SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2009

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 67 aquifer wells and 7 surface-water sites at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1949 through 2009. The data analyzed included major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, and total organic carbon. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might inform future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. Water-quality trends were determined using (1) the nonparametric Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p -value, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and summary statistics for uncensored data; and (2) the Kaplan-Meier method for calculating summary statistics, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p -value, and Akritas-Theil-Sen slope estimator for robust linear regression for censored data. Statistical analyses for chloride concentrations indicate that groundwater influenced by Big Lost River seepage has decreasing chloride trends or, in some cases, has variable chloride concentration changes that correlate with above-average and below-average periods of recharge. Analyses of trends for chloride in water samples from four sites located along the Big Lost River indicate a decreasing trend or no trend for chloride, and chloride concentrations generally are much lower at these four sites than those in the aquifer. Above-average and below-average periods of recharge also affect concentration trends for sodium, sulfate, nitrate, and a few trace elements in several wells. Analyses of trends for constituents in water from several of the wells that is mostly regionally derived groundwater generally indicate increasing trends for chloride, sodium, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations. These increases are attributed to agricultural or other anthropogenic influences on the aquifer upgradient of the INL. Statistical trends of chemical constituents from several wells near the Naval Reactors Facility may be influenced by wastewater disposal at the facility or by anthropogenic influence from the Little Lost River basin. Groundwater samples from three wells downgradient of the Power Burst Facility area show increasing trends for chloride, nitrate, sodium, and sulfate concentrations. The increases could be caused by wastewater disposal in the Power Burst Facility area. Some groundwater samples in the southwestern part of the INL and southwest of the INL show concentration trends for chloride and sodium that may be influenced by wastewater disposal. Some of the groundwater samples have decreasing trends that could be attributed to the decreasing concentrations in the wastewater from the late 1970s to 2009. The young fraction of groundwater in many of the wells is more than 20 years old, so samples collected in the early 1990s are more representative of groundwater discharged in the 1960s and 1970s, when concentrations in wastewater were much higher. Groundwater sampled in 2009 would be representative of the lower concentrations of chloride and sodium in wastewater discharged in the late 1980s. Analyses of trends for sodium in several groundwater samples from the central and southern part of the eastern Snake River aquifer show increasing trends. In most cases, however, the sodium concentrations are less than background concentrations measured in the aquifer. Many of the wells are open to larger mixed sections of the aquifer, and the increasing trends may indicate that the long history of wastewater disposal in the central part of the INL is increasing sodium concentrations in the groundwater.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Water-quality trends of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, 2005–18

