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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

A landscape perspective of the stream corridor invasion and habitat characteristics of an exotic (Dioscorea oppositifolia) in a pristine watershed in Illinois

The spatial distribution of exotics across riparian landscapes is not uniform, and research elaborating the environmental constraints and dispersal behavior that underlie these patterns of distribution is warranted. This study examined the spatial distribution, growth patterns, and habitat constraints of populations of the invasive Dioscorea oppositifolia in a forested stream corridor of a tributary of Drury Creek in Giant City State Park, IL. The distribution of D. oppositifolia was determined at the watershed scale mainly by floodplain structure and connectivity. Populations of D. oppositifolia were confined to the floodplain, with overbank flooding from the stream. Dioscorea oppositifolia probably originates in disturbed areas upstream of natural corridors, and subsequently, the species disperses downstream into pristine canyons or ravines via bulbils dispersing in the water. In Giant City State Park, populations of D. oppositifolia were distributed on the floodplain across broad gradients of soil texture, light, slope, and potential radiation. The study also examined the longevity of bulbils in various micro-environments to illuminate strategies for the management of the species in invaded watersheds. After 1 year, the highest percentages of bulbils were viable under leaves, and much lower percentages were viable over leaves, in soil, and in the creek (76.0±6.8, 21.2±9.6, 21.6±3.6, and 5.2±5.2%), respectively. This study suggests that management procedures that reduce leaf litter on the forest floor (e.g., prescribed burning) could reduce the number of bulbils of D. oppositifolia stored in the watershed.

Illinois↗

Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conducted an integrated ecological and ecohydrological study in tropical forests impacted by invasive plants and animals. We measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest site pairs along moisture and substrate age gradients across Hawaii to explore the effects of invasion on hydrological processes within tropical forests. We also characterized forest composition, structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Our models show that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, several soil characteristics known to be affected by invasive ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates, indicating that the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in tropical forests may be stronger than effects observed in this study. The effect of invasive plants on infiltration was complex and likely to depend on their physiognomy within existing forest community structure. These results provide clear evidence for managers that invasive ungulate control efforts can improve ecohydrological function of mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge.

Hawaii↗

Landscape characterization of floral resources for pollinators in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

Across agricultural areas of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), floral resources are primarily found on public grasslands, roadsides, and private grasslands used as pasture or enrolled in federal conservation programs. Little research has characterized the availability of flowers across the region or identified the primary stakeholders managing lands supporting pollinators. We explored spatial and temporal variability in flower abundance and richness across multiple grassland categories (i.e. general grassland, conservation grassland, and engineered pollinator habitat) in the PPR from 2015 to 2018 and used these data to estimate the number of flowering stems present across the region on private and public land holdings. Both flowering plant abundance and richness were greatest on engineered pollinator habitat, but this land category encompassed <0.01% of the total grassland area in the PPR. There was a steady decrease in flower abundance over the growing season across all land categories. We detected considerable variation in flower abundance and richness across grassland categories, indicating that not all natural or semi-natural covers provide similar value to pollinators. At a landscape scale, large land holdings such as privately-owned grasslands and Conservation Reserve Program lands contributed the greatest number of flowers by an order of magnitude, though these lands collectively did not support the greatest abundance of flowers per unit area. Our research depicts spatial and temporal variation in pollinator resources across the region. Further, our research will assist managers and policy makers in understanding the role of public and private lands and conservation programs in supporting pollinators.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transport and retention in tropical, rain forest streams draining a volcanic landscape in Costa Rica: In situ SRP amendment to streams and laboratory studies

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transport/retention was determined in two rain forest streams (Salto, Pantano) draining La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. There, SRP levels can be naturally high due to groundwater enriched by geothermal activity within the surfically dormant volcanic landscape, and subsequently discharged at ambient temperature. Combined field and laboratory approaches simulated high but natural geothermal SRP input with the objective of estimating the magnitude of amended SRP retention within high and low SRP settings and determining the underlying mechanisms of SRP retention. First, we examined short-term SRP retention/transport using combined SRP-conservative tracer additions at high natural in situ concentrations. Second, we attempted to observe a DIN response during SRP amendment as an indicator of biological uptake. Third, we determined SRP release/retention using laboratory sediment assays under control and biologically inhibited conditions. Short-term in situ tracer-SRP additions indicated retention in both naturally high and low SRP reaches. Retention of added SRP mass in Upper Salto (low SRP) was 17% (7.5 mg-P m-2 h-1), and 20% (10.9 mg-P m-2 h -1) in Lower Salto (high SRP). No DIN response in either nitrate or ammonium was observed. Laboratory assays using fresh Lower Salto sediments indicated SRP release (15.4 ?? 5.9 ??g-P g dry wt.-1 h -1), when incubated in filter sterilized Salto water at ambient P concentration, but retention when incubated in filter sterilized river water amended to 2.0 mg SRP l-1 (233.2 ?? 5.8 ??g-P g dry wt. -1 h-1). SRP uptake/release was similar in both control- and biocide-treated sediments indicating predominantly abiotic retention. High SRP retention even under biologically saturated conditions, absence of a DIN response to amendment, patterns of desorption following amendment, and similar patterns of retention and release under control and biologically inhibited conditions all indicated predominantly abiotic P flux. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Biogeochemistry↗

