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Land Disturbance Associated with Oil and Gas Development and Effects of Development-Related Land Disturbance on Dissolved-Solids Loads in Streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1991, 2007, and 2025

Oil and gas resource development in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has increased substantially since the year 2000. The UCRB encompasses several significant oil and gas producing areas that have the potential for continued oil and gas resource development. Land disturbance associated with oil and gas resource development is caused by activities related to constructing drill pads to contain drilling and well maintenance equipment and roads to access the drill pad. Land disturbed by oil and gas development has the potential to cause increased erosion, stream degradation, habitat fragmentation and alteration, and increase public use of areas that may be environmentally sensitive. Land disturbance resulting from oil and gas resource development has not been monitored and mapped on a regional scale in the UCRB. However, information on the location and age of oil and gas wells in the UCRB is available. These data combined with geographic data analysis and modeling techniques were used to estimate the total area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas resource development in 1991 and in 2007 in the UCRB. Additional information about anticipated oil and gas development in the UCRB was used to project land disturbance to the year 2025. Results of the analysis indicate that approximately 117,500 acres (183 mi2) of total land disturbance was associated with drill pads and related roads in the UCRB in 1991. The estimated area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas development increased 53 percent to 179,400 acres (280 mi2) in 2007. Projecting oil and gas development through 2025 results in a potential near doubling of the land surface disturbance to approximately 319,300 acres (500 mi2). Estimated land disturbance for 1991 and 2007 were input to a contaminant transport model developed for the UCRB to assess the statistical significance of energy-related land disturbance to contributing dissolved solids to basin streams. The statistical assessment was an observational study based on an existing model and available water-quality monitoring data for the basin. No new data were collected for the analysis. The source coefficient calibrated for the disturbed lands associated with oil and gas development in 2007 was zero, which indicated that estimated land disturbance from oil and gas development is not statistically significant in explaining dissolved solids in UCRB streams. The lack of significance in the contaminant transport modeling framework may be due to the amount of available monitoring data, the spatial distribution of monitoring sites with respect to land disturbance, or the overall quantity of land disturbance associated with oil and gas development basin wide. Finally, dissolved-solids loads derived from natural landscapes may be similar to loads derived from lands disturbed by oil and gas resource development. The model recalibration done for this study confirms calibration results from Kenney and others (2009): the most significant contributor to dissolved solids in the UCRB is irrigated agricultural land, which covers an area substantially larger than the estimated area disturbed by oil and gas development and is subjected to artificially applied water.

Scientific Investigations Report

Trends in nitrogen concentration and nitrogen loads entering the South Shore Estuary Reserve from streams and ground-water discharge in Nassau and Suffolk counties, Long Island, New York, 1952–97

