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Understanding conservation decisions of agriculture producers

Most land in the United States (US) is privately owned and used for agriculture. To address the effect of agriculture on wildlife, conservation professionals and organizations need to understand the land use decisions made by farmers and ranchers. We developed a tool for categorizing farmers and ranchers by their conservation land use values (LUVs) to understand how those values affect their land use motivations and resultant decisions. We defined land as the whole natural environment including soil, water, plants, fish, and wildlife. We used principal axis factoring and reliability analysis to identify statements representing human-centered values and nature-centered values of farmers and ranchers. We tested the validity of the combined statements with a survey of South Dakota’s private landowners (N = 4,000, [Jan through May 2016]) resulting in the LUV scale. Crossing the average scores on the human-centered and nature-centered statements identified 4 LUV types: humans first (20%), nature first (29%), interconnected (29%), and disconnected (22%). Analysis of variance and chi-square tests showed that, compared to the humans first and disconnected LUV types, the nature first and interconnected LUV types reported significantly greater importance of the following: most categories of types of wildlife in their land use decisions; conservation-related motivations for participating in a United States Farm Bill Conservation Program; conservation-related motivations for land use decisions; and participation in conservation-related behaviors. Conservation professionals and organizations may use the LUV scale to better understand landowners’ land use decisions to evaluate and inform conservation policy, programs, messaging, and improve conservation outcomes.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Olympic Fisher Reintroduction Project: Progress report 2008-2011

This progress report summarizes the final year of activities of Phase I of the Olympic fisher restoration project. The intent of the Olympic fisher reintroduction project is to reestablish a self-sustaining population of fishers on the Olympic Peninsula. To achieve this goal, the Olympic fisher reintroduction project released 90 fishers within Olympic National Park from 2008 to 2010. The reintroduction of fishers to the Olympic Peninsula was designed as an adaptive management project, including the monitoring of released fishers as a means to (1) evaluate reintroduction success, (2) investigate key biological and ecological traits of fishers, and (3) inform future reintroduction, monitoring, and research efforts. This report summarizes reintroduction activities and preliminary research and monitoring results completed through December 2011. The report is non-interpretational in nature. Although we report the status of movement, survival, and home range components of the research, we have not completed final analyses and interpretation of research results. Much of the data collected during the monitoring and research project will be analyzed and interpreted in the doctoral dissertation being developed by Jeff Lewis; the completion of this dissertation is anticipated prior to April 2013. We anticipate that this work, and analyses of other data collected during the project, will result in several peer-reviewed scientific publications in ecological and conservation journals, which collectively will comprise the final reporting of work summarized here. These publications will include papers addressing post-release movements, survival, resource selection, food habits, and age determination of fishers.

Report

A review of coastal management approaches to support the integration of ecological and human community planning for climate change

The resilience of socio-ecological systems to sea level rise, storms and flooding can be enhanced when coastal habitats are used as natural infrastructure. Grey infrastructure has long been used for coastal flood protection but can lead to unintended negative impacts. Natural infrastructure often provides similar services as well as added benefits that support short- and long-term biological, cultural, social, and economic goals. While natural infrastructure is becoming more widespread in practice, it often represents a relatively small fraction within portfolios of coastal risk-reducing strategies compared to more traditional grey infrastructure. This study provides a comprehensive review of how natural infrastructure is being used along the United States Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean coasts related to four habitats – tidal marshes, beaches and barrier islands, mangroves, and biogenic reefs. We compare information on the benefits, opportunities and challenges of implementing natural, grey and hybrid infrastructure in the coastal zone. In addition, we present a suite of actions to increase information and reduce uncertainty so that coastal mangers and planners are aware of the full suite of options for restoration, conservation and planning that maximize ecosystem services over short- and long-term planning horizons.

Journal of Coastal Conservation

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c ) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios.

Colorado

Shorebird roost-site selection at two temporal scales: Is human disturbance a factor?

