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Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Great Lakes, Lake Superior, Lake Huron, Lake Michi

Caddisflies (Insecta: Trichoptera) of fringing wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fringing wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes are subject to natural processes, such as water-level fluctuation and wave-induced erosion, and to human alterations. In order to evaluate the quality of these wetlands over space and time, biological communities are often examined. This paper reports on the use of adult caddisflies to evaluate fringing wetlands of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, W

Factors affecting the evolution of coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes: An overview

Coastal wetlands play a pivotal role in the Great Lakes ecosystem. As buffer zones between the land and open waters of the Great Lakes, they perform a variety of essential functions providing both direct and indirect anthropogenic benefits. Geology, morphology and climate are the dominant variables that influence Laurentian Great Lakes wetland development. However, anthropogenic factors are the major contributors to alteration of natural wetland processes. This paper provides an overview of natural and anthropogenic factors important in Great Lakes coastal wetland development and provides statistical information describing the Great Lakes Basin. A brief description of wetlands classification and research issues is also presented.

Great Lakes

A synthesis of the biology and ecology of sculpin species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and implications for the adaptive capacity of the benthic ecosystem

The Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced recent ecosystem changes that could lead to reductions in adaptive capacity and ultimately a loss of biodiversity and production throughout the food web. Observed changes in Great Lakes benthic communities include declines of native species and widespread success of invasive species like dreissenid mussels in all but Lake Superior. Understanding the ecology of native benthic deepwater preyfish and the reasons for their declines is important for predicting future losses in adaptive capacity and diversity, as well as managing the Great Lakes ecosystem to avoid such losses. Native sculpin species ( Cottus bairdii , C. cognatus , C. ricei , Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) historically were among the most abundant of the Great Lakes native deepwater benthic preyfish community and are an important link between offshore benthic and pelagic food webs. With one exception, these species have declined in abundance throughout the Great Lakes in recent years, but relatively little is known about their biology and ecology. This review synthesizes the available knowledge for the Great Lakes sculpin species and provides suggestions for future research efforts, which include understanding reproductive ecology and spawning behavior, connectivity and dispersal of populations, early life history, and influences of interactions with native and non-native species.

Great Lakes

Ten lessons for controlling invasive species: Wisdom from the long-standing sea lamprey control program on the Laurentian Great Lakes

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America is among the largest and most successful control programs of an invasive species anywhere on the planet. The effort began more than 75 years ago; it unites multiple nations, states, and provinces with the common goal of controlling this invasive species and protecting a valuable fishery. The science-based control program is administered by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC), a body arising from a treaty signed by the United States and Canada. In the present article, we share 10 lessons learned from decades of successful sea lamprey control with the hopes of informing ongoing and future control programs targeting biological invasions. The 10 lessons we identified are to act boldly in times of crisis, to maintain the social license, to invest in capacity building, to break down the silos, to support fundamental science, to diversify your portfolio of control measures, to strive for continuous improvement, to confront the trade-off between information and action, to keep your foot on the gas, and to keep your eyes on the prize. The GLFC has long fostered a framework that uses some military strategy and verbiage that extends across the lessons (e.g., know your enemy). Other lessons are more nascent as the GLFC reenvisions its relationship with Indigenous peoples and governments in a path to reconciliation where two-eyed seeing is being embraced. Through adaptive management, horizon scanning methods, and embracing implementation science, the lessons learned about sea lamprey control will continue to evolve, which is itself a lesson. We submit that the lessons shared in the present article will help guide invasive species control programs spanning taxa, ecosystems, and regions.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Changing ecosystem dynamics in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Bottom-up and top-down regulation

Understanding the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up regulation of ecosystem structure is a fundamental ecological question, with implications for fisheries and water-quality management. For the Laurentian Great Lakes, where, since the early 1970s, nutrient inputs have been reduced, whereas top-predator biomass has increased, we describe trends across multiple trophic levels and explore their underlying drivers. Our analyses revealed increasing water clarity and declines in phytoplankton, native invertebrates, and prey fish since 1998 in at least three of the five lakes. Evidence for bottom-up regulation was strongest in Lake Huron, although each lake provided support in at least one pair of trophic levels. Evidence for top-down regulation was rare. Although nonindigenous dreissenid mussels probably have large impacts on nutrient cycling and phytoplankton, their effects on higher trophic levels remain uncertain. We highlight gaps for which monitoring and knowledge should improve the understanding of food-web dynamics and facilitate the implementation of ecosystem-based management.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, new York,

