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Results for “Regional Environmental Change”

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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS1998

Mapping global grassland ecosystems: A comparison of four data sets

Grassland ecosystems have broad global geographic distribution, occurring in tropical and temperate latitudes and from near sea level to high mountain slopes. The author lists the areas by continent of the world's grasslands as depicted in four global land cover data sets. Grasslands, by definition, include regions where the dominant vegetative cover is herbaceous. Functionally, they include managed rangelands and pastures. These ecosystems have been experiencing alterations such as changes in productivity, desertification, influx of exotic species, and conversion to agriculture. Some of the largest temperate grassland areas have been subjected to broad-scale land use conversion. For example, the central plains of North America have been largely converted into the "world's most productive dryland wheat region". Grassland regions exhibit sensitivity to changes in environmental conditions. For example, the boundaries between grasslands and other vegetation types, as well as between different grassland types, on the North American plains are subject to change based on factors such as available exhibit sensitivity to changes in moisture, precipitation, length of growing season, or maximum temperature within the growing season. In global climate change scenarios, there are predicted changes for such environmental factors, however the magnitude and location for the changes are as yet unclear. In some cases, climate changes coupled with the human-induced changes of grasslands are expected to intensify such processes as desertification or degradation.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2008

Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) or, more specifically, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful and rapidly proliferating tool in ecology and global change biology. ENMs attempt to capture associations between a species and its environment and are often used to draw biological inferences, to predict potential occurrences in unoccupied regions and to forecast future distributions under environmental change. The accuracy of ENMs, however, hinges critically on the quality of occurrence data. ENMs often use haphazardly collected data rather than data collected across the full spectrum of existing environmental conditions. Moreover, it remains unclear how processes affecting ENM predictions operate at different spatial scales. The scale (i.e. grain size) of analysis may be dictated more by the sampling regime than by biologically meaningful processes. The aim of our study is to jointly quantify how issues relating to region and scale affect ENM predictions using an economically important and ecologically damaging invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Location: California, USA. Methods: We analysed the relationship between sampling sufficiency, regional differences in environmental parameter space and cell size of analysis and resampling environmental layers using two independently collected sets of presence/absence data. Differences in variable importance were determined using model averaging and logistic regression. Model accuracy was measured with area under the curve (AUC) and Cohen's kappa. Results: We first demonstrate that insufficient sampling of environmental parameter space can cause large errors in predicted distributions and biological interpretation. Models performed best when they were parametrized with data that sufficiently sampled environmental parameter space. Second, we show that altering the spatial grain of analysis changes the relative importance of different environmental variables. These changes apparently result from how environmental constraints and the sampling distributions of environmental variables change with spatial grain. Conclusions: These findings have clear relevance for biological inference. Taken together, our results illustrate potentially general limitations for ENMs, especially when such models are used to predict species occurrences in novel environments. We offer basic methodological and conceptual guidelines for appropriate sampling and scale matching. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2008

Micropaleontologic record of late Pliocene and Quaternary paleoenvironments in the northern Albemarle Embayment, North Carolina, U.S.A.

Micropaleontological data provide a strong actualistic basis for detailed interpretations of Quaternary paleoenvironmental change. The 90 m-thick Quaternary record of the Albemarle Embayment in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain of the USA provides an excellent opportunity to use such an approach in a region where the details of Quaternary environmental change are poorly known. The foraminiferal record in nine cores from the northern Outer Banks, east of Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, indicates the deposition of subhorizontal, mostly open-marine early to late Pleistocene units unconformably upon a basement of late Pliocene reduced-oxygen, fine-grained, shelf-basin deposits. Pollen data record several warm–cool fluctuations within the early to mid-Pleistocene deposits. Diatom data indicate that some fresh and brackish-water units occur within the generally open-marine Pleistocene succession. A channel cut by the paleo-Roanoke River during the last glacial sea-level lowstand occurs in the northern part of the study area. Pollen indicates that the basal fluvial valley fill accumulated in cooler than modern climate conditions in the latest Pleistocene. Overlying silts and muds accumulated under cool climatic, estuarine conditions according to diatom and pollen data. Radiocarbon ages from the estuarine deposits indicate that the bulk of these sediments accumulated during the latest Pleistocene. The estuarine channel-fill deposits are overlain by Holocene open-marine sands deposited as the rising sea transgressed into the estuary approximately 8.5 to 9.0 kyr BP. Within the barrier island drill cores of this study, fully marine sedimentation occurred throughout the Holocene. However, immediately west of the present barrier island, mid- to late Holocene estuarine deposits underlie the modern Albemarle Sound. The islands that currently form a continuous barrier across the mouth of Albemarle Sound have a complex history of Holocene construction and destruction and large portions of them may be less than 3 kyr old. The barrier island sands overlie open-marine sands of Colington Shoal in the north and to the south overlie fluvial and marine sand filling paleo-Roanoke tributary valleys. The Pleistocene sediments underlying the northern Outer Banks study area are mainly of open inner to mid-shelf origin. If, as is likely, sea level continues to rise, a return to such environmental conditions is likely in the near future.

