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Integrating presence-only and detection/non-detection data to estimate distributions and expected abundance of difficult-to-monitor species on a landscape-scale

Estimating species distribution and abundance is foundational to effective management and conservation. Using an integrated species distribution model that combines presence-only data from various sources with detection/non-detection data from structured surveys, we estimated the distribution and expected abundance of three difficult-to-monitor mammals of management concern across New York State, namely, coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). Three distinct landscape-scale camera trap surveys provided detection/non-detection data over 9 years between 2013 and 2021, and we augmented those data with incidental records of our focal species from public repositories. We used an inhomogeneous Poisson point process to construct an integrated model that fit both data types simultaneously. We demonstrate a simple application of spatial point density of all species records in the accessed public databases to inform the thinning process to account for unknown spatial sampling in the presence-only data, often referred to as the ‘magic covariate’. Using this approach, we examine habitat associations and provide spatially explicit estimates in expected abundance across the entirety of New York State for all three focal species. As expected, coyotes were the most widely distributed and abundant species, with a strong positive association with agricultural land uses. Bobcats exhibited low expected abundance throughout the state and showed positive associations with deciduous forest and forest edge, and a negative association with road density. Finally, we observed considerable spatial variation in abundance of black bears with expected abundance increasing in association with various forest cover and composition covariates and decreasing with crop cover. We present insights into habitat associations and spatial variation in abundance, and provide management implications for each of the species of interest. Synthesis and applications . Our integrated modelling method allows for managers to use citizen sightings combined with detection/non-detection surveys to estimate robust indices of abundance for both high- and low-density, and wide-spread versus patchily distributed species. Through comparison with previous studies, we highlight how broad-scale programmes, such as the statewide efforts to estimate species distributions undertaken here, can benefit substantively from integrated models that leverage additional data (here, incidental records) from a larger region of space, and thus capture more landscape heterogeneity than is plausible within formalized surveys alone.

New York

The Colorado Plateau III: integrating research and resources management for effective conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers an area of 130,000 square miles. The relatively high semi-arid province boasts nine national parks, sixteen national monuments, many state parks, and dozens of wilderness areas. With the highest concentration of parklands in North America and unique geological and ecological features, the area is of particular interest to researchers. Derived from the Eighth Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau, this third volume in a series of research on the Colorado Plateau expands upon the previous two books. This volume focuses on the integration of science into resource management issues, summarizes what criteria make a successful collaborative effort, outlines land management concerns about drought, provides summaries of current biological, sociological, and archaeological research, and highlights current environmental issues in the Four Corner States of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. With broad coverage that touches on topics as diverse as historical aspects of pronghorn antelope movement patterns through calculating watershed prescriptions to the role of wind-blown sand in preserving archaeological sites on the Colorado River, this volume stands as a compendium of cuttingedge management-oriented research on the Colorado Plateau. The book also introduces, for the first time, tools that can be used to assist with collaboration efforts among landowners and managers who wish to work together toward preserving resources on the Colorado Plateau and offers a wealth of insights into land management questions for many readers, especially people interested in the natural history, biology, anthropology, wildlife, and cultural management issues of the region.

Utah;Arizona;Colorado;New Mexico

Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change

Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a social process of adaptation planning, and how that process might ultimately be broadened to engage a more diverse set of partners. We engaged participants through a combination of informal meetings, workshops, and other collaborative interactions to explore how the conservation community perceives and pursues its various missions, and how that community might confront the threats and opportunities in its future. Coproduction of knowledge and meaning were facilitated by collaborative scenario planning and strategic planning evaluation, which illuminated how the conservation community is integral to the broader governance of the region and highlighted how responses to forces of change are mediated through local culture, economics, and politics. We suggest an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objectives of both social and ecological systems might be prioritized in tandem, rather than narrowly focusing on environmental protection without consideration of the social landscape. Ultimately, adaptive capacity depends on the ability to act collectively, and social capital, trust, and organization greatly influence the capacity to act. Thus, we conclude that the presence of strong social networks, coordination and deliberation among diverse stakeholders, mechanisms for experiential feedback, and emphasis on social learning are key elements needed to build adaptive capacity. Central to the evolving perspective of governance of the commons is recognition that social and ecological systems are coupled; the issues and problems of one cannot be addressed without considering the consequences for the other. Moreover, a dominant theme emerging from our research and that of other scholars is the importance of culture and place attachment, which generates social cohesion and facilitates problem solving. These ideas have important implications for when, where, and how stakeholders are engaged to address the rapid changes being experienced by social-ecological systems.

