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Moderate-resolution sea surface temperature data for the nearshore North Pacific

Coastal sea surface temperature (SST) is an important environmental characteristic in determining the suitability of habitat for nearshore marine and estuarine organisms. This publication describes and provides access to an easy-to-use coastal SST dataset for ecologists, biogeographers, oceanographers, and other scientists conducting research on nearshore marine habitats or processes. The data cover the Temperate Northern Pacific Ocean as defined by the 'Marine Ecosystems of the World' (MEOW) biogeographic schema developed by The Nature Conservancy. The spatial resolution of the SST data is 4-km grid cells within 20 km of the shore. The data span a 29-year period - from September 1981 to December 2009. These SST data were derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument measurements compiled into monthly means as part of the Pathfinder versions 5.0 and 5.1 (PFSST V50 and V51) Project. The processing methods used to transform the data from their native Hierarchical Data Format Scientific Data Set (HDF SDS) to georeferenced, spatial datasets capable of being read into geographic information systems (GIS) software are explained. In addition, links are provided to examples of scripts involved in the data processing steps. The scripts were written in the Python programming language, which is supported by ESRI's ArcGIS version 9 or later. The processed data files are also provided in text (.csv) and Access 2003 Database (.mdb) formats. All data except the raster files include attributes identifying realm, province, and ecoregion as defined by the MEOW classification schema.

Open-File Report

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895-2006

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska?division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central). Historical climate data and daily streamflow records from 1895 through 2006 at the five streamflow-gaging stations were divided into six 11-water-year periods: 1895?1905, 1934?44, 1951?61, 1966?76, 1985?95, and 1996?2006. Analysis of monthly climate variables?precipitation and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index?was used to determine the degree of hydroclimatic association between streamflow and climate. Except for the 1895?1905 period, data gaps in the streamflow record were filled by data estimation techniques, and 171 hydrologic indices were calculated using the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A subset of 27 nonredundant indices (of the 171 indices) was selected using principal component analysis. Indices that described monthly streamflow?mean, maximum, minimum, skewness, and coefficients of variation?also were used. Comparison of these selected indices allowed determination of temporal differences among the six 11-water-year periods for each gaging station. The lower Platte River basin was affected by moderate to severe drought conditions in the 1934?44 period. The widespread drought was preceded by mildly to moderately wet conditions in the 1895?1906 period, followed by incipient drought to incipiently wet conditions in the 1951?61 periods and mildly wet conditions in 1966?76 period, moderately wet conditions in the 1985?1995 period, and incipient drought to mildly wet conditions in the 1996?2006 period. Monthly streamflow of the Platte River from Duncan through Louisville, Nebraska, correlated significantly with the monthly Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. Temporal differences in median values of monthly-mean and monthly-maximum streamflow measured at Duncan, North Bend, and Ashland stations between the two moderately wet periods (1895?1905 and 1985?95) indicated that streamflow storage reservoirs and regulation some time after 1906 significantly reduced monthly streamflow magnitude and amplitude?the difference between the highest and lowest median values of monthly mean streamflow. Effects of storage reservoirs on the median values of monthly-minimum streamflow were less obvious. Temporal differences among the other five periods, from 1934 through 2006 when streamflow was affected by storage and regulation, indicated the predominant effects of contrasting climate conditions on median values of monthly mean, maximum, and minimum streamflow. Significant temporal differences in monthly streamflow values were evident mainly between the two periods of greatly

Scientific Investigations Report

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Missouri River Watershed

Simulated responses of streams and ponds to groundwater withdrawals and wastewater return flows in southeastern Massachusetts