North Carolina↗
USGS1978

Monitoring crustal deformation in the Geysers-Clear Lake geothermal area, California

Geodetic surveys since 1972-73 reveal significant crustal deformation in The Geysers-Clear Lake region. Resurveys of precise control networks are measuring both vertical and horizontal ground movement, with most of the change continuing in the area of geothermal fluid withdrawal. Preliminary evidence suggests right-lateral horizontal movement on northwest-trending fault systems and vertical and horizontal compression of the deep geothermal reservoir system. A direct correlation is suggested between ground-surface deformation and subsurface pressure changes in the reservoir system. Although surface changes appear too small to be of environmental concern in The Geysers-Clear Lake region, they indicate hydrodynamic changes in the reservoir of significant import. Two types of vertical changes in The Geysers production area are indicated in the 1973-77 data--(a) a regional subsidence between the Collayomi and Mercuryville fault zones and (b) local subsidence directly related to the area of principal steam production. Maximum subsidence of 13 centimeters in 4? years occurred in the area of most concentrated steam withdrawals and where fluid-pressure declines were near maximum. Subsidence rates throughout the production area from 1973 to 1975 were about half the 1975-77 rates in apparent correlation with pressure changes measured in the reservoir system. Horizontal ground movement as great as 2.0 centimeters per year, generally inward toward the center of production, was measured around the perimeter of the steam production area.

California↗
USGS2004

Characterization and comparison of phytoplankton in selected lakes of five Great Lakes area national parks

Phytoplankton species have been widely used as indicators of lake conditions, and they may be useful for detecting changes in overall lake condition. In an attempt to inventory and monitor its natural resources, the National Park Service wants to establish a monitoring program for aquatic resources in the Great Lakes Cluster National Parks. This study sought to establish baseline information on the phytoplankton and water chemistry of selected lakes in five national parks in a preliminary effort toward establishing a long-term monitoring program. Phytoplankton and water chemistry samples were collected from ten lakes in five national parks over a two-year period. A total of 176 taxa were identified during the study. Northern lakes generally had higher Shannon-Wiener diversity and clustered together in similarity. Lakes exhibited a south to north gradient of many water chemistry variables, with northern lakes having lower hardness, sulfate, turbidity, and temperature and higher dissolved oxygen. Chloride and sulfate concentrations were the variables that best explained variation among phytoplankton in the ten lakes. A monitoring plan will have to incorporate the differences among lakes, but by coordinating the effort, comparisons within and among parks and other regions will prove useful for determining environmental change.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗
USGS2020

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous United States national land change monitoring capability: The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey has implemented a capability to monitor land surface change called the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative. This paper describes the methodological foundations and lessons learned during development and testing of the LCMAP approach. Testing and evaluation of a suite of 10 annual land cover and land surface change data sets over six diverse study areas across the United States revealed good agreement with other published maps (overall agreement ranged from 73% to 87%) as well as several challenges that needed to be addressed to meet the goals of robust, repeatable, and geographically consistent monitoring results from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. First, the high spatial and temporal variability of observational frequency led to differences in the number of changes identified, so CCDC was modified such that change detection is dependent on observational frequency. Second, the CCDC classification methodology was modified to improve its ability to characterize gradual land surface changes. Third, modifications were made to the classification element of CCDC to improve the representativeness of training data, which necessitated replacing the random forest algorithm with a boosted decision tree. Following these modifications, assessment of prototype Version 1 LCMAP results showed improvements in overall agreement (ranging from 85% to 90%).