South Carolina

A Semi-Implicit, Three-Dimensional Model for Estuarine Circulation

A semi-implicit, finite-difference method for the numerical solution of the three-dimensional equations for circulation in estuaries is presented and tested. The method uses a three-time-level, leapfrog-trapezoidal scheme that is essentially second-order accurate in the spatial and temporal numerical approximations. The three-time-level scheme is shown to be preferred over a two-time-level scheme, especially for problems with strong nonlinearities. The stability of the semi-implicit scheme is free from any time-step limitation related to the terms describing vertical diffusion and the propagation of the surface gravity waves. The scheme does not rely on any form of vertical/horizontal mode-splitting to treat the vertical diffusion implicitly. At each time step, the numerical method uses a double-sweep method to transform a large number of small tridiagonal equation systems and then uses the preconditioned conjugate-gradient method to solve a single, large, five-diagonal equation system for the water surface elevation. The governing equations for the multi-level scheme are prepared in a conservative form by integrating them over the height of each horizontal layer. The layer-integrated volumetric transports replace velocities as the dependent variables so that the depth-integrated continuity equation that is used in the solution for the water surface elevation is linear. Volumetric transports are computed explicitly from the momentum equations. The resulting method is mass conservative, efficient, and numerically accurate.

Open-File Report

Integrating across scales: Effectively applying science for the successful conservation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is an excellent species on which to focus synthetic, integrative investigations because it is an economically important species that captures the public imagination, is heavily impacted by humans, uses several ecosystems over its life, and is the subject of a large body of extant literature. The following 24 papers were solicited to provide the biological basis for effective and innovative approaches that biologists, managers, and social scientists can use to develop policies that sustain Atlantic salmon and related species. Together these papers highlight the need for and benefits of (a) synthesizing within populations, (b) choosing the appropriate scale, (c) comparing across populations using rigorous, focused, question-oriented methods, (d) integrating across disciplines, (e) incorporating the human perspective, (f) linking multiple ecosystems, and (g) applied problem solving. To show how Atlantic salmon can guide research and conservation efforts for other species in other systems, we review the justification for the supplement and summarize the defining concepts that emerge from the volume.

Conference Paper

Identifying conservation introduction sites for endangered birds through the integration of lidar-based habitat suitability models and population viability analyses

Similar to other single-island endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers, the critically endangered ‘ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) is threatened by climate-driven disease spread. To avert the imminent risk of extinction, managers are considering novel measures, including the conservation introduction (CI) of ‘ākohekohe from Maui to higher elevation habitats on the Island of Hawai’i. This study integrated lidar-based habitat suitability models (LHSMs) and population viability analyses (PVAs) to assess five candidate sites currently considered by managers for CI. We first developed an LHSM for the species’ native range on Maui. We then projected habitat suitability across candidate CI sites, using forest structure and topography metrics standardized across sensor types. Given the structural variability observed within the five candidate sites, we identified clusters of contiguous, highly suitable habitat as potential release sites. We then determined how many adult individuals could be supported by each cluster based on adult home range estimates. To determine which clusters could house the minimum number of ‘ākohekohe birds necessary for a stable or increasing future population, we conducted PVAs under multiple scenarios of bird releases. We found that canopy height and relative height 90 had the greatest effects on model performance, possibly reflecting ‘ākohekohe’s preference for taller canopies. We found that a small release of at least nine pairs of equal sex ratios were sufficient for an 80% chance of success and a <1% chance of extirpation in 20 years, resulting in a minimum release area of 4.5 ha in size. We integrated the results of the LHSM and PVA into an interactive web application that allowed managers to consider the caveats and uncertainties associated with both LHSMs and PVAs in their decision-making process. As climate change continues to threaten species worldwide, this research demonstrates the value of lidar remote sensing combined with species-specific models to enable rapid, quantitative assessments that can inform the increasing consideration of time-sensitive conservation introductions.

