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[Book review] The Eastern Screech Owl: Life History, Ecology and Behavior in the Suburbs and Countryside, by Frederick Gehlback

Review of: Eastern Screech Owl: Life History, Ecology, and Behavior in the Suburbs and Countryside. Frederick R. Gehlbach. Issue 16; Issue 2008 of W. L. Moody Jr. Natural History Series. Texas A&M University Press; 1st edition (November 1994). ISBN: 0890966095. For ornithologists and ecologists alike, Fred Gehlbach's book promises to hold both interest and information value as a comprehensive study of the eastern screech owl (Otus asio hasbroucki). Gehlbach was intrigued with screech owls as a boy and encouraged as an undergraduate by William Hamilton, who underscored that in-depth studies of familiar backyard species can be as fascinating as those in exotic sites. Correspondence with another owl-aficionado, the late H. N. Southern, inspired the author's long-term study of screech owls in a woodland landscape in central Texas and led him to provide nest boxes to enhance his access and sample size. This book is based on observations over a 25-year period-beginning in 1967, with intensive study during an 11-year period (1976-1987) in Texas south of Waco, where Gehlbach teaches at Baylor University. The study represents observations on 659 screech owls, covering several generations of birds and entire lives of many individuals. Gehlbach compares screech owl nesting behavior in a rural versus suburban setting and includes chapters on food supplies and predation tactics; egg-laying, incubation, and parental behavior; vocalizations; and population structure and flux. He discusses why screech owls are widespread across the eastern half of North America and why they succeed among people in suburban environments, where they adapt as easily to mailboxes and porch columns as to natural tree cavities. The book mixes two approaches: on the one hand the dense style of a technical book in which the professional biologist can find information on many aspects of screech owl behavior, life history, and population, including tables, figures, summary statistics, results of statistical comparisons, and experimental tests of hypotheses. On the other hand, each chapter begins with and includes vivid visual images, personal experiences, and thoughtful reflections to draw in the general reader, bridging the interesting topic to the technical details and making the information accessible to a wider audience. The reader is impressed with Dr. Gehlbach's love of his subject, his devotion to long-term study, and his care in presenting the work to his fellow ornithologists, ecologists, and all those interested in wildlife and conservation. It will be a useful reference because of its wealth of information on all aspects of screech owl life history. It is well documented and, in addition to its 10 chapters, includes 10 appendices with information on types of food supplies, bird species that mob screech owls, a daily chronology of nestling development, and a selection of edited field notes to provide background for each chapter. The book is thoroughly referenced and indexed. The Eastern Screech Owl will be read with interest by those with an interest in long-term, in-depth studies and those who love charming stories about remarkable birds with strong personalities and interesting behavior.

Wildlife Review↗

Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

Condor↗

Comparison of deep structure along three transects of the western North American continental margin

Similarities in geology and potential field data that have in the past been noted among the regions of southern Alaska, southern Vancouver Island, and central California are now seen to be accompanied by similarities in deep crustal structure. A number of tectonic elements have been identified in the deep structure along transects in these three regions, although not all elements are present along each transect. These elements are (A) an actively subducting oceanic plate and (B) an overriding continental plate that consists of (1) a Cenozoic accretionary prism, (2) a Mesozoic accretionary prism, (3) a backstop to the Mesozoic prism, (4) a tectonically underplated body of oceanic rocks, and (5) a crustal root. The Mesozoic prism is in some cases an underthrust body (type 2a) but in other cases forms the principal component of a landward verging tectonic wedge (type 2b). The technically underplated body of oceanic rocks extends landward from the fault contact between the Cenozoic and Mesozoic prisms to a point beneath the backstop. The crustal root lies beneath the backstop and landward of the underplated body. All of these elements are interpreted to be present along the Alaskan and Vancouver Island transects. In Alaska the underplated body is interpreted to be fragments of the Kula plate; the same may be true at Vancouver Island. These two transects appear to differ in that, in Alaska, the Mesozoic prism, in one interpretation, is the principal component of a tectonic wedge (type 2b), whereas at Vancouver Island, it is an underthrust body (type 2a). Along the central California transect, active subduction is no longer taking place, and the San Andreas fault has removed the Cenozoic prism from this region of the North American plate. On the North American plate (i.e., east of the San Andreas fault), the Mesozoic prism, interpreted as the main component of a tectonic wedge (type 2b), and the backstop to the Mesozoic prism are present. There is, however, no clear evidence of tectonically underplated oceanic rocks, and the crust is thin (no root). In both Alaska and Vancouver Island, the Mesozoic prisms above the underplated bodies experienced low-pressure/high-temperature metamorphism at about the time of tectonic underplating; no such metamorphism is currently exposed in California. The metamorphism may have been caused by the underplating of young, hot oceanic crust, or, alternatively, by subduction of an oceanic ridge. The presence of a tectonic wedge (type 2b) in Alaska and California and the absence of such a wedge at Vancouver Island could arise either from the fact that in the former two locations the Mesozoic prisms were more voluminous, owing to either more rapid trench sedimentation or more rapid convergence, or to the possibility that at the latter location the Mesozoic prism was juxtaposed with the backstop primarily by strike-slip faulting.

Alaska, California↗

Annotated bibliography on artificial recharge of ground water, 1955-67

Artificial ground-water recharge has become more important as water use by agriculture, industry, and municipalities increases. Water management agencies are increasingly interested in potential use of recharge for pollution abatement, waste-water disposal, and re-use and reclamation of locally available supplies. Research projects and theoretical analyses of operational recharge systems show increased scientific emphasis on the practice. Overall ground-water basin management systems generally now contain considerations of artificial recharge, whether by direct or indirect methods. Artificial ground-water recharge is a means of conserving surface runoff for future use in places where it would otherwise be lost, of protecting ground-water basins from salt-water encroachment along coastal areas, and of storing and distributing imported water. The biblio-graphy emphasizes technology; however, annotations of articles on waste-water reclamation, ground-water management and ground-water basin management are included. Subjects closely related to artificial recharge, including colloidal flow through porous media, field or laboratory instrumentation, and waste disposal by deep well injection are included where they specifically relate to potential recharge problems. Where almost the same material has been published in several journals, all references are included on the assumption that some publications may be more readily available to interested persons than others. Other publications, especially those of foreign literature, provided abstracts that were used freely as time limitations precluded obtaining and annotating all materials. Abstracts taken from published sources are noted. These are: "Abstracts of North American Geology," U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey; "Abstracts of Recent Published Material on Foil and Water Conservation," ARS-41 series, Agricultural F.esearch Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; "Water and1 Water Engineering," published by Fuel and Metallurgical Journals, Ltd., London, England; "Journal of Geophysical Research," American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.; "American Society of Civil Engineers Transactions," New York; "Selected Bibliography of Hydrology, United Kingdom, for the Years 1955-59," International Association of Scientific Hydrology; "Water Wells, an Annotated Bibliography," California University Water Resources Center Archives Report 13; "Re-use of Effluent in the Future With an Annotated Bibliography," by G. A. Whetstone, Texas Water Development Board Report 8, Austin, Tex.; "Journal of Water Pollution Control Federation," Washington, D.C.; and "A List of Selected Technical References on Artificial Recharge of Ground-Water Reservoirs," compiled by Roy W. Graves, Tulsa University, Information Services Department, Tulsa, Okla. Other notations are self-explanatory, and initials are those of the authors (DCS, DJG, WK). An unpublished compilation of recharge references by Arnon Arad sponsored by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization during a training period with the U.S. Geological Survey was also used. The bibliography is arranged alphabetically by author. Where an author has more than one publication, the arrangement is chronological; where an author has more than one publication in a given year, a, b, c, . . . are added. The indexing is by subject and geographic location. Each article was assigned the key words or phrases to best characterize its contents. Units of measure are as they were in the original article; abbreviations retained are generally those in common use such as mg/1 (milligrams per liter), ppm (parts per million), gpm (gallons per minute), km (kilometers), m (meters), cu m per hr (cubic meters p^r hour), cfs (cubic feet per second), me/1 (milliequivalents per liter), psi (pounds per square inch), BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), sq m (square meters), gpd (gallons per day), and mgd (million gallons per day). The bibliography was prepared because of the worldwide interest in the field of artificial recharge and the need for a single source of references to the literature published since 1954. The work is a sequel to the "Annotated Bibliography on Artificial Recharge of Ground Water Through 1954," by D. K. Todd, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1477, published in 1959.

Water Supply Paper↗

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Use of U.S. Geological Survey earth-science products by selected regional agencies in the San Francisco Bay region, California

An inventory of the use of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) products in studies, plans, implementation, and other planning activities was made for seven selected regional agencies in the San Francisco Bay region -- a region of over five million people. This inventory was designed to determine and document the use of over 100 earth-science products prepared as a part of the San Francisco Bay Region Environment and Resources Planning Study (SFBRS). The inventory showed that: (1) all seven agencies have staff members who are familiar with SFBRS products and make frequent use of them; (2) all seven agencies have prepared planning documents citing SFBRS products; (3) the types of planning applications most often indicated were water-quality and physical resources studies, potential site evaluation, and general reference; (4) almost 80 percent of the over 100 SFBRS products were used at least once, and eleven of the products were used 20 or more times each for various regional planning activities; and (5) at least 46 other USGS products were also used for various regional planning activities. During the inventory, over 50 regional agency. officials, employees, and consultants were interviewed and asked -- among other things -- to indicate any problems they had noted in the use of the SFBRS products, to suggest improvements, and to identify any additional earth-science information needed or desired. The responses showed that: (1) the scales commonly used for "work" maps were 1:62,500 or larger, and for "implementation" maps were 1:24,000 or larger; (2) two agencies have a geologist on their planning staff, others have staff members with training or experience in earth-science or engineering, and all had the benefit of geotechnical services from outside their agency; (3) all seven agencies experienced some problems in using the products, primarily because the scale was too small or the detail not great enough; (4) all seven agencies expressed interest in the topical interpretive reports in preparation and a need or desire for additional earth-science, engineering, or other related information; (5) six of the seven agencies suggested specific improvements to future products -- primarily larger scale or more detail and less technical or more interpretive information; and (6) all seven agencies received educational, advisory or review services from USGS personnel. Fifteen selected examples of the application of SFBRS products to various regional planning activities are discussed and illustrated. These examples include six planning studies, five plans, two implementation activities, and two other types of activities. From the inventory and responses to the interviews, it is concluded that the selected regional agencies in the bay region are familiar with, make frequent use of, and will continue to use SFBRS products for a wide range of regional planning activities. Suggestions to ensure more effective use of earth-science information in the future include: (1) monitoring and analyzing new State and Federal laws or regulations and emerging critical issues so as to anticipate and respond to regional earth-science information needs; (2) creating a users advisory committee to help identify critical issues and needs; (3) providing engineering interpretations and land- and water-use capability ratings to make earth-science information more readily usable; (4) giving priority to areas impacted by development; (5) providing earth-science information at the larger scale and greater detail commonly used and needed by regional agencies; (6) releasing earth-science information faster and according to a formal distribution pattern; and (7) providing educational, advisory, and review services in connection with any earth-science information designed for planners and decisionmakers.

California↗

Distribution of yellow crazy ants (Anoplolepis gracilipes) and notes on other ant species at Wake Atoll, 6-21 October, 2023

Wake Atoll, located in the central Pacific Ocean, is a tropical coral atoll comprised of three islands totaling 696 ha of emergent land. Wake Atoll supports at least 17 species of non-native ants, but one species, the yellow crazy ant ( Anoplolepis gracilipes ), is especially harmful to ecosystems, including seabirds, which are federally protected species and nest throughout Wake Atoll. Our objective was to map the distribution of yellow crazy ants (YCA) across Wake Atoll to provide U.S. Air Force managers with information that could inform an eradication strategy for this species. In addition, we documented the presence of other ant species identified during our survey. We used a 50 x 50-m cell-based sampling grid to survey for YCA and other ant species. YCA were widespread across the atoll, occupying all three islands and were detected in 566 of the 3,675 (15.4%) cells surveyed, covering an area of about 142 ha. The highest proportion of cells containing YCA was on Wilkes Island (99 of 400 cells or 24.8%), followed by Wake Island (395 of 2,760 cells or 14.3%) and Peale Island (72 of 518 cells or 14.0%). YCA detections on Wilkes Island were restricted to Wilkes South (99 of 202 cells or 49.0%); no YCA were found on Wilkes North, an important area that supports the most diverse assemblage of nesting seabirds on Wake Atoll. Based on technologies developed to eradicate YCA from Johnston Atoll and elsewhere, eradicating YCA from Wake Atoll appears technically feasible. The occurrence of discrete populations (i.e., clusters of occupied cells separated from other clusters of occupied cells) within and among islands could allow a stepwise strategy where the short-term outcome of the treatment of one population is independent of the outcome of another treatment. Without action, the high-density YCA population on Wilkes South could breach the narrow (~50 m), sometimes dry, channel separating Wilkes North and South, posing a serious threat to nesting seabirds present on Wilkes North. Eradicating YCA from Wilkes South would create a buffer from YCA and reduce the threat of northward movement of YCA. We also detected 12 ant species other than YCA during our survey, including Lepisiota frauenfeldi , a new record for the atoll.

Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report↗

Scientific monitoring plan in support of the selected alternative of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan

Introduction The purpose of this document is to describe a strategy by which monitoring and research data in the natural and social sciences will be collected, analyzed, and provided to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), its bureaus, and to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) in support of implementation of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016a). The selected alternative identified in the LTEMP Record of Decision (ROD) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b) describes various data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation efforts to be conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), partner agencies, and cooperators that will inform decisions about operations of Glen Canyon Dam and management of downstream resources between 2017 and 2037, the performance period of the LTEMP. General data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation activities are described in this science plan, whereas specific monitoring and research activities and detailed study plans are to be described in the GCDAMP’s triennial work plans (TWPs) to be developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and GCMRC with input from partner agencies and cooperators during the LTEMP period, which are to be reviewed and recommended by the GCDAMP and approved by the Secretary of the Interior. The GCDAMP consists of several components, the primary committee being the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). This Federal advisory committee is composed of 25 agencies and stakeholder groups and is chaired by the Secretary of the Interior’s designee. The AMWG makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning operations of Glen Canyon Dam and other experimental management actions that are intended to fulfill some obligations of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992. The Technical Work Group (TWG) is a subcommittee of the AMWG and provides technical advice to the AMWG. It is composed of technical and science representatives from the same agencies and stakeholder groups who serve on the AMWG. GCMRC is the primary science provider to the GCDAMP and also coordinates many aspects of the science performed by cooperators and partner agencies. The Science Advisors Program provides independent science reviews and advice at the request of the GCDAMP. The plan proposed here necessarily depends on (1) the protocol for decision-making and the requirements for scientific data reporting described in the LTEMP ROD, (2) the priorities of the GCDAMP as directed by the LTEMP ROD (see Department of the Interior, 2016b, section 6.1), (3) the priorities for monitoring and research in the conservation measures section of the Biological Opinion for the LTEMP (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b, LTEMP ROD attachment E), (4) the priorities for resource management and information needs established by Federal and State resource-management agencies within the GCDAMP, (5) scientific understanding about the linkage between the status of those resources and operations of Glen Canyon Dam, and (6) the need to resolve existing scientific uncertainties about the linkage between dam operations and the condition of resources. We note that resource-management prioritization is fundamentally a policy decision charged specifically to DOI for the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, as outlined most recently in the LTEMP ROD, and is not the responsibility of the GCMRC. However, it is the responsibility of the GCMRC to describe the nature of scientific understanding, the nature of scientific uncertainty, and the risk of making resourcemanagement decisions in the face of existing scientific uncertainty. The goals of science activities in the next 20 years are to inform operational decisions regarding Glen Canyon Dam operations described in the LTEMP ROD, resolve remaining scientific uncertainties, and to monitor resource trends that are affected entirely, or in part, by dam operations.

Open-File Report↗

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗

California spotted owls

California spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis occidentalis ) are habitat specialists that are strongly associated with late-successional forests. For nesting and roosting, they require large trees and snags embedded in a stand with a complex forest structure (Blakesley et al. 2005, Gutiérrez et al. 1992, Verner et al. 1992b). In mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, California spotted owls typically nest and roost in stands with high canopy closure (≥75 percent) [Note: when citing studies, we use terminology consistent with Jennings et al. (1999), however, not all studies properly distinguish between canopy cover and closure and often use the terms interchangeably (see chapter 14 for clarification)] and an abundance of large trees (>24 in (60 cm) diameter at breast height [d.b.h.]) (Bias and Gutiérrez 1992, Gutiérrez et al. 1992, LaHaye et al. 1997, Moen and Gutiérrez 1997, Verner et al. 1992a). The California spotted owl guidelines (Verner et al. 1992b) effectively summarized much of the information about nesting and roosting habitat. Since that report, research on the California spotted owl has continued with much of the new information concentrated in five areas: population trends, barred owl ( Strix varia ) invasion, climate effects, foraging habitat, and owl response to fire.

California↗

Performance of the GenEst Mortality Estimator Compared to The Huso and Shoenfeld Estimators

The impacts of wind power development on bat and bird populations are commonly assessed by estimating the number of fatalities at wind power facilities through post-construction monitoring (PCM) studies. Standard methodology involves periodic carcass searches on plots beneath turbines (Strickland et al. 2011, US Fish and Wildlife Service 2012). The resulting counts are adjusted to compensate for bias due to imperfect carcass detection by searchers, removal of carcasses by scavengers or other processes (Korner-Nievergelt et al. 2011), and carcasses that may have fallen outside of searched areas. To account for the bias in counts due to imperfect detection and carcass removal, investigators typically conduct bias trial experiments to inform models of carcass detection probability. Many different estimators have been proposed that combine information about the bias trial experiments to estimate a detection probability for carcasses (g) and ultimately obtain an estimate of total mortality (M). The two estimators that have seen the most widespread use in North America recently are the Huso (Huso 2011, Huso et al. 2012) and Shoenfeld (Shoenfeld 2004; also called the Erickson estimator) estimators. GenEst (Dalthorp et al. 2018a, 2018b, 2018c) is the newest statistical estimator to become available and was designed to improve upon the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators by generalizing the key assumptions in both, and to improve comparability among new PCM studies. In addition to relaxing some of the assumptions inherent to the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators, GenEst uses a parametric bootstrap applied to a novel approach to variance estimation (Madsen et al. 2019). The current study was undertaken to document the performance of GenEst relative to the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators. We took a simulation approach to the study because simulation data provides the basis to compare mortality estimators under conditions where the “truth” is known. The estimators were compared on three metrics: 1) bias—the tendency of an estimator to over- or under-estimate actual mortality, 2) precision—the ability of an estimator to constrain an estimate to a narrow range (measured here as the width of a 90% confidence interval [CI] around the point estimate divided by the true, known mortality), and 3) CI coverage—the probability a CI with a specified level of confidence actually includes the true level of mortality. Although our simulations were conceived and designed—and are discussed—with respect to wind power facilities, it is important to note that the estimators and results discussed here are relevant to any post-construction fatality monitoring study that may occur (such as at solar facilities) where detection is imperfect. Although our study treats the problem of mortality estimation when detection is imperfect, it is also important to note that all of the estimators considered here are Horvitz-Thompson (Horvitz and Thompson 1952) style estimators, that is, none are designed to estimate the mortality of rare species as might be necessary under an Incidental Take Permit. The Evidence of Absence estimator (Dalthorp et al. 2017) is still the most appropriate statistical tool for rare event estimation. The simulations cover a broad range of conditions that may occur in field studies and complete results are presented without commentary in the appendix. The main body of this report does not provide a comprehensive treatment of our results; rather, we try to identify some of the more important differences among the estimators and some conditions under which reliable mortality estimates are especially challenging.

AWWI Technical Report↗

Monitoring marine eruptions

Introduction Submarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and provides recommendations for monitoring volcanoes fully or partly in marine environments to meet the capabilities described in other chapters of this volume. The United States and its territories host dozens of submarine volcanoes with most (around 60) in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Approximately 20 of the Northern Mariana Islands submarine volcanoes are known to be hydrothermally active, and 10 have confirmed eruptions since the 1950s (for example, Baker and others, 2008; Tepp and others, 2019a). Nine of those volcanoes were considered by the National Volcanic Threat Assessment (Ewert and others, 2018) to have a combination of eruptive type and summit depth that poses a higher risk of hazardous eruptions, although only one was listed as a moderate (level 3) threat. Other notable submarine volcanoes of interest to the United States that have historically erupted are Axial Seamount off the Washington State coast, Kamaʻehuakanaloa in Hawaiʻi, and Vailuluʻu seamount in American Samoa. All of these, however, have a low risk of hazards because of their depth (greater than 600 meters below sea level) and eruptive type and so are not included in the National Volcanic Threat Assessment. In addition to submarine volcanoes, the submerged flanks of island volcanoes can also be a source of hazardous submarine eruptions—for example, the 1877 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, in Kealakekua Bay (Wanless and others, 2006). The most notable submarine eruption in recent times was the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in Tonga, which was one of the largest eruptions on Earth in the past 100 years. It created a massive volcanic plume, unprecedented shock waves, and far-reaching tsunami (Lynett and others, 2022). Other recent submarine eruptions in the Pacific Ocean Basin have produced subaerial plumes that reached aircraft heights (Carey and others, 2014) and large pumice rafts that can affect marine traffic and harbors (for example, Jutzeler and others, 2014; Kornei, 2019). These examples illustrate the potential hazards of major submarine eruptions. Yet, submarine volcanoes are largely unmonitored, and many eruptions occur that are unnoticed or only identified hours or days afterward. Within U.S. territory, submarine volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands have been known to produce eruptive activity that can affect society. Reports from fishermen and other marine vessels in the Northern Mariana Islands have noted underwater explosions, sea-surface discoloration, and bubbling water, all of which are known to be signs of submarine volcanic activity. South Sarigan seamount, located about 160 kilometers (km) north of Saipan, erupted in 2010 from greater than 150 meters below the sea surface, resulting in a gas and ash plume that reached more than 11.9 km into the atmosphere (for example, Searcy, 2013; Embley and others, 2014), high enough to affect international air traffic. Precursory and co-eruptive seismicity was detected on the regional Northern Mariana Islands seismic network (Searcy, 2013) and on global monitoring instruments (Green and others, 2013). Monitoring of submarine volcanoes is best accomplished with marine-based instrumentation, which is also useful for monitoring small island volcanoes that may not have the land area necessary for comprehensive subaerial monitoring. The primary marine-based instrumentation used for submarine volcanoes includes ocean-bottom pressure sensors to assess sea-floor deformation, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) to detect seismicity, and both moored and ocean-bottom hydrophones to detect submarine explosions. Other sensors offer important monitoring data, such as turbidity, temperature, and chemistry of hydrothermal emissions. Marine-based instruments are typically deployed in campaign-style networks with no real-time telemetry owing to cost considerations and technical limitations. However, when necessary, marine instruments can be operated in real time using cables to transmit data to land-based facilities; other technologies for this purpose are in use or in development, such as acoustic transmission from the instrument to a moored buoy (Matsumoto and others, 2016) and a winch-based system with a satellite antenna that is part of the instrument mooring (Matsumoto and others, 2019). Emerging technologies for marine-based monitoring may be considered as part of a future monitoring plan. These technologies include ocean gliders and floats with on-board hydrophones that have been used to record earthquakes and submarine eruptions (for example, Matsumoto and others, 2013; Sukhovich and others, 2015) and fiber-optic cables that have been used as strainmeters to detect earthquakes (for example, Marra and others, 2018; Lindsey and others, 2019). Land-based instruments and satellites can also provide some capability for monitoring submarine volcanoes, but they provide more limited observations than marine-based instrumentation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Seventy-five years of science—The U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Fisheries Research Center

As of January 2010, 75 years have elapsed since Dr. Frederic Fish initiated the pioneering research program that would evolve into today’s Western Fisheries Research Center (WFRC). Fish began his research working alone in the basement of the recently opened Fisheries Biological Laboratory on Lake Union in Seattle, Washington. WFRC’s research began under the aegis of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and ends its first 75 years as part of the U.S. Geological Survey with a staff of more than 150 biologists and support personnel and a heritage of fundamental research that has made important contributions to our understanding of the biology and ecology of the economically important fish and fish populations of the Nation. Although the current staff may rarely stop to think about it, WFRC’s antecedents extend many years into the past and are intimately involved with the history of fisheries conservation in the Western United States. Thus, WFRC Director Lyman Thorsteinson asked me to write the story of this laboratory “while there are still a few of you around who were here for some of the earlier years” to document the rich history and culture of WFRC by recognizing its many famous scientists and their achievements. This historyalso would help document WFRC’s research ‘footprint’ in the Western United States and its strategic directions. Center Director Thorsteinson concluded that WFRC’s heritage told by an emeritus scientist also would add a texture of legitimacy based on personal knowledge that will all-to-soon be lost to the WFRC and to the USGS. The WFRC story is important for the future as well as for historical reasons. It describes how we got to the place we are today by documenting the origin, original mission, and our evolving role in response to the constantly changing technical information requirements of new environmental legislation and organizational decision-making. The WFRC research program owes its existence to the policy requirements of Federal conservation legislation originating with the construction of Grand Coulee Dam in 1933. The research program was shaped by laws enacted in subsequent years such as the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (1972), National Environmental Policy Act (1973), Endangered Species Act (1974), and Northwest Power Planning Act (1980), to name only a few. The WFRC has not been constrained by direct management or regulatory responsibility for a particular fishery (such as providing sustainable catch limits data to a resource management structure). Thus, WFRC has been able to concentrate on scientific pursuits and information needs required by contemporary environmental legislation. Over the years, we have pioneered in several important areas of fisheries research including the diagnoses and control of diseases in economically important fish, effects of environmental alterations on the physiological quality and survival of Pacific salmon released from federal mitigation hatcheries, applications in biotelemetry, and the bioenergetics of predator-prey interactions in the Columbia River. The WFRC of today is a widely distributed organization in the Western United States. Knowledge of the historical connections and accomplishments of our predecessors is important beyond the sense of pride and unity it instills in the WFRC family of today. For example, a discerning reader will note the evolution of WFRC’s research from a single disciplinary focus (early era—hatchery disease problems), to multiple disciplines (middle to late era—species, populations, habitats; threatened and endangered species), to the present era (multidisciplinary and with increasing process focus). For the benefit of the current WFRC staff, more emphasis has been placed on the early years rather than on the present day because people are quite naturally more familiar with the recent past than with the research done during the first decades of WFRC’s existence. By every rational measure, the WFRC has evolved into a fisheries research organization well positioned to provide the biological information needed to support the continued conservation and management of our Nation’s living aquatic natural resources. The high standard of excellence that connects WFRC’s past to our present research program provides a firm foundation on which to base the work yet to be done. In another 75 years, WFRC will undoubtedly be a very different place than it is today, but its evolution will be forever rooted in the story of the research and of the people related here. More about the diverse fisheries research projects WFRC scientists are conducting today is available at WFRC’s website: http://wfrc.usgs.gov/.

Washington↗

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗

Species of conservation concern and environmental stressors: Local regional and global effects

Species conservation has traditionally been based on individual species within the context of their requisite habitat, which is generally defined as the communities and ecosystems deemed necessary for their presence. Conservation decisions are hampered by the fact that environmental stressors that poetically threaten the persistence of species can operate at organizational levels larger than the habitat or home range of a focal species. Resource managers must therefore simultaneously consider local, regional, and/or global scale stressors for effective conservation and management of species of concern. The wide ranging effects associated with global stressors such as climate change may exceed or exacerbate the effects of local or regional stressors, they still need to understand the direct and interactive effects of global stressors and ultimately how they affect the lands they manage. Conservation of species in southern Nevada is further complication by the fact that the region includes one of the largest and fastest growing urban centers in North America. To accomplish the goal of species conservation, resource managers must identify actionable management options that mitigate the effects of local and regional stressor in the context of the effects of global stressors that are beyond their control. Species conservation is typically focused on a subset often referred to as species of conservation concern that have either demonstrated considerable decline or are naturally rare or have limited distributions. Stressors can directly and indirectly impact species in a variety of ways and through a diversity of mechanisms. Some stressors have been more intense in the past (e.g., livestock grazing) whereas other are now only emerging as new stressors (e.g., solar energy development, climate change). The primary stressors affecting southern Nevada ecosystems are listed in table 2.1 and reviewed in detail in Chapter 2. This chapter addresses Dub-goal 1.4 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to sustain and enhance southern Nevada's biotic communities to preserve biodiversity wand maintain viable populations (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). We provide numerous examples of how stressors affect the range and/or habitat of select species of conservation concern. It is important to note that the species or groups discussed in this chapter by no means represent a comprehensive treatment of all species of conservation concern listed in Table 1.2 (Chapter 1). Rather, several species were chosen as examples for each southern Nevada ecosystem type to illustrate how stressors and linkages among them can affect species of conservation concern, keeping in mind that many of the species considered here are found in more than one ecosystem type. In addition, the stressors that may impact a species in one ecosystem may not be those that affect it in another ecosystem and different species in the same ecosystem may not be affected by the same suite of stressors. Finally, at the start of each ecosystem section we summarize key resource concerns, species used as examples, key stressors, and potential synergistic effects of those stressors relative to the species example.

Nevada↗

Lower Eastern Shore Tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2023

The Lower Eastern Shore Tributary Summary outlines change over time according to a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period 1985 – 2023, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (July-September) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as winddriven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Lower Eastern Shore. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who use tidal water quality to inform management decisions, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. The Tributary Summary documents are sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. They help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water-quality changes over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Comment on Spracklandus Hoser, 2009 (Reptilia, Serpentes, ELAPIDAE): request for confirmation of availability of the generic name and for the nomenclatural validation of the journal in which it was published (Case 3601; BZN 70:234–237; 71:30–38; 133-135,181-182 ,252-253)

In Case 3601 Raymond Hoser has asked the Commission to validate for the purposes of nomenclature the name Spracklandus Hoser, 2009, and ‘the journal in which it was published,’ issue 7 of the Australasian Journal of Herpetology (AJH). We note that the entire run of AJH has been written, edited, and published solely by Hoser. Although his requests to the Commission were presented as narrow and, in his words, ‘routine matters,’ we are convinced that they represent an important tipping-point with broad implications of major concern for zoological taxonomy and nomenclature as a whole and, by extension, the greater scientific community. Since Hoser’s actions and works have failed to follow scientific best practices (e.g. Turtle Taxonomy Working Group, 2007, 2014; Kaiser et al., 2013; Kaiser, 2014) and both the Commission’s general Recommendations and Code of Ethics in Appendix A, the global herpetological community has widely rejected his taxonomic decisions and resultant nomenclature. This has unfortunately caused a confusing dual nomenclature to develop in the herpetological community, with most boycotting or ignoring Hoser’s 700+ new names coined in the AJH, while he and a few personal followers actively promote their usage. We believe that suppression of the name Spracklandus , and all issues of AJH, is the only effective way to bring this contentious and confusing issue to resolution. The plenary power available under Article 81.1 of the Code exist specifically to allow the Commission to make rulings in individual cases that disturb stability and cause confusion, whether the works are Code-compliant or not. We maintain that it is in the interest of nomenclatural stability, not only for herpetology, but for all of zoological taxonomy, that the plenary power be invoked to declare the works in AJH unavailable, regardless of any narrow interpretation of their technical Code-compliance. We present our arguments for rejection of the validity of AJH in the following commentary. In view of the wide-reaching implications of this case for all of zoology, and reflecting the deep and broad-based community concern over these issues, our contributing authors include 70 global scientific leaders and accomplished amateurs from a wide variety of zoological disciplines.

Bulletin of Zoological Nomenclature↗

James Tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2021

The James Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period 1985 – 2021 and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring and summer (June, July, August) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind-driven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the James River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

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