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Results for “Journal of Conservation Planning”

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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Population genetics of Gunnison sage-grouse: Implications for management

The newly described Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ) is a species of concern for management because of marked declines in distribution and abundance due to the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. This has caused remaining populations to be unusually small and isolated. We utilized mitochondrial DNA sequence data and data from 8 nuclear microsatellites to assess the extent of population subdivision among Gunnison sage-grouse populations in southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah, USA. We found a high degree of population structure and low amounts of gene flow among all pairs of populations except the geographically adjacent Gunnison and Curecanti populations. Population structure for Gunnison sage-grouse was significantly higher than has been reported for greater sage-grouse ( C. urophasianus ). Further, we documented low levels of genetic diversity in some populations (particularly Dove Creek/Monticello and Piñon Mesa with an average of only 3.00 and 2.13 alleles per locus respectively) indicating that translocations from larger, more genetically diverse populations may be warranted. Bayesian analysis identified 3 potential migrants (involving San Miguel, Dove Creek/Monticello, Crawford, and Curecanti). Further, this analysis showed that 4 individuals from Cerro/Cimarron were more closely related to birds from San Miguel than to its geographically closer neighbors Gunnison and Curecanti. This suggests the Cerro/Cimarron area may act as a stepping stone for gene flow between San Miguel and Gunnison and that habitat restoration and protection in areas between these 2 basins should be a priority in an attempt to facilitate natural movement among these populations. Conservation plans should include monitoring and maintaining genetic diversity, preventing future habitat loss and fragmentation, enhancing existing habitat, and restoring converted sagebrush communities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1999

Picking up the pieces: Conserving remnant natural areas in the post-industrial landscape of the Calumet Region

The Calumet Region was shaped by geologic forces, succession, and interacting biomes converging on a unique natural landscape. Over the past 4500 years, a strand plain has formed to the north of a geologic area called Toleston Beach. Sequential and differential primary succession of dune and swale communities in this region allowed species from different biomes to interact freely. In the mid-nineteenth century, commerce and settlement drastically changed the area, and natural areas were fragmented, manipulated, and degraded by cultural intrusions and industrialization. Despite the near obliteration of dune and swale habitat, small fragments of natural land escaped destruction. These native fragments maintained some semblance of the landscape that once covered the region. Currently, these native fragments are threatened by the lingering intrusion of historic contamination and the continuing presence of industry and commerce. Restoration and conservation of these remnants will need to be a process of integrating biological diversity goals into the landscape of the industrialized region through planning and design. We outline here the natural history of the region, the philosophical rationale for conservation, and possible approaches for integrating and maintaining these valuable remnant resources and processes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan↗
USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (defined here as more than 10 years), science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in this region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2017, USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases), prepared an additional 7 products for publication, and presented 14 talks or posters at professional scientific meetings in addition to numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. In this report, we summarize the science themes that describe USGS science for the WLCI and highlight work completed in fiscal year 2017 for each science theme. We also provide information on how USGS science is being used by land managers to better achieve habitat conservation objectives.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on Gunnison sage-grouse published from January 2005 to September 2022

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Centrocercus minimus (Gunnison sage-grouse; hereafter GUSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation since the early 2000s. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed GUSG as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2014 because of declining populations and increasing habitat loss. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and Colorado Parks and Wildlife have sought to increase the conservation of this species by adapting management and recovery plans to reduce threats and increase population resiliency. GUSG are studied less than the closely related Centrocercus urophasianus (greater sage-grouse); however, research efforts have recently increased to understand the life history, genetics, and habitat suitability of this sagebrush-obligate species. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, data products, and formal technical reports (such as U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service General Technical Reports and U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports) on GUSG, published between January 2005 and September 2022. We first systematically searched three reference databases and three government databases using the following search phrases: “Gunnison sage-grouse” or “lesser sage-grouse” or “Gunnison grouse” or “Gunnison sage grouse” or “lesser sage grouse” or “ Centrocercus minimus .” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) products that did not have GUSG as a research focus or products that did not present new data or findings about GUSG. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, population estimates or targets, habitat, and management efforts) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included two initial internal colleague reviews of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 80 total products, of which 63 met our criteria for inclusion of which 53 were products that had not been summarized before. Across products summarized in the annotated bibliography, broad-scale habitat characteristics; population estimates or targets; behavior or demographics; and genetics were the most commonly addressed management topics. The bibliographies are available on the Science for Resource Managers tool ( https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers ) and are searchable by topic, location, and year, and the search tool includes links to each original publication. The studies compiled and summarized in this annotated bibliography may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore sagebrush landscapes and GUSG populations across the GUSG range.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100). Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries). The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries. Synthesis and applications . Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal development, there is not space for wetlands to move and adapt to sea level rise. Future‐focused landscape conservation plans that incorporate the protection of wetland migration corridors can increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems and simultaneously decrease the vulnerability of coastal human communities to the harmful effects of rising seas.

