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USGS2008

Applying the land use portfolio model to estimate natural-hazard loss and risk — A hypothetical demonstration for Ventura County, California

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

California↗

USGS2008

Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering captive young into wild nests), diminishing the importance of nest failure as a limiting factor. Annual survival has been periodically reduced by catastrophes (hurricanes), which have greatly constrained population growth, but survival rates were high under non-catastrophic conditions. Although the importance of factors maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot bottleneck varied throughout the 30-year period of study, we determined their long-term influence using LSA simulations to correlate variation in demographic rates with variation in population growth (k). The bottleneck appears to have been maintained primarily by periodic catastrophes (hurricanes) that reduced adult survival, and secondarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors that resulted in a failure of many adults to nest. The influence of inbreeding through reduced hatching success played a much less significant role, even when additional effects of inbreeding on the production and mortality of young were incorporated into the LSA. Management actions needed to speed recovery include (1) continued nest guarding to minimize the effects of nest failure due to nongenetic causes; (2) creating a second population at another location on the island --a process that was recently initiated--to reduce the chance that hurricane strikes will cause extinction; and (3) determining the causes of the low percentage of breeders in the population and ameliorating them, which would have a large impact on population growth.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2006

Environmental contaminants in fish and their associated risk to piscivorous wildlife in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Organochlorine chemical residues and elemental contaminants were measured in northern pike (Esox lucius), longnose sucker (Catostomus catostomus), and burbot (Lota lota) from 10 sites in the Yukon River Basin (YRB) during 2002. Contaminant concentrations were compared to historical YRB data and to toxicity thresholds for fish and piscivorous wildlife from the scientific literature. A risk analysis was conducted to screen for potential hazards to piscivorous wildlife for contaminants that exceeded literature-based toxicity thresholds. Concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p???-homologs; 1.09-13.6 ng/g), total chlordane (0.67-7.5 ng/g), dieldrin (<0.16-0.6 ng/g), toxaphene (<11-34 ng/g), total PCBs (<20-87 ng/g), TCDD-EQ (???1.7 pg/g), arsenic (0.03-1.95 ??g/g), cadmium (<0.02-0.12 ??g/g), copper (0.41-1.49 ??g/g), and lead (<0.21-0.27 ??g/g) did not exceed toxicity thresholds for growth and reproduction in YRB fish. Concentrations of mercury (0.08-0.65 ??g/g), selenium (0.23-0.85 ??g/g), and zinc (11-56 ??g/g) exceeded toxicity thresholds in one or more samples and were included in the risk analysis for piscivorous wildlife. No effect hazard concentrations (NEHCs) and low effect hazard concentrations (LEHCs), derived from literature-based toxicity reference values and avian and mammalian life history parameters, were calculated for mercury, selenium, and zinc. Mercury concentrations in YRB fish exceeded the NEHCs for all bird and small mammal models, which indicated that mercury concentrations in fish may represent a risk to piscivorous wildlife throughout the YRB. Low risk to piscivorous wildlife was associated with selenium and zinc concentrations in YRB fish. Selenium and zinc concentrations exceeded the NEHCs and LEHCs for only the small bird model. These results indicate that mercury should continue to be monitored and assessed in Alaskan fish and wildlife. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2007

Scale-dependent approaches to modeling spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease.

This e-book is the product of a second workshop that was funded and promoted by the United States Geological Survey to enhance cooperation between states for the management of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The first workshop addressed issues surrounding the statistical design and collection of surveillance data for CWD. The second workshop, from which this document arose, followed logically from the first workshop and focused on appropriate methods for analysis, interpretation, and use of CWD surveillance and related epidemiology data. Consequently, the emphasis of this e-book is on modeling approaches to describe and gain insight of the spatial epidemiology of CWD. We designed this e-book for wildlife managers and biologists who are responsible for the surveillance of CWD in their state or agency. We chose spatial methods that are popular or common in the spatial epidemiology literature and evaluated them for their relevance to modeling CWD. Our opinion of the usefulness and relevance of each method was based on the type of field data commonly collected as part of CWD surveillance programs and what we know about CWD biology, ecology, and epidemiology. Specifically, we expected the field data to consist primarily of the infection status of a harvested or culled sample along with its date of collection (not date of infection), location, and demographic status. We evaluated methods in light of the fact that CWD does not appear to spread rapidly through wild populations, relative to more highly contagious viruses, and can be spread directly from animal to animal or indirectly through environmental contamination. We discovered that many of the wellpublished methods were developed for fast-spreading human diseases, such as influenza and measles. While these methods are applicable to fast spreading wildlife diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease or West Nile virus, many are not likely to work well for CWD. Only limited data exist to evaluate geographic and spatial spread because many locations where we find CWD tend to be locations where samples have just been taken or sample sizes have just become large enough to have a high probability of detecting a low prevalence. Consequently, methods that work well to describe or predict the spread of foot-and-mouth disease throughout England, which occurred within a year, do not work well for describing or predicting CWD spread. We did not exclude methods that we regarded as inappropriate; rather, we included methods that are commonly used for disease epidemiology and then discussed their applicability for modeling the spatial epidemiology of CWD. We hope including inappropriate methods with an explanation of why they are ill-suited for CWD will make it easier to drop them from consideration and explain to others why they were not recommended for spatial modeling of CWD. We organized the three chapters by scale and extent for which each method was developed or best suited. The first chapter covers methods appropriate to multi-jurisdictional or multi-state modeling, which we call “regional” scale. The second chapter covers methods appropriate for within state areas such as wildlife management units or metapopulations, which we call “landscape” scale. The third chapter covers methods appropriate for population or individual-based modeling, which we call “fine” scale. We know this rubric is somewhat artificial because many methods work at multiple scales. We hope, however, that this structure addresses some of the challenges faced by managers that work at local, regional, state, and national scales. Further, the resolution of empirical data often changes with spatial scale, which affects the utility of different modeling approaches. For example, individual-based models work best at modeling spread within populations, while risk analysis is most useful for summarizing data over larger scales such as a region. Because some methods are applicable at several scales, however, we included a graphic at the beginning of each method that indicates the range of scales for which it applies. For example, the graphic to the right indicates that the method is most applicable for regional-scale modeling. There is also a question of resolution as well as scale and extent for each method. CWD surveillance data have been collected over large areas, such as a wildlife management unit or state, but the resolution of the data may be fine scale with GPS locations for many samples. For each method, we described the required resolution of the data and describe the type of data required, as well as what questions the method could answer and how useful the method is, given typical CWD data. For each scale, we presented a focal approach that would be useful for understanding the spatial pattern and epidemiology of CWD, as well as being a useful tool for CWD management. The focal approaches include risk analysis and micromaps for the regional scale, cluster analysis for the landscape scale, and individual based modeling for the fine scale of within population. For each of these methods, we used simulated data and walked through the method step by step to fully illustrate the “how to”, with specifics about what is input and output, as well as what questions the method addresses. We also provided a summary table to, at a glance, describe the scale, questions that can be addressed, and general data required for each method described in this e-book. We hope that this review will be helpful to biologists and managers by increasing the utility of their surveillance data, and ultimately be useful for increasing our understanding of CWD and allowing wildlife biologists and managers to move beyond retroactive fire-fighting to proactive preventative action.