The 13 major south-shore streams in Nassau and Suffolk Counties, Long Island, New York with adequate long-term (1971-97) water-quality records, and 192 south-shore wells with sufficient water-quality data, were selected for analysis of geographic, seasonal, and long-term trends in nitrogen concentration. Annual total nitrogen loads transported to the South Shore Estuary Reserve (SSER) from 11 of these streams were calculated using long-term discharge records. Nitrogen loads from shallow and deep ground water also were calculated using simulated ground-water discharge of 1968-83 hydrologic conditions. Long-term declines in stream discharge occurred in East Meadow Brook, Bellmore Creek and Massapequa Creek in response to extensive sewering in Nassau County. The smallest longterm annual discharge to the SSER was from the westernmost stream, Pines Brook, which is in an area in which the water table has been lowered by sewers since 1952. The three largest average annual discharges to the SSER were from the Connetquot River, Carlls River, and Carmans River in Suffolk County; the discharges from each of these streams were at least twice those of the other streams considered in this study. Total nitrogen concentrations in streams show a geographic trend with a general eastward increase in median total nitrogen concentration in Nassau County and a decreasing trend from Massapequa Creek eastward into Suffolk County. Total nitrogen concentrations in streams generally are lowest during summer and highest in winter as a result of seasonal fluctuations in chemical reactions and biological activity. The greatest seasonal difference in median total nitrogen concentration was at Carlls River with values of 3.4 and 4.2 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as N during summer (April through September) and winter (October through March), respectively. Streams affected by the completion of sewer districts show long-term (1971-97) trends of decreasing total nitrogen concentration and streams showing an increase in total nitrogen concentration are in unsewered areas with increased urbanization. Discharges from shallow ground water (upper glacial aquifer) and deep ground water (upper part of Magothy aquifer) were simulated from a ground-water-flow model calibrated to steadystate (1968-83) conditions. Simulated discharges from shallow-ground-water system in Nassau County were 10,700 Mgal/yr (million gallons per year) or 40,500,000 m 3 /yr (cubic meters per year), and those from Suffolk County were 52,300 Mgal/yr or 198,000,000 m 3 /yr. Discharges from deep-ground-water system in Nassau County were 4,900 Mgal/yr or 18,500,000 m 3 /yr, and those in Suffolk County were 12,700 Mgal/yr or 48,200,000 m 3 /yr. Ground-water concentrations of nitrogen decrease with depth and from west to east. The shallow ground water median nitrogen concentration for each county was determined using 1,155 samples collected at 167 shallow wells (125 feet deep or less) within 1 mile of the shore. The deep ground water median nitrate concentration (nitrate represented almost all of the total nitrogen) for each county was determined using 112 samples collected at 25 deep wells (greater than 125 feet deep) within 1 mile of the shore. The median nitrogen concentration for the shallow and median nitrate concentration for the deep ground water in Nassau County were 3.85 and 0.15 mg/L as N, during 1952–97; the corresponding concentrations for Suffolk County were 1.74 and <0.10 (less than 0.10) mg/L as N, during 1952–97. Nitrogen loads discharged from streams to the SSER for each year during 1972–97 were calculated as the annual total nitrogen concentration multiplied by the annual discharge. These values were calculated only for the seven streams for which sufficient data were available. The largest long-term (1972–97) average annual nitrogen load from Carlls River was 104 ton/yr or 94,300 kg/yr—about twice that of Connetquot River (54 ton/yr or 48,900 kg/yr) and over three times that of Carmans River (33 ton/yr or 29,900 kg/yr). The smallest annual mean nitrogen load was from Pines Brook, which has the lowest annual mean discharge of all streams analyzed. The nitrogen load carried to the SSER by ground-water discharge in shallow-ground-water system in Nassau and Suffolk Counties was calculated as the simulated discharge for each county multiplied by the respective median nitrogen concentration, and loads from deep-ground-water system were calculated as the simulated discharge for each county multiplied by the respective median nitrate concentration. All discharges were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's Long Island ground-water-flow model. The resultant nitrogen loads discharged to the SSER from shallow ground water were 172 ton/yr (156,000 kg/yr) from Nassau County and 380 ton/yr (345,000 kg/yr) from Suffolk County; equaling 552 ton/yr entering the SSER. Those from deep ground water were 3 ton/yr (2,700 kg/yr) from Nassau County and <0.5 ton/yr (480 kg/yr) from Suffolk County; equaling about 3.5 ton/yr entering the SSER. The sum of both stream loads and groundwater loads results in the total load to the SSER. The largest calculated total nitrogen load entering the SSER from both streams and ground water occurred in 1979 with a total load of 1,260 ton/yr (1,140,000 kg/yr). The smallest calculated nitrogen load entering the SSER occurred in 1995 with a total load of 725 ton/yr (658,000 kg/yr).

New York

CLICK: The new USGS center for LIDAR information coordination and knowledge

Elevation data is rapidly becoming an important tool for the visualization and analysis of geographic information. The creation and display of three-dimensional models representing bare earth, vegetation, and structures have become major requirements for geographic research in the past few years. Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) has been increasingly accepted as an effective and accurate technology for acquiring high-resolution elevation data for bare earth, vegetation, and structures. Lidar is an active remote sensing system that records the distance, or range, of a laser fi red from an airborne or space borne platform such as an airplane, helicopter or satellite to objects or features on the Earth&rsquo;s surface. By converting lidar data into bare ground topography and vegetation or structural morphologic information, extremely accurate, high-resolution elevation models can be derived to visualize and quantitatively represent scenes in three dimensions. In addition to high-resolution digital elevation models (Evans et al., 2001), other lidar-derived products include quantitative estimates of vegetative features such as canopy height, canopy closure, and biomass (Lefsky et al., 2002), and models of urban areas such as building footprints and three-dimensional city models (Maas, 2001).