Hawaii

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

Land

Resolving species boundaries in the critically imperiled freshwater mussel species, Fusconaia mitchelli (Bivalvia: Unionidae)

Species are a fundamental unit of biology, and defining accurate species boundaries is integral to effective conservation and management of imperiled taxa. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionidae) are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in North America, yet species boundaries remain uncertain for many taxa. The False Spike, Fusconaia mitchelli (Simpson in Dall, 1895), is a freshwater mussel considered to be endemic to central Texas (Brazos, Colorado, and Guadalupe drainages). Recent research revealed significant intraspecific genetic variation between geographically separated populations of F . mitchelli , which could be indicative of speciation; however, small sample sizes for several of the populations precluded formal taxonomic revision. Here, we increase taxon sampling and use multilocus DNA sequence data and traditional morphometrics to re‐evaluate species boundaries in F . mitchelli . We sequenced three loci: the protein‐coding mitochondrial DNA genes cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 and NADH dehydrogenase 1 , and the nuclear internal transcribed spacer 1 . Phylogenetic analyses depicted deep genetic divergence between F . mitchelli in the Guadalupe and those in the Brazos and Colorado drainages, which was further supported by available biogeographic information. Morphometric analyses and coalescent‐based species delimitation models integrating both DNA sequence and morphological data provided strong support for the divergence observed between the two geographically isolated clades of F . mitchelli . Based on these results, we revise taxonomy accordingly by elevating the junior synonym Fusconaia iheringi (Wright, 1898) to represent the Brazos and Colorado populations and restrict the distribution of F . mitchelli to the Guadalupe River drainage. Our findings may impact pending management decisions to protect F . mitchelli under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary

A multilocus population genetic survey of greater sage-grouse across their range

The distribution and abundance of the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have declined dramatically, and as a result the species has become the focus of conservation efforts. We conducted a range-wide genetic survey of the species which included 46 populations and over 1000 individuals using both mitochondrial sequence data and data from seven nuclear microsatellites. Nested clade and structure analyses revealed that, in general, the greater sage-grouse populations follow an isolation-by-distance model of restricted gene flow. This suggests that movements of the greater sage-grouse are typically among neighbouring populations and not across the species, range. This may have important implications if management is considering translocations as they should involve neighbouring rather than distant populations to preserve any effects of local adaptation. We identified two populations in Washington with low levels of genetic variation that reflect severe habitat loss and dramatic population decline. Managers of these populations may consider augmentation from geographically close populations. One population (Lyon/Mono) on the southwestern edge of the species’ range appears to have been isolated from all other greater sage-grouse populations. This population is sufficiently genetically distinct that it warrants protection and management as a separate unit. The genetic data presented here, in conjunction with large-scale demographic and habitat data, will provide an integrated approach to conservation efforts for the greater sage-grouse.

Molecular Ecology

Method to support Total Maximum Daily Load development using hydrologic alteration as a surrogate to address aquatic life impairment in New Jersey streams