Control of nitrogen and phosphorus transport by reservoirs in agricultural landscapes

Reservoirs often receive excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) lost from agricultural land, and may subsequently influence N and P delivery to inland and coastal waters through internal processes such as nutrient burial, denitrification, and nutrient turnover. Currently there is a need to better understand how reservoirs affect nutrient transport in agricultural landscapes, where few prior studies have provided joint views on the variation in net retention/loss among reservoirs, the role of reservoirs apart from natural lakes, and differences in effects on N versus P, especially over time frames >1 year. To address these needs, we compiled water quality data from many rivers in intermediate-to-large drainages of the Midwestern US, including tributaries to the Upper Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Ohio River Basins, where cropland often covers >50 % of the contributing area. Incorporating 18 years of data (1990–2007), effects of reservoirs on river nutrient transport were examined using comparisons between reservoir out- flow sites and unimpeded river sites (N = 869, including 100 reservoir outflow sites) supported by mass balance analysis of individual reservoirs (n = 17). Reservoir outflows sites commonly had 20 % lower annual yields (mass per catchment area per year) of total N and total P (TP) than unimpeded rivers after accounting for cropland coverage. Reservoir outflow sites also had lower interannual variability in TP yields. The mass balance approach confirmed net N losses in reservoirs, suggesting denitrification of agricultural N, or N burial in sediments. Net retention of P ranged more widely, and multiple systems showed net P export, providing new evidence that legacy P within reservoir systems may mobilize over the long-term. Our results indicate that reservoirs broadly influence the downstream transport of N and P through agricultural river networks, including networks where natural lakes and wetlands are relatively scarce. This calls for a more complete understanding of agricultural reservoirs as open, connected features of river networks where biogeochemical processes are often influential to downstream water quality, but potentially sensitive to changes associated with sedimentation, eutrophication, infrastructure aging, and reservoir management.

Biogeochemistry↗

Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake ( Thamnophis gigas ): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can disrupt the ability of species to disperse across landscapes, which can alter the levels and distribution of genetic diversity within populations and negatively impact long-term viability. The giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) is a state and federally threatened species that historically occurred in the wetland habitats of California&rsquo;s Great Central Valley. Despite the loss of 93 % of historic wetlands throughout the Central Valley, giant gartersnakes continue to persist in relatively small, isolated patches of highly modified agricultural wetlands. Gathering information regarding genetic diversity and effective population size represents an essential component for conservation management programs aimed at this species. Previous mitochondrial sequence studies have revealed historical patterns of differentiation, yet little is known about contemporary population structure and diversity. On the basis of 15 microsatellite loci, we estimate population structure and compare indices of genetic diversity among populations spanning seven drainage basins within the Central Valley. We sought to understand how habitat loss may have affected genetic differentiation, genetic diversity and effective population size, and what these patterns suggest in terms of management and restoration actions. We recovered five genetic clusters that were consistent with regional drainage basins, although three northern basins within the Sacramento Valley formed a single genetic cluster. Our results show that northern drainage basin populations have higher connectivity than among central and southern basins populations, and that greater differentiation exists among the more geographically isolated populations in the central and southern portion of the species&rsquo; range. Genetic diversity measures among basins were significantly different, and were generally lower in southern basin populations. Levels of inbreeding and evidence of population bottlenecks were detected in about half the populations we sampled, and effective population size estimates were well below recommended minimum thresholds to avoid inbreeding. Efforts focused on maintaining and enhancing existing wetlands to facilitate dispersal between basins and increase local effective population sizes may be critical for these otherwise isolated populations.

