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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2017

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California↗
USGS2023

Alerting the globe of consequential earthquakes

The primary ingredients on the hazard side of the equation include the rapid characterization of the earthquake source and quantifying the spatial distribution of the shaking, plus any secondary hazards an earthquake may have triggered. On the earthquake impact side, loss calculations require the aforementioned hazard assessments—and their uncertainties—as input, plus the quantification of the exposure and vulnerability of structures, infrastructure, and the affected inhabitants. Lastly, effectively communicating uncertain estimates of the resulting impacts on society requires careful consideration of its function and form. All these aspects of rapid earthquake information delivery entailed wide-ranging collaborative research and development among seismologists, earthquake engineers, geographers, social scientists, Information Technology professionals, and communication experts, leveraging diverse components and ingredients not achievable without extensive collaboration. I was very fortunate to be able to work on interesting and useful projects with many colleagues who got involved with them. Advances in content, its rapid delivery, and our ability to better communicate uncertain loss estimates greatly expanded the range of users and critical decision-makers who could directly benefit from rapid post-earthquake information. Moreover, in the critical user–developer feedback loop, we have intently followed requests from users to develop new ways of delivering the most-requested post-earthquake information within the limitations of the science and technology. Such new avenues and tools then motivated and prioritized additional research directions and developments.

Perspectives of Earth and Space Scientists↗
USGS2008

Mercury concentrations in salmonids from western U.S. National Parks and relationships with age and macrophage aggregates

Mercury accumulation in aquatic foodwebs and its effects on aquatic biota are of growing concern both for the health of the fish and the piscivores that prey upon them. This is of particular concern for western U.S. National Parks because it is known that mountainous and Arctic areas are sinks for some contaminants. The Western Airborne Contaminants Assessment Project seeks, in part, to ascertain mercury concentrations and evaluate effects of contaminants on biota in 14 lakes from 8 National Parks or Preserves. In this paper we report that mercury has accumulated to concentrations in trout that may negatively impact some piscivorous wildlife, indicating potential terrestrial ecosystem effects. Additionally, we show that mercury concentrations increase with age in 4 species of trout, providing evidence of bioaccumulation. Finally, we demonstrate that mercury is associated with tissue damage in the kidney and spleen, as indicated by increases in macrophage aggregates. This finding suggests that mercury, and possibly other contaminants, are negatively affecting the trout that inhabit these remote and protected ecosystems. Our results indicate that mercury is indeed a concern for the U.S. National Parks, from an organismic and potentially an ecosystem perspective. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2020

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2010

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗
USGS2024

Natural resource management confronts the growing scale and severity of ecosystem responses to drought and wildfire

Intensification of drought and wildfire associated with climate change has triggered widespread ecosystem stress and transformation. Natural resource managers are on the frontline of these changes, yet their perspectives on whether management actions match the scale and align with the severity of ecosystem responses to improve outcomes are not well understood. To provide new insight, a new conceptual framework that linked scale and severity was tested by conducting interviews and surveys of staff associated with natural resource management on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States (U.S.), which contains the highest concentration of public lands in the contiguous U.S. Results indicate that drought was experienced more frequently than wildfire, and both stressors were happening at large scales and moderate to abrupt timeframes with a high degree of impact to ecosystems. Ecosystem responses were perceived to increase in severity under future climate change with limited capacity to recover, and a majority of resource managers expressed that they had low control to shape these trajectories. Although management strategies to address drought and wildfire were well recognized, adaptation-specific actions remained unclear or had limited financial and staffing resources to support implementation. Additional effort could help close a growing misalignment between management actions and natural resource responses, including effective science communication, refined information tailored to meet adaptation goals at management-relevant spatiotemporal scales, and opportunities for adaptive management that can proactively address intensification of drought and wildfire.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2022

Harnessing island–ocean connections to maximize marine benefits of island conservation

Islands support unique plants, animals, and human societies found nowhere else on the Earth. Local and global stressors threaten the persistence of island ecosystems, with invasive species being among the most damaging, yet solvable, stressors. While the threat of invasive terrestrial mammals on island flora and fauna is well recognized, recent studies have begun to illustrate their extended and destructive impacts on adjacent marine environments. Eradication of invasive mammals and restoration of native biota are promising tools to address both island and ocean management goals. The magnitude of the marine benefits of island restoration, however, is unlikely to be consistent across the globe. We propose a list of six environmental characteristics most likely to affect the strength of land–sea linkages: precipitation, elevation, vegetation cover, soil hydrology, oceanographic productivity, and wave energy. Global databases allow for the calculation of comparable metrics describing each environmental character across islands. Such metrics can be used today to evaluate relative potential for coupled land–sea conservation efforts and, with sustained investment in monitoring on land and sea, can be used in the future to refine science-based planning tools for integrated land–sea management. As conservation practitioners work to address the effects of climate change, ocean stressors, and biodiversity crises, it is essential that we maximize returns from our management investments. Linking efforts on land, including eradication of island invasive mammals, with marine restoration and protection should offer multiplied benefits to achieve concurrent global conservation goals.

