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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Seed harvesting by a generalist consumer is context-dependent: Interactive effects across multiple spatial scales

Granivore foraging decisions affect consumer success and determine the quantity and spatial pattern of seed survival. These decisions are influenced by environmental variation at spatial scales ranging from landscapes to local foraging patches. In a field experiment, the effects of seed patch variation across three spatial scales on seed removal by western harvester ants Pogonomyrmex occidentalis were evaluated. At the largest scale we assessed harvesting in different plant communities, at the intermediate scale we assessed harvesting at different distances from ant mounds, and at the smallest scale we assessed the effects of interactions among seed species in local seed neighborhoods on seed harvesting (i.e. resource–consumer interface). Selected seed species were presented alone (monospecific treatment) and in mixture with Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass; mixture treatment) at four distances from P. occidentalis mounds in adjacent intact sagebrush and non-native cheatgrass-dominated communities in the Great Basin, Utah, USA. Seed species differed in harvest, with B. tectorum being least preferred. Large and intermediate scale variation influenced harvest. More seeds were harvested in sagebrush than in cheatgrass-dominated communities (largest scale), and the quantity of seed harvested varied with distance from mounds (intermediate-scale), although the form of the distance effect differed between plant communities. At the smallest scale, seed neighborhood affected harvest, but the patterns differed among seed species considered. Ants harvested fewer seeds from mixed-seed neighborhoods than from monospecific neighborhoods, suggesting context dependence and potential associational resistance. Further, the effects of plant community and distance from mound on seed harvest in mixtures differed from their effects in monospecific treatments. Beyond the local seed neighborhood, selection of seed resources is better understood by simultaneously evaluating removal at multiple scales. Associational effects provide a useful theoretical basis for better understanding harvester ant foraging decisions. These results demonstrate the importance of ecological context for seed removal, which has implications for seed pools, plant populations and communities.

Oikos

Energetic constraints and the paradox of a diffusing population in a heterogeneous environment

Previous mathematical analyses have shown that, for certain parameter ranges, a population, described by logistic equations on a set of connected patches, and diffusing among them, can reach a higher equilibrium total population when the local carrying capacities are heterogeneously distributed across patches, than when carrying capacities having the same total sum are homogeneously distributed across the patches. It is shown here that this apparently paradoxical result is explained when the resultant differences in energy inputs to the whole multi-patch system are taken into account. We examine both Pearl–Verhulst and Original Verhulst logistic models and show that, when total input of energy or limiting resource, is constrained to be the same in the homogeneous and heterogeneous cases, the total population in the heterogeneous patches can never reach an asymptotic equilibrium that is greater than the sum of the carrying capacities over the homogeneous patches. We further show that, when the dynamics of the limiting resources are explicitly modeled, as in a chemostat model, the paradoxical result of the logistic models does not occur. These results have implications concerning the use of some ubiquitous equations of population ecology in modeling populations in space.

Theoretical Population Biology

Evaluating mechanisms of plant‐mediated effects on herbivore persistence and occupancy across an ecoregion

Contemporary climate change is rapidly creating one of the greatest challenges for management and conservation during the 21st century. Mountain ecosystems, which have a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and contain numerous habitat specialists, have been identified as particularly vulnerable. We used data from multiple years across sites spanning a >40 million ha ecoregion to test hypotheses regarding how community‐level characteristics of vegetation may affect a mammalian generalist herbivore, the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ). We examined patterns of pika persistence across sites in the hydrographic Great Basin, and occupancy within a subset of these sites. We used mixed‐effects logistic regression models to compare evidence in support of competing explanations for each pattern within an information–theoretic framework (using Akaike's information criterion). Models reflected four hypothesized classes of mechanisms related to nutritional ecology, ecosystem function, indirect indication of climatic effects, and (synergistic) combinations of these three classes. At the site level, models reflecting synergistic effects received the most support. At the within‐site level, support appeared to be split equally among hypotheses containing predictors related to either nutritional ecology or indirect climate effects. Well‐supported predictors included cover of invasive plant species, cover of more‐xeric plant species, species evenness, and proportion of graminoid species. Our results both (1) identify important aspects of vegetation communities that may influence herbivore distribution in mountainous areas across a large, diverse geographic region, and (2) contribute to an improved understanding of how mountain ecosystems may be affected by ongoing climate change, more broadly.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming

Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

Book

Bat ecology and public health surveillance for rabies in an urbanizing region of Colorado

We describe use of Fort Collins, Colorado, and nearby areas by bats in 2001–2005, and link patterns in bat ecology with concurrent public health surveillance for rabies. Our analyses are based on evaluation of summary statistics, and information-theoretic support for results of simple logistic regression. Based on captures in mist nets, the city bat fauna differed from that of the adjacent mountains, and was dominated by big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ). Species, age, and sex composition of bats submitted for rabies testing locally and along the urbanizing Front Range Corridor were similar to those of the mist-net captures and reflected the annual cycle of reproduction and activity of big brown bats. Few submissions occurred November- March, when these bats hibernated elsewhere. In summer females roosted in buildings in colonies and dominated health samples; fledging of young corresponded to a summer peak in health submissions with no increase in rabies prevalence. Roosting ecology of big brown bats in buildings was similar to that reported for natural sites, including colony size, roost-switching behavior, fidelity to roosts in a small area, and attributes important for roost selection. Attrition in roosts occurred from structural modifications of buildings to exclude colonies by citizens, but without major effects on long-term bat reproduction or survival. Bats foraged in areas set aside for nature conservation. A pattern of lower diversity in urban bat communities with dominance by big brown bats may occur widely in the USA, and is consistent with national public health records for rabies surveillance.

Colorado

Potential trophic cascades triggered by the barred owl range expansion

Recently, the barred owl ( Strix varia ) has expanded its range into the Pacific Northwest of the United States resulting in pronounced effects on the demography and behavior of the northern spotted owl ( S. occidentalis caurina ). The range expansion has brought together historically allopatric species, creating the potential for significant changes in the avian predator community with possible cascading effects on food-web dynamics. The adverse effects of the barred owl on the behavior and demography of the northern spotted owl are well-documented, but little is known about the immediate and long-term effects changes in the predator community may have on native species composition and ecosystem processes. Based on northern spotted owl and barred owl selection for diet and habitat resources, there is a potential for trophic cascades within the region's predator and prey communities, differing responses by their shared and unique prey species, and possible direct and indirect effects on ecosystem processes. We explored the possible ecological consequences of the barred owl range expansion to wildlife communities of the Pacific Northwest based on the theoretical underpinnings of predator–prey relationships, interspecific competition, intraguild predation, and potential cascading trophic interactions. Negative effects on fitness of northern spotted owls because of interspecific competition with barred owls are strong selection forces that may contribute to the regional extinction of the northern spotted owl. In addition, we posit that shared prey species and those uniquely consumed by barred owls, along with other competing native predators, may experience changes in behavior, abundance, and distribution as a result of increased rates of predation by rapidly expanding populations of barred owls.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Carbon isotope composition of ambient CO 2 and recycling: a matrix simulation model

The relationship between isotopic composition and concentration of ambient CO 2 in a canopy and its associated convective boundary layer was modeled. The model divides the canopy and convective boundary layer into several layers. Photosynthesis, respiration, and exchange between each layer can be simulated by matrix equations. This simulation can be used to calculate recycling; defined here as the amount of respired CO 2 re-fixed by photosynthesis relative to the total amount of respired CO 2 . At steady state the matrix equations can be solved for the canopy and convective boundary layer CO 2 concentration and isotopic profile, which can be used to calculate a theoretical recycling index according to a previously developed equation. There is complete agreement between simulated and theoretical recycling indices for different exchange scenarios. Recycling indices from a simulation of gas exchange between a heterogeneous vegetation canopy and the troposphere also agreed with a more generalized form of the theoretical recycling equation developed here.

Ecological Modelling

The Interface Between Theory and Data in Structural Equation Models

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite, for representing general concepts. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling general relationships of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially reduced form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influences of suites of variables are often of interest.

Open-File Report

Sensitivity of system stability to model structure

A community is stable, and resilient, if the levels of all community variables can return to the original steady state following a perturbation. The stability properties of a community depend on its structure, which is the network of direct effects (interactions) among the variables within the community. These direct effects form feedback cycles (loops) that determine community stability. Although feedback cycles have an intuitive interpretation, identifying how they form the feedback properties of a particular community can be intractable. Furthermore, determining the role that any specific direct effect plays in the stability of a system is even more daunting. Such information, however, would identify important direct effects for targeted experimental and management manipulation even in complex communities for which quantitative information is lacking. We therefore provide a method that determines the sensitivity of community stability to model structure, and identifies the relative role of particular direct effects, indirect effects, and feedback cycles in determining stability. Structural sensitivities summarize the degree to which each direct effect contributes to stabilizing feedback or destabilizing feedback or both. Structural sensitivities prove useful in identifying ecologically important feedback cycles within the community structure and for detecting direct effects that have strong, or weak, influences on community stability. The approach may guide the development of management intervention and research design. We demonstrate its value with two theoretical models and two empirical examples of different levels of complexity. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling

Social-ecological predictors of global invasions and extinctions

Most assessments of resilience have been focused on local conditions. Studies focused on the relationship between humanity and environmental degradation are rare, and are rarely comprehensive. We investigated multiple social-ecological factors for 100 countries around the globe in relation to the percentage of invasions and extinctions within each country. These 100 countries contain approximately 87% of the world’s population, produce 43% of the world’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and take up 74% of the earth’s total land area. We used an information theoretic approach to determine which models were most supported by our data, utilizing an a priori set of plausible models that included a combination of 15 social-ecological variables, each social-ecological factor by itself, and selected social-ecological factors grouped into three broad classes. These variables were per capita GDP, export-import ratio, tourism, undernourishment, energy efficiency, agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, wilderness protection, total biodiversity, life expectancy, adult literacy, pesticide regulation, political stability, and female participation in government. Our results indicate that as total biodiversity and total land area increase, the percentage of endangered birds also increases. As the independent variables (agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, and total biodiversity) in the ecological class model increase, the percentage of endangered mammals in a country increases. The percentage of invasive birds and mammals in a country increases as per capita GDP increases. As life expectancy increases, the percentage of invasive and endangered birds and mammals increases. Although our analysis does not determine mechanisms, the patterns observed in this study provide insight into the dynamics of a complex, global, social-ecological system.

Ecology and Society

A latent process model approach to improve the utility of indicator species

The state of an ecosystem is governed by dynamic biotic and abiotic processes, which can only be partially observed. Costs associated with measuring each component limit the feasibility of comprehensive assessments of target ecosystems. Instead, indicator species are recommended as a surrogate index. While this is an attractive concept, indicator species have rarely proven to be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystems and informing management decisions. One deficiency in the existing theoretical development of indicator species may be overcome with the incorporation of latent (i.e. unobservable) states. Advancements in quantitative ecological models allow for latent‐state models to be tested empirically, facilitating the robust evaluation and practical use of indicator species for ecosystem science and management. Here, we extend the existing conceptual models of indicator species to include a direct relationship between an indicator species, ecosystem change drivers and latent processes and variables. Our approach includes explicit consideration of important estimation uncertainty and narrows the range of values a latent variable may take by relating it to measurable attribute(s) of an indicator species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by relating a commonly cited indicator species, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus , to a typical latent process of interest – ecosystem health.

Oikos

From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments

Ecosystem services mapping and modeling has focused more on supply than demand, until recently. Whereas the potential provision of economic benefits from ecosystems to people is often quantified through ecological production functions, the use of and demand for ecosystem services has received less attention, as have the spatial flows of services from ecosystems to people. However, new modeling approaches that map and quantify service-specific sources (ecosystem capacity to provide a service), sinks (biophysical or anthropogenic features that deplete or alter service flows), users (user locations and level of demand), and spatial flows can provide a more complete understanding of ecosystem services. Through a case study in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, we quantify and differentiate between the theoretical or in situ provision of services, i.e., ecosystems’ capacity to supply services, and their actual provision when accounting for the location of beneficiaries and the spatial connections that mediate service flows between people and ecosystems. Our analysis includes five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration and storage, riverine flood regulation, sediment regulation for reservoirs, open space proximity, and scenic viewsheds. Each ecosystem service is characterized by different beneficiary groups and means of service flow. Using the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) methodology we map service supply, demand, and flow, extending on simpler approaches used by past studies to map service provision and use. With the exception of the carbon sequestration service, regions that actually provided services to people, i.e., connected to beneficiaries via flow paths, amounted to 16-66% of those theoretically capable of supplying services, i.e., all ecosystems across the landscape. These results offer a more complete understanding of the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services and their effects, and may provide a sounder basis for economic valuation and policy applications than studies that consider only theoretical service provision and/or use.

Washington

The role of reserves and anthropogenic elements for functional connectivity and resilience of ephemeral habitats

Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, USA, an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer dispersing, sometimes nonnative species may be favored over smaller, shorter dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

Nebraska

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Ecological Modelling

Food caching by a solitary large carnivore reveals importance of intermediate-sized prey

Pumas ( Puma concolor ) are solitary large carnivores that exhibit high energetic investments while hunting prey that often take multiple days to consume. Therefore, pumas should behave in a way to maximize their energetic gains, including using caching, which is a behavior used by many mammal species to preserve and store food or to conceal it from conspecifics and scavengers to limit their losses. Yet pumas do not always cache their kills. In order to understand caching behavior, we used variables associated with the kills such as prey mass, search time, climate, and habitat to test 20 ecological models (representing four a priori hypotheses: food perishability, resource pulse, consumption time, and kleptoparasitism deterrence) in an information-theoretic approach of model selection to explore factors related to the caching behavior. Models were run with information from tracked radio-collared pumas in California over a 2.5-year period and identified a total of 352 kills. Overall, we documented pumas caching 61.5% of their kills, including 71.6% of Black-tailed Deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), their primary prey in the study area. The model with a quadratic effect of adjusted mass of prey on puma caching probability had all of the empirical support ( w = 1.00). Specifically, pumas were most likely to cache intermediate-sized prey, such as yearling and adult female deer, and also fed from cached kills for longer periods of time. Larger prey may be too large to easily cache, making it less energetically efficient—while small prey can often be consumed quickly enough to not require caching. This suggests that intermediate-sized prey may be the optimal size for caching, allowing a puma to feed for multiple days while not greatly increasing energetic output. The hypotheses we tested were not mutually exclusive and pumas caching their prey may occur for several reasons; nevertheless, our study demonstrated that pumas use caching to extend their foraging time and maximize energetic gains when preying on intermediate-sized prey.

California

An index of biological integrity for northern Mid-Atlantic Slope drainages

An index of biological integrity (IBI) was developed for streams in the Hudson, Delaware, and Susquehanna River drainages in the northeastern United States based on fish assemblage data from the Mohawk River drainage of New York. The original IBI, developed for streams in the U.S. Midwest, was modified to reflect the assemblage composition and structure present in Mid-Atlantic Slope drainages. We replaced several of the Midwestern IBI metrics and criteria scores because fishes common to the Midwest are absent from or poorly represented in the Northeast and because stream fish assemblages in the Northeast are less rich than those in the Midwest. For all replacement metrics we followed the ecology-based rationale used in the development of each of the metrics of the Midwestern IBI so that the basic theoretical underpinnings of the IBI remained unchanged. The validity of this modified IBI is demonstrated by examining the quality of streams in the Hudson, Delaware, and lower Susquehanna River basins. The relationships between the IBI and other indicators of environmental quality are examined using data on assemblages of fish and benthic macroinvertebrates and on chemical and physical stream characteristics obtained during 1993-2000 by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program in these three river basins. A principal components analysis (PCA) of chemical and physical variables from 27 sites resulted in an environmental quality gradient as the primary PCA axis (eigenvalue, 0.41 ). Principal components analysis site scores were significantly correlated with such benthic macroinvertebrate metrics as the percentage of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (Spearman R = -0.66, P < 0.001). Index of biological integrity scores for sites in these three river basins were significantly correlated with this environmental quality gradient (Spearman R = -0.78, P = 0.0001). The northern Mid-Atlantic Slope IBI appears to be sensitive to environmental degradation in all three of the river basins addressed in this study. Adjustment of metric scoring criteria may be warranted, depending on composition of fish species in streams in the study area and on the relative effort used in the collection of fish assemblage data.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications