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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Modelling tilt noise caused by atmospheric processes at long periods for several horizontal seismometers at BFO—A reprise

Tilting of the ground due to loading by the variable atmosphere is known to corrupt very long period horizontal seismic records (below 10 mHz) even at the quietest stations. At BFO (Black Forest Observatory, SW-Germany), the opportunity arose to study these disturbances on a variety of simultaneously operated state-of-the-art broad-band sensors. A series of time windows with clear atmospherically caused effects was selected and attempts were made to model these ‘signals’ in a deterministic way. This was done by simultaneously least-squares fitting the locally recorded barometric pressure and its Hilbert transform to the ground accelerations in a bandpass between 100 and 3600 s periods. Variance reductions of up to 97 per cent were obtained. We show our results by combining the ‘specific pressure induced accelerations’ for the two horizontal components of the same sensor as vectors on a horizontal plane, one for direct pressure and one for its Hilbert transform. It turned out that at BFO the direct pressure effects are large, strongly position dependent and largely independent of atmospheric events for instruments installed on piers, while three post-hole sensors are only slightly affected. The infamous ‘cavity effects’ are invoked to be responsible for these large effects on the pier sensors. On the other hand, in the majority of cases all sensors showed very similar magnitudes and directions for the vectors obtained for the regression with the Hilbert transform, but highly variable from event to event especially in direction. Therefore, this direction most certainly has to do with the gradient of the pressure field moving over the station which causes a larger scale deformation of the crust. The observations are very consistent with these two fundamental mechanisms of how fluctuations of atmospheric surface pressure causes tilt noise. The results provide a sound basis for further improvements of the models for these mechanisms. The methods used here can already help to reduce atmospherically induced noise in long-period horizontal seismic records.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2021

Imaging the next Cascadia earthquake: Optimal design for a seafloor GNSS- A network

The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest of the United States of America capable of producing magnitude ∼9 earthquakes, likely often accompanied by tsunamis. An outstanding question in this region is the degree and spatial extent of interseismic strain accumulation on the subduction megathrust. Seafloor geodetic methods combining GNSS and underwater acoustic ranging (GNSS-A) are capable of imaging this strain accumulation on the offshore portion of the subduction zone and therefore anticipating the potential size and rupture pattern of a future earthquake. However, the high cost of seafloor geodesy means that only a limited number of stations may be deployed and monitored. To facilitate expansion of current geodetic networks offshore, we develop a quantitative recommendation of optimal locations for future seafloor geodetic observations, based on the amount of new information provided by that observation. The optimal network depends on the problem that one is trying to solve with those observations (mapping subduction locking rates, coupling rates, constraining total moment rate, etc.), and on a number of modelling and data uncertainty assumptions. In particular, data uncertainty assumptions will change over time, as more position observations reduce velocity uncertainties. We find that near-trench observations on the megathrust hangingwall, distributed along-strike, consistently provide significant reduction in differential entropy over a large suite of assumptions, and that a well-placed seafloor observation can provide up to ∼30 times the information gain of the most optimal onshore observation.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Comment on ‘Evidence for a large strike-slip component during the 1960 Chilean earthquake’ by H. Kanamori, L. Rivera, and S. Lambotte

