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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Flood plain and channel dynamics of the Quinault and Queets Rivers, Washington, USA

Comparison of historic channel migration rates, modern planform conditions, and overall sediment, wood, and flow conditions and interactions for the Quinault River and Queets River in the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington, reveals decadal- to century-scale interactions between gravel-bed channels and forested flood plains in temperate maritime environments. The downstream alluvial portions of these two rivers can be divided into three reaches of different slope, flow, sediment, and wood regimes: (i) the upper Quinault River is aggrading behind Lake Quinault, a natural lake that traps most sediment and wood transported from the Olympic Mountain headwaters. (ii) The lower Quinault River, downstream of Lake Quinault, transports only sediment and wood derived from reworking of flood-plain deposits and contributed from valley margins. (iii) The Queets River has unimpeded movement of sediment and water from the mountainous headwaters to the Pacific Ocean. Measurements of channel planform characteristics and historic migration rates and patterns show that these three reaches have correspondingly distinct channel and flood-plain morphologies and dynamics. The aggrading and sediment-rich upper Quinault River has the widest flood plain, widest active channel, greatest number of low-flow channels and flanking gravel bars, and an average channel migration rate of 12.7±3.3 m/year between 1900 and 1994. The comparatively sediment-poor lower Quinault River has the narrowest flood plain, narrowest active channel, and lowest channel migration rate (4.0±1.2 m/year); and most flow is through a single channel with few adjacent gravel bars. The Queets River has attributes intermediate between the lower and upper Quinault Rivers, including an average channel migration rate of 7.5±2.9 m/year. Flood-plain turnover rates are similar for all three reaches, with channels eroding the flood plain at the rate of about 0.2% of the flood-plain area per year, and with corresponding flood-plain half-lives of 300 to 500 years. Observations from this study and previous studies on the Queets River show that channel and flood-plain dynamics and morphology are affected by interactions between flow, sediment, and standing and entrained wood, some of which likely involve time frames similar to 200–500-year flood-plain half-lives. On the upper Quinault River and Queets River, log jams promote bar growth and consequent channel shifting, short-distance avulsions, and meander cutoffs, resulting in mobile and wide active channels. On the lower Quinault River, large portions of the channel are stable and flow within vegetated flood plains. However, locally, channel-spanning log jams have caused channel avulsions within reaches that have been subsequently mobile for several decades. In all three reaches, log jams appear to be areas of conifer germination and growth that may later further influence channel and flood-plain conditions on long time scales by forming flood-plain areas resistant to channel migration and by providing key members of future log jams. Appreciation of these processes and dynamics and associated temporal and spatial scales is necessary to formulate effective long-term approaches to managing fluvial ecosystems in forested environments.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2019

Reanalysis of the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers: Long-term insight into climate forcing of glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers integrate climate processes to provide an unmatched signal of regional climate forcing. However, extracting the climate signal via intercomparison of regional glacier mass balance records can be problematic when methods for extrapolating and calibrating direct glaciological measurements are mixed or inconsistent. To address this problem, we reanalyzed and compared long-term mass balance records from the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers. These five glaciers span maritime and continental climate regimes of the western United States and Alaska. Each glacier exhibits cumulative mass loss since the mid-20th century, with average rates ranging from –0.58 to –0.30 m water equivalent (w.e.) a-1. We produced a set of solutions using different extrapolation and calibration methods to inform uncertainty estimates, which range from 0.22–0.44 m w.e. a-1. Mass losses are primarily driven by increasing summer warming. Continentality exerts a stronger control on mass loss than latitude. Similar to elevation, topographic shading, snow redistribution, and glacier surface features often exert first-order control on mass balance. The reanalysis underscores the value of geodetic calibration to resolve mass balance magnitude, as well as the irreplaceable value of direct measurements in contributing to process-based understanding of glacier mass balance.

Journal of Glaciology↗
USGS1997

Arias intensity assessment of liquefaction test sites on the east side of San Francisco Bay affected by the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of 17 October 1989

Uncompacted artificial-fill deposits on the east side of San Francisco Bay suffered severe levels of soil liquefaction during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. Damaged areas included maritime-port facilities, office buildings, and shoreline transportation arteries, ranging from 65 to 85 km from the north end of the Loma Prieta rupture zone. Typical of all these sites, which represent occurrences of liquefaction-induced damage farthest from the rupture zone, are low cone penetration test and Standard Penetration Test resistances in zones of cohesionless silty and sandy hydraulic fill, and underlying soft cohesive Holocene and Pleistocene sediment that strongly amplified ground motions. Postearthquake investigations at five study sites using standard penetration tests and cone penetration tests provide a basis for evaluation of the Arias intensity-based methodology for assessment of liquefaction susceptibility.

California↗
USGS2007

Law of the sea, the continental shelf, and marine research

The question of the amount of seabed to which a coastal nation is entitled is addressed in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This treaty, ratified by 153 nations and in force since 1994, specifies national obligations, rights, and jurisdiction in the oceans, and it allows nations a continental shelf out to at least 200 nautical miles or to a maritime boundary. Article 76 (A76) of the convention enables coastal nations to establish their continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles and therefore to control, among other things, access for scientific research and the use of seabed resources that would otherwise be considered to lie beyond national jurisdiction. To date, seven submissions for extended continental shelves (ECS) have been filed under UNCLOS (Table 1). These submissions have begun to define the ambiguities in A76. How these ambiguities are resolved into final ECS boundaries will probably set important precedents guiding the future delimitation of the ECS by the United States, which has not ratified the convention, and other coastal nations. This report uses examples from the first three submissions—by the Russian Federation, Brazil, and Australia—to identify outstanding issues encountered in applying A76 to ECS delimitation.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2012

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R 2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d -2 ). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Sierra Nevada;Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2014

The glacial anticyclone theory examined in the light of recent meteorological data from Greenland—Part I

The glacial anticyclone theory, which William H. Hobbs propounded in 1910, is today still the only definitely formulated theory concerning the atmospheric movements that take place over an ice sheet of large extent. It stands chiefly on deductive grounds and contains several features that to climatologists as well as to glaciologists have always seemed questionable. Aside from the need of its verification for scientific reasons, there is now also urgent practical need for reliable information about the weather conditions that prevail over the ice sheet of Greenland, for Greenland lies athwart several of the great air routes of the future. In this paper, accordingly, the glacial anticyclone theory is first analyzed and then confronted with the facts of observation that are now at hand, especially those reported from the fixed meteorological stations which were maintained in the interior of Greenland during the 1930s. In this, the first part of the paper, the meteorological data from the Eismitte station of the German Wegener Expedition are reviewed. The second part will cover the areological data of that expedition and the similar material from the other ice‐cap stations. The conclusions reached are that there is no evidence of a virtually permanent “glacial anticyclone” centered over the Greenland ice sheet. On the contrary, there is consistent evidence from all parts of Greenland that the weather over the ice sheet is controlled by alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic movements. Cyclonic activity is most intense in southern Greenland and weakest in northern Greenland. The entire ice sheet is supplied with snow brought by rising maritime air masses, not by air descending from the upper troposphere. Aviators need not expect so much as a fifty‐fifty chance of meeting with good weather on flights across central Greenland, except for a few weeks in midsummer.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2018

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2021

Atlantic sturgeon status and movement ecology in an extremely small spawning habitat: The Nanticoke River-Marshyhope Creek, Chesapeake Bay

Biotelemetry of Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus has exposed spawning behaviors in ever-smaller estuaries, surprising for the NW Atlantic’s largest anadromous species. Small estuary — the Nanticoke River and Marshyhope Creek (Chesapeake Bay) — spawning-run adults and their habitat affinities are described based upon direct sampling and biotelemetry for the period 2014–2018. High rates of recapture over this period indicate a very small adult population size. Genetics revealed a very small effective population size ( N e = 12.2, 95% CI = 6.7–21.9). Most returns occurred during September at 20–27 °C. All fish departed as fall temperatures declined below 20 °C. Multi-beam sonar identified small-dispersed areas of sand-cobble and cobble, which could support adhesive embryo attachment. Movements of adults were higher during nighttime than daytime, with habitat preference for hard bottom habitats. Genetic evidence indicates that the sudden discovery of this population was unrelated to a hatchery release of several thousand juvenile sturgeon (Hudson River progeny) in 1997. The newly discovered population in the Nanticoke River exhibits a degree of resilience including multiple spawning regions and suitable spawning habitat. Still, critical vulnerabilities persist including curtailed habitat, continued agricultural and maritime development, invasive blue catfish, and a very small apparent population size.

Delaware, Maryland↗
USGS2022

Brown bear–sea otter interactions along the Katmai coast: Terrestrial and nearshore communities linked by predation

Sea otters were extirpated throughout much of their range by the maritime fur trade in the 18th and 19th centuries, including the coast of Katmai National Park and Preserve in southcentral Alaska. Brown bears are an important component of the Katmai ecosystem where they are the focus of a thriving ecotourism bear-viewing industry as they forage in sedge meadows and dig clams in the extensive tidal flats that exist there. Sea otters began reoccupying Katmai in the 1970s where their use of intertidal clam resources overlapped that of brown bears. By 2008, the Katmai sea otter population had grown to an estimated 7,000 animals and was likely near carrying capacity; however, in 2006–2015, the age-at-death distribution (AADD) of sea otter carcasses collected at Katmai included a higher-than-expected proportion of prime-age animals compared to most other sea otter populations in Alaska. The unusual AADD warranted scientific investigation, particularly because the Katmai population is part of the Threatened southwest sea otter stock. Brown bears in Katmai are known to prey on marine mammals and sea otters, but depredation rates are unknown; thus, we investigated carnivore predation, especially by brown bears, as a potential explanation for abnormally high prime-age otter mortality. We installed camera traps at two island-based marine mammal haulout sites within Katmai to gather direct evidence that brown bears prey on seals and sea otters. Over a period of two summers, we gathered photo evidence of brown bears making 22 attempts to prey on sea otters of which nine (41%) were successful and 12 attempts to prey on harbor seals of which one (8%) was successful. We also developed a population model based on the AADD to determine if the living population is declining, as suggested by the high proportion of prime-age animals in the AADD. We found that the population trend predicted by the modeled AADDs was contradictory to aerial population surveys that indicated the population was not in steep decline but was consistent with otter predation. Future work should focus on the direct and indirect effects these top-level predators have on each other and the coastal community that connects them.

Alaska↗
USGS1995

First record of an hypopus (Acari: Hypoderatidae) from a jaeger (Aves: Charadriiformes: Stercorariidae)

Thalassornectes (Alcidectes) aukletae, originally described from two species of auklets (Charadriiformes: Alcidae) from maritime eastern Russia, is reported from a third species of pelagic charadriiform (Stercorariidae), the pomarine jaeger, Stercorarius poinarinus (Temminck), from Florida. The specimens from the jaeger are slightly smaller, the genital apodeme is more heavily sclerotized, paired setae gm are twice as long and there are other minor variations in the idiosomal and leg chaetotaxy. These differences are not considered sufficient to warrant taxonomic separation at the species or subspecies level from the nominate species T. (A.) aukletae. The same hypopus occurring across different families of birds is unusual in the Hypoderatidae. The diversity in hosts from several orders of birds, low intensities of infection in the two species from Africa, low prevalences in alcids from Russia, and rarity of these hypoderatids in all surveyed hosts leads us to speculate that the true host affinities of species in the genus Thalassornectes are unknown. The alternative consideration is that these are simply uncommon species that are very host specific.

Florida↗
USGS2009

Land crabs as key drivers in tropical coastal forest recruitment

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse assortment of abiotic and biotic factors that influence seed dispersal and viability, and seedling establishment and growth at the microsite. Rarely does one animal guild exert as significant an influence on different plant assemblages as land crabs. We review three tropical coastal ecosystems-mangroves, island maritime forests, and mainland coastal terrestrial forests-where land crabs directly influence forest composition by limiting tree establishment and recruitment. Land crabs differentially prey on seeds, propagules and seedlings along nutrient, chemical and physical environmental gradients. In all of these ecosystems, but especially mangroves, abiotic gradients are well studied, strong and influence plant species distributions. However, we suggest that crab predation has primacy over many of these environmental factors by acting as the first limiting factor of tropical tree recruitment to drive the potential structural and compositional organisation of coastal forests. We show that the influence of crabs varies relative to tidal gradient, shoreline distance, canopy position, time, season, tree species and fruiting periodicity. Crabs also facilitate forest growth and development through such activities as excavation of burrows, creation of soil mounds, aeration of soils, removal of leaf litter into burrows and creation of carbon-rich soil microhabitats. For all three systems, land crabs influence the distribution, density and size-class structure of tree populations. Indeed, crabs are among the major drivers of tree recruitment in tropical coastal forest ecosystems, and their conservation should be included in management plans of these forests. ?? 2009 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2007

