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USGS2011

Transient and steady state creep response of ice I and magnesium sulfate hydrate eutectic aggregates

Using uniaxial compression creep experiments, we characterized the transient and steady state deformation behaviors of eutectic aggregates of system ice I and MgSO4 11H2O (MS11; meridianiite), which has significance because of its likely presence on moons of the outer solar system. Synthetic samples of eutectic liquid bulk composition, which produce eutectic colonies containing 0.35-0.50 volume fraction MS11, were tested as functions of colony size and lamellar spacing, temperature (230-250 K), and confining pressure (0.1 and 50 MPa) to strains ???0.2. Up to a differential stress of 6 MPa, the ice I-MS11 aggregates display an order of magnitude higher effective viscosity and higher stress sensitivity than do aggregates of pure polycrystalline ice at the same conditions. The creep data and associated microstructural observations demonstrate, however, that the aggregates are additionally more brittle than pure ice, approaching rate-independent plasticity that includes rupture of the hydrate phase at 6-8 MPa, depending on the scale of the microstructure. Microstructures of deformed samples reveal forms of semibrittle flow in which the hydrate phase fractures while the ice phase deforms plastically. Semibrittle flow in the icy shell of a planetary body would truncate the lithospheric strength envelope and thereby decrease the depth to the brittle-ductile transition by 55% and reduce the failure limit for compressional surface features from 10 to ???6 MPa. A constitutive equation that includes eutectic colony boundary sliding and intracolony flow is used to describe the steady state rheology of the eutectic aggregates. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Columbus crater and other possible groundwater-fed paleolakes of Terra Sirenum, Mars

Columbus crater in the Terra Sirenum region of the Martian southern highlands contains light‐toned layered deposits with interbedded sulfate and phyllosilicate minerals, a rare occurrence on Mars. Here we investigate in detail the morphology, thermophysical properties, mineralogy, and stratigraphy of these deposits; explore their regional context; and interpret the crater's aqueous history. Hydrated mineral‐bearing deposits occupy a discrete ring around the walls of Columbus crater and are also exposed beneath younger materials, possibly lava flows, on its floor. Widespread minerals identified in the crater include gypsum, polyhydrated and monohydrated Mg/Fe‐sulfates, and kaolinite; localized deposits consistent with montmorillonite, Fe/Mg‐phyllosilicates, jarosite, alunite, and crystalline ferric oxide or hydroxide are also detected. Thermal emission spectra suggest abundances of these minerals in the tens of percent range. Other craters in northwest Terra Sirenum also contain layered deposits and Al/Fe/Mg‐phyllosilicates, but sulfates have so far been found only in Columbus and Cross craters. The region's intercrater plains contain scattered exposures of Al‐phyllosilicates and one isolated mound with opaline silica, in addition to more common Fe/Mg‐phyllosilicates with chlorides. A Late Noachian age is estimated for the aqueous deposits in Columbus, coinciding with a period of inferred groundwater upwelling and evaporation, which (according to model results reported here) could have formed evaporites in Columbus and other craters in Terra Sirenum. Hypotheses for the origin of these deposits include groundwater cementation of crater‐filling sediments and/or direct precipitation from subaerial springs or in a deep (∼900 m) paleolake. Especially under the deep lake scenario, which we prefer, chemical gradients in Columbus crater may have created a habitable environment at this location on early Mars.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Goldschmidt crater and the Moon's north polar region: Results from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)

Soils within the impact crater Goldschmidt have been identified as spectrally distinct from the local highland material. High spatial and spectral resolution data from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M 3 ) on the Chandrayaan-1 orbiter are used to examine the character of Goldschmidt crater in detail. Spectral parameters applied to a north polar mosaic of M 3 data are used to discern large-scale compositional trends at the northern high latitudes, and spectra from three widely separated regions are compared to spectra from Goldschmidt. The results highlight the compositional diversity of the lunar nearside, in particular, where feldspathic soils with a low-Ca pyroxene component are pervasive, but exclusively feldspathic regions and small areas of basaltic composition are also observed. Additionally, we find that the relative strengths of the diagnostic OH/H 2 O absorption feature near 3000 nm are correlated with the mineralogy of the host material. On both global and local scales, the strongest hydrous absorptions occur on the more feldspathic surfaces. Thus, M 3 data suggest that while the feldspathic soils within Goldschmidt crater are enhanced in OH/H 2 O compared to the relatively mafic nearside polar highlands, their hydration signatures are similar to those observed in the feldspathic highlands on the farside.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Thorium abundances of basalt ponds in South Pole-Aitken basin: Insights into the composition and evolution of the far side lunar mantle