Sustaining Namāēw (Lake Sturgeon): Partner-led climate adaptation for Indigenous fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Namāēw (Menominee; Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens ) have long supported Indigenous culture and food sovereignty but have declined by over 80% in the Laurentian Great Lakes, exacerbating their sensitivity to climate change. Following interest from Indigenous leaders, we initiated a partnership-driven effort to (1) assess climate effects and (2) develop potential adaptation options for Namāēw using a participatory, transdisciplinary approach that combines multiple ways of knowing. Through a literature review and nine semistructured conversations with officials from Indigenous Nations and organizations in the Great Lakes, we identified central themes including access, culture, and fish persistence. Other concerns included habitat, food web shifts, and water quality. Prominent adaptation themes involved population assessments, stocking, regulations, habitat restoration, interagency coordination, and cultural advocacy. These findings underscore the importance of partnership-driven research to support Indigenous fisheries through knowledge coproduction and equitable adaptation. Our approach provides a model to inform stewardship planning for fisheries that are facing global change.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Reconstructing half a century of coregonine recruitment reveals species-specific dynamics and synchrony across the Laurentian Great Lakes

Understanding how multiple species and populations vary in their recruitment dynamics can elucidate the processes driving recruitment across space and time. Lake Whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) and Cisco ( C. artedi ) are socioecologically important fishes across their range; however, many Laurentian Great Lakes populations have experienced declining, poor, or sporadic recruitment in recent decades. We integrated catch and age data from 38 long-term surveys across each of the Great Lakes and Lake Simcoe, resulting in a combined time series spanning 1960–2019. We estimated Lake Whitefish and Cisco year-class strength (YCS) in each lake using longitudinal mixed-effects regressions of relative cohort abundance. We subsequently quantified interspecific, spatial, and temporal synchrony in YCS using correlation and dynamic factor analyses. Lake Whitefish YCS was positively spatially synchronous on average, and YCS in all six lakes was elevated during the 1980s–1990s. In contrast, Cisco YCS was sporadic, not spatially synchronous, and highly variable around long-term, lake-specific means. YCS was not synchronous between species in any lake. Collectively, our analyses demonstrate that these species exhibit differential recruitment dynamics that may be regulated by species-specific factors. Results from this study can be leveraged in future research on the causes and consequences of cross-species, cross-basin recruitment variability.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Feeding ecology of the walleye (Percidae, Sander vitreus), a resurgent piscivore in Lake Huron (Laurentian Great Lakes) after shifts in the prey community

Recovering populations of piscivores can challenge understanding of ecosystem function due to impacts on prey and to potentially altered food webs supporting their production. Stocks of walleye (Percidae, Sander vitreus ), an apex predator in the Laurentian Great Lakes, crashed in the mid‐1900s. Management efforts led to recovery by 2009, but recovery coincided with environmental and fish community changes that also had implications for the feeding ecology of walleye. To evaluate potential changes in feeding ecology for this apex predator, we assessed diets in the main basin of Lake Huron and in Saginaw Bay, a large embayment of Lake Huron, during 2009–2011. Walleye switched their diets differently in the main basin and Saginaw Bay, with non‐native round goby (Gobiidae, Neogobius melanostomus ) and rainbow smelt (Osmeridae, Osmerus mordax ) more prevalent in diets in the main basin, and invertebrates, yellow perch (Percidae, Perca flavescens ) and gizzard shad (Clupeidae, Dorosoma cepedianum ) more prevalent in diets in the bay. Feeding strategy plots indicated that there was a high degree of individual specialisation by walleye in the bay and the main basin. Bioenergetic simulations indicated that walleye in Saginaw Bay need to consume 10%–18% more food than a walleye that spends part or all of the year in the main basin, respectively, in order to achieve the same growth rate. The differences in diets between the bay and main basin highlight the flexibility of this apex predator in the face of environmental changes, but changes in diet can alter energy pathways supporting piscivore production.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish

Genotyping-by-sequencing illuminates high levels of divergence among sympatric forms of coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Effective resource management depends on our ability to partition diversity into biologically meaningful units. Recent evolutionary divergence, however, can often lead to ambiguity in morphological and genetic differentiation, complicating the delineation of valid conservation units. Such is the case with the "coregonine problem," where recent postglacial radiations of coregonines into lacustrine habitats resulted in the evolution of numerous species flocks, often with ambiguous taxonomy. The application of genomics methods is beginning to shed light on this problem and the evolutionary mechanisms underlying divergence in these ecologically and economically important fishes. Here, we used restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to examine genetic diversity and differentiation among sympatric forms in the Coregonus artedi complex in the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior, the largest lake in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Using 29,068 SNPs, we were able to clearly distinguish among the three most common forms for the first time, as well as identify putative hybrids and potentially misidentified specimens. Population assignment rates for these forms using our RAD data were 93%-100% with the only mis-assignments arising from putative hybrids, an improvement from 62% to 77% using microsatellites. Estimates of pairwise differentiation ( F ST : 0.045-0.056) were large given the detection of hybrids, suggesting that reduced fitness of hybrid individuals may be a potential mechanism for the maintenance of differentiation. We also used a newly built C. artedi linkage map to look for islands of genetic divergence among forms and found widespread differentiation across the genome, a pattern indicative of long-term drift, suggesting that these forms have been reproductively isolated for a substantial amount of time. The results of this study provide valuable information that can be applied to develop well-informed management strategies and stress the importance of re-evaluating conservation units with genomic tools to ensure they accurately reflect species diversity.

