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USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

USGS2026

Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs) from separate breeding sites subdivides the Prairie Pothole Region in space and time during southbound migration

Some staging regions support multiple groups of the same migratory species, each of which may use the region differently. Characterizing the ways, in which separate groups use such regions can therefore help to identify vulnerabilities during this sensitive period of the annual cycle. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a massive wetland complex in the northern Great Plains of North America used by ∼11 million shorebirds during migration. The PPR has been heavily modified by agriculture and is experiencing varied effects of global climate change, threatening the health of the shorebirds that rely on it. Here, we used 6 seasons of southbound tracking data of Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs)—a long-distance migratory shorebird species with an estimated population decline of 63% over the last 4 decades—from 9 sites across their breeding range to explore differences in migratory behavior within this important staging region. We found that 75% of tracked individuals used the region during southbound migration, and T. flavipes from different breeding sites detoured 110–875 km from their most direct migratory route to access the PPR. Individuals that arrived later stayed longer and made more stops within the region than those that arrived early. Individuals originating from different breeding sites also displayed spatial and temporal segregation within the region: T. flavipes from southwest and central Alaska relied heavily on the northwestern PPR, while those from Canada used the central and southeastern portions of the PPR. Finally, timing of use varied among groups, but the southeastern PPR became increasingly important over the course of the southbound migratory window, as other wetlands likely dried out. Our study highlights the portions of the PPR of critical importance to migrating T. flavipes and the diversity of ways, in which different groups from within the same species can use a single staging region.

Alaska, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Ontario, ↗

USGS2024

Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2025

Special issue "Effects of surface geology on seismic motion (ESG): General state-of-research"

To understand and predict the behaviors of strong ground motions incurred during devastating earthquakes, studies focused on the “effects of surface geology (ESG) on seismic motions” (following tradition, herein contracted as: “ESG”) have progressed steadily in the last three decades. These ESG studies typically involve in situ measurements of the wavefield and commonly apply both analytical and computational approaches. Concurrently, improvements in ESG related research can be readily attributed to the proliferation of openly accessible strong motion data, as well as advances in computational power. Nevertheless, there remain significant shortfalls in our understanding of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with the ESG as demonstrated by phenomena from recent deadly earthquake-related site effects. Thus, investigations toward addressing these deficiencies should be underscored in future earthquake related disaster mitigation efforts. This special issue of Earth, Planets, and Space (EPS) is dedicated to the ongoing efforts by the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) and the International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) that champion activities promoting studies related to the ESG.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2025

Geochemical monitoring of volcanic fluids in the twenty-first century

This chapter reviews the state-of-the-art of geochemical volcano monitoring techniques. We cover in-situ monitoring technologies that rely on sampling fluids (direct sampling) and on instrumental analysis of the composition of such fluids in real-time (remote sensing of volcanic fluids is covered elsewhere in this book). We first review key concepts and principles in the field, and then review the results of some selected case studies and applications. We cover the large variety of fluid categories emitted by volcanoes, in both the near-(crater fumaroles and lakes, and plumes) and far-(degassing soils, groundwaters) fields. Our aim is to demonstrate the utility of measuring the chemistry of fluids released by volcanoes, and how these can help characterize volcano unrest, and eventually the increased likelihood of eruption. We conclude with a brief discussion of current challenges and knowledge gaps, and on future directions in geochemical monitoring.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Lunar grid systems, coordinate systems, and map projections for the Artemis missions and lunar surface navigation

