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USGS2021

Applying biodiversity metrics as surrogates to a habitat conservation plan

Unabated urbanization has led to environmental degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss across the globe. As an outcome of unmitigated land use, multi-jurisdictional agencies have developed land use plans that attempt to protect threatened or endangered species across selected areas by which some trade-offs between harm to species and additional conservation approaches are allowed among the partnering organizations. Typical conservation plans can be created to focus on single or multiple species, and although they may protect a species or groups of species, they may not account for biodiversity or its protection across the given area. We applied an approach that clustered deductive habitat models for terrestrial vertebrates into metrics that serve as surrogates for biodiversity and relate to ecosystem services. In order to evaluate this process, we collaborated with the partnering agencies who are creating a Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan in southern California and compared it to the entire Mojave Desert Ecoregion. We focused on total terrestrial vertebrate species richness and taxon groupings representing amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, and two special status species using the Normalized Index of Biodiversity (NIB). The conservation planning area had a lower NIB and was less species rich than the Mojave Desert Ecoregion, but the Mojave River riparian corridor had a higher NIB and was more species-rich, and while taxon analysis varied across the geographies, this pattern generally held. Additionally, we analyzed desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) and desert kit fox ( Vulpes macrotis arsipus ) as umbrella species and determined that both species are associated with increased NIB and large numbers of species for the conservation area. Our process provided the ability to incorporate value-added surrogate information into a formal land use planning process and used a metric, NIB, which allowed comparison of the various planning areas and geographic units. Although this process has been applied to Apple Valley, CA, and other geographies within the U.S., the approach has practical application for other global biodiversity initiatives.

California↗

USGS2010

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2009

Macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with patterns in land use and water quality

Most national parks were designated to preserve significant natural resources. Park borders often reflect political rather than ecological boundaries. Consequently, catchments of many streams are only partially within park boundaries, and are therefore subject to land use changes and potential contamination from non-point sources outside the park. The National Park Service has initiated a program to monitor natural resources, particularly those at risk from land use changes surrounding the parks. This effort requires the identification of response signatures indicative of the ecological effects of human activities. The goal of this chapter is to identify a biological response signature (e.g., indicator assemblages) for tributary streams in Cuyahoga Valley National Park. More than 20 first to fourth order tributary streams enter the Cuyahoga River within park boundaries. Many of these catchments are outside park boundaries and under suburban development. The purpose of this research is to provide park managers with a monitoring tool for identifying the extent and degree of aquatic resource degradation due to land use changes in tributary catchments.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Multiple in-stream stressors degrade biological assemblages in five U.S. regions

Biological assemblages in streams are affected by a wide variety of physical and chemical stressors associated with land-use development, yet the importance of combinations of different types of stressors is not well known. From 2013 to 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey completed multi-stressor/multi-assemblage stream ecological assessments in five regions of the United States (434 streams total). Diatom, invertebrate, and fish communities were enumerated, and five types of potential stressors were quantified: habitat disturbance, excess nutrients, high flows, basic water quality, and contaminants in water and sediment. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models for each biological assemblage and region generally included variables from all five stressor types and multiple stressors types in each model was the norm. Classification and regression tree (CART) models then were used to determine thresholds for each BRT model variable above which there appeared to be adverse effects (multi-metric index (MMI) models only). In every region and assemblage there was a significant inverse relation between the MMI and the number of stressors exerting potentially adverse effects. The number of elevated instream stressors often varied substantially for a given level of land-use development and the number of elevated stressors was a better predictor of biological condition than was development. Using the adverse effects-levels that were developed based on the BRT model results, 68% of the streams had two or more stressors with potentially adverse effects and 35% had four or more. Our results indicate that relatively small increases in the number of stressors of different types can have a large effect on a stream ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2015

Gully annealing by fluvially-sourced Aeolian sand: remote sensing investigations of connectivity along the Fluvial-Aeolian-hillslope continuum on the Colorado River