More than 300 ambient monitoring sites in New Jersey have been identified by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) in its integrated water-quality monitoring and assessment report (that is, the 305(b) Report on general water quality and 303(d) List of waters that do not support their designated uses) as being impaired with respect to aquatic life; however, no unambiguous stressors (for example, nutrients or bacteria) have been identified. Because of the indeterminate nature of the broad range of possible impairments, surrogate measures that more holistically encapsulate the full suite of potential environmental stressors need to be developed. Streamflow alteration resulting from anthropogenic changes in the landscape is one such surrogate. For example, increases in impervious surface cover (ISC) commonly cause increases in surface runoff, which can result in “flashy” hydrology and other changes in the stream corridor that are associated with streamflow alteration. The NJDEP has indicated that methodologies to support a hydrologically based Total Maximum Daily Load (hydro-TMDL) need to be developed in order to identify hydrologic targets that represent a minimal percent deviation from a baseline condition (“minimally altered”) as a surrogate measure to meet criteria in support of designated uses. The primary objective of this study was to develop an applicable hydro-TMDL approach to address aquatic-life impairments associated with hydrologic alteration for New Jersey streams. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, identified 51 non- to moderately impaired gaged streamflow sites in the Raritan River Basin for evaluation. Quantile regression (QR) analysis was used to compare flow and precipitation records and identify baseline hydrographs at 37 of these sites. At sites without an appropriately long period of record (POR) or where a baseline hydrograph could not be identified with QR, a rainfall-runoff model was used to develop simulated baseline hydrographs. The hydro-TMDL approach provided an opportunity to evaluate proportional differences in flow attributes between observed and baseline hydrographs and to develop complementary flow-ecology response relations at a subset of Raritan River Basin sites where available flow and ecological information overlapped. The New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT) was used to determine the stream class of all 51 study sites by using either an observed or a simulated baseline hydrograph. Two New Jersey stream classes (A and C) were evaluated to help characterize the unique hydrology of the Raritan River Basin. In general, class C streams (1.99–40.7 square miles) had smaller drainage areas than class A streams (0.7–785 square miles). Many of the non-impaired and moderately impaired class A and C streams in the Raritan River Basin were found to have significant hydrologic alteration as indicated by numerous flow values that fell outside the established 25th-to-75th- and the more conservative 40th-to-60th-percentile boundaries. However, percent deviations for the class C streams (defined as moderately stable streams with moderately high base-flow contributions) were, in general, much larger than those for the class A streams (defined as semiflashy streams characterized by moderately low base flow). The greater deviations for class C streams in the hydro-TMDL assessments likely resulted from comparisons that were based solely on simulated baseline hydrographs, which were developed without considering any anthropogenic influences in the basin. In contrast, comparisons for many of the class A streams were made by using an observed baseline, which already includes an implicit level of ISC and other human influences on the landscape. By using the hydro-TMDL approach, numerous flow deviations were identified that were indicative of streams that are highly regulated by reservoirs or dams, streams that are affected by increasing amounts of surface runoff resulting from ISC, and streams that are affected by water abstraction (that is, groundwater or surface-water withdrawals used for agricultural and human supply). Eight of the reservoir- and (or) dam-affected sites showed flow deviations that are indicative of flow-managed systems. For example, indices that account for the timing and magnitude of high and low flows were often found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. In general, at regulated class C streams, annual summer low flows are arriving later and tend to be lower, and high flows are arriving earlier with higher magnitudes of longer duration. At class A streams, high and low flows are arriving later with an overall increase in discharge with respect to the prereservoir baseline conditions. The drainage basins of eight of the study sites had large values of ISC (>10 percent), most likely as a result of expanding urban development. In general, the magnitude and frequency of high flows at class A and C sites with high ISC are increasing and were commonly found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. Additionally, magnitudes of low flows are becoming lower and, although the timing of high flows was highly variable, low-flow events appeared to be arriving earlier than would be expected under normal low-flow conditions. Three of the study sites appeared to be affected by hydrologic changes associated with water abstraction. At these sites, the timing of flows appeared to be altered. For example, low flows tended to arrive earlier and high flows arrived later at two of the three sites. Additionally, the magnitude and duration of low flows were commonly less than the 25th-percentile value and the duration of high flows appeared to increase. A reduced set of hydrologic and ecological variables was used to develop univariate and multivariate flow-ecology response models for the aquatic-invertebrate assemblage. Many hydrologic variables accounting for the duration, magnitude, frequency, and timing of flows were significantly correlated with ecological response. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed to provide a more holistic evaluation of the combined effects of hydrologic alteration and to identify models with two or three hydrologic variables that account for a significant proportion of the variability in invertebrate-assemblage condition as represented by assemblage metric scores. MLR models, derived on the basis of hydrologic attributes, accounted for 35 to 75 percent of the variability in assemblage condition. The hydro-TMDL method developed herein for non- to moderately impaired Raritan River Basin streams utilizes a “surrogate” approach in place of the traditional “pollutant of concern” approach commonly used for TMDL development. Managers can use the results obtained by using the hydro-TMDL method to offset the effects of impervious-surface runoff and altered streamflow and to implement measures designed to achieve the necessary load reductions for the “pollutant of concern” (that is, percentage deviations of stream-class-specific flow-index values outside the established 25th-to-75th-percentile range). In this case, such deviations could represent all or a subset of the altered flow indices that prevent the stream from meeting designated aquatic-life criteria. This hydro-TMDL uses a reference, or attainment stream approach for developing the TMDL endpoint. That is, either observed or simulated baseline hydrographs were selected as appropriate reference conditions on the basis of results of QR analysis and watershed modeling procedures, respectively. For any stream in the Raritan River Basin evaluated as part of this study, the hydro-TMDL can be expressed as the greatest amount of deviation in flow a stream can exhibit without violating the stream’s designated aquatic-life criteria. Use of this surrogate approach is appropriate because flows that fall outside the established percentile ranges are ultimately a function of many anthropogenic modifications of the landscape, including the amount of stormwater runoff generated from impervious surfaces within a given basin, the presence of manmade structures designed to retain or divert water, the magnitude of ground- and surface-water abstraction, and the presence of water-supply processes implemented to support human needs. In addition, the stream-type-specific flow indices used as the basis for the hydro-TMDL approach are useful for representing the hydrologic conditions of class A and C streams/basins because they incorporate the full spectrum of flow conditions (very low to very high) that occur in the stream system over a long period of time, as well as those flow properties that change as a result of seasonal variation. Ultimately, an estimate of the maximum percentage flow reduction that could be allowed will be needed to address the aquatic-life impairments in many of the study streams in the Raritan River Basin and will be necessary for identifying appropriate target flow conditions for hydro-TMDL implementation. As described in this report, a target flow value equal to the 25th- or 75th-percentile flow rate could be selected as the point useful for setting specific hydrologic targets. This selection, however, is a management decision that could vary depending on the designated use of the stream or other regulatory factors (for example, water-supply protection, trout production, antidegradation policies, or special protection designations). In New Jersey streams where no unambiguous stressors can be identified, State monitoring agencies, such as the NJDEP, could choose to require the implementation of a flow-based TMDL that not only supports designated uses, but meets the regulatory requirements under the Clean Water Act, and represents a balance between water supply intended to meet human needs and the conservation of ecosystem integrity.

