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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2023

HABs and HAB nots: Dynamics of phytoplankton blooms across similar oligotrophic reservoirs

Increasing frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) threaten human and aquatic ecosystem health. Improving our understanding of HABs across a range of systems will be critical to understanding and potentially minimizing risk, especially where HABs are occurring in less productive and less studied waterbodies. Here, the characteristics and annual dynamics of phytoplankton communities were examined, focusing on the timing, magnitude, and predictability of cyanobacterial blooms in five multi-purpose flood-control reservoirs from the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA. A high similarity in phytoplankton composition and consistency in the timing of cyanobacterial dominance was hypothesized to occur across these oligotrophic reservoirs. However, periods of dominance by potentially HABs producing genera were inconsistent both in their timing and abundances among reservoirs and across years within each reservoir. The lack of regional predictability indicates the importance of local drivers in the formation, intensity, and composition of phytoplankton blooms. These findings have important implications for reservoir management and safeguarding freshwater drinking sources, as not all reservoirs appear to experience cyanobacterial blooms at the same time, demonstrating non-concurrent risks of HABs.

Limnologica - Ecology and Management of Inland Wat↗
USGS2010

Role of origin and release location in pre-spawning distribution and movements of anadromous alewife

Capturing adult anadromous fish that are ready to spawn from a self sustaining population and transferring them into a depleted system is a common fisheries enhancement tool. The behaviour of these transplanted fish, however, has not been fully evaluated. The movements of stocked and native anadromous alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus (Wilson), were monitored in the Ipswich River, Massachusetts, USA, to provide a scientific basis for this management tool. Radiotelemetry was used to examine the effect of origin (native or stocked) and release location (upstream or downstream) on distribution and movement during the spawning migration. Native fish remained in the river longer than stocked fish regardless of release location. Release location and origin influenced where fish spent time and how they moved. The spatial mosaic of available habitats and the entire trajectory of freshwater movements should be considered to restore effectively spawners that traverse tens of kilometres within coastal rivers.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗
USGS2007

Spatially continuous interpolation of water stage and water depths using the Everglades depth estimation network (EDEN)

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of real-time water-level monitoring, ground-elevation modeling, and water-surface modeling that provides scientists and managers with current (2000-present), online water-stage and water-depth information for the entire freshwater portion of the Greater Everglades. Continuous daily spatial interpolations of the EDEN network stage data are presented on a 400-square-meter grid spacing. EDEN offers a consistent and documented dataset that can be used by scientists and managers to (1) guide large-scale field operations, (2) integrate hydrologic and ecological responses, and (3) support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem responses to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) The target users are biologists and ecologists examining trophic level responses to hydrodynamic changes in the Everglades.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Contrasting haemosporidian infections in two ecologically distinct wading birds from breeding colonies in the southeastern United States

Wading birds may serve as ideal hosts for avian hemoparasites, as they are long-lived, undertake extensive movements, form dense breeding colonies, and inhabit water-associated environments that support vectors. Although previous studies have reported parasite species and prevalence in various wading bird species, little is known about their associations with bird behavior and life stage. To address this gap, we examined haemosporidian infections in two ecologically distinct species, white ibis ( Eudocimus albus ) and tricolored heron ( Egretta tricolor ), to explore differences in life stage and movement that may explain prevalence differences. We combined blood screening for hemoparasites with satellite tracking data describing birds’ movement patterns. We screened 95 white ibis (67 juveniles and 28 adults or subadults) and 69 tricolored herons (45 juveniles and 24 adults). We detected a single Haemoproteus plataleae lineage in both species, with higher infection prevalence in white ibis (42.1 %) than in tricolored herons (14.5 %). Among white ibis, adults showed a higher prevalence (67.9 %) than juveniles (31.3 %), whereas in tricolored herons, adults had a prevalence of 8.3 % and juveniles 17.8 %. Non-breeding season movement data showed that white ibis used both freshwater and saline habitats across the southeastern United States, which may also serve as habitats for vectors. In contrast, tricolored herons remained mainly along coastal areas, using saline habitats in the southeastern United States and wintering sites in Central America, which may be less favorable for vectors. Overall, white ibis may serve as major reservoirs and sources of reinfection for H. plataleae , whereas tricolored herons may facilitate parasite dispersal between breeding colonies along the coasts of the southeastern United States and wintering areas in Central America. This study presents the first direct comparison of hemoparasite infections in two ecologically distinct wading birds and highlights movement data as key to explaining infection differences, providing a baseline for future studies.