Multiple pathways for invasion of anurans on a Pacific island

Since 1937, thirteen species of non-indigenous anurans have made their way to Guam. Of these, at least six have established breeding populations. Various pathways led to the introduction of these species to the island. The only anuran intentionally introduced was Chaunus marinus (formerly Bufo marinus), which was brought to Guam as a biocontrol agent. Kaloula picta, K. pulchra, Polypedates leucomystax, and probably Litoria fallax arrived as stowaways via maritime or air-transport vessels. Eleutherodactylus coqui and Euhyas (formerly Eleutherodactylus) planirostris appear to have entered Guam through the horticultural trade. Specimens of Pseudacris regilla were found among agricultural products and Christmas trees. Five species have been transported to Guam via the aquacultural trade. The importation of tilapia, milkfish, and white shrimp from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines was associated with the introduction to Guam of Fejervarya cancrivora, F. limnocharis sensu lato, Microhyla pulchra, Polypedates megacephalus, and Sylvirana guentheri (formerly Rana guentheri). Presently, no quarantine or containment guidelines have been established for Guam's aquacultural industry. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2021

Translocations maintain genetic diversity and increase connectivity in sea otters, Enhydra lutris

Sea otters, Enhydra lutris , were once abundant along the nearshore areas of the North Pacific. The international maritime fur trade that ended in 1911 left 13 small remnant populations with low genetic diversity. Subsequent translocations into previously occupied habitat resulted in several reintroduced populations along the coast of North America. We sampled sea otters between 2008 and 2011 throughout much of their current range and used 19 nuclear microsatellite markers to evaluate genetic diversity, population structure, and connectivity between remnant and reintroduced populations. Average genetic diversity within populations was similar: observed heterozygosity 0.55 and 0.53, expected heterozygosity 0.56 and 0.52, unbiased expected heterozygosity 0.57 and 0.52, for reintroduced and remnant populations, respectively. Sea otter population structure was greatest between the Northern and Southern sea otters with further structuring in Northern sea otters into Western, Central, and Southeast populations (including the reintroduced populations). Migrant analyses suggest the successful reintroductions and growth of remnant groups have enhanced connectivity and gene flow between populations throughout many of the sampled Northern populations. We recommend that future management actions for the Southern sea otter focus on future reintroductions to fill the gap between the California and Washington populations ultimately restoring gene flow to the isolated California population.

North Pacific↗
USGS2013

Selecting among competing models of electro-optic, infrared camera system range performance

Range performance is often the key requirement around which electro-optical and infrared camera systems are designed. This work presents an objective framework for evaluating competing range performance models. Model selection based on the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is presented for the type of data collected during a typical human observer and target identification experiment. These methods are then demonstrated on observer responses to both visible and infrared imagery in which one of three maritime targets was placed at various ranges. We compare the performance of a number of different models, including those appearing previously in the literature. We conclude that our model-based approach offers substantial improvements over the traditional approach to inference, including increased precision and the ability to make predictions for some distances other than the specific set for which experimental trials were conducted.

Optical Engineering↗
USGS1966

Evidence for an early recent warm interval in northwestern Alaska

A warm interval that began at least 10,000 years ago and lasted until at least 8300 years ago is recorded in the coastal tundra covered area of northwestern Alaska by the presence of fossil wood of tree size or tree species, fossil beaver-gnawed wood found beyond the modern range of beaver, evidence of ice-wedge melting, buried soils, and soils that extend below the top of modern permafrost. Dating of the warm interval is based on eight radiocarbon dates. Although these do not provide tight control for either the beginning or the end, they permit the interpretation that the warm event began at the start of the worldwide, postglacial warming and that it ended at the time of the Anivik Lake glacial readvance in the Brooks Range. If this is correct, the early Recent warm interval and the "postglacial thermal maximum" recognized by Livingstone in the Brooks Range were separated by a period of cooler climate. Deposits 7200 and 3600 years old also record moments when the climate was warmer than at present in coastal northwestern Alaska . Although these may record a continuation of the early Recent warm period, it seems more likely that they represent later and separate brief intervals of warmer climate. A postglacial thermal maximum between 6000 and 3000 years ago is recorded by pollen profiles in the Brooks Range, but is not clearly recorded in the coastal areas of northwestern Alaska . We suggest that as sea level rose to near its present position, the accompanying maritime climate lowered summer temperatures in this coastal area during the time at which areas farther inland were experiencing the high temperatures of the postglacial thermal maximum.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Age and tectonic setting of the Quinebaug-Marlboro belt and implications for the history of Ganderian crustal fragments in southeastern New England, USA