Foreward This document contains design specifications of a navigational standard for the Moon, including a Lunar Transverse Mercator system, a Lunar Polar Stereographic system, a Lunar Grid Reference System, and a unique coordinate structure, Artemis Condensed Coordinates, for Artemis mission navigation and lunar surface science. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis campaign seeks to place humans on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions. Early Artemis missions are heavily focused on the lunar south pole, which promises to return valuable data on the Moon’s geologic record, amongst other mission objectives. Coordinate systems in use today for the lunar south pole provides crew members on the surface neither an efficient nor intuitive means to communicate their position and orientation. A novel grid coordinate system, the Lunar Grid Reference System, is proposed to address these concerns for use in real-time extravehicular activity operations on the lunar surface. The many stakeholders involved in the Artemis missions will need a common system to communicate position and orientation while astronauts are operating on the lunar surface. To that end, Artemis crew members will need that system to be efficient and intuitive to promote efficient extravehicular activity timelines and reduce confusion. In the context of this document, these characteristics are addressed on the design of lunar coordinate systems: Efficient.—The number of characters required to communicate a location within a desired precision level in both local and global contexts, and how many steps are required for a recipient or sender to interpret a location. Intuitive.—How well the system aligns with human perceptual abilities, and whether the system yields distances that have the same relationship to actual lunar surface distance in all directions from the point where a person is located. Technological systems are currently being investigated to supplement the crew members’ ability to locate and orient themselves and other assets on the lunar surface; however, it is unlikely that those systems will be fully operational for the first few landed missions. Even with future positional aids, crew members will still need an efficient and intuitive means to communicate position and orientation. In addition, if technological systems fail, the crews will require land navigation skills and have maps available, thus providing further motivation for a crew-centric coordinate system. The contents of this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) document detail a comprehensive framework for standardizing lunar crewed surface navigation within NASA and outlines the protocols, methods, and designs necessary for achieving consistency and interoperability across relevant space mission teams and lunar surface navigators. Key components of this document include designs of map projections, projected coordinate reference systems (Lunar Transverse Mercator and Lunar Polar Stereographic systems), and a grid system (Lunar Grid Reference System and Artemis Condensed Coordinates) for the Moon. The work proposed in this document seeks to accomplish something similar to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) document SIG 0012 (NGA, 2014a), but for using grid systems for the Moon. This report incorporates initial feedback and input from NASA’s Artemis Geospatial Data Team, NASA’s Flight Operations Directorate, National Geodetic Survey, USGS Astrogeology Science Center, and NGA and is intended to serve as a resource for all involved with the Artemis missions, as well as for engineers designing and operating lunar infrastructure.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2026

Special issue “The 2024 M7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake and seismic swarm”

The 2024 Mw7.5 (M JMA 7.6) Noto Peninsula earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula, central Japan on January 1, 2024, causing widespread damage. This Mw7.5 mainshock, together with the prolonged seismic swarm that persisted in the northeastern Noto Peninsula since the end of 2020, of which the largest event was the 2023 M JMA 6.5 earthquake, constitutes one of the most significant seismic sequences in Japan in recent decades. The sequence provides a rare opportunity to investigate the complex interplay among swarm activity, fluid migration, fault geometry and distribution, and the preparatory conditions required for a large inland crustal earthquake. Motivated by this scientific context, this special issue brings together studies examining the sequence from diverse disciplinary perspectives, incorporating seismic, geodetic, and tsunami-related observations and modelling.

Noto Peninsula↗

USGS2026

Geochemical, mineralogical, and isotopic evidence for multi-stage genesis of the Hicks Dome REE + Y-HFSE-fluorite deposit, Illinois, USA

Hicks Dome hosts breccias enriched in rare earth elements (REE), Y, Th, F, Ba, Ti, Nb, and Be, alongside spatially associated lamprophyre dikes (ca. 271 Ma). Hicks Dome is located within the Illinois–Kentucky Fluorspar District, which hosts fluorite, Pb–Zn, and barite resources. This study investigates the genetic relationships between Hicks Dome mineralization in breccias, alkaline magmatism, and Illinois–Kentucky Fluorspar District mineralization. Lamprophyre dikes are light REE–enriched with chondrite-normalized abundances decreasing from La to Lu. The Host Breccia exhibits middle and heavy REE–enriched patterns that mirror those of the principal REE–Th host minerals, including fluorapatite, xenotime, and thorite. Textural evidence suggests recrystallization of phosphates, sulfates, and Ti–Nb oxides in the Host Breccia. U–Pb geochronology constrains multiple mineralizing events, with ages of 277 ± 18 Ma from low-Th apatite interpreted as main-stage mineralization, and 121.6 ± 9.7 Ma from high-Th apatite indicating later overprinting. O–H–C stable isotope data provide evidence for multiple stages of fluid-rock interaction and fluid mixing: (1) early magmatic fluids dissolved limestone country rock, (2) mixing between magmatic fluids and basinal brines led to main-stage mineralization in the Host Breccia, and (3) late-stage mineralization occurred following mixing of meteoric water and basinal brine. These results indicate that heavy REEs, high field strength elements, and fluorine precipitated proximal to its alkaline magmatic source because of fluid–rock interactions and fluid mixing. Subsequent fluid mixing drove late-stage recrystallization and additional fluorite formation, a process that may be similar to mineralization in the Illinois-Kentucky Fluorspar District.

Illinois↗

USGS2026

Global pegmatite-hosted lithium, cesium, and rubidium resources: A dataset for grade and tonnage modeling

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of potential undiscovered deposits can inform future mineral supply scenarios, but their accuracy is conditional on building robust grade and tonnage models of known deposits. This study presents an up-to-date global compilation and analysis of recently discovered and original, in-situ pegmatite-hosted Li, Cs, and Rb resources prior to historic production. Our analysis yields a median tonnage of 21.2 million tons (Mt) and grade of 1.12% Li 2 O, respectively, for global Li pegmatite deposits ( n = 73). The grades and tonnages of Li pegmatite resources vary depending on the age of the bedrock host domain, pegmatite crystallization age, and primary ore mineralogy. Lithium pegmatite resources hosted in Archean to transitional Archean-Paleoproterozoic domains have the largest median tonnage (29.8 Mt; n = 38), and those hosted in Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic domains have smaller median tonnages (6.5 Mt; n = 16). Cesium deposits where pollucite is the primary ore mineral have a bimodal grade distribution, with modes of 2.40 and 0.035 wt% Cs 2 O for high- and low-grade deposits, respectively, while Rb deposits are more unimodal with a median grade of 0.247 wt% Rb 2 O. Pegmatite-hosted Cs and Rb resources have median tonnages of 7.6 and 6.3 Mt, respectively. Covariation between ore mineralogy and the degree of crustal enrichment in pegmatite-hosted deposits is diagnostic of petrogenetic differences, including melt source characteristics, magma evolution, or variable degrees of volatile solubility. The Li pegmatite compilation is suitable for fitting robust numerical models to support quantitative assessments. More well-defined Rb and Cs pegmatite resources are required for quantitative assessments, but these data provide useful information about original in-place resources for framing supply discussions.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS2024

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada↗

USGS2026

The value of electronic tagging and tracking studies for understanding fish–hypoxia interactions

Objective Hypoxia (i.e., low dissolved oxygen availability) is a natural phenomenon but can also be induced by human activities (e.g., nutrient enrichment from runoff). Given that dissolved oxygen is essential for aquatic life, periods of hypoxia tend to have negative consequences (e.g., sublethal disturbances, mortality) for most fishes. Extensive laboratory research has documented hypoxia thresholds and physiological and behavioral outcomes for a variety of freshwater and marine fishes and there is also an extensive body of fieldwork assessing population-level responses (e.g., survival, distribution). Yet, studying how individual fish respond to hypoxia in the wild has proved challenging; electronic tagging and tracking tools (e.g., biotelemetry, biologging) have made it easier to study individual responses to hypoxia and complement other tools like hydroacoustics that tend to focus on population-level responses. Methods We review what has been learned from contemporary studies that employ electronic tagging and tracking tools to understand how fish respond to hypoxia in the wild. Topics explored include identifying and validating hypoxia thresholds, habitat compression, connectivity, mortality, physiological and bioenergetic consequences, and extreme weather conditions. We also consider what we have learned about evaluating various management plans for hypoxia and reflect on how electronic tags have also been used in aquaculture systems and in hybrid studies that combine laboratory and field research. We highlight fishes in Lake Erie as a research narrative to demonstrate how electronic tagging and tracking have markedly improved our understanding of a longstanding hypoxia issue. Results Our synthesis revealed that electronic tagging and tracking have provided critical information on how fish respond to hypoxia in the field, revealing complex trade-offs and compensatory mechanisms as well as cryptic hypoxia-induced mortality. Beyond just illuminating space use and mortality, tags equipped with various sensors are revealing how fish deal with hypoxia in real time in terms of physiology, bioenergetics, and behavior. Conclusions As electronic tagging and tracking methods experience further innovation and are increasingly applied to understand the effects of hypoxia on fish, we expect more unanticipated findings about the effects of hypoxia on fish in all aquatic ecosystems, which will strengthen our ability to manage and mitigate hypoxia. Combining tools and approaches (e.g., lab and field) is perhaps the best way to generate comprehensive understanding.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2026

Navigating uncertainty and competing objectives: Spring chinook salmon recovery in the upper Willamette river

Globally, anadromous fish populations are threatened with extinction due to multiple factors, including river impoundments that block migration, widespread alteration of physical habitat, temperature, and flow regimes, commercial and recreational harvest, changes in biological communities, and long-term climate trends. In this synthesis, we describe how physical and biological factors, policy and law, and public resource allocation affect management of spring-run Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Upper Willamette River (UWR), Oregon, USA. Efforts to restore salmon populations often involve trade-offs, for example, water management decisions must account for flood control, agricultural and municipal water use, and management of other species. UWR Chinook Salmon recovery efforts are also governed by multiple laws, policies, and action agencies that in some cases have incongruent objectives. Competing and conflicting objectives, combined with uncertainty regarding the outcomes of proposed management actions, create significant challenges for decision makers. Resource limitations, regulatory constraints, and incongruent objectives have created challenges for managers in the UWR, but opportunities exist for improved adaptive management and collaboration, which could build trust and engagement among stakeholders and ultimately support the successful implementation of decision tools. A suite of decision support tools that have been used in the Willamette River basin and elsewhere across the range of Pacific salmon have the potential to enhance decision processes. These tools can be effective when decision makers and stakeholders commit to long-term, collaborative utilization of the tools for decision making, and when available resources and regulatory environments are conducive to implementation and adaptive refinement of both the decision-support tools and management plans. The general biological and institutional principles discussed for UWR Chinook Salmon in this work apply more generally to populations of anadromous fishes across their range, especially to populations in highly regulated river systems.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Unlocking ecological insights from sub-seasonal visible-to-shortwave infrared imaging spectroscopy: The SHIFT campaign

We stand at the threshold of a transformative era in Earth observation, marked by space-borne visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers that promise consistent global observations of ecosystem function, phenology, and inter- and intra-annual change. However, the full value of repeat spectroscopy, the information embedded within different temporal scales, and the reliability of existing algorithms across diverse ecosystem types and vegetation phenophases have remained elusive due to the absence of suitable sub-seasonal spectroscopy data. In response, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign was initiated during late February 2022 in Santa Barbara County, California. SHIFT, designed to support NASA's SBG mission, addressed mission scoping, scientific advancement, applications development, and community building. This ambitious endeavor included weekly Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) imagery acquisitions for 13 weeks (spanning February 24 to May 29, 2022), accompanied by coordinated terrestrial vegetation and coastal aquatic data collection. We describe the rich datasets collected and illustrate how the complex sub-seasonal patterns of change can be linked to biological science and applications, surpassing insights from multispectral observations. Leveraging open-source processing methods and cloud-based analysis tools, the SHIFT campaign showcases the readiness of the scientific community to harness ecological insights from remotely sensed hyperspectral time series. We provide an overview of SHIFT's goals, data collections, preliminary results, and the collaborative efforts of early career scientists committed to unlocking the transformative potential of high-frequency time series data from space-borne VSWIR imaging spectrometers.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2025

Solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits of the southern Colorado Plateau, northwestern Arizona, USA

Some of the highest-grade uranium deposits in the United States occur in breccia pipes that formed by solution and collapse of sedimentary strata, which occur in the southern portion of the Colorado Plateau in northwestern Arizona. The host breccia pipes are up to 1200 m in vertical extent, average about 90 m in diameter, and can cross-cut strata from their base in the Mississippian Redwall Limestone to as stratigraphically high on some plateaus as the Triassic Chinle Formation. These uranium-base metal deposits are up to 600 m thick and formed within the breccia pipes where they transect the Permian Coconino Sandstone, Hermit Formation, and the Esplanade Sandstone. Of the hundreds of breccia pipes identified across this region, only a small percentage are known to contain mineralization. The main uranium ore mineral is uraninite that is intergrown with at least 20 base-metal sulfide minerals, which contribute Fe, Cu, Co, As, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Ag to the deposits. This study considered regional stratigraphy, sulfur isotope systematics, mineralogy, in situ dating, and compilation and analysis of previous work on the deposits. A comprehensive deposit model has not been published for these deposits. This analysis identified new additions to update the deposit model for these unusual, possibly unique deposits. Proposed modifications to the model include: (1) the source, mechanisms, timing of the base-metal sulfide mineral assemblages, and (2) the source, mechanism, and timing of the uranium mineralization. Sulfide and uranium deposition are shown to be separate mineralization events. The study proposes the possible role of gypsum as a source of sulfur for the sulfide minerals in the deposits. Groundwaters carrying uranium encountered the preexisting sulfides in breccia pipes, reducing the uranyl ions, and precipitating U oxide (as uraninite). Analysis of the regional stratigraphy recognized that numerous beds of gypsum are in the strata that lie only tens of meters above the breccia pipe deposits. In the breccia pipe region, if these stratigraphic units (Toroweap and Kaibab Formations) do not contain gypsum layers then the underlying pipes are not mineralized; where these Permian gypsum layers do occur, breccia pipes can host mineralization. This new understanding should be useful in identifying the prospective region for mineralized pipes.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2025

Meet the people where they are: Assessing user needs for aftershock forecast products in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States

Aftershock forecasts can help communities reduce their seismic risk by conveying how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks and their corresponding ground shaking evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate such information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual products can serve multiple user groups, we held workshops with members of several professions, including emergency managers, engineers, critical infrastructure operators, public health specialists, science communicators, and more. We conducted these workshops in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States to understand which forecast products may be effective across different countries. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit the types of aftershock forecast information that would support decisions in their respective roles and how this information would optimally be displayed. Maps of shaking hazards were frequently requested across all professions and countries, even for dissimilar forecast uses. The design of these maps, and other product needs, were differentiated by profession, country and other factors. Other forecast products, including those showing forecasts about the magnitudes and time periods of future aftershocks, also served a variety of users, but for different types of decisions. We found a greater variation in user needs by profession than by country, and that user needs also vary with time, communication channel and other contextual factors. We discuss practical implications for user-centered visual communication of operational aftershock forecasts.

International Journal for Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2025

Observing northern high-latitude river systems to understand changes in a warming Arctic

Purpose of Review Streams and rivers are undergoing rapid change as the Arctic warms and thaws. We review recent observations in Arctic stream systems to identify ubiquitous changes and the most useful tools for observing change and exploring the underlying processes. Recent Findings Recent literature indicates increasingly significant trends in river hydrology and chemistry due to persistent warming in the Arctic and longer observational records for analysis. However, regional differences in the magnitude and direction of these trends persist. We also observe thresholds in ground thaw and surface–groundwater interactions that can impact river hydrology and chemistry. Summary Warming and thaw are occurring rapidly at high latitudes, resulting in increasing, yet variable responses in stream systems across regions and scales. These differences highlight the need for long-term records and an interdisciplinary approach to explain trends and predict future states. Stream systems respond to multiple landscape changes related to hydrology (changing precipitation and subsurface flow), geology (ground thaw dynamics), and ecology (vegetation change).

Current Climate Change Reports↗

USGS2025

Avian navigation: Comparing the olfactory navigational “map” and the infrasound direction-finding hypotheses to aeronautics

Animal navigation has long been a fascinating but bewildering subject. Humans and animals might well share similar navigational strategies because they developed within the same physical environments. A “map-and-compass” model has been proposed to explain the two-step avian navigational process, but the “map” step has remained elusive. Although scalar values from bicoordinate geomagnetic or atmospheric olfactory gradients have been considered foundational to the avian map, neither has proved convincing engendering decades of controversy. The olfactory map, and an alternative infrasound direction-finding (IDF) hypothesis, are discussed in this review. The olfactory map hypothesis currently requires extensive stable gradients of trace-odor ratios, but such gradients are highly unlikely within a turbulent and rapidly mixed lower atmosphere. The IDF hypothesis, on the other hand, postulates a two-step navigational model analogous to the maritime and aeronautical radio direction-finding technique. This review was also written to encourage further investigation, and direct testing, of the acoustic navigational process. The IDF hypothesis, at present, appears the better explanation of observed avian navigational behavior and accuracy within the atmosphere’s physical environment.

Journal of Comparative Physiology A↗