Imbrian-aged basalt ponds, located on the floor of South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin, are used to provide constraints on the composition and evolution of the far side lunar mantle. We use forward modeling of the Lunar Prospector Gamma Ray Spectrometer thorium data, to suggest that at least five different and distinct portions of the far side lunar mantle contain little or no thorium as of the Imbrian Period. We also use spatial correlations between local thorium enhancements and nonmare material on top of the basalt ponds to support previous assertions that lower crustal materials exposed in SPA basin have elevated thorium abundances, consistent with noritic to gabbronoritic lithologies. We suggest that the lower crust on the far side of the Moon experienced multiple intrusions of thorium-rich basaltic magmas, prior to the formation of SPA basin. The fact that many of the ponds on the lunar far side have elevated titanium abundances indicates that the far side of the Moon experienced extensive fractional crystallization that likely led to the formation of a KREEP-like component. However, because the Imbrian-aged basalts contain no signs of elevated thorium, we propose that the SPA impact event triggered the transport of a KREEP-like component from the lunar far side and concentrated it on the nearside of the Moon. Because of the correlation between basaltic ponds and basins within SPA, we suggest that Imbrian-aged basaltic volcanism on the far side of the Moon was driven by basin-induced decompressional melting.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

A wavelength-dependent visible and infrared spectrophotometric function for the Moon based on ROLO data

The USGS's Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) dedicated ground‐based lunar calibration project obtained photometric observations of the Moon over the spectral range attainable from Earth (0.347–2.39 μ m) and over solar phase angles of 1.55°–97°. From these observations, we derived empirical lunar surface solar phase functions for both the highlands and maria that can be used for a wide range of applications. The functions can be used to correct for the effects of viewing geometry to produce lunar mosaics, spectra, and quick‐look products for future lunar missions and ground‐based observations. Our methodology can be used for a wide range of objects for which multiply scattered radiation is not significant, including all but the very brightest asteroids and moons.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Compositional diversity and geologic insights of the Aristarchus crater from Moon Mineralogy Mapper data

The Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) acquired high spatial and spectral resolution data of the Aristarchus Plateau with 140 m/pixel in 85 spectral bands from 0.43 to 3.0 m. The data were collected as radiance and converted to reflectance using the observational constraints and a solar spectrum scaled to the Moon-Sun distance. Summary spectral parameters for the area of mafic silicate 1 and 2 m bands were calculated from the M3 data and used to map the distribution of key units that were then analyzed in detail with the spectral data. This analysis focuses on five key compositional units in the region. (1) The central peaks are shown to be strongly enriched in feldspar and are likely from the upper plagioclase-rich crust of the Moon. (2) The impact melt is compositionally diverse with clear signatures of feldspathic crust, olivine, and glass. (3) The crater walls and ejecta show a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and evidence for massive breccia blocks. (4) Olivine, strongly concentrated on the rim, wall, and exterior of the southeastern quadrant of the crater, is commonly associated the impact melt. (5) There are at least two types of glass deposits observed: pyroclastic glass and impact glass. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Newer views of the Moon: Comparing spectra from Clementine and the Moon Mineralogy Mapper

The Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M 3 ) provided the first global hyperspectral data of the lunar surface in 85 bands from 460 to 2980 nm. The Clementine mission provided the first global multispectral maps the lunar surface in 11 spectral bands across the ultraviolet-visible (UV-VIS) and near-infrared (NIR). In an effort to understand how M 3 improves our ability to analyze and interpret lunar data, we compare M 3 spectra with those from Clementine's UV-VIS and NIR cameras. The Clementine mission provided the first global multispectral maps the lunar surface in 11 spectral bands across the UV-VIS and NIR. We have found that M 3 reflectance values are lower across all wavelengths compared with albedos from both of Clementine's UV-VIS and NIR cameras. M 3 spectra show the Moon to be redder, that is, have a steeper continuum slope, than indicated by Clementine. The 1 μ m absorption band depths may be comparable between the instruments, but Clementine data consistently exhibit shallower 2 μ m band depths than M 3 . Absorption band minimums are difficult to compare due to the significantly different spectral resolutions.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2011

M3 spectral analysis of lunar swirls and the link between optical maturation and surface hydroxyl formation at magnetic anomalies