Based on numerous studies of the relevant geodetic data, a low-angle thrusting mechanism has been assigned to the 1960 Chile earthquake. Kanamori, Rivera and Lambotte recently suggested that a component of dextral slip comparable to the thrusting be included in the mechanism to satisfy long-period, teleseismic observations. The absence of geodetic evidence for that huge strike-slip component is the subject of this comment. The geodetic data are largely measurements of coseismic uplift associated with the earthquake but include eight measurements of the coseismic change in shear strain. Because strike-slip produces relatively little uplift except near the end points of the rupture, identification of that strike-slip component in the geodetic data depends upon the measured, shear-strain change. I consider elastic, half-space models of oblique slip on the plate interface possibly supplemented by simultaneous dextral slip on the nearby, intra-arc Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone. Slip is assumed to be uniform along strike. The best fits to the geodetic data for these models furnish little evidence for strike-slip on those structures. To satisfy the long-period, teleseismic data, Kanamori et al . proposed six examples, each of which requires a large amount of dextral slip. Because the long-period, teleseismic data do not define the slip distributions, I have used the best fits of those examples to the geodetic data to define those distributions. The large thrusting near the deformation front required by those slip distributions implies large uplift there, contrary to the uplift inferred from the inversion of tsunami data. However, an acceptable fit to the geodetic data and the tsunami data for the six examples suggested by Kanamori et al . can be obtained if the seismic moments specified by them are reduced by a factor ∼1.8, a factor within the uncertainties in estimating seismic moments of the 1960 Chile earthquake. The presence of strike-slip in those reduced-moment examples despite the lack of geodetic evidence for strike-slip is due to a remarkable coincidence that requires careful balancing of contributions from the shallower (depths < 70 km) coseismic sources against those from the deeper coseismic sources to nullify the geodetic evidence for strike-slip. Such balancing is possible, but it is remarkable that the balancing is so nearly perfect that it nullifies the geodetic evidence for strike-slip and thereby confounds the interpretation of the geodetic data.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2021

Rayleigh-wave ellipticity in weakly heterogeneous layered media

We derive approximate expressions for the ellipticity (i.e. horizontal-to-vertical or vertical-to-horizontal ratio) of Rayleigh waves propagating in a layered medium. The approximation is based on the generalized energy equation for Rayleigh waves, which has been used previously to obtain perturbational results for ellipticity. For a medium with weakly heterogeneous layers, we obtain an approximation from the perturbational result by taking the background medium to be homogeneous. The generalized energy equation also requires an auxiliary function and we discuss how the various possible functions are related to the homogeneous Rayleigh-wave eigenfunction. The analysis reveals that, within the weak approximation, the product of ellipticity and squared phase velocity is linearly related to squared shear wave velocity in the subsurface. We show the accuracy of the approximation with a simple layer-over-half-space model and then demonstrate its utility in a linear inversion scheme for shear wave velocity.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2021

Density structure of the island of Hawai’i and the implications for gravity-driven motion of the south flank of Kilauea volcano

The discovery that large landslides dissected the Hawaiian islands, scattering debris over thousands of square kilometers of seafloor, changed our ideas of island growth and evolution. The evidence is consistent with catastrophic flank collapse during volcano growth, and draws our focus to the currently active island of Hawai’i, the volcanoes Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, and particularly to the actively-mobile south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Both the weight distribution and pressure within an extensive magma system are perceived to affect stability, but the role of gravitational body forces and island density distribution has not been quantitatively assessed. We use seismic velocities derived from tomography to model the density distribution of the island of Hawai’i and find that olivine-rich melts and rocks in Hawaiian volcanoes result in a close association of seismic velocity and density. The resultant density model reproduces more than 95% of the observed gravity disturbance signal wherever tomographic control exists and provides a basis for evaluating the body forces from gravity. We also find that if the decollement is weak, then gravitational body forces can produce slip that explains most seismo-tectonic and volcano-tectonic structural features of Kīlauea volcano. Where the decollement is in a state of incipient slip from this weight distribution, fluctuations in magma pressure can trigger accelerated slip on the decollement. Yet this is only true of the south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Though weight and magma distributions produce significant forces driving the west flank of Mauna Loa seaward, this flank is stable. Stability over the last decade indicates a strong foundation beneath the west flank of Mauna Loa, perhaps as a result of large debris avalanches that occurred there that scraped clay-rich sediments off of the decollement.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Assessment of a claimed ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULFEM) earthquake precursor

