Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Natural Hazards Observer”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Earthquake ground-motion model adjustments for the San Francisco Bay area

We develop adjustments to ergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs) to improve their performance in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). GMMs are widely used in hazard assessments to estimate characteristics of ground shaking based on known properties of the source, path, and site. Such models are often developed using datasets containing records from various regions, resulting in models that represent median ground‐motion behavior, which may not adequately represent ground motions within subregions. This is true for the SFBA, where ground motions attenuate more rapidly with distance than in many other parts of California that dominate GMM databases. To support improved seismic hazard estimates in the SFBA, we calculate regional constants and anelastic attenuation coefficient adjustments relative to two commonly used ergodic GMMs: BSSA14 ( Boore et al. , 2014 ) and ASK14 ( Abrahamson et al. , 2014 ). These adjustments are obtained for a suite of ground‐motion intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration at oscillator periods ranging from 0.075 to 10 s) using mixed‐effects regression. Use of the regionally adjusted models reduces the overall bias by up to 0.5 natural log units for BSSA14 and up to 0.6 natural log units for ASK14. We demonstrate one application of our attenuation adjustments and their implications in an earthquake early warning case study of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The predicted extent of shaking using the adjusted models better matches observed shaking at large source‐to‐site distances, especially for lower shaking intensities, thus potentially reducing overalerting. We encourage the use of our model adjustments when ergodic models are considered for seismic hazard studies in the SFBA.

California

Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts

Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building damage forecasts for the 9 January 2018 Montecito postfire debris-flow runout event, in which over 500 buildings were damaged. We constructed forecasts using either peak debris-flow depth or momentum flux as the hazard intensity measure and applied each approach using three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO-2D, and D-Claw). Generated forecasts were based on averaging multiple simulations that sampled a range of debris-flow volume and mobility, reflecting typical sources and magnitude of pre-event uncertainty. We found that only forecasts made with momentum flux and the D-Claw model could correctly predict the observed number of damaged buildings and the spatial patterns of building damage. However, the best forecast only predicted 50 % of the observed damaged buildings correctly and had coherent spatial patterns of incorrectly predicted building damage (i.e., false positives and false negatives). These results indicate that forecasts made at the building level reliably reflect the spatial pattern of damage but do not support interpretation at the individual building level. We found the event size strongly influences the number of damaged buildings and the spatial pattern of debris-flow depth and velocity. Consequently, future research on the link between precipitation and the volume of sediment mobilized may have the greatest effect on reducing uncertainty in building damage forecasts. Finally, because we found that both depth and velocity are needed to predict building damage, comparing debris-flow models against spatially distributed observations of building damage is a more stringent test for model fidelity than comparison against the extent of debris-flow runout.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Alaska

National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive

The National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA) resides at the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Through the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992, the U.S. Congress directed the Department of the Interior (DOI) to establish a permanent Government archive containing satellite remote sensing data of the Earth's land surface and to make this data easily accessible and readily available. This unique DOI/USGS archive provides a comprehensive, permanent, and impartial observational record of the planet's land surface obtained throughout more than five decades of satellite remote sensing. Satellite-derived data and information products are primary sources used to detect and understand changes such as deforestation, desertification, agricultural crop vigor, water quality, invasive plant species, and certain natural hazards such as flood extent and wildfire scars.

Fact Sheet

Proceedings of the 9th U.S.-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research

Introduction The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced study toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Ninth Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both the U.S. and Japan. The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 10th UJNR meeting. We look forward to continued cooperation on issues involving the densification of observation networks and the open exchange of data among scientific communities. We recognize the importance of making information publicly available in a timely manner. We also recognize the importance of information exchange on research policy and strategies, including the frameworks of research organizations. Areas of Cooperation –Specific areas of earthquake research where cooperative research between the U.S. and Japan may lead to significant advancement include, but are not limited to: –Probabilistic earthquake and tsunami hazard estimation, including extraordinarily large earthquakes, both in our respective countries and worldwide, incorporating knowledge of current and past behavior, and physics based computational models; –Real-time information from seismic, geodetic and strain measurements, including borehole strainmeters and seafloor observations using offshore cabled networks; –Technologies for measuring crustal deformation; –Early warning technologies for earthquakes and tsunamis; Studies of recurrence of large and extraordinary large earthquakes using paleoseismic, paleotsunami, geodetic and seismic methods; –Laboratory, theoretical and in situ studies of fault-zone processes; –Studies of episodic tremor and slow slip events using seismic, geodetic, and borehole strain measurements, and simulation techniques; –Systematic studies of earthquake predictability through rigorously evaluated scientific prediction experiments and robust databases; –Studies of near-source ground motions, geological effects and the response of engineered structures. The Panel strongly urges that the appropriate agencies in the U.S. and Japan that are represented on this panel work together with the academic sector to support and coordinate scientific work in these areas of cooperation. The Panel recognizes the importance of promoting the exchange of scientific personnel, exchange of data, and fundamental studies to advance progress in earthquake research. The U.S. and Japan should promote these exchanges throughout the world. The Panel endorses continuation of these activities.

Open-File Report

2011 Year in review - Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center's 2011 Year in Review is an annual report recounting the broad scope of the Center's 2011 accomplishments. The report covers preparations for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) launch, the ever-increasing use of free Landsat data, monitoring the effects of natural hazards, and more to emphasize the importance of innovation in using satellite data to study change over time.

South Dakota

Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We perform linear mixed-effects analyses with a ground-motion dataset to evaluate how well ground-motion models (GMMs) fit active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Most of the GMMs reproduce the spatial variation in peak ground motions with earthquake magnitude and rupture distance but predict ground motions 0.3–1.0 natural log units (35%–270%) greater than observations. Two GMMs developed for Puerto Rico that are based on ground-motion records from mostly magnitude 4–5 earthquakes do not perform as well. We attribute the period-dependent overprediction in observed ground motions to differences between the observed site response and the linear site response in the GMMs. Consequently, we developed region-specific GMMs by adjusting the period-dependent linear site response coefficients and period-dependent constant coefficients to remove most of the bias between predicted ground motions and observations. For the analysis, we compile ground-motion records and process waveforms to build a dataset with 10,127 records at 72 stations from 849 magnitude 4.0–6.4 earthquakes between 1 January 2006 and 31 March 2024. The earthquakes include active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab events. We evaluate the GMMs using the time-averaged shear wave speed in the top 30 m ( ), which we compile from site surveys and proxy values computed from horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Site terms exhibit strong consistency across GMMs and crustal and subduction earthquakes, indicating that the linear mixed-effects analysis successfully isolates the effects of local site response. The event terms show little spatial correlation and more substantial variability than in other regions, which we attribute to uncertainties in the earthquake magnitudes. This analysis guides the selection of the GMMs for the 2025 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Probabilistic regional-scale liquefaction triggering modeling using 3D Gaussian processes

Liquefaction is a major cause of coseismic damages, occurring irregularly over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers in large earthquakes. Large variations in the extent and location of liquefaction have been observed in recent earthquakes, motivating the need for prediction methods that consider the spatial heterogeneity of geologic deposits at a regional scale. Contemporary regional-scale liquefaction hazard analyses are typically performed using only surficial data, which does not address the complicated subsurface mechanics and spatial variability associated with artificial fill and natural soil deposits. In this study, we develop a probabilistic, regional-scale, subsurface model using data from hundreds of borings to better understand subsurface conditions that could influence liquefaction. We then use this subsurface sample database to train Gaussian process models, yielding 3D independent random fields of groundwater depth, soil plasticity, and penetration resistance for each geologic unit. We incorporate the Gaussian process models into probabilistic liquefaction triggering procedures, producing 3D estimates of the probability of liquefaction for an example study area in Portland, Oregon. Near sampling locations, the variance of the Gaussian process models approaches the variance of site-specific liquefaction triggering procedures. Conversely, when no sample data are nearby to condition a Gaussian process, the variance approaches the marginal variance of the entire recorded dataset. Thus, the procedure described in this study unifies probabilistic site-specific and regional-scale liquefaction triggering procedures and provides an important step towards quantitative liquefaction hazard assessments for regionally distributed infrastructures, such as levees, pipelines, roadways, and electrical transmission facilities.

