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Review of wastewater problems and wastewater-management planning in the San Francisco Bay region, California

The San Francisco Bay region has suffered adverse environmental effects related to the discharge of municipal-, industrial-, and agricultural- wastewater and storm-water runoff. Specific pollutional properties of theses discharges are not well understood in all cases although the toxic materials and aquatic-plant nutrients (biostimulants) found in municipal and industrial waterwater are considered to be a major cause of regional water-quality problems. Other water-quality problems in the region are commonly attributed to pesticides found in agricultural wastewater and potentially pathogenic bacteria in municipal-wastewater discharges and in storm-water runoff. The geographical distribution and magnitude of wastewater discharges in the bay region, particularly those from municipalities and industries, is largely a function of population, economic growth, and urban development. As might be expected, the total volume of wastewater has increased in a trend paralleling this growth and development. More significant, perhaps, is the fact that the total volume parameters such as BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), biostimulant concentrations, and toxicity, has increased despite large expenditures on new and improved municipal- and industrial-wastewater-treatment plants. Also, pollutant loadings from other major source, such as agriculture and storm-water runoff, have increased. At the time of writing (1972), many Federal, State, regional, and local agencies are engaged in a comprehensive wastewater-management-planning effort for the entire bay region. Initial objectives of this planning effort are: (1) the consolidation and coordination of loosely integrated wastewater-management facilities and (2) the elimination of wastewater discharges to ecologically sensitive areas, such as fresh-water streams and shallow extremities of San Francisco Bay. There has been some investigation of potential long-range wastewater-management alternatives based upon disposal in deep water in the bay, in the Pacific Ocean, or on land. Also, wastewater-reclamation and water-reuse concepts seem to be growing in favor with the public and should become and important part of future wastewater-management plans. Because most wastewater-reclamation and water-reuse systems would involve the use of land (that is agricultural irrigation, ground-water recharge, recreational reservoirs) local and regional lang-use planners can ass much to wastewater-management planning by identifying local and subregional waterwater-reclamation and water-reuse possibilities within their jurisdictions and integrating them with future land-use plans. The timely participation of planner is essential because Federal and State planning and funding deadlines for a regional wastewater-management system become effective in July 1973 and 1974, respectively.

California

Evaluation of the Bushy Park Reservoir three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model, South Carolina, 2012–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in southeastern South Carolina. The reservoir, located under a semi-tropical climate, is the principal water supply for the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there was an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir in 2022, water-quality concerns are present over taste-and-odor and saltwater-intrusion issues. From 2013 to 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Charleston Water System, engaged in a multi-year study of the hydrology and hydrodynamics of Bushy Park Reservoir to better understand factors affecting water-quality conditions in the reservoir. As part of this study, Charleston Water System worked with Tetra Tech, Inc., a consulting and engineering firm, to develop a Bushy Park Reservoir hydrodynamic and water-quality modeling framework, built upon earlier efforts by both Tetra Tech and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. At the completion of the new modeling framework, the USGS was requested to evaluate the calibrated hydrodynamic and water-quality model. The Bushy Park Reservoir Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model was calibrated for the time period from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2015. The general modeling approach for the newly revised modeling framework, as briefly detailed in this report, was developed with EFDC. The EFDC is a grid-based modeling package that can simulate three-dimensional flow, transport, and water quality in surface-water systems. This report evaluated the capacity of Tetra Tech’s Bushy Park EFDC model to simulate water discharge, water circulation, surface elevations, temperature, salinity, and other water-quality parameters. The USGS model review focused specifically on the following criteria: (1) determine if the model, with additional effort, could be developed into an adequate planning tool for Bushy Park Reservoir; (2) assess the capacity of the model to specifically address water-quality issues in the reservoir related to taste-and-odor and saltwater intrusions; and, (3) evaluate three preliminary water-management scenarios related to reduced water withdrawals in the reservoir and the effect on saltwater intrusion. Overall, the model was able to simulate discharge, flow velocity, and water-surface elevations with generally good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Specifically, the model was able to demonstrate good agreement for discharge at two USGS continuous discharge locations (USGS station 02172002; USGS station 02172040), with Wilmott index of agreements of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. A total of seven USGS streamgages, located on the West Branch of the Cooper River, Durham Canal, and the Cooper River, were available for water-surface elevations, with index of agreements ranging from 0.74 to 0.99. However, model-simulated water-surface elevation ranges were appreciably high (compared to measured ranges) for two locations near Pinopolis Dam, farthest upstream on the West Branch of the Cooper River. This result may indicate that too much simulated tidal energy propagated through the model domain. For water temperature, 16 calibration stations were available for at least part of the 4-year simulation. The index of agreement range for temperature comparisons was from 0.95 to 1.00, indicating excellent agreement between the measured and simulated results. One of the primary future applications for the Bushy Park Reservoir EFDC model is to determine the extent of saltwater intrusions. A wide range in the salinity prediction quality was simulated with the model. The prediction quality ranged from an index of agreement of 0.15 at Cooper River approximately 2.75 miles southeast of the Tee, South Carolina, to 0.92 at West Branch Cooper River near Moncks Corner, South Carolina. Although the model did not accurately simulate some of the larger salinity deviations resulting during individual hydrologic events, the seasonal salinity trends were adequately simulated with the model during the study period (2012–15). Therefore, it may be difficult to simulate extreme hydrologic events, such as during large storms, where high salinity water is exchanged with Bushy Park Reservoir. There was agreement in model simulation with the measured data either on the quantitative index of agreement values or qualitative agreement in the seasonal salinity data trends. For water quality, the index of agreement values were generally low for total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate. Although general trends were adequately simulated at specific stations, particularly for Bushy Park Reservoir, the model-simulated fit was low across all the constituents described above with index of agreements usually below 0.50. A limitation for simulating nutrient concentrations across the model domain was the lack of characterization for the constituents directly entering Bushy Park Reservoir, or the lack of data directly attributed to the boundary condition (for example, the Cooper River). The other two calibrated water-quality constituents (besides the nutrients mentioned above) were dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a . Dissolved oxygen varied from index of agreement values from 0.58 to 0.94 for 11 stations, generally indicating agreement with the available measured data. Chlorophyll a , calibrated for seven stations, had a wider range from 0.11 to 0.74 for the index of agreement. With the current modeling framework, taste-and-odor events, related to cyanobacterial blooms, cannot be directly simulated. However, indirect estimates of cyanobacteria concentrations may be obtained by using the chlorophyll a model outputs, which represent total phytoplankton biomass, and the phytoplankton biovolume data by group (diatoms, green algae, cyanobacteria and others) collected from 2012 to 2015. For the Bushy Park Reservoir modeling framework to be used directly for taste-and-odor issues, cyanobacteria must be simulated and calibrated based on observations of cyanobacteria biomass concentrations. In addition to the cyanobacteria sampling conducted within the reservoir between 2012 and 2015, the new model calibration would also require new algae biomass data-collection efforts to characterize the external sources of cyanobacteria entering the Bushy Park Reservoir from tributaries, as well as the internal cycling, production, and decay of cyanobacteria in the hydrologic system. Further improvements to the EFDC model would include expanding the collection of boundary condition datasets, such as water-quality monitoring to determine improved nutrient loads into the model domain. Along with improved water-quality monitoring for the major boundary conditions, continuous discharge, for both Foster Creek and the Back River, would further constrain the flow balance and the loads into Bushy Park Reservoir. In addition to better boundary-condition characterization, it is important to better characterize possible shortcomings specifically to the model domain, such as the grid resolution, bathymetry, and numerical hydrodynamic errors. Further consideration of the model may involve a sensitivity analysis to determine if errors in the simulation outputs, such as discharge, water-surface elevations, and salinity, were more likely caused by poor boundary condition characterization or, specifically, the model setup. Three model scenarios were run with the revised Bushy Park Reservoir model: (1) reduced withdrawals from one of the large intake-discharge locations for Bushy Park Reservoir, the Williams Station; (2) elevated (above background levels) ocean water level causing saltwater intrusion from the ocean through Durham Canal into Bushy Park Reservoir; and (3) overtopping of the Back River Dam at the southernmost end of Bushy Park Reservoir. For the reduced withdrawals scenarios, the largest shift in flow resulted near the Williams Station intake, with the next largest flow change at the southern end of Bushy Park Reservoir, and a net increase in flow out of the Bushy Park Reservoir to the Cooper River by way of the Durham Canal. The effect resulting from scenario 3 on water quality and salinity was small, with larger increases for dissolved oxygen than other constituents at several monitoring stations. For the two scenarios related to saltwater intrusion (including dam overtopping), the changes in salinity generally were found to dissipate in the following 2 weeks and generally back to baseline salinity conditions within 3 months. This result did vary depending on the severity of the storm or length of the dam overtopping event.