Wisconsin

The Laurentian Great Lakes: A case study in ecological disturbance and climate change

Climate change effects are already significant, but can also magnify other ecological problems. This can be clearly seen in the Laurentian Great Lakes, which have suffered habitat degradation, fishery overharvest and dramatic alterations by invasive species. Thermal changes are expected to cause extensive loss of suitable fish habitat, and changing precipitation patterns will aggravate the problems with our highly modified lotic and lentic systems. A brief summary of the historic ecological context provided by the Great Lakes case is presented, followed by the descriptions of selected tools that help to understand and evaluate both ecological and climate change problems. Species distribution models and habitat classification combined with climate change predictions can identify the distribution and extent of optimal habitats, and identify which are most vulnerable to climate change. Ecological flow modelling can help to identify when critical flow changes are likely. Mechanistic simulation modelling specifies understanding of how aquatic systems function and can reveal cause and effect relationships. These tools can be used to help managers to protect optimal habitat, resist climate change effects to other habitats and adapt cultural systems to climate‐altered aquatic systems.

Great Lakes

Food‐web structure and ecosystem function in the Laurentian Great Lakes—Toward a conceptual model

The relationship between food‐web structure (i.e., trophic connections, including diet, trophic position, and habitat use, and the strength of these connections) and ecosystem functions (i.e., biological, geochemical, and physical processes in an ecosystem, including decomposition, production, nutrient cycling, and nutrient and energy flows among community members) determines how an ecosystem responds to perturbations, and thus is key to understanding the adaptive capacity of a system (i.e., ability to respond to perturbation without loss of essential functions). Given nearly ubiquitous changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts on global lake ecosystems, understanding the adaptive capacity of food webs supporting important resources, such as commercial, recreational, and subsistence fisheries, is vital to ecological and economic stability. Herein, we describe a conceptual framework that can be used to explore food‐web structure and associated ecosystem functions in large lakes. We define three previously recognised broad habitat compartments that constitute large lake food webs (nearshore, pelagic, and profundal). We then consider, at three levels, how energy and nutrients flow: (a) into each basal resource compartment; (b) within each compartment; and (c) among multiple compartments (coupling). Flexible shifts in food‐web structures (e.g., via consumers altering their diet or habitat) that sustain these flows in the face of perturbations provide evidence for adaptive capacity. We demonstrate the conceptual framework through a synthesis of food‐web structure and ecosystem function in the Laurentian Great Lakes, with emphasis on the upper trophic levels (i.e., fishes). Our synthesis showed evidence of notable adaptive capacity. For example, fishes increased benthic coupling in response to invasion by mussels and round gobies. However, we also found evidence of loss of adaptive capacity through species extirpations (e.g., widespread collapse in the abundance and diversity of ciscoes, Coregonus spp., except in Lake Superior). In large freshwater lakes, fishery managers have traditionally taken a top‐down approach, focusing on stocking and harvest policy. By contrast, water quality managers have focused on nutrient effects on chemical composition and lower trophic levels of the ecosystem. The synthesised conceptual model provides resource managers a tool to more systematically interpret how lower food‐web dynamics influence harvestable fish populations, and vice versa, and to act accordingly such that sustainable resource practices can be achieved. We identify key gaps in knowledge that impede a fuller understanding of the adaptive capacities of large lakes. In general, we found a greater uncertainty in our understanding of processes influencing energy and nutrient flow within and among habitats than flows into the system.

Great Lakes

Nutrient inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by source and watershed estimated using SPARROW watershed models

Nutrient input to the Laurentian Great Lakes continues to cause problems with eutrophication. To reduce the extent and severity of these problems, target nutrient loads were established and Total Maximum Daily Loads are being developed for many tributaries. Without detailed loading information it is difficult to determine if the targets are being met and how to prioritize rehabilitation efforts. To help address these issues, SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for estimating loads and sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from the United States (U.S.) portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Red River Basins. Results indicated that recent U.S. loadings to Lakes Michigan and Ontario are similar to those in the 1980s, whereas loadings to Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie decreased. Highest loads were from tributaries with the largest watersheds, whereas highest yields were from areas with intense agriculture and large point sources of nutrients. Tributaries were ranked based on their relative loads and yields to each lake. Input from agricultural areas was a significant source of nutrients, contributing ∼33-44% of the P and ∼33-58% of the N, except for areas around Superior with little agriculture. Point sources were also significant, contributing ∼14-44% of the P and 13-34% of the N. Watersheds around Lake Erie contributed nutrients at the highest rate (similar to intensively farmed areas in the Midwest) because they have the largest nutrient inputs and highest delivery ratio.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Morphometric variation among spawning cisco aggregations in the Laurentian Great Lakes: are historic forms still present?