Water use, such as withdrawals, wastewater return flows, and interbasin transfers, can alter streamflow regimes, water quality, and the integrity of aquatic habitat and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. To provide the information needed to determine alteration of streamflows and pond water levels in southeastern Massachusetts, existing groundwater models of the Plymouth-Carver region and western (Sagamore flow lens) and eastern (Monomoy flow lens) Cape Cod were used to delineate subbasins and simulate long-term average and average monthly streamflows and pond levels for a series of water-use conditions. Model simulations were used to determine the extent to which streamflows and pond levels were altered by comparing simulated streamflows and pond levels under predevelopment conditions with streamflows and pond levels under pumping only and pumping with wastewater return flow conditions. The pumping and wastewater return flow rates used in this study are the same as those used in previously published U.S. Geological Survey studies in southeastern Massachusetts and represent the period from 2000 to 2005. Streamflow alteration for the nontidal portions of streams in southeastern Massachusetts was evaluated within and at the downstream outlets of 78 groundwater subbasins delineated for this study. Evaluation of streamflow alteration at subbasin outlets is consistent with the approach used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the topographically derived subbasins in the rest of Massachusetts. The net effect of pumping and wastewater return flows on streamflows and pond levels varied by location and included no change in areas minimally affected by water use, decreases in areas affected more by pumping than by wastewater return flows, or increases in areas affected more by wastewater return flows than by pumping. Simulated alterations to long-term average streamflows at subbasin outlets in response to pumping with wastewater return flows were within about 10 percent of predevelopment streamflows for most of the subbasins in the study area. Alterations ranged from a decrease (depletion) of 43.9 percent at an unnamed tributary to Salt Pond in the Plymouth-Carver region to an increase (surcharge) of 18.2 percent at an unnamed tributary to the Centerville River on western Cape Cod. In general, the relative effects of pumping and wastewater return flows typically were larger in the subbasins with low streamflows than in the subbasins with high streamflows, and there were more depleted streamflows than surcharged streamflows. Increases in streamflows in response to wastewater return flows were generally largest in subbasins with a high density of septic systems or a centralized wastewater treatment facility. For average monthly conditions, streamflow alteration results were similar spatially to results for long-term average conditions. However, differences in the extent of alteration by month were observed; percentage streamflow depletions in most subbasins typically were greatest during the low-streamflow months of August and October. The percentages of the total number of ponds affected by pumping with wastewater return flows under long-term average conditions in the modeled areas were 28 percent for the Plymouth-Carver region, 67 percent for western Cape Cod, and 75 percent for eastern Cape Cod. Pond-level alterations ranged from a decrease of 4.6 feet at Great South Pond in the Plymouth Carver region to an increase of 0.9 feet at Wequaquet Lake in western Cape Cod. The magnitudes of monthly alterations to pond water levels were fairly consistent throughout the year.

Massachusetts

Flow characteristics and salinity patterns of tidal rivers within the northern Ten Thousand Islands, southwest Florida, water years 2007–14

Freshwater flow to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary has been altered by the construction of the Tamiami Trail and the Southern Golden Gate Estates. The Picayune Strand Restoration Project, which is associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, has been implemented to improve freshwater delivery to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary by removing hundreds of miles of roads, emplacing hundreds of canal plugs, removing exotic vegetation, and constructing three pump stations. Quantifying the tributary flows and salinity patterns prior to, during, and after the restoration is essential to assessing the effectiveness of upstream restoration efforts. Tributary flow and salinity patterns during preliminary restoration efforts and prior to the installation of pump stations were analyzed to provide baseline data and preliminary analysis of changes due to restoration efforts. The study assessed streamflow and salinity data for water years 1 2007–2014 for the Faka Union River (canal flow included), East River, Little Wood River, Pumpkin River, and Blackwater River. Salinity data from the Palm River and Faka Union Boundary water-quality stations were also assessed. Faka Union River was the dominant contributor of freshwater during water years 2007–14 to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary, followed by Little Wood and East Rivers. Pumpkin River and Blackwater River were the least substantial contributors of freshwater flow. The lowest annual flow volumes, the highest annual mean salinities, and the highest percentage of salinity values greater than 35 parts per thousand (ppt) occurred in water year 2011 at all sites with available data, corresponding with the lowest annual rainfall during the study. The highest annual flow volumes and the lowest percentage of salinities greater than 35 ppt occurred in water year 2013 for all sites with available data, corresponding with the highest rainfall during the study. In water year 2014, the percentage of monitored annual flow contributed by East River increased and the percentage of flow contributed by Faka Union River decreased, compared to the earlier years. No changes in annual flow occurred at any sites west of Faka Union River. No changes in the relative flow contributions were observed during the wet season; however, the relative amounts of streamflow increased during the dry season at East River in 2014. East River had only 1 month of negative flow in 2014 compared to 6 months in 2011 and 7 months in 2008. Higher dry season flows in East River may be in response to restoration efforts. The sites to the west of Faka Union River had higher salinities on average than Faka Union River and East River. Faka Union River had the highest range in salinities, and Faka Union Boundary had the lowest range in salinities. Pumpkin River was the tributary with the lowest range in salinities. 1 Water year is defined as the 12-month period from October 1, for any given year, through September 30 of the following year.