The U.S. Geological Survey and the city of Independence, Missouri, Water Pollution Control Department has studied the water quality and ecological condition of urban streams within Independence since 2005. Selected physical properties, nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), total dissolved solids, and suspended-sediment concentration data for base-flow and stormflow samples were used to document temporal trends in concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations; and annual loads were computed and investigated for selected nutrients, chloride, and suspended sediment. The six study sites included in this report are located on five urban streams: Rock Creek, a tributary in the city that drains to the Missouri River; three tributaries of the Little Blue River within the city (East Fork Little Blue River, Adair Creek, and Spring Branch Creek); and two sites on the main stem of the Little Blue River (one upstream from the city and one downstream from the three tributaries). Many factors such as population, land use, and climate, and combinations of these factors contributed to the significant changes in the concentrations and transport of nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria, and suspended sediment in the urban streams within Independence. The population of Independence and the amount of developed land in the urban watersheds remained unchanged during the 2005–18 study. Differences were noted in precipitation and in streamflow during the study. Annual precipitation and streamflow were separated into two time periods within the study—period 1 (2006–10), having greater annual streamflow and precipitation, and period 2 (2011–18), having about 30 percent lower annual streamflow and less precipitation. Streamflow was an important factor in the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, chloride, and suspended sediment from the urban watersheds. Changes in data collection methodology during the study period and improvements to the city stormwater and wastewater infrastructure also could have contributed to some of the trends. Between 2009 and 2015, more than 35 million dollars of improvements were made to stormwater and wastewater infrastructure within the city. These improvements, such as additional sewage overflow holding tanks, removal of septic tanks, and improved and expanded sanitary sewer lines and storm overflows, also could have affected the decreased nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria trends among the urban streams in the study area. Models were used for analyzing streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations and loads to determine if the water quality changed significantly during the study period. Trends in concentration data at four sites were analyzed using a statistical package called R–QWTREND and trends in load data were analyzed at six sites using a statistical package called Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season-Kalman filter (WRTDS–K); both developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and publicly available for use. Statistically significant trends in flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and loads generally were downward during the study period. The only nutrient compound with a statistically significant upward trend in flow-weighted concentration was dissolved orthophosphate as phosphorus at the Rock Creek site and the upstream site on the Little Blue River. A statistically significant downward trend in annual dissolved ammonia load was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. A significant upward linear trend in annual orthophosphate as phosphorus load was identified on Adair Creek. A statistically significant upward trend in dissolved chloride concentrations was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. Road salt application near the site during the winter could have resulted in higher concentrated runoff during wet weather conditions. Annual chloride loads significantly decreased in Adair Creek and Spring Branch Creek. The mean annual chloride load transported in the drier (2011–18) period 2 was significantly less than during the wetter (2006–10) period 1, indicating that trends in precipitation runoff are an important factor in trends in annual transport of chloride. Statistically significant downward trends in flow-weighted fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli (E. coli) population densities were noted for Rock Creek and the down-stream site on the Little Blue River. However, no trend was identified in E. coli population density at the upstream Little Blue River site. The downward trend in E. coli population density at the downstream site could be a result of decreased streamflow and precipitation over the study period, storage of fecal indicator bacteria in the Little Blue River streambed within the study area, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during travel from upstream to downstream, changes in the sample collection methodology, improvements to the city’s storm-water and wastewater infrastructures, or a combination of these factors. The statistically significant downward trend in suspended-sediment concentration identified at the upstream Little Blue River site could be affected by the decreased streamflow and precipitation during the study period, by changes in sampling methods within the study period, and by the decrease in construction and urban land development upstream from the city. No statistically significant change was indicated in the annual suspended-sediment load transported from Independence to the Little Blue River during the study period. More than one-half the suspended sediment transported in the Little Blue River originated in the watershed upstream from Independence. The Little Blue River and many of its tributaries that drain Independence have been designated as recreational waters classified for whole-body contact class B and secondary contact recreation, and some have been listed as impaired for E. coli by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources from urban runoff and storm sewers. Observations were made among the available E. coli population density data for both Little Blue River sites to further understand water-quality conditions over the study period. Both Little Blue River sites had similar medians and geometric means for the recreational season (April through October) and during the full study period, both of which are greater than the regulatory population density for both recreational classes. The Little Blue River drainage area nearly doubles in size from the upstream to downstream site; therefore, the consistent geometric mean and median of E. coli population densities at the upstream and downstream Little Blue River sites could be primarily due to the larger volume of streamflow creating a dilution effect. Other possible factors could be storage of fecal indicator bacteria in stream bed sediments, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during transport, improvements to the city’s wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, changes to sampling methodology, or a combination of these factors. Specific sources of the E. coli are currently (2019) unknown.

Missouri↗

USGS2001

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 1994-96, with emphasis on water quality in the Irondequoit Creek basin: Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads to Irondequoit Bay

Irondequoit Creek drains 169 square miles in the eastern part of Monroe County. Nutrients transported by Irondequoit Creek to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario have contributed to the eutrophication of the Bay. Sewage-treatment-plant effluent, a major source of nutrients to the creek and its tributaries, was eliminated from the basin in 1979 by diversion to a regional wastewater-treatment facility, but sediment and contaminants from nonpoint sources continue to enter the creek and Irondequoit Bay. This report analyzes data from five surface-water monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin. Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road, and Irondequoit Creek at Empire Boulevard. It is the third in a series of reports that present interpretive analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984. Also included are data from a site on Northrup Creek, which drains a 23.5-square-mile basin west of the Genesee River in western Monroe County, to provide information on surface-water quality in a stream west of the Genesee River and on loads of nutrients delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario, and data from the Genesee River for comparison of historical water-quality conditions with 1994-96 conditions. Water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from Mendon Ponds, also are included. Average annual yields of chemical constituents from atmospheric deposition for 1994-96 were generally similar to those for the previous 10 years (1984-93), except for dissolved sodium, dissolved potassium, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate, which ranged from 42 percent (dissolved sodium) to 275 percent (dissolved potassium) greater than during 1984-93, and dissolved sulfate and ammonia, which were about 30 percent less than in 1984-93. Loads of all nutrients deposited in the Irondequoit Creek basin from atmospheric sources during water years 1994-96 exceeded those removed by Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road—ammonia by 5,600 percent, orthophosphate by 2,500 percent, ammonia + organic nitrogen by 350 percent, total phosphorus by 300 percent and nitrite + nitrate by 140 percent. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmospheric deposition were much less than those transported in streamflow—yields of dissolved chloride from atmospheric sources were only 1.9 percent, and yields of sulfate were only 9.2 percent, of those transported in streamflow at Blossom Road. Concentrations of several chemical constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant trends from the beginning of their period of record through 1996. The constituents that showed the greatest number of statistically significant trends were dissolved chloride, ammonia, and ammonia + organic nitrogen. Dissolved chloride showed an upward trend at Blossom Road, Allen Creek, and Empire Boulevard and a downward trend at Railroad Mills. Ammonia showed downward trends at Allen Creek, Blossom Road and Railroad Mills. Ammonia + organic nitrogen showed a downward trend at Allen Creek, Blossom Road, and Empire Boulevard. Nitrite + nitrate showed a downward trend at Allen Creek, and orthophosphate showed an upward trend at that site. Turbidity and total suspended solids showed a downward trend at Empire Boulevard. Neither total phosphorus nor volatile suspended solids showed statistically significant trends in concentration at any of the Irondequoit basin sites. Northrup Creek showed a downward trend in total suspended solids and ammonia + organic nitrogen, and an upward trend in dissolved chloride. The Genesee River showed a downward trend in ammonia + organic nitrogen and chloride, and an upward trend in orthophosphate. Most constituents for the 1994-96 water years showed lower average yields at Blossom Road than for the 1989-93 water years, but dissolved chloride showed higher yields for the 1994-96 water years at all sites except Blossom Road. Ammonia + organic nitrogen and total phosphorus showed a decrease in yield at all sites after 1993, and nitrite + nitrate showed slightly higher yields for 1994-96 at the upstream, predominantly rural sites, and lower yields at the downstream, more urban sites, than during 1989-93. The trends and changes in surface-water quality after 1993 can be attributed to several factors within the basin, including land-use changes, annual and seasonal variations in streamflow, and year-to-year variations in the application of deicing salts on area roads. Statistical analyses of long-term (9 years or more) streamflow records of three unregulated streams in Monroe County indicate that annual mean flows for water years 1994-96 were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek showed a statistically significant downward trend in monthly mean streamflow over the 1984-96 water years.

New York↗

USGS2004

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 2000-02: Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads in streams