Alabama↗
USGS2021

Resistance and resilience of pelagic and littoral fishes to drought in the San Francisco Estuary

Many estuarine ecosystems and the fish communities that inhabit them have undergone substantial changes in the past several decades, largely due to multiple interacting stressors that are often of anthropogenic origin. Few are more impactful than droughts, which are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity with climate change. In this study, we examined over five decades of fish monitoring data from the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, to evaluate the resistance and resilience of fish communities to disturbance from prolonged drought events. High resistance was defined by the lack of decline in species occurrence from a wet to a subsequent drought period, while high resilience was defined by the increase in species occurrence from a drought to a subsequent wet period. We found some unifying themes connecting the multiple drought events over the 50‐yr period. Pelagic fishes consistently declined during droughts (low resistance), but exhibit a considerable amount of resiliency and often rebound in the subsequent wet years. However, full recovery does not occur in all wet years following droughts, leading to permanently lower baseline numbers for some pelagic fishes over time. In contrast, littoral fishes seem to be more resistant to drought and may even increase in occurrence during dry years. Based on the consistent detrimental effects of drought on pelagic fishes within the San Francisco Estuary and the inability of these fish populations to recover in some years, we conclude that freshwater flow remains a crucial but not sufficient management tool for the conservation of estuarine biodiversity.

California↗
USGS2026

PFAS contamination in Florida estuarine fishes: Levels, patterns, and estimated human and ecological health risks

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a significant health threat due to their environmental persistence and toxicity. While PFAS contamination is widespread in Florida, the state currently lacks fish consumption advisories (FCAs) for these compounds, despite existing FCAs for legacy pollutants. This study quantified 40 PFAS in edible muscle tissue from 264 fish (16 species) across four estuaries along Florida's Atlantic coast to assess ecological and human health risks. The highest concentrations of total PFAS were found in Red Drum ( Sciaenops ocellatus ; 0.209 – 51.6 ng/g wet weight) and Spotted Seatrout ( Cynoscion nebulosus; 2.01 – 24.3 ng/g ww) in the Indian River Lagoon, where up to 68% of Red Drum and 75% of Spotted Seatrout exceeded ecological quality standards, indicating potential impacts on predators. PFOS was the predominant PFAS, driving ecological and human health risks. Estimated daily intakes (EDIs) of PFOS exceeded the EPA reference dose (RfD) by up to 3 orders of magnitude, with the highest exposures concentrated in Red Drum and Spotted Seatrout from the Indian River Lagoon. These findings highlight that PFAS monitoring of tissue concentrations in fish across Florida's freshwater and marine systems would be needed for accurately quantifying exposure risks. Such efforts are fundamental to informing regulatory frameworks regarding FCAs and ensuring the long-term protection of aquatic ecosystems and human health.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) ecological model documentation volume 2: roseate spoonbill ( Platalea ajaja ) landscape habitat suitability index v1.0.0

Ecological conditions in the Greater Everglades have changed due to human activities, including the construction of canals to divert water away from the core of the landscape. Current and planned restoration projects are designed to produce a natural sheetflow of water across the landscape. This restoration of water flow should provide an increase in freshwater needed to restore natural salinities to the fringing estuarine ecosystem. In this report, we describe a Landscape Habitat Suitability Index model designed to evaluate alternative restoration plans for the benefit of a key species, the roseate spoonbill (Platalea ajaja). Model output has shown to be a good indicator of areas capable of supporting spoonbills. Use of this model will allow examination of the potential response of this key species to water management proposed through the Greater Everglades restoration process.