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2012

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2010

Theme section on “Mesophotic coral ecosystems: Characterization, ecology, and management”

Mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) are characterized by the presence of light-dependent corals and associated communities that are typically found at depths ranging from 30 to 40 m and extending to over 150 m in tropical and subtropical regions. The dominant communities providing structural habitat in the mesophotic zone can be comprised of coral, sponge, and algal species. Because working in this depth range is constrained by traditional SCUBA limits, less is known about corals and associated organisms there compared to shallower coral communities. Following the first-ever gathering of international scientists to review and discuss existing knowledge of MCEs, this issue focuses on the ecological characterization, geomorphology, and concept of MCEs as refugia for shallow-water populations. The review and research papers comprising this special issue reflect the current scientific understanding of these ecosystems and the underlying mechanisms that regulate them, as well as potential resource management implications. It is important to understand the value and role of mesophotic coral ecosystems in tropical and subtropical regions as these areas face increasing environmental change and human impacts

Coral Reefs↗
USGS2012

February 2012 workshop jumpstarts the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network

The Mekong River in Southeast Asia travels through a basin rich in natural resources. The river originates on the northern slope of the world's tallest mountains, the Himalaya Range, and then drops elevation quickly through steep mountain gorges, tumbling out of China into Myanmar (Burma) and the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). The precipitous terrain of Lao PDR and Thailand generates interest in the river and its tributaries for hydropower development. The terrain, soils, water, and climate make it one of the world's most biologically rich regions. The Mekong's bounty is again on display in the Mekong River Delta, where rice production has successfully been increased to high levels making Vietnam second only to Thailand as the world's largest rice exporters. At least 800 fish species contribute to the natural resource bounty of the Mekong River and are the basis for one of the world's most productive fisheries that provide the primary protein source to more than 50 million people. Against this backdrop of rich natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with the consulting firm FISHBIO, colleagues from the international Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute, and a broad contingent of Southeast Asian representatives and partners from abroad to increase knowledge of the Mekong River fisheries and to develop the capacity of permanent residents to investigate and understand these fisheries resources. With the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) region facing the likelihood of significant environmental changes as a result of both human activities and global climate change, enhancing environmental understanding is critical. To encourage cooperation among the LMB scientists and managers in the study of the Mekong River's fisheries, FISHBIO and the USGS, with generous support from the U.S. State Department, hosted a workshop in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in February 2012. Workshop participants were from Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Representatives from the governments, universities, nongovernmental organizations, and the Mekong River Commission discussed current and potential methods and mechanisms of the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network. The goals of the workshop were to determine if the Network and associated databases were of interest and value to the LMB nations, to determine if future fisheries monitoring data would be comparable among the nations, and to establish methods and an organizational structure for collaborating on future monitoring and research. The participants in this international workshop agreed that the Network would be useful but would require additional funding to secure their full participation. The USGS and FISHBIO are collaboratively seeking additional funding to expand research participation and projects in all four LMB nations. If the Network can facilitate cooperation among many fisheries researchers in the LMB, the basin would become a model of cooperative international fishery studies and would increase the understanding of a river basin rich in natural resources.

Phnom Penh↗
USGS2001

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2014

Strategic needs of water on the Yukon: An interdisciplinary approach to studying hydrology and climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin

Strategic Needs of Water on the Yukon (SNOWY) is an interdisciplinary research project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF; http://www.nsf.gov/ ). The SNOWY team is made up of a diverse group of researchers from different backgrounds and organizations. This partnership between scientists from different disciplines (hydrology, geography, and social science), government agencies, nonprofit organizations, universities, and Lower Yukon River Basin (LYRB) and Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta communities provided an opportunity to study the effects of climate change using a holistic approach. The Arctic and Subarctic are experiencing environmental change at a rate faster than the rest of the world, and the lack of historical baseline data in these often remote locations makes understanding and predicting regional climate change difficult. This project focused on collecting data to fill in these gaps by using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to tell the story of environmental change in this region as told by the physical data and the people who rely on this landscape.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models

Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying sampling conditions due to the environment and time of sampling when estimating relative abundance. The novelty of our JSDM is that we explicitly model sampling effort as the product of known quantities based on time and gear type and an unknown functional relationship to capture seasonal variation in species life history. We use the model to study relative abundance of six freshwater fish species across the state of Minnesota, USA. Our model enables estimates of relative abundance to be compared both within and across species and lakes, and captures the inconsistent sampling present in the data. We discuss how gear type, water temperature and day of the year impact catchability for each species at the lake level and throughout a year. We compare our estimates of relative abundance to those obtained from a model that assumes constant catchability to highlight important differences within and across lakes and species. Synthesis and applications : Our method illustrates that assumptions relating indices of abundance to observed catch data can greatly impact model inferences derived from JSDMs. Specifically, not accounting for varying sampling conditions can bias inference of relative abundance, restricting our ability to detect responses to management interventions and environmental change. While our focus is on freshwater fisheries, this model architecture can be adopted to other systems where catchability may vary as a function of space, time and species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2002

The consequences of landscape change on ecological resources: An assessment of the United States mid-Atlantic region, 1973-1993

Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has been the development of methods to conduct such broad-scale assessments. Field-based methods have proven to be too costly and too inconsistent in their application to make estimates of ecological conditions over large areas. New spatial data derived from satellite imagery and other sources, the development of statistical models relating landscape composition and pattern to ecological endpoints, and geographic information systems (GIS) make it possible to evaluate ecological conditions at multiple scales over broad geographic regions. In this study, we demonstrate the application of spatially distributed models for bird habitat quality and nitrogen yield to streams to assess the consequences of landcover change across the mid-Atlantic region between the 1970s and 1990s. Moreover, we present a way to evaluate spatial concordance between models related to different environmental endpoints. Results of this study should help environmental managers in the mid-Atlantic region target those areas in need of conservation and protection.

Ecosystem Health↗
USGS2015

How are your berries? Perspectives of Alaska’s environmental managers on trends in wild berry abundance

Background : Wild berries are a valued traditional food in Alaska. Phytochemicals in wild berries may contribute to the prevention of vascular disease, cancer and cognitive decline, making berry consumption important to community health in rural areas. Little was known regarding which species of berries were important to Alaskan communities, the number of species typically picked in communities and whether recent environmental change has affected berry abundance or quality. Objective : To identify species of wild berries that were consumed by people in different ecological regions of Alaska and to determine if perceived berry abundance was changing for some species or in some regions. Design : We asked tribal environmental managers throughout Alaska for their views on which among 12 types of wild berries were important to their communities and whether berry harvests over the past decade were different than in previous years. We received responses from 96 individuals in 73 communities. Results : Berries that were considered very important to communities differed among ecological regions of Alaska. Low-bush blueberry ( Vaccinium uliginosum and V. caespitosum ), cloudberry ( Rubus chamaemorus ) and salmonberry ( Rubus spectabilis ) were most frequently identified as very important berries for communities in the boreal, polar and maritime ecoregions, respectively. For 7 of the 12 berries on the survey, a majority of respondents indicated that in the past decade abundance had either declined or become more variable. Conclusions : Our study is an example of how environmental managers and participants in local observer networks can report on the status of wild resources in rural Alaska. Their observations suggest that there have been changes in the productivity of some wild berries in the past decade, resulting in greater uncertainty among communities regarding the security of berry harvests. Monitoring and experimental studies are needed to determine how environmental change may affect berry abundance.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement among models. High agreement also accompanies projections that the Chukchi Sea will be completely ice covered during February, March, and April at the end of the century. Large uncertainties, however, are associated with the timing and amount of partial ice cover during the intervening periods of melt and freeze. For the Bering Sea, median March ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979-1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century. The ice-free season in the Bering Sea is projected to increase from its contemporary average of 5.5 months to a median of about 8.5 months by the end of the century. A 3-month longer ice- free season in the Bering Sea is attained by a 1-month advance in melt and a 2-month delay in freeze, meaning the ice edge typically will pass through the Bering Strait in May and January at the end of the century rather than June and November as presently observed.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Late Pleistocene dune activity in the central Great Plains, USA