This report, the fifth in a series that presents analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984, interprets data from four surface-water-monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin (Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, and Irondequoit Creek above Blossom Road); and from three sites on tributaries to the Genesee River (Oatka Creek at Garbutt, Honeoye Creek at Honeoye Falls, and Black Creek at Churchville) and from the Genesee River at Charlotte Docks. It also interprets data from a site on Northrup Creek, which provides information on nutrient loads delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario. The report also includes water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from a collection site at Mendon Ponds. Atmospheric Deposition : Average annual precipitation for 2000–02 was 33.11 in., 0.94 in. below normal. Average annual loads of some chemical constituents in atmospheric deposition for 2000–02 differed considerably from those for the previous period of record. Loads of all nutrients except ammonia decreased by amounts ranging from 28 percent (ammonia + organic nitrogen and phosphorus) to 2 percent (nitrite + nitrate), whereas ammonia loads an increased by 8 percent. Loads of dissolved sodium and total zinc in atmospheric deposition increased by 56 percent, and 54, percent respectively, over the previous period of record. Average annual loads of other constituents showed decreases ranging from 41 percent (dissolved magnesium) to 17 percent (dissolved chloride). Loads of all nutrients deposited in the Irondequoit Creek basin from atmospheric sources during 2000–02 greatly exceeded those transported by Irondequoit Creek. The ammonia load deposited in the basin was 165 times the load transported at Blossom Road (the most downstream site); the ammonia + organic nitrogen load was 2.8 times greater, orthophosphate 9.7 times greater, total phosphorus 1.2 times greater, and the nitrite + nitrate load was 1.6 times greater. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmosphoric sources were much less than those transported by streamflow at Blossom Road—chloride was about 1.5 percent and sulfate about 9.1 percent of the amount transported by Irondequoit Creek. Ground water : Ground-water-levels and water quality data were collected from 9 observation wells in Ellison Park in Monroe County. All wells except Mo 2 and Mo 659 are in the flood plain of Irondequoit Creek. Water levels indicate frequent reversals in direction of lateral flow toward or away from Irondequoit Creek, and all wells except Mo2 and Mo 659 respond to water level fluctuations in the Creek. Trend tests on water levels for the period of record indicate a slight upward trend in water levels at all nine wells, two of which (Mo 3 and Mo 667) were statistically significant. Concentrations of ammonia and ammonia + organic nitrogen showed a general decrease for the current period of record. Total phosphorus concentrations showed an increase at four wells and a decrease at four wells. Water quality data showed that the highest median concentrations of nutrients continues to occur in Mo 667 and the highest median concentrations of common ions was at Mo 664. Streamflow : Statistical analysis of long-term (greater than 15 years) streamflow records for unregulated streams in Monroe County indicated that annual mean flows for water years (A water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 of the following year.) 2000–02 generally were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek continued to show a significant downward trend in mean monthly streamflow during the 1984–2002 water years. Chemical Concentration in Streams : Concentrations of several constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant (α = 0.05) trends from the beginning of their period of record through 2002. Three of the four Irondequoit Creek sites (Allen Creek, Blossom Road, and Railroad Mills) showed downward trends in ammonia (4.6 to 12.0 percent per year) and ammonia + organic nitrogen (2.8 to 5.3 percent per year). Allen Creek showed downward trends in nitrite + nitrate and total phosphorus (both 1.2 percent per year), and Irondequoit Creek above Blossom Road showed an upward trend in orthophosphate (1.8 percent per year). Three Irondequoit Creek sites showed upward trends in dissolved chloride: Railroad Mills (4.8 percent per year), Allen Creek, and Blossom Road (both 1.9 percent per year). Allen Creek showed a downward trend in sulfate of 0.98 percent per year, whereas Blossom Road showed a downward trend in suspended solids of 4.0 percent per year. Volatile suspended solids showed an upward trend of 3.2 percent per year at Allen Creek and a downward trend of 2.2 percent per year at Blossom Road. Northrup Creek in western Monroe County, showed significant downward trends in concentrations of volatile suspended solids (2.5 percent per year), total phosphorus (5.3 percent per year), and orthophosphate (9.9 percent per year). The Genesee River at Charlotte Docks showed downward trends in volatile suspended solids (2.1 percent per year) and ammonia + organic nitrogen (4.5 percent per year). Oatka Creek at Garbutt showed an upward trend of 21.4 percent per year in turbidity. Chemical Loads in Streams : Mean annual yields (pounds or tons per square mile) of many constituents at the Irondequoit Creek sites were lower than those in previous reporting periods. Suspended solids and nitrite + nitrate yields were lower at three of the sites, and yields of volatile suspended solids, ammonia, and total phosphorus were lower at two of the sites. East Branch Allen Creek showed lower yields for five of the nine constituents for 2000–02, than for previous reporting periods. The decreased yields at East Branch Allen Creek are likely due to the Jefferson Road stormflow-detention basin and the much lower than normal runoff for the 2000–02 period.

New York↗

USGS2005

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

Water quality in Indiana streams generally improved during the 2000–10 study period, based on trends in selected nutrients, metals, and ions. This study combined water-quality data from the Indiana Fixed Station Monitoring Program (FSMP) with streamflow data from nearby U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. A parametric time-series model, QWTREND, was used to develop streamflow-adjusted constituent concentrations, to adjust for seasonal variance and serial correlation, and to identify trends independent of streamflow-related variability. This study examined 7,345 water samples from 57 FSMP sites for 11 years. Concentration trends were analyzed for 12 constituents—the nutrients nitrate, organic nitrogen, and phosphorus; suspended solids; the metals copper, iron, lead, and zinc; the ions chloride, and sulfate together with hardness as a measure of the calcium carbonate ion; and dissolved solids. Nutrient concentrations in this study generally were too high relative to standards and criteria. The national recommended criteria for the three ecoregions in Indiana were exceeded by more than one-half of the nitrate and most of the phosphorus concentrations. Copper, lead, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and dissolved solids concentrations were in acceptable ranges relative to standards and criteria in more than 97 percent of samples. The two Lake Michigan Basin sites had the highest concentrations and were in a unique statistical group for 10 of the 12 constituents, with concentrations many times higher than the statewide median and higher than the medians of most other basins. The two Ohio River Basin sites had the lowest concentrations and were in a unique statistical group for 6 of the 12 constituents. Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

Indiana↗

USGS2012

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

The Concho River Basin is part of the upper Colorado River Basin in west-central Texas. Monotonic trends in streamflow statistics during various time intervals from 1916-2009 were analyzed to determine whether substantial changes in selected streamflow statistics have occurred within the Concho River Basin. Two types of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data comprise the foundational data for this report: (1) daily mean discharge (daily discharge) and (2) annual instantaneous peak discharge. Trend directions are reported for the following streamflow statistics: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual 1-day minimum discharge, (3) annual 7-day minimum discharge, (4) annual maximum daily discharge, and (5) annual instantaneous peak discharge. The South Concho, Middle Concho, and North Concho Rivers drain the upper part of the Concho River Basin. The North and South Concho Rivers converge in San Angelo, Tex., to form the Concho River. The Concho River flows east from San Angelo to its confluence with the Colorado River east of Paint Rock, Tex. The trend analyses principally focused on application of the nonparametric Kendall's Tau statistical test to detect monotonic trends (dependency) in streamflow with time; in other words, Kendall's Tau is a test of temporal independence of streamflow with time. A positive Tau indicates an upward monotonic streamflow trend; conversely, a negative Tau indicates a downward monotonic streamflow trend. Hence, the trend analysis reported here is limited to direction and not magnitude of streamflow change. Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

Texas↗

USGS2023

Long-term water-quality constituent trends in the Little Arkansas River, south-central Kansas, 1995–2021

The Equus Beds aquifer and Cheney Reservoir are primary sources for the city of Wichita’s current (2023) water supply. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed by the city of Wichita in the early 1990s to meet future water demands using the Little Arkansas River as an artificial aquifer recharge water source during above-base-flow conditions. Little Arkansas River water is removed from the river at an ASR Facility intake structure, treated using National Primary Drinking Water Regulations as a guideline, and is infiltrated into the Equus Beds aquifer through recharge basins or injected into the aquifer through recharge wells for later use. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, completed this study to quantify and characterize Little Arkansas River water-quality data. Data in this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements. Continuous (hourly) physicochemical properties were measured, and discrete water-quality samples were collected from three Little Arkansas River sites located along the easternmost extent of the Equus Beds aquifer during 1995 through 2021 over a range of streamflow conditions. The Little Arkansas River at Highway 50 near Halstead, Kansas, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07143672; hereafter referred to as the “Highway 50 site”) is located upstream from the other two sites, and the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07144100; hereafter referred to as the “Sedgwick site”) is located downstream from the other two sites; these two sites bracket most of the easternmost part of the Equus Beds aquifer. The Little Arkansas River upstream of ASR Facility near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 375350097262800; hereafter referred to as the “Upstream ASR site”) is located between the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites, about 14.7 river miles (mi) downstream from the Highway 50 site, about 1.7 river mi upstream from the Sedgwick site, and immediately upstream from the ASR Facility intake structure. Surrogate models for water-quality constituents of interest (including bromide, dissolved organic carbon, 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino- s -triazine [deethylatrazine], atrazine, and metolachlor) were updated or developed using continuously measured and concomitant discrete data. These surrogate models, along with previously developed regression models, were used to compute concentrations (at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites) and loads (at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites) during the study period. Federal criteria were used to evaluate water quality. Where applicable, water-quality data were compared to Federal national drinking-water regulations. Flow-normalized water-quality constituent trends were evaluated using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and water-quality trends were described using WRTDS bootstrap tests. Continuously computed primary ion concentrations were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. During the study period, the Federal secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids was exceeded 57 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and 38 percent of the time at the Sedgwick site. Computed bromide concentrations were larger at the Highway 50 site and exceeded the city of Wichita treatment threshold about 70, 21, and 19 percent of the time at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites, respectively. Chloride concentrations exceeded the Federal SMCL about 16 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and did not exceed the SMCL at the Sedgwick site. Continuous arsenic concentrations exceeded the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) 9 to 15 percent of the time at the Sedgwick and Highway 50 sites, respectively, during the study. Atrazine concentrations exceeded the Federal MCL 10 percent of the time at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites and 14 percent of the time at the Upstream ASR site during the study; computed glyphosate concentrations at the Sedgwick site never exceeded the MCL during the study. Little Arkansas River flow-normalized primary ion concentrations during 1995 through 2021 generally had downward trends and decreases were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. Dissolved solids and chloride concentrations decreased at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Bromide had no trend at the Highway 50 site and a downward trend at the Sedgwick site. Nitrate plus nitrite and total phosphorus concentrations had upward trends at the Highway 50 site but downward trends at the Sedgwick site, whereas total organic carbon had upward trends at both sites. Nitrate plus nitrite, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon fluxes had upward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations had an upward trend at the Highway 50 site and had no trend at the Sedgwick site. Arsenic concentrations had downward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. About one-quarter to one-half of the Little Arkansas River loads, including nutrients and sediment, were transported during 1 percent of the time during the study. Because streamflows are highly sensitive to climatic variation and an increase of extreme precipitation events in the Great Plains is expected, similar disproportionately large pollutant loading events may increase into the future. Continuous measurement of physicochemical properties in near-real time allowed characterization of Little Arkansas River surface water during conditions and time scales that would not have been possible otherwise and served as a complement to discrete water-quality sampling. Continuation of this water-quality monitoring will provide data to characterize changing conditions in the Little Arkansas River and possibly identify new and changing trends. Information in this report allows the city of Wichita to make informed municipal water-supply decisions using past and present water-quality conditions and trends in the watershed.