Oregon

Gravitational body forces focus North American intraplate earthquakes

Earthquakes far from tectonic plate boundaries generally exploit ancient faults, but not all intraplate faults are equally active. The North American Great Plains exemplify such intraplate earthquake localization, with both natural and induced seismicity generally clustered in discrete zones. Here we use seismic velocity, gravity and topography to generate a 3D lithospheric density model of the region; subsequent finite-element modelling shows that seismicity focuses in regions of high-gravity-derived deviatoric stress. Furthermore, predicted principal stress directions generally align with those observed independently in earthquake moment tensors and borehole breakouts. Body forces therefore appear to control the state of stress and thus the location and style of intraplate earthquakes in the central United States with no influence from mantle convection or crustal weakness necessary. These results show that mapping where gravitational body forces encourage seismicity is crucial to understanding and appraising intraplate seismic hazard.

Nature Communications

Under-forecasting wet avalanche cycles: Case studies and lessons learned from two wet avalanche cycles in northwest Montana and central Colorado

Predicting the timing and location of natural wet avalanche events is challenging, especially the release of wet slabs. In this study, we describe the existing snowpack structure, weather, and observed avalanche activity for two separate wet avalanche cycles in different avalanche climate types: northwest Montana and central Colorado. In both cases, the regional avalanche forecast centers initially predicted an avalanche hazard rating lower than the observed avalanche hazard and did not initially predict the occurrence of wet slab avalanches. Large wet slab avalanche activity began during the early stages of the first, rapid warming event of the season in both regions, challenging the notion that a lack of overnight refreeze is important for large wet avalanche cycles. This highlights the need for improvement in forecasting wet avalanche events/cycles. Here, we discuss lessons learned and operational strategies for improving forecast accuracy during significant melting events. These include focused field assessments in shallow snowpack areas and low elevation terrain, proactive late-day monitoring beyond normal field hours, and additional meteorological considerations, such as cloud cover and energy balance assessments, prior to and during notable warm-ups.

Colorado, Montana

Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States. The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

Open-File Report

Generation of pyroclastic flows and surges by hot-rock avalanches from the dome of Mount St. Helens volcano, USA

Several hot-rock avalanches have occurred during the growth of the composite dome of Mount St. Helens, Washington between 1980 and 1987. One of these occurred on 9 May 1986 and produced a fan-shaped avalanche deposit of juvenile dacite debris together with a more extensive pyroclastic-flow deposit. Laterally thinning deposits and abrasion and baking of wooden and plastic objects show that a hot ash-cloud surge swept beyond the limits of the pyroclastic flow. Plumes that rose 2-3 km above the dome and vitric ash that fell downwind of the volcano were also effects of this event, but no explosion occurred. All the facies observed originated from a single avalanche. Erosion and melting of craterfloor snow by the hot debris caused debris flows in the crater, and a small flood that carried juvenile and other clasts north of the crater. A second, broadly similar event occurred in October 1986. Larger events of this nature could present a significant volcanic hazard. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology

Wildfire as a catalyst for hydrologic and geomorphic change

Wildfire has been a constant presence on the Earth since at least the Silurian period, and is a landscape-scale catalyst that results in a step-change perturbation for hydrologic systems, which ripples across burned terrain, shaping the geomorphic legacy of watersheds. Specifically, wildfire alters two key landscape properties: (1) overland flow, and (2) soil erodibility. Overland flow and soil erodibility have both been seen to increase after wildfires, resulting in order-of-magnitude increases in erosion rates during rainstorms with relatively frequent recurrence intervals. On short timescales, wildfire increases erosion and leads to natural hazards that are costly and threatening to society. Over longer timescales, wildfire-induced erosion can account for the majority of total denudation in certain settings with long- term implications for landscape evolution. There is a special focus on debris flows in this document because they are the most destructive geomorphic process that is observed to follow wildfires after high severity burns. In the past several decades researchers have investigated important aspects of post-wildfire debris flows, such as: the provenance of sediment that is moved in debris flows, the hydrologic and soil properties required to produce debris flows, and debris flow initiation mechanisms. Herein we highlight the relevant research articles showing the current state of progress in debris flow research as well as pointing to the fundamental research on post-wildfire hydrology and erosion that is necessary for understanding how water and sediment behave after wildfires.

