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Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Nest site selection by greater sage-grouse in Mono County, California

Loss of nesting habitat is believed to be a factor in the decline of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) throughout its range. Few data are available for sage-grouse in Mono County, California, USA, in the most southwestern portion of the species' range. We studied habitat selection of nesting sage-grouse in Mono County, California, from 2003 to 2005 by capturing and radiotracking females to identify nesting locations. We sampled vegetation at nest sites and randomly selected sites within 200 m of nests and within each of 5 subareas within Mono County. Nest sites were characterized by 42.4 ± 1.3% ( x ¯ ± SE) shrub canopy cover, 10.5 ± 1.0 cm residual grass height, and 2.7 ± 1.0% residual grass cover. Shrub cover was the only variable found to differentiate nest sites from randomly selected sites. Unlike some other studies, we did not find understory vegetation to be important for selecting nest sites. Mean shrub cover was 38.7 ± 1.5% at random sites within 200 m of nests and 33.6 ± 1.6% at random sites at the approximate scale of home ranges, indicating that nesting females selected nesting areas that contained denser shrubs than their home range, and nest sites that contained greater shrub cover than the vicinity immediately surrounding nests. Our results suggest that managers should consider managing for greater shrub cover in Mono County than what is currently called for in other parts of sage-grouse range and that management for sage-grouse habitat may need to be tied more closely to local conditions.

California

Precision and relative effectiveness of a purse seine for sampling age-0 river herring in lakes

Stock assessments for anadromous river herring, collectively Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis , lack adequate demographic information, particularly with respect to early life stages. Although sampling adult river herring is increasingly common throughout their range, currently no standardized, field‐based, analytical methods exist for estimating juvenile abundance in freshwater lakes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the relative effectiveness and sampling precision of a purse seine for estimating densities of age‐0 river herring in freshwater lakes. We used a purse seine to sample age‐0 river herring in June–September 2015 and June–July 2016 in 16 coastal freshwater lakes in the northeastern USA. Sampling effort varied from two seine hauls to more than 50 seine hauls per lake. Catch rates were highest in June and July, and sampling precision was maximized in July. Sampling at night (versus day) in open water (versus littoral areas) was most effective for capturing newly hatched larvae and juveniles up to ca. 100 mm TL. Bootstrap simulation results indicated that sampling precision of CPUE estimates increased with sampling effort, and there was a clear threshold beyond which increased effort resulted in negligible increases in precision. The effort required to produce precise CPUE estimates, as determined by the CV, was dependent on lake size; river herring densities could be estimated with up to 10 purse‐seine hauls (one‐two nights) in a small lake (<50 ha) and 15–20 hauls (two‐three nights) in a large lake (>50 ha). Fish collection techniques using a purse seine as described in this paper are likely to be effective for estimating recruit abundance of river herring in freshwater lakes across their range.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Deployment of paired pushnets from jet-propelled kayaks to sample ichthyoplankton

Accessing and effectively sampling the off-channel habitats that are considered crucial for early life stages of freshwater fishes constitute a difficult challenge when common ichthyoplankton survey methods, such as push nets, are used. We describe a new method of deploying push nets from jet-propelled kayaks to enable the sampling of previously inaccessible off-channel habitats. The described rig is also functional in more open and accessible habitats, such as the main channel of rivers or reservoirs. Although further evaluation is necessary to ensure that results are comparable across studies, the described push-net system offers a statistically rigorous methodology that generates replicate samples from a wide range of freshwater habitats that were previously inaccessible to this gear type.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Denning chronology and design of effective bear management units

Reports on the effectiveness of using late fall hunting seasons to reduce the proportion of female black bears (Ursus americanus) in the harvest are limited, and the geographic scale over which the technique functions as intended has not been examined. During 1992-2000, we radio-equipped black bears in New Mexico, USA, obtained estimates of 175 den entry and 137 den emergence dates, and used New Mexico Department of Game and Fish harvest data (1985-2000) to test for differences in proportion of females in the harvest relative to denning chronology. Bears in northern New Mexico entered dens earlier and emerged later than bears in southern New Mexico (P ??? 0.001). In northern New Mexico bears displayed the typical pattern of earlier entry and later emergence by reproductive females, proportion of females in the harvest varied over time as expected, and late fall seasons were effective (P ??? 0.10). In contrast, denning chronology did not differ by sex in southern New Mexico, proportion of females in the harvest did not change over time, and late fall seasons were not effective (P ??? 0.18). Manipulation of hunting season dates to influence female mortality can be an effective tool, however our study provides an example of an area where denning chronology did not differ by sex and late seasons were not effective. We also observed regional differences in timing of entrance and emergence, which suggest that scale of application may be key. In management jurisdictions that encompass ecologically distinct areas, cover a wide range of latitudes, or are mountainous, successful use of the technique may depend on knowledge of denning chronology at multiple locations and appropriate designation of hunting unit boundaries, season dates, and data analysis units.

Journal of Wildlife Management

White-tailed deer migration and its role in wolf predation

Seventeen white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were radio-tagged in winter yards and tracked for up to 17 months each (881 locations) from January 1973 through August 1974 in the central Superior National Forest of NE Minnesota following a drastic decline in deer numbers. Ten vyolves ( Canis lupus ) from 7 packs in the same area were radiotracked before and/or during the same period (703 locations). Deer had winter ranges averaging 26.4 ha. Spring migration took place from 26 March to 23 April and was related to loss of snow cover. Deer generally migrated ENE in straight-line distances of 10.0 to 38.0 km to summer ranges. Two fawns did not migrate. Arrival on summer ranges was between 19 April and 18 May, and summer ranges varied from 48.1 to 410.4 ha. Migration back to the same winter yards took place in early December, coincident with snow accumulation and low temperatures. Social grouping appeared strongest during migration and winter yarding. Survival of the radio-tagged deer was studied through 1 May 1975. Four deer were killed by wolves, one was poached, and one drowned. Mean age of the captured deer was 5.4 years and estimated minimum survival after capture was 2.6 years, giving an estimated total minimum survival of 8.0 years. This unusually high survival rate appeared to be related to the fact that both winter and summer ranges of these deer were situated along wolf-pack territory edges rather than in centers. In addition, most summer ranges of the radio-tagged deer were along major waterways where the deer could escape wolves.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Fall and winter habitat use and movement by Columbia River redband trout in a small stream in Montana

We used radiotelemetry to quantify the movements and habitat use of resident adult Columbia River redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri (hereafter, redband trout) from October to December 1997 in South Fork Callahan Creek, a third‐order tributary to Callahan Creek in the Kootenai River drainage in northwestern Montana. All redband trout ( N = 23) were consistently relocated in a stream reach with moderate gradient (2.3%) near the site of original capture. Some fish ( N = 13) displayed sedentary behavior, whereas others were mobile ( N = 10). The mean total distance moved during the study for all fish combined was 64 m (SD = 105 m; range, 0–362 m), and the mean home range from October through December was 67 m (SD = 99 m; range, 5–377 m). Thirteen redband trout made short upstream and downstream movements (mean total movement = 134 m; range, 8–362 m) that were related to habitat use. Mobile fish commonly migrated to complex pools that spanned the entire channel width (primary pools). Eight of 10 fish that did not change habitat location occupied primary pools, whereas the remaining 2 fish occupied lateral pools. Fish commonly overwintered in primary pools dominated by cobble and boulder substrates that contained large woody debris. As water temperatures decreased from 3.2–6.3°C in October to 0–3.8°C in November and December, we found a 29% average increase (46–75%) in the proportional use of primary pool habitats. The lack of extensive movement and small home ranges indicate that adult redband trout found suitable overwintering habitat in deep pools with extensive amounts of cover within a third‐order mountain stream. Resource managers who wish to protect overwintering habitat features preferred by redband trout throughout their limited range in streams affected by land management practices could apply strategies that protect and enhance pool habitat and stream complexity.

