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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community

Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa , from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D . viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense . Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla , while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species’ current ranges.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Invasive rat control is an efficient, yet insufficient, method for recovery of the critically endangered Hawaiian plant hau kuahiwi (Hibiscadelphus giffardianus)

Biological invasions of rodents and other species have been especially problematic on tropical islands. Invasive Rattus rattus consumption of Hibiscadelphus giffardianus (Malvaceae; common Hawaiian name hau kuahiwi) fruit and seeds has been hypothesized to be the most-limiting factor inhibiting the critically endangered tree, but this has not been experimentally tested, and little is known about other factors affecting seed dispersal, germination, and seedling establishment. Thus, we do not know if rat removal is sufficient to increase hau kuahiwi recruitment. This study aims to evaluate the effect of rat population control on the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit and establish seedlings. We compared hau kuahiwi fruiting and seedling recruitment in a stand treated to reduce rat abundance and a neighbouring control stand. Fruit retention increased following treatment but seedling establishment did not. Although rat control improves the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit, other, presently unknown inhibitors to seed dispersal, germination, and/or seedling development remain. Seed and seedling predation by other species, competition from numerous invasive plant species, unsuitable climate, and/or other factors may be primary inhibitors in the absence of rats, but we emphasize that progressive isolation of these factors at individual hau kuahiwi life stages may be necessary to identify the remaining threats to the conservation of this critically endangered plant.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Linking dynamic habitat selection with wading bird foraging distributions across resource gradients

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret ( Ardea alba ), White Ibis ( Eudocimus albus ), and Wood Stork ( Mycteria Americana ) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

Use of genetic data to infer population-specific ecological and phenotypic traits from mixed aggregations

Many applications in ecological genetics involve sampling individuals from a mixture of multiple biological populations and subsequently associating those individuals with the populations from which they arose. Analytical methods that assign individuals to their putative population of origin have utility in both basic and applied research, providing information about population-specific life history and habitat use, ecotoxins, pathogen and parasite loads, and many other non-genetic ecological, or phenotypic traits. Although the question is initially directed at the origin of individuals, in most cases the ultimate desire is to investigate the distribution of some trait among populations. Current practice is to assign individuals to a population of origin and study properties of the trait among individuals within population strata as if they constituted independent samples. It seemed that approach might bias population-specific trait inference. In this study we made trait inferences directly through modeling, bypassing individual assignment. We extended a Bayesian model for population mixture analysis to incorporate parameters for the phenotypic trait and compared its performance to that of individual assignment with a minimum probability threshold for assignment. The Bayesian mixture model outperformed individual assignment under some trait inference conditions. However, by discarding individuals whose origins are most uncertain, the individual assignment method provided a less complex analytical technique whose performance may be adequate for some common trait inference problems. Our results provide specific guidance for method selection under various genetic relationships among populations with different trait distributions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate’s effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km 2 landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Cold-water coral distributions in the Drake Passage area from towed camera observations - Initial interpretations

Seamounts are unique deep-sea features that create habitats thought to have high levels of endemic fauna, productive fisheries and benthic communities vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts. Many seamounts are isolated features, occurring in the high seas, where access is limited and thus biological data scarce. There are numerous seamounts within the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean), yet high winds, frequent storms and strong currents make seafloor sampling particularly difficult. As a result, few attempts to collect biological data have been made, leading to a paucity of information on benthic habitats or fauna in this area, particularly those on primarily hard-bottom seamounts and ridges. During a research cruise in 2008 six locations were examined (two on the Antarctic margin, one on the Shackleton Fracture Zone, and three on seamounts within the Drake Passage), using a towed camera with onboard instruments to measure conductivity, temperature, depth and turbidity. Dominant fauna and bottom type were categorized from 200 randomized photos from each location. Cold-water corals were present in high numbers in habitats both on the Antarctic margin and on the current swept seamounts of the Drake Passage, though the diversity of orders varied. Though the Scleractinia (hard corals) were abundant on the sedimented margin, they were poorly represented in the primarily hard-bottom areas of the central Drake Passage. The two seamount sites and the Shackleton Fracture Zone showed high numbers of stylasterid (lace) and alcyonacean (soft) corals, as well as large numbers of sponges. Though data are preliminary, the geological and environmental variability (particularly in temperature) between sample sites may be influencing cold-water coral biogeography in this region. Each area observed also showed little similarity in faunal diversity with other sites examined for this study within all phyla counted. This manuscript highlights how little is understood of these isolated features, particularly in Polar regions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Increased sediment load during a large-scale dam removal changes nearshore subtidal communities

