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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Modeling transport and deposition of the Mekong River sediment

A Coupled Wave–Ocean–SedimentTransport Model was used to hindcast coastal circulation and fine sedimenttransport on the Mekong shelf in southeastern Asian in 2005. Comparisons with limited observations showed that the model simulation captured the regional patterns and temporal variability of surface wave, sea level, and suspended sediment concentration reasonably well. Significant seasonality in sedimenttransport was revealed. In summer, a large amount of fluvial sediments was delivered and deposited near the MekongRiver mouth. In the following winter, strong ocean mixing, and coastal current lead to resuspension and southwestward dispersal of a small fraction of previously deposited sediments. Model sensitivity experiments (with reduced physics) were performed to investigate the impact of tides, waves, and remotely forced ambient currents on the transport and dispersal of the fluvial sediment. Strong wave mixing and downwelling-favorable coastal current associated with the more energetic northeast monsoon in the winter season are the main factors controlling the southwestward along-shelf transport.

Mekong River↗
USGS2011

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS1992

Revised budget for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide

Tracer-calibrated models of the total uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 by the world's oceans give estimates of about 2 gigatonnes carbon per year 1 , significantly larger than a recent estimate 2 of 0.3-0.8 Gt C yr -1 for the synoptic air-to-sea CO 2 influx. Although both estimates require that the global CO 2 budget must be balanced by a large unknown terrestrial sink, the latter estimate implies a much larger terrestrial sink, and challenges the ocean model calculations on which previous CO 2 budgets were based. The discrepancy is due in part to the net flux of carbon to the ocean by rivers and rain, which must be added to the synoptic air-to-sea CO 2 flux to obtain the total oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . Here we estimate the magnitude of this correction and of several other recently proposed adjustments to the synoptic air-sea CO 2 exchange. These combined adjustments minimize the apparent inconsistency, and restore estimates of the terrestrial sink to values implied by the modelled oceanic uptake.

Nature↗
USGS2021

Impact of SST and surface waves on Hurricane Florence (2018): A coupled modeling investigation

Hurricane Florence (2018) devastated the coastal communities of the Carolinas through heavy rainfall that resulted in massive flooding. Florence was characterized by an abrupt reduction in intensity (Saffir-Simpson Category 4 to Category 1) just prior to landfall and synoptic-scale interactions that stalled the storm over the Carolinas for several days. We conducted a series of numerical modeling experiments in coupled and uncoupled configurations to examine the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean waves on storm characteristics. In addition to experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model, we introduced the capability of the atmospheric model to modulate wind stress and surface fluxes by oceanwaves through data from an uncoupled wave model. We examined these experiments by comparing track, intensity, strength, SST, storm structure, wave height, surface roughness, heat fluxes, and precipitation in order to determine the impacts of resolving ocean conditions with varying degrees of coupling. We found differences in the storm’s intensity and strength, with the best correlation coefficient of intensity (r=0.89) and strength (r=0.95) coming from the fully-coupled simulations. Further analysis into surface roughness parameterizations added to the atmospheric model revealed differences in the spatial distribution and magnitude of the largest roughness lengths. Adding ocean andwave features to the model further modified the fluxes due to more realistic cooling beneath the stormwhich in turn modified the precipitation field. Our experiments highlight significant differences in how air-sea processes impact hurricane modeling. The storm characteristics of track, intensity, strength, and precipitation at landfall are crucial to predictability and forecasting of future landfalling hurricanes.

Weather and Forecasting↗
USGS2015

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2025

Development of a two-stage life cycle model to inform the Trap and Haul Program for Coho salmon in the Lewis River, Washington