Kansas↗

USGS2024

Water-quality trends in the Kansas River, Kansas, since enactment of the Clean Water Act, 1972–2020

The Clean Water Act was passed by Congress in 1972 to regulate pollution within the waters of the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), the Kansas Water Office, the Nature Conservancy, the City of Lawrence, the City of Manhattan, the City of Olathe, the City of Topeka, WaterOne, and Evergy, compiled and analyzed historical streamflow and water-quality data collected by USGS and KDHE to characterize trends in water-quality constituents of interest because of their relation to water supply, drinking-water treatment, and sediment and nutrient transport, among others (total dissolved solids, chloride, ammonia, dissolved inorganic nitrogen [ammonia and nitrate plus nitrite], total nitrogen, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, total suspended solids, and fecal coliform bacteria) during mean- and low-flow conditions in the Kansas River since the passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972 through 2020. Trends in water-quality concentrations, or densities, and loads were analyzed using the Exploration and Graphics for RivER Trends R package and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model at upstream (Kansas River at Wamego, Kansas; USGS station 06887500) and downstream (Kansas River at De Soto, Kansas; USGS station 06892350) locations along the Kansas River using streamflow and water-quality data collected by the USGS and KDHE during 1972 through 2020. The Exploration and Graphics for RivER Trends Confidence Intervals R package and WRTDS bootstrap test estimated direction, uncertainty, and likelihood of trends in concentration and loads for each water-quality constituent of interest. Downward trends in concentration and load were observed for 5 of the 9 water-quality constituents at both sites during mean-flow conditions during the study period. During low-flow conditions, 7 of the 9 constituents exhibited downward trends, possibly reflecting reductions in point-source contributions to the Kansas River. Downward trends in ammonia, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and total nitrogen during mean- and low-flow conditions were observed at both Kansas River sites, which were similar to patterns observed nationally. Upward trends were generally observed for orthophosphate and total phosphorus, which were similar to patterns observed at sites in the Mississippi River Basin. Downward trends, or no trend, were observed for chloride. Upward and downward trends were observed for total dissolved solids. Downward trends in total suspended solids and fecal coliform bacteria were observed at both sites, which were also similar to patterns observed nationally. The long-term trend analyses in this report are an essential step to understanding how water-quality conditions have changed in the Kansas River since the passage of the Clean Water Act.

