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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events and implications for decision-making

December–February precipitation in southern Africa during recent El Niño events is studied by distinguishing circulation and precipitation responses during strong and moderate-to-weak events. We find that while both strong and moderate-to-weak El Niño events tend to dry southern Africa, the pattern and magnitude of precipitation anomalies in the region are different, with strong El Niño events resulting in rainfall deficits often less than −0.88 standardized units and deficits of only about half that for the moderate-to-weak case. Additionally, the likelihood of southern Africa receiving less than climatologic precipitation is approximately 80% for strong El Niño events compared to just over 60% for moderate-to-weak El Niño. Strong El Niño events are found to substantially disrupt onshore moisture transports from the Indian Ocean and increase geopotential heights within the Angola Low. Since El Niño is the most predictable component of the climate system that influences southern Africa precipitation, the information provided by this assessment of the likelihood of dry conditions can serve to benefit early warning systems.

Environmental Research Letters

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of snow refugia in the rain-snow transition zone of north-central Idaho

Knowledge of snow cover distribution and disappearance dates over a wide range of scales is imperative for understanding hydrological dynamics and for habitat management of wildlife species that rely on snow cover. Identification of snow refugia, or places with relatively late snow disappearance dates (SDDs) compared to surrounding areas, is especially important as climate change alters snow cover timing and duration. The purpose of this study was to increase understanding of snow refugia in complex terrain spanning the rain-snow transition zone at fine spatial and temporal scales. To accomplish this objective, we used remote cameras to provide relatively high temporal and spatial resolution measurements on snowpack conditions. We built linear models to relate SDDs at the monitoring sites to topoclimatic and canopy cover metrics. One model to quantify SDDs included elevation, aspect, and an interaction between canopy cover and cold-air pooling potential. High-elevation, north-facing sites in cold-air pools (CAPs) had the latest SDDs, but isolated lower-elevation points also exhibited relatively late potential SDDs. Importantly, canopy cover had a much stronger effect on SDDs in CAPs than in non-CAPs, indicating that best practices in forest management for snow refugia could vary across microtopography. A second model that included in situ hydroclimate observations (December – February (DJF) temperature and March 1 snow depth) indicated that March 1 snow depth had little impact on SDD at the coldest winter temperatures, and that DJF temperatures had a stronger effect on SDD at lower snow depths, implying that the relative importance of snowfall and temperature could vary across hydroclimatic contexts in their impact on snow refugia. This new understanding of factors influencing snow refugia can guide forest management actions to increase snow retention and inform management of snow-dependent wildlife species in complex terrain.

Environmental Research Letters

TerraSAR-X interferometry reveals small-scale deformation associated with the summit eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

On 19 March 2008, a small explosive eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, heralded the formation of a new vent along the east wall of Halema‘uma‘u Crater. In the ensuing years, the vent widened due to collapses of the unstable rim and conduit wall; some collapses impacted an actively circulating lava pond and resulted in small explosive events. We used synthetic aperture radar data collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite, a joint venture between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and EADS Astrium, to identify and analyze small-scale surface deformation around the new vent during 2008-2012. Lidar data were used to construct a digital elevation model to correct for topographic phase, allowing us to generate differential interferograms with a spatial resolution of about 3 m in Kīlauea's summit area. These interferograms reveal subsidence within about 100 m of the rim of the vent. Small baseline subset time series analysis suggests that the subsidence rate is not constant and, over time, may provide an indication of vent stability and potential for rim and wall collapse -- information with obvious hazard implications. The deformation is not currently detectable by other space- or ground-based techniques.

Hawai'i

Relational database for horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios

Frequency‐dependent horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) of Fourier amplitudes from three‐component recordings can provide useful information for site response modeling. However, such information is not incorporated into most ground‐motion models, including those from Next‐Generation Attenuation projects, which instead use the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠ V S "> V S VS ⁠ ) in the upper 30 m of the site and sediment depth terms. To facilitate utilization of HVSR, we developed a publicly accessible relational database. This database is adapted from a similar repository for V S "> V S VS data and provides microtremor‐based HVSR data (mHVSR) and supporting metadata, but not parameters derived from the data. Users can interact with the data directly within a web portal that contains a graphical user interface (GUI) or through external tools that perform cloud‐based computations. Within the database GUI, the median horizontal‐component mHVSR can be plotted against frequency, with the mean and mean ± one standard deviation (representing variability across time windows) provided. Using external interactive tools (provided as a Jupyter Notebook and an R script), users can replot mHVSR (as in the database) or create polar plots. These tools can also derive parameters of potential interest for modeling purposes, including a binary variable indicating whether an mHVSR plot contains peaks, as well as the fitted properties of those peaks (frequencies, amplitudes, and widths). Metadata are also accessible, which includes site location, details about the instruments used to make the measurements, and data processing information related to windowing, antitrigger routines, and filtering.

Seismological Research Letters

Recordings from the deepest borehole in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

The recordings at the deepest vertical strong-motion array (VSAS) from three small events, the 21 October 2004 Tiptonville, Tennessee, earthquake; the 10 February 2005 Arkansas earthquake; and the 2 June 2005 Ridgely, Tennessee, earthquake show some interesting wave-propagation phenomena through the soils: the S-wave is attenuated from 260 m to 30 m depth and amplified from 30 m to the surface. The S-wave arrival times from the three events yielded different shear-wave velocity estimates for the soils. These different estimates may be the result of different incident angles of the S-waves due to different epicentral distances. The epicentral distances are about 22 km, 110 km, and 47 km for the Tiptonville, Arkansas, and Ridgely earthquakes, respectively. These recordings show the usefulness of the borehole strong-motion array. The vertical strong-motion arrays operated by the University of Kentucky have started to accumulate recordings that will provide a database for scientists and engineers to study the effects of the near-surface soils on the strong ground motion in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. More information about the Kentucky Seismic and Strong-Motion Network can be found at www.uky.edu/KGS/geologichazards. The digital recordings are available at ftp://kgsweb.uky.edu.

Seismological Research Letters

Western U.S. geologic deformation model for use in the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023

Fault geometry and slip rates are key input data for geologic deformation models, which are a fundamental component of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). However, geologic sources for PSHA have traditionally been limited to faults with field‐based slip rate constraints, which results in underrepresentation of known, but partially characterized, active faults. Here, we evaluate fault geometries and geologic fault slip rates for the western United States to construct a new geologic deformation model for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023 update (NSHM23). In previous NSHM iterations, only faults with published geologic slip rates were included. In the NSHM23 fault sections database compilation, this inclusion criterion was expanded to include faults without known slip rates. In this updated geologic deformation model, preferred slip rates and associated uncertainty distributions are incorporated for faults with slip rates derived from field studies. For faults without site‐specific slip rates, we evaluate a suite of uncertainty distributions derived from broad slip rate categories in the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Fault and Fold Database. Preferred slip rate distributions are selected via comparison with geodetic strain rates in tectonic subregions. The resultant moment of the geologic deformation model is generally in deficit compared with the geodetic moment within each region. Primary advances in the NSHM23 geologic deformation model include the following: (1) slip rates are presented as preferred values with uncertainties rather than single values; (2) the representation of the western U.S. active fault network is more complete; and (3) the geologic deformation model leverages geodetic information to assess regional constraints on geologic fault slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters

Subsurface vertical connectivity shapes solute transport to montane streams: Insights from watershed-scale geophysics-informed modeling

Headwater catchments provide essential water and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. The timing and evolution of their transport is shaped in part by the “invisible” subsurface structure but have been largely unexplored at the watershed scale. This raises a fundamental question: how and to what extent does subsurface structure influence streamflow and solute transport in montane watersheds? Here, we test controls of three-dimensionally resolved subsurface structure on solute transport, which reflects source waters and water residence time. We integrate the geophysically mapped architecture of Coal Creek, a headwater catchment in the Colorado River Basin, into numerical flow-transport models. Our results reveal greater vertical connectivity elongates flow paths and enhances deep groundwater contributions to streams, therefore substantially influencing the timing and magnitude of solute transport. In contrast, watershed-integrated outlet discharge can be predicted without high-resolution subsurface information. These findings demonstrate incorporating subsurface architecture is critical for predicting ecosystem health and contaminant transport.

Colorado

Structural underpinnings and neotectonics of the southern Illinois Basin: An overview

The southern end of the Illinois Basin is one of the most structurally complex regions in the Midcontinent United States. Two major structural elements characterize this part of the basin: (1) A broad southwestward-plunging cratonic depression extends across central Illinois and southwestern Indiana. Investigations of historical and prehistorical earthquakes in this part of the basin indicate that moderate to high earthquake potential exists; the seismogenic sources, however, remain enigmatic. (2) The southernmost part of the basin is underlain by the Reelfoot Rift and Rough Creek Graben, a rift system that formed during late Precambrian to Middle Cambrian time. Geodynamic processes operating within the rift since the late Precambrian have had a major influence on the tectonic, diagenetic, and depositional history of the region. In addition, tectonic compressive stress appears to be reactivating ancient faults within the Reelfoot Rift, resulting in coherent linear segments of earthquake epicenters called the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Geological and geophysical information suggests that the cause of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is unrelated to that in the region north of the rift system.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri

Exotic Seismic Events Catalog (ESEC) Data Product

Nonearthquake seismic events from sources such as landslides, debris flows, dam collapses, floods, glaciers, and avalanches are rarely included in traditional earthquake catalogs. The new Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Data Management Center Exotic Seismic Events Catalog data product provides information on such events to help accelerate research in the area of environmental seismology. This catalog initially offers information on 113 events in four general categories consisting of flows, lahars, debris flows and outburst floods (17 events); rock or debris falls (23 events); rock, ice, or debris avalanches and slides (68 events); and snow avalanches (5 events). This database will be expanded as information regarding new recent and historical events becomes available. This catalog is now available to the research community at IRIS (see Data and Resources ).

Seismological Research Letters

The first instrumentally detected hydrothermal explosion in Yellowstone National Park

Hydrothermal explosions are one of the geological hazards most likely to impact people in Yellowstone National Park, but their frequency is poorly known. Infrasound and seismic sensors identified an explosion in Norris Geyser Basin on 15 April 2024, at 14:56 MDT (20:56 UTC)—the first instrumentally detected hydrothermal explosion in the Yellowstone region. The event affected an area tens of meters across, resulting in fractured ground, a shallow explosion crater, and a field of ejecta. There were no immediate geophysical precursors, but in the preceding years elevated discharge of thermal water altered the color, temperature, and level of a nearby small lake. Expanded seismo-acoustic monitoring in Yellowstone National Park could be useful for detecting small hydrothermal explosions and constraining their frequency, magnitude, energy release, and locations—information that could be used to better assess and mitigate hazards for the millions of people that visit the park each year.

Wyoming

Distinct pathways to stakeholder use versus academic contribution in climate adaptation research

Challenges facing societies around the globe as they plan for and adapt to climate change are so large that usable, research-driven recommendations to inform management actions are urgently needed. We sought to understand factors that influence the variation of academic contribution and use of collaborative research on climate change. We surveyed researchers ( n = 31), program-leaders ( n = 5), and stakeholders ( n = 81) from projects supported by a federally funded network across the United States. Our results suggest that peer-reviewed publications do not lead to use, but frequency of meetings with stakeholders significantly increased use. Overall, the factors needed for projects to have high degrees of academic contributions are distinct from those needed to be useful to stakeholders. Furthermore, leadership perceptions of use of projects were significantly different from users. Our quantitative results can inform future requests for proposals and better enable researchers using collaborative approaches to conduct science that is more often used by stakeholders.

Conservation Letters

Now trending … Earthquake information

The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program has overall successfully fulfilled its mission of providing timely earthquake information via web applications and other methods. Imagine a single month of earthquake data delivery, serving 3.6 billion total data requests, including 29 million pageviews by 7.1 million users, 606 million automated data feeds, and 45 million catalog downloads. Yet, some challenges and lapses in delivery have happened at critical times, including during the Ridgecrest earthquakes in 2019. We delve into the evolving demand for real‐time information as well as the technologies put in place to support the ever‐growing number of users in an increasingly mobile world.

Seismological Research Letters

Background seismic noise levels among the Caribbean network and the role of station proximity to coastline

The amplitude and frequency content of background seismic noise is highly variable with geographic location. Understanding the characteristics and behavior of background seismic noise as a function of location can inform approaches to improve network performance and in turn increase earthquake detection capabilities. Here, we calculate power spectral density estimates in one‐hour windows for over 15 yr of vertical‐component data from the nine‐station Caribbean network (CU) and look at background noise within the 0.05–300 s period range. We describe the most visually apparent features observed at the CU stations. One of the most prominent features occurs in the 0.75–3 s band for which power levels are systematically elevated and decay as a function of proximity to the coastline. Further examination of this band on 1679 contiguous USArray Transportable Array stations reveals the same relationship. Such a relationship with coastal distance is not observed in the 4–8 s range more typical of globally observed secondary microseisms. A simple surface‐wave amplitude decay model fits the observed decay well with geometric spreading as the most important factor for stations near the coast (<∼50 km). The model indicates that power levels are strongly influenced by proximity to coastline at 0.75–3 s. This may be because power from nearshore wave action at 0.75–3 s overwhelms more distant and spatially distributed secondary microseism generation. Application of this basic model indicates that a power reduction of ∼25 dB can be achieved by simply installing the seismometer 25 km away from the coastline. This finding may help to inform future site locations and array design thereby improving network performance and data quality, and subsequently earthquake detection capabilities.