Crustal fragments underlain by high-grade rocks represent a challenge to plate reconstructions, and integrated mapping, geochronology, and geochemistry enable the unravelling of the temporal and spatial history of exotic crustal blocks. The Quinebaug-Marlboro belt (QMB) is an enigmatic fragment on the trailing edge of the peri-Gondwanan Ganderian margin of southeastern New England. SHRIMP U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry indicate the presence of Ediacaran to Cambrian metamorphosed volcanic and intrusive rocks dated for the first time between ca. 540–500 Ma. The entire belt may preserve a cryptic, internal stratigraphy that is truncated by subsequent faulting. Detrital zircons from metapelite in the overlying Nashoba and Tatnic Hill Formations indicate deposition between ca. 485–435 Ma, with provenance from the underlying QMB or Ganderian crust. The Preston Gabbro (418 ± 3 Ma) provides a minimum age for the QMB. Mafic rocks are tholeiitic with trace elements that resemble arc and E-MORB sources, and samples with negative Nb-Ta anomalies are similar to arc-like rocks, but others show no negative Nb-Ta anomaly and are similar to rocks from E-MORB to OIB or backarc settings. Geochemistry points to a mixture of sources that include both mantle and continental crust. Metamorphic zircon, monazite, and titanite ages range from 400 to 305 Ma and intrusion of granitoids and migmatization occurred between 410 and 325 Ma. Age and chemistry support correlations with the Ellsworth terrane in Maine and the Penobscot arc and backarc system in Maritime Canada. The arc-rifting zone where the Mariana arc and the Mariana backarc basin converge is a possible modern analog.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗
USGS2007

Possible refugia in the Alexander Archipelago of southeastern Alaska during the late Wisconsin glaciation

The interpretation of the extent of late Wisconsin glaciation in southeastern Alaska has varied between geologists and biologists. Maps and reports of the region prepared by geologists commonly indicated that late Wisconsin ice extended as a large uniform front west to the edge of the continental shelf. However, the distribution of plants and animals in the region has led many biologists to suggest that there may have been ice-free areas that served as refugia during the late Wisconsin. Based on analyses of aerial photographs, topographic maps, and bathymetric charts, in conjunction with a review of previous literature and reconnaissance fieldwork throughout the region, this study presents data supporting a limited ice extent in the Alexander Archipelago during the late Wisconsin and identifies possible ice-free areas that may have served as refugia. These areas include (1) the Fairweather Ground, (2) the Herbert Graves Island area, (3) the western coast of southern Baranof Island and adjacent continental shelf, (4) Coronation Island and the adjacent continental shelf, (5) the Warren Island area, (6) the continental shelf from west of Heceta Island to Forrester Island in the south, (7) parts of the west coast of southern Dall Island, and (8) lowland areas in southern Prince of Wales Island. The identification of these possible refugia has bearing on the recolonization of the Alexander Archipelago, as they could have served as centers of biotic dispersal upon regional deglaciation and as stepping stones for early humans with a maritime tradition entering the western hemisphere from Asia. ?? 2007 NRC Canada.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences↗
USGS2015

The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation. While estimated independently, these leading EOFs across all variables fit together in a meaningful way, and the authors refer to them jointly as the west Pacific warming mode (WPWM). WPWM SST EOFs correspond closely in space and time. Their spatial patterns form a “western V” extending from the Maritime Continent into the extratropical Pacific. Their temporal principal components (PCs) have increased rapidly since 1990; this increase has been primarily due to radiative forcing and not natural decadal variability. WPWM circulation changes appear consistent with a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response associated with an ocean–atmosphere dipole structure contrasting increased (decreased) western (eastern) Pacific precipitation, SSHs, and ocean temperatures. These changes have enhanced the Walker circulation and modulated weather on a global scale. An AGCM experiment and the WPWM of global boreal spring precipitation indicate significant drying across parts of East Africa, the Middle East, the southwestern United States, southern South America, and Asia. Changes in the WPWM have tracked closely with precipitation and the increase in drought frequency over the semiarid and water-insecure areas of East Africa, the Middle East, and southwest Asia.

Journal of Climate↗