New Jersey

Designing multi-scale hierarchical monitoring frameworks for wildlife to support management: A sage-grouse case study

Population monitoring is integral to the conservation and management of wildlife; yet, analyses of population demographic data rarely consider processes occurring across spatial scales, potentially limiting the effectiveness of adaptive management. Therefore, we developed a method to identify hierarchical levels of organization (i.e., populations) to define multiple spatial scales, specifically intended to help guide appropriate conservation and management actions. This approach can support mobile species with high site fidelity where surveys occur on birthing/breeding grounds or migratory stopovers. Our approach used a graphbased clustering algorithm (Spatial K’luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal) that explicitly included habitat selection information at multiple scales and further refined with constraint-based rules. We applied these concepts to greater sage-grouse leks (breeding grounds), a species of conservation concern, in two different ecological contexts (Nevada and Wyoming, USA). The constraint-based rules accounted for inter-lek movement distances based on literature and field studies in Nevada from 2012 to 2016, included methods to support a spatially balanced monitoring design, and identified barriers to movements among leks based on resistance surfaces. We evaluated the performance of our hierarchical clusters in Nevada using independent data from radio-marked sage-grouse, and we found the finest-scaled cluster level captured ~90% of sagegrouse movements and mid-level scales captured ~97–99% of movements. We expected comparable performance for Wyoming, where we lacked radio-marked sage-grouse for an evaluation, because genetic studies estimate similar dispersal distances to our ~15 km inter-lek movement distance in Nevada. For sage-grouse and other mobile species with high site fidelity, our approach to defining these frameworks could prove valuable for conservation and management applications, such as improving estimation of scale-dependent population trends and guiding the prescription of management actions at spatial scales that align with identified threats. Specific to sage-grouse, our analysis sets the stage for designing a monitoring framework that relies on comparison of short- and long-term population trends across our defined spatial scales and identifies and disentangles factors driving local (e.g., habitat quality) and regional (e.g., climate) population changes, thereby supporting scale-dependent management and research needs for adaptive management practices.