Processes contributing to development of ephemeral gully channels are of great importance to landscapes worldwide, and particularly in dryland regions where soil loss and land degradation from gully erosion pose long-term, land-management problems. Whereas gully formation has been relatively well studied, much less is known of the processes that anneal gullies and impede their growth. This work investigates gully annealing by aeolian sediment, along the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons, Arizona, USA (Figure 1). In this segment of the Colorado River, gully erosion potentially affects the stability and preservation of archaeological sites that are located within valley margins. Gully erosion occurs as a function of ephemeral, rainfall-induced overland flow associated with intense episodes of seasonal precipitation. Measurements of sediment transport and topographic change have demonstrated that fluvial sand in some locations is transported inland and upslope by aeolian processes to areas affected by gully erosion, and aeolian sediment activity can be locally effective at counteracting gully erosion (Draut, 2012; Collins and others, 2009, 2012; Sankey and Draut, 2014). The degree to which specific locations are affected by upslope wind redistribution of sand from active channel sandbars to higher elevation valley margins is termed “connectivity”. Connectivity is controlled spatially throughout the river by (1) the presence of upwind sources of fluvial sand within the contemporary active river channel (e.g., sandbars), and (2) bio-physical barriers that include vegetation and topography that might impede aeolian sediment transport. The primary hypothesis of this work is that high degrees of connectivity lead to less gullying potential.

Colorado river; Grand Canyon↗

USGS2021

Assessing the ecological functionality and integrity of natural ponds, excavated ponds and stormwater basins for conserving amphibian diversity

Wetlands provide ecological functionality by maintaining and promoting regional biodiversity supporting quality habitat for aquatic organisms. Globally, habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation due to increases in agricultural activities and urban development have reduced or altered geographically isolated wetlands, thus reducing biodiversity. The objective of this study was to assess the relative ecological function and integrity of natural ponds, excavated ponds and stormwater basins in the New Jersey Pinelands, located in the northeastern United States by comparing hydrologic conditions, water quality, pesticide concentrations (water, sediment and tissue) and wetland assemblages including amphibians. Twenty-four wetlands were selected based on surrounding land-use and sampled for a variety of abiotic and biotic variables. Abiotic and biotic wetland variables were similar between natural and excavated ponds, with notable differences between the ponds and stormwater basins. Natural and excavated ponds displayed characteristic Pinelands water quality (low pH, high organic carbon, and low pesticide concentrations), exhibited high ecological integrity and supported native ampbibians. Stormwater basins and degraded ponds surrounded by altered land-use exhibited degraded water quality (high pH, high pesticide concentrations) and were dominated by non-native and introduced plants and amphibians. Results from this study can broadly inform resource conservation strategies for amphibians and other communities with a diverse range of habitat requirements, particularly in areas where conservation and development are competing priorities. To conserve biodiversity in changing landscapes, wetlands with similar functionality and land-use characteristics need to be identified and managed to preserve water quality for species of conservation concern.

New Jersey↗

USGS2017

Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics. The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence. Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large proportion of good-growth habitat and a sustained period of optimal growth habitat in the summer, without any periods of lethal oxythermal habitat. For Madison and Pearl Lakes, examples of important cool-water fish, particularly game fish, include northern pike ( Esox lucius ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), and black crappie ( Pomoxis nigromaculatus ); examples of important warm-water fish include bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ), and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Sensitivity analyses were completed to understand lake response effects through the use of controlled departures on certain calibrated model parameters and input nutrient loads. These sensitivity analyses also operated as land-use change scenarios because alterations in agricultural practices, for example, could potentially increase or decrease nutrient loads.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Wetlands

During the last decades, soil organic carbon (SOC) attracted the attention of a much wider array of specialists beyond agriculture and soil science, as it was proven to be one of the most crucial components of the earth’s climate system, which has a great potential to be managed by humans. Soils as a carbon pool are one of the key factors in several Sustainable Development Goals, in particular Goal 15, “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss” with the SOC stock being explicitly cited in Indicator 15.3.1. This technical manual is the first attempt to gather, in a standardized format, the existing data on the impacts of the main soil management practices on SOC content in a wide array of environments, including the advantages, drawbacks, and constraints. This manual presents different sustainable soil management (SSM) practices at different scales and in different contexts, supported by case studies that have been shown with quantitative data to have a positive effect on SOC stocks and successful experiences of SOC sequestration in practical field applications Volume 2 includes a description of hot spots of SOC stocks. This manual defines hot spots of SOC as areas that represent a proportionally little of the global land surface but on which SOC storage is highly effective; bright spots as large land areas with low SOC stocks per km2 that represent a potential for further carbon sequestration.