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Analyzing legacy U.S. Geological Survey geochemical databases using GIS: applications for a national mineral resource assessment

This report emphasizes geographic information system analysis and the display of data stored in the legacy U.S. Geological Survey National Geochemical Database for use in mineral resource investigations. Geochemical analyses of soils, stream sediments, and rocks that are archived in the National Geochemical Database provide an extensive data source for investigating geochemical anomalies. A study area in the Egan Range of east-central Nevada was used to develop a geographic information system analysis methodology for two different geochemical datasets involving detailed (Bureau of Land Management Wilderness) and reconnaissance-scale (National Uranium Resource Evaluation) investigations. ArcGIS was used to analyze and thematically map geochemical information at point locations. Watershed-boundary datasets served as a geographic reference to relate potentially anomalous sample sites with hydrologic unit codes at varying scales. The National Hydrography Dataset was analyzed with Hydrography Event Management and ArcGIS Utility Network Analyst tools to delineate potential sediment-sample provenance along a stream network. These tools can be used to track potential upstream-sediment-contributing areas to a sample site. This methodology identifies geochemically anomalous sample sites, watersheds, and streams that could help focus mineral resource investigations in the field.

Egan Range

Evaluation of the streamgage network for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York

The current (2015) streamgage network in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York was evaluated in order to design a network that would meet the hydrologic needs of many partners and serve a variety of purposes and interests, including estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites. This study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission. The study area includes the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York. For this study, 229 streamgages were identified as reference streamgages that could be used to represent ungaged watersheds. Criteria for a reference streamgage are a minimum of 10 years of continuous record, minimally altered streamflow, and a drainage area less than 1,500 square miles. Some of the reference streamgages have been discontinued but provide historical hydrologic information valuable in the determination of streamflow characteristics of ungaged watersheds. Watersheds in the study area not adequately represented by a reference streamgage were identified by examining a range of basin characteristics, the extent of geographic coverage, and the strength of estimated streamflow correlations between gaged and ungaged sites. Basin characteristics were determined for the reference streamgage watersheds and the 1,662 12-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC12) subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin using a geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis and nationally available GIS datasets. Basin characteristics selected for this study include drainage area, mean basin elevation, mean basin slope, percentage of urbanized area, percentage of forested area, percentage of carbonate bedrock, mean annual precipitation, and soil thickness. A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify HUC12 subwatersheds outside the range of basin characteristics of the reference streamgages. There were 320 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 19 percent of the study area, with basin characteristics outside the range represented by the reference streamgage watersheds. A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify geographic gaps in the streamgage network. For each streamgage, a watershed area, called the gage statistical area (GSA), was delineated. The GSA shows the drainage area within a specific drainage-area ratio of the streamgage for transfer of streamflow statistics from that streamgage to ungaged sites on the valid statistical reach of the GSA for a streamgage. In Pennsylvania, a drainage-area ratio of 0.33–3 times the drainage area of the ungaged site was found to perform as well as, if not better than, more traditional ratios such as 0.5–1.5 (or 2) for transfer of selected streamflow statistics. A total of 1,102 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 66 percent of the study area, are outside the GSA for a reference streamgage. The USGS Baseline Streamflow Estimator (BaSE) program was used to determine how well HUC12 subwatersheds outside the streamgage GSAs are represented by the reference streamgage network in Pennsylvania, based on estimated streamflow correlation. The centroid of each HUC12 subwatershed was run through the BaSE program to determine the reference streamgage with the highest estimated streamflow correlation. There were 929 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania, or 56 percent of the State, with an estimated correlation coefficient less than 0.96. The results from the basin characteristic, geographic, and streamflow correlation analyses were combined to identify 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York that lack a representative reference, based on at least one identified gap. Of the 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds, 139 exhibited all three gaps, indicating a 8-percent gap in the reference streamgage network. Streamgages in areas with similar hydrologic characteristics and in close proximity to one another can potentially provide similar information (termed streamgages with high substitution potential). Streamgages were considered to have a high substitution potential with a nearby streamgage(s) if (1) the streamflow correlation coefficient was equal to or greater than 0.96, (2) the streamgages had 10 years of concurrent record, and (3) the streamgages are in the same watershed within the GSA of the streamgage. Seventy-four current (2015) streamgages with high substitution potential with at least one other streamgage were identified in the study area. Although these identified streamgages have a high substitution potential, they provide valuable streamflow information to a stakeholder. Selected primary uses of these streamgages were identified to determine the overall need for an individual streamgage.