Florida

Summary of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through 2003

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in the zero-flow potential for U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated a data and reporting process to generate summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A summary of the percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective for zero-flow potential for the watershed. The summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for each station are graphically depicted using two thematic perspectives: annual and monthly. The annual perspective consists of graphs of annual percentages of zero streamflow by year with the addition of lines depicting the mean and median annual percentage of zero streamflow. Monotonic trends in the percentages of zero streamflow also are identified using Kendall's T. The monthly perspective consists of graphs of the percentage of zero streamflow by month with lines added to indicate the mean and median monthly percentage of zero streamflow. One or more summaries could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of zero-flow or other low-flow conditions in Texas.

Data Series

Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

Fact Sheet

Discharge, sediment, and water chemistry in Clear Creek, western Nevada, water years 2013–16

Clear Creek is a small stream that drains the eastern Carson Range near Lake Tahoe, flows roughly parallel to the Highway 50 corridor, and discharges to the Carson River near Carson City, Nevada. Historical and ongoing development in the drainage basin is thought to be affecting Clear Creek and its sediment-transport characteristics. Previous studies from water years (WYs) 2004 to 2007 and from 2010 to 2012 evaluated discharge, selected water-quality parameters, and suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, and yields at three Clear Creek sampling sites. This report serves as a continuation of the data collection and analyses of the Clear Creek discharge regime and associated water-chemistry and sediment concentrations and loads during WYs 2013–16. Total annual sediment loads ranged from 870 to 5,300 tons during WYs 2004–07, from 320 to 1,770 tons during WYs 2010–12, and from 50 to 200 tons during WYs 2013–16. Ranges in annual loads during the three study periods were not significantly different; however, total loads were greater during 2004–07 than they were during 2013–16. Annual suspended-sediment loads in WYs 2013–16 showed no significant change since WYs 2010–12 at sites 1 (U.S. Geological Survey reference site 10310485; Clear Creek above Highway 50, near Spooner Summit, Nevada) or 2 (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10310500; Clear Creek above Highway 50, near Spooner Summit, Nevada), but significantly lower loads at site 3 (U.S. Geological Survey site 10310518; Clear Creek at Fuji Park, at Carson City, Nevada), supporting the theory of sediment deposition between sites 2 and 3 where the stream gradient becomes more gradual. Currently, a threshold discharge of about 3.3 cubic feet per second is required to mobilize streambed sediment (bedload) from site 2 in Clear Creek. Mean daily discharge was significantly lower in 2010–12 than in 2004–07 and also significantly lower in 2013–16 than in 2010–12. During this study, lower bedload, and therefore lower total sediment load in Clear Creek was primarily due to significantly lower discharge and cannot be directly attributed to sediment mitigation work in the basin. Water chemistry in Clear Creek shows that the general water type of the creek under base-flow conditions in autumn is a dilute calcium bicarbonate. During winter and spring, the chemistry shifts toward a slightly more sodium and chloride character. Though the chemical characteristics show seasonal change, the water chemistries examined as part of this investigation remain within ecological criteria as adopted by the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection. There was no evidence of aqueous polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) present in Clear Creek water during this study. Concentrations of PAHs, as determined in one bed-sediment sample and multiple semi-permeable membrane device extracts, were either less than quantifiable limits of analysis or were found at similar concentrations as blank samples. In July 2014, a 250–300-acre fire burned in the Clear Creek drainage basin. One day after the fire was extinguished, a thunderstorm washed sediment into the creek. A water chemistry sample collected as part of the post-fire storm event showed that the stormwater entering the creek had increased the concentrations of ammonium and organic nitrogen, phosphorus, manganese, and potassium; a similar finding of many other studies evaluating the effects of fires in small drainage basins. Subsequent chemical analyses of Clear Creek water in August 2014 (one month later) showed that these constituents had returned to pre-fire concentrations.

