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Soil CO2 emissions as a proxy for heat and mass flow assessment, Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

The quantification of heat and mass flow between deep reservoirs and the surface is important for understanding magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Here, we use high-resolution measurement of carbon dioxide flux (φCO 2 ) and heat flow at the surface to characterize the mass (CO 2 and steam) and heat released to the atmosphere from two magma-hydrothermal systems. Our soil gas and heat flow surveys at Rotokawa and White Island in the Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, include over 3000 direct measurements of φCO 2 and soil temperature and 60 carbon isotopic values on soil gases. Carbon dioxide flux was separated into background and magmatic/hydrothermal populations based on the measured values and isotopic characterization. Total CO 2 emission rates (ΣCO 2 ) of 441 ± 84 t d −1 and 124 ± 18 t d −1 were calculated for Rotokawa (2.9 km 2 ) and for the crater floor at White Island (0.3 km 2 ), respectively. The total CO 2 emissions differ from previously published values by +386 t d −1 at Rotokawa and +25 t d −1 at White Island, demonstrating that earlier research underestimated emissions by 700% (Rotokawa) and 25% (White Island). These differences suggest that soil CO 2 emissions facilitate more robust estimates of the thermal energy and mass flux in geothermal systems than traditional approaches. Combining the magmatic/hydrothermal-sourced CO 2 emission (constrained using stable isotopes) with reservoir H 2 O:CO 2 mass ratios and the enthalpy of evaporation, the surface expression of thermal energy release for the Rotokawa hydrothermal system (226 MW t ) is 10 times greater than the White Island crater floor (22.5 MW t ).

Taupō Volcanic Zone↗

Soil warming effects on tropical forests with highly weathered soils

The tropics are a region encircling the equator, delineated to the north by the Tropic of Cancer (23°26′14.0″N) and to the south by the Tropic of Capricorn (23°26′14.0″S). While we often think of the tropics as consistently warm and wet throughout the year, in reality, the tropics maintain a myriad of climates. Of the 116 Holdridge life zones (a global bioclimatic classification scheme), the tropics contain more life zones than the sum of all the planet's other geographic regions combined ( Holdridge, 1967 ). In addition to high climatic diversity, the tropics support a wide range of parent materials, landforms, geomorphic characteristics, and soil ages, and maintain all 12 soil types of the USDA soil taxonomy system ( Palm et al., 2007 ; Porder et al., 2007 ; Quesada et al., 2010 ; Richter and Babbar, 1991 ; Sanchez, 1977 ; Soil Survey Staff, 2006 ; Townsend et al., 2008 ). Accordingly, there is no single representative tropical ecosystem. Given the diversity of tropical biomes, this chapter will focus specifically on tropical forested ecosystems and their responses to warming because of their global importance, potential sensitivity to change, and the fact that an improved understanding of how these ecosystems may respond to warmer climate conditions is of significant importance to ecology and society. Furthermore, while generally considering all tropical forest types, emphasis in this chapter is on the humid tropics for which we have most data.

Book chapter↗

Physical basis and potential estimation techniques for soil erosion parameters in the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

Simulation of upland-soil erosion by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System currently requires the user to estimate two rainfall detachment parameters and three hydraulic detachmment paramenters. One rainfall detachment parameter can be estimated from rainfall simulator tests. A reformulation of the rainfall detachment equation allows the second parameter to be computed directly. The three hydraulic detachment parameters consist of one exponent and two coefficients. The initial value of the exponent is generally set equal to 1.5. The two coefficients are functions of the soil 's resistance to erosion and one of the two also accounts for sediment delivery processes not simulated in the model. Initial estimates of these parameters can be derived from other modeling studies or from published empirical relations. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Determining the spatial variability of wetland soil bulk density, organic matter, and the conversion factor between organic matter and organic carbon across coastal Louisiana, U.S.A.

