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Results for “Journal of Applied Mechanics”

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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States’ first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500–1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5–4.5 mm/yr, or 2–3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because of capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to flow. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water in the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data, particularly fracture flow deep in the unsaturated zone. This paper presents the history of the evolution of conceptual models of hydrology and numerical models of unsaturated zone flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Kwicklis, E.M., Bodvarsson, G.S., Fabryka-Martin, J.M., 2001. Hydrology of Yucca Mountain. Reviews of Geophysics in press). This retrospective is the basis for recommendations for optimizing the efficiency with which a viable and robust conceptual model can be developed for a complex site.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2009

Faecal indicator bacteria enumeration in beach sand: A comparison study of extraction methods in medium to coarse sands

Aims: The absence of standardized methods for quantifying faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in sand hinders comparison of results across studies. The purpose of the study was to compare methods for extraction of faecal bacteria from sands and recommend a standardized extraction technique. Methods and Results: Twenty-two methods of extracting enterococci and Escherichia coli from sand were evaluated, including multiple permutations of hand shaking, mechanical shaking, blending, sonication, number of rinses, settling time, eluant-to-sand ratio, eluant composition, prefiltration and type of decantation. Tests were performed on sands from California, Florida and Lake Michigan. Most extraction parameters did not significantly affect bacterial enumeration. anova revealed significant effects of eluant composition and blending; with both sodium metaphosphate buffer and blending producing reduced counts. Conclusions: The simplest extraction method that produced the highest FIB recoveries consisted of 2 min of hand shaking in phosphate-buffered saline or deionized water, a 30-s settling time, one-rinse step and a 10 : 1 eluant volume to sand weight ratio. This result was consistent across the sand compositions tested in this study but could vary for other sand types. Significance and Impact of the Study: Method standardization will improve the understanding of how sands affect surface water quality. ?? 2009 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Journal of Applied Microbiology↗
USGS2019

Temperature mediates secondary dormancy in resting cysts of Pyrodinium bahamense (Dinophyceae)

High‐biomass blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense occur most summers in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA, posing a recurring threat to ecosystem health. Like many dinoflagellates, P. bahamense forms immobile resting cysts that can be deposited on the seafloor—creating a seed bank that can retain the organism within the ecosystem and initiate future blooms when cysts germinate. In this study, we examined changes in the dormancy status of cysts collected from Tampa Bay and applied lessons from plant ecology to explore dormancy controls. Pyrodinium bahamense cysts incubated immediately after field collection displayed a seasonal pattern in dormancy and germination that matched the pattern of cell abundance in the water column. Newly deposited (surface) cysts and older (buried) cysts exhibited similar germination patterns, suggesting that a common mechanism regulates dormancy expression in new and mature cysts. Extended cool‐ and warm‐temperature conditioning of field‐collected cysts altered the cycle of dormancy compared with that of cysts in nature, with the duration of cool temperature exposure being the best predictor of when cysts emerged from dormancy. Extended warm conditioning, on the other hand, elicited a return to dormancy, or secondary dormancy, in nondormant cysts. These results directly demonstrate environmental induction of secondary dormancy in dinoflagellates—a mechanism common and thoroughly documented in higher plants with seasonal growth cycles. Our findings support the hypothesis that a seasonal cycle in cyst germination drives P. bahamense bloom periodicity in Tampa Bay and point to environmentally induced secondary dormancy as an important regulatory factor of that cycle.

Florida↗
USGS2002

Groundwater contamination downstream of a contaminant penetration site. I. Extension-expansion of the contaminant plume

This study concerns the possible use of boundary layer (BL) approach for the analysis and evaluation of contaminant transport in groundwater due to contaminant penetration into the groundwater aquifer through a site of limited size. The contaminant penetration may occur through either the upper (surface) or lower (bedrock) boundary of the aquifer. Two general cases of contaminant penetration mechanisms are considered: (1) the contaminant is transferred through an interface between a contaminating and freshwater fluid phases, and (2) the contaminant arrives at groundwater by leakage and percolation. For the purpose of BL evaluation the contaminant plume is divided into three different sections: (1) the penetration section, (2) the extension-expansion section, and (3) the spearhead section. In each section a different BL method approach yields simple analytical expressions for the description of the contaminant plume migration and contaminant transport. Previous studies of the BL method can be directly applied to the evaluation of contaminant transport at the contaminant penetration section. The present study extends those studies and concerns the contaminant transport in the two other sections, which are located downstream of the penetration section. This study shows that the contaminant concentration profiles in sections 2 and 3 incorporate two BLs: (1) an inner BL adjacent to the aquifer bottom or surface boundary, and (2) an outer BL, which develops above or below the inner one. The method developed in the present study has been applied to practical issues concerning salinity penetration into groundwater in south central Kansas.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part↗
USGS2018

Impact of pore fluid chemistry on fine-grained sediment fabric and compressibility

Fines, defined here as grains or particles, less than 75 μm in diameter, exist nearly ubiquitously in natural sediment, even those classified as coarse. Macroscopic sediment properties, such as compressibility, which relates applied effective stress to the resulting sediment deformation, depend on the fabric of fines. Unlike coarse grains, fines have sizes and masses small enough to be more strongly influenced by electrical interparticle forces than by gravity. These electrical forces acting through pore fluids are influenced by pore fluid chemistry changes. Macroscopic property dependence on pore fluid chemistry must be accounted for in sediment studies involving subsurface flow and sediment stability analyses, as well as in engineered flow situations such as groundwater pollutant remediation, hydrocarbon migration, or other energy resource extraction applications. This study demonstrates how the liquid limit‐based electrical sensitivity index can be used to predict sediment compressibility changes due to pore fluid chemistry changes. Laboratory tests of electrical sensitivity, sedimentation, and compressibility illustrate mechanisms linking microscale and macroscale processes for selected pure, end‐member fines. A specific application considered here is methane extraction via depressurization of gas hydrate‐bearing sediment, which causes a dramatic pore water salinity drop concurrent with sediment being compressed by the imposed effective stress increase.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2003

Imaging the complexity of an active normal fault system: The 1997 Colfiorito (central Italy) case study

Six moderate magnitude earthquakes (5 < Mw < 6) ruptured normal fault segments of the southern sector of the North Apennine belt (central Italy) in the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake sequence. We study the progressive activation of adjacent and nearby parallel faults of this complex normal fault system using ???1650 earthquake locations obtained by applying a double-difference location method, using travel time picks and waveform cross-correlation measurements. The lateral extent of the fault segments range from 5 to 10 km and make up a broad, ???45 km long, NW trending fault system. The geometry of each segment is quite simple and consists of planar faults gently dipping toward SW with an average dip of 40??-45??. The fault planes are not listric but maintain a constant dip through the entire seismogenic volume, down to 8 km depth. We observe the activation of faults on the hanging wall and the absence of seismicity in the footwall of the structure. The observed fault segmentation appears to be due to the lateral heterogeneity of the upper crust: preexisting thrusts inherited from Neogene's compressional tectonic intersect the active normal faults and control their maximum length. The stress tensor obtained by inverting the six main shock focal mechanisms of the sequence is in agreement with the tectonic stress active in the inner chain of the Apennine, revealing a clear NE trending extension direction. Aftershock focal mechanisms show a consistent extensional kinematics, 70% of which are mechanically consistent with the main shock stress field.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California

Background Understanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US). Aims We propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate data to assess regional variation in causal mechanisms. Methods We analyzed fire statistics (1910–2021) alongside climate and weather data, stratifying the state by 10 ecoregions. Key results Northern forests had the strongest correlation with the proximate factor fuel aridity, ultimately due to climate. Fire rotation intervals exceeded 100 years, implicating woody fuel accumulation as an additional factor. Lightning ignitions occurred in decadal bursts, with dense strike events potentially overwhelming fire-fighting resources. Lower elevation/latitude foothill ecoregions experienced highest fire activity following wet winters and springs, implicating control by herbaceous fuel loads and a negative effect of global warming on future fires. Human ignitions dominate in these ecoregions, and population growth contributes to expansion of powerlines, a major ignition source. Conclusions While climate change may increase fire activity in forested ecoregions, its role is less pronounced in non-forested ecoregions, where human ignition sources are the dominant factor. Implications Different areas within ecoregions may require different management actions that reflect the specific proximate and ultimate factors at play.