Conservation Genetics↗

A landscape-based reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity in streams of the upper Potomac, upper James,and Shenandoah Rivers, USA

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are becoming of increasing concern in waterways of the USA and worldwide. What remains poorly understood, however, is how prevalent these emerging contaminants are in the environment and what methods are best able to determine landscape sources of EDCs. We describe the development of a spatially structured sampling design and a reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity along gradients of land use within sub-watersheds. We present this example as a useful approach for state and federal agencies with an interest in identifying locations potentially impacted by EDCs that warrant more intensive, focused research. Our study confirms the importance of agricultural activities on levels of a measured estrogenic equivalent (E2Eq) and also highlights the importance of other potential sources of E2Eq in areas where intensive agriculture is not the dominant land use. Through application of readily available geographic information system (GIS) data, coupled with spatial statistical analysis, we demonstrate the correlation of specific land use types to levels of estrogenic activity across a large area in a consistent and unbiased manner.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Landscape assessment of side channel plugs and associated cumulative side channel attrition across a large river floodplain

Determining the influences of anthropogenic perturbations on side channel dynamics in large rivers is important from both assessment and monitoring perspectives because side channels provide critical habitat to numerous aquatic species. Side channel extents are decreasing in large rivers worldwide. Although riprap and other linear structures have been shown to reduce side channel extents in large rivers, we hypothesized that small “anthropogenic plugs” (flow obstructions such as dikes or berms) across side channels modify whole-river geomorphology via accelerating side channel senescence. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a geospatial assessment, comparing digitized side channel areas from aerial photographs taken during the 1950s and 2001 along 512 km of the Yellowstone River floodplain. We identified longitudinal patterns of side channel recruitment (created/enlarged side channels) and side channel attrition (destroyed/senesced side channels) across n = 17 river sections within which channels were actively migrating. We related areal measures of recruitment and attrition to the density of anthropogenic side channel plugs across river sections. Consistent with our hypothesis, a positive spatial relationship existed between the density of anthropogenic plugs and side channel attrition, but no relationship existed between plug density and side channel recruitment. Our work highlights important linkages among side channel plugs and the persistence and restoration of side channels across floodplain landscapes. Specifically, management of small plugs represents a low-cost, high-benefit restoration opportunity to facilitate scouring flows in side channels to enable the persistence of these habitats over time.

Montana↗

A landscape-scale model of yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii) habitat preferences in northern alaska

We modeled yellow-billed loon ( Gavia adamsii ) habitat preferences in a 23,500 km 2 area of northern Alaska using intensive aerial surveys and landscape-scale habitat descriptors. Of the 757 lakes censused, yellow-billed loons occupied 15% and Pacific loons ( G. pacifica ) 42%. Lake area, depth, proportion of shoreline in aquatic vegetation, shoreline complexity, hydrological connectivity (stream present within 100 m or absent), and an area–connectivity interaction were positive, significant predictors of yellow-billed loon presence in a multivariate logistic regression model, but distance to nearest river or Beaufort Sea coast were not. Predicted yellow-billed loon presence was 13 and 4.7 times more likely on deep and medium lakes, respectively, than on shallow lakes that freeze to the bottom. On small lakes (<60 ha), predicted yellow-billed loon presence was 4.8–1.7 times more likely on lakes with hydrological connectivity than without, but connectivity was not important at most lake sizes (65–750 ha). Yellow-billed loon broods depend on fish available in the brood-rearing lake, and we suggest that a dependable supply of fish is more likely in larger lakes, those deep enough to have open water under winter ice, and those near streams. Highly convoluted shorelines and those with aquatic vegetation provide loon nesting and brood-rearing sites, as well as fish habitat. Pacific loon absence was a significant, positive predictor when added to the habitat model, indicating that yellow-billed loons were four times more likely on lakes without Pacific loons.

Hydrobiologia↗

Anuran site occupancy and species richness as tools for evaluating restoration of a hydrologically-modified landscape

A fundamental goal of wetland restoration is to reinstate pre-disturbance hydrological conditions to degraded landscapes, facilitating recolonization by native species and the production of resilient, functional ecosystems. To evaluate restoration success, baseline conditions need to be determined and a reference target needs to be established that will serve as an ecological blueprint in the restoration process. During the summer wet seasons of 2010 and 2011, we used automated recording units to monitor a community of calling anuran amphibians in the Picayune Strand State Forest of Southwest Florida, USA. This area is undergoing hydrological restoration as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. We compared occurrence of anurans at sites in the restoration area, to nearby locations in relatively undisturbed habitat (reference sites). We assessed the utility of the latter as restoration targets, using a hierarchical model of community species occupancy to estimate the probability of occurrence of anurans in restoration and reference locations. We detected 14 species, 13 of which were significantly more likely to occur in reference areas. All 14 species were estimated by our model to occur at these sites but, across both years, only 8&ndash;13 species were estimated to occur at restoration sites. The composition and structure of these habitats within and adjacent to the Picayune Strand State Forest indicate that they are suitable targets for habitat restoration, as measured by amphibian occurrence and species richness. These areas are important sources for recolonization of anuran amphibians as the hydrologically degraded Picayune Strand undergoes restoration to mitigate the effects of overdrainage and habitat loss.