The rate of occurrence of anomalous ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULFEM) pulses has been claimed to have increased days to weeks prior to the M5.4 2007 and M4.0 2010 Alum Rock earthquakes. We re-examine the previously reported ultra-low frequency (ULF: 0.01–10 Hz) magnetic data recorded at a QuakeFinder site located 9 km from the earthquake hypocentre, and compare to data from a nearby Stanford-USGS site located 42 km from the hypocentre, to analyse the characteristics of the pulses and assess their origin. Using pulse definitions and pulse-counting algorithms analogous to those previously reported, we corroborate the increase in pulse counts before the 2007 Alum Rock earthquake at the QuakeFinder station, but we note that the number of pulses depends on chosen temporal and amplitude detection thresholds. These thresholds are arbitrary because we lack a clear physical model or basis for their selection. We do not see the same increase in pulse counts before the 2010 Alum Rock earthquake at the QuakeFinder or Stanford-USGS stations. In addition, the majority of pulses in the QuakeFinder data and Stanford-USGS data do not match temporally, indicating the pulses lack a common origin and are not from lightning or solar-driven ionospheric/magnetospheric disturbances. Our assessment of the temporal distribution of pulse counts shows pulse counts increase during peak human activity hours, suggesting these pulses result from local cultural noise and are not tectonic in origin. The many unknowns about the character and even existence of precursory earthquake pulses means that standard numerical and statistical tests cannot easily be applied. Yet here we show that exhaustive investigation of many different aspects of ULFEM signals can be used to properly characterize their origin.

California↗
USGS2022

High-rate very-long-period seismicity at Yasur volcano, Vanuatu: source mechanism and decoupling from surficial explosions and infrasound

Yasur volcano, Vanuatu is a continuously active open-vent basaltic-andesite stratocone with persistent and long-lived eruptive activity. We present results from a seismo-acoustic field experiment at Yasur, providing locally dense broad-band seismic and infrasonic network coverage from 2016 July 27 to August 3. We corroborate our seismo-acoustic observations with coincident video data from cameras deployed at the crater and on an unoccupied aircraft system (UAS). The waveforms contain a profusion of signals reflecting Yasur’s rapidly occurring and persistent explosive activity. The typical infrasonic signature of Yasur explosions is a classic short-duration and often asymmetric explosion waveform characterized by a sharp compressive onset and wideband frequency content. The dominant seismic signals are numerous repetitive very-long-period (VLP) signals with periods of ∼2–10 s. The VLP seismic events are ‘high-rate’, reoccurring near-continuously throughout the data set with short interevent times (∼20–60 s). We observe variability in the synchronization of seismic VLP and acoustic sources. Explosion events clearly delineated by infrasonic waveforms are underlain by seismic VLPs. However, strong seismic VLPs also occur with only a weak infrasonic expression. Multiplet analysis of the seismic VLPs reveals a systematic progression in the seismo-acoustic source decoupling. The same dominant seismic VLP multiplet occurs with and without surficial explosions and infrasound, and these transitions occur over a timescale of a few days during our field campaign. We subsequently employ template matching, stacking, and full-waveform inversion to image the source mechanism of the dominant VLP multiplet. Inversion of the dominant VLP multiplet stack points to a composite source consisting of either a dual-crack (plus forces) or pipe-crack (plus forces) mechanism. The derived mechanisms correspond to a point-source directly beneath the summit vents with centroid depths in the range ∼900–1000 m below topography. All mechanisms suggest a northeast trending crack dipping relatively shallowly to the northwest and indicate a VLP source centroid and mechanism controlled by a stable structural geologic feature beneath Yasur. We interpret the results in the framework of gas slug ascent through the conduit responsible for Yasur explosions. The VLP mechanism and timing with infrasound (when present) are explained by a shallow-buffered top-down model in which slug ascent is relatively aseismic until reaching the base of a shallow section. Slug disruption in this shallow zone triggers a pressure disturbance that propagates downward and couples at the conduit base (VLP centroid). If the shallow section is open, an explosion propagates to the surface, producing infrasound. In the case of (the same multiplet) VLPs occurring without surficial explosions and weak or no infrasound, the decoupling of the dominant VLPs at ∼900–1000 m depth from surficial explosions and infrasound strongly indicates buffering of the terminal slug ascent. This buffering could be achieved by a variety of conditions at or directly beneath the vents, such as a high-viscosity layer of crystal-rich magma, a debris cap from backfill, a foam layer, or a combination of these. The dominant VLP at Yasur captured by our experiment has a source depth and mechanism separated from surface processes and is stable over time.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2022