Book↗

USGS2023

Prioritizing the risk and management of introduced species in a landscape with high indigenous biodiversity

Risk analysis protocols for prioritizing the management of non-native species are numerous, yet few incorporate risk and management in the same analysis or accommodate a broad diversity of taxa outside of a specific geographic area. We adapted a protocol that accounts for these factors to address non-native animal species in the Southern California/Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion near the international border in San Diego County, an area with high indigenous biodiversity and high numbers of species of conservation concern. This stepwise, semi-quantitative protocol is applicable to any animal group in any predefined geographic area, relies on consensus-building among taxonomic experts, and has been vetted through previous use and in peer-reviewed literature. Our results show that the final prioritization was driven mainly by management feasibility, with top-ranked species having multitrophic effects that favor other non-native invaders over native residents. Conditions within the assessment area required some modification to the protocol as it was originally designed, namely a shift in emphasis from eradication to control, given that eradication is implausible for most non-native species in the assessment area. We call attention to taxon-specific issues that surfaced during the analysis, identify areas for improvement in this first-ever risk assessment for invasive animal species in the Natural Communities Conservation Plan/Habitat Conservation Plan (NCCP/HCP) reserve system of San Diego County, and provide suggestions for further refinement of the protocol. This study builds on the effort to standardize risk analysis for invasive species globally, given that many of the same invaders present threats to indigenous biodiversity worldwide.

California↗

USGS2023

Identifying invasive species threats, pathways, and impacts to improve biosecurity

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2010

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Analysis↗

USGS2011

Comment on “Comparison between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and flood frequency analysis”

Despite providing an exceptionally clear example of the basics of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), Wang and Ormsbee [2005] nevertheless conclude that “…using PSHA for risk analysis is not only confusing, but is also inappropriate.” I argue here that (1) the results of a PSHA analysis are not confusing and have physical meaning, and (2) the authors' basis for declaring PSHA “inappropriate” is misguided. I note in passing that the authors consistently confuse “risk” with “hazard.” Both PSHA and flood frequency analysis provide estimates of hazard. Risk is the product of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. This discussion is only concerned with hazard.

Eos Science News↗

USGS2011

Overview of prohibited and permitted plant regulatory listing systems

Pest risk analysis is a process that evaluates the risks involved with a proposed species to help determine whether it should be permitted or denied entry into a country, and how the risks could be managed if it is imported. The prohibited listing approach was developed in the late 1800s and early 1900s in response to outbreaks of plant and animals pests such as foot and mouth disease of livestock, Mediterranean fruitfly ( Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann), and Gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar L.). Under this approach, selected species of concern are evaluated to determine if they should be regulated for entry. Under the permitted listing approach that was first used on a national level in Australia in the 1990s, all species that are proposed for introduction are assessed to determine if they should be regulated.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Analysis of regional scale risk to whirling disease in populations of Colorado and Rio Grande cutthroat trout using Bayesian belief network model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis , the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis , respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex , exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Development of a global seismic risk model

Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2008

Environmental contaminants in freshwater fish and their risk to piscivorous wildlife based on a national monitoring program

Organochlorine chemical residues and elemental concentrations were measured in piscivorous and benthivorous fish at 111 sites from large U.S. river basins. Potential contaminant sources such as urban and agricultural runoff, industrial discharges, mine drainage, and irrigation varied among the sampling sites. Our objectives were to provide summary statistics for chemical contaminants and to determine if contaminant concentrations in the fish were a risk to wildlife that forage at these sites. Concentrations of dieldrin, total DDT, total PCBs, toxaphene, TCDD-EQ, cadmium, chromium, mercury, lead, selenium, and zinc exceeded toxicity thresholds to protect fish and piscivorous wildlife in samples from at least one site; most exceedences were for total PCBs, mercury, and zinc. Chemical concentrations in fish from the Mississippi River Basin exceeded the greatest number of toxicity thresholds. Screening level wildlife risk analysis models were developed for bald eagle and mink using no adverse effect levels (NOAELs), which were derived from adult dietary exposure or tissue concentration studies and based primarily on reproductive endpoints. No effect hazard concentrations (NEHC) were calculated by comparing the NOAEL to the food ingestion rate (dietary-based NOAEL) or biomagnification factor (tissue-based NOAEL) of each receptor. Piscivorous wildlife may be at risk from a contaminant if the measured concentration in fish exceeds the NEHC. Concentrations of most organochlorine residues and elemental contaminants represented no to low risk to bald eagle and mink at most sites. The risk associated with pentachloroanisole, aldrin, Dacthal, methoxychlor, mirex, and toxaphene was unknown because NOAELs for these contaminants were not available for bald eagle or mink. Risk differed among modeled species and sites. Our screening level analysis indicates that the greatest risk to piscivorous wildlife was from total DDT, total PCBs, TCDD-EQ, mercury, and selenium. Bald eagles were at greater risk to total DDT and total PCBs than mink, whereas risks of TCDD-EQ, mercury, and selenium were greater to mink than bald eagle. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2013