Florida↗

Sediment accumulation in prairie wetlands under a changing climate: The relative roles of landscape and precipitation

Sediment accumulation threatens the viability and hydrologic functioning of many naturally formed depressional wetlands across the interior regions of North America. These wetlands provide many ecosystem services and vital habitats for diverse plant and animal communities. Climate change may further impact sediment accumulation rates in the context of current land use patterns. We estimated sediment accretion in wetlands within a region renowned for its large populations of breeding waterfowl and migrant shorebirds and examined the relative roles of precipitation and land use context in the sedimentation process. We modeled rates of sediment accumulation from 1971 through 2100 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a sediment delivery ratio and the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition model (USPED). These models predicted that by 2100, 21&ndash;33 % of wetlands filled completely with sediment and 27&ndash;46 % filled by half with sediments; estimates are consistent with measured sediment accumulation rates in the region reported by empirical studies. Sediment accumulation rates were strongly influenced by size of the catchment, greater coverage of tilled landscape within the catchment, and steeper slopes. Conservation efforts that incorporate the relative risk of infilling of wetlands with sediments, thus emphasizing areas of high topographic relief and large watersheds, may benefit wetland-dependent biota.

Prairie Pothole region↗

Does proximity to wetlands matter? A landscape-level analysis of the influence of local wetlands on the public’s concern for ecosystem services and conservation involvement

The success of landscape-level conservation depends on public support and an understanding of public opinion. However, perceptions of wetlands’ importance may differ based on proximity to a wetland. This study used a mail-out survey across the entire U.S. (n=1,030) to investigate the public’s knowledge of local wetlands, visitation to wetlands, concern over losing ecosystem services provided by wetlands, and involvement in wetlands conservation. Regression models were run to explore the impact of proximity to the nearest wetland on wetlands visitation, concern, and conservation involvement. Additionally, sociodemographics and outdoor recreation participation were tested as predictors. While proximity to wetlands did impact knowledge of wetlands in the local area and wetlands visitation, it was not directly a significant predictor of concern for wetlands ecosystem services or conservation involvement. However, wetlands visitation did increase concern for ecosystem services and conservation involvement. Furthermore, participation in birdwatching, wildlife viewing, and fishing were correlated with higher concern for ecosystems services provided by wetlands and involvement in wetlands/waterfowl conservation. Results suggest that fostering awareness of wetlands, encouraging visitation, and promoting outdoor recreation opportunities may increase support for wetlands regardless of individuals’ proximity to wetlands.

Wetlands↗

Perspective: Developing flow policies to balance the water needs of humans and wetlands requires a landscape scale approach inclusive of future scenarios and multiple timescales

Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water management is decreasing freshwater recharge to wetlands and contributes to the salinization of important coastal wetlands as sea levels rise. Further, downscaled climate models predict an increase in drought frequency, intensity, and duration by mid-century. Conflicts over water allocation seem imminent between human and ecological needs. Current minimum flow policies are insufficient given the complexities of ecosystem processes and the changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise that are expected in the future. Improved flow policies need to be established that reflect the functional relationships between specific representative ecological resources and components of the natural flow regime across all relevant time scales. Similarly, flow policies need to be developed within a landscape scale to implicitly address the socio-ecological trade-offs as well as the complexities of water management. Multi-disciplinary collaborations will be essential for increasing our resiliency to anticipated future changes.

Wetlands↗

Landscape-level terrestrial methane flux observed from a very tall tower

Simulating the magnitude and variability of terrestrial methane sources and sinks poses a challenge to ecosystem models because the biophysical and biogeochemical processes that lead to methane emissions from terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are, by their nature, episodic and spatially disjunct. As a consequence, model predictions of regional methane emissions based on field campaigns from short eddy covariance towers or static chambers have large uncertainties, because measurements focused on a particular known source of methane emission will be biased compared to regional estimates with regards to magnitude, spatial scale, or frequency of these emissions. Given the relatively large importance of predicting future terrestrial methane fluxes for constraining future atmospheric methane growth rates, a clear need exists to reduce spatiotemporal uncertainties. In 2010, an Ameriflux tower (US-PFa) near Park Falls, WI, USA, was instrumented with closed-path methane flux measurements at 122 m above ground in a mixed wetland&ndash;upland landscape representative of the Great Lakes region. Two years of flux observations revealed an average annual methane (CH 4 ) efflux of 785 &plusmn; 75 mg C CH 4 m &minus;2 yr &minus;1 , compared to a mean CO 2 sink of &minus;80 g C CO 2 m &minus;2 yr &minus;1 , a ratio of 1% in magnitude on a mole basis. Interannual variability in methane flux was 30% of the mean flux and driven by suppression of methane emissions during dry conditions in late summer 2012. Though relatively small, the magnitude of the methane source from the very tall tower measurements was mostly within the range previously measured using static chambers at nearby wetlands, but larger than a simple scaling of those fluxes to the tower footprint. Seasonal patterns in methane fluxes were similar to those simulated in the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), but magnitude depends on model parameterization and input data, especially regarding wetland extent. The model was unable to simulate short-term (sub-weekly) variability. Temperature was found to be a stronger driver of regional CH 4 flux than moisture availability or net ecosystem production at the daily to monthly scale. Taken together, these results emphasize the multi-timescale dependence of drivers of regional methane flux and the importance of long, continuous time series for their characterization.