Stabilized dunes of the central Great Plains, especially the megabarchans and large barchanoid ridges of the Nebraska Sand Hills, provide dramatic evidence of late Quaternary environmental change. Episodic Holocene dune activity in this region is now well-documented, but Late Pleistocene dune mobility has remained poorly documented, despite early interpretations of the Sand Hills dunes as Pleistocene relicts. New optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages from drill cores and outcrops provide evidence of Late Pleistocene dune activity at sites distributed across the central Great Plains. In addition, Late Pleistocene eolian sands deposited at 20-25 ka are interbedded with loess south of the Sand Hills. Several of the large dunes sampled in the Sand Hills clearly contain a substantial core of Late Pleistocene sand; thus, they had developed by the Late Pleistocene and were fully mobile at that time, although substantial sand deposition and extensive longitudinal dune construction occurred during the Holocene. Many of the Late Pleistocene OSL ages fall between 17 and 14 ka, but it is likely that these ages represent only the later part of a longer period of dune construction and migration. At several sites, significant Late Pleistocene or Holocene large-dune migration also probably occurred after the time represented by the Pleistocene OSL ages. Sedimentary structures in Late Pleistocene eolian sand and the forms of large dunes potentially constructed in the Late Pleistocene both indicate sand transport dominated by northerly to westerly winds, consistent with Late Pleistocene loess transport directions. Numerical modeling of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum has often yielded mean monthly surface winds southwest of the Laurentide Ice Sheet that are consistent with this geologic evidence, despite strengthened anticyclonic circulation over the ice sheet. Mobility of large dunes during the Late Pleistocene on the central Great Plains may have been the result of cold, short growing seasons with relatively low precipitation and low atmospheric CO2 that increased plant moisture stress, limiting the ability of vegetation to stabilize active dune sand. The apparent coexistence of large mobile dunes with boreal forest taxa suggests a Late Pleistocene environment with few modern analogs. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2012

Evidence from central Mexico supporting the Younger Dryas extraterrestrial impact hypothesis

We report the discovery in Lake Cuitzeo in central Mexico of a black, carbon-rich, lacustrine layer, containing nanodiamonds, microspherules, and other unusual materials that date to the early Younger Dryas and are interpreted to result from an extraterrestrial impact. These proxies were found in a 27-m-long core as part of an interdisciplinary effort to extract a paleoclimate record back through the previous interglacial. Our attention focused early on an anomalous, 10-cm-thick, carbon-rich layer at a depth of 2.8 m that dates to 12.9 ka and coincides with a suite of anomalous coeval environmental and biotic changes independently recognized in other regional lake sequences. Collectively, these changes have produced the most distinctive boundary layer in the late Quaternary record. This layer contains a diverse, abundant assemblage of impact-related markers, including nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, and magnetic spherules with rapid melting/quenching textures, all reaching synchronous peaks immediately beneath a layer containing the largest peak of charcoal in the core. Analyses by multiple methods demonstrate the presence of three allotropes of nanodiamond: n-diamond, i-carbon, and hexagonal nanodiamond (lonsdaleite), in order of estimated relative abundance. This nanodiamond-rich layer is consistent with the Younger Dryas boundary layer found at numerous sites across North America, Greenland, and Western Europe. We have examined multiple hypotheses to account for these observations and find the evidence cannot be explained by any known terrestrial mechanism. It is, however, consistent with the Younger Dryas boundary impact hypothesis postulating a major extraterrestrial impact involving multiple airburst(s) and and/or ground impact(s) at 12.9 ka.

Lake Cuitzeo↗
USGS2020

What processes must we understand to forecast regional-scale population dynamics?

An urgent challenge facing biologists is predicting the regional-scale population dynamics of species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond predictions based on phenomenological models and instead base predictions on underlying processes. For example, population biologists, evolutionary biologists, community ecologists and ecophysiologists all argue that the respective processes they study are essential. Must our models include processes from all of these fields? We argue that answering this critical question is ultimately an empirical exercise requiring a substantial amount of data that have not been integrated for any system to date. To motivate and facilitate the necessary data collection and integration, we first review the potential importance of each mechanism for skilful prediction. We then develop a conceptual framework based on reaction norms, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework to integrate processes affecting reaction norms at different scales. The ambitious research programme we advocate is rapidly becoming feasible due to novel collaborations, datasets and analytical tools.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