Derivation of soil screening thresholds to protect chisel-toothed kangaroo rat from uranium mine waste in northern Arizona

Chemical data from soil and weathered waste material samples collected from five uranium mines north of the Grand Canyon (three reclaimed, one mined but not reclaimed, and one never mined) were used in a screening-level risk analysis for the Arizona chisel-toothed kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys microps leucotis ); risks from radiation exposure were not evaluated. Dietary toxicity reference values were used to estimate soil-screening thresholds presenting risk to kangaroo rats. Sensitivity analyses indicated that body weight critically affected outcomes of exposed-dose calculations; juvenile kangaroo rats were more sensitive to the inorganic constituent toxicities than adult kangaroo rats. Species-specific soil-screening thresholds were derived for arsenic (137 mg/kg), cadmium (16 mg/kg), copper (1,461 mg/kg), lead (1,143 mg/kg), nickel (771 mg/kg), thallium (1.3 mg/kg), uranium (1,513 mg/kg), and zinc (731 mg/kg) using toxicity reference values that incorporate expected chronic field exposures. Inorganic contaminants in soils within and near the mine areas generally posed minimal risk to kangaroo rats. Most exceedances of soil thresholds were for arsenic and thallium and were associated with weathered mine wastes.

Arizona↗

USGS1980

Oilspill analysis for the Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait (proposed sale 60) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait (Proposed Sale 60) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all 153 proposed tracts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 60 will result in an expected 4.0 oilspills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.96.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Wake Atoll vessel movement biosecurity program efficacy

Executive Summary The purpose of this Wake Atoll Vessel Movement Biosecurity Program Efficacy document is to provide the United States Air Force (USAF) with an unbiased review of the current (2015; hereafter referred to as the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) biosecurity plan for the military base Wake Island Airfield (WIA) on Wake Atoll (hereafter Wake). Periodic reviews are an integral step for evaluating plan efficacy and updating plans with new information for improving plan effectiveness. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acted as an external expert to provide the first unbiased assessment of the program and observe how it was being implemented. The USAF 2015 Wake Island Biosecurity Management Plan goes beyond sea vessel and container biosecurity; however, those aspects were not included in this evaluation. We used several methods for a quality assurance evaluation of the 2015 sea vessel and shipping container biosecurity program specified in the Biosecurity Plan. Our evaluation included real-time observations in Hawai`i and at Wake. We surveyed cargo staging areas and empty shipping containers before supply shipment and the containers, barge, and marina at Wake after shipment. We used various detection tools and techniques (for example, visual encounter surveys, glue boards, chew cards, camera traps, and so on). We carried out an insect mortality experiment trial using one of the required shipping container biosecurity tools (dichlorvos impregnated pest strips). We also included a table-top review of documentation (largely the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) with respect to our observations to provide an assessment of how well the Biosecurity Plan protocols were carried out and how well they serve their intended purpose. We observed biosecurity concerns in each focal area and stage of cargo handling (before and after barge movement) across all surveys of containers, flat racks, break bulk, warehouses, and dock areas. Using visual inspections, we recorded biosecurity concerns for every empty container we inspected before it was to be stuffed with cargo. Most containers had structural integrity issues (such as holes and damaged floorboards) and sanitation concerns, including live animals and plant matter or seeds. About one third of the containers had mold and a few had wet floorboards or standing water. We detected live animals on the break bulk, and flat racks were in poor condition. Next, we inspected cargo staging areas and noted extensive permeability of the building where cargo was staged for the 2018 resupply shipment and the building that had typically been used. We included the adjacent dock area used for staging break bulk, shipping containers and mooring the barge. We detected more than 5,000 individuals of 105 species. We also detected seeds in each location and scattered vegetation in the dock area, including growing in from the area outside separated by a chain link fence. During surveys at Wake, we observed that 100 percent of the shipping containers, including all containers sent with required biosecurity tools, had live animals. The barge had only one unsecured snap trap for intercepting rodents aboard, we saw areas with fairly deep layers of dirt (or soil; we did not examine it to determine its properties), and there was plant matter with seed heads on the barge gangway that could easily be transported onto the barge. There was also only one snap trap station that was improperly placed on the dock. We also observed piled wood and vegetation nearby that could provide refuge to potential stowaway animals escaping. Combined, surveys of the containers, staging areas, barges, and receiving area in Hawai`i and at Wake resulted in detection of more than 9,000 individuals of 131 animal species; nearly 4,000 individuals of 62 species were detected in surveys of containers once they had arrived at Wake. None of the species identified are known to be native to Wake. Our preliminary risk analysis of all species detected included eight species that we scored as high risk of potentially negative effects to biodiversity, infrastructure, or human health should they arrive at Wake and become established. Six of these species were only recorded using tools not clearly required by the Biosecurity Plan or being used to implement the plan. We observed that the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in the cargo staging area did not target the suite nor number of species present. Our analysis also indicated the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in shipping containers were inadequate to handle the volume of organisms that were in the containers. The insect mortality trial experiment showed the pest strips were highly effective for only one of the three species tested, leaving uncertainty about how effective they are across the suite of potential species stowing away in cargo and containers. Base Operating Support (BOS) did not carry out all Biosecurity Plan actions, but we also noted the document uses terminology such as “recommendation” as opposed to “requirement” which may lead contractors to consider those actions as optional. However, USAF provided evidence of BOS training and follow up; this included detailed identification of specific requirements for some of the biosecurity actions that we did not observe being carried out. The 2015 Biosecurity Plan contains critical and useful components that seem to be well carried out. However, we also saw discrepancies, weaknesses, or both across methods and protocols currently used for Wake Atoll biosecurity. We observed shortcomings at each stage of our survey as well as in the plan as written, and we suggest general modifications to the Biosecurity Plan for consideration to potentially strengthen biosecurity overall. Prevention is the most efficient and cost-effective biosecurity measure. Based on our findings, we see possible solutions to improve existing preventative biosecurity efforts and reduce potential incursion at Wake. These potential solutions include creating and implementing the following: Minimum cargo staging area sanitation and permeability standards, Minimum shipping container integrity and sanitation standards, Stand-alone inspection protocols, Inspection checklists, Monitoring protocols, Accountability reporting, Horizon scanning for prioritizing and targeting species of highest concern, Expansion of educational materials and outreach, Schedules for biosecurity plan reviews and updates Management of invasive species enhances capability to protect human health and the environment as well as to advance mission accomplishment. Biosecurity plans are an integral component for addressing invasive species. Periodic evaluation of the efficacy of these plans is useful for identifying elements that are working well and for illuminating those that can be improved. Evaluations encourage consideration of new tools and adaptation of processes to achieve better outcomes and accommodate potential future threats more efficiently and more cost effectively.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Environmental controls on drainage behavior of an ephemeral stream