Wisconsin↗

Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise threatens U.S. rural coastal landscapes and communities

The United States (U.S.) coastal plain is subject to rising sea levels, land subsidence, more severe coastal storms, and more intense droughts. These changes lead to inputs of marine salts into freshwater-dependent coastal systems, creating saltwater intrusion. The penetration of salinity into the coastal interior is exacerbated by groundwater extraction and the high density of agricultural canals and ditches throughout much of the rural U.S. landscape. Together saltwater intrusion and sea level rise (SWISLR) create substantial changes to the social-ecological systems situated along the coastal plain. Many scholars and practitioners are engaged in studying and managing SWISLR impacts on social, economic, and ecological systems. However, most efforts are localized and disconnected, despite a widespread desire to understand this common threat. In addition to variable rates of sea level rise across the U.S. outer coastal plain, differences in geomorphic setting, water resources infrastructure and management, and climate extremes are resulting in different patterns of saltwater intrusion. Understanding both the absolute magnitude of this rapid environmental change, and the causes and consequences for its spatial and temporal variation presents an opportunity to build new mechanistic models to link directional climate change to temporally and spatially dynamic socio-environmental impacts. The diverse trajectories of change offer rich opportunities to test and refine modern theories of ecosystem state change in systems with exceptionally strong socioecological feedbacks.

Anthropocene↗

Landscape unit based digital elevation model development for the freshwater wetlands within the Arthur C. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Southeastern Florida

The hydrologic regime is a critical limiting factor in the delicate ecosystem of the greater Everglades freshwater wetlands in south Florida that has been severely altered by management activities in the past several decades. "Getting the water right" is regarded as the key to successful restoration of this unique wetland ecosystem. An essential component to represent and model its hydrologic regime, specifically water depth, is an accurate ground Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) supplies important hydrologic data, and its products (including a ground DEM) have been well received by scientists and resource managers involved in Everglades restoration. This study improves the EDEN DEMs of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, also known as Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA1), by adopting a landscape unit (LU) based interpolation approach. The study first filtered the input elevation data based on newly available vegetation data, and then created a separate geostatistical model (universal kriging) for each LU. The resultant DEMs have encouraging cross-validation and validation results, especially since the validation is based on an independent elevation dataset (derived by subtracting water depth measurements from EDEN water surface elevations). The DEM product of this study will directly benefit hydrologic and ecological studies as well as restoration efforts. The study will also be valuable for a broad range of wetland studies.

Florida↗

Disease in a dynamic landscape: host behavior and wildfire reduce amphibian chytrid infection

Disturbances are often expected to magnify effects of disease, but these effects may depend on the ecology, behavior, and life history of both hosts and pathogens. In many ecosystems, wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance and thus could directly or indirectly affect dynamics of many diseases. To determine how probability of infection by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) varies relative to habitat use by individuals, wildfire, and host characteristics, we sampled 404 boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) across Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Bd causes chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease linked with widespread amphibian declines, including the boreal toad. Probability of infection was similar for females and the combined group of males and juveniles. However, only 9% of terrestrial toads were infected compared to >30% of aquatic toads, and toads captured in recently burned areas were half as likely to be infected as toads in unburned areas. We suspect these large differences in infection reflect habitat choices by individuals that affect pathogen exposure and persistence, especially in burned forests where warm, arid conditions could limit Bd growth. Our results show that natural disturbances such as wildfire and the resulting diverse habitats can influence infection across large landscapes, potentially maintaining local refuges and host behaviors that facilitate evolution of disease resistance.

Montana↗

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the &ldquo;social carrying capacity for development&rdquo; &ndash; or SK d &ndash; for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem &ldquo;acceptable&rdquo; within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by &minus;15.9% and &minus;3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