Soil bulk density (BD), soil organic matter (SOM) content, and a conversion factor between SOM and soil organic carbon (SOC) are often used in estimating SOC sequestration and storage. Spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor affects the ability to accurately estimate SOC sequestration, storage, and the benefits ( e.g., land building area and vertical accretion) associated with wetland restoration efforts, such as marsh creation and sediment diversions. There are, however, only a few studies that have examined large-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and SOM–SOC conversion factors in coastal wetlands. In this study, soil cores, distributed across the entire coastal Louisiana (approximately 14,667 km 2 ) were used to examine the regional-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor. Soil cores for BD and SOM analyses were collected during 2006–09 from 331 spatially well-distributed sites in the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System network. Soil cores for the SOM–SOC conversion factor analysis were collected from 15 sites across coastal Louisiana during 2006–07. Results of a split-plot analysis of variance with incomplete block design indicated that BD and SOM varied significantly at a landscape level, defined by both hydrologic basins and vegetation types. Vertically, BD and SOM varied significantly among different vegetation types. The SOM–SOC conversion factor also varied significantly at the landscape level. This study provides critical information for the assessment of the role of coastal wetlands in large regional carbon budgets and the estimation of carbon credits from coastal restoration.

Louisiana↗

Engineering-geology site appraisal of the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria

The 7,700-km 2 -area Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, is underlain by crystalline igneous and metamorphic rocks of Precambrian age. Sandstone and claystone of Cretaceous age overlie Precambrian rocks in the southwestern part of the Territory. Laterite caps many hills of Cretaceous rock, some hills of Precambrian rock, and crops out near stream banks in the east and northeast. The most conspicuous structural features are a broad “J”-shaped fold traversing the eastern and central part of the Territory and a north-trending shear zone along the eastern boundary. The soils of the Territory are lateritic and belong to the SW-SP-SM (Unified Soil Classification System) groups covering Precambrian migmatites gneisses and granites and the SC group covering Cretaceous sediments and Precambrian mica-rich schists. The average penetrometer shear strength of the soil is 3.11 bars. The engineering characteristics of the rocks are (1) medium- to high-strength massive and gneissic rock, (2) low-to medium-strength bedded rock, and (3) low-strength foliated and sheared rock. An area of at least 800 km 2 is free from apparent geological hazards and should be suitable for construction of a capital city, its environs and supporting facilities.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin↗

Mobility of organic solvents in water-saturated soil materials

This investigation presents an analysis of the mobility of 37 organic solvents in saturated soil-water systems, focusing on adsorption phenomena at the solid-liquid interface This analysis was made, in part, by applying predictive expressions that estimate the potential magnitude of adsorption by soil materials Of the 37 solvents considered, 19 were classified as either "very highly mobile" or "highly mobile" and, thus, would have little tendency to be retained by soils to a significant extent, 12 were considered to have medium mobility and 6 low mobility None of these solvents were in the immobile class The limited information available indicates that these predictive expressions yield satisfactory first approximations of the magnitude of adsorption of these solvents by soil materials ?? 1985 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences↗

Sorption of cadmium and lead by clays from municipal incinerator ash- water suspensions

The effect of Cl complexation in extracts of a flue gas-scrubber incinerator fly ash sample on the sorption of Cd and Pb by kaolinite and illite was investigated using batch-sorption methods. In the pH range of 5 to 9, Cl complexation may reduce sorption and thus increase the mobility of these metals. When an ash—water suspension was acidified to pH 6.85, the dissolution of Cl and Ca essentially eliminated Cd sorption because of complexation and cationic competition. Cadmium would be considered as either mobile or very mobile under these conditions. Lead was not soluble in the pH-6.85 suspension. At pH 12, the approximate pH of water in contact with flue gas-scrubber fly ash, Cd was essentially insoluble and Pb occurred as anionic Pb hydroxide. Anionic Pb was sorbed by the two clays, and the extent of sorption was not influenced by Cl or carbonate complexation. Sorption constants, derived from isotherms, suggested that Pb would be relatively immobile in saturated soil—water systems. The recent concern that highly alkaline, flue gas-scrubber fly ash may release environmentally significant concentrations of mobile Pb when placed in an ash-disposal site with a soil liner should be reevaluated in light of this study.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Human land-use and soil change

