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Level II scour analysis for Bridge 35 (RANDTH00650035) on Town Highway 65, crossing the Second Branch White River, Randolph, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure RANDTH00650035 on town highway 65 crossing the Second Branch White River, Randolph, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). Results of a Level I scour investigation also are included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I investigation provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTAOT) files, was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and is found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain section of the New England physiographic province of central Vermont. The 47.2-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the surface cover is pasture except for the downstream left bank which is forested. There is some woody vegetation on the immediate channel banks upstream of the bridge. In the study area, the Second Branch White River has a sinuous channel with alluvial boundaries and a slope of approximately 0.002 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 52 ft and an average channel depth of 7 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are sand and gravel with a median grain size (D 50 ) of 1.37 mm (0.0045 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I site visits on August 11, 1994 and December 1, 1994, indicated that the reach was laterally unstable. The town highway 65 crossing of the Second Branch White River is a 33-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of one 28-foot steel-beam span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written communication, July 29, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, stone abutments with wingwalls. The channel is skewed approximately 25 degrees to the opening while the opening-skew-to-roadway is 15 degrees. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1995). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.0 to 2.4 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the incipient-overtopping discharge which was 5,870 cfs less than the 100-year discharge. Abutment scour at the left abutment ranged from 5.7 to 13.9 ft. with the worst-case occurring at the 500-year discharge. Abutment scour at the right abutment ranged from 9.2 to 11.3 ft. with the worst-case occurring at the incipient-overtopping discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Vermont↗

Substantially greater carbon emissions estimated based on annual land-use transition data

Quantifying land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) effects on carbon sources and sinks has been very challenging because of the availability and quality of LULCC data. As the largest estuary in the United States, Chesapeake Bay is a rapidly changing region and is affected by human activities. A new annual land-use and land-cover (LULC) data product developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring and Analysis Program (LCMAP) from 2001 to 2011 was analyzed for transitions between agricultural land, developed land, grassland, forest land and wetland. The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator was used to simulate effects of LULCC and ecosystem disturbance in the south of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) on carbon storage and fluxes, with carbon parameters derived from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator. We found that during the study period: (1) areas of forest land, disturbed land, agricultural land and wetland decreased by 90, 82, 57, and 65 km 2 , respectively, but developed lands gained 293 km 2 (29 km 2 annually); (2) total ecosystem carbon stock in the CBW increased by 13 Tg C from 2001 to 2011, mainly due to carbon sequestration of the forest ecosystem; (3) carbon loss was primarily attributed to urbanization (0.224 Tg C·yr −1 ) and agricultural expansion (0.046 Tg C·yr −1 ); and (4) estimated carbon emissions and harvest wood products were greater when estimated with the annual LULC input. We conclude that a dense time series of LULCC, such as that of the LCMAP program, may provide a more accurate accounting of the effects of land use change on ecosystem carbon, which is critical to understanding long-term ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

Summer stream water temperature models for Great Lakes streams: New York

Temperature is one of the most important environmental influences on aquatic organisms. It is a primary driver of physiological rates and many abiotic processes. However, despite extensive research and measurements, synoptic estimates of water temperature are not available for most regions, limiting our ability to make systemwide and large-scale assessments of aquatic resources or estimates of aquatic species abundance and biodiversity. We used subwatershed averaging of point temperature measurements and associated multiscale landscape habitat conditions from over 3,300 lotic sites throughout New York State to develop and train artificial neural network models. Separate models predicting water temperature (in cold, cool, and warm temperature classes) within small catchment–stream order groups were developed for four modeling units, which together encompassed the entire state. Water temperature predictions were then made for each stream segment in the state. All models explained more than 90% of data variation. Elevation, riparian forest cover, landscape slope, and growing degree-days were among the most important model predictors of water temperature classes. Geological influences varied among regions. Predicted temperature distributions within stream networks displayed patterns of generally increasing temperature downstream but were patchy due to the averaging of water temperatures within stream size-classes of small drainages. Models predicted coldwater streams to be most numerous and warmwater streams to be generally associated with the largest rivers and relatively flat agricultural areas and urban areas. Model predictions provide a complete, georeferenced map of summer daytime mean stream temperature potential throughout New York State that can be used for planning and assessment at spatial scales from the stream segment class to the entire state.