Montana

Effects of water hardness on size and hatching success of silver carp eggs

Eggs of silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix absorb water after release from the female, causing them to become turgid and to increase substantially in size. The volume of water that diffuses within an egg is most likely determined by (1) the difference in ionic concentration between the egg and the water that surrounds it and (2) the elasticity of the egg membrane. Prior observations suggest that silver carp eggs may swell and burst in soft waters. If water hardness affects silver carp reproductive success in nonnative ecosystems, this abiotic factor could limit silver carp distribution or abundance. In this study, we tested the effect of water hardness on silver carp egg enlargement and hatching success. Groups of newly fertilized silver carp eggs were placed in water at one of five nominal water hardness levels (50, 100, 150, 200, or 250 mg/L as CaCO 3 ) for 1 h to harden (absorb water after fertilization). Egg groups were then placed in separate incubation vessels housed in two recirculation systems that were supplied with either soft (50 mg/L as CaCO 3 ) or hard (250 mg/L as CaCO 3 ) water to evaluate hatching success. Tests were terminated within 24 h after viable eggs had hatched. Eggs that were initially placed in 50-mg/L water to harden were larger (i.e., swelled more) and had a greater probability of hatch than eggs hardened in other water hardness levels. Unlike the effect of water hardness during egg hardening, the water hardness during incubation appeared to have no effect on egg hatching success. Our research suggests that water hardness may not be a limiting factor in the reproduction, recruitment, and range expansion of silver carp in North America.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Evaluation of the landscape surrounding northern bobwhite nest sites: A multiscale analysis

Implementation of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) altered the interspersion and abundance of patches of different land-cover types in landscapes of the southeastern United States. Because northern bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ) are experiencing significant population declines throughout most of their range, including the Southeast, it is critical to understand the impacts of landscape-scale changes in habitat on their reproductive rates. Our objective was to identify components of landscape structure important in predicting nest site selection by bobwhites at different spatial scales in the Upper Coastal Plain of Georgia. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial analysis software to calculate metrics of landscape structure near bobwhite nest sites. Logistic regression was used to model the relationship of nest sites to structure within the surrounding landscape at 4 spatial scales. We found that patch density and open-canopy planted pine were consistently important predictor variables at multiple scales, and other variables were important at various scales. The density of different patch types could be increased by thinning rows of pines in large monotypic stands of closed-canopy planted pine stands. Thinning and creating openings in CRP pine plantations should provide increased nesting opportunities for bobwhites. We interpret the support for other variables in our analysis as an indication that various patch configuration lead to different combinations of landscape structure that provide an acceptable range of habitat conditions for bobwhites.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Effects of feeding and fasting on wolf blood and urine characteristics

Feeding and fasting trials were conducted with 2 groups (A and B) of 4 gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) each during January 1980. The groups were fed for 9 days and fasted for 10 days in a cross-over design. Blood and urine samples and weight data were collected every 2-3 days during each trial. Hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, red blood cell (RBC) counts, and hematocrits (HCT) were elevated in both groups during fasting. White blood cell (WBC) counts, serum urea nitrogen (SUN), triiodothyronine (T3), and insulin concentrations decreased during fasting in Groups A and B. Mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), serum cholesterol, triglyceride, and iron (Fe) concentrations were diminished in fasted Group A wolves compared to fed Group B. Creatine phosphokinase (CPK) concentrations were elevated in fed Group A wolves. Serum creatinine (C) concentrations were reduced in both groups during feeding. Urinary urea: creatinine (U:C), potassium:creatine (K:C), and sodium:creatinine (Na:C, pooled Group A and B data) ratios decreased in fasted wolves. Differences were not found between fed and fasted wolves for mean corpuscular volume (MCV), serum cortisol, glucose, calcium (Ca), bilirubin, serum glutamate-oxaloacetate transaminase (SGOT), serum glutamate-pyruvate transaminase (SGOT), serum glutamate-pyruvate transaminase (SGPT), alkaline phosphatase, and luteinizing hormone (LH) concentrations, total iron binding capacity (TIBC), and urinary calcium: creatine (Ca:C) ratios. Analysis of multiple blood or urine samples collected from free-ranging wolves would be useful in enabling researches and managers to identify the nutritional status and general health of wolves over time.

Minnesota

Waterfowl exposure to lead and steel shot on selected hunting areas

Gizzards and wingbones from immature mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), pintails ( Anas acuta ), black ducks ( A. rubripes ), and Canada geese ( Branta canadensis ) were collected from 12 national and stat hunting are.as during the hunting season of 1974-75. The gizzards were examined for the occurrence of lead and steel shot and the wingbones were analyzed for lead residues. Incidence of lead shot in gizzards ranged from 1.3 percent in mallards from Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge to 29 percent in pintails from Sauvie Island Wildlife Management Area. Lead in wingbones ranged from trace residues (<0.5 ppm) to 345 ppm. The incidence of steel shot in gizzards surpassed lead shot on some refuges that have had mandatory steel shot programs. There was a significant correlation between frequency of lead shot in gizzards and lead residues in wingbones.

Journal of Wildlife Management

American woodcock migratory connectivity as indicated by hydrogen isotopes

To identify factors contributing to the long-term decline of American woodcock, a holistic understanding of range-wide population connectivity throughout the annual cycle is needed. We used band recovery data and isotopic composition of primary (P1) and secondary (S13) feathers to estimate population sources and connectivity among natal, early fall, and winter ranges of hunter-harvested juvenile American woodcock. We used P1 feathers from known-origin pre-fledged woodcock ( n &thinsp;=&thinsp;43) to create a hydrogen &delta; 2 H f isoscape by regressing &delta; 2 H f against expected growing-season precipitation ( &delta; 2 H p ). Modeled &delta; 2 H p values explained 79% of the variance in P1 &delta; 2 H f values, indicating good model fit for estimating woodcock natal origins. However, a poor relationship ( r 2 &thinsp;=&thinsp;0.23) between known-origin, S13 &delta; 2 H f values, and expected &delta; 2 H p values precluded assignment of early fall origins. We applied the &delta; 2 H f isoscape to assign natal origins using P1 feathers from 494 hunter-harvested juvenile woodcock in the United States and Canada during 2010&ndash;2011 and 2011&ndash;2012 hunting seasons. Overall, 64% of all woodcock origins were assigned to the northernmost (>44&deg;N) portion of both the Central and Eastern Management Regions. In the Eastern Region, assignments were more uniformly distributed along the Atlantic coast, whereas in the Central Region, most woodcock were assigned to origins within and north of the Great Lakes region. We compared our origin assignments to spatial coverage of the annual American woodcock Singing Ground Survey (SGS) and evaluated whether the survey effectively encompasses the entire breeding range. When we removed the inadequately surveyed Softwood shield Bird Conservation Region (BCR) from the northern portion of the SGS area, only 48% of juvenile woodcock originated in areas currently surveyed by the SGS. Of the individuals assigned to the northernmost portions of the breeding range, several were harvested in the southern extent of the wintering range. Based upon this latitudinal winter stratification, we examined whether woodcock employed a leapfrog migration strategy. Using &delta; 2 H f values and band-recovery data, we found some support for this migration strategy hypothesis but not as a singular explanation. The large harvest derivation of individuals from the northernmost portions of the breeding range, and the difference in breeding distributions within each Management Region should be considered in future range-wide conservation and harvest management planning for American woodcock.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Using integrated step-selection analyses to map high-risk electrocution areas for a highly mobile species

Knowledge of animal-movement patterns is a crucial component in identifying areas with high potential for human–wildlife conflict and in prioritizing associated management actions. Electrical energy infrastructure is a major source of mortality for animals worldwide, with millions of birds colliding with or being electrocuted by power lines and power-pole infrastructure each year. Movement, habitat use, and the spatial distribution of electrocution risk can vary with age, but studies of younger age classes are often hampered because these groups are difficult to observe and lack well-defined home ranges. To identify movement patterns and high-use areas of bald eagles in Arizona, USA, we analyzed global positioning system (GPS) telemetry data collected from 13 immature bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) across Arizona between 2017 and 2023. We built multi-scale, integrated step-selection functions that evaluated eagle responses to a suite of environmental covariates. We then used these models to simulate eagle movement and predict habitat use within and surrounding Maricopa County, which contains both the Phoenix Metropolitan Area and the plurality of bald eagle breeding areas in Arizona. We provide a use case for how these simulated movements could be used by resource managers to identify high-risk areas for electrocution. Eagles avoided urban areas and selected steeper slopes, more pronounced ridges, and areas with greater water and wetland land cover. Predicted habitat use by bald eagles was greatest near waterbodies and along ridges and steep slopes, and indicated where power infrastructure may pose greater electrocution risk. We show how integrated step-selection analyses and movement path simulation may be used for subadult animals lacking stable home ranges to predict high-use areas and identify locations with greater potential for negative human–wildlife interactions.

Arizona

Factors associated with survival, recovery, and movements in the western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks

The mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ) is nonmigratory and a priority species for regional conservation and management because of its limited range and declining population trajectory in the western Gulf Coast (WGC) of Louisiana and Texas, USA. We developed multistate dead-recovery models for banding and recovery data (1997–2020) to evaluate potential drivers of survival, recovery, and post-summer movements for the WGC population of mottled ducks in Louisiana and Texas. Annual survival was most strongly associated with sex and year, with females having lower survival ( ± = 0.544 ± 0.114) than males (0.619 ± 0.062). Of the 32 environmental covariates tested, fall precipitation was the factor most strongly associated with survival. Conditional recovery probability (i.e., given mortality, the probability a bird had been shot by a hunter, retrieved, and had their band number reported) varied by sex, age, geographic state, and year, with juvenile males generally having highest conditional recovery (0.303 ± 0.072), followed by juvenile females (0.201 ± 0.100), adult males (0.156 ± 0.038), and adult females (0.095 ± 0.057). Estimates of harvest probabilities followed similar patterns as conditional recovery. Models containing effects of harvest regulations on conditional recovery were not competitive compared to models with general year effects; however, post hoc analyses suggested conditional recovery and harvest probabilities for adult and juvenile females decreased with the daily bag limit reduction in Louisiana and, for juvenile females, implementation of the 5-day closure regulation in Texas. Post-summer movement was substantially higher in the direction of Texas to Louisiana, decreased with distance to the Louisiana–Texas border, was higher for males than females, and varied with winter precipitation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the factors influencing demographic performance, harvest, and movement between states with differing harvest regulations and environmental pressures, which is important for mottled duck conservation planning. Wildlife managers can consider expanding banding effort throughout the full range of the WGC population and collecting and reporting live-recapture data to allow for stronger population-level inferences and increased power to detect differences in important demographic parameters at more refined spatial scales.

Louisiana, Texas

Linking age and social status of cooperative breeders to vulnerability throughout the harvest season

Individual behaviors are influenced by environmental, genetic, and demographic factors. Some animals choose to live in groups and cooperatively breed, and their behaviors can change depending on dynamic factors such as group size and composition that affect group persistence. In Idaho, USA, gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) are harvested annually, providing an opportunity to investigate the effects of harvest and seasonal behaviors on a population of cooperative breeders. These annual hunting and trapping seasons overlap with the dispersal and breeding periods for wolves and we do not know how harvest affects the vulnerability of different sex and age classes during these important biological periods. We applied 9 years (2009–2018) of genetic, age, and harvest data from harvested wolves to investigate how behaviors (dispersal and breeding) and biological drivers might influence the vulnerability of wolves to harvest. We created pedigrees from genotypes of non-invasively collected scats to estimate the expected proportion of the wolf population composed of 3 different age classes (pup, yearling, and sexually mature or ≥2 years old) and compared them to the observed number of each age class harvested during biologically significant periods (i.e., dispersal and breeding). We found that pups were more vulnerable to harvest in December when wolf harvest transitioned largely to trapping (accounts for 66% of harvest), and found evidence that adults were more vulnerable to harvest during their breeding season in January and February. In contrast, we found no difference in the expected versus observed number of wolves ≥2 years old in the harvest during peak dispersal season (December), or in the expected versus observed number of yearlings in the harvest during September and October when pups are mobile and groups of wolves abandon the use of pup-rearing sites. Some age classes were disproportionally harvested during certain periods for specific years, but this was not consistent across all years, suggesting there is more to learn about the vulnerability of different age classes to harvest. We found harvest can disproportionally affect some demographic classes of individuals depending on year, biological period, and harvest type. With wolves continuing to recolonize historical ranges, our approach can benefit managers and future studies with the goal of identifying how interannual harvest affects groups of wolves.

Idaho

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research