Kansas↗

USGS1997

Trends in nutrient concentration and load for streams in the Mississippi River Basin, 1974-94

Trends in nutrient concentration and load are computed for 40 stations on 24 streams in the Mississippi River Basin. The drainage area of the Mississippi Basin covers about 42 percent of the conterminous United States, and the Mississippi River discharges about 420 billion gallons per day of freshwater to the Gulf of Mexico. The period for which trends are analyzed varies for each station but generally comprises water years 1974–94. Stations included in this analysis are part of the National Stream Quality Accounting Network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. LOWESS (LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoothing) smooth lines superimposed on graphs of flow-adjusted residuals of concentration versus time and load versus time indicate short-term trends for each station. Kendall-Theil robust lines superimposed on the same graphs indicate long-term trends. Long-term trends were evaluated using the slope of the Kendall-Theil robust line and Kendall’s tau. Annual loads are estimated with regression analysis and corrected for log-transformation bias with the MVUE (Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator). Trends in annual streamflow are presented to aid in the interpretation of nutrient trends. Statistically significant long-term increases in flow-adjusted residual concentrations of total nitrogen were detected at 14 stations, decreases were detected at 6 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 20 stations. Statistically significant long-term increases in total nitrogen load were detected at 5 stations, decreases were detected at 4 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 31 stations. Statistically significant long-term increases in flow-adjusted residual concentrations of total phosphorus were detected at 2 stations, decreases were detected at 25 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 13 stations. Statistically significant long-term increases in total phosphorus load were detected at 1 station, decreases were detected at 13 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 26 stations. The mean annual yields were computed from the estimated mean annual loads. Mean annual nitrogen yields are largest for three watersheds in the upper Mississippi Basin; estimated yield of each is greater than 5.0 tons per square mile. Nine stations in the Ohio River Basin have estimated mean annual nitrogen yields greater than 2.0 tons per square mile. Estimated mean annual phosphorus yield is greater than 0.250 ton per square mile at 7 stations, 5 in the Ohio Basin and 2 in the upper Mississippi Basin. Statistically significant trends in annual streamflow were detected at seven stations. Annual streamflow influences trends in load, even when the streamflow trends are not statistically significant.

Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS1987

Trend analysis of monthly sulfur dioxide emissions in the conterminous United States, 1975-1984

Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease though the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. In addition, five regions of coherent sulfur dioxide emissions behavior are defined on the basis of seasonal occurrence of maximum and minimum emission loadings. A winter-summer, latitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions maxima, whereas an equinox-summer, longitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions minima.Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease through the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. Additional study results are discussed.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2016

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year − 1 ) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year − 1 , not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors

Aim Assessing long‐term shifts in faunal assemblages is important to understand the consequences of ongoing global environmental change. One approach to assess drivers of assemblage changes is to identify the traits associated with synchronous shifts in count trends among species. Our research identified traits influencing trends in 73 years of count data on migrating raptors recorded in the north‐eastern USA. Location Pennsylvania, USA. Time period 1946–2018. Major taxa studied Birds of prey/raptors. Methods Migrating raptors were counted during autumn, following a standardized protocol. We used a hierarchical breakpoint model to identify when count trends shifted and to assess the role of traits in driving these trends before and after the breakpoint. Specifically, we quantified the probability of the direction (PD) of an effect of body mass, habitat or dietary specialization, migratory behaviour and susceptibility to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on count trends. Results We documented an assemblage‐wide mean shift in count trends of migrating raptors in 1974. In general, species that exhibited negative count trends before the breakpoint exhibited positive count trends afterwards. We found that traits associated with resource use (diet and habitat specialization) had high probabilities of affecting count trends, pre‐ and post‐breakpoint (> 90%). Moreover, the direction of their effects differed during both periods. Unexpectedly, other traits we evaluated, including DDT susceptibility, had relatively weaker associations with count trends. Main conclusions Trait‐based frameworks have promise for testing generalized assumptions about drivers of population trajectories. Historically, DDT was considered a key driver of changes in raptor population trends. However, our analysis suggests that other factors were also relevant. Moreover, the positive association between count trends and generalist behaviour depended on the temporal context. This result has implications for other settings where demographic trends can be linked to traits and help to identify drivers of biodiversity change.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2007