New York↗

Seeing the forest and the trees: USGS scientist links local changes to global scale

The recent recipient of two major awards, Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, has loved trees since childhood. He is now considered an expert of world renown on the twin phenomena of forest changes and tree mortality resulting from climate warming and drought, and in 2010 was twice recognized for his scientific contributions. In December 2010, Dr. Allen was named a 2010 Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “for outstanding leadership in the synthesis of global forest responses to climate change, built from worldwide collaboration and a deep understanding of the environmental history of the southwestern United States.” In March 2010, he was honored with the Meritorious Service Award from the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of his outstanding vision, initiative, and scientific contributions to the USGS, DOI, and U.S. Department of Agriculture in establishing a model science program to support adaptive land management at the new Valles Caldera National Preserve in north-central New Mexico. Dr. Allen has authored more than 85 publications on landscape ecology and landscape change, from fire history and ecology to ecosystem responses to climate change. He has appeared on NOVA discussing fire ecology and on The Discovery Channel and Discovery Canada explaining the links between drought-induced tree mortality and climate warming, in addition to being interviewed and quoted in innumerable newspaper articles on both topics. But how did this unassuming scientist grow from nurturing maple saplings on 40 acres in Wisconsin to understanding forest system stress worldwide?

Report↗

Land cover and land use change

Climate can affect and be affected by changes in land cover (the physical features that cover the land such as trees or pavement) and land use (human management and activities on land, such as mining or recreation). A forest, for instance, would likely include tree cover but could also include areas of recent tree removals currently covered by open grass areas. Land cover and use are inherently coupled: changes in land-use practices can change land cover, and land cover enables specific land uses. Understanding how land cover, use, condition, and management vary in space and time is challenging. Changes in land cover can occur in response to both human and climate drivers. For example, demand for new settlements often results in the permanent loss of natural and working lands, which can result in localized changes in weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation. Aggregated over large areas, these changes have the potential to influence Earth’s climate by altering regional and global circulation patterns, changing the albedo (reflectivity) of Earth’s surface, and changing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. Conversely, climate change can also influence land cover, resulting in a loss of forest cover from climate-related increases in disturbances, the expansion of woody vegetation into grasslands, and the loss of beaches due to coastal erosion amplified by rises in sea level. Land use is also changed by both human and climate drivers. Land-use decisions are traditionally based on short-term economic factors. Land-use changes are increasingly being influenced by distant forces due to the globalization of many markets. Land use can also change due to local, state, and national policies, such as programs designed to remove cultivation from highly erodible land to mitigate degradation, legislation to address sea level rise in local comprehensive plans, or policies that reduce the rate of timber harvest on federal lands. Technological innovation has also influenced land-use change, with the expansion of cultivated lands from the development of irrigation technologies and, more recently, decreases in demand for agricultural land due to increases in crop productivity. The recent expansion of oil and gas extraction activities throughout large areas of the United States demonstrates how policy, economics, and technology can collectively influence and change land use and land cover. Decisions about land use, cover, and management can help determine society’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Report↗

Regional geochemical studies in parts of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, U.S.A.

A geochemical survey of the Sherbrooke and Lewiston 1° × 2° quadrangles was conducted from 1979 to 1982 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program. The area covers about 23,000 km 2 . The region is characterized by a temperate climate, abundant rainfall, and dense forests. The topography ranges from rolling and subdued to mountainous. Bedrock is generally covered by glacial deposits, lakes, and bogs. The bedrock includes metamorphic and plutonic rocks ranging in age from Precambrian to Cretaceous. Known mineral deposits within the area include massive-sulfide deposits, Cu-Mo porphyry deposits, minor base-metal vein deposits, minor Sn-bearing vein deposits, and minor Be-bearing skarn deposits.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

Recovery of soils from acidic deposition may exacerbate nitrogen export from forested watersheds