1. Roost-site selection in shorebirds is governed by ambient factors, including environmental conditions and human disturbance. Determination of the extent to which these factors affect roost use and the associated implications for shorebird habitat protection is important for conservation strategies and informed management of human recreational use of these habitats. Shorebird conservation as a whole is a high priority world-wide because a large proportion of shorebird species is in decline. However, little is understood about the consistency of roost use by different species, what conditions affect species-specific roost-site selection, and at what spatial and temporal scales conditions influence selection. 2. We studied high-tide roost-site selection by eight species of non-breeding shorebirds on a critically important stopover and wintering refuge. We calculated spatial and temporal variability in roost use for each species based on counts and consistency of incidence. We then examined roost-site selection in relation to structural, environmental and human disturbance factors, and how this varied across spatial and temporal scales. 3. Most roosts were used less than 50% of the time, although larger roosts were used more consistently. This varied among species, with red knot Calidris canutus tending to concentrate at a few roosts and American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus, dowitcher Limnodromus griseus and Limnodromus scolopaceus and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres more diffusely distributed among roosts. 4. At an annual scale, the principal factors affecting shorebird presence at roosts were roost length (size), local region, substrate and aspect. The extent and direction of these effects varied among species. Among years, red knots avoided roosts that had high average boat activity within 1000 m, but disturbance did not appear to be a factor for other species. 5. Daily roost use was influenced primarily by wind speed and the ability of roosts to provide shelter from the wind. Only dowitchers appeared to track daily disturbance, avoiding prospective roosts when boat activity within 100 m was high. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our findings emphasize the need to consider species-specific differences in temporal- and spatial-scale effects of roost-site selection factors, including human disturbance, when employing conservation measures for shorebirds. We suggest that conservation management should aim to provide a wide range of potential roosts (both natural and artificial) that could be used under different wind conditions and that are within reasonable travelling distance of preferred feeding areas. Roost use is often highly variable, and monitoring efforts must take this into account before making inferences about changes in use or selection of roost sites. ?? 2006 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Great gray owls ( Strix nebulosa ) in Yosemite National Park: on the importance of food, forest structure, and human disturbance

We studied great gray owls (Strix nebulosa Forster) in Yosemite National Park, California, measuring variables that could potentially influence patterns of occurrence and conservation of this stateendangered species. We found that owl presence was closely tied to habitat (red fir (Abies magnified A. Murray) and the abundance of meadows), prey, and snags across the landscape. We also found that indicators of human recreational activities negatively influenced owl distribution and habitat use. Great gray owls appear to prefer mid-elevation red fir forest with meadows that are drier and more productive in terms of small mammal populations. That these areas also have the highest human activity presents a paradox, both for individual owls and for the future conservation and management of this California endangered species. The extent to which human recreation in natural areas affects animal behavior, species distribution, and productivity is a growing issue in natural area management. We present information that will allow land managers to better understand how existing natural resources, coupled with human recreation, influence the distribution and habitat use of the great gray owl.

California

Spatial education: improving conservation delivery through space-structured decision making

Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making designed to guide management of natural resource systems when their behaviors are uncertain. Where decision making can be replicated across units of a landscape, learning can be accelerated, and biological processes can be understood in a larger spatial context. Broad-based partnerships among land management agencies, exemplified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (conservation partnerships created through the U.S. Department of the Interior), are potentially ideal environments for implementing spatially structured adaptive management programs.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Natural Areas Journal

Rapid discovery of SNPs differentiating hatchery steelhead trout from ESA-listed natural-origin steelhead trout using a 57K SNP array

Natural-origin steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum, 1792)) in the Pacific Northwest, USA, are threatened by a number of factors including habitat destruction, disease, decline in marine survival, and a potential erosion of genetic viability due to introgression from hatchery strains. Our major goal was to use a recently developed SNP array containing ∼57 000 SNPs to identify a subset of SNPs that differentiate hatchery and natural-origin populations. We analyzed 35 765 polymorphic SNPs in nine populations of steelhead trout sampled from Puget Sound, Washington, USA. We then conducted two outlier tests and found 360 loci that were candidates for divergent selection between hatchery and natural-origin populations (mean F CT = 0.29, maximum = 0.65) and 595 SNPs that were candidates for selection among natural-origin populations (mean F ST = 0.25, maximum = 0.51). Comparisons with a linkage map revealed that two chromosomes (Omy05 and Omy25) contained significantly more outliers than other chromosomes, suggesting that regions on Omy05 and Omy25 may be of adaptive significance. Our results highlight several advantages of the 57 000 SNP array as a tool for population and conservation genomics studies.