Restoration of salmon populations in the upper Lewis River Basin depends on a trap-and-haul program owing to the Lewis River Hydroelectric Project (Project) operated by PacifiCorp and Cowlitz PUD (Utilities), which has been a barrier to salmon passage since the 1930s. Thus, sustaining the Coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) population upstream of the Project currently depends on two fundamental factors: (1) the collection of upstream migrating adult Coho salmon at Merwin Dam, the lower most dam within the Project, and transporting them by truck to spawn above Swift Dam, the upper most dam within the Project; and (2) the collection of out-migrating juvenile Coho salmon at the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam for transport and release below the Project. The reintroduction program began once the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam was commissioned in late-2012 with the first year of transport data being collected in 2013. Over the past decade, the Utilities have been collecting data on juvenile outmigrants and adult fish returns at the dams. The need to construct a life cycle model for Lewis River anadromous fish was identified by the Lewis River Aquatic Technical Subgroup, with the understanding that many years (>15) of data collection are needed to adequately measure the life cycle production of coho salmon. Use of past data to construct models could help inform future data collection and provide a framework that can be updated annually to measure trap and haul program performance within a life cycle context (Note: Data are not currently available from PacifiCorp. Contact organization Chris Karchesky for further information). Because Coho salmon can live as long as five years, estimating demographic parameters for Coho salmon populations over their life cycle requires at least 10 or more years of data collection. Over the past decade, PacifiCorp has been collecting data on fish collection efficiency and the numbers of adult and juvenile salmon transported around the Lewis River dams, providing sufficient data to formulate a life cycle model that can guide future data collection efforts and provide preliminary information to resource managers The goal of the statistical life cycle model was to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions (1) the freshwater production from escapement of adults released upstream of Swift Dam, and the collection of downstream migrating juveniles at the passage facility at Swift Dam, and (2) the smolt-to-adult survival from the time of collection at Swift Dam to their return as adults. We used the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of spawners. This approach allowed us to test for density dependence at current spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. Productivity was then expressed as a function of the number of juveniles collected and transported downstream of the Project. Because juvenile Fish Collection Efficiency (FCE) directly affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration, FCE is a primary determinant of fish production. Consequently, the modeling framework is well suited to evaluate the performance of trap and haul programs within a life cycle context. The objectives of this study were to: (1) gather and collate available data on adult and juvenile Coho salmon at Merwin and Swift dams, (2) quantify adult escapement, juvenile abundance, and the age at outmigration and adult return, (3) describe, formulate, and fit the integrated population model (IPM) to the data, and (4) summarize our findings, identify data gaps, and identify potential opportunities for future studies that could provide information used to improve model estimation and inference. Our key findings were: (1) over and above the number of spawning females, FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of Coho salmon above Swift Dam, (2) smolt-to-adult return (SAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 4.5% and ranging as high as 12.9%, and (3) juvenile capacity upriver of Swift Dam was difficult to estimate due to the limited range in spawning females over the time series of data, suggesting the model may be improved by collecting data at higher spawner abundances. In addition, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE = 1, was 64 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river versus the ocean, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at Swift Dam plays in the recovery and sustainability of Lewis River Coho salmon. By providing the model with (1) more years of data, (2) higher numbers of spawning females, and (3) data on age at juvenile migration in relation to age at adult return greater certainty in the estimates of capacity and SAR can be attained. Ultimately, information provided by the model can assist in the evaluation and continued improvement of the current trap and haul program to support anadromous fishes in the Lewis River Basin.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2026

Development of a two-stage lifecycle model to inform the trap-and-haul program for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the Lewis River, Washington

Restoration of salmon populations in the upper Lewis River Basin, Washington, depends on a trap-and-haul program owing to the Lewis River Hydroelectric Project (hereinafter referred to as “Project”) operated by PacifiCorp and Cowlitz Public Utilities District (hereinafter referred to as “Utilities”), which has been a barrier to salmon passage since the 1930s. Thus, sustaining the Oncorhynchus kisutch (Walbaum, 1792; coho salmon) population upstream from the Project currently depends on two fundamental factors: (1) the collection of upstream migrating adult coho salmon at Merwin Dam, the lowermost dam within the Project, and transporting them by truck to spawn above Swift Dam, the uppermost dam within the Project; and (2) the collection of out-migrating juvenile coho salmon at the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam for transport and release below the Project. The reintroduction program began once the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam was commissioned in late 2012, with the first year of transport data being collected in 2013. Over the past decade, the Utilities have been collecting data on juvenile outmigrants and adult fish returns at the dams. The need to construct a lifecycle model for Lewis River anadromous fish was identified by the Lewis River Aquatic Technical Subgroup, with the understanding that many years (more than 15 years) of data collection are needed to adequately measure the lifecycle production of salmon. The U.S. Geological Survey was contracted to develop and apply the model to past data at the Lewis River dams to help inform future data collection and provide a framework that can be updated annually to measure trap-and-haul program performance within a lifecycle context. Because coho salmon can live as long as 5 years, estimating demographic parameters for coho salmon populations over their lifecycle requires at least 10 or more years of data collection. Over the past decade, PacifiCorp has been collecting data on fish collection efficiency and the numbers of adult and juvenile salmon transported around the Lewis River dams, making this an ideal time to formulate a lifecycle model that can guide future data collection efforts and provide preliminary information to resource managers. The goal of the statistical lifecycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: (1) the freshwater production from escapement of adults released upstream from Swift Dam, and the collection of downstream migrating juveniles at the downstream passage facility at Swift Dam; and (2) the smolt-to-adult survival from the time of collection at Swift Dam to their return as adults. We used the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of spawners (Beverton and Holt, 1957). This approach allowed us to test for density dependence at current spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. Productivity was then expressed as a function of the number of juveniles collected and transported downstream from the Project. Because juvenile fish collection efficiency (FCE) directly affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration, FCE is a primary determinant of fish production. Consequently, the modeling framework is well suited to evaluate the performance of trap-and-haul programs within a lifecycle context. The objectives of this study were to (1) gather and collate available data on adult and juvenile coho salmon at Merwin and Swift Dams; (2) quantify adult escapement, juvenile abundance, and the age at outmigration and adult return; (3) describe, formulate and fit the integrated population model to the data; and (4) summarize our findings, identify data gaps, and identify opportunities for future studies that could improve model estimation and inference. Our key findings were: (1) over and above the number of spawning females, FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon above Swift Dam; (2) smolt-to-adult return (SAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 4.5 percent and ranging as high as 12.9 percent; and (3) juvenile capacity upstream from Swift Dam was difficult to estimate due to the limited range in spawning females over the time series of data, suggesting the model may be improved by collecting data at higher spawner abundances. In addition, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 64 juveniles per spawner. Because the two-stage lifecycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in rivers versus the ocean, the model estimates may help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at Swift Dam plays in the recovery and sustainability of Lewis River coho salmon. By providing the model with (1) more years of data, (2) higher numbers of spawning females, and (3) data on age at juvenile migration in relation to age at adult return, greater certainty in the estimates of capacity and SAR can be attained. Ultimately, information provided by the model may assist in the evaluation and continued improvement of the current trap-and-haul program to support anadromous fishes in the Lewis River Basin.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Predicting connectivity of green turtles at Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific: a focus on mtDNA and dispersal modelling

Population connectivity and spatial distribution are fundamentally related to ecology, evolution and behaviour. Here, we combined powerful genetic analysis with simulations of particle dispersal in a high-resolution ocean circulation model to investigate the distribution of green turtles foraging at the remote Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, central Pacific. We analysed mitochondrial sequences from turtles ( n = 349) collected there over 5 years (2008–2012). Genetic analysis assigned natal origins almost exclusively (approx. 97%) to the West Central and South Central Pacific combined Regional Management Units. Further, our modelling results indicated that turtles could potentially drift from rookeries to Palmyra Atoll via surface currents along a near-Equatorial swathe traversing the Pacific. Comparing findings from genetics and modelling highlighted the complex impacts of ocean currents and behaviour on natal origins. Although the Palmyra feeding ground was highly differentiated genetically from others in the Indo-Pacific, there was no significant differentiation among years, sexes or stage-classes at the Refuge. Understanding the distribution of this foraging population advances knowledge of green turtles and contributes to effective conservation planning for this threatened species.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface↗
USGS2011

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2011

Building transparent data access for ocean observatories: Coordination of U.S. IOOS DMAC with NSF's OOI Cyberinfrastructure

The NOAA-led U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) and the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) have been collaborating since 2007 on advanced tools and technologies that ensure open access to ocean observations and models. Initial collaboration focused on serving ocean data via cloud computing-a key component of the OOI cyberinfrastructure (CI) architecture. As the OOI transitioned from planning to execution in the Fall of 2009, an OOI/IOOS team developed a customer-based "use case" to align more closely with the emerging objectives of OOI-CI team's first software release scheduled for Summer 2011 and provide a quantitative capacity for stress-testing these tools and protocols. A requirements process was initiated with coastal modelers, focusing on improved workflows to deliver ocean observation data. Accomplishments to date include the documentation and assessment of scientific workflows for two "early adopter" modeling teams from IOOS Regional partners (Rutgers-the State University of New Jersey and University of Hawaii's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology) to enable full understanding of data sources and needs; generation of all-inclusive lists of the data sets required and those obtainable through IOOS; a more complete understanding of areas where IOOS can expand data access capabilities to better serve the needs of the modeling community; and development of "data set agents" (software) to facilitate data acquisition from numerous data providers and conversions of the data format to the OOI-CI canonical form. ?? 2011 MTS.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

The Geoid: Effect of compensated topography and uncompensated oceanic trenches

The geoid is becoming increasingly important in interpretation of global tectonics. Most of the topography of the earth is isostatically compensated, so removal of its effect from the geoid is appropriate before tectonic modeling. The oceanic trenches, however, are dynamically depressed features and cannot be isostatically compensated in the classical way. Continental topography compensated at 35 km gives intracontinental geoidal undulations of up to 15 m over mountain ranges in a spherical harmonic expansion to order and degree 22. Oceanic topography compensated at 40 km, reasonable for the thermally supported long wavelengths, matches the +10 m difference between old continents and old oceans in a detailed NASA/GSFC geoid. Removing the assumed compensation for the oceanic trenches leaves negative anomalies of up to 9 m amplitude caused by their uncompensated mass deficit. This mass deficit acts as a partial "regional compensation" for the excess mass of the subducting slabs, and partly explains why geoidal (and gravity) anomalies over the cold slabs are less than thermal models predict.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2005

Movement of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system in response to hydrologic stresses and water-management practices, Broward County, Florida

A study was conducted to evaluate the relation between water-level fluctuations and saltwater intrusion in Broward County, Florida. The objective was achieved through data collection at selected wells in Broward County and through the development of a variable-density ground-water flow model. The numerical model is representative of many locations in Broward County that contain a well field, control structure, canal, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the Atlantic Ocean. The model was used to simulate short-term movement (from tidal fluctuations to monthly changes) and long-term movement (greater than 10 years) of the saltwater interface resulting from changes in rainfall, well-field withdrawals, sea-level rise, and upstream canal stage. The SEAWAT code, which is a combined version of the computer codes, MODFLOW and MT3D, was used to simulate the complex variable-density flow patterns. Model results indicated that the canal, control structure, and sea level have major effects on ground-water flow. For periods greater than 10 years, the upstream canal stage controls the movement and location of the saltwater interface. If upstream canal stage is decreased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 50 years to move inland and stabilize. If the upstream canal stage is then increased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 90 years to move seaward and stabilize. If sea level rises about 48 centimeters over the next 100 year as predicted, then inland movement of the saltwater interface may cause well-field contamination. For periods less than 10 years, simulation results indicated that a 3-year drought with increased well-field withdrawals probably will not have long-term effects on the position of the saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer. The saltwater interface returns to its original position in less than 10 years. Model results, however, indicated that the interface location in the lower part of the surficial aquifer system takes longer than 10 years to recover from a drought. Additionally, rainfall seems to have the greatest effect on saltwater interface movement in areas some distance from canals, but the upstream canal stage has the greatest effect on the movement of the saltwater interface near canals. Field data indicated that saltwater interface movement includes short-term fluctuations caused by tidal fluctuations and long-term seasonal fluctuations. Statistical analyses of daily-averaged data indicated that the saltwater interface moves in response to pumpage, rainfall, and upstream canal stage. In areas near the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by canal stage because water-management structures control the stage in the upstream part of the canal and allow movement of the saltwater interface. In areas away from the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by pumpage and rainfall, depending on the location of well fields. Data analyses also revealed that rainfall changes the vertical flow direction in the Biscayne aquifer. Results from the study indicated that upstream canal stage substantially affects the long-term position of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system. The saltwater interface moves faster inland than seaward because of changes in upstream canal stage. For short-term problems, such as drought, the threat of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer does not appear to be severe if the well-field withdrawal is increased; however, this conclusion is based on the assumption that well-field withdrawals will decrease once the drought is over. Sea-level rise may be a potential threat to the water supply in Broward County as the saltwater interface moves inland toward well fields.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Impacts of the ocean-atmosphere coupling into the very short range prediction system during the impact of Hurricane Matthew on Cuba

The main goal of this investigation is analyzing the impact of insert the ocean-atmosphere coupling into the very short range prediction system of Cuba. The ocean-atmosphere coupled components of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System are used for this purpose and the hurricane Matthew is selected as study case. Two experiments are performed: first, using a dynamic sea surface temperature, updated daily in the atmospheric model WRF; and second using adynamic coupling between the atmospheric and an oceanic models. For the simulated track, the best results are obtained with the coupled system. The impact of coupling on the maximum wind velocities and minimum central pressure is studied. In the coupled system the sea surface temperature has more influence in the surface latent heat fluxes. Also, with this methodology the dry footprint and the behavior of the precipitation field in the presence of a hurricane are studied. This analysis shows that the hurricane acts like an open and self-sustained system in the numerical experiments. The highest differences in the precipitation simulations are in the significant convective area inside the hurricane.

Ciência e Natura↗
USGS2000

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

California↗
USGS1998

CRUST 5.1: A global crustal model at 5° x 5°

We present a new global model for the Earth's crust based on seismic refraction data published in the period 1948-1995 and a detailed compilation of ice and sediment thickness. An extensive compilation of seismic refraction measurements has been used to determine the crustal structure on continents and their margins. Oceanic crust is modeled with both a standard model for normal oceanic crust, and variants for nonstandard regions, such as oceanic plateaus. Our model (CRUST 5.1) consists of 2592 5° × 5° tiles in which the crust and uppermost mantle are described by eight layers: (1) ice, (2) water, (3) soft sediments, (4) hard sediments, (5) crystalline upper, (6) middle, (7) lower crust, and (8) uppermost mantle. Topography and bathymetry are adopted from a Mandard database (ETOPO-5). Compressional wave velocity in each layer is based on field measurements, and shear wave velocity and density are estimated using recently published empirical V p -V s and V p -density relationships. The crustal model differs from previous models in that (1) the thickness and seismic/density structure of sedimentary basins is accounted for more completely, (2) the velocity structure of unmeasured regions is estimated using statistical averages that are based on a significantly larger database of crustal structure, (3) the compressional wave, shear wave, and density structure have been explicitly specified using newly available constraints from field and laboratory studies. Thus - this global crustal model is based on substantially more data than previous models and differs from them in many important respects. A new map of the thickness of the Earth's crust is presented, and we illustrate the application of this model by using it to provide the crustal correction for surface wave phase velocity maps. Love waves at 40 s are dominantly sensitive to crustal structure, and there is a very close correspondence between observed phase velocities at this period and those predicted by CRUST 5.1. We find that the application of crustal corrections to long-period (167 s) Rayleigh waves significantly increases the variance in the phase velocity maps and strengthens the upper mantle , velocity anomalies beneath stable continental regions. A simple calculation of crustal isostacy indicates significant lateral variations in upper mantle density. The model CRUST 5.1 provides a complete description of the physical properties of the Earth's crust at a scale of 5° × 5° and can be used for a wide range of seismological and nonseismological problems.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Nearly frictionless faulting by unclamping in long-term interaction models

In defiance of direct rock-friction observations, some transform faults appear to slide with little resistance. In this paper finite element models are used to show how strain energy is minimized by interacting faults that can cause long-term reduction in fault-normal stresses (unclamping). A model fault contained within a sheared elastic medium concentrates stress at its end points with increasing slip. If accommodating structures free up the ends, then the fault responds by rotating, lengthening, and unclamping. This concept is illustrated by a comparison between simple strike-slip faulting and a mid-ocean-ridge model with the same total transform length; calculations show that the more complex system unclapms the transforms and operates at lower energy. In another example, the overlapping San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region is modeled; this system is complicated by junctions and stepovers. A finite element model indicates that the normal stress along parts of the faults could be reduced to hydrostatic levels after ???60-100 k.y. of system-wide slip. If this process occurs in the earth, then parts of major transform fault zones could appear nearly frictionless.

Geology↗
USGS2005

Performance of four turbulence closure models implemented using a generic length scale method

A two-equation turbulence model (one equation for turbulence kinetic energy and a second for a generic turbulence length-scale quantity) proposed by Umlauf and Burchard [J. Marine Research 61 (2003) 235] is implemented in a three-dimensional oceanographic model (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System; ROMS v2.0). These two equations, along with several stability functions, can represent many popular turbulence closures, including the k-kl (Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5), k-??, and k-?? schemes. The implementation adds flexibility to the model by providing an unprecedented range of turbulence closure selections in a single 3D oceanographic model and allows comparison and evaluation of turbulence models in an otherwise identical numerical environment. This also allows evaluation of the effect of turbulence models on other processes such as suspended-sediment distribution or ecological processes. Performance of the turbulence models and sediment-transport schemes is investigated with three test cases for (1) steady barotropic flow in a rectangular channel, (2) wind-induced surface mixed-layer deepening in a stratified fluid, and (3) oscillatory stratified pressure-gradient driven flow (estuarine circulation) in a rectangular channel. Results from k-??, k-??, and gen (a new closure proposed by Umlauf and Burchard [J. Marine Research 61 (2003) 235]) are very similar for these cases, but the k-kl closure results depend on a wall-proximity function that must be chosen to suit the flow. Greater variations appear in simulations of suspended-sediment concentrations than in salinity simulations because the transport of suspended-sediment amplifies minor variations in the methods. The amplification is caused by the added physics of a vertical settling rate, bottom stress dependent resuspension, and diffusive transport of sediment in regions of well mixed salt and temperature. Despite the amplified sensitivity of sediment to turbulence models in the estuary test case, the four closures investigated here all generated estuarine turbidity maxima that were similar in their shape, location, and concentrations.

Ocean Modelling↗
USGS2003

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas.

Climate Dynamics↗