California↗
USGS2008

Trends in abundance of collared lemmings near Cape Churchill, Manitoba, Canada

Regular, multiannual cycles observed in the population abundance of small mammals in many arctic and subarctic ecosystems have stimulated substantial research, particularly among population ecologists. Hypotheses of mechanisms generating regular cycles include predator-prey interactions, limitation of food resources, and migration or dispersal, as well as abiotic factors such as cyclic climatic variation and environmental stochasticity. In 2004 and 2005, we used indirect methods to estimate trends in population size of Richardson's collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx richardsoni) retrospectively, and evaluated the extent of synchrony between lemming populations at 2 coastal tundra study areas separated by approximately 60 km near Cape Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. We collected scars on willow plants (Salix) resulting from lemming feeding. Ages of scars ranged from 0 to 13 years at both study areas. Scar-age frequency appeared cyclic and we used nonlinear Poisson regression to model the observed scar-age frequency. Lemming populations cycled with 2.8-year periodicity and the phase of the cycle was synchronous between the 2 study areas. We suggest that our approach could be applied in multiple settings and may provide the most efficient way to gather data on small mammals across both space and time in a diversity of landscapes. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2021

An eddy-resolving numerical model to study turbulent flow, sediment and bed evolution using detached eddy simulation in a lateral separation zone at the field-scale

Turbulence-resolving simulations elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field-scale, coupling a viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative, non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars. tions elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field scale, coupling viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in massive erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars.

Arizona↗
USGS2012

W phase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes (1990-2010)

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. M w ≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the source rupture. To accelerate centroid moment tensor (CMT) determinations, we have developed a source inversion algorithm based on modelling of the W phase, a very long period phase (100–1000 s) arriving at the same time as the P wave. The purpose of this work is to finely tune and validate the algorithm for large-to-moderate-sized earthquakes using three components of W phase ground motion at teleseismic distances. To that end, the point source parameters of all M w ≥ 6.5 earthquakes that occurred between 1990 and 2010 (815 events) are determined using Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Global Seismographic Network broad-band stations and STS1 global virtual networks of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. For each event, a preliminary magnitude obtained from W phase amplitudes is used to estimate the initial moment rate function half duration and to define the corner frequencies of the passband filter that will be applied to the waveforms. Starting from these initial parameters, the seismic moment tensor is calculated using a preliminary location as a first approximation of the centroid. A full CMT inversion is then conducted for centroid timing and location determination. Comparisons with Harvard and Global CMT solutions highlight the robustness of W phase CMT solutions at teleseismic distances. The differences in M w rarely exceed 0.2 and the source mechanisms are very similar to one another. Difficulties arise when a target earthquake is shortly (e.g. within 10 hr) preceded by another large earthquake, which disturbs the waveforms of the target event. To deal with such difficult situations, we remove the perturbation caused by earlier disturbing events by subtracting the corresponding synthetics from the data. The CMT parameters for the disturbed event can then be retrieved using the residual seismograms. We also explore the feasibility of obtaining source parameters of smaller earthquakes in the range 6.0 ≤M w < 6.5. Results suggest that the W phase inversion can be implemented reliably for the majority of earthquakes of M w = 6 or larger.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2006

Bluff evolution along coastal drumlins: Boston Harbor Islands, Massachusetts

A series of partially drowned drumlins forms the backbone of the inner islands within Boston Harbor. The shoreline of these rounded glacial deposits is composed of actively retreating bluffs formed by continual wave attack. Comparisons of bluffs reveal variability in their height and lateral extent, as well as in the dominant mechanism causing their retreat. Two processes are responsible for bluff erosion and yield distinct bluff morphologies: (1) wave attack undercuts the bluff and causes episodic slumping, yielding planar bluff slopes, and (2) subaerial processes such as rainfall create irregular slopes characterized by rills and gullies. We propose a model of drumlin bluff evolution that is based on processes of erosion and physical characteristics such as bluff height, slope morphology, and the orientation of the bluff with respect to the long axis of the drumlin and its topographic crest. The four phases of drumlin bluff evolution consist of (1) initial formation of bluff, with retreat dominated by wave notching and slumping processes; (2) rill and gully development as bluff heights exceed 10 m and slumped sediment at bluff base inhibits wave attack; (3) return of wave notching and slumping as bluff heights decrease; and (4) final development of boulder retreat lag as last remnants of drumlin are eroded by wave action. These phases capture the important physical processes of drumlin evolution in Boston Harbor and could apply to other eroding coastal drumlin deposits.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2006

