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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2017

A comparison of three federal datasets for thermoelectric water withdrawals in the United States for 2010

Historically, thermoelectric water withdrawal has been estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) water-use compilations. Recently, the USGS developed models for estimating withdrawal at thermoelectric plants to provide estimates independent from plant operator-reported withdrawal data. This article compares three federal datasets of thermoelectric withdrawals for the United States in 2010: one based on the USGS water-use compilation, another based on EIA data, and the third based on USGS model-estimated data. The withdrawal data varied widely. Many plants had three different withdrawal values, and for approximately 54% of the plants the largest withdrawal value was twice the smallest, or larger. The causes of discrepancies among withdrawal estimates included definitional differences, definitional noise, and various nondefinitional causes. The uncertainty in national totals can be characterized by the range among the three datasets, from 5,640 m 3 /s (129 billion gallons per day [bgd]) to 6,954 m 3 /s (158 bgd), or by the aggregate difference between the smallest and largest values at each plant, from 4,014 m 3 /s (92 bgd) to 8,590 m 3 /s (196 bgd). When used to assess the accuracy of reported values, the USGS model estimates identify plants that need to be reviewed.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Velocity and Density Models Incorporating the Cascadia Subduction Zone for 3D Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations

In support of earthquake hazards and ground motion studies in the Pacific Northwest, three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity (3D Vp and Vs) and density (3D rho) models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone have been developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2°N to 50°N latitude, and from about -122°W to -129°W longitude. The model volume includes elevations from 0 km to 60 km (elevation is opposite of depth in model coordinates). Stephenson and Frankel (2003) presented preliminary ground motion simulations valid up to 0.1 Hz using an earlier version of these models. The version of the model volume described here includes more structural and geophysical detail, particularly in the Puget Lowland as required for scenario earthquake simulations in the development of the Seattle Urban Hazards Maps (Frankel and others, 2007). Olsen and others (in press) used the model volume discussed here to perform a Cascadia simulation up to 0.5 Hz using a Sumatra-Andaman Islands rupture history. As research from the EarthScope Program (http://www.earthscope.org ) is published, a wealth of important detail can be added to these model volumes, particularly to depths of the upper-mantle. However, at the time of development for this model version, no EarthScope-specific results were incorporated. This report is intended to be a reference for colleagues and associates who have used or are planning to use this preliminary model in their research. To this end, it is intended that these models will be considered a beginning template for a community velocity model of the Cascadia region as more data and results become available.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

GSFLOW - Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model Based on the Integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005)

The need to assess the effects of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow requires the development of models that couple two or more components of the hydrologic cycle. An integrated hydrologic model called GSFLOW (Ground-water and Surface-water FLOW) was developed to simulate coupled ground-water and surface-water resources. The new model is based on the integration of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). Additional model components were developed, and existing components were modified, to facilitate integration of the models. Methods were developed to route flow among the PRMS Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) and between the HRUs and the MODFLOW finite-difference cells. This report describes the organization, concepts, design, and mathematical formulation of all GSFLOW model components. An important aspect of the integrated model design is its ability to conserve water mass and to provide comprehensive water budgets for a location of interest. This report includes descriptions of how water budgets are calculated for the integrated model and for individual model components. GSFLOW provides a robust modeling system for simulating flow through the hydrologic cycle, while allowing for future enhancements to incorporate other simulation techniques.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2018

Estimating vegetation biomass and cover across large plots in shrub and grass dominated drylands using terrestrial lidar and machine learning

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been shown to enable an efficient, precise, and non-destructive inventory of vegetation structure at ranges up to hundreds of meters. We developed a method that leverages TLS collections with machine learning techniques to model and map canopy cover and biomass of several classes of short-stature vegetation across large plots. We collected high-definition TLS scans of 26 1-ha plots in desert grasslands and big sagebrush shrublands in southwest Idaho, USA. We used the Random Forests machine learning algorithm to develop decision tree models predicting the biomass and canopy cover of several vegetation classes from statistical descriptors of the aboveground heights of TLS points. Manual measurements of vegetation characteristics collected within each plot served as training and validation data. Models based on five or fewer TLS descriptors of vegetation heights were developed to predict the canopy cover fraction of shrubs (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7%), annual grasses (R 2 = 0.70, RMSE = 21%), perennial grasses (R 2 = 0.36, RMSE = 12%), forbs (R 2 = 0.52, RMSE = 6%), bare earth or litter (R 2 = 0.49, RMSE = 19%), and the biomass of shrubs (R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 175 g) and herbaceous vegetation (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 99 g) (all values reported are out-of-bag). Our models explained much of the variability between predictions and manual measurements, and yet we expect that future applications could produce even better results by reducing some of the methodological sources of error that we encountered. Our work demonstrates how TLS can be used efficiently to extend manual measurement of vegetation characteristics from small to large plots in grasslands and shrublands, with potential application to other similarly structured ecosystems. Our method shows that vegetation structural characteristics can be modeled without classifying and delineating individual plants, a challenging and time-consuming step common in previous methods applying TLS to vegetation inventory. Improving application of TLS to studies of shrub-steppe ecosystems will serve immediate management needs by enhancing vegetation inventories, environmental modeling studies, and the ability to train broader datasets collected from air and space.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen ( 16 O, 18 O, 1 H, 2 H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Comparisons of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea-ice projections in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecoregions during the 21st century