The coastal marine ecosystem near the Elwha River was altered by a massive sediment influx—over 10 million tonnes—during the staged three-year removal of two hydropower dams. We used time series of bathymetry, substrate grain size, remotely sensed turbidity, scuba dive surveys, and towed video observations collected before and during dam removal to assess responses of the nearshore subtidal community (3 m to 17 m depth). Biological changes were primarily driven by sediment deposition and elevated suspended sediment concentrations. Macroalgae, predominantly kelp and foliose red algae, were abundant before dam removal with combined cover levels greater than 50%. Where persistent sediment deposits formed, macroalgae decreased greatly or were eliminated. In areas lacking deposition, macroalgae cover decreased inversely to suspended sediment concentration, suggesting impacts from light reduction or scour. Densities of most invertebrate and fish taxa decreased in areas with persistent sediment deposition; however, bivalve densities increased where mud deposited over sand, and flatfish and Pacific sand lance densities increased where sand deposited over gravel. In areas without sediment deposition, most invertebrate and fish taxa were unaffected by increased suspended sediment or the loss of algae cover associated with it; however, densities of tubeworms and flatfish, and primary cover of sessile invertebrates increased suggesting benefits of increased particulate matter or relaxed competition with macroalgae for space. As dam removal neared completion, we saw evidence of macroalgal recovery that likely owed to water column clearing, indicating that long-term recovery from dam removal effects may be starting. Our results are relevant to future dam removal projects in coastal areas and more generally to understanding effects of increased sedimentation on nearshore subtidal benthic communities.

Washington↗
USGS2018

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2020

Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species

Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut ( Corylus cornuta) , Oregon grape ( Mahonia aquifolium ), and salal ( Gaultheria shallon ). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species’ current ranges by the end of the 21 st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21 st century, and 36 days by the late-21 st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.

British, Columbia, California, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2021

Effects of low pH on the coral reef cryptic invertebrate communities near CO2 vents in Papua New Guinea

Small cryptic invertebrates (the cryptofauna) are extremely abundant, ecologically important, and species rich on coral reefs. Ongoing ocean acidification is likely to have both direct effects on the biology of these organisms, as well as indirect effects through cascading impacts on their habitats and trophic relationships. Naturally acidified habitats have been important model systems for studying these complex interactions because entire communities that are adapted to these environmental conditions can be analyzed. However, few studies have examined the cryptofauna because they are difficult to census quantitatively in topographically complex habitats and are challenging to identify. We addressed these challenges by using Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) for sampling reef-dwelling invertebrates >2 mm in size and by using DNA barcoding for taxonomic identifications. The study took place in Papua New Guinea at two reef localities, each with three sites at varying distances from carbon dioxide seeps, thereby sampling across a natural gradient in acidification. We observed sharp overall declines in both the abundance (34–56%) and diversity (42–45%) of organisms in ARMS under the lowest pH conditions sampled (7.64–7.75). However, the overall abundance of gastropods increased slightly in lower pH conditions, and crustacean and gastropod families exhibited varying patterns. There was also variability in response between the two localities, despite their close proximity, as one control pH site displayed unusually low diversity and abundances for all invertebrate groups. The data illustrate the complexity of responses of the reef fauna to pH conditions, and the role of additional factors that influence the diversity and abundance of cryptic reef invertebrates.