Nevada

Updates to the Madison Lake (Minnesota) CE–QUAL–W2 water-quality model for assessing algal community dynamics

A previously developed CE–QUAL–W2 model for Madison Lake, Minnesota, simulated the algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of Madison Lake under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. Additionally, this previously developed model simulated the complex interplay between external nutrient loading, internal nutrient loading from sediment release of phosphorus, and the organic matter decomposition of the algal biomass. However, the partitioning of Cyanophyta within the modeling framework was simplified to one group and did not account for how different Cyanophyta populations are affected by light conditions, use of nitrogen, temperature growth ranges, and differences in settling rates. Properly capturing Cyanophyta dynamics is important given the potential risks posed by potential large algal blooms. For example, when Cyanophyta form large blooms, recreational activities can become restricted in certain areas because of thick algal scums or algal mats, in addition to the possible production of a class of toxins, known as cyanotoxins, capable of threatening human health, domestic animals, and wildlife. Therefore, we updated the model to partition the Cyanophyta into a group that fixed nitrogen and a second, more buoyant Cyanophyta group that did not independently fix nitrogen. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the St. Croix Watershed Research Station (Science Museum of Minnesota) with support from the Environmental and Natural Resources Trust Fund of Minnesota (Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources), updated the Madison Lake CE–QUAL–W2 model to address the shortcomings of simulating Cyanophyta in the previously developed model and better characterize Cyanophyta into two groups. In addition to updating the Cyanophyta group differentiation, the part of the model that handles the simulation of algal community dynamics was updated while preserving model predictive capabilities for nutrients, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The calibration and validation of the model was done under recent meteorological conditions with large and persistent Cyanophyta blooms (2014 and 2016). Overall, the model simulations predicted the persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in the hypolimnion of Madison Lake and key differences in nutrient concentrations between 2014 and 2016. The Cyanophyta bloom persistence throughout the summer was also simulated by the model in 2014 and 2016, a critical goal of the model update. Finally, monthly total phosphorus budgets were calculated for the updated Madison Lake model for 2014 and 2016.

Minnesota

Substrate particle-size distribution, dissolved-oxygen concentrations, sediment temperatures, and groundwater/surface-water exchange in shoreline spawning habitat of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) of Lake Ozette, Western Washington

Sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) spawn at beaches along Lake Ozette’s shoreline and within its tributary streams including Umbrella Creek and Big River in western Washington. The tributary-spawning aggregate of the Lake Ozette sockeye salmon population has been increasing from very low abundance through hatchery supplementation, but the beach-spawning aggregate has decreased from the early 20th century resulting in an Endangered Species Act listing of the Lake Ozette sockeye salmon population as “Threatened” in 1999. Among several factors inhibiting the recovery of beach spawning sockeye salmon, the quality of spawning habitat in beaches and low dissolved-oxygen concentrations in beach gravels during incubation were identified as important limitations on the recovery of this population. Proliferation of primarily native near-shore vegetation during the 20th century, as a result of alterations in the lake hydroperiod, accompanied by fine-grained sediment deposition was hypothesized as a potential cause of low rates of water circulation and dissolved-oxygen concentrations in beach spawning gravels. The potential for shoreline vegetation removal to restore spawning habitat function, including dissolved-oxygen concentrations, was evaluated in this report by measuring continuous dissolved-oxygen concentrations with data-logging dissolved-oxygen sensors, by measuring particle-size distribution of beach sediment, and by estimating groundwater/surface-water exchange using vertical sediment temperature profiles at three shoreline sampling areas. These sampling areas included an area of current spawning devoid of shoreline vegetation, an adjacent vegetated area, and an adjacent treatment area where a 3-meter-wide swath of existing above-ground vegetation was removed in 2018 prior to the study. Substrate particle-size distributions, dissolved-oxygen concentrations, sediment temperatures, and groundwater/surface-water exchange were compared among the three shoreline sampling areas. Median grain size (D 50 ) of sediment varied at sampling stations from medium sand fine to coarse gravel. The coarsest sediment generally occurred in the current spawning area that was devoid of vegetation; whereas the vegetated shoreline and the shoreline where above-ground vegetation was removed were characterized by finer sediment. Removal of above-ground vegetation resulted in increased D 50 at the most shoreward station at the treatment sampling area from 8.2 millimeters in 2018 to 21.6 millimeters in 2019 but other changes in substrate particle-size distribution in the treatment area were negligible. Increased grain size from 2018 to 2019 at this site suggests that while higher wave energy was allowed to mobilize sediment in the backshore area of the treatment area and winnow fine sediment during the winter, residual root structure in the treatment area may have limited the ability of wave energy to mobilize sediment after removal. During the November 2018 to March 2019 incubation period for sockeye salmon, dissolved-oxygen concentrations at the depth of sockeye salmon egg pockets (15–25 centimeters) within all three shoreline sampling areas were less than 1 milligram per liter throughout the deployment time (October 2018—May 2019) and below the threshold to sustain sockeye salmon embryo development (3 milligrams per liter). In addition, the similarity of dissolved-oxygen concentrations among all three shoreline sampling areas indicates that above-ground vegetation removal did not increase subsurface dissolved-oxygen concentrations. Groundwater/surface-water exchange measured from sediment temperature profiles were variable both within and across shoreline sampling areas. At the most lakeward stations, groundwater discharge to the lake ranged from 0.25 to 0.007 meter per day and was highest at the control station and lowest at the vegetated station. However, in general, the differences in groundwater/surface-water exchange across the three shoreline sampling areas were negligible. Collectively, these results suggest the process of removing above-ground vegetation had little effect on subsurface dissolved-oxygen concentrations and groundwater/surface-water exchange during the study period, but limitations of the study design, including retention of below-surface root cohesion after above-ground vegetation removal, too narrow of a band of vegetation removal, and a limited duration of the monitoring period, may have pre vented wave energy from winnowing fine-grained sediment along the shoreline and altering subsurface dissolved-oxygen concentrations during the study period. Response of the substrate particle-size distribution, groundwater/surface-water exchange, and subsurface dissolved-oxygen concentrations to shoreline vegetation removal that includes root-zone removal over a larger extent and longer periods than the 7-month study period from October 2018 to May 2019, however, remain unknown and warrant further investigation.

Washington

Modeling the surface water and groundwater budgets of the US using MODFLOW-OWHM

Assessments of groundwater and surface water budgets at a large scale, such as the contiguous United States, often separately analyze the complex dynamics linking the surface and subsurface categories of water resources. These dynamics include recharge and groundwater contributions to streamflow. The time-varying simulation of these complex hydrologic dynamics, across large spatial and temporal scales, remains a scientific challenge due to the complexity of the processes and data availability. In this study, groundwater fluxes and surface hydrologic processes are simulated across the contiguous US for 1950-2010. The simulation estimates the monthly water budget components, such as groundwater recharge, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration; streamflow in major rivers is routed while accounting for groundwater exchange. Human impacts are included through groundwater pumping, and climate variability is included, including variability in precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The simulated groundwater level and river discharge have strong correlation with USGS observation wells and streamflow gages, with R 2 values of 0.992 and 0.946, respectively. The simulated evapotranspiration is compared with three other published estimation methods, showing that it is able to capture the magnitude and seasonality of evapotranspiration over the Mississippi River basin. As such, the model is able to reasonably simulate the surface and groundwater budgets over the US, allowing for questions of the relative importance of climate and human impacts to be explored in the future.