Climate model projections are commonly used to assess potential impacts of global warming on a breadth of social, economic, and environmental topics. Modeling centers throughout the world coordinate to apply a consistent suite of radiative forcing experiments so that all model outputs can be collectively analyzed and compared. Three generations of model outputs have been produced and made available to the scientific community through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP3 disseminated during the mid-2000s, CMIP5 during the early-2010s, and CMIP6 during the late-2010s. Twenty-first century sea-ice projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models have been used in Bayesian network assessments of how climate change could impact the future persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout their range. In this report, we compare sea-ice projections by CMIP6 models to those of CMIP5 models in each of four polar bear ecoregions over the 21st century. We evaluate differences between the two CMIP generations with respect to other sources of variability that affect uncertainties of the model projections: (1) variability from different models; (2) variability from different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios; and (3) natural (internal) variability in the earth’s climate system. We found that natural variability as well as that attributable to models dominated uncertainties in sea-ice projections in all months and ecoregions during the first half of the 21st century, while emissions scenarios dominated uncertainties during the late 21st century. By comparison, we found only slight differences between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 model projections of sea ice. Applying CMIP6 instead of CMIP5 sea-ice projections to the polar bear Bayesian network model developed in 2016, therefore, would not qualitatively change the population status outcomes published therein.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗
USGS1982

Progress report to the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, year ending September 30, 1981

The objectives of the cooperative program with the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department are described. Accomplishments within the program are summarized and reports are listed. The accomplishments include operation of a crest-stage station network, modeling of rainfall-runoff station data, publication of drainage-area reports for all major river basins in Arkansas, floodflow-characteristics reports at proposed bridge sites, furnishing peak-flow and stage information at many sites, and furnishing technical advice and field training to Highway and Transportation Department personnel. Program plans for the 1982 fiscal year are listed and discussed. Other water-resources programs and publications that may be of interest are discussed and all available flood-prone-area maps for Arkansas are listed.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Development and Application of Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Estimating Atrazine Concentration Distributions in Streams

Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most model development and model validation stations. Results for the two sets of seasonal models were similar. Concentration distributions derived from the seasonal-model predictions provided additional information compared to distributions derived from the annual models.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1974

Floodflows from small drainage areas in Oklahoma : progress report and data compilation

Annual peak discharges and basin and climatic characteristics, computed during the 10 years of the project, are summarized for 103 small-stream sites in Oklahoma. The U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for six small watersheds in Oklahoma. Calibration results, discussed in this report, indicate that the rainfall-runoff model can be used to extend the length of flood records for small watersheds in Oklahoma. Records from four small watersheds were extended by the model and synthetic frequency curves were computed for these sites to show applicability of the model. Further analyses and data are needed before the model can be applied statewide to compute improved estimating equations.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) version 1.0—An agricultural water-use model developed for the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 1999–2017

Water use is a critical and often uncertain component of quantifying any water budget and securing reliable and sustainable water supplies. Recent water-level declines in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP), especially in the central part of the Mississippi Delta, pose a threat to water sustainability. Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) 1.0, one of the first national agricultural water-use models that provides water use at the scale of most groundwater models, was developed and compared to other reported and estimated aquaculture and irrigation water-use values within the MAP study area for 1999 through 2017 to improve water-use estimates needed as input to a hydrologic decision-support system in the MAP. Results indicate annual total water-use estimates from 1999 through 2017 ranged from about 5 to 13 billion gallons per day and, on average, a majority of the water use was applied to rice (about 51 percent), followed by soybeans (about 26 percent), and less than (<) 10 percent each was applied to aquaculture, corn, cotton, and other crops. Comparisons indicated that annual total water-use estimates from AIWUM 1.0 were smaller than or comparable to all other sources of water-use data. Although there is disagreement at the monthly timescale in estimates in the Mississippi Delta within each part of the growing season, the annual total water use is comparable between AIWUM 1.0 and the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater model 2.1. Estimates from AIWUM 1.0 could be used in models at all scales (for example, local, regional, national) and could provide a nationally consistent methodology in estimating water use driven by regional crop-specific withdrawal rates.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗
USGS2002

A model project for exploring the role of sustainability science in a citizen-centered, collaborative decision-making process