New York, Pennsylvania

The Central African Republic Diamond Database—A geodatabase of archival diamond occurrences and areas of recent artisanal and small-scale diamond mining

The alluvial diamond deposits of the Central African Republic (CAR) are mined almost exclusively by way of informal artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) methods. ASM sites range in diameter from a few meters to 30 meters or more, and are typically excavated by crews of diggers using hand tools, sieves, and jigs. CAR’s reported annual production has ranged from 300,000 to 470,000 carats over the past decade. This production is significant for CAR because it accounts for a large portion of the country’s export income and employs an estimated 60,000 to 90,000 miners nationally. Diamond production has also been linked to the violent conflict and political instability which have plagued the country for decades. The most recent conflict began in 2012 and resulted in an international embargo on the export of rough diamonds from CAR. This embargo was followed by a ceasefire and a return of peace in certain zones of the country in 2015; however, political and economic instability continues to afflict many areas of the country. International efforts to restore peace in CAR have included United Nations support as well as international technical assistance in tracking, assessing, and monitoring diamond production. In 2015, the Kimberley Process (KP) developed an operational framework allowing for legitimate exports from five subprefectures in CAR that were deemed to be compliant with KP internal controls and which were also considered to be free from systematic violence or control of armed groups. The goal of this study was to address information gaps regarding the location and extent of diamond occurrences and mining activity through the integration of geologic research with remote sensing, geographic information systems analysis, and fieldwork. Effective and efficient monitoring of diamond mining activity using satellite imagery requires detailed understanding of the geographic distribution of diamond sources and mining activities. A two-phase methodology was developed to address the knowledge gaps. The first phase consisted of the creation of a comprehensive geospatial catalogue of diamond mining and occurrence locations from archival records such as historical maps, mining reports, academic publications, and field data. Building upon this locational database, the second phase consisted of the creation of a geospatial dataset cataloguing current mining activity locations through manual interpretation of recently acquired satellite imagery. The accuracy of this second geospatial dataset was then assessed using field observations made between 2016 and 2017 by the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Property Rights and Artisanal Diamond Development II project. This report presents a two-part geodatabase: part 1 contains the locations of diamond mine sites and occurrences from archival sources, and part 2 indicates areas of current or recent mining activity. This geodatabase is unique in its temporal and spatial extent and may be used to analyze the geographic distribution of CAR’s known diamond resources, to assess the effect of recent violent conflicts and KP actions on diamond produc-tion, to provide decision makers with information regarding small-scale diamond mining, and to improve the monitoring of mining in regions of the country prone to conflict.