Source parameters of microearthquakes at Mount St Helens (USA)

We estimate the source parameters for a selection of microearthquakes that occurred at Mount St Helens in the period 1995–1998. Excluding the activity of 2004 September, this time period includes the most intense episode of earthquake activity since the last dome-building eruption in 1986 October. 200 seismograms were processed to obtain seismic moments, source radii, stress drops and average fault slip. The source parameters were determined from the spectral analysis of P waves, after correction for attenuation and site effects. In particular, P -wave quality ( Q p ) and site ( S ) factors have been previously calculated in the frequency ranges 2–7 Hz and 18–30 Hz. Because it was impossible to perform corrections for Q p and S over the whole spectrum we applied a new approach, based on the notion of ‘ holed spectrum ’, to estimate spectral parameters. The term ‘ holed spectrum ’ indicates a spectrum lacking corrected spectral amplitude values at certain frequencies. We carried out a statistical study to verify that dealing with the ‘ holed spectrum ’ does not lead to significant differences in the estimates of spectral parameters. We also investigated the dependence of spectral parameters (low-frequency level, corner frequency and high-frequency decay) on the bandwidth of spectral hole, and defined the threshold values for three different spectral models. Displacement ‘ holed spectra ’, corrected by attenuation and site response, are then used to determine spectral parameters in order to calculate seismic source parameters. Seismic moments range from 10 17 to 10 19 dyne-cm, source dimensions from 100 to 350 m, and average fault slip from 0.003 to 0.1 cm. Self-similarity seems to break down in that stress drops are very low (0.1–1 bars). We postulate that seismicity is associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism occurring in a highly heterogeneous material under a relatively low stress regime.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Identification of seismo-volcanic regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) via systematic tuning of an unsupervised classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes.

Whakaari, White Island↗
USGS1996

Morphological plasticity following species-specific recognition and competition in two perennial grasses

Morphological characteristics and biomass allocation of two perennial grasses, Pseudoroegneria spicata (Pursh) A. Löve ssp. spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass) and Agropyron desertorum (Fisch. ex Link) Schult. (crested wheatgrass), were compared under different competition and nutrient treatments. The competitive responses of two plants grown in containers under field conditions were assessed in monocultures and mixtures in two experiments using different scales of nutrient application. In the Small-Scale Experiment, a localized fertilization was applied in the rooting zone between two plants; in the Large-Scale Experiment the entire container was supplied with nutrients. Agropyron responded more vigorously to fertilization than did Pseudoroegneria , but based on the relative performance of Agropyron in monoculture and mixture, it was not superior to Pseudoroegneria in resource competition. Pseudoroegneria was apparently able to recognize neighboring plants as either conspecifics or individuals of the other species. The responses included changes in shoot architecture, root morphology, and allocation between roots and shoots. Agropyron generally did not exhibit such morphological flexibility. In field plot plantings of 4-yr-old tussocks similar shoot differences were seen in Pseudoroegneria. There was, however, no indication of superior resource competition for Agropyron. Thus, any early advantage of Agropyron in vigorous growth of young plants in response to nutrients was apparently lost by the time the plants had reached this stage of development. Morphological and allocation flexibility of Pseudoroegneria may have compensated for slower, less vigorous growth. If species-specific recognition and morphological plasticity are common in nature, this complicates our attempts to understand mechanisms of competition.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2013

Seismicity around Parkfield correlates with static shear stress changes following the 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes, but the physical mechanism of the triggering is currently debated. Most studies of earthquake triggering rely on earthquakes listed in catalogs, which are known to be incomplete around the origin times of large earthquakes and therefore missing potentially triggered events. Here we apply a waveform matched-filter technique to systematically detect earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault from 46 days before to 31 days after the nearby 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake. After removing all possible false detections, we identify ~8 times more earthquakes than in the Northern California Seismic Network catalog. The newly identified events along the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault show a statistically significant decrease following the San Simeon main shock, which correlates well with the negative static stress changes (i.e., stress shadow) cast by the main shock. In comparison, the seismicity rate around Parkfield increased moderately where the static stress changes are positive. The seismicity rate changes correlate well with the static shear stress changes induced by the San Simeon main shock, suggesting a low friction in the seismogenic zone along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault.

California↗
USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