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USGS2013

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

California↗

USGS2022

Broad Whitefish (Coregonus nasus) isotopic niches: Stable isotopes reveal diverse foraging strategies and habitat use in Arctic Alaska

Understanding the ecological niche of some fishes is complicated by their frequent use of a broad range of food resources and habitats across space and time. Little is known about Broad Whitefish ( Coregonus nasus ) ecological niches in Arctic landscapes even though they are an important subsistence species for Alaska’s Indigenous communities. We investigated the foraging ecology and habitat use of Broad Whitefish via stable isotope analyses of muscle and liver tissue and otoliths from mature fish migrating in the Colville River within Arctic Alaska. The range of δ 13 C (-31.8– -21.9‰) and δ 15 N (6.6–13.1‰) across tissue types and among individuals overlapped with isotope values previously observed in Arctic lakes and rivers, estuaries, and nearshore marine habitat. The large range of δ 18 O (4.5–10.9‰) and δD (-237.6– -158.9‰) suggests fish utilized a broad spectrum of habitats across elevational and latitudinal gradients. Cluster analysis of muscle δ 13 Cˈ, δ 15 N, δ 18 O, and δD indicated that Broad Whitefish occupied four different foraging niches that relied on marine and land-based (i.e., freshwater and terrestrial) food sources to varying degrees. Most individuals had isotopic signatures representative of coastal freshwater habitat (Group 3; 25%) or coastal lagoon and delta habitat (Group 1; 57%), while individuals that mainly utilized inland freshwater (Group 4; 4%) and nearshore marine habitats (Group 2; 14%) represented smaller proportions. Otolith microchemistry confirmed that individuals with more enriched muscle tissue δ 13 Cˈ, δD, and δ 18 O tended to use marine habitats, while individuals that mainly used freshwater habitats had values that were less enriched. The isotopic niches identified here represent important foraging habitats utilized by Broad Whitefish. To preserve access to these diverse habitats it will be important to limit barriers along nearshore areas and reduce impacts like roads and climate change on natural flow regimes. Maintaining these diverse connected habitats will facilitate long-term population stability, buffering populations from future environmental and anthropogenic perturbations.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders

Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

The structure of genetic diversity in eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) along the North Pacific and Bering Sea coasts of Alaska

Eelgrass ( Zostera marina) populations occupying coastal waters of Alaska are separated by a peninsula and island archipelago into two Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). From populations in both LMEs, we characterize genetic diversity, population structure, and polarity in gene flow using nuclear microsatellite fragment and chloroplast and nuclear sequence data. An inverse relationship between genetic diversity and latitude was observed (heterozygosity: R 2 = 0.738, P < 0.001; allelic richness: R 2 = 0.327, P = 0.047), as was significant genetic partitioning across most sampling sites (θ = 0.302, P < 0.0001). Variance in allele frequency was significantly partitioned by region only in cases when a population geographically in the Gulf of Alaska LME (Kinzarof Lagoon) was instead included with populations in the Eastern Bering Sea LME (θ p = 0.128–0.172; P < 0.003), suggesting gene flow between the two LMEs in this region. Gene flow among locales was rarely symmetrical, with notable exceptions generally following net coastal ocean current direction. Genetic data failed to support recent proposals that multiple Zostera species (i.e. Z . japonica and Z . angustifolia ) are codistributed with Z . marina in Alaska. Comparative analyses also failed to support the hypothesis that eelgrass populations in the North Atlantic derived from eelgrass retained in northeastern Pacific Last Glacial Maximum refugia. These data suggest northeastern Pacific populations are derived from populations expanding northward from temperate populations following climate amelioration at the terminus of the last Pleistocene glaciation.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2024