We examined the lunar swirls using data from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M 3 ). The improved spectral and spatial resolution of M 3 over previous spectral imaging data facilitates distinction of subtle spectral differences, and provides new information about the nature of these enigmatic features. We characterized spectral features of the swirls, interswirl regions (dark lanes), and surrounding terrain for each of three focus regions: Reiner Gamma, Gerasimovich, and Mare Ingenii. We used Principle Component Analysis to identify spectrally distinct surfaces at each focus region, and characterize the spectral features that distinguish them. We compared spectra from small, recent impact craters with the mature soils into which they penetrated to examine differences in maturation trends on- and off-swirl. Fresh, on-swirl crater spectra are higher albedo, exhibit a wider range in albedos and have well-preserved mafic absorption features compared with fresh off-swirl craters. Albedoand mafic absorptions are still evident in undisturbed, on-swirl surface soils, suggesting the maturation process is retarded. The spectral continuum is more concave compared with off-swirl spectra; a result of the limited spectral reddening being mostly constrained to wavelengths less than ∼1500 nm. Off-swirl spectra show very little reddening or change in continuum shape across the entire M 3 spectral range. Off-swirl spectra are dark, have attenuated absorption features, and the narrow range in off-swirl albedos suggests off-swirl regions mature rapidly. Spectral parameter maps depicting the relative OH surface abundance for each of our three swirl focus regions were created using the depth of the hydroxyl absorption feature at 2.82 μ m. For each of the studied regions, the 2.82 μ m absorption feature is significantly weaker on-swirl than off-swirl, indicating the swirls are depleted in OH relative to their surroundings. The spectral characteristics of the swirls and adjacent terrains from all three focus regions support the hypothesis that the magnetic anomalies deflect solar wind ions away from the swirls and onto off-swirl surfaces. Nanophase iron (npFe 0 ) is largely responsible for the spectral characteristics we attribute to space weathering and maturation, and is created by vaporization/deposition by micrometeorite impacts and sputtering/reduction by solar wind ions. On the swirls, the decreased proton flux slows the spectral effects of space weathering (relative to nonswirl regions) by limiting the npFe 0 production mechanism almost exclusively to micrometeoroid impact vaporization/deposition. Immediately adjacent to the swirls, maturation is accelerated by the increased flux of protons deflected from the swirls.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Remote compositional analysis of lunar olivine-rich lithologies with Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) spectra

A systematic approach for deconvolving remotely sensed lunar olivine‐rich visible to near‐infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra with the Modified Gaussian Model (MGM) is evaluated with Chandrayaan‐1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M 3 ) spectra. Whereas earlier studies of laboratory reflectance spectra focused only on complications due to chromite inclusions in lunar olivines, we develop a systematic approach for addressing (through continuum removal) the prominent continuum slopes common to remotely sensed reflectance spectra of planetary surfaces. We have validated our continuum removal on a suite of laboratory reflectance spectra. Suites of olivine‐dominated reflectance spectra from a small crater near Mare Moscoviense, the Copernicus central peak, Aristarchus, and the crater Marius in the Marius Hills were analyzed. Spectral diversity was detected in visual evaluation of the spectra and was quantified using the MGM. The MGM‐derived band positions are used to estimate the olivine's composition in a relative sense. Spectra of olivines from Moscoviense exhibit diversity in their absorption features, and this diversity suggests some variation in olivine Fe/Mg content. Olivines from Copernicus are observed to be spectrally homogeneous and thus are predicted to be more compositionally homogeneous than those at Moscoviense but are of broadly similar composition to the Moscoviense olivines. Olivines from Aristarchus and Marius exhibit clear spectral differences from those at Moscoviense and Copernicus but also exhibit features that suggest contributions from other phases. If the various precautions discussed here are weighed carefully, the methods presented here can be used to make general predictions of absolute olivine composition (Fe/Mg content).

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Lunar mare deposits associated with the Orientale impact basin: New insights into mineralogy, history, mode of emplacement, and relation to Orientale Basin evolution from Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) data from Chandrayaan-1

Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) image and spectral reflectance data are combined to analyze mare basalt units in and adjacent to the Orientale multiring impact basin. Models are assessed for the relationships between basin formation and mare basalt emplacement. Mare basalt emplacement on the western nearside limb began prior to the Orientale event as evidenced by the presence of cryptomaria. The earliest post-Orientale-event mare basalt emplacement occurred in the center of the basin (Mare Orientale) and postdated the formation of the Orientale Basin by about 60-100 Ma. Over the next several hundred million years, basalt patches were emplaced first along the base of the Outer Rook ring (Lacus Veris) and then along the base of the Cordillera ring (Lacus Autumni), with some overlap in ages. The latest basalt patches are as young as some of the youngest basalt deposits on the lunar nearside. M3 data show several previously undetected mare patches on the southwestern margins of the basin interior. Regardless, the previously documented increase in mare abundance from the southwest toward the northeast is still prominent. We attribute this to crustal and lithospheric trends moving from the farside to the nearside, with correspondingly shallower density and thermal barriers to basaltic magma ascent and eruption toward the nearside. The wide range of model ages for Orientale mare deposits (3.70-1.66 Ga) mirrors the range of nearside mare ages, indicating that the small amount of mare fill in Orientale is not due to early cessation of mare emplacement but rather to limited volumes of extrusion for each phase during the entire period of nearside mare basalt volcanism. This suggests that nearside and farside source regions may be similar but that other factors, such as thermal and crustal thickness barriers to magma ascent and eruption, may be determining the abundance of surface deposits on the limbs and farside. The sequence, timing, and elevation of mare basalt deposits suggest that regional basin-related stresses exerted control on their distribution. Our analysis clearly shows that Orientale serves as an excellent example of the early stages of the filling of impact basins with mare basalt. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Opportunity Mars Rover mission: Overview and selected results from Purgatory ripple to traverses to Endeavour crater

Opportunity has been traversing the Meridiani plains since 25 January 2004 (sol 1), acquiring numerous observations of the atmosphere, soils, and rocks. This paper provides an overview of key discoveries between sols 511 and 2300, complementing earlier papers covering results from the initial phases of the mission. Key new results include (1) atmospheric argon measurements that demonstrate the importance of atmospheric transport to and from the winter carbon dioxide polar ice caps; (2) observations showing that aeolian ripples covering the plains were generated by easterly winds during an epoch with enhanced Hadley cell circulation; (3) the discovery and characterization of cobbles and boulders that include iron and stony-iron meteorites and Martian impact ejecta; (4) measurements of wall rock strata within Erebus and Victoria craters that provide compelling evidence of formation by aeolian sand deposition, with local reworking within ephemeral lakes; (5) determination that the stratigraphy exposed in the walls of Victoria and Endurance craters show an enrichment of chlorine and depletion of magnesium and sulfur with increasing depth. This result implies that regional-scale aqueous alteration took place before formation of these craters. Most recently, Opportunity has been traversing toward the ancient Endeavour crater. Orbital data show that clay minerals are exposed on its rim. Hydrated sulfate minerals are exposed in plains rocks adjacent to the rim, unlike the surfaces of plains outcrops observed thus far by Opportunity. With continued mechanical health, Opportunity will reach terrains on and around Endeavour's rim that will be markedly different from anything examined to date.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Optical maturity variation in lunar spectra as measured by Moon Mineralogy Mapper data

High spectral and spatial resolution data from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) instrument on Chandrayaan-1 are used to investigate in detail changes in the optical properties of lunar materials accompanying space weathering. Three spectral parameters were developed and used to quantify spectral effects commonly thought to be associated with increasing optical maturity: an increase in spectral slope ("reddening"), a decrease in albedo ("darkening"), and loss of spectral contrast (decrease in absorption band depth). Small regions of study were defined that sample the ejecta deposits of small fresh craters that contain relatively crystalline (immature) material that grade into local background (mature) soils. Selected craters are small enough that they can be assumed to be of constant composition and thus are useful for evaluating trends in optical maturity. Color composites were also used to identify the most immature material in a region and show that maturity trends can also be identified using regional soil trends. The high resolution M3 data are well suited to quantifying the spectral changes that accompany space weathering and are able to capture subtle spectral variations in maturity trends. However, the spectral changes that occur as a function of maturity were observed to be dependent on local composition. Given the complexity of space weathering processes, this was not unexpected but poses challenges for absolute measures of optical maturity across diverse lunar terrains. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Field Reconnaissance Geologic Mapping of the Columbia Hills, Mars: Results from MER Spirit and MRO HiRISE Observations