Open-File Report

River nutrient loads and catchment size

We have used a total of 496 sample sites to calibrate a simple regression model for calculating dissolved inorganic nutrient fluxes via runoff to the ocean. The regression uses the logarithms of runoff and human population as the independent variables and estimates the logarithms of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus loading with R 2 values near 0.8. This predictive capability is about the same as has been derived for total nutrient loading with process-based models requiring more detailed information on independent variables. We conclude that population and runoff are robust proxies for the more detailed application, landscape modification, and in-stream processing estimated by more process-based models. The regression model has then been applied to a demonstration data set of 1353 river catchments draining to the sea from the North American continent south of the Canadian border. The geographic extents of these basins were extracted from a 1-km digital elevation model for North America, and both runoff and population were estimated for each basin. Most of the basins (72% of the total) are smaller than 103 km2, and both runoff and population density are higher and more variable among small basins than among larger ones.While total load to the ocean can probably be adequately estimated from large systems only, analysis of the geographic distribution of nutrient loading requires consideration of the small basins, which can exhibit significant hydrologic and demographic heterogeneity between systems over their range even within the same geographic region. High-resolution regional and local analysis is necessary for environmental assessment and management. ?? Springer 2005.

Biogeochemistry

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

Geomorphometric analysis of the Summit and Ridge classes of the Geographic Names Information System

This research aims to conduct a geosemantic comparison of landforms classified in the Summit and Ridge feature classes in the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS). The comparison is based on a 2D shape analysis of manually delineated polygons produced by USGS staff to correspond to 33,304 Summit and 8,006 Ridge features. Five shape measures were chosen for this specific geomorphometry-based analysis. Univariate and bivariate statistics are first calculated to compare the two feature classes. This is followed by unsupervised learning with k-means cluster analysis to identify two major geomorphometric clusters corresponding to Summit and Ridge features. Although this supports sufficient internal homogeneity to have stable Summit and Ridge feature classes, more than 7,500 (18%) special features were also identified, which were assigned by k-means to the cluster not corresponding to their given GNIS class. These features remain to be analyzed further to decide if GNIS features should be reclassified based on geomorphometric analysis of available polygonal representations.

Conference Paper

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for such things as the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, Flood Insurance Studies, and flood-plain management. The flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. A multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of stations available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in the Southeastern United States. In addition, streamgages from the inner Coastal Plain of New Jersey were included in the analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques were used to generate predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions; the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain. Incorporation of urban streamgages from New Jersey also allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 2.1 to 53.5 square miles. Explanatory variables in the regression equations included drainage area (DA) and percent of impervious area (IA) for the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley region; DA and percent of developed land for the Sand Hills; and DA, IA, and 24-hour, 50-year maximum precipitation for the Coastal Plain. An application spreadsheet also was developed that can be used to compute the flood-frequency estimates along with the 95-percent prediction intervals for an ungaged location.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

An analysis of the potential for Glen Canyon Dam releases to inundate archaeological sites in the Grand Canyon, Arizona

The development of a one-dimensional flow-routing model for the Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Diamond Creek, Arizona in 2008 provided a potentially useful tool for assessing the degree to which varying discharges from Glen Canyon Dam may inundate terrestrial environments and potentially affect resources located within the zone of inundation. Using outputs from the model, a geographic information system analysis was completed to evaluate the degree to which flows from Glen Canyon Dam might inundate archaeological sites located along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon. The analysis indicates that between 4 and 19 sites could be partially inundated by flows released from Glen Canyon Dam under current (2014) operating guidelines, and as many as 82 archaeological sites may have been inundated to varying degrees by uncontrolled high flows released in June 1983. Additionally, the analysis indicates that more of the sites currently (2014) proposed for active management by the National Park Service are located at low elevations and, therefore, tend to be more susceptible to potential inundation effects than sites not currently (2014) targeted for management actions, although the potential for inundation occurs in both groups of sites. Because of several potential sources of error and uncertainty associated with the model and with limitations of the archaeological data used in this analysis, the results are not unequivocal. These caveats, along with the fact that dam-related impacts can involve more than surface-inundation effects, suggest that the results of this analysis should be used with caution to infer potential effects of Glen Canyon Dam on archaeological sites in the Grand Canyon.