Fast rupture of the 2009 Mw 6.9 Canal de Ballenas earthquake in the Gulf of California dynamically triggers seismicity in California

In the Gulf of California, Mexico, the relative motion across the North America-Pacific boundary is accommodated by a series of marine transform faults and spreading centers. About 40 M>6 earthquakes have occurred in the region since 1960. On 3 August 2009, an Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred near Canal de Ballenas in the region. The earthquake was a strike-slip event with a shallow hypocenter that is likely close to the seafloor. In contrast to an adjacent M7 earthquake, this earthquake triggered a ground-motion-based earthquake early warning algorithm being tested in southern California (∼600 km away). This observation suggests that the abnormally large ground motions and dynamic strains observed for this earthquake relate to its rupture properties. To investigate this possibility, we image the rupture process and resolve the slip distribution of the event using a P-wave back-projection approach and a teleseismic, finite-fault inversion method. Results from these two independent analyses indicate a relatively simple, unilateral rupture propagation directed along-strike in the northward direction. However, the average rupture speed is estimated around 4 km/s, suggesting a possible supershear rupture. The supershear speed is also supported by a Rayleigh wave Mach cone analysis, although uncertainties in local velocity structure preclude a definitive conclusion. The Canal de Ballenas earthquake dynamically triggered seismicity at multiple sites in California, with triggering response characteristics varying from location-to-location. For instance, some of the triggered earthquakes in California occurred up to 24 hours later, suggesting that nonlinear triggering mechanisms likely have modulated their occurrence.

Baja California↗
USGS2022

Characteristics, relationships and precision of direct acoustic-to-seismic coupling measurements from local explosions

Acoustic energy originating from explosions, sonic booms, bolides and thunderclaps have been recorded on seismometers since the 1950s. Direct pressure loading from the passing acoustic wave has been modelled and consistently observed to produce ground deformations of the near surface that have retrograde elliptical particle motions. In the past decade, increased deployments of colocated seismometers and infrasound sensors have driven efforts to use the transfer function between direct acoustic-to-seismic coupling to infer near-surface material properties including seismic velocity structure and elastic moduli. In this study, we use a small aperture (≈600 m) array of broadband seismometers installed in different manners and depths in both granite and sedimentary overburden to understand the fundamental nature and repeatability of seismic excitation from 1 to 15 Hz using horizontally propagating acoustic waves generated by 97 local (2–10 km) explosions. In agreement with modelling, we find that the ground motions induced by acoustic-to-seismic coupling attenuate rapidly with depth. We confirm the modelled relation between acoustic and ground motion amplitudes, but show that within one acoustic wavelength, the uncertainty in the transfer coefficient between seismic and acoustic energy at a given seismic station increases linearly with separation distance between the seismic and acoustic sensor. We attribute this observation to the rapid decorrelation of the infrasonic wavefield across small spatial scales and recommend colocating seismic and infrasound sensors for use in studies seeking to invert for near-surface material properties. Additionally, contrary to acoustic-to-seismic coupling theory and prior observations, we find that seismometers emplaced in granite do not record retrograde elliptical particle motions in response to direct pressure loading. We rule out seismometer tilt effects as a likely source of this observations and suggest that existing models of acoustic-to-seismic excitation may be too simplistic for seismometers placed in high rigidity materials.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2022

P- and S-wave velocity estimation by ensemble Kalman inversion of dispersion data for strong motion stations in California