Report↗

USGS1999

Sustainable growth in America's heartland: 3-D geologic maps as the foundation

The Central Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio constitute one of the most productive and economically important regions in the country—America’s heartland. The agriculture, industry, business, recreation, and ecology of these States are based on a common geologic heritage. During the last 1.8 million years, glaciers repeatedly advanced and retreated across the region, leaving behind a thick, complex blanket of intermixed layers of mud, clay, silt, sand, and gravel. These glacial deposits contain bountiful resources—rich soils; plentiful ground water; minerals for construction; land for agriculture, development, recreation, and wildlife habitat; and lakes and rivers for recreation and wildlife habitat. These materials are also subject to natural hazards—floods, erosion, landslides, radon, and earthquakes—and manmade problems such as soil, sediment, and water contamination from point and nonpoint sources. Resulting land degradation has impaired and restricted human use and enjoyment of the land and caused degradation and loss of wildlife habitat. The continued economic growth of the region and the security of its population and environment are related to fundamental issues involving land, water, mineral, and biological resources. Addressing the conflicting demands on these resources without adequate information can result in land-use decisions that are not compatible with sustainable development and a continued high quality of life for future generations. Decisionmakers need knowledge of the glacial deposits— their characteristics, three-dimensional (3-D) distribution, and thickness. To provide this knowledge, a coalition of State and Federal Geological Surveys (Illinois State Geological Survey, Indiana Geological Survey, Michigan Geological Survey Division, Ohio Division of Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey) has formed to conduct the necessary studies in these four States to depict the 3-D nature of these glacial and related deposits and to interpret these data in cooperation with the user community for specific societal needs.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2020

A multispecies approach to manage effects of land cover and weather on upland game birds

Loss and degradation of grasslands in the Great Plains region have resulted in major declines in abundance of grassland bird species. To ensure future viability of grassland bird populations, it is crucial to evaluate specific effects of environmental factors among species to determine drivers of population decline and develop effective conservation strategies. We used threshold models to quantify the effects of land cover and weather changes in "lesser prairie-chicken" and "greater prairie-chicken" ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus and T. cupido , respectively), northern bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ), and ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ). We demonstrated a novel approach for estimating landscape conditions needed to optimize abundance across multiple species at a variety of spatial scales. Abundance of all four species was highest following wet summers and dry winters. Prairie chicken and ring-necked pheasant abundance was highest following cool winters, while northern bobwhite abundance was highest following warm winters. Greater prairie chicken and northern bobwhite abundance was also highest following cooler summers. Optimal abundance of each species occurred in landscapes that represented a grassland and cropland mosaic, though prairie chicken abundance was optimized in landscapes with more grassland and less edge habitat than northern bobwhites and ring-necked pheasants. Because these effects differed among species, managing for an optimal landscape for multiple species may not be the optimal scenario for any one species.

Kansas↗

USGS2020

Influence of land use and region on glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid in streams in the USA

Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the United States for agricultural and non-agricultural weed control. Many studies demonstrate possible effects of glyphosate and its degradate AMPA on human and ecological health. Although glyphosate is thought to have limited mobility in soil, it is found year-round in many rivers and streams throughout the world in both agricultural and developed environments. It is vitally important to continue to increase the knowledge base of glyphosate use, distribution, transport, and impacts on human health and the environment. Here we show that glyphosate and AMPA are found in nearly all of 70 streams throughout the United States at concentrations far below human health or ecological benchmarks, with less occurrence in the Northeast and that undeveloped land, classified as such by land use near the sampling station, has lower concentrations compared to other types of land. Results also show that sites with large watersheds tend to have more AMPA than glyphosate and the opposite is true for small watersheds. Travel times and opportunity for glyphosate to degrade to AMPA and for reservoirs of AMPA to grow are greater in large watersheds. Factors that promoted quick movement of glyphosate to streams, such as subsurface tile or storm drains, sewers, overland flow from developed landscapes, and arid landscapes were associated with sites that had greater concentrations of glyphosate compared to AMPA. These results contribute contemporary information and generalized interpretations adding to the knowledge base of the fate of glyphosate on a national scale and provide a springboard for further exploration of technical processes controlling transport to streams.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2004

Historical perspectives on the concept of ecosystem degradation

The concept of environmental degradation has evolved with the development of human society and settlement. In early human development, tribes went through a series of cycles of taming or developing mastery over the environment, to utilizing the resources of that environment until they could no longer support the population, which lead to moving on to do it again in a new area. There seems to have been little sense that human activity was causing any degradation, it was only that there was no longer enough food. This sense of the concept of degradation can even be seen as late as the 16th and 17th centuries in North America as Europeans "tamed" the land from the south, east, and north. For the Europeans, this taming of the "dangerous" and "inhospitable" lands even included the indigenous peoples. World-wide, as humans gathered into towns and cities, the impacts on the environment became increasingly widespread. Goods had to be brought to the people from further and further away. While agriculture and herd management were being developed, there was still the sense that these activities were improvements. It is a rather modern social understanding that human activities can and do damage and degrade natural ecosystems. The concept began to dawn when society began to understand that some activities caused degraded human health. Only recently has society begun to understand the need for generally healthy natural ecosystems and this understanding has brought with it a whole host of legal and political actions to make it happpen. ?? International Scientific Publications, New Delhi.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Potential 2050 distributions of World Terrestrial Ecosystems from projections of changes in World Climate Regions and Global Land Cover

The urgency to address ecosystem loss is paramount, as both land use change and climate change will continue to rapidly alter and degrade natural ecosystems and reduce the many services they provide. To support conservation actions that mitigate impacts from these dual threats, we have developed potential World Terrestrial Ecosystem (WTE) distributions for 2050 following IPCC best practice guidelines. This projection of ecosystem distributions builds on the previously released 2015 WTEs, a snapshot of the distribution and conservation status of 431 terrestrial ecosystem types defined as distinct combinations of 18 global climate regions, 4 global landform classes, and 8 global vegetation/land cover classes. Extending that work herein, we modeled the potential 2050 WTE distributions based on projections of five CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) and one global land cover change model, determined for three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The climate region modeling included projections for 2050 for both mean annual temperature and mean annual aridity. Model agreement for changes to WTEs was generally high, particularly for temperature projections. Widespread changes in ecosystem classes due to shifts in climate settings and/or land cover between 2015 and 2050 were projected, with both the magnitude and specific geography of projected change largely governed by the SSP scenario. For the three SSP scenarios (sustainable development, regional rivalry, and fossil-fueled development), geographic changes in climate setting (temperature, aridity, or both) and/or changes in vegetation/land cover are projected for 29 %, 36 %, and 39 % of Earth’s terrestrial surface, respectively. These changes occur in areas where 31 %, 36 %, and 41 % of the global population lives. Projected changes in ecosystem distributions related to temperature change are approximately an order of magnitude greater than for aridity change. By offering insight into potential ecosystem changes, this new resource is intended to facilitate conservation planning and priority setting aimed at improved conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2013

Shallow groundwater and soil chemistry response to 3 years of subsurface drip irrigation using coalbed-methane-produced water