British Columbia, Washington

Pintail and mallard survival in California relative to habitat, abundance, and hunting

The influence of habitat, waterfowl abundance, and hunting on winter survival of waterfowl is not well understood. We studied late August-March survival of 163 after-hatch-year (AHY) and 128 hatch-year (HY) female mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) radiotagged in Sacramento Valley (SACV) and 885 AHY female northern pintails (A. acuta) radiotagged throughout the Central Valley of California, USA, relative to flooded habitat (HAB), January abundance of each species (JMAL or JPIN), hunter-days (HDY), and a hunting pressure index (HPI) that combined these variables. From EARLY (1987-1994) to LATE (1998-2000), HAB increased 39%, JPIN increased 45%, JMAL increased 53%, HDY increased 21%, duck-hunting season increased from 59 days to 100 days, and the female daily bag limit doubled to 2 for mallards but remained 1 for pintails. Survival (?? SE) was greater during LATE versus EARLY for pintails radiotagged in each region (SACV: 93.2 ?? 2.1% vs. 87.6 ?? 3.0%; Suisun Marsh: 86.6 ?? 3.2% vs. 77.0 ?? 3.7%; San Joaquin Valley: 86.6 ?? 3.1% vs. 76.9 ?? 4.1%) but not for SACV mallards (AHY: 70.6 ?? 7.2% to 74.4 ?? 7.7% vs. 80.1 ?? 7.2% to 82.8 ?? 5.6%; HY: 48.7 ?? 9.1% [1999-2000 only] vs. 63.5 ?? 8.8% to 67.6 ?? 8.0%). Most pintail (72%) and mallard (91%) deaths were from hunting, and lower HPI and higher JPIN or JMAL were associated with reduced mortality. Increased HAB was associated with reduced winter mortality for pintails but not for SACV mallards. Pintail survival rates that we measured were within the range reported for other North American wintering areas, and during LATE were higher than most, even though our study duration was 68-110 days longer. Winter survival rates of SACV mallards were also within the reported range. However, with higher bag limits and longer seasons, mallard survival during LATE was lower than in most other wintering areas, especially during 1999-2000, when high winds on opening weekend resulted in high hunting mortality. Habitat conservation and favorable agriculture practices helped create a Central Valley wintering environment where natural mortality of mallards and pintails was low and survival varied with hunting mortality. We recommend regulations and habitat management that continue to minimize natural mortality while allowing sustainable harvest at a level that helps maintain strong incentive for management of Central Valley waterfowl habitats, including the large portion that is privately owned.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Prepublication communication of research results

Publishing of scientific findings is central to the scientific process, and it is traditional to consider findings “provisional” until accepted by a peer-reviewed journal. Until publication, communication of provisional findings beyond participants in the study is typically limited. This practice helps assure scientific integrity. However, a dilemma arises when a provisional finding has urgent societal consequences that may be exacerbated by delay. This dilemma may be particularly pronounced when a discovery concerns wildlife health, which could have implications for conservation, public health (i.e., zoonoses), or domestic animal health (e.g., avian influenza). A scientist may see a need for prepublication communication but consider such communication to be problematic. We suggest that common concerns about directed prepublication communication are generally misplaced. Our perspective comes from natural resources science and management, but we suspect that this situation could arise in any branch of science and that discussing these issues will help scientists who may not routinely work with public officials navigate an unfamiliar situation.

EcoHealth

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management

Habitat assessment for giant pandas in the Qinling Mountain region of China

Because habitat loss and fragmentation threaten giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), habitat protection and restoration are important conservation measures for this endangered species. However, distribution and value of potential habitat to giant pandas on a regional scale are not fully known. Therefore, we identified and ranked giant panda habitat in Foping Nature Reserve, Guanyinshan Nature Reserve, and adjacent areas in the Qinling Mountains of China. We used Mahalanobis distance and 11 digital habitat layers to develop a multivariate habitat signature associated with 247 surveyed giant panda locations, which we then applied to the study region. We identified approximately 128 km 2 of giant panda habitat in Foping Nature Reserve (43.6% of the reserve) and 49 km 2 in Guanyinshan Nature Reserve (33.6% of the reserve). We defined core habitat areas by incorporating a minimum patch-size criterion (5.5 km 2 ) based on home-range size. Percentage of core habitat area was higher in Foping Nature Reserve (41.8% of the reserve) than Guanyinshan Nature Reserve (26.3% of the reserve). Within the larger analysis region, Foping Nature Reserve contained 32.7% of all core habitat areas we identified, indicating regional importance of the reserve. We observed a negative relationship between distribution of core areas and presence of roads and small villages. Protection of giant panda habitat at lower elevations and improvement of habitat linkages among core habitat areas are important in a regional approach to giant panda conservation.