This study uses an ensemble Kalman method for near-surface seismic site characterization of 154 network earthquake monitoring stations in California to improve the resolution of S -wave velocity ( V S ) and P -wave velocity ( V P ) profiles—up to the resolution depth—coupled with better quantification of uncertainties compared to previous site characterization studies at this network. These stations were part of the Yong et al . site characterization project, with selected stations based on future recordings of ground motions that are expected to exceed 10 per cent peak ground acceleration in 50 yr. To estimate V S and V P from experimental dispersion data, Yong et al . investigated these stations using linearized (local search and iteration) routines, and Yong et al . later studied a subset of these stations using nonlinear (global search and optimization) routines. In both studies, the selection of model parameters—that is, discretization of the V S and V P profiles with only five fixed thickness layers—was mainly based on trial and error. In contrast, this paper uses an approximate Bayesian method to assimilate experimental dispersion data and sequentially update an ensemble of particle estimates that span the V S and V P parameter spaces. Doing so, we systematically determine the most probable profiles conditioned on the experimental dispersion data, the introduced noise levels, and a priori knowledge in the form of physical constraints. We consider two configurations to discretize the soil depth from the surface to half of the maximum discernible wavelength obtained from the experimental dispersion data, namely refined and coarse models, and two initial models for each configuration to study solution multiplicity. Our results suggest that using the refined model for the top surface layers improves the resolution of near-surface site characteristics and the model’s success rate in capturing dispersion data at high frequencies. All models result in similar V S but distinct V P profiles, with increasing uncertainty at deeper layers, suggesting that the fundamental mode of Rayleigh wave dispersion data is not adequate to constrain the P -wave velocity profile and the S -wave velocity close to the resolution depth.

California↗
USGS2022

What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning

We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW shaking forecasts including site conditions (which can make shaking more or less varied), the share of earthquake hazard that comes from outlier events, and even the metric of shaking being forecast (with modified Mercalli intensity being the most uncertain quantity to forecast). To provide different locations with the same level of EEW performance, the alert issuance criteria will need to change based on these factors. Finally, we present a hierarchy of information approach with which to communicate EEW system design and performance to the public and other stakeholders, including how frequently alerts will be issued and how accurate those alerts will be.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2022

The global seismographic network reveals atmospherically coupled normal modes excited by the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption

The eruption of the submarine Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai (Hunga Tonga) volcano on 15 January 2022, was one of the largest volcanic explosions recorded by modern geophysical instrumentation. The eruption was notable for the broad range of atmospheric wave phenomena it generated and for their unusual coupling with the oceans and solid Earth. The event was recorded worldwide across the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) by seismometers, microbarographs and infrasound sensors. The broad-band instrumentation in the GSN allows us to make high fidelity observations of spheroidal solid Earth normal modes from this event at frequencies near 3.7 and 4.4 mHz. Similar normal mode excitations were reported following the 1991 Pinatubo (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6) eruption and were predicted, by theory, to arise from the excitation of mesosphere-scale acoustic modes of the atmosphere coupling with the solid Earth. Here, we compare observations for the Hunga Tonga and Pinatubo eruptions and find that both strongly excited the solid Earth normal mode 0 S 29 (3.72 mHz). However, the mean modal amplitude was roughly 11 times larger for the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption. Estimates of attenuation ( Q ) for 0 S 29 across the GSN from temporal modal decay give Q = 332 ± 101, which is higher than estimates of Q for this mode using earthquake data ( Q = 186.9 ± 5). Two microbarographs located at regional distances (<1000 km) to the volcano provide direct observations of the fundamental acoustic mode of the atmosphere. These pressure oscillations, first observed approximately 40 min after the onset of the eruption, are in phase with the seismic Rayleigh wave excitation and are recorded only by microbarographs in proximity (<1500 km) to the eruption. We infer that excitation of fundamental atmospheric modes occurs within a limited area close to the site of the eruption, where they excite select solid Earth fundamental spheroidal modes of similar frequencies that are globally recorded and have a higher apparent Q due to the extended duration of atmospheric oscillations.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2022