Milne Bay Province↗
USGS2018

Public acceptability of development in the Northern Forest of Vermont, USA – the influence of wildlife information, recreation involvement, and demographic characteristics

Increasing development such as roads and houses will alter future landscapes and result in biological, social, and economic trade-offs. Managing development requires information on the public’s acceptability of development and understanding which factors shape acceptability. In this study, we examined three questions: 1) What is the public’s acceptability of development? 2) Is acceptability of development influenced by wildlife information? and 3) Is the maximum amount of acceptable development influenced by views about wildlife, involvement in outdoor recreation, and demographic factors? We conducted a visual-preference survey of 9,000 households in Vermont, USA that asked about acceptable levels of development, acceptability of wildlife, involvement in recreation, and individual and town demographics. The survey response rate was 44%. Maximum acceptable condition (MAC) for development was 41 houses/km 2 and not meaningfully influenced by broader consequences of development on seven common wildlife species. MAC was influenced by views on individual species, including bear and coyote, but not by other species such as deer, fox, and bobcat. Respondents with a positive attitude toward bear favored less development, whereas the opposite relationship existed for coyote. Similarly, MAC was negatively influenced by involvement in birding and hunting, but not by other common recreational activities. Among demographic factors, respondents that were younger and not born in Vermont were more accepting of development. Population density also positively influenced development acceptability. Results provide measures of the public’s acceptability of development that can help guide decision-making about development, wildlife, and recreation management.

Vermont↗
USGS2014

A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts

Immunological protection, acquired from either natural infection or vaccination, varies among hosts, reflecting underlying biological variation and affecting population-level protection. Owing to the nature of resistance mechanisms, distributions of susceptibility and protection entangle with pathogen dose in a way that can be decoupled by adequately representing the dose dimension. Any infectious processes must depend in some fashion on dose, and empirical evidence exists for an effect of exposure dose on the probability of transmission to mumps-vaccinated hosts [1] , the case-fatality ratio of measles [2] , and the probability of infection and, given infection, of symptoms in cholera [3] . Extreme distributions of vaccine protection have been termed leaky (partially protects all hosts) and all-or-nothing (totally protects a proportion of hosts) [4] . These distributions can be distinguished in vaccine field trials from the time dependence of infections [5] . Frailty mixing models have also been proposed to estimate the distribution of protection from time to event data [6] , [7] , although the results are not comparable across regions unless there is explicit control for baseline transmission [8] . Distributions of host susceptibility and acquired protection can be estimated from dose-response data generated under controlled experimental conditions [9] – [11] and natural settings [12] , [13] . These distributions can guide research on mechanisms of protection, as well as enable model validity across the entire range of transmission intensities. We argue for a shift to a dose-dimension paradigm in infectious disease science and community health.

PLoS Pathogens↗
USGS2015

Hybridization between Yellowstone cutthroat trout and rainbow trout alters the expression of muscle growth-related genes and their relationships with growth patterns

Hybridization creates novel gene combinations that may generate important evolutionary novelty, but may also reduce existing adaptation by interrupting inherent biological processes, such as genotype-environment interactions. Hybridization often causes substantial change in patterns of gene expression, which, in turn, may cause phenotypic change. Rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and cutthroat trout ( O . clarkii ) produce viable hybrids in the wild, and introgressive hybridization with introduced rainbow trout is a major conservation concern for native cutthroat trout. The two species differ in body shape, which is likely an evolutionary adaptation to their native environments, and their hybrids tend to show intermediate morphology. The characterization of gene expression patterns may provide insights on the genetic basis of hybrid and parental morphologies, as well as on the ecological performance of hybrids in the wild. Here, we evaluated the expression of eight growth-related genes (MSTN-1a, MSTN-1b, MyoD1a, MyoD1b, MRF-4, IGF-1, IGF-2, and CAST-L) and the relationship of these genes with growth traits (length, weight, and condition factor) in six line crosses: both parental species, both reciprocal F1 hybrids, and both first-generation backcrosses (F1 x rainbow trout and F1 x cutthroat trout). Four of these genes were differentially expressed among rainbow, cutthroat, and their hybrids. Transcript abundance was significantly correlated with growth traits across the parent species, but not across hybrids. Our findings suggest that rainbow and cutthroat trout exhibit differences in muscle growth regulation, that transcriptional networks may be modified by hybridization, and that hybridization disrupts intrinsic relationships between gene expression and growth patterns that may be functionally important for phenotypic adaptations.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Stream vulnerability to widespread and emergent stressors: a focus on unconventional oil and gas