Gulf of Mexico coast↗
USGS2017

Indicator-driven conservation planning across terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine ecosystems of the south Atlantic, USA

Systematic conservation planning, a widely used approach to identify priority lands and waters, uses efficient, defensible, and transparent methods aimed at conserving biodiversity and ecological systems. Limited financial resources and competing land uses can be major impediments to conservation; therefore, participation of diverse stakeholders in the planning process is advantageous to help address broad-scale threats and challenges of the 21st century. Although a broad extent is needed to identify core areas and corridors for fish and wildlife populations, a fine-scale resolution is needed to manage for multiple, interconnected ecosystems. Here, we developed a conservation plan using a systematic approach to promote landscape-level conservation within the extent of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Our objective was to identify the highest-ranked 30% of lands and waters within the South Atlantic deemed necessary to conserve ecological and cultural integrity for the 10 primary ecosystems of the southeastern United States. These environments varied from terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine. The planning process was driven by indicators of ecosystem integrity at a 4-ha resolution. We used the program Zonation and 28 indicators to optimize the identification of lands and waters to meet the stated objective. A novel part of our study was the prioritization of multiple ecosystems, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. The evaluation of indicator representation within prioritizations was a useful method to show where improvements could be made; some indicators dictated hotspots, some had a limited extent and were well represented, and others had a limited effect. Overall, we demonstrate that a broad-scale (408,276 km 2 of terrestrial and 411,239 km 2 of marine environments) conservation plan can be realized at a fine-scale resolution, which will allow implementation of the regional plan at a local level relevant to decision making.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2020

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Improved ASCE/SEI 7-10 ground-motion scaling procedure for nonlinear analysis of buildings

An improved ASCE/SEI 7–10 ground-motion scaling procedure for three-dimensional (3D) response history analysis (RHA) of buildings is presented. In this procedure, different scale factors for two horizontal components of the ground motion are used, and their spectral shapes are considered in ground-motion selection stage. The accuracy of the improved procedure is evaluated by utilizing 3D models of nine asymmetric-plan buildings. It is demonstrated that the improved procedure provides on average 15% conservative estimates of engineering demand parameters while the original version underestimates them on average 29%. Thus, the improved ground-motion selection and scaling procedure is found to be appropriate for nonlinear RHAs of multi-story plan-asymmetric buildings.

Journal of Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2023

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this – the ‘Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife’. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2022

Using automated telemetry to identify population connectivity and migration phenology of Snowy Plovers breeding in the Southern Great Plains

Within-breeding season movements have not been quantified for Snowy Plovers ( Charadrius nivosus ) breeding on the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where suitable breeding habitat can range from less than 10 km to more than 600 km apart. This mosaic distribution of discrete patches of breeding habitat, combined with weather stochasticity and low densities of Snowy Plovers in Texas and New Mexico, increases the risk of local and regional extirpation. Further, little is known about SGP Snowy Plover migration phenology or winter habitat. We used the Motus Wildlife Tracking System to examine population connectivity, migration phenology, and winter habitat locations of adult Snowy Plovers in the SGP. Movements of Snowy Plovers during the 2017 and 2018 breeding seasons suggest little to no connectivity between the Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge population in Oklahoma and populations in Texas and New Mexico. However, several Snowy Plovers in Texas moved to a lake formed by freshwater springs that may have provided higher-quality breeding and foraging habitat. Migrating primarily at night, we found that Snowy Plovers from a breeding area in Oklahoma made migratory movements to Texas and the Louisiana Gulf Coast. These data may be important to long-term conservation and planning efforts relative to understanding regional persistence and connectivity among breeding populations of Snowy Plovers in the SGP. Our results also highlight the need for future studies of wintering habitats used by SGP Snowy Plovers.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS2012

Waste rice seed in conventional and stripper-head harvested fields in California: Implications for wintering waterfowl

Waste rice seed is an important food for wintering waterfowl and current estimates of its availability are needed to determine the carrying capacity of rice fields and guide habitat conservation. We used a line-intercept method to estimate mass-density of rice seed remaining after harvest during 2010 in the Sacramento Valley (SACV) of California and compared results with estimates from previous studies in the SACV and Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Posterior mean (95% credible interval) estimates of total waste rice seed mass-density for the SACV in 2010 were 388 (336–449) kg/ha in conventionally harvested fields and 245 (198–307) kg/ha in stripper-head harvested fields; the 2010 mass-density is nearly identical to the mid-1980s estimate for conventionally harvested fields but 36% lower than the mid-1990s estimate for stripped fields. About 18% of SACV fields were stripper-head harvested in 2010 vs. 9–15% in the mid-1990s and 0% in the mid-1980s; but due to a 50% increase in planted rice area, total mass of waste rice seed in SACV remaining after harvest in 2010 was 43% greater than in the mid-1980s. However, total mass of seed-eating waterfowl also increased 82%, and the ratio of waste rice seed to seed-eating waterfowl mass was 21% smaller in 2010 than in the mid-1980s. Mass-densities of waste rice remaining after harvest in SACV fields are within the range reported for MAV fields. However, because there is a lag between harvest and waterfowl use in the MAV but not in the SACV, seed loss is greater in the MAV and estimated waste seed mass-density available to wintering waterfowl in SACV fields is about 5–30 times recent MAV estimates. Waste rice seed remains an abundant food source for waterfowl wintering in the SACV, but increased use of stripper-head harvesters would reduce this food. To provide accurate data on carrying capacities of rice fields necessary for conservation planning, trends in planted rice area, harvest method, and postharvest field treatment should be tracked and impacts of postharvest field treatment and other farming practices on waste rice seed availability should be investigated.

California↗
USGS2012

A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with the global conservation community, has recognized that the conservation challenges of the 21st century far exceed the responsibilities and footprint of any individual agency or program. The ecological effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors do not recognize geopolitical boundaries and, as such, demand a national geographic framework to provide structure for cross-jurisdictional and landscape-scale conservation strategies. In 2009, a new map of ecologically based conservation regions in which to organize capacity and implement strategic habitat conservation was developed using rapid prototyping and expert elicitation by an interagency team of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Geological Survey scientists and conservation professionals. Incorporating Bird Conservation Regions, Freshwater Ecoregions, and U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit codes, the new geographic framework provides a spatial template for building conservation capacity and focusing biological planning and conservation design efforts. The Department of Interior's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives are being organized in these new conservation regions as multi-stakeholder collaborations for improved conservation science and management.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2015

Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

California↗
USGS2020

FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes

Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fi sh and Cli mate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2014

Geospatial considerations for a multiorganizational, landscape-scale program

Geospatial data play an increasingly important role in natural resources management, conservation, and science-based projects. The management and effective use of spatial data becomes significantly more complex when the efforts involve a myriad of landscape-scale projects combined with a multiorganizational collaboration. There is sparse literature to guide users on this daunting subject; therefore, we present a framework of considerations for working with geospatial data that will provide direction to data stewards, scientists, collaborators, and managers for developing geospatial management plans. The concepts we present apply to a variety of geospatial programs or projects, which we describe as a “scalable framework” of processes for integrating geospatial efforts with management, science, and conservation initiatives. Our framework includes five tenets of geospatial data management: (1) the importance of investing in data management and standardization, (2) the scalability of content/efforts addressed in geospatial management plans, (3) the lifecycle of a geospatial effort, (4) a framework for the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) in a landscape-scale conservation or management program, and (5) the major geospatial considerations prior to data acquisition. We conclude with a discussion of future considerations and challenges.