Impact of sedimentary basins on Green’s functions for static slip inversion

Earthquakes often occur in regions with complex material structure, such as sedimentary basins or mantle wedges. However, the majority of co-seismic modelling studies assume a simplified, often homogeneous elastic structure in order to expedite the process of model construction and speed up calculations. These co-seismic forward models are used to produce Green’s functions for finite-fault inversions, so any assumptions made in the forward model may introduce bias into estimated slip models. In this study, we use a synthetic model of a sedimentary basin to investigate the impact of 3-D elastic structure on forward models of co-seismic surface deformation. We find that 3-D elastic structure can cause changes in the shape of surface deformation patterns. The magnitude of this effect appears to be primarily controlled by the magnitude of contrast in material properties, rather than the sharpness of contrast, the fault orientation, the location of the fault, or the slip orientation. As examples of real-world cases, we explore the impact of 3-D elastic structure with a model of the Taipei basin in Taiwan and a simulated earthquake on the Sanchaio fault, and with a 3-D geologic model of the San Francisco Bay Area and a slip model of the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake on the Calaveras fault. Once again, we find that the presence of the basin leads to differences in the shape and amplitude of the surface deformation pattern, but we observe that the primary differences are in the magnitude of surface deformation and can be accounted for with a layered elastic structure. Our results imply that the use of homogeneous Green’s functions may lead to bias in inferred slip models in regions with sedimentary basins, so, at a minimum, a layered velocity structure should be used.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2022

Structural properties of the Southern San Andreas fault zone in northern Coachella Valley from magnetotelluric imaging

The Southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) poses one of the largest seismic risks in California. Yet, there is much ambiguity regarding its deeper structural properties around Coachella Valley, in large part due to the relative paucity of everyday seismicity. Here, we image a multistranded section of the SSAF using a non-seismic method, namely magnetotelluric (MT) soundings, to help inform depth-dependent fault zone geometry, fluid content and porosity. The acquired MT data and resultant inversion models highlight a conductive column encompassing the SSAF zone that includes a 2–3 km wide vertical to steeply northeast dipping conductor down to ∼4 km depth (maximum of ∼1 Ω·m at 2 km depth) and another prominent conductor in the ductile crust (∼1 Ω·m at 12 km depth and slightly southwest of the surface SSAF). We estimate porosities of 18–44 per cent for the conductive uppermost 500 m, a 10–15 per cent porosity at 2 km depth and that small amounts (0.1–3 per cent) of interconnected hypersaline fluids produce the deeper conductor. Located northeast of this conductive region is mostly resistive crust indicating dry crystalline rock that extends down to ∼20 km in places. Most of the local seismicity is associated with this resistive region. Located farther northeast still is a conductive region at >13 km depth and separate from the one to the southwest. The imaged anomalies permit two interpretations. The SSAF zone is vertical to steeply northeast dipping in the upper crust and (1) is near vertical at greater depth creating mostly an impermeable barrier for northeast fluid migration or (2) continues to dip northeast but is relatively dry and resistive up to ∼13 km depth where it manifests as a secondary deep ductile crustal conductor. Taken together with existing knowledge, the first interpretation is more likely but more MT investigations are required.

California↗
USGS2023

Quantification of geodetic strain rate uncertainties and implications for seismic hazard estimates

Geodetic velocity data provide first-order constraints on crustal surface strain rates, which in turn are linked to seismic hazard. Estimating the 2-D surface strain tensor everywhere requires knowledge of the surface velocity field everywhere, while geodetic data such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) only have spatially scattered measurements on the surface of the Earth. To use these data to estimate strain rates, some type of interpolation is required. In this study, we review methodologies for strain rate estimation and compare a suite of methods, including a new implementation based on the geostatistical method of kriging, to compare variation between methods with uncertainty based on one method. We estimate the velocity field and calculate strain rates in southern California using a GNSS velocity field and five different interpolation methods to understand the sources of variability in inferred strain rates. Uncertainty related to data noise and station spacing (aleatoric uncertainty) is minimal where station spacing is dense and maximum far from observations. Differences between methods, related to epistemic uncertainty, are usually highest in areas of high strain rate due to differences in how gradients in the velocity field are handled by different interpolation methods. Parameter choices, unsurprisingly, have a strong influence on strain rate field, and we propose the traditional L -curve approach as one method for quantifying the inherent trade-off between fit to the data and models that are reflective of tectonic strain rates. Doing so, we find total variability between five representative strain rate models to be roughly 40 per cent, a much lower value than roughly 100 per cent that was found in previous studies (Hearn et al .). Using multiple methods to tune parameters and calculate strain rates provides a better understanding of the range of acceptable models for a given velocity field. Finally, we present an open-source Python package (Materna et al .) for calculating strain rates, Strain_2D, which allows for the same data and model grid to be used in multiple strain rate methods, can be extended with other methods from the community, and provides an interface for comparing strain rate models, calculating statistics and estimating strain rate uncertainty for a given GNSS data set.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2023