Florida↗
USGS2005

Changes in the fish fauna of the Kissimmee River basin, peninsular Florida: Nonnative additions

Recent decades have seen substantial changes in fish assemblages in rivers of peninsular Florida. The most striking change has involved the addition of nonnative fishes, including taxa from Asia, Africa, and Central and South America. I review recent and historical records of fishes occurring in the Kissimmee River basin (7,800 km2), a low-gradient drainage with 47 extant native fishes (one possibly the result of an early transplant), at least 7 foreign fishes (most of which are widely established), and a stocked hybrid. Kissimmee assemblages include fewer marine fishes than the nearby Peace and Caloosahatchee rivers, and fewer introduced foreign fishes than south Florida canals. Fish assemblages of the Kissimmee and other subtropical Florida rivers are dynamic, due to new introductions, range expansions of nonnative fishes already present, and periodic declines in nonnative fish populations during occasional harsh winters. The addition, dispersal, and abundance of nonnative fishes in the basin is linked to many factors, including habitat disturbance, a subtropical climate, and the fact that the basin is centrally located in a region where drainage boundaries are blurred and introductions of foreign fishes commonplace. The first appearance of foreign fishes in the basin coincided with the complete channelization of the Kissimmee River in the 1970s. Although not a causal factor, artificial waterways connecting the upper lakes and channelization of the Kissimmee River have facilitated dispersal. With one possible exception, there have been no basin-wide losses of native fishes. When assessing change in peninsular Florida waters, extinction or extirpation of fishes appears to be a poor measure of impact. No endemic species are known from peninsular Florida (although some endemic subspecies have been noted). Most native freshwater fishes are themselves descended from recent invaders that reached the peninsula from the main continent. These invasions likely were associated with major fluctuations in sea level since the original mid-Oligocene emergence of the Florida Platform. As opportunistic invaders, most native freshwater fishes in peninsular Florida are resilient, widespread, and common. At this early stage, it is not possible to predict the long-term consequences caused by the introduction of foreign fishes. We know a few details about the unusual trophic roles and other aspects of the life histories of certain nonnatives. Still, the ecological outcome may take decades to unfold.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗
USGS2016

Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2024

Fish size structures in lakes of the Lower Mississippi River floodplain

The Lower Mississippi River has a floodplain that includes >1350 perennial lakes carved by shifts in river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes over eons. Notwithstanding their similar provenances, these waterbodies exhibit an immense variety of morphologies and successional stages that illustrate their natural trajectory from aquatic to forested wetlands. A result of this geographical, morphological and temporal diversity is dynamic and varied fish communities. We examined how size structures of fish communities in these floodplain lakes were associated with key in-lake and off-lake environmental drivers. Fish lengths were collected with standardised procedures in a sample of 30 of these lakes to construct a lake-by-length group matrix. Likewise, in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors were collected to construct a lake-by-covariate matrix. Distance-based linear models were used to assess associations between fish size structure and environmental descriptors. Smaller fish were typically associated with increasing levels of turbidity, chlorophyll- a , phycocyanin and surrounding agriculture. Shallow, hypereutrophic floodplain lakes associated with agricultural landscapes and reduced connectivity experience harsh physicochemical environments. These conditions appeared to hinder the formation of sustained fish communities but may confer a survival advantage to juveniles or small short-lived species. Conversely, larger fish were associated with increasing lake depth, water clarity, connectivity, and extent of surrounding forests-wetlands. Enhanced stability and size structure were observed in communities residing in deeper and clearer lakes, suggesting that these conditions facilitated the development of longer-lived species spanning multiple age groups. The enhanced connectivity that facilitated this increased stability also permitted the presence of larger itinerant species. Size-structure assessments can serve as a valuable ecological and biodiversity indicator in floodplain lakes. Size-structure assessments could supplement and, depending on objectives, even supplant conventional taxonomic analyses, and enhance surveillance of this vast and important natural resource.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗
USGS2004

The effects of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in large landscape bioassessments: An example from the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, U.S.A.