Soil change refers to the alteration of soil and soil properties over time in one location, as opposed to soil variability across space. Although soils change with pedogensis, this chapter focuses on human caused soil change. Soil change can occur with human use and management over long or short time periods and small or large scales. While change can be negative or positive; often soil change is observed when short-term or narrow goals overshadow the other soil’s ecosystem services. Many soils have been changed in their chemical, physical or biological properties through agricultural activities, including cultivation, tillage, weeding, terracing, subsoiling, deep plowing, manure and fertilizer addition, liming, draining, and irrigation. Assessing soil change depends upon the ecosystem services and soil functions being evaluated. The interaction of soil properties with the type and intensity of management and disturbance determines the changes that will be observed. Tillage of cropland disrupts aggregates and decreases soil organic carbon content which can lead to decreased infiltration, increased erosion, and reduced biological function. Improved agricultural management systems can increase soil functions including crop productivity and sustainability. Forest management is most intensive during harvesting and seedling establishment. Most active management in forests causes disturbance of the soil surface which may include loss of forest floor organic materials, increases in bulk density, and increased risk of erosion. In grazing lands, pasture management often includes periods of biological, chemical and physical disturbance in addition to the grazing management imposed on rangelands. Grazing animals have both direct and indirect impacts on soil change. Hoof action can lead to the disturbance of biological crusts and other surface features impairing the soil’s physical, biological and hydrological function. There are clear feedbacks between vegetative systems and soil properties; when vegetation is altered because of grazing or other disturbances, soil property changes often follow. Some soils are very sensitive to management and disturbance and can undergo rapid change: cropping led to massive gully formation in the southeastern USA, exposure of acid-sulfate soils led to irreversible changes in soil minerology and thawing of cold soils has created thermokarst features. These soil changes alter soil properties and functions and may impact soil ecosystem services far into the future.

World Soils Book Series↗

Soil property and class maps of the conterminous United States at 100-meter spatial resolution

With growing concern for the depletion of soil resources, conventional soil maps need to be updated and provided at finer and finer resolutions to be able to support spatially explicit human–landscape models. Three US soil point datasets—the National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database, the National Soil Information System, and the Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset—were combined with a stack of over 200 environmental datasets and gSSURGO polygon maps to generate complete coverage gridded predictions at 100-m spatial resolution of six soil properties (percentage of organic C, total N, bulk density, pH, and percentage of sand and clay) and two US soil taxonomic classes (291 great groups [GGs] and 78 modified particle size classes [mPSCs]) for the conterminous United States. Models were built using parallelized random forest and gradient boosting algorithms as implemented in the ranger and xgboost packages for R. Soil property predictions were generated at seven standard soil depths (0, 5, 15, 30, 60, 100, and 200 cm). Prediction probability maps for US soil taxonomic classifications were also generated. Cross validation results indicated an out-of-bag classification accuracy of 60% for GGs and 66% for mPSCs; for soil properties, RMSE for leave-location-out cross-validation was 0.74 ( R 2 = 0.68), 17.8 wt% ( R 2 = 0.57), 12 wt% ( R 2 = 0.46), 3.63 wt% ( R 2 = 0.41), 0.2 g cm −3 ( R 2 = 0.42), and 0.27 wt% ( R 2 = 0.39) for pH, percent sand and clay, weight percentage of organic C, bulk density, and weight percentage of total N, respectively. Nine independent validation datasets were used to assess prediction accuracies for soil class models, and results ranged between 24 and 58% and between 24 and 93% for GG and mPSC prediction accuracies, respectively. Although mapping accuracies were variable and likely lower than gSSURGO in some areas, this modeling approach can enable easier integration of soil information with spatially explicit models compared with multicomponent map units.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

Evaluation of Nitrate Concentrations and Sources in the Elk Creek Watershed, Southwestern Ohio, 2003-2004

Nitrate concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter have been reported in ground water near the City of Trenton, Ohio, in the southern part of the Elk Creek watershed. A study of nitrate concentrations and sources in surface and ground water within the Elk Creek watershed was conducted during 2003 and 2004. Nitrate concentrations in the Elk Creek watershed range from less than 0.06 to 11 milligrams per liter. The likely sources of elevated nitrate in the ground water near the City of Trenton appear to be soil organic matter and ammonia fertilizer. Land use is predominantly (93 percent) agricultural, with no identified point sources of nitrate. Likely sources of nitrate in the surface water appear to be manure and septic system effluent, soil organic matter, and ammonia fertilizer. Water-quality constituents, including nitrate, were sampled in water from 38 wells and at 6 surface-water sites. The wells were all shallow (less than 105 feet deep), with open intervals in aquifers of glacial origin, that include tills, outwash, and alluvium. Nitrate concentrations (median of 0.06 milligrams per liter) in the ground water of the upper section of the watershed were lower than those in the lower section of the watershed (median of 4.2 milligrams per liter). Nitrate was analyzed for nitrogen and oxygen isotope values. The d15N and d18O range from -22.36 to +32.29 per mil, and -6.27 to +17.72 per mil, respectively. A positive correlation of d15N and d18O enrichment indicates that denitrification is a prevalent process within the watershed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report↗

Comparison and analysis of empirical equations for soil heat flux for different cropping systems and irrigation methods

We evaluated the performance of four models for estimating soil heat flux density (G) in maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) fields under different irrigation methods (center-pivot irrigated fields at Mead, Nebraska, and subsurface drip irrigated field at Clay Center, Nebraska) and rainfed conditions at Mead. The model estimates were compared against measurements made during growing seasons of 2003, 2004, and 2005 at Mead and during 2005, 2006, and 2007 at Clay Center. We observed a strong relationship between the G and net radiation (Rn) ratio (G/Rn) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). When a significant portion of the ground was bare soil, G/Rn ranged from 0.15 to 0.30 and decreased with increasing NDVI. In contrast to the NDVI progression, the G/Rn ratio decreased with crop growth and development. The G/Rn ratio for subsurface drip irrigated crops was smaller than for the center-pivot irrigated crops. The seasonal average G was 13.1%, 15.2%, 10.9%, and 12.8% of Rn for irrigated maize, rainfed maize, irrigated soybean, and rainfed soybean, respectively. Statistical analyses of the performance of the four models showed a wide range of variation in G estimation. The root mean square error (RMSE) of predictions ranged from 15 to 81.3 W m-2. Based on the wide range of RMSE, it is recommended that local calibration of the models should be carried out for remote estimation of soil heat flux.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

Evaluating microbial purification during soil treatment of wastewater with multicomponent tracer and surrogate tests

Soil treatment of wastewater has the potential to achieve high purification efficiency, yet the understanding and predictability of purification with respect to removal of viruses and other pathogens is limited. Research has been completed to quantify the removal of virus and bacteria through the use of microbial surrogates and conservative tracers during controlled experiments with three-dimensional pilot-scale soil treatment systems in the laboratory and during the testing of full-scale systems under field conditions. The surrogates and tracers employed included two viruses (MS-2 and PRID-1 bacteriophages), one bacterium (ice-nucleating active Pseudomonas ), and one conservative tracer (bromide ion). Efforts have also been made to determine the relationship between viruses and fecal coliform bacteria in soil samples below the wastewater infiltrative surface, and the correlation between Escherichia coli concentrations measured in percolating soil solution as compared with those estimated from analyses of soil solids. The results suggest episodic breakthrough of virus and bacteria during soil treatment of wastewater and a 2 to 3 log (99-99.9%) removal of virus and near complete removal of fecal coliform bacteria during unsaturated flow through 60 to 90 cm of sandy medium. Results also suggest that the fate of fecal coliform bacteria may be indicative of that of viruses in soil media near the infiltrative surface receiving wastewater effluent. Concentrations of fecal coliform in percolating soil solution may be conservatively estimated from analysis of extracted soil solids.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

A comparison of rock and soil samples for geochemical mapping of two porphyry-metal systems in Colorado

Paired rock and soil samples were collected at widely spaced locations in large segments of the porphyry-metal systems of the Montezuma district in central Colorado and of a northwestward extension of the Summitville district into Crater Creek in southern Colorado. The paired samples do not covary closely enough for one sample medium to proxy for the other. However, the areal distributions of elements in both rocks and soils in these two districts conform to alteration zoning as defined by mineralogy. Differing geochemical patterns of rocks and soils reflect species-dependent responses to weathering. Soils appear to be statistically enriched in ore elements and depleted in rock elements as compared to the matching rocks. These differences are largely artificial s owing to different methods of sample preparation and chemical analysis for rocks and for soils. The distributions of metals in soils delineate the occurrence of ore-metal minerals mostly from vein deposits whereas the distributions of metals in rocks conform to zones of pervasive hydrothermal alteration and to the distribution of varied mineral deposits among these zones. Rock and soil samples are equally useful s of comparable map resolution and complement one another as a basis for geochemically mapping these porphyry-metal systems.

Open-File Report↗

A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall is critical for end-of-season outcomes. Finally we show that, in terms of forecasting spatial patterns of SM anomalies, the skill of this agricultural drought forecast system is generally greater (> 0.8 correlation) during drought years. This means that this system might be particularity useful for identifying the events that present the greatest risk to the region.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Hydrologic characteristics of soils in the High Plains, northern Great Plains, and Central Texas Carbonates Regional Aquifer Systems

Certain physical characteristics of soils, including permeability, available water capacity, thickness, and topographic position, have a measurable effect on the hydrology of an area. These characteristics control the rate at which precipitation infiltrates or is transmitted through the soil, and thus they have an important role in determining the rates of actual evapotranspiration (consumptive water use), groundwater recharge, and surface runoff. In studies of groundwater hydrology, it is useful to differentiate soils spatially according to their physical characteristics and to assign values that indicate their hydrologic responses. The principal purpose of this report is to describe the relation between the hydrologic characteristics of the soils in the study area and those environmental factors that affect the development and distribution of the soils. This objective will be achieved by (1) defining both qualitatively and quantitatively those soil characteristics that affect hydrology, and (2) classifying and delineating the boundaries of the soils in the study area according to these hydrologic characteristics. The study area includes the High Plains, Northern Great Plains, the Central Texas Carbonates, and parts of the Central Midwest Regional Aquifer Systems as described by the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) Program (Sun, 1986, p.5and Sun, personal commun., June 1985) and shown in figures 1 through 5. The spatial patterns of the soils classified according to their quantifiable hydrologic characteristics will subsequently serve as an integral component in the analysis of actual evapotranspiration (consumptive water use), consumptive irrigation requirements, and potential ground-water recharge of the study area. The classification system used to describe the soils in this report is compatible with that of Dugan (1986). Dugan described the same characteristics of soils that are immediately underlain by principal aquifers of Cretaceous or older age in adjacent parts of the Central Midwest Regional Aquifer System. However, map scales and mapping detail are different between this report and the report by Dugan (1986) because of the size of the study area.

Hydrologic Atlas↗

Soil gas studies along the Trans-Challis fault system near Idaho City, Boise County, Idaho

Soil gases were sampled along several traverses that cross the Trans-Challis fault system in central Idaho. Anomalous carbon dioxide, hydrogen, oxygen, hydrocarbon, and sulfur gas concentrations coincide with faults and known mineralized areas. Anomalies in areas not known to be mineralized may reflect undiscovered mineral deposits or concealed faults. Soil gases may be a useful exploration guide for mineral deposits in this terrane.

Idaho↗