South Carolina

Cougar dispersal and natal homing in a desert environment

We present a review of cougar dispersal literature and the first evidence of natural (i.e., unmanipulated) homing behavior by a dispersing male cougar (Puma concolor) that sustained severe injuries crossing the northern Mojave Desert. Based on Global Positioning System and ground tracking data, the male traveled a total distance of 981.1 km at 5.03 km/d, including 170.31 km from the Desert National Wildlife Refuge to the northwestern Grand Canyon, where he sustained severe injuries. The interkill interval increased from 7.1 ± 2.7 d while he was in his natal range to 17.5 ± 4.9 d during dispersal. While homing, the male appeared to consume only reptiles until he died, 33.7 km from his capture site. In desert environments where prey availability is low, homing behavior may be an important strategy for dispersing cougars, providing a mechanism for persistence when the best quality habitats they encounter are already occupied by adult residents. Therefore, managing for habitat connectivity can ensure successful homing as well as dispersal on a greater scale than has been previously suggested. Elucidating the mechanisms that trigger homing during dispersal may provide critical insight into animal movements often overlooked as mundane behavior.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah

An evaluation and review of water-use estimates and flow data for the Lower Klamath and Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuges, Oregon and California

The Lower Klamath and Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuges, located in the upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California, encompass approximately 46,700 and 39,100 acres, respectively. Demand for water in the semiarid upper Klamath Basin has increased in recent years, resulting in the need to better quantify water availability and use in the refuges. This report presents an evaluation of water-use estimates for both refuges derived on the basis of two approaches. One approach used evaporation and evapotranspiration estimates and the other used measured inflow and outflow data. The quality of the inflow and outflow data also was assessed. Annual water use in the refuges, using evapotranspiration estimates, was computed with the use of different rates for each of four land-use categories. Annual water-use rates for grain fields, seasonal wetlands, permanently flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation, and open-water bodies were 2.5, 2.9, 2.63, and 4.07 feet per year, respectively. Total water use was estimated as the sum of the products of each rate and the number of acres in its associated land-use category. Mean annual (2003-2005) water use for the Lower Klamath and Tule Lake refuges was approximately 124,000 and 95,900 acre-feet, respectively. To estimate water deliveries needed for each refuge, first, annual precipitation for 2003-2005 was subtracted from the annual water use for those years. Then, an adjusted total was obtained by adding 20 percent to the difference to account for salinity flushing. Resulting estimated mean annual adjusted needed water deliveries in 2003-2005 for the Lower Klamath and Tule Lake refuges were 107,000 and 82,800 acre-feet, respectively. Mean annual net inflow to the refuges for 2003-2005 was computed by subtracting estimated and measured surface-water outflows from inflows. Mean annual net inflow during the 3-year period for the Lower Klamath refuge, calculated for a subsection of the refuge, was approximately 73,700 acre-feet. The adjusted needed water delivery for this section of the refuge, calculated from evapotranspiration estimates, was approximately 77,600 acre-feet. For the Tule Lake refuge, mean annual net inflow during the 3-year period was approximately 76,100 acre-feet, which is comparable to the estimated annual needed water delivery for the refuge of 82,800 acre-feet. For 1962-2005, mean annual net inflow to the Lower Klamath refuge was approximately 49,800 acre-feet, about 23,900 acre-feet less than for 2003-2005. Although mean April-September net inflows for 1962-2005 and 2003-2005 have remained fairly constant, annual net inflow has increased for October-March, which accounts for the difference. Consistently higher autumn and winter flow deliveries since the mid-1980s reflect a significant change in refuge management. More sections of the refuge are currently managed as seasonal wetlands than were in the 1960s and 1970s. Flow records for the Ady Canal at State Line Road, Klamath Straits Drain at State Line Road, and D Pumping Plant were evaluated for their data quality. On the basis of USGS flow-record criteria, all three flow records were rated as 'poor.' By definition, 95 percent of the daily flows in a record having this rating could be in error by more than 15 percent.

Scientific Investigations Report

Characterization and data-gap analysis of surface-water quality data in the Piceance study area, western Colorado, 1959–2009

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Federal, State, county, and industry partners, developed a Web-accessible common data repository to provide access to historical and current (as of August 2009) water-quality information (available on the Internet at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/cwqdr/Piceance/index.shtml ). Surface-water-quality data from public and private sources were compiled for the period 1931 to 2009 and loaded into the common data repository for the Piceance Basin. A subset of surface-water-quality data for 1959 to 2009 from the repository were compiled, reviewed, and checked for quality assurance for this report. This report contains data summaries, comparisons to water-quality standards, trend analyses, a generalized spatial analysis, and a data-gap analysis for select water-quality properties and constituents. Summary statistics and a comparison to standards were provided for 347 sites for 33 constituents including field properties, nutrients, major ions, trace elements, suspended sediment, Escherichia coli, and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene). When sufficient data were available, trends over time were analyzed and loads were calculated for those sites where there were also continuous streamflow data. The majority of sites had information on field properties. Water temperature data was available for 316 sites where data were collected between 1959 and 2009. The only trend that was detected in temperature was an upward trend at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado. There were 326 values out of a total of 32,006 values in the study area that exceeded the aquatic-life standard for daily maximum water temperature. For the entire study area, 196 sites had dissolved-oxygen data collected between 1970 and 2009, and median dissolved-oxygen concentrations ranged from 6.8 to11.2 milligrams per liter (mg/L). There were 185 concentrations that exceeded the dissolved oxygen aquatic-life standard out of a total of 11,248 values. The pH data were available for 276 sites, and median pH values ranged from 7.5 to 9.0. There were 241 values that exceeded the high pH standard and 13 values that were less than the low pH standard of the 16,790 values in the study area. Nutrients within the study area were not well represented in each basin and were often not being sampled currently. For the entire study area, 62 sites had nitrate data collected between 1958 and 2009, and median nitrate concentrations ranged from less than detection to 3.72 mg/L as nitrogen. The maximum contaminant level for domestic water supply for nitrate is 10 mg/L and was exceeded once in 3,736 samples. Total phosphorus was collected at 113 sites between 1974 and 2009, and median total phosphorus concentrations ranged from less than detection to 5.04 mg/L. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendation for phosphorus is less than 0.1 mg/L, and 1,469 of 4,842 samples exceeded this recommended standard. An upward trend in both nitrate and total phosphorus was detected in the White River above Coal Creek near Meeker, Colo. Standards for major ions exist only for chloride and sulfate. For the entire study area, 118 sites had both chloride and sulfate concentration data collected between 1958 and 2009. Median chloride concentrations ranged from 0.085 mg/L to 280 mg/L. Median sulfate concentrations ranged from 4.57 mg/L to 15,000 mg/L. Both chloride and sulfate domestic water-supply standards are 250 mg/L. There were 120 chloride concentrations and 1,111 sulfate concentration samples that exceeded these standards. A downward trend in dissolved solids was detected at the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah state border and could be a result of salinity control work near Grand Junction, Colo. Trace elements were relatively well represented both temporally and spatially in the study area though the number of trace element samples per site was not typically enough to compute trends or loads except for selenium. There were 127 sites that had dissolved iron concentration data collected between 1961 and 2009, and median iron concentrations ranged from less than detection to 1,100 micrograms per liter (µg/L). The 30-day drinking-water standard for iron is 300 µg/L, and 203 samples exceeded the standard. Selenium was the best represented trace element with selenium concentration data collected at 197 sites between 1973 and 2009, and median selenium concentrations range from less than detection to 181 µg/L. The chronic standard of 4.6 µg/L for selenium concentrations was exceeded in 899 samples, and the acute aquatic-life standard of 18.4 µg/ for selenium was exceeded in 629 samples. High concentrations of selenium are of concern in the Lower Gunnison River Basin because of the combination of geologic formations and land use. There were significant downward trends in selenium at both main-stem sites on the Gunnison River at Delta, Colo., and the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. High selenium concentrations correlate with high salinity concentrations; thus, when salinity control efforts are conducted in selenium-rich areas in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, both salinity and selenium have the potential to decrease. Spatial, temporal, and analytical data gaps were identified in the study area. The spatial coverage of sampling sites could be expanded in the White River Basin by adding more tributary sites. No water-quality data exist for tributary streams in the area north of Rangely, Colo., where extensive energy development has occurred in a complex geologic setting. Douglas Creek has a drainage area of 425 square miles and has limited historic water-quality and water-quantity data. Limited data were available for field properties, major ions, nutrients, and trace elements on the main stem of the Colorado River between Glenwood Springs and Cameo, Colo. Nutrient data were minimally collected upstream from Colorado River at the Colorado-Utah state border and on the Gunnison River (major tributary in the reach). Approximately 30 percent of the samples for total phosphorus in the Lower Gunnison River Basin exceeded the recommended standard, yet there were insufficient data to do trends analysis in the Lower Gunnison River Basin except at the Gunnison near Grand Junction site. There is limited trace element data except for selenium in the Lower Gunnison River Basin. Additional sampling is necessary to understand the occurrence, concentrations, and loads of these constituents.