Cisco (Coregonus artedi Leseur, formerly lake herring Leucichthys artedi Leseur) populations in each of the Laurentian Great Lakes collapsed between the late 1920s and early 1960s following a multitude of stressors, and never recovered in Lakes Michigan, Erie and Ontario. Prior to their collapse, Koelz (1929) studied Leucichthys spp. in the Great Lakes basin and provided a description of their diversity. Three cisco morphotypes were described; a ‘slim terete’morphotype (L. artedi artedi), a ‘deep compressed’ morphotype (L. artedi albus), and a deep-bodied form resembling tullibee in western Canadian lakes (L. artedi manitoulinus). Based on body measurements of 159 individuals (Koelz 1929), we used discriminant function analysis (DFA) to discriminate historic morphotypes. Shapes of historic morphotypes were found to vary significantly (Pillai’s trace = 1.16, P < 0.0001). The final DFA model used nine body measurements and correctly classified 90% of the historic cisco. Important discriminating measurements included body depth, eye diameter, and dorsal fin base and height. Between October-November of 2007-2011, we sampled cisco from 16 Great Lakes sites collecting digital photographs of over 1, 700 individuals. We applied the DFA model to their body measurements and classified each individual to a morphotype. Contemporary cisco from Lakes Superior, Ontario and Michigan were predominantly classified as artedi, while the most common classifications from northern Lake Huron were albus and manitoulinus. Finding historic morphotypes is encouraging because it suggests that the morphological variation present prior to their collapse still exists. We conclude that contemporary cisco having shapes matching the missing historic morphotypes in the lower lakes warrant special consideration as potential donor populations in reestablishment efforts.

Lake Michigan;Lake Erie;Lake Ontario;Lake Huron;La

Ecosystem classification and mapping of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Owing to the enormity and complexity of the Laurentian Great Lakes, an ecosystem classification is needed to better understand, protect, and manage this largest freshwater ecosystem in the world. Using a combination of statistical analyses, published knowledge, and expert opinion, we identified key driving variables and their ecologically relevant thresholds and delineated and mapped aquatic systems for the entire Great Lakes. We identified and mapped 77 aquatic ecological units (AEUs) that depict unique combinations of depth, thermal regime, hydraulic, and landscape classifiers. Those 77 AEU types were distributed across 1997 polygons (patches) ranging from 1 to >48 000 km 2 in area and were most diverse in the nearshore (35 types), followed by the coastal margin (26), and then the offshore (16). Our classification and mapping of ecological units captures gradients that characterize types of aquatic systems in the Great Lakes and provides a geospatial accounting framework for resource inventory, status and trend assessment; research for ecosystem questions; and management and policy-making.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Integrating acoustic telemetry research into management: successes and challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes

In the Laurentian Great Lakes, the application of acoustic telemetry to track fish movements has evolved into an important part of multijurisdictional management. Nevertheless, barriers remain in translating telemetry research into management or conservation actions. Here, we synthesize acoustic telemetry literature within the Great Lakes basin to explore factors that have contributed to successes and failures of integrating research with the needs of decision-making processes. Collaboration between researchers and managers, facilitated by consistent opportunities for stakeholder engagement, stood out as one of the most effective means of integration. For example, 79% (95 of 127) of articles published (up to 2023) included co-authorship by both government and academic organizations. Case studies on lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) further highlight how telemetry has informed management through collaborative engagement among researchers, stakeholders, and managers, as well as ongoing challenges. By exploring facets of acoustic telemetry research and connections to conservation and fisheries concerns, we identify pathways to reduce knowledge–action gaps widely applicable within and outside of the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Decreased water transparency of nearshore Laurentian Great Lakes habitats is driven by increased dissolved organic carbon.

Little is understood of lake browning (due to increased dissolved organic carbon; DOC) in large lakes such as the Laurentian Great Lakes. Lake browning can alter whole lake ecosystems, including decreasing exposure to damaging ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) which is strongly and selectively attenuated by DOC more so than photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). We compared the changes in UV-B and PAR transparency to DOC data collected during the ice-free seasons from 62 nearshore sites in four of the five Great Lakes from 2002 to 2022 using linear mixed effects regression models based on backwards selected Bayesian information criteria. Regionally, DOC significantly increased from 2002 to 2022 by 0.5% per year on average. DOC strongly and inversely explained the variability of UV-B and PAR transparencies, as did seasons and offshore influence on these habitats. We provide regional evidence of lake browning within the nearshore habitats of the Great Lakes as a strong contrast to the well-documented increased offshore water transparency associated with the spread of invasive dreissenid mussels.

Great Lakes