Converted-wave reverse time migration imaging in subduction zone settings

We use a newly developed 2-D elastic reverse time migration (RTM) imaging algorithm based on the Helmholtz decomposition to test approaches for imaging the descending slab in subduction zone regions using local earthquake sources. Our elastic RTM method is designed to reconstruct incident and scattered wavefields at depth, isolate constituent P- and S- wave components via Helmholtz decomposition, and evaluate normalized imaging functions that leverage dominant P and S signals. This method allows us to target particular converted-wave scattering geometries, for example incident S to scattered P , which may be expected to have dominant signals in any given data set. The method is intended to be applied to dense seismic array observations that adequately capture both incident and converted wavefields. We draw a direct connection between our imaging functions and the first-order contrasts in shear wave material properties across seismic discontinuities. Through tests on synthetic data using either S → P or P → S conversions, we find that our technique can successfully recover the structure of a subducting slab using data from a dense wide-angle array of surface stations. We also calculate images with a small-aperture array to test the impact of array geometry on image resolution and interpretability. Our results show that our imaging technique is capable of imaging multiple seismic discontinuities at depth, even with a small number of earthquakes, but that limitations arise when a small aperture array is considered. In this case, the presence of artefacts makes it more difficult to determine the location of seismic discontinuities.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2023

Multiphysics modelling in PyLith: Poroelasticity

PyLith, a community, open-source code for modelling quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation with an emphasis on earthquake faulting, has recently been updated with a flexible multiphysics implementation. We demonstrate the versatility of the multiphysics implementation by extending the code to model fully coupled continuum poromechanics. We verify the newly incorporated physics using standard benchmarks for a porous medium saturated with a slightly compressible fluid. The benchmarks include the 1-D consolidation problem as outlined by Terzaghi, Mandel’s problem for the 2-D case, and Cryer’s problem for the 3-D case. All three benchmarks have been added to the PyLith continuous integration test suite. We compare the closed form analytical solution for each benchmark against solutions generated by our updated code, and lastly, demonstrate that the poroelastic material formulation may be used alongside the existing fault implementation in PyLith.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2024

Constraints from GPS measurements on plate coupling within the Makran subduction zone and tsunami scenarios in the western Indian Ocean

Plate-coupling estimates and previous seismicity indicate that portions of the Makran megathrust of southern Pakistan and Iran are partially coupled and have the potential to produce future magnitude 7+ earthquakes. However, the GPS observations needed to constrain coupling models are sparse and lead to an incomplete understanding of regional earthquake and tsunami hazard. In this study, we assess GPS velocities for plate coupling of the Makran subduction zone with specific attention to model resolution and the accretionary prism rheology. We use finite element model-derived Green's functions to invert for the interseismic slip deficit under both elastic and viscoelastic Earth assumptions. We use the model resolution matrix to characterize plate-coupling scenarios that are consistent with the limited spatial resolution afforded by GPS observations. We then forward model the corresponding tsunami responses at major coastal cities within the western Indian Ocean basin. Our plate-coupling results show potential segmentation of the megathrust with varying coupling from west to east, but do not rule out a scenario where the entire length of the megathrust could rupture in a single earthquake. The full subduction zone rupture scenarios suggest that the Makran may be able to produce earthquakes up to M w 9.2. The corresponding tsunami model from the largest earthquake event ( M w 9.2) estimates maximum wave heights reaching 2–5 m at major port cities in the northern Arabian Sea region. Cities on the west coast of India are less affected (1–2 m). Coastlines bounding eastern Africa, and the Strait of Hormuz, are the least affected (<1 m).

Geophysical Journal International↗