Colorado

Rating stability, and frequency and magnitude of shifts, for streamgages in Virginia through water year 2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, has quantified several measures of rating stability and the frequency and magnitude of changes to ratings through time for 174 real-time continuous streamgages active in Virginia as of September 30, 2013. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted through all available flow measurements for all the streamgages in Virginia’s real-time network as of September 30, 2013, with at least 20 flow measurements with positive flow values. For each measurement with a positive flow value, residuals from the GAM curve were calculated. Time series of these residuals were used to identify major changes to the control (the stream feature or features which control the relation between stage and flow); the measurements in the periods of equilibrium between major changes were assigned to rating families. Of the 127 rating families that were identified as being distinct at sites, documented explanations were found for 67 of them. The most common reasons for the control to change enough to warrant a new rating family are moving the streamgage (28 times), floods (26 times), and construction activities (13 times). Provisional flow data from any streamgage that has recently experienced a major flood, regardless of historical stability, are more uncertain than usual until post-flood evidence emerges that the rating is stable, or if the rating has changed, until it is known to be well defined. A direct comparison between provisional flow data (those data originally displayed on the web in near-real time) and flow data approved for publication following subsequent flow measurements and review could not be made because provisional flow data have not been archived. As a substitute, alternative flow (AltFlow) tables were constructed for periods with complete records of shifts and ratings. Alternate flows consist of $Q$ same , the flow value from the shifted rating table used to compute the daily flow value at the time of the most recent flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value, and $Q$ prev , the flow value from the shifted rating table in effect at the time of the previous flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value. Several metrics that summarize AltFlow tables were computed and evaluated; particular importance was given to how well the metrics agreed with the descriptive stability class developed from interviews with hydrographers. Of these stability metrics, at least four were determined to be meaningful and to represent different aspects of control stability that might be relevant to water managers: total root mean square error between log-transformed $Q$ prev and $Q$ same , percentage of days when the difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same is greater than (>) $Q$ same , the sum of absolute AltFlow error divided by total flow, and percentage of days with zero difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same . Three other meaningful metrics of control stability or provisional flow-data quality were computed: R 2 (coefficient of determination) of GAMs from the flow measurements, percentage of total estimated days, and percentage of estimated days in the winter. Correlations among metrics varied, indicating they responded to different aspects of control stability. Relations among the various stability metrics and quantitative basin and site characteristics were weak. Although quantitative relations between stability metrics and basin and site characteristics were all weak, some common patterns still emerged. Controls and ratings on large streams [>500-square mile (mi 2 ) drainage area] and at high elevations (>1,000 feet) were more likely to be stable than controls and ratings on small streams (less than (<) 100-mi 2 drainage area) and at low elevations (<500 feet). There were exceptions to both generalizations, and streamgages that were intermediate in both characteristics varied widely in stability. Typical timing of record computation changed during water years 1991–2013. From 1991 through 2001, the median number of days between the start date of the shift and the date it was created fluctuated between about 240 and about 300 days and decreased by about 4 months from 2001 to 2002. Only in 2012 and 2013 did one-half of the shifts have a delay of about 60 days between start date and final modification.

Virginia

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of chemical data from selected sites in the Surface-Water Ambient Monitoring Program (SWAMP) in Florida

A cooperative study between the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) and the U.S. Geological Survey was conducted to assess the integrity of selected water-quality data collected at 150 sites in the FDEP Surface-Water Ambient Monitoring Program (SWAMP) in Florida. The assessment included determining the consistency of the water-quality data collected statewide, including commonality of monitoring procedures and analytes, screening of the gross validity of a chemical analysis, and quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedures. Four tests were used to screen data at selected SWAMP sites to estimate the gross validity of selected chemical data: (1) the ratio of dissolved solids (in milligrams per liter) to specific conductance (in microsiemens per centimeter); (2) the ratio of total cations (in milliequivalents per liter) multiplied by 100 to specific conductance (in microsiemens per centimeter); (3) the ratio of total anions (in milliequivalents per liter) multiplied by 100 to specific conductance (in microsiemens per centimeter); and (4) the ionic charge-balance error. Although the results of the four screening tests indicate that the chemical data generally are quite reliable, the extremely small number of samples (less than 5 percent of the total number of samples) with sufficient chemical information to run the tests may not provide a representative indication of the analytical accuracy of all laboratories in the program. In addition to the four screening tests, unusually low or high values were flagged for field and laboratory pH (less than 4.0 and greater than 9.0) and specific conductance (less than 10 and greater than 10,000 microsiemens per centimeter). The numbers of flagged data were less than 1 percent of the 19,937 water samples with pH values and less than 0.6 percent of the 16,553 water samples with specific conductance values. Thirty-four agencies responded to a detailed questionnaire that was sent to more than 60 agencies involved in the collection and analysis of surface-water-quality data for SWAMP. The purpose of the survey was to evaluate quality assurance methods and consistency of methods statewide. Information was compiled and summarized on monitoring network design, data review and upload procedures, laboratory and field sampling methods, and data practices. Currently, most agencies that responded to the survey follow FDEP-approved QA/QC protocol for sampling and have quality assurance practices for recording and reporting data. Also, most agencies responded that calibration procedures were followed in the laboratory for analysis of data, but no responses were given about the specific procedures. Approximately 50 percent of the respondents indicated that laboratory analysis methods have changed over time. With so many laboratories involved in analyzing samples for SWAMP, it is difficult to compare water quality from one site to another due to different reporting conventions for chemical constituents and different analytical methods over time. Most agencies responded that calibration methods are followed in the field, but no specific details were provided. Grab samples are the most common method of collection. Other data screening procedures are necessary to further evaluate the validity of chemical data collected at SWAMP sites. High variability in the concentration of targeted constituents may signal analytical problems, but more likely changes in concentration are related to hydrologic conditions. This underscores the need for accurate measurements of discharge, lake stage, tidal stage at the time of sampling so that changes in constituent concentrations can be properly evaluated and fluxes (loads) of nutrients or metals, for example, can be calculated and compared over time.