Effects of ambient decreases in N deposition on forest N cycling remain unclear as soils recover from acidic deposition. To investigate, repeated soil sampling data were related to deposition, vegetation, and stream data, for 2000–2015 in North and South Buck Creek watersheds, in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. In 63 other Adirondack streams, NO 3 − concentrations were also compared between 2004–2005 and 2014–2015, and a link between soil calcium and stream NO 3 − was investigated using data from 387 Adirondack streams that were sampled in either 2003–2005 or 2010–2011. No trends in N export or NO 3 − concentrations were observed in either Buck watershed despite a 45% decrease in N deposition, although South Buck N export was 2 to 3 times higher than in North Buck, where 48% of deposited N was accounted for by accumulation in the upper soil. In marked contrast, the upper profile in South Buck showed a net loss of N. Increased decomposition appeared likely in South Buck as those soils are adjusted to lower levels of acidifying S deposition, whereas decomposition increases in North Buck were likely suppressed by high levels of natural organic acidity. Stream NO 3 − concentrations in Buck watersheds bracketed regional results and were consistent with the regional streams that showed no overall change in NO 3 − concentrations between 2004 and 2014. A negative correlation observed between NO 3 − concentration and watershed buffering capacity expressed as the ratio of Ca 2+ to SO 4 2− also suggested that stream NO 3 − concentrations were elevated where soil Ca depletion had occurred.

JGR: Biogeosciences↗

Climate teleconnections synchronize Picea glauca masting and fire disturbance: Evidence for a fire‐related form of environmental prediction

Synchronous pulses of seed masting and natural disturbance have positive feedbacks on the reproduction of masting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems. We test the hypotheses that disturbances and proximate causes of masting are correlated, and that their large‐scale synchrony is driven by similar climate teleconnection patterns at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. Hypotheses were tested on white spruce ( Picea glauca ), a masting species which surprisingly persists in fire‐prone boreal forests while lacking clear fire adaptations. We built masting, drought and fire indices at regional (Alaska, Yukon, Alberta, Quebec) and sub‐continental scales (western North America) spanning the second half of the 20th century. Superposed Epoch Analysis tested the temporal associations between masting events, drought and burnt area at the regional scale. At the sub‐continental scale, Superposed Epoch Analysis tested whether El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupled effects with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the positive phase (AMO+/ENSO+) synchronize drought, burnt area and masting. We additionally tested the consistency of our synchronization hypotheses on a decadal temporal scale to verify whether long‐term oscillations in AMO+/ENSO+ are coherent to decadal variation in drought, burnt area and masting. Analyses demonstrated synchronicity between drought, fire and masting. In all regions the year before a mast event was drier and more fire‐prone than usual. During AMO+/ENSO+ events sub‐continental indices of drought and burnt area experienced significant departures from mean values. The same was observed for large‐scale masting in the subsequent year, confirming 1‐year lag between fire and masting. Sub‐continental indices of burnt area and masting showed in‐phase decadal fluctuations led by the AMO+/ENSO+. Results support the ‘Environmental prediction hypothesis’ for mast seeding. Synthesis . We provide evidence of large‐scale synchronicity between seed masting in Picea glauca and fire regimes in boreal forests of western North America at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. We conclude that seed production in white spruce predicts changes in disturbance regimes by sharing the same large‐scale climate drivers with drought and fire. This gives new insides in a mechanism providing a fire‐sensitive species with higher than expected adaptability to changes in climate.

Alaska, Alberta, Quebec, Yukon↗

Landscape context moderates edge effects: Nesting success of wood thrushes in Central New York

Despite two decades of research into the effects of habitat fragmentation and edges on nesting birds, critical information about how edges affect the success of natural nests of Neotropical migratory songbirds breeding in heterogeneous landscapes is still missing. We studied abundance and nesting success in Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) breeding across a heterogeneous landscape in central New York from 1998 to 2000 to test the hypothesis that edge effects on nesting passerines are stronger in fragmented than contiguous landscapes. We monitored nests to estimate nesting success in edge and interior habitats in both fragmented and contiguously forested landscapes. In contiguous landscapes, daily survival rate did not differ between edge nests (0.963) and interior nests (0.968) (??2 = 0.19, p = 0.66). In contrast, in fragmented landscapes, daily survival estimates were higher in interior (0.971) than edge (0.953) nests (??2 = 3.1, p = 0.08). Our study supports the hypothesis that landscape composition moderates edge effects on actual nests of birds but does not determine the mechanisms causing these patterns.