The role of science in society is evolving as we enter the 21st century. The report, Science — The Endless Frontier (Bush 1990[1945]), outlined a model of national scientific research that served the country for 50 years. The contract between science and society established in that report stipulated that science is essential and that basic research meets national needs (Pielke and Byerly 1998). This stipulation and the abundant — seemingly unlimited and unquestioned — funding for research during the Cold War caused many scientists to come to believe that funding for science was an entitlement independent of societal needs. Implicit in this belief is that science alone can solve society’s problems. We now are learning that many policy issues that involve science involve diverse economic, political, social, and aesthetic values as well, and rarely, if ever, is scientific information alone the basis of public policy (e.g., see Sarewitz 1996a, 1996b; Frodeman 1997). Moreover, resources are increasingly more limited and many in society are questioning the value of public-supported science.

Human Ecology Review↗
USGS1997

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow through glacial deposits and crystalline bedrock in the Mirror Lake area, Grafton County, New Hampshire

This report documents the development of a computer model to simulate steady-state (long-term average) flow of ground water in the vicinity of Mirror Lake, which lies at the eastern end of the Hubbard Brook valley in central New Hampshire. The 10-km2 study area includes Mirror Lake, the three streams that flow into Mirror Lake, Leeman's Brook, Paradise Brook, and parts of Hubbard Brook and the Pemigewasset River. The topography of the area is characterized by steep hillsides and relatively flat valleys. Major hydrogeologic units include glacial deposits, composed of till containing pockets of sand and gravel, and fractured crystalline bedrock, composed of schist intruded by granite, pegmatite, and lamprophyre. Ground water occurs in both the glacial deposits and bedrock. Precipitation and snowmelt infiltrate to the water table on the hillsides, flow downslope through the saturated glacial deposits and fractured bedrock, and discharge to streams and to Mirror Lake. The model domain includes the glacial deposits, the uppermost 150m of bedrock, Mirror Lake, the layer of organic sediments on the lake bottom, and streams and rivers within the study area. A streamflow routing package was included in the model to simulate baseflow in streams and interaction between streams and ground water. Recharge from precipitation is assumed to be areally uniform, and riparian evapotranspiration along stream banks is assumed negligible. The spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity is represented by dividing the model domain into several zones, each having uniform hydraulic properties. Local variations in recharge and hydraulic conductivities are ignored; therefore, the simulation results characterize the general ground-water system, not local details of ground-water movement. The model was calibrated using a nonlinear regression method to match hydraulic heads measured in piezometers and wells, and baseflow in three inlet streams to Mirror Lake. Model calibration indicates that recharge from precipitation to the water table is 26 to 28 cm/year. Hydraulic conductivities are 1.7 x 10-6 to 2.7 x 10-6 m/s for glacial deposits, about 3 x 10-7 m/s for bedrock beneath lower hillsides and valleys, and about 6x10-8 m/s for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops. Analysis of parameter uncertainty indicates that the above values are well constrained, at least within the context of regression analysis. In the regression, several attributes of the ground-water flow model are assumed perfectly known. The hydraulic conductivity for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops was determined from few data, and additional data are needed to further confirm this result. Model fit was not improved by introducing a 10-to-1 ration of horizontal-to-vertical anisotropy in the hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits, or by varying hydraulic conductivity with depth in the modeled part (uppermost 150m) of the bedrock. The calibrated model was used to delineate the Mirror Lake ground-water basin, defined as the volumes of subsurface through which ground water flows from the water table to Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. Results indicate that Mirror Lake and its inlet streams drain an area of ground-water recharge that is about 1.5 times the area of the surface-water basin. The ground-water basin extends far up the hillside on the northwestern part of the study area. Ground water from this area flows at depth under Norris Brook to discharge into Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. As a result, the Mirror Lake ground-water basin extends beneath the adjacent ground-water basin that drains into Norris Brook. Model simulation indicates that approximately 300,000 m3/year of precipitation recharges the Mirror Lake ground-water basin. About half the recharge enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in glacial deposits; the other half enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in be

New Hampshire↗
USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, The U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model: User guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process

MODFLOW is a computer program that numerically solves the three-dimensional ground-water flow equation for a porous medium by using a finite-difference method. Although MODFLOW was designed to be easily enhanced, the design was oriented toward additions to the ground-water flow equation. Frequently there is a need to solve additional equations; for example, transport equations and equations for estimating parameter values that produce the closest match between model-calculated heads and flows and measured values. This report documents a new version of MODFLOW, called MODFLOW-2000, which is designed to accommodate the solution of equations in addition to the ground-water flow equation. This report is a user's manual. It contains an overview of the old and added design concepts, documents one new package, and contains input instructions for using the model to solve the ground-water flow equation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Mapping habitat for multiple species in the Desert Southwest