Florida

Ground-water availability from surficial aquifers in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota

Population growth and commercial and industrial development in the Red River of the North Basin in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have prompted the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior, to evaluate sources of water to sustain this growth. Nine surficial-glacial (surficial) aquifers (Buffalo, Middle River, Two Rivers, Beach Ridges, Pelican River, Otter Tail, Wadena, Pineland Sands, and Bemidji-Bagley) within the Minnesota part of the basin were identified and evaluated for their ground-water resources. Information was compiled and summarized from published studies to evaluate the availability of ground water. Published information reviewed for each of the aquifers included location and extent, physical characteristics, hydraulic properties, ground-water and surface-water interactions, estimates of water budgets (sources of recharge and discharge) and aquifer storage, theoretical well yields and actual ground-water pumping data, recent (2003) ground-water use data, and baseline ground-water-quality data. Water-budget estimates for the aquifers were compiled from steady-state aquifer simulations, precipitation data and hydrograph analysis, and recharge and discharge information. Major sources of recharge to the aquifers are areal recharge, flow from surface water, and flow across aquifer boundaries from adjacent geologic units. Losses of water from the aquifers include evapotranspiration, flow to surface water, flow across aquifer boundaries, and withdrawals by pumping wells. The Bemidji-Bagley, Otter Tail, Pineland Sands, and Wadena surficial aquifers have the highest rates of water inflow and outflow of the nine aquifers in the study area, and the Middle River surficial aquifer has the lowest rates of total water inflow and outflow. Maximum storage volumes of five of the surficial aquifers were calculated using areal extent and published saturated thickness and porosity data. Storage estimates from published studies were included for three of the surficial aquifers. Maximum theoretical well yields for the aquifers generally occur in areas with more abundant, well-sorted, coarse-grained sediment. In 2003, 28 billion gallons of ground water were withdrawn from the aquifers, not including water used for private supply. In 2003, the largest volume of ground water was withdrawn from the Otter Tail surficial aquifer, and the smallest volume was withdrawn from the the Middle River surficial aquifer. Agricultural irrigation and public supply totaled 95 percent of the volume of ground water withdrawn from the aquifers in 2003. Ground-water-quality data indicate that the Buffalo aquifer contained the largest specific conductance and concentrations of dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and iron. Ground water from the Bemidji-Bagley, Otter Tail, Pineland Sands, and Wadena surficial aquifers contained the largest concentrations of nitrate (as nitrogen). In general, the nine aquifers are hydraulically connected to local surface water. Simulations of ground-water development for some of the aquifers describe correlations between increased ground-water withdrawals and declining lake levels and streamflows, lower water-table altitudes, and variations in ground-water quality. On the basis of data and methods presented to evaluate ground-water availability, the Otter Tail and Pineland Sands surficial aquifers and Pelican River sand-plain aquifer have the greatest potential for additional development of ground-water resources in the study area.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota

The water-quality monitoring program for the Baltimore reservoir system, 1981-2007&mdash;Description, review and evaluation, and framework integration for enhanced monitoring

The City of Baltimore, Maryland, and parts of five surrounding counties obtain their water from Loch Raven and Liberty Reservoirs. A third reservoir, Prettyboy, is used to resupply Loch Raven Reservoir. Management of the watershed conditions for each reservoir is a shared responsibility by agreement among City, County, and State jurisdictions. The most recent (2005) Baltimore Reservoir Watershed Management Agreement (RWMA) called for continued and improved water-quality monitoring in the reservoirs and selected watershed tributaries. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a retrospective review of the effectiveness of monitoring data obtained and analyzed by the RWMA jurisdictions from 1981 through 2007 to help identify possible improvements in the monitoring program to address RWMA water-quality concerns. Long-term water-quality concerns include eutrophication and sedimentation in the reservoirs, and elevated concentrations of (a) nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) being transported from the major tributaries to the reservoirs, (b) iron and manganese released from reservoir bed sediments during periods of deep-water anoxia, (c) mercury in higher trophic order game fish in the reservoirs, and (d) bacteria in selected reservoir watershed tributaries. Emerging concerns include elevated concentrations of sodium, chloride, and disinfection by-products (DBPs) in the drinking water from both supply reservoirs. Climate change and variability also could be emerging concerns, affecting seasonal patterns, annual trends, and drought occurrence, which historically have led to declines in reservoir water quality. Monitoring data increasingly have been used to support the development of water-quality models. The most recent (2006) modeling helped establish an annual sediment Total Maximum Daily Load to Loch Raven Reservoir, and instantaneous and 30-day moving average water-quality endpoints for chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) in Loch Raven and Prettyboy Reservoirs. Modelers cited limitations in data, including too few years with sufficient stormflow data, and (or) a lack of (readily available) data, for selected tributary and reservoir hydrodynamic, water-quality, and biotic conditions. Reservoir monitoring also is too infrequent to adequately address the above water-quality endpoints. Monitoring data also have been effectively used to generally describe trophic states, changes in trophic state or conditions related to trophic state, and in selected cases, trends in water-quality or biotic parameters that reflect RWMA water-quality concerns. Limitations occur in the collection, aggregation, analyses, and (or) archival of monitoring data in relation to most RWMA water-quality concerns. Trophic, including eutrophic, conditions have been broadly described for each reservoir in terms of phytoplankton production, and variations in production related to typical seasonal patterns in the concentration of DO, and hypoxic to anoxic conditions, where the latter have led to elevated concentrations of iron and manganese in reservoir and supply waters. Trend analyses for the period 1981-2004 have shown apparent declines in production (algal counts and possibly chl-a). The low frequency of phytoplankton data collection (monthly or bimonthly, depending on the reservoir), however, limits the development of a model to quantitatively describe and relate temporal variations in phytoplankton production including seasonal succession to changes in trophic states or other reservoir water-quality or biotic conditions. Extensive monitoring for nutrients, which, in excessive amounts, cause eutrophic conditions, has been conducted in the watershed tributaries and reservoirs. Data analyses (1980-90s) have (a) identified seasonal patterns in concentrations, (b) characterized loads from (non)point sources, and (c) shown that different seasonal patterns and trends in nutrient concentrations occur between watershed tributaries and downstream reservoir.