Streambed drainage was measured at the cessation of 26 ephemeral streamflow events in Rillito Creek, Tucson, Arizona from August 2000 to June 2002 using buried time domain reflectometry (TDR) probes. An unusual drainage response was identified, which was characterized by sharp drainage from saturation to near field capacity at each depth with an increased delay between depths. We simulated the drainage response using a variably saturated numerical flow model representing a two-layer system with a high permeability layer overlying a lower permeability layer. Both the observed data and the numerical simulation show a strong correlation between the drainage velocity and the temperature of the stream water. A linear combination of temperature and the no-flow period preceding flow explained about 90% of the measured variations in drainage velocity. Evaluation of this correlative relationship with the one-dimensional numerical flow model showed that the observed temperature fluctuations could not reproduce the magnitude of variation in the observed drainage velocity. Instead, the model results indicated that flow duration exerts the most control on drainage velocity, with the drainage velocity decreasing nonlinearly with increasing flow duration. These findings suggest flow duration is a primary control of water availability for plant uptake in near surface sediments of an ephemeral stream, an important finding for estimating the ecological risk of natural or engineered changes to streamflow patterns. Correlative analyses of soil moisture data, although easy and widely used, can result in erroneous conclusions of hydrologic cause—effect relationships, and demonstrating the need for joint physically-based numerical modeling and data synthesis for hypothesis testing to support quantitative risk analysis.

Arizona↗

USGS2004

The bioavailability of chemicals in soil for earthworms

The bioavailability of chemicals to earthworms can be modified dramatically by soil physical/chemical characteristics, yet expressing exposure as total chemical concentrations does not address this problem. In order to understand the effects of modifying factors on bioavailability, one must measure and express chemical bioavailability to earthworms in a consistent, logical manner. This can be accomplished by direct biological measures of bioavailability (e.g., bioaccumulation, critical body residues), indirect biological measures of bioavailability (e.g., biomarkers, reproduction), or indirect chemical measures of bioavailability (e.g., chemical or solid-phase extracts of soil). If indirect chemical measures of bioavailability are to be used, they must be correlated with some biological response. Bioavailability can be incorporated into ecological risk assessment during risk analysis, primarily in the estimation of exposure. However, in order to be used in the site-specific ecological risk assessment of chemicals, effects concentrations must be developed from laboratory toxicity tests based on exposure estimates utilizing techniques that measure the bioavailable fraction of chemicals in soil, not total chemical concentrations. ?? 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Testing a generalizable machine learning workflow for aquatic invasive species on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in northwest Montana

Biological invasions are accelerating worldwide, causing major ecological and economic impacts in aquatic ecosystems. The urgent decision-making needs of invasive species managers can be better met by the integration of biodiversity big data with large-domain models and data-driven products. Remotely sensed data products can be combined with existing invasive species occurrence data via machine learning models to provide the proactive spatial risk analysis necessary for implementing coordinated and agile management paradigms across large scales. We present a workflow that generates rapid spatial risk assessments on aquatic invasive species using occurrence data, spatially explicit environmental data, and an ensemble approach to species distribution modeling using five machine learning algorithms. For proof of concept and validation, we tested this workflow using extensive spatial and temporal hybridization and occurrence data from a well-studied, ongoing, and climate-driven species invasion in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana, USA. Rainbow Trout (RBT; Oncorhynchus mykiss), an introduced species in the Flathead River basin, compete and readily hybridize with native Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT; O. clarkii lewisii), and the spread of RBT individuals and their alleles has been tracked for decades. We used remotely sensed and other geospatial data as key environmental predictors for projecting resultant habitat suitability to geographic space. The ensemble modeling technique yielded high accuracy predictions relative to 30-fold cross-validated datasets (87% 30-fold cross-validated accuracy score). Both top predictors and model performance relative to these predictors matched current understanding of the drivers of RBT invasion and habitat suitability, indicating that temperature is a major factor influencing the spread of invasive RBT and hybridization with native WCT. The congruence between more time-consuming modeling approaches and our rapid machine-learning approach suggest that this workflow could be applied more broadly to provide data-driven management information for early detection of potential invaders.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