Advances in Water Resources

Montana StreamStats

About this volume Montana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort. Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

Montana

Evaporation from the interior of Lake Okeechobee—A large freshwater lake in Florida, 2013–16

In 2012, a platform at the approximate center of Lake Okeechobee in central Florida was instrumented to continuously measure evaporation with the Bowen-ratio energy-budget method as part of a long-term partnership between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Geological Survey. The primary goal for the study was to quantify daily rates of open-water evaporation. A secondary goal was to assess differences in evaporation rates among alternate methods and determine if instrumentation and operational expenses associated with the Bowen-ratio method could be reduced. Mean annual evaporation from Lake Okeechobee for 2013–16 was about 1,825 millimeters per year. Annual evaporation from 2013 to 2016 was 1,760, 1,840, 1,810, and 1,890 millimeters per year, respectively. These evaporation rates are among the highest rates observed in Florida based on scientifically vetted methods such as evaporation pans, lysimeters, eddy-covariance, or Bowen-ratio methods. The high evaporation rates are largely a result of frequent clear-sky conditions over the interior of Lake Okeechobee, which allows solar radiation to reach the water surface and drive open-water evaporation. Cloud formation over the interior of Lake Okeechobee is suppressed because of a relatively large heat capacity for water that buffers convective fluxes of air that form clouds while rising and cooling. Estimated evaporation rates obtained using five alternative methods were compared to measured Bowen-ratio energy-budget daily, monthly, and annual evaporation: the Penman, Priestly-Taylor, Mass-Transfer, Simple, and Turc equations. All five methods performed relatively well (within 10 percent of the Bowen ratio annual totals). The Penman, Priestley-Taylor, and Mass-Transfer methods captured relatively large evaporation rates that occurred in the winter due to cold fronts, because these methods account for large wind speeds and vapor pressure deficits associated with the regional cold fronts. For operational implementation, the Simple, Mass-Transfer, or Turc methods are likely preferable because of their simplicity, limited data requirements, and improved accuracy for computing monthly and annual evaporation totals. The Turc equation computed monthly evaporation within 8 percent of the Bowen-ratio method, while requiring only air temperature and solar radiation data. The Simple equation achieved similar accuracy while requiring only solar radiation data.

Florida

Estimation of monthly water yields and flows for 1951-2012 for the United States portion of the Great Lakes Basin with AFINCH

Monthly water yields from 105,829 catchments and corresponding flows in 107,691 stream segments were estimated for water years 1951–2012 in the Great Lakes Basin in the United States. Both sets of estimates were computed by using the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) application within the NHDPlus geospatial data framework. AFINCH provides an environment to develop constrained regression models to integrate monthly streamflow and water-use data with monthly climatic data and fixed basin characteristics data available within NHDPlus or supplied by the user. For this study, the U.S. Great Lakes Basin was partitioned into seven study areas by grouping selected hydrologic subregions and adjoining cataloguing units. This report documents the regression models and data used to estimate monthly water yields and flows in each study area. Estimates of monthly water yields and flows are presented in a Web-based mapper application. Monthly flow time series for individual stream segments can be retrieved from the Web application and used to approximate monthly flow-duration characteristics and to identify possible trends.

Great Lakes Basin

Robust earthquake early warning at a fraction of the cost: ASTUTI Costa Rica

We show that a fixed smartphone network can provide robust Earthquake Early Warning for at least two orders of magnitude less cost than scientific-grade networks. Our software and cloud-based data architecture that we have constructed for the Alerta Sismica Temprana Utilizando Teléfonos Inteligentes (ASTUTI; Earthquake Early Warning Utilizing Smartphones) network in Costa Rica is easily scaled and exported. Implementation comprises provisioning and installing modern smartphones in judicious locations. Stand-up time for regionally operational networks can be on the order of days. We evaluated a non-parametric ground-motion detection and alerting strategy that would alert the entire Costa Rican population of any event with a ground motion detection threshold of 0.55–0.65 %g at four neighboring stations. During a 6-month evaluation period ASTUTI detected and alerted on five of 13 earthquakes with M w 4.8–5.3 that caused felt Modified Mercalli Intensity shaking levels of 4.3–6. The system did not produce any false alerts and the undetected events did not produce wide-spread or significant felt shaking. System latencies were less than or similar to scientific-grade latencies. Alerts for all five detected events would have reached the capital city, San Jose, before strong S -wave shaking. This would have afforded time for Drop Cover Hold On actions by most residents. Two of the five alerts were triggered by P -waves suggesting that smartphone-based networks could approach the fastest theoretical EEW performance, especially with future expected improvements in smartphone sensors and processing algorithms.