Arizona

Impacts of flowering rush (Butomus umbellatus L.) on macrophyte diversity and composition in the Upper Mississippi River

Flowering rush ( Butomus umbellatus L.), a perennial plant native to Eurasia, made a widespread appearance in the Upper Mississippi River in the United States in 2020, following extremely high river discharge during the previous year. Flowering rush expanded rapidly and was found at 1–10% of sites (n = 6,630 total sites) across a 400 km river reach within the first 4 years of invasion. Flowering rush invaded at least 12 of 31 wetland vegetation classes, including submersed aquatic, rooted-floating, deep marsh, and shallow marsh. Analysis of long-term macrophyte data and our targeted field study revealed that plant diversity declined with greater abundance of flowering rush over a 4-year early invasion period, suggesting that native species were displaced. Furthermore, species correlation plots showed a significant negative correlation (r < -0.1) between flowering rush and several native species, including wild celery, water stargrass, and wild rice. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination placed flowering rush near the center of the plot, which may indicate tolerance to a wide range of environmental conditions such as water depth, flow, and substrate. Centering on the NMDS plot also shows that flowering rush invades many types of vegetated aquatic land cover classes, which was also supported by our geographic information systems analysis of land cover invasion. These habitat associations and ecological impacts of the recent, widespread invasion of flowering rush in the Upper Mississippi River can help inform restoration and management actions during early invasion. Continuing long-term data collection can break limitations on modeling cause-effect relationships and provide insights to the future ecological trajectory of the macrophyte community to this non-native invasive species.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Residential and service-population exposure to multiple natural hazards in the Mount Hood region of Clackamas County, Oregon

The objective of this research is to document residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards in the rural communities of Clackamas County, Oregon, near Mount Hood. The Mount Hood region of Clackamas County has a long history of natural events that have impacted its small, tourism-based communities. To support preparedness and emergency-management planning in the region, a geospatial analysis of population exposure was used to determine the number and type of residents and service populations in flood-, wildfire-, and volcano-related hazard zones. Service populations are a mix of residents and tourists temporarily benefitting from local services, such as retail, education, or recreation. In this study, service population includes day-use visitors at recreational sites, overnight visitors at hotels and resorts, children at schools, and community-center visitors. Although the heavily-forested, rural landscape suggests few people are in the area, there are seasonal peaks of thousands of visitors to the region. “Intelligent” dasymetric mapping efforts using 30-meter resolution land-cover imagery and U.S. Census Bureau data proved ineffective at adequately capturing either the spatial distribution or magnitude of population at risk. Consequently, an address-point-based hybrid dasymetric methodology of assigning population to the physical location of buildings mapped with a global positioning system was employed. The resulting maps of the population (1) provide more precise spatial distributions for hazard-vulnerability assessments, (2) depict appropriate clustering due to higher density structures, such as apartment complexes and multi-unit commercial buildings, and (3) provide new information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of people utilizing services within the study area. Estimates of population exposure to flooding, wildfire, and volcanic hazards were determined by using overlay analysis in a geographic information system. Population exposure to flood hazards is low (less than 10 percent of residents) and does not vary substantially between 100-year and 500-year flood-hazard scenarios. Moderate, moderate-to-high, and high wildfire-risk areas within the study region account for 72 percent of residents, 62 percent of employees, and 60 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites. Fifteen percent of businesses in the study area are in moderate-to-high or high wildfire-risk areas but these businesses represent 51 percent of the local workforce. A volcanic event at Mount Hood could directly impact up to 60 percent of residents in their homes and 87 percent of employees at their workplaces. The proximal volcanic-hazard zone alone includes 65 percent of employees, 80 percent of schools and community facilities, more than 60 percent of overnight visitors in peak seasons, and 82–100 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites during the summer and winter months, respectively. The number of day-use visitors to recreation sites in the region is greatest during winter months (averaging 129,300 people per month), whereas overnight visitors are greatest during summer months (averaging 34,000 per month). This analysis of residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards supports the development of targeted risk-reduction efforts in the region, while also expanding the discourse on characterizing and assessing population dynamics in tourist-frequented areas.