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2022

New strategies for characterizing genetic structure in wide-ranging, continuously distributed species: a Greater Sage-grouse case study

Characterizing genetic structure across a species’ range is relevant for management and conservation as it can be used to define population boundaries and quantify connectivity. Wide-ranging species residing in continuously distributed habitat pose substantial challenges for the characterization of genetic structure as many analytical methods used are less effective when isolation by distance is an underlying biological pattern. Here, we illustrate strategies for overcoming these challenges using a species of significant conservation concern, the Greater Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), providing a new method to identify centers of genetic differentiation and combining multiple methods to help inform management and conservation strategies for this and other such species. Our objectives were to (1) describe large-scale patterns of population genetic structure and gene flow and (2) to characterize genetic subpopulation centers across the range of Greater Sage-grouse. Samples from 2,134 individuals were genotyped at 15 microsatellite loci. Using standard STRUCTURE and spatial principal components analyses, we found evidence for four or six areas of large-scale genetic differentiation and, following our novel method, 12 subpopulation centers of differentiation. Gene flow was greater, and differentiation reduced in areas of contiguous habitat (eastern Montana, most of Wyoming, much of Oregon, Nevada, and parts of Idaho). As expected, areas of fragmented habitat such as in Utah (with 6 subpopulation centers) exhibited the greatest genetic differentiation and lowest effective migration. The subpopulation centers defined here could be monitored to maintain genetic diversity and connectivity with other subpopulation centers. Many areas outside subpopulation centers are contact zones where different genetic groups converge and could be priorities for maintaining overall connectivity. Our novel method and process of leveraging multiple different analyses to find common genetic patterns provides a path forward to characterizing genetic structure in wide-ranging, continuously distributed species.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗
USGS2020

Influence of sediment and stream transport on detecting a source of environmental DNA

Environmental DNA (eDNA) can be used for early detection, population estimations, and assessment of potential spread of invasive species, but questions remain about factors that influence eDNA detection results. Efforts are being made to understand how physical, chemical, and biological factors—settling, resuspension, dispersion, eDNA stability/decay—influence eDNA estimations and potentially population abundance. In a series of field and controlled mesocosm experiments, we examined the detection and accumulation of eDNA in sediment and water and the transport of eDNA in a small stream in the Lake Michigan watershed, using the invasive round goby fish ( Neogobius melanostomus ) as a DNA source. Experiment 1: caged fish (average n = 44) were placed in a stream devoid of round goby; water was collected over 24 hours along 120-m of stream, including a simultaneous sampling event at 7 distances from DNA source; stream monitoring continued for 24 hours after fish were removed. Experiment 2: round goby were placed in laboratory tanks; water and sediment were collected over 14 days and for another 150 days post-fish removal to calculate eDNA shedding and decay rates for water and sediment. For samples from both experiments, DNA was extracted, and qPCR targeted a cytochrome oxidase I gene (COI) fragment specific to round goby. Results indicated that eDNA accumulated and decayed more slowly in sediment than water. In the stream, DNA shedding was markedly lower than calculated in the laboratory, but models indicate eDNA could potentially travel long distances (up to 50 km) under certain circumstances. Collectively, these findings show that the interactive effects of ambient conditions (e.g., eDNA stability and decay, hydrology, settling-resuspension) are important to consider when developing comprehensive models. Results of this study can help resource managers target representative sites downstream of potential invasion sites, thereby maximizing resource use.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

California↗