Disposal of produced waters, pumped to the surface as part of coalbed methane (CBM) development, is a significant environmental issue in the Wyoming portion of the Powder River Basin, USA. High sodium adsorption ratios (SAR) of the waters could degrade agricultural land, especially if directly applied to the soil surface. One method of disposing of CBM water, while deriving beneficial use, is subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), where acidified CBM waters are applied to alfalfa fields year-round via tubing buried 0.92 m deep. Effects of the method were studied on an alluvial terrace with a relatively shallow depth to water table (∼3 m). Excess irrigation water caused the water table to rise, even temporarily reaching the depth of drip tubing. The rise corresponded to increased salinity in some monitoring wells. Three factors appeared to drive increased groundwater salinity: (1) CBM solutes, concentrated by evapotranspiration; (2) gypsum dissolution, apparently enhanced by cation exchange; and (3) dissolution of native Na–Mg–SO 4 salts more soluble than gypsum. Irrigation with high SAR (∼24) water has increased soil saturated paste SAR up to 15 near the drip tubing. Importantly though, little change in SAR has occurred at the surface.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey energy and wildlife research annual report for 2019

Access to affordable and reliable energy remains a critical need for people and the economy. To satisfy society’s demand for energy, the United States is expanding access to vast natural resources to produce electricity as well as petroleum and natural gas products. Development of our Nation’s energy resources, however, often conflicts directly with the equally vast fish and wildlife resources, which contribute billions of dollars to the economy through harvest, recreation, and services to humans and agriculture. The effects of energy development on living resources include fragmentation of populations, degradation or loss of habitat, and mortality of birds, bats, fish, and other wildlife interacting with energy generation facilities. Thus, an expanding energy infrastructure results in new requirements for land and ocean conversion for project siting and operational decisions to minimize risk to fish and wildlife resources. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists partner with more than 150 Federal, State, and local government agencies; Tribal nations; academic institutions; and nongovernmental organizations to deliver timely and relevant information on pressing resource management issues. This report summarizes ongoing USGS research projects and publications related to the impacts of energy development on fish and wildlife resources, tools to assess those impacts, and solutions to avoid or minimize risk. This information helps decision makers balance development with stewardship of the Nation’s fish and wildlife heritage.

Circular↗

USGS2007

Land-Cover Change in the Southern Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, 1940-2002

The Lake Tahoe basin has been subject to significant landscape-altering human activity since the mid-1850s; in particular, widespread timber harvest from the 1850s to 1920s and urban development from the 1950s to the present. The consequences of changes such as impacted water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard resulting from modern activity have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The goal of this project is to map, quantify, and describe the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin for the period from 1940 to 2002 in an effort to establish an understanding of regional landscape change. This map shows areas of land-use/land-cover change in a 279-km2 portion of the Lake Tahoe basin identified using change-detection analysis of multitemporal land-use/land-cover datasets for four dates (1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002), which yielded three periods for analysis. Land use/land cover was mapped using manual (visual) interpretation techniques in a geographic information system (GIS) from multiple imagery sources: black-and-white digital orthophotos for 1940 and 1969, natural-color digital orthophotos for 1987, and IKONOS multispectral satellite imagery for 2002. The landscape was classified using a 0.4-hectare (1-acre) minimum mapping unit and a hierarchical classification system. Impervious-surface data was derived directly from the 2002 IKONOS imagery on a per-pixel basis using digital image processing and GIS data integration.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2000

Development of a stream habitat index for use with an Index of Biotic Integrity in the St. Croix River Basin, Minnesota

More than 70 streams in the St. Croix River Basin in Minnesota were sampled for fish community composition and physical habitat during 1996–98. A habitat index was developed based on measurements, field observations, and land use. The objective was to develope a habitat index for use to evaluate water quality and the effects of nonpoint-source effects not associated with habitat degradation. Core habitat variables were determined with a concurrence analysis using principal components of two subsets of sites with pristine or least affected habitat. Although core habitat variables differed slightly between data sets, sufficient similarities allowed development of an index. The index (the sum of pluses or minuses dependent on the variable’s correlation to biotic integrity), composed of 12 core habitat variables in 5 classification groups (hydrology, geomorphology, substrate, instream habitat, and riparian/land use), was able to distinguish sites with low Index of Biotic Integrity scores not related to habitat degradation.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

PLoS ONE↗