PNAS↗
USGS2009

Removal of organic wastewater contaminants in septic systems using advanced treatment technologies

The detection of pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants (OWCs) in ground water and surface-water bodies has raised concerns about the possible ecological impacts of these compounds on nontarget organisms. On-site wastewater treatment systems represent a potentially significant route of entry for organic contaminants to the environment. In this study, effluent samples were collected and analyzed from conventional septic systems and from systems using advanced treatment technologies. Six of 13 target compounds were detected in effluent from at least one septic system. Caffeine, paraxanthine, and acetaminophen were the most frequently detected compounds, and estrogenic activity was detected in 14 of 15 systems. The OWC concentrations were significantly lower in effluent after sand filtration (p < 0.01) or aerobic treatment (p < 0.05) as compared with effluent that had not undergone advanced treatment. In general, concentrations in conventional systems were comparable to those measured in previous studies of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent, and concentrations in systems after advanced treatment were comparable to previously measured concentrations in WWTP effluent. These data indicate that septic systems using advanced treatment can reduce OWCs in treated effluent to similar concentrations as municipal WWTPs. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2009

Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

Gas hydrates (GHs) are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural GH accumulations, the status of the primary international research and development (R&D) programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing the commercialization of production. After a brief examination of GH accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate-production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical-simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps either are not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of GH deposits and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates across long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets; (b) methods to maximize production; and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain GH deposits undesirable for production. Copyright ?? 2009 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Assessing the impact of an online climate science community: The Early Career Climate Forum

Online science communities can serve as powerful platforms for advancing scientific knowledge, capacity, and outreach by increasing collaboration and information sharing among geographically distant peers, practitioners, and the public. Here, we examine the value and role of the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a climate-focused online science community that is based in the United States and is dedicated to training and providing support to the next generation of climate scientists. In a survey of community users and contributors, we find that the ECCF played a unique role in providing users access to career resources as well as climate-related research and insights. Respondents also indicated that the ECCF provides them with a strong sense of community and a sense of hope for the future of climate science research. These findings highlight the importance of online science communities in shaping and supporting the next generation of scientists and practitioners working at the science–management interface on climate change issues.

Weather, Climate and Society↗
USGS2021

Coastal Tree-Ring Records for Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironmental Applications in North America

For more than a century, tree-ring research has identified relationships between climatic and ecological conditions and tree growth to describe past environments and constrain future ecosystem vulnerabilities. Tree-ring records are frequently used as environmental proxies that extend knowledge of past climate and ecology on millennial scales. Many of the most pressing global change questions facing North America concern the rate of climate change and vulnerability of ecosystems and society along the coast. The opportunities and applications in dendrochronology continue to grow with advancing methodologies, faster computational ability, and the cost-reduction of many chemical and anatomical analyses. Here, we propose that many pressing global change questions that affect coastal communities can be addressed using dendrochronological techniques. We review coastal tree-ring studies that demonstrate the utility and potential for future tree-ring studies in the northeastern, southeastern, northwestern, and southwestern North American coasts. Additionally, we show that tree-ring chronologies along the coast give insight into local and regional climate phenomena that are distinct from nearby, inland tree-ring chronologies of the same species. Lastly, we identify opportunities for coastal dendrochronology and encourage the collection of more tree-ring records that are directly impacted by coastal phenomena.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2016

Marine disease impacts, diagnosis, forecasting, management and policy

As Australians were spending millions of dollars in 2014 to remove the coral-eating crown of thorns sea star from the Great Barrier Reef, sea stars started washing up dead for free along North America's Pacific Coast. Because North American sea stars are important and iconic predators in marine communities, locals and marine scientists alike were alarmed by what proved to be the world's most widespread marine mass mortality in geographical extent and species affected, especially given its mysterious cause. Investigative research using modern diagnostic techniques implicated a never-before-seen virus [ 1 ]. The virus inspired international attention to marine diseases, including this theme issue.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2008

Applying the land use portfolio model to estimate natural-hazard loss and risk — A hypothetical demonstration for Ventura County, California

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

California↗
USGS2025

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2014

Fifteen-year patterns of soil carbon and nitrogen following biomass harvesting

The substitution of forest-derived woody biofuels for fossil fuel energy has garnered increasing attention in recent years, but information regarding the mid- and long-term effects on soil productivity is limited. We investigated 15-yr temporal trends in forest floor and mineral soil (0–30 cm) C and N pools in response to organic matter removal treatments (OMR; stem-only harvest, SOH; whole-tree harvest, WTH; and whole-tree plus forest floor removal, FFR) at three edaphically distinct aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx. and P. grandidentata Michx.) forests in the Great Lakes region. The OMR and temporal effects were generally site specific, and both were most evident in the forest floor and combined profile (mineral soil and forest floor) compared with the mineral soil alone. Forest floor and combined profile C and N pools were generally similar in the SOH and WTH treatments, suggesting that slash retention has little impact on soil C and N in this time frame. Temporal changes in C and N at one of the three sites were consistent with patterns documented following exotic earthworm invasion, but mineral soil pools at the other two sites were stable over time. Power analyses demonstrated that significant effects were more likely to be detected for temporal differences than the effects of OMR and in the combined profile than in the mineral soil. Our findings are consistent with previous work demonstrating that OMR effects on soil C and N pools are site specific and more apparent in the forest floor than the mineral soil.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗
USGS2022

Vulnerability of avian populations to renewable energy production

Renewable energy production can kill individual birds, but little is known about how it affects avian populations. We assessed the vulnerability of populations for 23 priority bird species killed at wind and solar facilities in California, USA. Bayesian hierarchical models suggested that 48% of these species were vulnerable to population-level effects from added fatalities caused by renewables and other sources. Effects of renewables extended far beyond the location of energy production to impact bird populations in distant regions across continental migration networks. Populations of species associated with grasslands where turbines were located were most vulnerable to wind. Populations of nocturnal migrant species were most vulnerable to solar, despite not typically being associated with deserts where the solar facilities we evaluated were located. Our findings indicate that addressing declines of North American bird populations requires consideration of the effects of renewables and other anthropogenic threats on both nearby and distant populations of vulnerable species.

California↗
USGS2021

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