Environmental Science

Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region

Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after every large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakes greater than M 5 that might have been triggered by every M 7 or larger mainshock during the past 30 years. We compare the timing of earthquakes greater than M 5 with the temporal and spatial passage of surface waves generated by large earthquakes using a complete worldwide catalogue. Whereas small earthquakes are triggered immediately during the passage of surface waves at all spatial ranges, we find no significant temporal association between surface-wave arrivals and larger earthquakes. We observe a significant increase in the rate of seismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of the mainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes is increased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.

Nature Geoscience

Reducing loss of life and property from disasters: A societal benefit area of the strategic plan for U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)

Natural and technological disasters, such as hurricanes and other extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and debris flows, wildland and urban-interface fires, floods, oil spills, and space-weather storms, impose a significant burden on society. Throughout the United States, disasters inflict many injuries and deaths, and cost the nation $20 billion each year (SDR, 2003). Disasters in other countries can affect U.S. assets and interests overseas (e.g. the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which effectively destroyed Clark Air Force Base). Also, because they have a disproportionate impact on developing countries, disasters are major barriers to sustainable development. Improving our ability to assess, predict, monitor, and respond to hazardous events is a key factor in reducing the occurrence and severity of disasters, and relies heavily on the use of information from well-designed and integrated Earth observation systems. To fully realize the benefits gained from the observation systems, the information derived must be disseminated through effective warning systems and networks, with products tailored to the needs of the end users and the general public.

Open-File Report

An examination of historic inorganic sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in several marsh types within the Mobile Bay and and Mobile-Tensaw River Delta region

Mass accumulation rates (MAR; g cm -2 y -1 ), linear sedimentation rates (LSR; cm y -1 ), and core geochronology derived from excess lead-210 ( 210 Pb) profiles and inventories measured in six sediment cores collected from marsh sites from the MobileTensaw River Delta and Mobile Bay region record the importance of both continuous and event-driven inorganic sedimentation over the last 120 years. MAR in freshwater marshes varied considerably between sites and through time (0.24 and 1.31 g cm -2 y -1 ). The highest MARs occurred in the 1950s and 1960s and correspond to record discharge events along the Mobile and Tensaw Rivers. In comparison, MAR at salt marsh sites increased almost threefold over the last 120 years (0.05 to 0.18 g cm -2 y -1 or 0.23 to 0.48 cm y -1 ). From 1880 to 1960, organic accumulation remained fairly constant (20%), while intermittent pulses of high inorganic sedimentation were observed following 1960. The pulses in inorganic sedimentation coincide with several major hurricanes (e.g., Hurricanes Camille, Fredric, Georges, and Ivan). The nearly threefold increase in MAR in salt marshes during the last 120 years would thus appear to be partially dependent on inorganic sedimentation from storm events. This study shows that while hurricanes, floods, and other natural hazards are well-known threats to human infrastructure and coastal ecosystems, these events also transport sediment to marshes that help abate other pressures such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence.

