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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

Thermal state of permafrost in North America: A contribution to the international polar year

A snapshot of the thermal state of permafrost in northern North America during the International Polar Year (IPY) was developed using ground temperature data collected from 350 boreholes. More than half these were established during IPY to enhance the network in sparsely monitored regions. The measurement sites span a diverse range of ecoclimatic and geological conditions across the continent and are at various elevations within the Cordillera. The ground temperatures within the discontinuous permafrost zone are generally above -3°C, and range down to -15°C in the continuous zone. Ground temperature envelopes vary according to substrate, with shallow depths of zero annual amplitude for peat and mineral soils, and much greater depths for bedrock. New monitoring sites in the mountains of southern and central Yukon suggest that permafrost may be limited in extent. In concert with regional air temperatures, permafrost has generally been warming across North America for the past several decades, as indicated by measurements from the western Arctic since the 1970s and from parts of eastern Canada since the early 1990s. The rates of ground warming have been variable, but are generally greater north of the treeline. Latent heat effects in the southern discontinuous zone dominate the permafrost thermal regime close to 0°C and allow permafrost to persist under a warming climate. Consequently, the spatial diversity of permafrost thermal conditions is decreasing over time.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes↗

Use of isotopically labeled fertilizer to trace nitrogen fertilizer contributions to surface, soil, and ground water

The fate and transport of a single N fertilizer application through plants, soil, runoff, and the unsaturated and saturated zones was determined for four years at a field site under continuous corn (Zea mays L.) management. Claypan soils, which underlie the site, were hypothesized to restrict the movement of agrichemicals from the soil surface to ground water. However, N fertilizer moved rapidly through preferential flow paths in the soil and into the underlying glacial till aquifer. Most N transport occurred during the fall and winter when crops were not available to use excess N. Forty months after application, 33 percent of the fertilizer had been removed by grain harvests, 30 percent had been transpired to the atmosphere, and 33 percent had migrated to ground water. Although runoff volumes were 50 percent greater than infiltration, less than 2 percent of the fertilizer was lost to runoff. Small measured denitrification rates and large measured dissolved oxygen concentrations in ground water favor the long-term stability of NO3-1 in ground water. Successive fertilizer applications, in areas that lack the ability to moderate N concentrations through consumptive N reactions, risk the potential of N-saturated ecosystems.

Journal of Environmental Hydrology↗

Faulting of gas-hydrate-bearing marine sediments - contribution to permeability

Extensive faulting is observed in sediments containing high concentrations of methane hydrate off the southeastern coast of the United States. Faults that break the sea floor show evidence of both extension and shortening; mud diapirs are also present. The zone of recent faulting apparently extends from the ocean floor down to the base of gas-hydrate stability. We infer that the faulting resulted from excess pore pressure in gas trapped beneath the gas hydrate-beating layer and/or weakening and mobilization of sediments in the region just below the gas-hydrate stability zone. In addition to the zone of surface faults, we identified two buried zones of faulting, that may have similar origins. Subsurface faulted zones appear to act as gas traps.

Conference Paper↗

On the contribution of reconstruction labor wages and material prices to demand surge

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon of large-scale natural disasters, most commonly explained by higher repair costs (after a large- versus small-scale disaster) resulting from higher material prices and labor wages. This study tests this explanation by developing quantitative models for the cost change of sets, or "baskets," of repairs to damage caused by Atlantic hurricanes making landfall on the mainland United States. We define six such baskets, representing the total repair cost, and material and labor components, each for a typical residential or commercial property. We collect cost data from the leading provider of these data to insurance claims adjusters in the United States, and we calculate the cost changes from July to January for nine Atlantic hurricane seasons at fifty-two cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The data show that: changes in labor costs drive the changes in total repair costs; cost changes can vary significantly by geographic region and year; and cost changes for the residential basket of repairs are more volatile than the cost changes for the commercial basket. We then propose a series of multilevel regression models to predict the cost changes by considering several combinations of the following explanatory variables: the largest gradient wind speed at a city in a hurricane season; the number of tropical storms in a hurricane season whose center passes within 200 km of a city; and cost changes in the first two quarters of the year. We also allow the coefficients of the regression model to be stochastic, varying across groups defined by region of the Southeastern United States and year. Our best models predict that, for any city on the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts in any hurricane season, the residential total repair cost changes vary from 0.01 to 0.25, depending on the wind speed and number of storms, with an uncertainty of 0.1 (two standard errors of prediction) given the wind speed and number of storms. The commercial total repair cost changes vary from 0.005 to 0.15 with an uncertainty of 0.08. Our models including wind speed, the number of storms affecting a city, and cost changes in the first half of the year explain roughly half of the observed variability in cost changes. Additional explanatory variables that we have not considered may account for the remaining variability. Given these models, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in their predictions. This uncertainty arises from variations between groups defined by region and year, not from variations within a given region and year.

SESM↗

Foreword: Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses of organisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, the congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for examples, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife Internationals and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis of proportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, of a species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans. Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions. PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approached to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic and boreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

2014 National Park visitor spending effects: economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park System covers more than 84 million acres and is comprised of more than 401 sites across the Nation. These lands managed by the National Park Service (NPS) serve as recreational destinations for visitors from across the Nation and around the world. On vacations or on day trips, NPS visitors spend time and money in the gateway communities surrounding NPS sites. Spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway economies. The NPS has been measuring and reporting visitor spending and economic effects for the past 25 years. The 2012 analysis marked a major revision to the NPS visitor spending effects analyses, with the development of the Visitor Spending Effects model (VSE model) which replaced the previous Money Generation Model (see Cullinane Thomas et al. (2014) for a description of how the VSE model differs from the previous model). This report provides updated VSE estimates associated with 2014 NPS visitation. System-wide visitation estimates in 2014 increased by 7% (or 19.2 million visits) compared to 2013 (Ziesler, 2015). Visitation in 2014 rebounded from a 2013 decline that included a 16-day government shutdown and many park closures for repairs after Superstorm Sandy hit the Northeast in late 2012. The re-opening of the Washington Monument, some 21 months after it was rocked by an earthquake and repaired, also added to 2014 visitation numbers. Additionally, several national parks saw record-breaking visitation in 2014, including Joshua Tree, Rocky Mountain, Grand Teton and Glacier national parks. This report begins by presenting an overview of economic effects analyses, followed by details about the data and methods used for this analysis and 2014 model updates. Estimates of NPS visitor spending in 2014 and resulting economic effects at the local, state, regional, and national levels are then presented. The report concludes with a description of current data limitations. Park-level spending and economic effects estimates are included in the appendix. New this year, results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available via the NPS Social Science Program webpage at http://www.nature.nps.gov/socialscience/economics.cfm.

Natural Resource Report↗

Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses oforganisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly migratory nature and ranges that extend into highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, they congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for example, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife International and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis ofproportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, ofa species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans (Donaldson et al. 2000, Brown et aL 2001). Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions (Bart et al. 2002). PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approaches to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic andboreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Book chapter↗