Increased pathogen exposure of a marine apex predator over three decades

Environmental changes associated with global warming create new opportunities for pathogen and parasite transmission in Arctic wildlife. As an apex predator ranging over large, remote areas, changes in pathogens and parasites in polar bears are a useful indicator of changing transmission dynamics in Arctic ecosystems. We examined prevalence and risk factors associated with exposure to parasites and viral and bacterial pathogens in Chukchi Sea polar bears. Serum antibodies to six pathogens were detected and prevalence increased between 1987–1994 and 2008–2017 for five: Toxoplasma gondii , Neospora caninum , Francisella tularensis , Brucella abortus/suis , and canine distemper virus. Although bears have increased summer land use, this behavior was not associated with increased exposure. Higher prevalence of F. tularensis , C. burnetii , and B. abortus/suis antibodies in females compared to males, however, could be associated with terrestrial denning. Exposure was related to diet for several pathogens indicating increased exposure in the food web. Elevated white blood cell counts suggest a possible immune response to some pathogens. Given that polar bears face multiple stressors in association with climate change and are a subsistence food, further work is warranted to screen for signs of disease.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?

More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km 2 ). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis ; black-footed albatross, P . nigripes ; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca ). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine ( Gulo gulo ) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

California↗

USGS2018

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2022

Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions

Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20–83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Coupled downscaled climate models and ecophysiological metrics forecast habitat compression for an endangered estuarine fish

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus , by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

California↗

USGS2021

Argentine Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae) can survive the winter under semi-natural conditions well beyond their current invasive range

The Argentine Black and White Tegu ( Salvator merianae , formerly Tupinambis merianae ) is a large lizard from South America. Now established and invasive in southern Florida, and it poses threats to populations of many native species. Models suggest much of the southern United States may contain suitable temperature regimes for this species, yet there is considerable uncertainty regarding either the potential for range expansion northward out of tropical and subtropical zones or the potential for the species establishing elsewhere following additional independent introductions. We evaluated survival, body temperature, duration and timing of winter dormancy, and health of wild-caught tegus from southern Florida held in semi-natural enclosures for over a year in Auburn, Alabama (> 900 km northwest of capture location). Nine of twelve lizards emerged from winter dormancy and seven survived the greater-than-one-year duration of the study. Average length of dormancy (176 d) was greater than that reported in the native range or for invasive populations in southern Florida and females remained dormant longer than males. Tegus grew rapidly throughout the study and the presence of sperm in the testes of males and previtellogenic or early vitellogenic follicles in female ovaries at the end of our study suggest the animals would have been capable of reproduction the following spring. The survival and overall health of the majority of adult tegus in our study suggests weather and climate patterns are unlikely to prevent survival following introduction in many areas of the United States far from their current invasive range.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2018

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera ) and Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a “warming hole” in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges–but not the non-breeding ranges–of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Vegetation controls on weathering intensity during the last deglacial transition in southeast Africa

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (~18–9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact this interplay between the biosphere and geosphere, tropical landscape change could lead to deleterious effects on soil and water quality in regions with little infrastructure for mitigation.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos canadensis) from three areas in western North America; initial results and conservation implications

Understanding the genetics of a population is a critical component of developing conservation strategies. We used archived tissue samples from golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos canadensis ) in three geographic regions of western North America to conduct a preliminary study of the genetics of the North American subspecies, and to provide data for United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) decision-making for golden eagle management. We used a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop sequences and 16 nuclear DNA (nDNA) microsatellite loci to investigate the extent of gene flow among our sampling areas in Idaho, California and Alaska and to determine if we could distinguish birds from the different geographic regions based on their genetic profiles. Our results indicate high genetic diversity, low genetic structure and high connectivity. Nuclear DNA Fst values between Idaho and California were low but significantly different from zero (0.026). Bayesian clustering methods indicated a single population, and we were unable to distinguish summer breeding residents from different regions. Results of the mtDNA AMOVA showed that most of the haplotype variation (97%) was within the geographic populations while 3% variation was partitioned among them. One haplotype was common to all three areas. One region-specific haplotype was detected in California and one in Idaho, but additional sampling is required to determine if these haplotypes are unique to those geographic areas or a sampling artifact. We discuss potential sources of the high gene flow for this species including natal and breeding dispersal, floaters, and changes in migratory behavior as a result of environmental factors such as climate change and habitat alteration. Our preliminary findings can help inform the USFWS in development of golden eagle management strategies and provide a basis for additional research into the complex dynamics of the North American subspecies.

Alaska, California, Idaho, Oregon↗

USGS2011

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

California↗

USGS2014

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km 2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km 2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora . Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

PLoS ONE↗