Nevada, Wyoming

Effects of solar energy development on ants in the Mojave Desert

Land-use change from solar energy development may affect desert ecosystems and the soils, plants, and animals therein, yet our understanding of these interactions is nascent. With their ubiquity, criticality as ecosystem constituents, and sensitivity to environmental variation, ants may be useful study organisms for elucidating ecological effects of solar energy development in deserts. Our objectives were to disentangle the response of a desert ant community to solar energy development decisions and test the efficacy of ants as bioindicators at a solar power facility (392 MW) in the Mojave Desert, USA. We used pitfall traps to collect ants in treatments representing different solar energy development decisions, including variably intense site preparation practices: blading (i.e., bulldozing) and mowing, and establishment of undeveloped patches in solar fields, replicated across three power blocks comprising the facility and in undeveloped control sites surrounding the facility. We determined that ant abundance, species richness, Shannon Diversity Index, and functional richness were lower in bladed treatments than in all other treatments and controls. For most taxonomic and functional ant responses, we detected no difference between nonbladed treatments and controls; these results suggest that less intensive site preparation and increased spatial heterogeneity (i.e., undeveloped patches in solar fields) can reduce the negative effects of solar energy development on desert ants. However, our results indicate that ants may serve as useful bioindicators of the severity of anthropogenic disturbance from solar energy development in deserts, and indicator analysis signifies that solar energy infrastructure may negatively affect some species with high ecological value (e.g., harvester ants). Negative effects of solar energy development on ants can have significant implications for desert ecosystem function and integrity, but conservation-minded solar facility design and construction may lead to avoidance of “bottom-up” ecological ramifications of increased solar production during the renewable energy transition.

California

Correcting for measurement errors in a long-term aerial survey with auxiliary photographic data

Long-term, large-scale monitoring of wildlife populations is an integral part of conservation research and management. However, some traditional monitoring protocols lack the information needed to account for sources of measurement error in data analyses. Ignoring measurement error, such as partial availability, imperfect detection, and species misidentification, can lead to mischaracterizations of population states and processes. Accounting for measurement error is key to robust monitoring of populations, which can inform a wide variety of decisions, including harvest, habitat restoration, and determination of the legal status of species. We undertook an effort to retroactively minimize bias in a large-scale, long-term monitoring program for marine birds in the Salish Sea, Washington, USA, by conducting an auxiliary study to jointly estimate components of measurement error. We built a novel model in a Bayesian framework that simultaneously harnessed human observer and photographic data types to produce estimates necessary to correct for the effects of partial availability, imperfect detection, and species misidentification. Across all 31 species identified in photographs, both observers had instances of undercounting and overcounting birds but tended to undercount (observers undercounted totals across all species on 69.3%–78.9% of transects). We estimated species-specific correction factors that can be used to correct both historical and future counts from the Salish Sea survey, which has been running since 1992. Our novel modeling framework can be applied in other multispecies monitoring contexts where minimal photographic data can be collected for the purposes of correcting for measurement error in large-scale, long-term datasets.

Washington

Assessing potential stock structure of adult Coho Salmon in a small Alaska watershed: Quantifying run timing, spawning locations, and holding areas with radiotelemetry

Run timing and spatial locations of spawning habitats are often used to identify stocks for conservation planning or management of salmonid fishes. Although complex stock structure is most common within large watersheds with diverse habitats, even small drainages can produce multiple co-occurring spatially or temporally isolated populations or “stocks.” This project sought to address the potential existence of stock structure of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a small coastal watershed on Kodiak, Alaska that supports vital subsistence and recreational fisheries and is currently managed as a single stock. We radio-tagged a total of 348 adult Coho Salmon upon freshwater entry into the Buskin River across three spawning seasons (2015–2017) and tracked in-river movements to the final locations where mortality signals were recorded. We identified two primary spawning habitats within the system: main-stem and lake tributaries, with 54% (range of 47% to 61%) of tagged fish with determined fates tracked to main-stem river spawning areas and 46% (range 39% to 53%) presumably spawning in small tributaries of the 1-km 2 Buskin Lake at the headwater of the watershed. Despite distinct spatial differences in spawning locations, main-stem and tributary spawners did not differ in migration timing into freshwater (difference in run timing of main-stem versus tributary spawners = 1 d) nor body size (main-stem mean body length, mideye to tail fork = 625 mm, tributary mean = 613 mm). Unexpectedly, we determined nearly 70% of all Coho Salmon spent at least some time in Buskin Lake, including 54% of main-stem spawners, suggesting a potential role of Buskin Lake as an important staging habitat for premature migrating adult Coho Salmon who enter freshwater in advance of final maturation. We also identified areas consistently used for holding prior to spawning that could be used in spatial management planning and during times of necessary conservation to ensure integrity of the stock for the future.