Many utility scale renewable energy projects are currently proposed across the Mojave Ecoregion. Agencies that manage biological resources throughout this region need to understand the potential impacts of these renewable energy projects and their associated infrastructure (for example, transmission corridors, substations, access roads, etc.) on species movement, genetic exchange among populations, and species’ abilities to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Understanding these factors will help managers’ select appropriate project sites and possibly mitigate for anticipated effects of management activities. We used species distribution models to map habitat for 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion to aid regional land-use management planning. Models were developed using a common 1 × 1 kilometer resolution with maximum entropy and generalized additive models. Occurrence data were compiled from multiple sources, including VertNet ( http://vertnet.org/ ), HerpNET ( http://www.herpnet.org ), and MaNIS ( http://manisnet.org ), as well as from internal U.S. Geological Survey databases and other biologists. Background data included 20 environmental covariates representing terrain, vegetation, and climate covariates. This report summarizes these environmental covariates and species distribution models used to predict habitat for the 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion.

Mojave Ecoregion↗
USGS1998

Geohydrology of Storage Unit III and a combined flow model of the Santa Barbara and foothill ground-water basins, Santa Barbara County, California

The city of Santa Barbara pumps most of its ground water from the Santa Barbara and Foothill ground-water basins. The Santa Barbara basin is subdivided into two storage units: Storage Unit I and Storage Unit III. The Foothill basin and Storage Unit I of the Santa Barbara basin have been studied extensively and ground-water flow models have been developed for them. In this report, the geohydrology of the Santa Barbara ground- water basin is described with a special emphasis on Storage Unit III in the southwestern part of the basin. The purposes of this study were to summarize and evaluate the geohydrology of Storage Unit III and to develop an areawide model of the Santa Barbara and Foothill basins that includes the previously unmodeled Storage Unit III. Storage Unit III is in the southwestern part of the city of Santa Barbara. It is approximately 3.5 miles long and varies in width from about 2,000 feet in the southeast to 4,000 feet in the north-west. Storage Unit III is composed of the Santa Barbara Formation and overlying alluvium. The Santa Barbara Formation (the principal aquifer) consists of Pleistocene and Pliocene(?) unconsolidated marine sand, silt, and clay, and it has a maximum saturated thickness of about 160 feet. The alluvium that overlies the Santa Barbara Formation has a maximum saturated thickness of about 140 feet. The storage unit is bounded areally by faults and low-permeability deposits and is underlain by rocks of Tertiary age. The main sources of recharge to Storage Unit III are seepage from Arroyo Burro and infiltration of precipitation. Most of the recharge occurs in the northwest part of the storage unit, and ground water flows toward the southeast along the unit's long axis. Lesser amounts of recharge may occur as subsurface flow from the Hope Ranch subbasin and as upwelling from the underlying Tertiary rocks. Discharge from Storage Unit III occurs as pumpage, flow to underground drains, underflow through alluvium in the vicinity of Arroyo Burro across the Lavigia Fault, evapotranspiration, and underflow to the Pacific Ocean. The faults that bound Storage Unit III generally are considered to be effective barriers to the flow of ground water. Interbasin ground-water flow occurs where deposits of younger alluvium along stream channels cross faults. Ground-water quality in Storage Unit III deposits varies with location and depth. Upward leakage of poor-quality water from the underlying Tertiary rocks occurs in the storage unit, and such leakage can be influenced by poor well construction or by heavy localized pumping. The highest dissolved-solids concentration (4,710 milligrams per liter) in ground water resulting from this upward leakage is found in the coastal part of the storage unit. The ground-water system was modeled as two horizontal layers. In the Foothill basin and Storage Unit I the layers are separated by a confining bed. The upper layer represents the upper producing zone and the shallow zone near the coast. The lower layer represents the lower producing zone. In general, the faults in the study area were assumed to be no-flow boundaries, except for the offshore fault that forms the southeast boundary; the southeast boundary was simulated as a general-head boundary. The Storage Unit III model was combined with the preexisting Storage Unit I and Foothill basin models, using horizontal flow barriers, to form an areawide model. The areawide model was calibrated by simulating steady-state predevelopment conditions and transient conditions for 1978-92. The nonpumping steady- state simulation was used to verify that the calibrated model yielded physically reasonable results for predevelopment conditions. The calibrated areawide model calculates water levels in Storage Unit III that are within 10 feet of measured water levels at all sites of comparison. In addition, the model adequately simulates water levels in the Storage Unit I and Foothill basin areas. A total of 33,430 acre-feet of water was pumped from the study area during the simulation period. Model results indicate that 2,833 acre-feet came from storage and 5, 332 acre-feet crossed the general-head boundary from the ocean, thus indicating that seawater intrusion could occur. A sensitivity analysis indicates that, in general, the model is most sensitive to changes in transmissivity and total recharge.

California↗