1. During late spring 1993-1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 490 wadeable streams in the mid-Atlantic Highlands (MAH) of the U.S. for a variety of physical, chemical and biological indicators of environmental condition. We used the resulting data set to evaluate the importance of differing levels of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in bioassessments by comparing the ability of family versus genus to detect differences among sites classified by type and magnitude of human impact and by stream size. We divided the MAH into two physiographic regions: the Appalachian Plateau where mine drainage (MD) and acidic deposition are major stressors, and the Ridge and Valley where nutrient enrichment is a major stressor. Stream sites were classified into three or four impact classes based on water chemistry and habitat. We used stream order (first to third Strahler order) in each region as a measure of stream size. Ordination, 2 x 2 chi-square and biotic metrics were used to compare the ability of family and genus to detect differences among both stressor and size classes. 2. With one notable exception, there were only a small number of different genera per family (interquartile range = 1-4). Family Chironomidae, however, contained 123 different genera. As a result, significant information loss occurred when this group was only classified to family. The family Chironomidae did not discriminate among the predefined classes but many chironomid genera did: by chi-square analysis, 10 and 28 chironomid genera were significant in discriminating MD and nutrient impacts, respectively. 3. Family and genus data were similar in their ability to distinguish among the coarse impacts (e.g. most severe versus least severe impact classes) for all cases. Though genus data in many cases distinguished the subtler differences (e.g. mixed/moderate impacts versus high or low impacts) better than family, differences in significance levels between family and genus analyses were relatively minor. However, genus data detected differences among stream orders in ordination analyses that were not revealed at the family level. In the ordinations, both family and genus levels of analysis responded to similar suites of environmental variables. 4. Our results suggest that identification to the family level is sufficient for many bioassessment purposes. However, identifications to genus do provide more information in genera-rich families like Chironomidae. Genus or finer levels of identification are important for investigating natural history, stream ecology, biodiversity and indicator species. Decisions about the taxonomic level of identification need to be study specific and depend on available resources (cost) and study objectives.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2012

Passive thermal refugia provided warm water for Florida manatees during the severe winter of 2009-2010

Haloclines induced by freshwater inflow over tidal water have been identified as an important mechanism for maintaining warm water in passive thermal refugia (PTR) used by Florida manatees Trichechus manatus latirostris during winter in extreme southwestern Florida. Record-setting cold during winter 2009–2010 resulted in an unprecedented number of manatee deaths, adding to concerns that PTR may provide inadequate thermal protection during severe cold periods. Hydrological data from 2009–2010 indicate that 2 canal systems in the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) region acted as PTR and maintained warm bottom-water temperatures, even during severe and prolonged cold periods. Aerial survey counts of live and dead manatees in TTI during the winter of 2009–2010 suggest that these PTR were effective at preventing mass mortality from hypothermia, in contrast to the nearby Everglades region, which lacks similar artificial PTR and showed high manatee carcass counts. Hydrological data from winter 2008–2009 confirmed earlier findings that without haloclines these artificial PTR may become ineffective as warm-water sites. Tidal pumping of groundwater appears to provide additional heat to bottom water during low tide cycles, but the associated thermal inversion is not observed unless salinity stratification is present. The finding that halocline-driven PTR can maintain warm water even under extreme winter conditions suggests that they may have significant potential as warm-water sites. However, availability and conflicting uses of freshwater and other management issues may make halocline-driven PTR unreliable or difficult to manage during winter.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Stress gradients structure spatial variability in coastal tidal marsh plant composition and diversity in a major Pacific coast estuary