Streamflow trends in Wisconsin's driftless area

Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

USGS2024

Trends in plant cover derived from vegetation plot data using ordinal zero-augmented beta regression

Questions Plant cover values in vegetation plot data are bounded between 0 and 1, and cover is typically recorded in discrete classes with non-equal intervals. Consequently, cover data are skewed and heteroskedastic, which hampers the application of conventional regression methods. Recently developed ordinal beta regression models consider these statistical difficulties. Our primary question is whether we can detect species trends in vegetation plot time series data with this modelling approach. A second question is whether trends in cover have additional value compared to trends in occurrence, which are easier to assess for practitioners. Location The Netherlands, Western Europe. Methods We used vegetation plot data collected from 10,000 fixed plots which were surveyed once every four years during 1999–2022. We used the ordinal zero-augmented beta regression (OZAB) model, a hierarchical model consisting of a logistic regression for presence and an ordinal beta regression for cover. We adapted the OZAB model for longitudinal data and produced estimates of cover and occurrence for each four-year period. Thereafter we assessed trends in cover and in occurrence across all periods. Results We found evidence of a trend in cover in 318 out of the 721 species (44%) with sufficient data. Most species showed similar directional trends in occurrence and percent cover. No trend in occurrence was detected for 64 species that had evidence of a trend in cover. Declining species had stronger relative changes in cover than in occurrence. Conclusions Our model enables researchers to detect trends in cover using longitudinal vegetation plot data. Cover trends often corroborated trends in occurrence, but we also regularly found trends in cover even in the absence of evidence for trends in occurrence. Our approach thus contributes to a more complete picture of (changes in) vegetation composition based on large monitoring data sets.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS1990

Genetic implications of regional and temporal trends in ore fluid geochemistry of Mississippi Valley-type deposits in the Ozark region

Fluids extracted from aqueous fluid inclusions in epigenetic gangue and ore minerals record the migration of huge volumes of highly saline fluids throughout the stratigraphic section of the Ozark region. The extracted fluids share many similarities regionally, but there are significant temporal differences which define two geochemically distinct end-member ore-forming fluids that we refer to as the Viburnum Trend main stage or Viburnum Trend type and the Tri-State type.Viburnum Trend-type fluids are enriched in potassium and are associated only with deposits close to the basal Lamotte Sandstone. The main-stage octahedral galena ore of the Viburnum Trend and much of the Old Lead Belt ore is thought to be derived from this type of ore fluid. Galena deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids contains less radiogenic lead than galena deposited by Tri-State-type fluids. Sulfides deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids also contain isotopically heavier sulfur and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, nickel, and silver.Tri-State-type fluids have a low potassium content when compared with Viburnum Trend-type fluids and are characteristic of deposits where ore-forming fluids migrated through large volumes of carbonate rock. These fluids are thought to have formed the ore deposits of the Tri-State, Northern Arkansas, and Central Missouri districts, the cubic galena-stage ore of the Viburnum Trend, and the many trace occurrences of sphalerite throughout the Ozark region. Galena deposited by Tri-State-type fluids has more radiogenic lead and the sulfides have isotopically lighter sulfur than sulfides deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids. A systematic south to north increase of potassium in the Tri-State-type fluids suggests that they migrated from a southerly source such as the Arkoma basin.Possible explanations for the origins of these two end-member fluids include: (1) a single parent brine evolved into two distinct fluids due to reactions with geochemically distinct aquifers during migration, (2) the two distinct fluids reflect normal fluid evolution within a single source basin of a bittern and of later halite dissolution, and (3) the Viburnum Trend and Tri-State-type brines migrated to southeast Missouri from two different source basins. Our data does not preclude any of these possibilities; however, the geochemical similarity of the Viburnum Trend end-member fluid to a bittern may be accounted for by water-rock modifications of the brine during migration. Other evidence strongly supports a southerly source for the ore-forming brines thus limiting possible sources for the Viburnum Trend-type fluid to the Arkoma and/or Black Warrior basins of the Ouachita foreland trough. Viburnum Trend-type fluid flow was probably funneled northward through basal sandstones within the Reelfoot rift and water-rock modifications occurring there may have resulted in its unique geochemistry.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2014

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

British Columbia;Oregon;Washington↗