Alabama

Geotechnical characterization of TriNet sites: A status report

The TriNet project, launched in 1997, created an improved, real-time seismic monitoring network in Southern California. Planning of the network began in 1995 ( e.g. , Heaton et al. , 1996 ), building on the success of the earlier TERRAscope network, which included 24 digital broadband and strong-motion instruments throughout Southern California ( e.g. , Kanamori et al. , 1993 ). At the end of the five-year TriNet project the network comprised 150 real-time digital broadband stations and another 400 strong-motion sensors, 50 of which were also real-time. This network is now recording digital broadband data for Southern California earthquakes at an unprecedented rate, data that are already proving valuable for investigations of earthquake sources and regional wave propagation, as well as earthquake response. In this report we describe an ongoing effort aimed at a full geotechnical characterization of the newly installed TriNet sets. Shallow geologic structure is known to play a substantial role in controlling the ground motions recorded at any site. Documentation of amplified ground motion at soft-sediment sites can be found among even early macroseismic observations of strong ground motions ( e.g. , Drake, 1815 ). Seismic waves are also now known to be strongly affected by deep basin structure as well ( e.g. , Frankel et al. , 1991 ; Field, 2000 ; Joyner, 2000 ). It will be necessary to understand these effects to exploit fully the rich data set being recorded at TriNet sites. Clearly, the nature of site conditions and site response at the recording sites must be understood for studies focused on ground motions and hazard from future large earthquakes, but it is also necessary to understand these effects to conduct earthquake source studies of both large and small earthquakes. Our multifaceted site characterization project involves geological/geotechnical site investigations, database development, and investigation of empirical amplification factors determined from broadband and strong-motion data recorded to date. Our goal is to complete a first-order geologic site characterization by 2005 and then employ appropriate methods to obtain direct constraint on shallow shear-wave velocity structure at each site. In the latter effort we will endeavor to find the most accurate and cost-effective methods to quantify geotechnical parameters at sites that have ranges of geologic site conditions and cultural settings. Our long-term goal is to obtain direct estimates of the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, Vs30, at each site. If velocity information is available to greater depths, for example at sites characterized under the ROSRINE project ( http://geoinfo.usc.edu/rosrine/ ), this information will be included in the database as well. The original motivation for using Vs30 to characterize near-surface velocity was pragmatic, determined by such factors as the typical reach of a drill rig in a single day. The parameter has become the accepted standard with which many seismic recording sites are characterized, however. In a recent study using mainshock and aftershock recordings at sites in the Los Angeles region, Wald and Mori ( 2000 ) observed good correlation between Vs30 and amplification at 1-7 Hz, albeit with significant scatter. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we describe our ongoing efforts and present site characterization results collected to date for 62 broadband and strong-motion stations in and around the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region. Second, we present preliminary results that illustrate how improved geologic site characterizations can improve the correlation between site conditions and site response. Finally, we invite feedback from the community to guide our future investigations, in particular with respect to our ongoing database development efforts.

California

Biological implications for contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes–Upper St Lawrence River drainage: An effect-based ecological hazard assessment in fish

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are released widely and continuously into the Great Lakes Basin–Upper St Lawrence River study area, with many detected in surface water at concentrations known to adversely affect fish. We applied a recent ecological hazard assessment methodology to identify the biological significance of a database of 21,441 surface water CEC concentrations compiled from 7,162 surface water samples collected at 1,021 sampling sites in 387 individual waterbodies throughout the Great Lakes Basin. We assessed hazard to fish in 12 effect categories (e.g., mortality, developmental, reproductive) from aqueous exposure to 16 emerging contaminants. Our hazard assessment used pairs of screening values to generate contaminant- and effect-specific ordinal hazard scores. Using this novel methodology, we generated a database of 93,864 hazard scores. We found the highest level of hazard to fish, indicating probable adverse impacts, was broadly distributed and often associated with municipalities. Mortality, reproductive, and developmental effect categories combined accounted for 17.5% of high hazard observations. Low hazard, indicating possible adverse effects, was prevalent for numerous effect categories and occurred throughout the period 1991–2021. For mortality, reproductive, and developmental effect categories, the incidence of elevated hazard (low or high hazard) among assessed water samples was 20.4%, 39.5%, and 20.3%, respectively. On a local scale, effect-based assessment is an efficient and conceptually simple tool for natural resource managers to obtain effect- and site-specific hazard information concerning CEC effects in fish that can be used in project planning and results interpretation for natural resource monitoring, restoration, and protection.

Great Lakes–Upper St Lawrence River study area