Alaska

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews

Dispersal distance is driven by habitat availability and reproductive success in Northern Great Plains piping plovers

Background Dispersal is a critical life history strategy that has important conservation implications, particularly for at-risk species with active recovery efforts and migratory species. Both natal and breeding dispersal are driven by numerous selection pressures, including conspecific competition, individual characteristics, reproductive success, and spatiotemporal variation in habitat. Most studies focus on dispersal probabilities, but the distance traveled can affect survival, fitness, and even metapopulation dynamics. Methods We examined sources of variation in dispersal distances with 275 natal dispersal and 1335 interannual breeding events for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) breeding in the Northern Great Plains between 2014 and 2019. Results Natal dispersal was on average longer (mean: 81.0 km, median: 53 km) than adult breeding movements (mean: 23.7 km, median: 1 km). Individuals moved the shortest distances when hatched, previously nested, or settling on river habitats. When more habitat was available on their natal area than in the year prior, hatch-year birds moved shorter distances to their first breeding location. Similarly, adults also moved shorter distances when more habitat was available at the settling site and when in closer proximity to other known nesting areas. Additionally, adult movement distance was shorter when successfully hatching a nest the year prior, retaining a mate, or initiating a current nest earlier. Conclusion Habitat availability appears to be associated with dispersal distance for both hatch-year and adult piping plovers. Conservation efforts that integrate dispersal distances may benefit from maintaining nesting habitat within close proximity to other areas for adults and a network of clustered sites spread out across a larger landscape for natal dispersal.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Waterbirds

Ungulate migrations of the western United States, volume 3

Ungulates (hooved mammals) have a broad distribution across the western United States and play an important role in maintaining predator-prey dynamics, affecting vegetation communities, and providing economic benefits to regional communities through tourism and hunting. Throughout the diverse landscapes they occupy, many ungulate populations undertake seasonal migrations to exploit spatially and temporally variable resources and to avoid predation or other threats. As the human footprint continues to expand across the western United States, ungulates increasingly face more obstacles on their migratory journeys. These obstacles threaten the long-term persistence of existing migrations. As a result, wildlife management agencies across the western United States have worked to identify and protect (or enhance) ungulate migration corridors and seasonal ranges identified from global positioning system (GPS) collar data. These efforts garnered additional support through the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order (SO) 3362, which was initiated in 2018 and provided Federal support for enhancing habitat quality of big-game winter ranges and migration corridors across the western states. Further, SO 3362 prompted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to establish the Corridor Mapping Team (CMT): a collaboration between USGS and participating State and Federal wildlife management agencies, as well as numerous Tribal Nations. The CMT works collaboratively to map ungulate migrations and seasonal ranges throughout the western United States within the Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States report series. Volume 1 of the series was published in 2020 and contained migrations and winter ranges from 42 herds across 5 states. Volume 2 was published in 2022 and contained migrations and seasonal ranges from an additional 65 herds. This report, Volume 3 in the series, details migrations and seasonal ranges from an additional 45 herds throughout most western states. In aggregate, the report series has detailed and mapped the migrations and seasonal ranges of 152 ungulate herds and serves as a map-based inventory of the documented ungulate migrations across the western United States. The data layers for most of the herds included in the report series are also available to the public by the USGS. In addition to the included herd maps, this volume provides an overview of the many ways the mapping efforts associated with the CMT are being integrated into local conservation, management, and policy throughout the western United States.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Or