Seismological Research Letters

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Oregon

USGS near-real-time products-and their use-for the 2018 Anchorage earthquake

In the minutes to hours after a major earthquake, such as the recent 2018 M w "> M w 7.1 Anchorage event, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces a suite of interconnected earthquake products that provides diverse information ranging from basic earthquake source parameters to loss estimates. The 2018 Anchorage earthquake is the first major domestic earthquake to occur since several new USGS products have been developed, thus providing an opportunity to discuss the newly expanded USGS earthquake product suite, its timeliness, performance, and reception. Overall, the products were relatively timely, accurate, well received, and widely used, including by the media, who used information and visualizations from many products to frame their early reporting. One downside of the codependence of multiple products is that reasonable updates to upstream products (e.g., magnitude and source characterization) can result in significant changes to downstream products; this was the case for the Anchorage earthquake. However, the coverage of strong‐motion stations and felt reports was so dense that the ShakeMap and downstream products were relatively insensitive to changes in magnitude or fault‐plane orientation once the ground‐motion data were available. Shaking and loss indicators initially fluctuated in the first hour or two after the earthquake, but they stabilized quickly. To understand how the products are being used and how effectively they are being communicated, we analyze the media coverage of USGS earthquake products. Most references to USGS products occurred within the first 48 hr after the event. The lack of coverage after 48 hr could indicate that longer‐term products addressing what actions the USGS is taking or what early reconnaissance has revealed might be useful for those people wanting additional information about the earthquake.

Alaska

Western U.S. deformation models for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in the 2014 NSHM, as well as hundreds of new faults considered as active sources for the 2023 NSHM. These data are interpreted by four geodetic models of deformation that estimate fault slip rates and their uncertainties together with off‐fault moment release rates. Key innovations in the 2023 NSHM relative to past practice include (1) the addition of two new (in addition to two existing) deformation models, (2) the revision and expansion of the geologic slip rate database, (3) accounting for fault creep through development of a creep‐rate model that is employed by the four deformation models, and (4) accounting for time‐dependent earthquake‐cycle effects through development of viscoelastic models of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas fault and the Cascadia subduction zone. The effort includes development of a geologic deformation model that complements the four geodetic models. The current deformation models provide a new assessment of outstanding discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates, at the same time highlighting the need for both geologic and geodetic slip rates to robustly inform the earthquake rate model.

Seismological Research Letters

Revised earthquake geology inputs for the central and eastern United States and southeast Canada for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model

It has been nearly a decade since updates to seismic and fault sources in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) were last assessed for the 2012 Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for nuclear facilities (CEUS-SSCn) and 2014 United States Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. In advance of the 2023 NSHM update, we created 3 related geospatial databases to summarize and characterize new fault source information for the CEUS. These include fault section, fault-zone polygon, and earthquake geology (fault slip rate, earthquake recurrence intervals) databases which document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in this region. The 2012 CEUS-SSCn and 2014 NSHM fault models served as a foundation, as we revised and added fault sources where new published studies documented significant changes to our understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. We added 9 new fault sections that meet the criteria of (1) a length ≥7 km, (2) evidence of recurrent Quaternary tectonic activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer-reviewed source. The prior CEUS models only included 6 fault sections (sources) and 10 fault-zone polygons (previously called repeating large magnitude earthquake (RLME) polygons). The revised databases include 15 fault sections and 10 fault zone polygons. Updates to the faults constitute a 150% increase in fault sections, but no change in the number of fault-zone polygons, although some fault-zone polygons differ from RLME polygons used in prior models. No faults were removed from past models. Several seismic zones and suspected faults were evaluated but not included in this update due to a lack of information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. These updates to the fault sections, fault-zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases will inform fault geometry and activity rates of CEUS sources during the 2023 NSHM implementation.

Seismological Research Letters

#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media and social media during the Bombay Beach 2016 Swarm

Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake could be triggered. Within 1–2 days, different forecast models were used to evaluate the likelihood of a larger event with two agencies (the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services) releasing probabilities and forecasts for larger earthquakes. Our research explores communication and news media efforts, as well as how people on a microblogging social media site (Twitter) responded to these forecasts. Our findings suggest that news media used a combination of information sources, basing their articles on what they learned from social media, as well as using information provided by government agencies. As the swarm slowed down, there is evidence of the continued interplay between news media and social media, with the USGS issuing revised probability reports and scientists from the USGS and other institutions participating in media interviews. In reporting on the swarm, news media often used language more generally than the scientists; terms such as probability, likelihood, chance, and possibility were used interchangeably. Knowledge of how news media used scientific information from the 2016 Bombay Beach forecasts can assist local, state, and federal agencies in developing effective communication strategies to respond to future earthquakes.

California