Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “The Cryosphere”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

Mountain Research and Development↗
USGS2024

(Re)discovering the seismicity of Antarctica: A new seismic catalog for the southernmost continent

We apply a machine learning (ML) earthquake detection technique on over 21 yr of seismic data from on‐continent temporary and long‐term networks to obtain the most complete catalog of seismicity in Antarctica to date. The new catalog contains 60,006 seismic events within the Antarctic continent for 1 January 2000–1 January 2021, with estimated moment magnitudes (⁠Mw ⁠) between −1.0 and 4.5. Most detected seismicity occurs near Ross Island, large ice shelves, ice streams, ice‐covered volcanoes, or in distinct and isolated areas within the continental interior. The event locations and waveform characteristics indicate volcanic, tectonic, and cryospheric sources. The catalog shows that Antarctica is more seismically active than prior catalogs would indicate, examples include new tectonic events in East Antarctica, seismic events near and around the vicinity of David Glacier, and many thousands of events in the Mount Erebus region. This catalog provides a resource for more specific studies using other detection and analysis methods such as template matching or transfer learning to further discriminate source types and investigate diverse seismogenic processes across the continent.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Ecology↗
USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Larsen Ice Shelf Area, Antarctica, 1940-2005

Changes in the area and volume of polar ice sheets are intricately linked to changes in global climate, and the resulting changes in sea level could severely impact the densely populated coastal regions on Earth. Antarctica is Earth's largest reservoir of glacial ice. Melting of the West Antarctic part alone of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of approximately 6 meters (m), and the potential sea-level rise after melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to be 65 m (Lythe and others, 2001) to 73 m (Williams and Hall, 1993). The mass balance (the net volumetric gain or loss) of the Antarctic ice sheet is highly complex, responding differently to different climatic and other conditions in each region (Vaughan, 2005). In a review paper, Rignot and Thomas (2002) concluded that the West Antarctic ice sheet is probably becoming thinner overall; although it is known to be thickening in the west, it is thinning in the north. The mass balance of the East Antarctic ice sheet is thought by Davis and others (2005) to be positive on the basis of the change in satellite-altimetry measurements made between 1992 and 2003. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council (1986), in subsequent recommendations by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) (1989, 1993), and by the National Science Foundation's (1990) Division of Polar Programs. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decided that the archive of early 1970s Landsat 1, 2, and 3 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images of Antarctica and the subsequent repeat coverage made possible with Landsat and other satellite images provided an excellent means of documenting changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica (Ferrigno and Gould, 1987). The availability of this information provided the impetus for carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the glaciological features of the coastal regions and changes in ice fronts of Antarctica (Swithinbank, 1988; Williams and Ferrigno, 1988). The project was later modified to include Landsat 4 and 5 MSS and Thematic Mapper (TM) images [and in some areas Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images], RADARSAT images, aerial photography, and other data where available, to compare changes that occurred during a 20- to 25- or 30-year time interval (or longer where data were available, as in the Antarctic Peninsula). The results of the analysis are being used to produce a digital database and a series of USGS Geologic Investigations Series Maps (I-2600) (Williams and others, 1995; Ferrigno and others, 2002; and Williams and Ferrigno, 2005) (available online at http://www.glaciers.er.usgs.gov).

IMAP↗
USGS2009

Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Palmer Land Area, Antarctica: 1947-2009

Reduction in the area and volume of the two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate, and the resulting rise in sea level could severely impact the densely populated coastal regions on Earth. Antarctica is Earth's largest reservoir of glacial ice. Melting of the West Antarctic part alone of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of approximately 6 meters (m), and the potential sea-level rise after melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to be 65 m (Lythe and others, 2001) to 73 m (Williams and Hall, 1993). The mass balance (the net volumetric gain or loss) of the Antarctic ice sheet is highly complex, responding differently to different climatic and other conditions in each region (Vaughan, 2005). In a review paper, Rignot and Thomas (2002) concluded that the West Antarctic ice sheet is probably becoming thinner overall; although it is known to be thickening in the west, it is thinning in the north. The mass balance of the East Antarctic ice sheet is thought by Davis and others (2005) to be positive on the basis of the change in satellite-altimetry measurements made between 1992 and 2003. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council (1986), in subsequent recommendations by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) (1989, 1993), and by the National Science Foundation's (1990) Division of Polar Programs. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decided that the archive of early 1970s Landsat 1, 2, and 3 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images of Antarctica and the subsequent repeat coverage made possible with Landsat and other satellite images provided an excellent means of documenting changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica (Ferrigno and Gould, 1987). The availability of this information provided the impetus for carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the glaciological features of the coastal regions and changes in ice fronts of Antarctica (Swithinbank, 1988; Williams and Ferrigno, 1988). The project was later modified to include Landsat 4 and 5 MSS and Thematic Mapper (TM) images (and in some areas Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images), RADARSAT images, aerial photography, and other data where available, to compare changes that occurred during a 20- to 25- or 30-year time interval (or longer where data were available, as in the Antarctic Peninsula). The results of the analysis are being used to produce a digital database and a series of USGS Geologic Investigations Series Maps (I-2600) (Williams and others, 1995; Swithinbank and others, 2003a,b, 2004; Ferrigno and others, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and in press; and Williams and Ferrigno, 2005) (available online at http://www.glaciers.er.usgs.gov).

IMAP↗
USGS2010

Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Ross Island area, Antarctica

Reduction in the area and volume of Earth?s two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate and to the resulting rise in sea level. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey used its archive of satellite images to document changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica and analyze the glaciological features of the coastal regions. The Ross Island area map is bounded by long 141? E. and 175? E. and by lat 76? S. and 81? S. The map covers the part of southern Victoria Land that includes the northwestern Ross Ice Shelf, the McMurdo Ice Shelf, part of the polar plateau and Transantarctic Mountains, the McMurdo Dry Valleys, northernmost Shackleton Coast, Hillary Coast, the southern part of Scott Coast, and Ross Island. Little noticeable change has occurred in the ice fronts on the map, so the focus is on glaciological features. In the western part of the map area, the polar plateau of East Antarctica, once thought to be a featureless region, has subtle wavelike surface forms (megadunes) and flow traces of glaciers that originate far inland and extend to the coast or into the Ross Ice Shelf. There are numerous outlet glaciers. Glaciers drain into the McMurdo Dry Valleys, through the Transantarctic Mountains into the Ross Sea, or into the Ross Ice Shelf. Byrd Glacier is the largest. West of the Transantarctic Mountains are areas of blue ice, readily identifiable on Landsat images, that have been determined to be prime areas for finding meteorites. Three subglacial lakes have been identified in the map area. Because McMurdo Station, the main U.S. scientific research station in Antarctica, is located on Ross Island in the map area, many of these and other features in the area have been studied extensively. The paper version of this map is available for purchase from the USGS Store.

IMAP↗
USGS2013

Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Amery Ice Shelf area, Antarctica: 1961–2004

Reduction in the area and volume of Earth’s two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate and to the resulting rise in sea level. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey used its archive of satellite images to document changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica and analyze the glaciological features of the coastal regions. Amery Ice Shelf, lying between 67.5° and 75° East longitude and 68.5° and 73.2° South latitude, is the largest ice shelf in East Antarctica. The latest measurements of the area of the ice shelf range between 62,620 and 71,260 square kilometers. The ice shelf is fed primarily by Lambert, Mellor, and Fisher Glaciers; its thickness ranges from 3,000 meters in the center of the grounding line to less than 300 meters at the ice front. Lambert Glacier is considered to be the largest glacier in the world, and its drainage basin is more than 1 million square kilometers in area. It is possible to see some coastal change on the outlet glaciers along the coast, but most of the noticeable change occurs on the Amery Ice Shelf front.

IMAP↗
USGS2007

Antarctica: A Keystone in a Changing World--Online Proceedings for the Tenth International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences. Santa Barbara, California, U.S.A.--August 26 to September 1, 2007

Overview: The International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences (ISAES) is held once every four years to provide an international forum for presenting research results and new ideas and for planning future Antarctic geoscience research projects. This Tenth ISAES coincides with the International Polar Year (IPY; 50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year) and has been structured to showcase the great breadth of geoscience research being done in Antarctic regions by more than more than 100 institutions located in over 30 countries. The science program of the Symposium encompasses six broad themes that cover key topics on evolution and interactions of the geosphere, cryosphere and biosphere and their cross-linkages with past and historic paleoclimates. Emphasis is also on deciphering the climate records in ice cores, geologic cores, rock outcrops and those inferred from climate models. New technologies for the coming decades of geoscience data collection are also highlighted. Ten keynote presentations at the symposium outline the foundation for the research sessions of the symposium and the structure of the Online Proceedings and Proceedings Book for the Tenth ISAES. The ISAES is traditionally a cornerstone meeting for the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In recognition of the Tenth ISAES being held in the U.S. for the first time in 30 years and during IPY, the publication of the symposium proceedings is being handled as a special collaborative effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, The National Academies Polar Research Board and The National Academies Press. The National Academies Polar Research Board oversees the activities of SCAR in the U.S. Special attention has been directed at publication formats for the symposium, to expedite the open and wide sharing of mature and preliminary research results presented in talks and posters at the Tenth ISAES. All symposium presentations are documented by a short Summary printed in the Symposium Program Booklet and either a short research paper or an extended abstract. The research papers and extended abstracts are compiled in this Online Proceedings and are replicated on a DVD-ROM that is placed in the back of the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book. The Proceedings Book has printed versions of the keynote talks and an overview paper of the symposium. The short research papers and extended abstracts have been handled differently. Research papers present mature research results and syntheses. They have been peer-reviewed using standard journal procedures. Following revisions and acceptances by co-editors, the papers have been formatted for publication and proofread by authors. Each paper has been assigned a Digital Object Identification (DOI) number and separate html link, and posted online (as part of this USGS Open-File Report series) to ensure open and wide access to the research results. Extended abstracts focus on preliminary research results and have not been peer reviewed. They have had only minimal editorial review and revision. Authors have formatted and proofread their papers. Extended abstracts were not given DOI numbers and are included together in a separate chapter of this online Proceedings. USGS publications staff and Stanford-student editorial assistants indexed and compiled the PDF versions of the short research papers and extended abstracts for inclusion in this online Proceedings. USGS staff created the master DVD-ROM that contains a replica of the Online Proceedings for the Tenth ISAES, and provided the DVD-ROM copies that are included in the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book published by The National Academies Press in the U.S. A team of more than 25 co-editors coordinated with the numerous authors and peer reviewers in handling the many research papers and extended abstracts that are included herein. Handling the large volume of short papers and extended abstracts, getting most of them onli

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Satellite interferometry landslide detection and preliminary tsunamigenic plausibility assessment in Prince William Sound, southcentral Alaska

Regional mapping of actively deforming landslides, including measurements of landslide velocity, is integral for hazard assessments in paraglacial environments. These inventories are also critical for describing the potential impacts that the warming effects of climate change have on slope instability in mountainous and cryospheric terrain. The objective of this study is to identify slow-moving landslides in the Prince William Sound region, southcentral Alaska, United States, which has had rapid deglaciation since the mid-1800s, and assess their tsunamigenic plausibility. We use an automated time series persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing method with 7 years of Sentinel-1 data (2016–22) to identify 43 slow-moving slopes with average velocities ranging from approximately 0.2 to 21 millimeters per year. Landslide presence is confirmed using aerial imagery and previous landslide inventory records. We assess the tsunamigenic plausibility of the landslides using empirically derived estimates of landslide mobility based on modeled landslide volumes. Of the identified landslides, our preliminary analysis suggests that 11 have tsunamigenic potential if they were to fail rapidly and catastrophically. Although our estimate of tsunamigenic plausibility is preliminary and can be refined with additional observations and analyses, it can be used to prioritize ongoing and future hazard assessment, surveillance, and research efforts.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Climate change and future water availability in the United States

The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire weather, flooding, and heavy precipitation, as well as cryosphere decline and sea-level rise. In this chapter of the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, we provide an overview of climate-change observations and projections from Earth-system model simulations that relate to future water availability, from global and national climate assessments and from the published literature. Effects of climate change on primary water-cycle components are discussed in context of how global-scale hydroclimate drivers influence regional processes within the United States. Understanding the major climate drivers impacting the water cycle is crucial to predicting future changes in water availability and developing adaptation strategies to ensure human and ecosystem water supplies. First, we provide background information on the water cycle, the climate-model ensemble simulations developed to produce projections based on warming scenarios, and attribution and certainty levels. Tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks, cascading effects, and compound extremes are introduced. The framework of climatic impact drivers (CIDs) outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is used to show primary drivers of physical change to the water cycle and to understand and predict changes in future water availability. Specific climate-change related observations and projections are discussed for water cycle components of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, streamflow, lakes and wetlands, ice and snow, and groundwater, as well as their implications for future water availability for humans and ecosystems. The chapter concludes with a synthesis discussion of three examples of complex regional-scale hydroclimate processes that influence water availability for populations in the United States, including (1) mountain and coastal precipitation, (2) aridification and drought, and (3) the influence of forest-cover change on terrestrial water-vapor recycling.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2022

Optimizing satellite resources for the global assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards—Suggestions from the USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group

A significant number of the world’s approximately 1,400 subaerial volcanoes with Holocene eruptions are unmonitored by ground-based sensors yet constitute a potential hazard to nearby residents and infrastructure, as well as air travel and global commerce. Data from an international constellation of more than 60 current satellite instruments provide a cost-effective means of tracking activity and potentially forecasting hazards at volcanoes around the world. These data span the electromagnetic spectrum: ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and microwave (synthetic aperture radar). They can measure volcanic thermal and gas emissions, ground displacement, and surface and topographic change, providing information that addresses one of the grand challenges in volcanology—to overcome our incomplete understanding of the relation between volcanic unrest and eruption, which is currently based on only a few well-studied volcanoes. Although the potential of volcano remote sensing has been recognized for decades, there are many hurdles to clear before remote sensing data can be used fully by all volcano observatories. These include: (1) the limited temporal and spatial coverage of active volcanoes by satellites and the delayed distribution of those data; (2) the lack of background data acquired at all volcanoes; and (3) limited access to, and utilization of, remote sensing data in some areas owing to a lack of expertise, licensing, user-friendly formats, data access portals, or computational infrastructure. While remote sensing data will never replace ground-based monitoring, a joint observation strategy provides a powerful means of assessing volcanic activity before, during, and after hazardous eruptions, especially given the unique spatial, temporal, and spectral perspective provided by remote measurements. A coordinated international remote sensing observation strategy for volcanoes—similar to one used by the cryosphere community—along with a volcano space task group to maximize the utility of satellite data for volcano monitoring would be highly beneficial. Such a vision could facilitate (1) global coordination of satellite observations (as done for polar regions) for background monitoring and eruption response, (2) open data that can be rapidly distributed during crises, (3) communication tools and forums for discussion of satellite data, (4) integrated ground and satellite databases of unrest, and (5) global capacity building.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Complex vulnerabilities of the water and aquatic carbon cycles to permafrost thaw

The spatial distribution and depth of permafrost are changing in response to warming and landscape disturbance across northern Arctic and boreal regions. This alters the infiltration, flow, surface and subsurface distribution, and hydrologic connectivity of inland waters. Such changes in the water cycle consequently alter the source, transport, and biogeochemical cycling of aquatic carbon (C), its role in the production and emission of greenhouse gases, and C delivery to inland waters and the Arctic Ocean. Responses to permafrost thaw across heterogeneous boreal landscapes will be neither spatially uniform nor synchronous, thus giving rise to expressions of low to medium confidence in predicting hydrologic and aquatic C response despite very high confidence in projections of widespread near-surface permafrost disappearance as described in the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar Regions. Here, we describe the state of the science regarding mechanisms and factors that influence aquatic C and hydrologic responses to permafrost thaw. Through synthesis of recent topical field and modeling studies and evaluation of influential landscape characteristics, we present a framework for assessing vulnerabilities of northern permafrost landscapes to specific modes of thaw affecting local to regional hydrology and aquatic C biogeochemistry and transport. Lastly, we discuss scaling challenges relevant to model prediction of these impacts in heterogeneous permafrost landscapes.

Arctic↗
USGS2021

Digital elevation models: Terminology and definitions

Digital elevation models (DEMs) provide fundamental depictions of the three-dimensional shape of the Earth’s surface and are useful to a wide range of disciplines. Ideally, DEMs record the interface between the atmosphere and the lithosphere using a discrete two-dimensional grid, with complexities introduced by the intervening hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. The treatment of DEM surfaces, affected by these intervening spheres, depends on their intended use, and the characteristics of the sensors that were used to create them. DEM is a general term, and more specific terms such as digital surface model (DSM) or digital terrain model (DTM) record the treatment of the intermediate surfaces. Several global DEMs generated with optical (visible and near-infrared) sensors and synthetic aperture radar (SAR), as well as single/multi-beam sonars and products of satellite altimetry, share the common characteristic of a georectified, gridded storage structure. Nevertheless, not all DEMs share the same vertical datum, not all use the same convention for the area on the ground represented by each pixel in the DEM, and some of them have variable data spacings depending on the latitude. This paper highlights the importance of knowing, understanding and reflecting on the sensor and DEM characteristics and consolidates terminology and definitions of key concepts to facilitate a common understanding among the growing community of DEM users, who do not necessarily share the same background.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2021

The Mars Orbiter for Resources, Ices, and Environments (MORIE) science goals and instrument trades in radar, imaging, and spectroscopy

The Mars Orbiter for Resources, Ices, and Environments (MORIE) was selected as one of NASA's 2019 Planetary Mission Concept Studies. The mission builds upon recent discoveries and current knowledge gaps linked to two primary scientific questions: (1) when did elements of the cryosphere form and how are ice deposits linked to current, recent, and ancient climate, and (2) how does the crust record the evolution of surface environments and their transition through time? Addressing these questions has emerged in numerous recent reports as a high priority in investigating the evolution of Mars as a habitable world. A subsidiary goal of the mission concept is to provide information relevant to the eventual human exploration of Mars, specifically helping to locate and quantify near-surface water ice and hydrated mineral resources. The proposed instrument suite includes polarimetric synthetic aperture radar imaging, radar sounding, high-resolution visible and infrared imaging, both short-wave and thermal-infrared spectroscopy, and multichannel wide-angle imaging. MORIE would provide novel measurements of Mars expected to lead to significant new discoveries by the first radar imaging from orbit, radar sounding directly over the poles, and mineral mapping at spatial scales that will unravel geologic sequence stratigraphy through time. The final report of the mission concept provides details on the spacecraft, orbital design, technological maturity, results from systems-level integration studies, and costs. This article is intended to expand upon the science motivation for the mission, the measurement goals and objectives, and the instrument trade space that was examined in detail during the concept study.

The Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS2021

Past, present, and future of Mars Polar Science: Outcomes and outlook from the 7th International Conference on Mars Polar Science and Exploration

Mars Polar Science is a subfield of Mars science that encompasses all studies of the cryosphere of Mars and its interaction with the Martian environment. Every 4 yr, the community of scientists dedicated to this subfield meets to discuss new findings and debate open issues in the International Conference on Mars Polar Science and Exploration (ICMPSE). This paper summarizes the proceedings of the seventh ICMPSE and the progress made since the sixth edition. We highlight the most important advances and present the most salient open questions in the field today, as discussed and agreed upon by the participants of the conference. We also feature agreed-upon suggestions for future methods, measurements, instruments, and missions that would be essential to answering the main open questions presented. This work is thus an overview of the current status of Mars Polar Science and is intended to serve as a road map for the direction of the field during the next 4 yr and beyond, helping to shape its contribution within the larger context of planetary science and exploration.

The Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS2025

Refined mapping of subsurface water ice on Mars to support future missions

Mars has an extensive yet poorly understood cryosphere. Nevertheless, both direct and indirect evidence indicates extensive buried ice across the midlatitudes, including locations where it is presently unstable. While much progress has been made in exploring the processes responsible for ice deposition and preservation during recent climatic fluctuations, a global assessment of the multiple ice reservoirs remains elusive. Motivated by science and the need to find suitable human landing sites, the Mars Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) project has developed techniques to map out buried ice. Through integration of all appropriate orbital data sets, the SWIM project produces ∼3 km pixel −1 ice consistency maps over depth ranges of 0–1 m, 1–5 m, and >5 m. In concert with other studies, prior SWIM phases have recognized the uncertainty in our understanding of the geographic and vertical distribution of ice, especially between depths of 1 m and 10 m, creating a push for new ice-prospecting orbital missions, such as the International Mars Ice Mapper mission concept. Here we document the latest SWIM phase, which provides notional targeting maps of the lowest-latitude ice for future missions via a significant improvement in the geomorphic component of our work. The new mapping incorporates both an enhancement in our mapping of geomorphic features and surveys of thermal contraction crack polygons. Our results demonstrate the highly variable nature of the spatial distribution of the shallowest ground ice, with the most equatorward excursions occurring below 30° latitude N/S, locations thought to be out of equilibrium with the current climate.

The Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS2003

Oceans on Mars: An assessment of the observational evidence and possible fate

If the large Late Hesperian outflow channels were eroded by extensive floods, as appears likely, then large bodies of water must have once occupied the northern plains during that period. Previous estimates of the sizes of bodies of water in the northern lowlands range up to 3 ?? 108 km3. Several contacts have been previously mapped around the edges of the northern plains and interpreted to be shorelines remaining from these former standing bodies of water. We examine the elevations and geologic relations along these contacts in detail and find little support for their interpretation as shorelines. Some contacts are clearly of volcanic origin, and all have significant variations in elevation. Better support for the former presence of water over large parts of the northern plains is provided by the Vastitas Borealis Formation (VBF). Most of the post-Noachian fill within the northern basin is ridged plains of Lower Hesperian age, interpreted to be volcanic in origin. Overlying the ridged plains is the VBF, a thin veneer of material of Upper Hesperian age. The VBF may have been deposited from large floods. Support for this interpretation is the similarity in age between the outflow channels and the VBF, the presence of the VBF at the lower ends of the outflow channels, and identification of numerous features in the outcrop areas of the VBF that are suggestive of basal melting of an ice sheet. To cover all the area over which the VBF is exposed would require ???2.3 ?? 107 km3 of water. Spread over the entire surface of Mars, this volume is equal to a global layer (global equivalent layer, or GEL) ???156 m deep. We find no support for the larger estimates of ocean volumes that range up to 3 ?? 108 km3 and which imply comparable amounts of water per unit area as are currently present on the surface of the Earth. Under present climatic conditions on Mars an ocean would freeze in a geologically short time period (???104 years), then would sublimate away at rates strongly dependent on the presence or absence of debris on the ice surface. The present VBF is interpreted as a sublimation residue from the ponded outflow channel effluents. The fate of a volume of water thought to have been emplaced by the outflow channels (???2.3 ?? 107 km3) is largely accounted for by the presence of other existing reservoirs on the planet. An approximately 20-30 m GEL of water is estimated to be in the present polar caps, and a 50 m GEL may have escaped to space since the Hesperian, leaving ???80 m GEL unaccounted for. This amount may be partly trapped in other volatile-rich deposits on the surface, and a significant amount could have reentered the groundwater system by south polar basal melting and been progressively cold-trapped at the base of a growing cryosphere. On the basis of our assessment of the Hesperian-aged deposits, we predict that testing of the Clifford and Parker [2001] hypothesis that a Noachian-aged ocean covered up to one third of the surface of Mars will be made very difficult by the enhanced degradation rates in the Noachian and subsequent geological events in the northern lowlands.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