Journal of Map & Geography Libraries↗
USGS2016

Regional patterns of total nitrogen concentrations in the National Rivers and Streams Assessment

Patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in streams sampled by the National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) were examined semiquantitatively to identify regional differences in stream N levels. The data were categorized and analyzed by watershed size classes to reveal patterns of the concentrations that are consistent with the spatial homogeneity in natural and anthropogenic characteristics associated with regional differences in N levels. Ecoregions and mapped information on human activities including agricultural practices were used to determine the resultant regions. Marked differences in N levels were found among the nine aggregations of ecoregions used to report the results of the NRSA. We identified distinct regional patterns of stream N concentrations within the reporting regions that are associated with the characteristics of specific Level III ecoregions, groups of Level III ecoregions, groups of Level IV ecoregions, certain geographic characteristics within ecoregions, and/or particular watershed size classes. We described each of these regions and illustrated their areal extent and median and range in N concentrations. Understanding the spatial variability of nutrient concentrations in flowing waters and the apparent contributions that human and nonhuman factors have on different sizes of streams and rivers is critical to the development of effective water quality assessment and management plans. This semi-quantitative analysis is also intended to identify areas within which more detailed quantitative work can be conducted to determine specific regional factors associated with variations in stream N concentrations.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗
USGS2025

Factors associated with survival, recovery, and movements in the western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks

The mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ) is nonmigratory and a priority species for regional conservation and management because of its limited range and declining population trajectory in the western Gulf Coast (WGC) of Louisiana and Texas, USA. We developed multistate dead-recovery models for banding and recovery data (1997–2020) to evaluate potential drivers of survival, recovery, and post-summer movements for the WGC population of mottled ducks in Louisiana and Texas. Annual survival was most strongly associated with sex and year, with females having lower survival ( ± = 0.544 ± 0.114) than males (0.619 ± 0.062). Of the 32 environmental covariates tested, fall precipitation was the factor most strongly associated with survival. Conditional recovery probability (i.e., given mortality, the probability a bird had been shot by a hunter, retrieved, and had their band number reported) varied by sex, age, geographic state, and year, with juvenile males generally having highest conditional recovery (0.303 ± 0.072), followed by juvenile females (0.201 ± 0.100), adult males (0.156 ± 0.038), and adult females (0.095 ± 0.057). Estimates of harvest probabilities followed similar patterns as conditional recovery. Models containing effects of harvest regulations on conditional recovery were not competitive compared to models with general year effects; however, post hoc analyses suggested conditional recovery and harvest probabilities for adult and juvenile females decreased with the daily bag limit reduction in Louisiana and, for juvenile females, implementation of the 5-day closure regulation in Texas. Post-summer movement was substantially higher in the direction of Texas to Louisiana, decreased with distance to the Louisiana–Texas border, was higher for males than females, and varied with winter precipitation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the factors influencing demographic performance, harvest, and movement between states with differing harvest regulations and environmental pressures, which is important for mottled duck conservation planning. Wildlife managers can consider expanding banding effort throughout the full range of the WGC population and collecting and reporting live-recapture data to allow for stronger population-level inferences and increased power to detect differences in important demographic parameters at more refined spatial scales.

Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2021

Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are frequently used to inform conservation and restoration efforts by identifying critical source areas (CSAs; alternatively 'hotspots'), defined as areas that export relatively greater quantities of nutrients and sediment. The CSAs can then be prioritized or ‘targeted’ for conservation and restoration to ensure efficient use of limited resources. However, CSA simulations from watershed-scale hydrologic models may be uncertain and it is critical that the extent and implications of this uncertainty be conveyed to stakeholders and decision makers. We used an ensemble of four independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models and a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model to simulate CSA locations for flow, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment within the ~17,000-km 2 Maumee River watershed at the HUC-12 scale. We then assessed uncertainty in CSA simulations determined as the variation in CSA locations across the models. Our application of an ensemble of models - differing with respect to inputs, structure, and parameterization - facilitated an improved accounting of CSA prediction uncertainty. We found that the models agreed on the location of a subset of CSAs, and that these locations may be targeted with relative confidence. However, models more often disagreed on CSA locations. On average, only 16%–46% of HUC-12 subwatersheds simulated as a CSA by one model were also simulated as a CSA by a different model. Our work shows that simulated CSA locations are highly uncertain and may vary substantially across models. Hence, while models may be useful in informing conservation and restoration planning, their application to identify CSA locations would benefit from comprehensive uncertainty analyses to avoid inefficient use of limited resources.

Ohio↗