Understanding the drivers of variability in plant diversity from local to landscape spatial scales is a challenge in ecological systems. Environmental gradients exist at several spatial scales and can be nested hierarchically, influencing patterns of plant diversity in complex ways. As plant community dynamics influence ecosystem function, understanding the drivers of plant community variability across space is paramount for predicting potential shifts in ecosystem function from global change. Determining the scales at which stress gradients influence vegetation composition is crucial to inform management and restoration of tidal marshes for specific functions. Here, we analyzed vegetation community composition in 51 tidal marshes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA. We used model-based compositional analysis and rank abundance curves to quantify environmental (elevation/tidal frame position, distance to channel, and channel salinity) and species trait (species form, wetland indicator status, and native status) influences on plant community variability at the marsh site and estuary scales. While environmental impacts on plant diversity varied by species and their relationships to each other, overall impacts increased in strength from marsh to estuary scales. Relative species abundance was important in structuring these tidal marsh communities even with the limited species pools dominated by a few species. Rank abundance curves revealed different community structures by region with higher species evenness at plots higher in the tidal frame and adjacent to freshwater channels. By identifying interactions (species–species, species–environment, and environment–trait) at multiple scales (local, landscape), we begin to understand how variability measurements could be interpreted for conservation and land management decisions.

California↗
USGS2023

Influence of invasive bigheaded carps on abundance of Gizzard Shad in the Tennessee River

Objective The Tennessee River basin and its cascade of reservoirs are home to some of the most diverse freshwater fish assemblages in the world. This unique system is threatened by the ongoing invasion of Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix and Bighead Carp H. nobilis , hereafter referred to together as “bigheaded carps.” Bigheaded carps may directly compete for food resources with native clupeid species such as Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum , and this potential interaction could have damaging ecological and economic consequences. High relative abundances of Gizzard Shad are crucial to the Tennessee River food web and associated fisheries because of their role as a forage base for piscivorous species. Methods We analyzed a collection of annual gillnetting and electrofishing data spanning from 1990 to 2017 to test whether Gizzard Shad relative abundances have changed in Tennessee River reservoirs since the arrival of bigheaded carps. Result Our analyses indicated that Gizzard Shad abundances have been declining but were already declining prior to the arrival of bigheaded carps in the Tennessee River. Conclusion At this stage in the invasion, we could not attribute a cause-and-effect relationship to the inverse correlation between Gizzard Shad and bigheaded carps, but we advise continued monitoring of indicators of harmful interactions.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South ↗
USGS2005

Acute toxicity value extrapolation with fish and aquatic invertebrates

Assessment of risk posed by an environmental contaminant to an aquatic community requires estimation of both its magnitude of occurrence ( exposure ) and its ability to cause harm ( effects ). Our ability to estimate effects is often hindered by limited toxicological information. As a result, resource managers and environmental regulators are often faced with the need to extrapolate across taxonomic groups in order to protect the more sensitive members of the aquatic community. The goals of this effort were to 1) compile and organize an extensive body of acute toxicity data, 2) characterize the distribution of toxicant sensitivity across taxa and species, and 3) evaluate the utility of toxicity extrapolation methods based upon sensitivity relations among species and chemicals. Although the analysis encompassed a wide range of toxicants and species, pesticides and freshwater fish and invertebrates were emphasized as a reflection of available data. Although it is obviously desirable to have high-quality acute toxicity values for as many species as possible, the results of this effort allow for better use of available information for predicting the sensitivity of untested species to environmental contaminants. A software program entitled “Ecological Risk Analysis” (ERA) was developed that predicts toxicity values for sensitive members of the aquatic community using species sensitivity distributions. Of several methods evaluated, the ERA program used with minimum data sets comprising acute toxicity values for rainbow trout, bluegill, daphnia, and mysids provided the most satisfactory predictions with the least amount of data. However, if predictions must be made using data for a single species, the most satisfactory results were obtained with extrapolation factors developed for rainbow trout (0.412), bluegill (0.331), or scud (0.041). Although many specific exceptions occur, our results also support the conventional wisdom that invertebrates are generally more sensitive to contaminants than fish are.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗
USGS2009

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2013

Trajectory of the arctic as an integrated system

Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic System and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic; and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content.

Ecological Applications↗