Qinling Mountains

Soil seed banks and the potential restoration of forested wetlands after farming

1 Changes in farming practice provide an opportunity to restore once extensive forested wetlands on agricultural land. In some parts of the world, however, it has proved difficult to restore the full complement of plant species through natural regeneration. Similarly, the restoration of forested wetlands by replanting has often resulted in ecosystems of low diversity. Better methods of restoring these important ecosystems are now required and baldcypress swamps provide an opportunity to investigate alternative approaches to the restoration of forested wetlands. This study examined the composition of seed banks of farmed fields to determine their value in restoring swamps in the south-eastern United States. 2 A seed bank assay of soils from baldcypress swamps was conducted to determine the extent to which seeds are maintained during farming for various lengths of time. Soils from swamps that were farmed for 0–50 years were collected near the northern boundary of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley along the Cache River, Illinois. Soils were placed in a glasshouse setting in flooded and freely drained conditions, and the numbers and species of seeds germinating were recorded. 3 Woody species including trees, shrubs, and vines were poorly represented in seed banks of both farmed and intact sites (51 and 9 sites, respectively). Missing dominants in the seed banks included tree species with short-lived seeds such as Taxodium distichum and Nyssa aquatica . Cephalanthus occidentalis constituted the most abundantly dispersed seed of all woody species. 4 Herbaceous species were well represented in the seed banks of both farmed and intact swamps (species richness of 207 vs. 173 species, respectively) suggesting that herbaceous species may live longer than woody species in seed banks. Few of the herbaceous species decreased in seed density in seed banks with time under cultivation, although seed density was lower at sites that had not been farmed. Species that relied on vegetative organs for dispersal were absent in the seed banks of farmed sites including Heteranthera dubia , Hottonia inflata , Lemna minor , Lemna trisulca and Wolffia columbiana . These species may require active reintroduction during restoration. 5 Synthesis and applications. Both restoration ecologists and managers of nature conservation areas need to be cognisant of seed bank and dispersal characteristics of species to effectively restore and manage forested wetlands. In the case of baldcypress swamps, critical components of the vegetation are not maintained in seed banks, which may make these floodplain wetlands difficult to restore via natural recolonization. Ultimately, the successful restoration of abandoned farm fields to forested wetlands may depend on the re-engineering of flood pulsing across landscapes to reconnect dispersal pathways.

Illinois

Controlled induced recharge tests at Kalamazoo, Mich

This article discusses the results of a controlled field testing program, which indicated that definite hydraulic and other advantages may be gained from induced recharging as practiced at Kalamazoo, Michigan. Results include the following: water levels and artesian pressures can be maintained at high stages, the results are lower pumping lifts and substantial reductions in the amount of power used for pumping; the high water levels permit increased rates of withdrawal during periods of peak demand; encroachment of poor quality water from other aquifers is minimized; the surface water induced into the aquifer is filtered naturally through great thicknesses of earth materials; natural underground storage is used to conserve and protect water, which otherwise would flow largely to waste; and, significant supplemental benefits, including flood control, have been derived. The tests demonstrated that it is possible to manipulate the regimen of a complex hydrologic system for definite hydraulic benefits with predictable results. Furthermore with current methods, quantitative evaluations may be made of the effects of induced recharge. The results of the tests, therefore, are applicable in other areas of similar hydrogeologic environments.

Michigan

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Biology and conservation of Xantus's Murrelet: Discovery, taxonomy and distribution

The biology of Xantus's Murrelets Synthliboramphus hypoleucus is similar in many respects to better-studied Ancient Murrelets S. antiquus, especially regarding morphology and the species' precocial mode of post-hatching development. It nests mainly in rock crevices but also under shrubs on islands in southern California, United States, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (27 o N to 34 o N). The species was discovered in 1859 by Janos Xantus. Two subspecies ( S. h. hypoleucus and S. h. scrippsi ) are recognized that show limited evidence of interbreeding. At sea, closely related Craveri's Murrelets S. craveri co-occur with Xantus's Murrelets off California and western Baja California during half the year, but the former species has a discrete breeding range in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Breeding was documented at 13 island groups between 1863 and 1976. Post-breeding dispersal as far north as central British Columbia, Canada (c. 52 o N) was observed in the 1940s to 1960s. A few Xantus's Murrelets disperse south of breeding colonies to Magdalena Bay, Baja California (c. 24 o N). The southernmost record is the type specimen collected by Xantus near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California (c. 23 o N). Chief threats to this species include introduced mammalian predators on breeding islands, heightened predation by natural predators in human-modified island habitats, and oil pollution. In January 2005, a Pacific Seabird Group special symposium, "Biology and conservation of the Xantus's Murrelet," highlighted conservation concerns and promoted publication of recent studies of this little-known alcid, with nine symposium papers published in this issue of Marine Ornithology. Much of what we know about Xantus's Murrelets has been learned in recent years, and many aspects of biology remain to be described.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management