Oregon

Application guide for AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of Channels) described by NHDPlus

AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of CHannels) is a computer application that can be used to generate a time series of monthly flows at stream segments (flowlines) and water yields for catchments defined in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) value-added attribute system. AFINCH provides a basis for integrating monthly flow data from streamgages, water-use data, monthly climatic data, and land-cover characteristics to estimate natural monthly water yields from catchments by user-defined regression equations. Images of monthly water yields for active streamgages are generated in AFINCH and provide a basis for detecting anomalies in water yields, which may be associated with undocumented flow diversions or augmentations. Water yields are multiplied by the drainage areas of the corresponding catchments to estimate monthly flows. Flows from catchments are accumulated downstream through the streamflow network described by the stream segments. For stream segments where streamgages are active, ratios of measured to accumulated flows are computed. These ratios are applied to upstream water yields to proportionally adjust estimated flows to match measured flows. Flow is conserved through the NHDPlus network. A time series of monthly flows can be generated for stream segments that average about 1-mile long, or monthly water yields from catchments that average about 1 square mile. Estimated monthly flows can be displayed within AFINCH, examined for nonstationarity, and tested for monotonic trends. Monthly flows also can be used to estimate flow-duration characteristics at stream segments. AFINCH generates output files of monthly flows and water yields that are compatible with ArcMap, a geographical information system analysis and display environment. Chloropleth maps of monthly water yield and flow can be generated and analyzed within ArcMap by joining NHDPlus data structures with AFINCH output. Matlab code for the AFINCH application is presented.

Scientific Investigations Report

Impacts of Hurricane Irma on Florida Bay Islands, Everglades National Park, U.S.A.

Hurricane Irma made landfall in south Florida, USA, on September 10, 2017 as a category 4 storm. In January 2018, fieldwork was conducted on four previously (2014) sampled islands in Florida Bay, Everglades National Park to examine changes between 2014 and 2018. The objectives were to determine if the net impact of the storm was gain or loss of island landmass and/or elevation; observe and quantify impacts to mangroves; and identify distinctive sedimentary, biochemical, and/or geochemical signatures of the storm. Storm overwash deposits were measured in the field and, in general, interior island mudflats appeared to experience deposition ranging from ~ 0.5 to ~ 6.5 cm. Elevation changes were measured using real-time kinematic positioning and satellite receivers. Comparison of 2014 to 2018 elevation measurements indicates mangrove berms and transitional areas between mudflats and berms experienced erosion and loss of elevation, whereas interior mudflats gained elevation, possibly due to Hurricane Irma. Geographic information system analysis of pre- and post-storm satellite imagery indicates the western-most island, closest to the eye of the storm, lost 32 to 42% (~ 11 to 13 m) of the width of the eastern berm, and vegetated coverage was reduced 9.3% or ~ 9700 m 2 . Vegetated coverage on the eastern-most island was reduced by 1.9% or ~ 9200 m 2 . These results are compared to previous accounts of hurricane impacts and provide a baseline for examining long-term constructive and destructive aspects of hurricanes on the islands and the role of storms in resiliency of Florida Bay islands.

Florida

Reconnaissance guidelines for gold exploration in Central Alaska

Distribution of more than 300 gold-bearing samples from the Livengood (Tolovana) and parts of the Fairbanks and Rampart mining districts in central Alaska, USA, indicate that the concentration of gold in placers is spatially related both to structural features and to Late Cretaceous and (or) Tertiary felsic plutons. The regional consistency of these spatial relationships is demonstrated by proximity analysis using a Geographic Information System (GIS), and suggests a genetic association between faults, felsic plutons, and gold occurrences. The local presence of gold within several of the plutons indicates that these are the source of some of the gold. In addition, some gold occurs proximal to faults where plutons are not present, suggesting that some of the gold was also derived from the country rock. We envision a model whereby weakly mineralized solutions, thermally driven by latent plutonic heat, were enriched by circulation through clastic units that may have had a naturally elevated gold background. The resultant enriched solutions were channeled and reconcentrated along or adjacent to large-scale fault systems. Future exploration to define individual target areas should be directed toward areas where Late Cretaceous and (or) Tertiary felsic plutons occur near major faults. ?? 1993.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration