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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Editorial: Synthetic Aperture Radar and natural hazards: Applications and outlooks

The ability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to image the Earth’s surface, even through dense cloud cover and in night-and-day conditions, can facilitate the evaluation and monitoring of natural hazards and the management of natural disasters. The family of SAR satellite sensors orbits the Earth at an altitude ranging from 500 to 800 km, following sun-synchronous, near-polar orbits, slightly inclined with respect to Earth meridians. The most commonly used bands in SAR applications are the C-band (5–6 GHz, ~5,6 cm wavelength), the X-band (8–12 GHz, ~3,1 cm wavelength) and the L-band (1–2 GHz ~23 cm wavelength) with a temporal resolution depending on the satellite revisiting time. The availability of SAR has made a new spectrum of measurements possible on a global and spatial scale not attainable by ground-based studies, revealing critical insights into remote or poorly understood areas (e.g., Biggs et al., 2014). This Research Topics presents a review of articles on the state-of-art in the application of SAR sensors to study surface deformation in different geologic environments and triggered by a variety of processes. The topics discussed range from the analysis of co-seismic deformation (Marryman Boncori) to studies of volcanic unrest (Dzurisin et al., Garthwaite et al.), monitoring of landslides (Bianchini et al.) and ground subsidence in urban areas (Solari et al.).

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2019

Commentary: Variability in shelf sedimentation in response to fluvial sediment supply and coastal erosion over the past 1,000 Years in Monterey Bay, CA, United States

A commentary on: Variability in Shelf Sedimentation in Response to Fluvial Sediment Supply and Coastal Erosion Over the Past 1,000 Years in Monterey Bay, CA, United States. by Carlin J., Addison J., Wagner A., Schwartz V., Hayward J., Severin V. (2019) Front. Earth Sci., 7:113. doi: 10.3389/feart.2019.00113

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2019

Dissolved organic carbon turnover in permafrost-influenced watersheds of interior Alaska: Molecular insights and the priming effect

Increased permafrost thaw due to climate change in northern high-latitudes has prompted concern over impacts on soil and stream biogeochemistry that affect the fate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Few studies to-date have examined the link between molecular composition and biolability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) mobilized from different soil horizons despite its importance in understanding carbon turnover in aquatic systems. Additionally, the effect of mixed DOM sources on microbial metabolism (e.g., priming) is not well understood. No studies to-date have addressed potential priming effects in northern high-latitude or permafrost-influenced aquatic ecosystems, yet these ecosystems may be hot spots of priming where biolabile, ancient permafrost DOC mixes with relatively stable, modern stream DOC. To assess biodegradability and priming of DOC in permafrost-influenced streams, we conducted 28 day bioincubation experiments utilizing a suite of stream samples and leachates of fresh vegetation and different soil horizons, including permafrost, from Interior Alaska. The molecular composition of unamended DOM samples at initial and final time points was determined by ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry. Initial molecular composition was correlated to DOC biodegradability, particularly the contribution of energy-rich aliphatic compounds, and stream microbial communities utilized 50–56% of aliphatics in permafrost-derived DOM within 28 days. Biodegradability of DOC followed a continuum from relatively stable stream DOC to relatively biolabile DOC derived from permafrost, active layer organic soil, and vegetation leachates. Microbial utilization of DOC was ∼3–11% for stream bioincubations and ranged from 9% (active layer mineral soil-derived) to 66% (vegetation-derived) for leachate bioincubations. To investigate the presence or absence of a priming effect, bioincubation experiments included treatments amended with 1% relative carbon concentrations of simple, biolabile organic carbon substrates (i.e., primers). The amount of DOC consumed in primed treatments was not significantly different from the control in any of the bioincubation experiments after 28 days, making it apparent that the addition of biolabile permafrost-derived DOC to aquatic ecosystems will likely not enhance the biodegradation of relatively modern, stable DOC sources. Thus, future projections of carbon turnover in northern high-latitude region streams may not have to account for a priming effect.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Spatial and temporal variations in SO2 and PM2.5 levels around Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i during 2007–2018

Among the hazards posed by volcanoes are the emissions of gases and particles that can affect air quality and damage agriculture and infrastructure. A recent intense episode of volcanic degassing associated with severe impacts on air quality accompanied the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i. This resulted in a major increase in gas emission rates with respect to usual emission values for this volcano, along with a shift in the source of the dominant plume to a populated area on the lower flank of the volcano. This led to reduced air quality in downwind communities. We analyse open-access data from the permanent air quality monitoring networks operated by the Hawai'i Department of Health (HDOH) and National Park Service (NPS), and report on measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) between 2007 and 2018 and PM 2.5 (aerosol particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) between 2010 and 2018. Additional air quality data were collected through a community-operated network of low-cost PM 2.5 sensors during the 2018 LERZ eruption. From 2007 to 2018 the two most significant escalations in Kīlauea's volcanic emissions were: the summit eruption that began in 2008 (Kīlauea emissions averaged 5–6 kt/day SO 2 from 2008 until summit activity decreased in May 2018) and the LERZ eruption in 2018 when SO 2 emission rates reached a monthly average of 200 kt/day during June. In this paper we focus on characterizing the airborne pollutants arising from the 2018 LERZ eruption and the spatial distribution and severity of volcanic air pollution events across the Island of Hawai'i. The LERZ eruption caused the most frequent and severe exceedances of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM 2.5 air quality threshold (35 μg/m 3 as a daily average) in Hawai'i in the period 2010–2018. In Kona, for example, the maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of PM 2.5 was recorded as 59 μg/m 3 on the twenty-ninth of May 2018, which was one of eight recorded exceedances of the EPA air quality threshold during the 2018 LERZ eruption, where there had been no exceedances in the previous 8 years as measured by the HDOH and NPS networks. SO 2 air pollution during the LERZ eruption was most severe in communities in the south and west of the island, as measured by selected HDOH and NPS stations in this study, with a maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of 728 μg/m 3 recorded in Ocean View (100 km west of the LERZ emission source) in May 2018. Data from the low-cost sensor network correlated well with data from the HDOH PM 2.5 instruments, confirming that these low-cost sensors provide a robust means to augment reference-grade instrument networks.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Towards reproducible environmental modeling for decision support: A worked example

A fully worked example of decision-support-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter estimation (PE) is presented. The analyses are implemented for an existing groundwater flow model of the Edwards aquifer, Texas, USA, and are completed in a script-based workflow that strives to be transparent and reproducible. High-dimensional PE is used to history-match simulated outputs to corresponding state observations of spring flow and groundwater level. Then a hindcast of a historical drought is made. Using available state observations recorded during drought conditions, the combined UQ and PE analyses are shown to yield an ensemble of model results that bracket the observed hydrologic responses. All files and scripts used for the analyses are placed in the public domain to serve as a template for other practitioners who are interested in undertaking these types of analyses.

Texas↗
USGS2020

Organic matter integration, overprinting, and the relative fraction of optically active organic carbon in a human-impacted watershed

Rivers continually integrate terrestrial organic matter (OM) into their waters, in a process that transfers 1.9 Pg C yr –1 as the primary linkage between oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles. Yet rivers are not simple, conservative OM integrators. Patchy local land uses (wetlands, bogs, agriculture) release OM that can disproportionately alter river biogeochemistry and overprint upstream carbon. These releases are quantifiable at the plot scale but remain unpredictable across river reaches and watersheds, critically inhibiting our ability to scale up terrestrial-aquatic linkages to regional/global carbon cycling models. We evaluated OM overprinting distance along a human-influenced watershed to quantify river integration of terrestrial OM and to bridge the quantification gap between habitats and waterway biogeochemistry. We investigated changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition (lignin phenols, fluorescence excitation-emission spectra using parallel factor analysis [PARAFAC], and the relative fraction of optically active DOM [EEM DOC ]). DOC concentrations increased continually ( p < 0.001) downstream, from median 1.0 mg L –1 at 30 km (headwaters) to 3.3 mg L –1 at the river mouth. This rate of increase corresponded to a DOC overprinting distance—the longitudinal distance over which DOC concentrations double—of 13 km. Mainstem DOC overprinting distance ranged from 8 km (winter, rainy season) to 21 km (summer, dry season with irrigation), highlighting stronger overprinting during increased hydraulic connectivity. Stronger overprinting also correlated to higher EEM DOC ( p < 0.001). Overprinting distance effectively quantifies river integration of DOM along the terrestrial-aquatic interface, helping to refine bottom-up carbon cycle estimates, inform upscaling of site-specific fluxes, and to track land use and climate influence on river biogeochemistry.

California↗
USGS2020

Deglacierization of a marginal basin and implications for outburst floods, Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska

Suicide Basin is a partly glacierized marginal basin of Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska, that has released glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) annually since 2011. The floods cause inundation and erosion in the Mendenhall Valley, impacting homes and other infrastructure. Here, we utilize in-situ and remote sensing data to assess the recent evolution and current state of Suicide Basin. We focus on the 2018 and 2019 melt seasons, during which we collected most of our data, partly using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). To provide longer-term context, we analyze DEMs collected since 2006 and model glacier surface mass balance over the 2006–2019 period. During the 2018 and 2019 outburst flood events, Suicide Basin released ~30 × 10 6 m 3 of water within approximately 4–5 days. Since lake drainage was partial in both years, these ~30 × 10 6 m 3 represent only a fraction (~60%) of the basin's total storage capacity. In contrast to previous years, subglacial drainage was preceded by supraglacial outflow over the ice dam, which lasted ~1 day in 2018 and 6 days in 2019. Two large calving events occurred in 2018 and 2019, with submerged ice breaking off the main glacier during lake filling, thereby increasing the basin's storage capacity. In 2018, the floating ice in the basin was 36 m thick on average. In 2019, ice thickness was 29 m, suggesting rapid decay of the ice tongue despite increasing ice inflow from Mendenhall Glacier. The ice dam at the basin entrance thinned by more than 5 m a –1 from 2018 to 2019, which is approximately double the rate of the reference period 2006–2018. While ice-dam thinning reduces water storage capacity in the basin, that capacity is increased by declining ice volume in the basin and longitudinal lake expansion, with the latter process challenging to predict. The potential for premature drainage onset (i.e., drainage before the lake's storage capacity is reached), intermittent drainage decelerations, and early drainage termination further complicates prediction of future GLOF events.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Geometric and material variability influences stress states relevant to coastal permafrost bluff failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young’s Modulus, and Poisson’s Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2020

Felsic melt and gas mobilisation during magma solidification: An experimental study at 1.1 kbar

Melt and gas transfer processes are essential to the formation and growth of the Earth’s crust and for sustaining volcanic activity. These processes also play a major role in magma fractionation at shallow depths (<10 km) where magmas stall rheologically and solidify. In this scenario, the conditions of melt and gas mobilization during progressive cooling of crystal mushes down to their solidus remain poorly understood. We present experimental data (at 1.1 kbar) showing how a combination of temperature and crystal content control the ability of melt and gas to escape from cooling and solidifying hydrous silicic magmas with initial crystal volume fractions (Φ) of 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8, and for temperature snapshots of 850, 800, and 750°. Microstructural observations and chemical data show that the amount of extracted melt increases by 70% from 850 to 750° and by 40% from Φ = 0.6 to 0.8 at 750°, due to the formation of interconnected crystal frameworks, gas expansion in constricted pore space, and filter pressing during cooling. As a result, our experiments suggest that melt and gas extraction from cooling mushes increases in proximity to their solidus and can operate efficiently at 0.6 < Φ <0.93. These observations shed light on maximum estimates of the segregation of gas-rich, crystal-poor magmas (0.02 m/year at 850° to 9 m/year at 750°) to form felsic dykes or eruptible systems feeding volcanoes.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2020

Reassessing particulate organic carbon dynamics in the highly disturbed San Francisco Bay Estuary

Environmental research has been shifting toward a new normal in which a primary focus is to capture change that may be accelerating. In this study, we collected particulate samples in the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) in the fall of 2011 through the spring of 2012 in order to assess vascular plant contributions across both time and space and to compare our findings with a similar set of samples from 1990 to 1992. Across the ∼20-year span, we detected (1) decreasing C:N a ratios (averages ± SD of 12.5 ± 2.5 vs. 8.8 ± 1.4, significant t -test with p < 0.0001); (2) distinct shifts in chlorophyll vs. salinity, with higher chlorophyll concentrations shifting toward freshwater; and (3) greater relative proportions of vascular plant carbon that also appears less degraded (as indicated by lignin measurements) shifting from freshwater toward higher salinities. Lignin compositional data (syringyl:vanillyl and cinnamyl:vanillyl) suggest that increased lignin content in the more saline samples could be derived from wetland materials, while a two-endmember mixing model indicates that a significant portion of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the western sites (50–60% as an upper bound, 13–15% as a lower bound) could be wetland-derived. This has potential implications for the lower food web, given recent work that demonstrates selective feeding by copepods on wetland detrital material in the northern SFBE. The latter has ramifications for proposed wetland restoration within the SFBE and Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta system, namely, that restored wetlands could confer important benefits toward the food web. Equally important is to prioritize continued monitoring of particulate organic matter cycling in the SFBE system to make sure that changing conditions are accounted for in any management decision.

California↗
USGS2020

A newly emerging thermal area in Yellowstone

Yellowstone is a large restless caldera that contains many dynamic thermal areas that are the surface expression of the deeper magmatic system. In 2018, using a Landsat 8 nighttime thermal infrared image, we discovered the emergence of a new thermal area located near Tern Lake on the northeast margin of the Sour Creek dome. A high-spatial-resolution airborne visible image from August 2017 revealed a large (~33,000 m2) area of recently fallen trees, mostly devoid of vegetation, with bright soil, similar to other nearby thermal areas. Field observations in August 2019 confirmed that this was a steam-heated acid-sulfate thermal area, with an arc-shaped zone of hydrothermally altered soil and heated ground, with surface temperatures of 60-80 °C, several steaming fumaroles, and boiling temperatures (93 °C) just beneath the surface. Fallen trees in contact with warm ground were being carbonized, yet there were some cooler areas with new trees growing. Observations of stressed or dying vegetation from archived satellite and airborne remote sensing data going back to 1994 indicated that this thermal area started emerging around 2000. It increased in size slowly until around 2005, when the radiative heat output started measurably increasing. From 2005 to 2012 it grew more rapidly; and from 2012 through 2019 the growth rate slowed and the heat output stabilized. We predict that this stabilizing trend will continue in the coming years. The initial formation of this new thermal area was not clearly linked to any distinct seismic or geodetic events, although the period of rapid growth partly coincided with a period of rapid local uplift, possibly suggesting a causative relationship. The identification of this emerging thermal area illustrates the importance of satellite thermal infrared imaging combined with high-spatial-resolution remote sensing data and field observations for mapping, measuring, and monitoring Yellowstone's thermal areas. It is also an example of the dynamics we expect to observe within large caldera systems like Yellowstone, where changes in the size and distribution of thermal areas are normal and do not indicate an impending eruption nor any significant changes in the broader magmatic system.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

A 36-year record of rock avalanches in the Saint Elias Mountains of Alaska, with implications for future hazards

Glacial retreat and mountain-permafrost degradation resulting from rising global temperatures have the potential to impact the frequency and magnitude of landslides in glaciated environments. Several recent events, including the 2015 Taan Fiord rock avalanche, which triggered a tsunami with one of the highest wave runups ever recorded, have called attention to the hazards posed by landslides in regions like southern Alaska. In the Saint Elias Mountains, the presence of weak sedimentary and metamorphic rocks and active uplift resulting from the collision of the Yakutat and North American tectonic plates create landslide-prone conditions. To differentiate between the typical frequency of landsliding resulting from the geologic and tectonic setting of this region, and landslide processes that may be accelerated due to changes in climate, we used Landsat imagery to create an inventory of rock avalanches in a 3700 km2 area of the Saint Elias Mountains. During the period from 1984-2019, we identified 220 rock avalanches with a mean recurrence interval of 60 days. We compared our landslide inventory with a catalog of M ≥ 4 earthquakes to identify potential coseismic events, but only found three possible earthquake-triggered rock avalanches. We observed a distinct temporal cluster of 41 rock avalanches from 2013 through 2016 that correlated with above average air temperatures (including the three warmest years on record in Alaska, 2014-2016); this cluster was similar to a temporal cluster of recent rock avalanches in nearby Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. The majority of rock avalanches initiated from bedrock ridges in probable permafrost zones, suggesting that ice loss due to permafrost degradation, as opposed to glacial thinning, could be a dominant factor contributing to rock-slope failures in the high elevation areas of the Saint Elias Mountains. Although earthquake-triggered landslides have episodically occurred in southern Alaska, evidence from our study suggests that area-normalized rates of non-coseismic rock avalanches were greater during the period from 1964 to 2019, and that the frequency of these events will continue to increase as the climate continues to warm. These findings highlight the need for hazard assessments in Alaska that address changes in landslide patterns related to climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Littoral sediment from rivers: Patterns, rates and processes of river mouth morphodynamics

Rivers provide important sediment inputs to many littoral cells, thereby replenishing sand and gravel of beaches around the world. However, there is limited information about the patterns and processes of littoral-grade sediment transfer from rivers into coastal systems. Here I address these information gaps by examining topographic and bathymetric data of river mouths and constructing sediment budgets to characterize time-dependent patterns of onshore, offshore, and alongshore transport. Two river deltas, which differ in their morphology, were used in this study: the Elwha River, Washington, which builds a mixed sediment Gilbert-style delta, and the Santa Clara River, California, which builds a cross-shore dispersed sand delta from hyperpycnal flows. During and after sediment discharge events, both systems exhibited a similar evolution composed of three phases: (i) submarine delta growth during offshore transport of river sediment, (ii) onshore-dominated transport from the submarine delta to a subaerial river mouth berm, and (iii) longshore-dominated transport away from the river mouth following subaerial berm development. Although stage (ii) occurred within days to weeks for the systems studied and was associated with the greatest rates of net erosion and deposition, onshore transport of sediment from submarine deposit to the beach persisted for years following the river discharge event. These morphodynamics were similar to simple equilibrium profile concepts that were modified with an onshore-dominated cross-shore transport rule. Additionally, both study sites revealed that littoral-grade sediment was initially exported to depths beyond the active littoral cell (i.e., below the depth of closure) during the stage (i). Following several years of reworking by coastal processes, bathymetric surveys suggested that 14 and 46% of the original volume of littoral-grade sediment discharged by the Santa Clara and Elwha Rivers, respectively, continued to be below the depth of closure. Combined, this suggests that integration of river sediment into a littoral cell can be a multi-year process and that the full volume of littoral-grade sediment discharged by small rivers may not be integrated into littoral cells because of sand and gravel “losses” to the continental shelf.

California, Washington↗
USGS2020

Volcanic hazard assessment for an eruption hiatus, or post-eruption unrest context: Modeling continued dome collapse hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano

Effective volcanic hazard management in regions where populations live in close proximity to persistent volcanic activity involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazards, and associated risk. Emphasis until now has been placed on identification and forecasting of the escalation phase of activity, in order to provide adequate warning of what might be to come. However, understanding eruption hiatus and post-eruption unrest hazards, or how to quantify residual hazard after the end of an eruption, is also important and often key to timely post-eruption recovery. Unfortunately, in many cases when the level of activity lessens, the hazards, although reduced, do not necessarily cease altogether. This is due to both the imprecise nature of determination of the “end” of an eruptive phase as well as to the possibility that post-eruption hazardous processes may continue to occur. An example of the latter is continued dome collapse hazard from lava domes which have ceased to grow, or sector collapse of parts of volcanic edifices, including lava dome complexes. We present a new probabilistic model for forecasting pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from lava dome collapse that takes into account the heavy-tailed distribution of the lengths of eruptive phases, the periods of quiescence, and the forecast window of interest. In the hazard analysis, we also consider probabilistic scenario models describing the flow’s volume and initial direction. Further, with the use of statistical emulators, we combine these models with physics-based simulations of PDCs at Soufrière Hills Volcano to produce a series of probabilistic hazard maps for flow inundation over 5, 10, and 20 year periods. The development and application of this assessment approach is the first of its kind for the quantification of periods of diminished volcanic activity. As such, it offers evidence-based guidance for dome collapse hazards that can be used to inform decision-making around provisions of access and reoccupation in areas around volcanoes that are becoming less active over time.

Soufrière Hills Volcano↗
USGS2020

A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism

We report 4 years of temperature profiles collected from May 2014 to May 2018 in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole U1364A in the frontal accretionary prism of the Cascadia subduction zone. The temperature data extend to depths of nearly 300 m below seafloor (mbsf), spanning the gas hydrate stability zone at the location and a clear bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) at ∼230 mbsf. When the hole was drilled in 2010, a pressure-monitoring Advanced CORK (ACORK) observatory was installed, sealed at the bottom by a bridge plug and cement below 302 mbsf. In May 2014, a temperature profile was collected by lowering a probe down the hole from the ROV ROPOS. From July 2016 through May 2018, temperature data were collected during a nearly two-year deployment of a 24-thermistor cable installed to 268 m below seafloor (mbsf). The cable and a seismic-tilt instrument package also deployed in 2016 were connected to the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) NEPTUNE cabled observatory in June of 2017, after which the thermistor temperatures were logged by Ocean Networks Canada at one-minute intervals until failure of the main ethernet switch in the integrated seafloor control unit in May 2018. The thermistor array had been designed with concentrated vertical spacing around the bottom-simulating reflector and two pressure-monitoring screens at 203 and 244 mbsf, with wider thermistor spacing elsewhere to document the geothermal state up to seafloor. The 4 years of data show a generally linear temperature gradient of 0.055°C/m consistent with a heat flux of 61–64 mW/m 2 . The data show no indications of thermal transients. A slight departure from a linear gradient provides an approximate limit of ∼10 −10 m/s for any possible slow upward advection of pore fluids. In-situ temperatures are ∼15.8°C at the BSR position, consistent with methane hydrate stability at that depth and pressure.

Cascadia subduction zone↗
USGS2021

Geochemistry of coastal permafrost and erosion-driven organic matter fluxes to the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, Alaska

Accelerating erosion of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast is increasing inputs of organic matter from land to the Arctic Ocean, and improved estimates of organic matter stocks in eroding coastal permafrost are needed to assess their mobilization rates under contemporary conditions. We collected three permafrost cores (4.5–7.5 m long) along a geomorphic gradient near Drew Point, Alaska, where recent erosion rates average 17.2 m year −1 . Down-core patterns indicate that organic-rich soils and lacustrine sediments (12–45% total organic carbon; TOC) in the active layer and upper permafrost accumulated during the Holocene. Deeper permafrost (below 3 m elevation) mainly consists of Late Pleistocene marine sediments with lower organic matter content (∼1% TOC), lower C:N ratios, and higher δ 13 C values. Radiocarbon-based estimates of organic carbon accumulation rates were 11.3 ± 3.6 g TOC m −2 year −1 during the Holocene and 0.5 ± 0.1 g TOC m −2 year −1 during the Late Pleistocene (12–38 kyr BP). Within relict marine sediments, porewater salinities increased with depth. Elevated salinity near sea level (∼20–37 in thawed samples) inhibited freezing despite year-round temperatures below 0°C. We used organic matter stock estimates from the cores in combination with remote sensing time-series data to estimate carbon fluxes for a 9 km stretch of coastline near Drew Point. Erosional fluxes of TOC averaged 1,369 kg C m −1 year −1 during the 21st century (2002–2018), nearly doubling the average flux of the previous half-century (1955–2002). Our estimate of the 21st century erosional TOC flux year −1 from this 9 km coastline (12,318 metric tons C year −1 ) is similar to the annual TOC flux from the Kuparuk River, which drains a 8,107 km 2 area east of Drew Point and ranks as the third largest river on the North Slope of Alaska. Total nitrogen fluxes via coastal erosion at Drew Point were also quantified, and were similar to those from the Kuparuk River. This study emphasizes that coastal erosion represents a significant pathway for carbon and nitrogen trapped in permafrost to enter modern biogeochemical cycles, where it may fuel food webs and greenhouse gas emissions in the marine environment.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