gold. All of the deposits and resources occur at the intersection of north-northwest- and northeast-trending high-angle faults in slope facies limestones of the Devonian Nevada Group exposed in windows through Ordovician basin facies siliciclastic rocks of the Roberts Mountains allochthon. Igneous intrusions and magnetic anomalies are notably absent. The Gold Bar district contains a variety of discordant and stratabound jasperoid bodies, especially along the Wall Fault zone, that were mapped and studied in some detail to identify the attributes of those most closely associated with gold ore and to constrain genetic models. Four types of jasperoids, J0, J1, J2, and J3, were distinguished on the basis of their geologic and structural settings and appearance. Field relations suggest that J0 formed during an early event. Petrographic observations, geochemistry, and ??18O values of quartz suggest it was overprinted by the hydrothermal event that produced ore-related J1, J2, and J3 jasperoids and associated gold deposits. The greater amount of siliciclastic detritus present in J0 jasperoids caused them to have higher ??18O values than J1,2,3 jasperoids hosted in underlying limestones. Ore-related jasperoids are composed of main-ore-stage replacements and late-ore-stage open-space filling quartz with variable geochemistry and an enormous range of ??18O values (24.5 and -3.7???). Jasperoids hosted in limestones with the most anomalous Au, Ag, Hg, ??(As, Sb, Tl) concentrations and the highest ??18O values are associated with the largest deposits. The 28??? range of jasperoid ??18O values is best explained by mixing between an 18O-enriched fluid and an 18O-depleted fluid. The positive correlation between the sizes of gold deposits and the ??18O composition of jasperoids indicates that gold was introduced by the 18O-enriched fluid. The lowest calculated ??18O value for water in equilibrium with late-ore-stage quartz at 200??C (-15???) and the measured ??D value of fluid inclusion water extracted from late-ore-stage orpiment and realgar (-116???) indicate that the 18O-depleted fluid was composed of relatively unexchanged meteoric water. The source of the 18O-enriched ore fluid is not constrained. The ??34S values of late-ore-stage realgar, orpiment, and stibnite (5.7-15.5???) and barite (31.5-40.9???) suggest that H2S and sulfate were derived from sedimentary sources. Likewise, the ??13C and ??18O values of late-stage calcite (-4.8 to 1.5??? and 11.5 to 17.4???, respectively) suggest that CO2 was derived from marine limestones. Based on these data and the apparent absence of any Eocene intrusions in the district, Gold Bar may be the product of a nonmagmatic hydrothermal system. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Mineralium Deposita↗

The 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche, Alaska: Deposit structures and emplacement dynamics

Supraglacial landslides result from the catastrophic failure of periglacial rock slopes and deposit large volumes of rock and ice onto the glacier surface. The most remarkable features of these landslides are their prominent long flowbands and a high mobility that exceeds that of their counterparts in other environments. Based on field surveys, high-resolution digital elevation models, and continuous seismic data, we show that the emplacement dynamics of the 2016 rock avalanche on Lamplugh Glacier were characterized by two distinct stages. During the first stage, the debris traveled about 5 km from the base of the slope. Clear long-period seismic signals during this stage record strong interactions of the rock avalanche debris with the ground, suggesting dynamic processes such as grain collisions and fragmentation. The second stage was essentially aseismic at long periods and dominated by low-friction sliding at slow deceleration rates. A higher density of flowbands and increased entrainment of snow from the runout path characterize the morphology of this second-stage distal deposition. Around the margins, lobes are offset by up to 400 m along major strike-slip faults, whereas within individual lobes, offsets between flowbands are much less pronounced (0 to < 10 m). The two-stage emplacement model may explain the higher apparent mobility of supraglacial landslides.

Alaska↗

Modeling the effects of serial off-gas reuse on the performance of a hooded surface oxygen obsorption system

A numerical model was used to evaluate the performance of a surface agitation system designed to contact commercial oxygen with water. The modeled system was unique in that oxygen-rich off-gas, normally discharged to the atmosphere, was directed in serial reuse through additional contact stages receiving untreated water. A correlation between the agitator mass-transfer coefficient and power demand, needed to calibrate the model, was established using a single-stage (37 W) contactor of 1·18 m 3 capacity. Additional tests, conducted with both single and three-stage equipment, verified model assumptions and performance predictions. Simulation runs indicated oxygen flow or power input required to meet a given effluent dissolved gas criterion can be substantially reduced by the off-gas reuse step; for example, to achieve an effluent dissolved oxygen of 24·1 mg/litre with a single stage agitator the oxygen feed rate needed was 61·5% greater than that required by a six-stage system receiving the same total power input (standard aeration efficiency, 0·5 kg/kW h; water flow rate, 100 litre/min; influent dissolved oxygen, 9·08 mg/litre at 15°C). The savings achieved increased with (1) greater target effluent dissolved oxygen concentrations, (2) lower oxygen feed rates, (3) higher input power levels, and (4) number of contact stages.

Aquacultural Engineering↗

Predator avoidance performance of larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) following short-term exposure to estrogen mixtures

Aquatic organisms exposed to endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) at early life-stages may have reduced reproductive fitness via disruption of reproductive and non-reproductive behavioral and physiological pathways. Survival to reproductive age relies upon optimal non-reproductive trait expression, such as adequate predator avoidance responses, which may be impacted through EDC exposure. During a predator–prey confrontation, larval fish use an innate C-start escape behavior to rapidly move away from an approaching threat. We tested the hypotheses that (1) larval fathead minnows exposed to estro gens, a primary class of EDCs, singularly or in mixture, suffer a reduced ability to perform an innate C-start behavior when faced with a threat stimulus; (2) additive effects will cause greater reductions in C-start behavior; and (3) effects will differ among developmental stages. In this study, embryos (post-fertilization until hatching) were exposed for 5 days to environmentally relevant concentrations of estrone (E1), 17-estradiol (E2), and 17-ethinylestradiol (EE2) singularly and in mixture. Exposed embryos were allowed to hatch and grow in control well water until 12 days old. Similarly, post-hatch fathead minnows were exposed for 12 days to these compounds. High-speed (1000 frames/s) video recordings of escape behavior were collected and transferred to National Institutes of Health Image for frame-by-frame anal- ysis of latency period, escape velocity, and total escape response (combination of latency period and escape velocity). When tested 12 days post-hatch, only E1 adversely affected C-start performance of larvae exposed as embryos. Conversely, larvae exposed for 12 days post-hatch did not exhibit altered escape responses when exposed to E1, while adverse responses were seen in E2 and the estrogen mixture. Ethinylestradiol exposure did not elicit changes in escape behaviors at either developmental stage. The direct impact of reduced C-start performance on survival, and ultimately, reproductive fitness provides an avenue to assess the ecological relevance of exposure in an assay of relatively short duration.

Aquatic Toxicology↗