Maryl;Pennsylvania

Pecos River Basin salinity assessment, Santa Rosa Lake, New Mexico, to the confluence of the Pecos River and the Rio Grande, Texas, 2015

The elevated salinity of the Pecos River throughout much of its length is of paramount concern to water users and water managers. Dissolved-solids concentrations in the Pecos River exceed 3,000 milligrams per liter in many of its reaches in the study area, from Santa Rosa Lake, New Mexico, to the confluence of the Pecos River with the Rio Grande, Texas. The salinity of the Pecos River increases downstream and affects the availability of useable water in the Pecos River Basin. In this report, “salinity” and “dissolved-solids concentration” are considered synonymous; both terms are used to refer to the total ionic concentration of dissolved minerals in water. The sources of salinity in the Pecos River Basin are natural (geologic) and anthropogenic, including but not limited to groundwater discharge, springs, and irrigation return flows. Previous studies in the Pecos River Basin were project specific and designed to address salinity issues in specific parts of the basin; therefore, in 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, and Texas Water Development Board assessed the major sources of salinity throughout the extent of the basin where elevated salinity in the Pecos River is well documented (that is, in the drainage area of the Pecos River from Santa Rosa Lake to the confluence of the Pecos River and the Rio Grande). The goal was to gain a better understanding of how specific areas might be contributing to the elevated salinity in the Pecos River and how salinity of the Pecos River has changed over time. This assessment includes a literature review and compilation of previously published salinity-related data, which guided the collection of additional water-quality samples and streamflow gain-loss measurements. Differences in water quality of surface-water and groundwater samples, streamflow measurements, and geophysical data were assessed to gain new insights regarding sources of salinity in the Pecos River Basin and a more detailed assessment of potential areas of elevated salinity in the basin. The datasets compiled for this assessment are available in a companion data release. The literature review identified several potential sources of salinity inputs to the Pecos River in New Mexico and Texas. In New Mexico, sources of salinity inputs included sinkhole springs discharging into El Rito Creek, the Bitter Lake National Wildlife Refuge inflow to the Pecos River, inflow from the Rio Hondo, including the main channel and a restored channel at the Bitter Lake National Wildlife Refuge referred to as the “Rio Hondo spring channel,” the outflow from Lea Lake at Bottomless Lakes State Park, and the Malaga Bend region of the Pecos River. In Texas, sources of salinity inputs included Salt Creek downstream from Red Bluff Reservoir and the area near the Horsehead Crossing ford on the Pecos River. The compilation of historical water-quality data revealed a lack of consistent sampling of the same constituents at the same sites along the main stem of the Pecos River, which results in data gaps that hinder the ability to effectively analyze long-term changes in water quality that may help with the understanding of how salinity in the Pecos River has changed over time and identifying the sources of salinity in the Pecos River Basin. To help fill these data gaps, water-quality and streamflow data were collected in the study area in February 2015 by the U.S. Geological Survey. Historical water-quality data and newly collected data from February 2015 were evaluated for selected major-ion concentrations, dissolved-solids concentrations, and deuterium, oxygen, and strontium isotopes. Analysis of the data indicated several areas of increasing salinity in the Pecos River. Most notable increases were in two subreaches of the river, between Acme, N. Mex., and Artesia, N. Mex., and between Orla, Tex., and Grandfalls, Tex. Increasing sodium and chloride concentrations from Acme to Artesia coincided with changes in isotopic ratios within the Pecos River Basin. Changes in isotopic ratios in this reach indicate a likely inflow from an isotopically different source of water compared to the water in the main stem of the Pecos River, such as groundwater inflow, inflow from surface-water features distinct from the main stem of the Pecos River, or both. In the subreach between Orla and Grandfalls, an increase in dissolved-solids concentrations was observed along with a shift in isotope values, indicating that neither evaporative processes in Red Bluff Reservoir nor inflow from Salt Creek likely solely influences the salinity of the Pecos River in this subreach. The highest dissolved-solids concentrations in the Pecos River Basin were measured downstream from Grandfalls, where dissolved-solids concentrations are greater than 16,000 milligrams per liter near Iraan, Tex. Changes in isotopic values (deuterium, oxygen, and strontium) indicate mixing of different waters at several areas along the main stem of the Pecos River. The spatial distribution of the areas of interest from the literature review and the water-quality data are available in the companion data release.

Texas, New Mexico

Fate of Airborne Contaminants in Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge

Designation of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge as a Class I Air Quality Area (given the highest level of protection possible from air pollutants under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977) affords mandatory protection of the Refuge's airshed through the permit-review process for planned developments. Rainfall is the major source of water to the swamp, and potential impacts from developments to the airshed are high. To meet management needs for baseline information, chemical contributions from atmospheric deposition and partitioning of anions and cations, with emphasis on mercury and lead, in the various matrices of the Swamp were determined between July 1993 and April 1995. Chemistry of rainfall was determined on an event basis from one site located at Refuge Headquarters. Field samples of surface water, pore water, floc and sediment were collected from four locations on the Refuge: Chesser Prairie, Chase Prairie, Durden Prairie, and the Narrows. A sediment core sample was collected from the Refuge interior at Bluff Lake for aging of mercury deposition. Rainfall was acidic (pH 4.8) with sulfate concentrations averaging 1.2 mg/L and nitrate averaging 0.8 mg/L. Lead in rainfall averaged 1 ?g/L and total and methylmercury concentrations were 11.7 ng/L and 0.025 ng/L, respectively. The drought of 1993 followed by heavy rains during the fall and winter caused a temporary alteration in the cycling and availability of trace-elements within the different matrices of the Swamp. Surface water was acidic (pH 3.8 to 4.1), dilute (specific conductance 35-60 ?S/cm), and highly organic (DOC 35-50 mg/L). Sediment and floc were also highly organic (>90%). Total mercury averaged 3.6 ng/L in surface water, 9.0 ng/L in pore water and about 170 ng/g in floc and sediments. Mercury bioaccumulated in the biota of the Refuge: fish fillets (Centrarchus macropterus, Esox niger, Lepomus gulosus and Amia calva) had >2 ?g/g dry weight, alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) >4 ?g/g dry weight in liver and kidney, and raccoons (Procyon lotor) >16 ?g/g dry weight in the liver and kidney. Lead averaged 1 ?g/L in rainfall, 6.6 ?g/L in surface water, 9.8 ?g/L in pore water, 12.3 ?g/g in floc and 12.5 ?g/g in sediments. Lead in fish muscle was ~0.1 ?g/g and >1.2 ?g/g in bone, alligator kidney had 1.5 ?g/g lead and liver had 3.8 ?g/g; raccoon kidney and liver averaged about 1 ?g/g. Historical patterns of mercury deposition based on 210Pb aging of the core sample showed mercury increased from pre-1800 concentrations of <250 ng/g to >500 ng/g in the 1950s, with a subsequent decline to current levels. Lead concentrations in the core sample followed a similar pattern as that of mercury. Okefenokee Swamp serves as a sump for the cations and anions deposited through rainfall. Although mercury and lead levels in the biota are not currently acutely hazardous, concentrations are high enough to cause adverse chronic effects on behavioral, physiological or reproductive functions of resident biota, especially piscivorous species. To protect trust resources associated with the Refuge, activities and developments in the airshed that have the potential to increase atmospheric contamination, especially for lead and mercury, should be curtailed.

Book

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

River Metabolism Estimation Tools (RiverMET) with demo in the Illinois River Basin

Ecosystem metabolism quantifies the rate of production, maintenance, and decay of organic matter in terrestrial and aquatic systems. It is a fundamental measure of energy flow associated with biomass production by photosynthesizing organisms and biomass oxidation by respiring plants, animals, algae, and bacteria (Bernhardt et al., 2022) . Ecosystem metabolism also provides an understanding of energy flow to higher trophic levels that supports secondary and tertiary productivity, as well as helping to explain when aquatic ecosystems undergo out-of-balance behaviors such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia. Recent advances in sensor technology and modeling capabilities have enabled estimation of aquatic system metabolism and gas exchange over long time periods in rivers, streams, ponds, and wetlands where oxygen sensors have been deployed. Here we present RiverMET, a framework for estimation of river metabolism, with workflows to streamline data preparation, run a stream metabolism model, assess the model performance, and flag and censor final output data. The workflows are specifically tailored to use streamMetabolizer, a model for one-station calculations of stream metabolism that calculates gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and the air-water gas exchange rate constant (K600). We advise potential users of RiverMET to review core publications for the streamMetabolizer model (Appling et al., 2018 a, b, c) to ensure best practices that produce the most useful results. We encourage feedback about our workflows, although issues regarding the streamMetabolizer model itself should be referred to the model authors. We tested RiverMET by calculating GPP, ER, and K600 across 17 river sites in the Illinois River basin (ILRB). Each river had between one and nine years of sensor data appropriate for modeling metabolism. In total, metabolism was modeled on 15,176 days between 2005 and 2020. Overall confidence in the results was rated as high at nine river sites, medium at six river sites, and poor at two river sites. Twenty-nine percent of the total modeled days had performance metrics that triggered flags. Metrics used for daily flagging are provided with the final output, with an option to only retain the censored daily outputs with high confidence (representing 72 %, i.e., 10,938 days, of the total days modeled). This work was completed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Proxies Project, an effort supported by the Water Mission Area (WMA) Water Quality Processes program to develop estimation methods for harmful algal blooms (HABs), per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and metals, at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Illinois River Basin

Proposal and work plan to calibrate and verify a water-quality model to simulate effects of wastewater discharges to the Red River of the North at drought streamflow near Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

This report presents a proposal for conducting a water-quality modeling study at drought streamflow, a detailed comprehensive plan for collecting the data, and an annual drought-formation monitoring plan. A 30.8 mile reach of the Red River of the North receives treated wastewater from plants at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota, and streamflow from the Sheyenne River. The water-quality modeling study will evaluate the effects of continuous treated-wastewater discharges to the study reach at drought streamflow. The study will define hydraulic characteristics and reaeration and selected reaction coefficients and will calibrate and verity a model. The study includes collecting synoptic water-quality samples for various types of analyses at a number of sites in the study reach. Dye and gas samples will be collected for traveltime and reaeration measurements. Using the Lagrangian reference frame, synoptic water-quality samples will be collected for analysis of nutrients, chlorophyll a, alkalinity, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Field measurements will be made of specific conductance, pH, air and water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment oxygen demand. Two sets of water-quality data will be collected. One data set will be used to calibrate the model, and the other data set will be used to verity the model. The DAFLOW/BLTM models will be used to evaluate the effects of the treated wastewater on the water quality of the river. The model will simulate specific conductance, temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen (organic, ammonia, nitrite, nitrate), total orthophosphorus, total phosphorus, and phytoplankton as chlorophyll a. The work plan identifies and discusses the work elements needed for accomplishing the data collection for the study. The work elements specify who will provide personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies needed during data collection. The work plan contains instructions for data collection; inventory lists of needed personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies; and examples of computations for determining quantities of tracer to be injected into the stream. The work plan also contains an annual drought-formation monitoring plan that includes a 9-month time line that specifies when essential planning actions must occur before actual project start up. Drought streamflows are rare. The annual drought-formation monitoring plan is presented to assist project planning by providing early warning that conditions are favorable to produce drought streamflow. The plan to monitor drought-forming conditions discusses the drought indices to be monitored. To establish a baseline, historic values for some of the drought indices for selected years were reviewed. An annual review of the drought indices is recommended.

Open-File Report

Geochemistry, Comparative Analysis, and Physical and Chemical Characteristics of the Thermal Waters East of Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas, 2006-09

A study was conducted by the U.S Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department to characterize the source and hydrogeologic conditions responsible for thermal water in a domestic well 5.5 miles east of Hot Springs National Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas, and to determine the degree of hydraulic connectivity between the thermal water in the well and the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. The water temperature in the well, which was completed in the Stanley Shale, measured 33.9 degrees Celsius, March 1, 2006, and dropped to 21.7 degrees Celsius after 2 hours of pumping - still more than 4 degrees above typical local groundwater temperature. A second domestic well located 3 miles from the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park was discovered to have a thermal water component during a reconnaissance of the area. This second well was completed in the Bigfork Chert and field measurement of well water revealed a maximum temperature of 26.6 degrees Celsius. Mean temperature for shallow groundwater in the area is approximately 17 degrees Celsius. The occurrence of thermal water in these wells raised questions and concerns with regard to the timing for the appearance of the thermal water, which appeared to coincide with construction (including blasting activities) of the Highway 270 bypass-Highway 70 interchange. These concerns were heightened by the planned extension of the Highway 270 bypass to the north - a corridor that takes the highway across a section of the eroded anticlinal complex responsible for recharge to the hot springs of Hot Springs National Park. Concerns regarding the possible effects of blasting associated with highway construction near the first thermal well necessitated a technical review on the effects of blasting on shallow groundwater systems. Results from available studies suggested that propagation of new fractures near blasting sites is of limited extent. Vibrations from blasting can result in rock collapse for uncased wells completed in highly fractured rock. However, the propagation of newly formed large fractures that potentially could damage well structures or result in pirating of water from production wells appears to be of limited possibility based on review of relevant studies. Characteristics of hydraulic conductivity, storage, and fracture porosity were interpreted from flow rates observed in individual wells completed in the Bigfork Chert and Stanley Shale; from hydrographs produced from continuous measurements of water levels in wells completed in the Arkansas Novaculite, the Bigfork Chert, and Stanley Shale; and from a potentiometric-surface map constructed using water levels in wells throughout the study area. Data gathered from these three separate exercises showed that fracture porosity is much greater in the Bigfork Chert relative to that in the Stanley Shale, shallow groundwater flows from elevated recharge areas with exposures of Bigfork Chert along and into streams within the valleys formed on exposures of the Stanley Shale, and there was no evidence of interbasin transfer of groundwater within the shallow flow system. Fifteen shallow wells and two cold-water springs were sampled from the various exposed formations in the study area to characterize the water quality and geochemistry for the shallow groundwater system and for comparison to the geochemistry of the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. For the quartz formations (novaculite, chert, and sandstone formations), total dissolved solids concentrations were very low with a median concentration of 23 milligrams per liter, whereas the median concentration for groundwater from the shale formations was 184 milligrams per liter. Ten hot springs in Hot Springs National Park were sampled for the study. Several chemical constituents for the hot springs, including pH, total dissolved solids, major cations and anions, and trace metals, show similarity with the shale formations

Scientific Investigations Report

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal ( Phoca largha ) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Ecological Monographs

Water-quality characteristics, trends, and nutrient and sediment loads of streams in the Treyburn development area, North Carolina, 1988–2009

Streamflow and water-quality data, including concentrations of nutrients, metals, and pesticides, were collected from October 1988 through September 2009 at six sites in the Treyburn development study area. A review of water-quality data for streams in and near a 5,400-acre planned, mixed-use development in the Falls Lake watershed in the upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina indicated only small-scale changes in water quality since the previous assessment of data collected from 1988 to 1998. Loads and yields were estimated for sediment and nutrients, and temporal trends were assessed for specific conductance, pH, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, suspended sediment, and nutrients. Water-quality conditions for the Little River tributary and Mountain Creek may reflect development within these basins. The nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at the Treyburn sites are low compared to sites nationally. The herbicides atrazine, metolachlor, prometon, and simazine were detected frequently at Mountain Creek and Little River tributary but concentrations are low compared to sites nationally. Little River tributary had the lowest median suspended-sediment yield over the 1988–2009 study period, whereas Flat River tributary had the largest median yield. The yields estimated for suspended sediment and nutrients were low compared to yields estimated for other basins in the Southeastern United States. Recent increasing trends were detected in total nitrogen concentration and suspended-sediment concentrations for Mountain Creek, and an increasing trend was detected in specific conductance for Little River tributary. Decreasing trends were detected in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, sediment, and specific conductance for Flat River tributary. Water chemical concentrations, loads, yields, and trends for the Treyburn study sites reflect some effects of upstream development. These measures of water quality are generally low, however, compared to regional and national averages.

North Carolina