AGU Advances

Determining low-flow conditions at select streams to Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor as the first step towards the development of ecological-flow targets

Maintaining streamflow to support human water needs and ecosystem services requires a fundamental understanding of the relations between changes in streamflow processes and ecosystem responses. Changes in the natural patterns in flow, geology, and topography alter the habitats that aquatic organisms rely on for food, shelter, and reproduction. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented an ecological-flow framework that encapsulates the basic principles of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) to compare the relations between hydrologic metrics and stream conditions and estimate ecological flow needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed. As a first step in the ELOHA process, streamflow from two historical time periods (occurring between 1933 and 1988) was compared to streamflow for a recent time period (from 2004-2020) for four major streams in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed (North Branch Metedeconk River, Toms River, Cedar Creek, and Westecunk Creek), to evaluate if there were statistically significant differences in streamflow metrics. Analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual low-flow metrics; patterns in the streamflow record; and general land-use changes were used to develop a better understanding of flow conditions in the watershed. The comparative streamflow analysis indicated that notable changes in flow processes for the study streams occurred between the three periods of record (PORs) evaluated in this study: period of record 1 (POR1, from water years 1933–1958), period of record 2 (POR2, from water years 1974–1988), and period of record 3 (POR3, from water years 2004–2020). For example, the mean of the daily streamflow decreased between the historical POR to the current POR in Cedar Creek but increased in North Branch Metedeconk and Toms Rivers. Larger and more significant changes (p-value <0.10) occurred during specific months or were related to the variability or seasonality of flow. North Branch Metedeconk River and Toms River, the two northern and most developed sites, exhibited changes in low-flow metrics and decreases in minimum n-day moving averages. Decreases in the normalized 75th-percentile exceedance flows were evident at three of the four study sub-basins during POR2 and POR3. In comparison, there was little to no evidence of negative changes to low-flow metrics at Westecunk Creek, the southernmost and least developed site, where all low-flow duration metrics increased as well as seasonal minimum consecutive 7-day average flows. Significant increases in monthly minimums (p-value <0.05) at Cedar Creek for spring months (April, May, and June) also were observed. Natural and anthropogenic processes can alter the landscape resulting in concomitant changes in the streamflow regime. There is a need to assess these changes and synthesize the results into a scientifically defensible set of goals and standards that help support the management of environmental flows. This study represents the initial steps in building the hydrologic foundation to inform management and develop future ecological flow targets that balance water availability for human and ecosystem needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed.

New Jersey

Occurrence of volatile organic compounds in selected urban streams in the United States, 1995-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program sampled 37 urban streams throughout the United States for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from 1995 to 2003. These urban streams were selected to (1) characterize stream water quality from areas draining predominantly residential and commercial land uses and (2) determine which natural and human factors affect stream quality. Initial interpretation of the VOC data set is focused on determining which VOCs commonly are found, the range of concentrations, and the temporal distribution (Lopes and Price, 1997). The 37 urban streams sampled had drainage areas that ranged from 23 to 13,000 square kilometers with a median of 71 square kilometers. The urban streams are located in eight major surface-water regions within the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii. The urban streams were sampled for VOCs monthly for about 1 year with some storm samples collected at selected sites (Lopes and Price, 1997). A total of 869 samples (410 samples in the warmer months and 459 samples in the cooler months) were collected and were analyzed for 85 individual VOCs. Data are available at http://infotrek.er.usgs.gov/pls/nawqa/nawqa.home

Scientific Investigations Map

Uncertainty in the Great Lakes water balance

This report describes the Great Lakes hydrologic system and methods used to quantify individual components of the water balance. Potential sources of uncertainty are identified and, where appropriate, alternate or additional data, models, and estimation methods suitable for reducing uncertainties are discussed. Finally, approximate uncertainties of all components are identified, compared, and assessed within the context of net basin supply. Results indicate that average uncertainties in monthly estimates of individual water-balance components may range from 1.5 percent to 45 percent. These uncertainties may cause uncertainties in monthly net basin supply estimates of approximately 2,600 ft 3 /s to 33,500 ft 3 /s for individual Great Lakes.

Great Lake Basin