Chemical, mineralogic, and lithologic ground truth was acquired for the first time on Mars in terrain units mapped using orbital Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (MRO HiRISE) image data. Examination of several dozen outcrops shows that Mars is geologically complex at meter length scales, the record of its geologic history is well exposed, stratigraphic units may be identified and correlated across significant areas on the ground, and outcrops and geologic relationships between materials may be analyzed with techniques commonly employed in terrestrial field geology. Despite their burial during the course of Martian geologic time by widespread epiclastic materials, mobile fines, and fall deposits, the selective exhumation of deep and well-preserved geologic units has exposed undisturbed outcrops, stratigraphic sections, and structural information much as they are preserved and exposed on Earth. A rich geologic record awaits skilled future field investigators on Mars. The correlation of ground observations and orbital images enables construction of a corresponding geologic reconnaissance map. Most of the outcrops visited are interpreted to be pyroclastic, impactite, and epiclastic deposits overlying an unexposed substrate, probably related to a modified Gusev crater central peak. Fluids have altered chemistry and mineralogy of these protoliths in degrees that vary substantially within the same map unit. Examination of the rocks exposed above and below the major unconformity between the plains lavas and the Columbia Hills directly confirms the general conclusion from remote sensing in previous studies over past years that the early history of Mars was a time of more intense deposition and modification of the surface. Although the availability of fluids and the chemical and mineral activity declined from this early period, significant later volcanism and fluid convection enabled additional, if localized, chemical activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Thermal removal from near-infrared imaging spectroscopy data of the Moon

In the near-infrared from about 2 μ m to beyond 3 μ m, the light from the Moon is a combination of reflected sunlight and emitted thermal emission. There are multiple complexities in separating the two signals, including knowledge of the local solar incidence angle due to topography, phase angle dependencies, emissivity, and instrument calibration. Thermal emission adds to apparent reflectance, and because the emission's contribution increases over the reflected sunlight with increasing wavelength, absorption bands in the lunar reflectance spectra can be modified. In particular, the shape of the 2 μ m pyroxene band can be distorted by thermal emission, changing spectrally determined pyroxene composition and abundance. Because of the thermal emission contribution, water and hydroxyl absorptions are reduced in strength, lowering apparent abundances. It is important to quantify and remove the thermal emission for these reasons. We developed a method for deriving the temperature and emissivity from spectra of the lunar surface and removing the thermal emission in the near infrared. The method is fast enough that it can be applied to imaging spectroscopy data on the Moon.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Characteristics, distribution, origin, and significance of opaline silica observed by the Spirit rover in Gusev crater, Mars

The presence of outcrops and soil (regolith) rich in opaline silica (∼65–92 wt % SiO 2 ) in association with volcanic materials adjacent to the “Home Plate” feature in Gusev crater is evidence for hydrothermal conditions. The Spirit rover has supplied a diverse set of observations that are used here to better understand the formation of silica and the activity, abundance, and fate of water in the first hydrothermal system to be explored in situ on Mars. We apply spectral, chemical, morphological, textural, and stratigraphic observations to assess whether the silica was produced by acid sulfate leaching of precursor rocks, by precipitation from silica‐rich solutions, or by some combination. The apparent lack of S enrichment and the relatively low oxidation state of the Home Plate silica‐rich materials appear inconsistent with the originally proposed Hawaiian analog for fumarolic acid sulfate leaching. The stratiform distribution of the silica‐rich outcrops and their porous and brecciated microtextures are consistent with sinter produced by silica precipitation. There is no evidence for crystalline quartz phases among the silica occurrences, an indication of the lack of diagenetic maturation following the production of the amorphous opaline phase.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Regional-scale stratigraphy of surface units in Tyrrhena and Iapygia Terrae, Mars: Insights into highland crustal evolution and alteration history

The compositional, thermophysical and geologic characteristics of surface units in Iapygia and Tyrrhena Terra (60°E–100°E, 0°–30°S) provide new insights into the compositional stratigraphy of the region. Intercrater plains are dominated by two surface units. The older unit (unit 1) is deficient in olivine and more degraded and likely consists of a mixture of impact, volcanic and sedimentary materials. The younger unit (unit 2) is enriched in olivine, exhibits a resistant morphology and higher thermal inertia, and likely represents volcanic infilling of plains. Units 1 and 2 bear a strong resemblance to those previously mapped in Mare Serpentis, a section of highlands crust located northwest of Hellas Basin. Thus, the two major intercrater plains units are even more widespread than previously thought and therefore likely constitute important components of Mars' highland stratigraphy. Many craters in the region contain high thermal inertia deposits (unit 3) that are compositionally identical to unit 2. These may have formed via volcanic infilling or may represent sedimentary materials that have been eroded from crater walls and lithified. Less common units include olivine and/or pyroxene‐rich massifs and crater central peaks. These are primarily found within Hellas Basin rim units and may represent mantle materials brought toward the surface during the Hellas impact. Putative chloride deposits are primarily associated with olivine‐deficient surfaces (unit 1) that may be heavily degraded occurrences of unit 2. The observations raise a variety of questions related to Martian crustal evolution and alteration that may have more widespread implications outside the study region.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2011

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 < rate < 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate < -1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate > 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