Conservation Biology↗

Home-range formation and dispersal of deer in northeastern Minnesota

Eleven white-tailed ( Odocoileus virginianus ) does and their offspring (10 male and 6 female fawns) were radio-tracked for up to 56 months (2,725 total deer locations) in Minnesota's Superior National Forest from November 1974 through August 1983. All fawns wintered in yards with their does and migrated in spring to their does' summer ranges where they then separated from the does. By 17 months of age, seven males had established new summer ranges up to 9.6 km away, whereas the other three used the same summer ranges as their does, up to at least 29 months of age. One male established a new winter range, but six others continued to use the winter ranges of their does. The female fawns used the same summer range as their does, or areas immediately adjacent, and migrated to and from the same winter ranges, some with their does, for up to 3 years of age. The one female that we followed beyond this age migrated separately to and from the same winter yard during her fifth year. The data fit a hypothesis that non-incestuous inbreeding is common in vertebrates.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Broad-scale geographic and temporal assessment of northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) maternity colony-landscape association

As the federally threatened northern long-eared bat Myotis septentrionalis continues to decline due to white-nose syndrome (WNS) impacts, the application of effective conservation measures is needed but often hindered by the lack of ecological data. To date, recommended management practices have been adopted in part from other federally listed sympatric species such as the endangered Indiana bat M. sodalis . During the maternity season, these measures have largely focused on conservation of known day-roost habitat, often with little consideration for foraging habitat, particularly riparian areas. We examined acoustic activity of northern long-eared bats relative to day-roost and capture data at coastal and interior sites in the District of Columbia, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia, USA, over the course of 6 summers (2015-2020), where maternity activity was still documented after the initial arrival and spread of WNS. Acoustic activity of northern long-eared bats relative to forest cover decreased at the acoustic site level (fine scale) but increased at the sampling region level (coarse scale). We observed a positive association of northern long-eared bat acoustic activity with riparian areas. Additionally, we observed higher levels of activity during pregnancy through early lactation period of the reproductive cycle prior to juvenile volancy. Our findings suggest the need for more explicit inclusion of forested riparian habitats in northern long-eared bat conservation planning. Acoustic sampling in spring and early summer rather than mid- to late summer and in forested riparian areas is the most effective strategy for identifying potential active northern long-eared bat maternity colonies on the local landscape.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and We↗

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

A mong shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

Landsat: The cornerstone of global land imaging

Since 1972, the joint NASA/ U.S. Geological Survey Landsat series of Earth Observation satellites have provided an uninterrupted space-based data record of the Earth’s land surface to help advance scientific research towards the understanding of our planet and the environmental impact of its inhabitants. Early Landsat satellites offered a wealth of new data that improved mapping of remote areas and geologic features along with digital analysis of vegetation. The utility of Landsat’s spatial and spectral resolution has advanced its use for applications that benefit society such as global crop forecasting, forest monitoring, water use, carbon assessments, and the base for Google Maps. Landsat’s long-term data record provides an unrivaled resource for observing land cover and land-use change over a timescale of decades. The free and open Landsat data policy in 2008 was a paradigm shift for the world. Today, due to improved analytical and computing capabilities, the Landsat archive is poised to shift into a more real-time monitoring and understanding of the Earth.

GIM International↗

Estimating effects of limiting factors with regression quantiles

In a recent Concepts paper in Ecology, Thomson et al. emphasized that assumptions of conventional correlation and regression analyses fundamentally conflict with the ecological concept of limiting factors, and they called for new statistical procedures to address this problem. The analytical issue is that unmeasured factors may be the active limiting constraint and may induce a pattern of unequal variation in the biological response variable through an interaction with the measured factors. Consequently, changes near the maxima, rather than at the center of response distributions, are better estimates of the effects expected when the observed factor is the active limiting constraint. Regression quantiles provide estimates for linear models fit to any part of a response distribution, including near the upper bounds, and require minimal assumptions about the form of the error distribution. Regression quantiles extend the concept of one-sample quantiles to the linear model by solving an optimization problem of minimizing an asymmetric function of absolute errors. Rank-score tests for regression quantiles provide tests of hypotheses and confidence intervals for parameters in linear models with heteroscedastic errors, conditions likely to occur in models of limiting ecological relations. We used selected regression quantiles (e.g., 5th, 10th, ..., 95th) and confidence intervals to test hypotheses that parameters equal zero for estimated changes in average annual acorn biomass due to forest canopy cover of oak (Quercus spp.) and oak species diversity. Regression quantiles also were used to estimate changes in glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum) seedling numbers as a function of lily flower numbers, rockiness, and pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides fossor) activity, data that motivated the query by Thomson et al. for new statistical procedures. Both example applications showed that effects of limiting factors estimated by changes in some upper regression quantile (e.g., 90-95th) were greater than if effects were estimated by changes in the means from standard linear model procedures. Estimating a range of regression quantiles (e.g., 5-95th) provides a comprehensive description of biological response patterns for exploratory and inferential analyses in observational studies of limiting factors, especially when sampling large spatial and temporal scales.

Ecology↗

Evaluating slash piles as habitat for a threatened salamander

Background Amplified wildfire activity in forests of the western United States threatens biodiversity. Fuel treatments can reduce fire severity, modify fire behavior, and restore forest structure and composition, yet impacts of some treatments, including slash piling and burning, on wildlife have received little attention. Piling of residual woody material may create habitable microenvironments for species that require cool, moist microclimates for all biological and ecological functions. One such species, the Sacramento Mountain salamander ( Aneides hardii Taylor), a relictual, endemic salamander narrowly distributed in the mountains of south-central New Mexico, USA, has been found below constructed slash piles within its range, but the characteristics of occupied slash piles and the extent of their occupancy has not yet been quantified. We surveyed for Sacramento Mountain salamanders in slash piles and under logs (cover objects) adjacent to piles and within a surrounding survey plot, and related salamander occupancy to slash pile and cover object characteristics, soil moisture and temperature, and environmental setting. Results We found Sacramento Mountain salamanders in 50% of surveyed slash piles. About 90% of salamanders were found in piles that contained black plastic sheeting, which held accumulations of moist leaf litter and other forest debris. We found no differences in pile characteristics, soil variables, or environmental setting between piles occupied by salamanders and piles in which no salamanders were detected. Salamander density was highest in slash piles, ~ 10% lower under cover objects in the survey area, and ~ 23% lower under cover objects adjacent to slash piles. Conclusions Slash piles serve as habitat for Sacramento Mountain salamanders. Our results suggest that within our study area or similar environments within the species range, any comparable slash pile has the potential to be occupied by salamanders. Species and habitat conservation measures indicated by this study and the timing of historical detections into mid-October include constructing smaller, pyramidal piles that minimize log-on-log or log-ground contact, avoiding the inclusion of black plastic in piles, limiting residence time of piles on the landscape, and initiating pile burning in late October or early November, when most salamanders are likely to have retreated below the ground surface.

New Mexico↗

Pennsylvania and Landsat

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania straddles an array of landscapes. From east to west, its 46,055 square miles connect the sea-level lowlands of the Atlantic seaboard with the rolling hills of the Midwest. It also acts as a bridge between regions from north to south, with the Appalachian Mountains swooping through its center from its northern border with New York to its southern borders with Maryland and West Virginia. The Declaration of Independence and U.S. Constitution were signed in the Commonwealth’s largest city, Philadelphia, and it was the second of the original 13 colonies to ratify the Constitution. The pivotal Civil War battle of Gettysburg took place in the southern part of Pennsylvania. Western Pennsylvania was an early hub for the coal, oil, and steel industries that fueled the Nation’s growth in the 20th century and still factor into Pennsylvania’s economy. The varied natural features of Pennsylvania have been an important proving ground for the value of satellite imagery from the USGS Landsat Program. Scientists began to lean on Landsat observations early in the program’s history to map the effect of invasive moths on Commonwealth forests. That activity continues to this day. Space-based imagery has also contributed to the study and management of land change from energy development, urban growth, and shifting land use patterns. The Landsat Program’s unparalleled 50-year archive of repeat Earth observations remains a critical public resource for Pennsylvania as environmental changes and land use patterns present new challenges to land managers and urban planners in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania↗

Impacts of forest fragmentation on species richness: A hierarchical approach to community modelling

1. Species richness is often used as a tool for prioritizing conservation action. One method for predicting richness and other summaries of community structure is to develop species-specific models of occurrence probability based on habitat or landscape characteristics. However, this approach can be challenging for rare or elusive species for which survey data are often sparse. 2. Recent developments have allowed for improved inference about community structure based on species-specific models of occurrence probability, integrated within a hierarchical modelling framework. This framework offers advantages to inference about species richness over typical approaches by accounting for both species-level effects and the aggregated effects of landscape composition on a community as a whole, thus leading to increased precision in estimates of species richness by improving occupancy estimates for all species, including those that were observed infrequently. 3. We developed a hierarchical model to assess the community response of breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York, to habitat fragmentation and analysed the model using a Bayesian approach. 4. The model was designed to estimate species-specific occurrence and the effects of fragment area and edge (as measured through the perimeter and the perimeter/area ratio, P/A), while accounting for imperfect detection of species. 5. We used the fitted model to make predictions of species richness within forest fragments of variable morphology. The model revealed that species richness of the observed bird community was maximized in small forest fragments with a high P/A. However, the number of forest interior species, a subset of the community with high conservation value, was maximized in large fragments with low P/A. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the responses of both individual, and groups of species, to environmental heterogeneity while illustrating the utility of hierarchical models for inference about species richness for conservation. This framework can be used to investigate the impacts of land-use change and fragmentation on species or assemblage richness, and to further understand trade-offs in species-specific occupancy probabilities associated with landscape variability.

New York↗

National water-quality assessment of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York — Environmental and hydrologic setting

The Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin covers approximately 22,300 mi 2 (square miles) in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Situated in two major physiographic provinces, the Appalachian Plateaus and the Central Lowland, the basin includes varied topographic and geomorphic features that affect the hydrology. As of 1990, the basin was inhabited by approximately 10.4 million people. Lake effect has a large influence on the temperature and precipitation of the basin, especially along the leeward southeast shore of Lake Erie. Mean annual precipitation generally increases from west to east, ranging from 31.8 inches at Detroit, Mich., to 43.8 inches at Erie, Pa. The rocks that underlie the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin range in age from Cambrian through Pennsylvanian, but only Silurian through Pennsylvanian rocks are part of the shallow ground-water flow system. The position of the basin on the edge of the Michigan and Appalachian Basins is responsible for the large range in geologic time of the exposed rocks. Rock types range from shales, siltstones, and mudstones to coarse-grained sandstones and conglomerates. Carbonate rocks consisting of limestones, dolomites, and calcareous shales also underlie the basin. All the basin is overlain by Pleistocene deposits- till, fine-grained stratified sediments, and coarse-grained stratified sediments-most of Wisconsinan age. A system of buried river valleys filled with various lacustrine, alluvial, and coarse glacial deposits is present in the basin. The soils of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin consist of two dominant soil orders: Alfisols and Inceptisols. Four other soil orders in the basin (Mollisols, Histisols, Entisols, and Spodosols) are of minor significance, making up less than 8 percent of the total area. The estimated water use for the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin for 1990 was 10,649 Mgal/d (million gallons per day). Power generation accounted for about 77 percent of total water withdrawals for the basin, whereas agriculture accounted for the least water-use withdrawals, at an estimated 38 Mgal/d. About 98 percent of the total water used in the basin was drawn from surface water; the remaining 2 percent was from ground water. Agricultural and urban land are the predominant land covers in the basin. Agriculture makes up approximately 74.7 percent of the total basin area; urban land use accounts for 11.2 percent; forested areas constitute 10.5 percent; and water, wetlands, rangeland, and barren land constitute less than 4.0 percent. The eight principal streams in the basin are the Clinton, Huron, and Raisin Rivers in Michigan, the Maumee, Sandusky, Cuyahoga, and Grand Rivers in Ohio, and Cattaraugus Creek in New York. The Maumee River, the largest stream in the basin, drains 6,609 mi 2 and discharges just under 24 percent of the streamflow from the basin into Lake Erie. Combined, the eight principal streams discharge approximately 54 percent of the surface water from the basin to the Lake Erie system per year. Average runoff increases from west to east in the basin. The glacial and recent deposits comprise the unconsolidated aquifers and confining units within the basin. Yields of wells completed in tills range from 0 to 20 gal/min (gallon per minute), but yields generally are near the lower part of this range. Fine-grained stratified deposits can be expected to yield from 0 to 3 gal/ min, and coarse-grained stratified deposits can yield 0.3 to 2,050 gal/min. Pennsylvanian sandstones can yield more than 25 gal/min, but they generally yield 10 to 25 gal/min. Mississippian sandstones in the basin generally yield 2 to 100 gal/min. The Mississippian and Devonian shales are considered to be confining units; in places, they produce small quantities of water from fractures at or near the bedrock surface. Wells completed in the Devonian and Silurian carbonates yield 25 to 500 gal/min, but higher yields have been reported in several zones.

Indiana, Michigan, New York , Ohio, Pennsylvania↗