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Wildfires and global change

No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thresholds and thereby enhance the likelihood and spread of wildfires. Climate change increases the frequency with which some of these thresholds are crossed, extending the duration of the fire season and increasing the frequency of dry years. However, climate-related factors do not explain all of the complexity of global fire-regime changes, as altered ignition patterns (eg human behavior) and fuel structures (eg land-use changes, fire suppression, drought-induced dieback, fragmentation) are extremely important. When the thresholds are crossed, the size of a fire will largely depend on the duration of the fire weather and the extent of the available area with continuous fuels in the landscape.

southeast Australia

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Mentoring is more than a mentor

Recent work has highlighted the substantial positive impact of multi-dimensional mentoring, particularly a mentoring network, in one’s professional development and overall well-being ( SAGE Open 2017; doi.org/10.1177/2158244017710288 ) ( Nat Comm 2022; doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28667-0 ). The Women in Soil Ecology (WiSE) network ( https://womeninsoilecology.github.io ) was born out of a desire to develop mentoring relationships between women from different institutions and career stages – to fill the gaps in traditional faculty–graduate student advising relationships. These gaps included the need for advice and role models in dealing with issues such as harassment and safety in the field and at conferences, work–life balance, navigating family and childcare responsibilities, equal pay and representation, and being a woman in the male-dominated field of soil science ( Soil Sci Soc Am J 2019; doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2019.03.0085 ). Four years and an ongoing pandemic later, our network has grown into much more than we initially envisioned and now connects women with a passion for soil ecology from across the globe.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Linking evolutionary potential to extinction risk: Applications and future directions

Extinction-risk assessments play a major role in prioritizing conservation action at national and international levels. However, quantifying extinction risk is challenging, especially when including the full suite of adaptive responses to environmental change. In particular, evolutionary potential (EP), the capacity to evolve genetically based changes that increase fitness under changing conditions, has proven difficult to evaluate, limiting its inclusion in risk assessments. Theory, experiments, simulations, and field studies all highlight the importance of EP in characterizing and mitigating extinction risk. Disregarding EP can therefore result in ineffective allocation of resources and inadequate recovery planning. Fortunately, proxies for EP can be estimated from environmental, phenotypic, and genetic data. Some proxies can be incorporated into quantitative extinction-risk assessments, whereas others better inform basic conservation actions that maximize resilience to future change. Integration of EP into conservation decision-making is challenging but essential and remains an important area for innovation in applied conservation science.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Evaluating conservation units using network analysis: A sea duck case study

Conserving migratory wildlife requires understanding how groups of individuals interact across seasons and landscapes. Telemetry reveals individual movements at large spatiotemporal scales; however, using movement data to define conservation units requires scaling up from individual movements to species- and community-level patterns. We developed a framework to define flyways and identify important sites from telemetry data and applied it to long-term, range-wide tracking data from three species (640 individuals) of sea ducks: namely, North American scoters ( Melanitta spp). Our network of 88 nodes included both multispecies hotspots and areas uniquely important to individual species. We found limited spatial overlap between scoters wintering on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America, with differing connectivity patterns between coasts. Finally, we identified four multispecies conservation units that did not correspond to traditional management flyways. From this approach, we show how individual movements can be used to quantify range-wide connectivity of migratory species and reveal gaps in conservation strategies.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Prioritizing science efforts to inform decision making on public lands

Public land management agencies in the US are committed to using science-informed decision making, but there has been little research on the types and topics of science that managers need most to inform their decisions. We used the National Environmental Policy Act to identify four types of science information needed for making decisions relevant to public lands: (1) data on resources of concern, (2) scientific studies relevant to potential effects of proposed actions, (3) methods for quantifying potential effects of proposed actions, and (4) effective mitigation measures. We then used this framework to analyze 70 Environmental Assessments completed by the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. Commonly proposed actions were oil and gas development, livestock grazing, land transactions, and recreation. Commonly analyzed resources included terrestrial wildlife, protected birds, vegetation, and soils. Focusing research efforts on the intersection of these resources and actions, and on developing and evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures to protect these resources, could strengthen the science foundation for public lands decision making.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Informing management of recovering predators and their prey with ecological diffusion models

The reintroduction and recovery of predators can be ecologically beneficial as well as socially and economically controversial. However, the growth and expansion of predator populations, and thus their ecological, social, and economic impacts, are not static but rather they vary in space and time. We propose a spatiotemporal statistical modeling framework based on ecological diffusion to better inform the ecology and management of recovering predators and their prey. We demonstrate its utility by applying it to a recovering sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) population in Southeast Alaska, where sea otters were reintroduced in the late 1960s and have exhibited unprecedented population growth. Estimated parameters yield inferences about movement and population ecology, and our approach provides useful derived quantities, such as local abundance and carrying capacity as well as a quantity we term the equilibrium differential. We used our model to examine how density dependence and carrying capacity of sea otters vary spatially across a region. The diffusion modeling approach we present can be generalized for use in other instances of (re)colonization across taxa to inform management and conservation efforts.

Alaska

Managing the threat of infectious disease in fisheries and aquaculture using structured decision making

Fisheries and aquaculture provide food and economic security, especially in the developing world, but both face challenges from infectious disease. Here, we consider management of disease issues from a structured decision-making perspective to examine how infectious disease can threaten seafood production and influence management decisions. For both wild fisheries and aquaculture, disease-management objectives generally aim to mitigate the severity and economic burden of outbreaks. General management strategies include manipulating host densities, reducing system connectivity, conserving or improving habitat, and implementing direct treatments or some other biological interventions. To inform decisions, mathematical models can be used to explore disease dynamics and to forecast the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions. Developing and implementing disease-management strategies also involve considering uncertainties and balancing competing stakeholder interests and risk tolerances. We conclude by outlining several steps for applying structured decision making that are broadly useful to decision makers facing issues related to disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Disease-smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well-documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate-change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease-smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A new era of genetic diversity conservation through novel tools and accessible data

As the foundation of biodiversity, genetic diversity is necessary for species to adapt to ecological changes, such as impacts from disease, invasive species, and climate change. Genetic diversity also supports ecosystem resilience and societal innovations. Unfortunately, declines in genetic diversity have been frequently observed in populations of wild and domestic species. Yet the field of population genetics is often neglected in national and global environmental policy and has been underutilized in biodiversity monitoring and conservation action.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Enhancing One Health outcomes using decision science and negotiation

One Health initiatives have advanced zoonotic disease management by recognizing the interconnectedness of three sectors of governance (human, ecosystem, and animal) and by identifying options that can improve full-system health. Although One Health has had many successes, its full realization may be inhibited by a lack of strategies to overcome simultaneous impediments in decision making and governance. Decision impediments that hinder management may include uncertainty, risk, resource limitations, and trade-offs among objectives. Governance impediments arise from disparities in costs and benefits of disease management among sectors. Tools and strategies developed from decision science, collaboration, and negotiation theory can help articulate and overcome coinciding decision and governance impediments and enhance multisectoral One Health initiatives. In cases where collaboration and negotiation are insufficient to address disparities in cross-sector costs and benefits, altering incentive structures might improve disease-specific outcomes and improve the realization of One Health.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Integrating climate change, biological invasions, and infectious wildlife diseases

Climate change is likely to affect infectious diseases that are facilitated by biological invasions, with repercussions for wildlife conservation and zoonotic risks. Current invasion management and policy are underprepared for the future risks associated with such invasion-related wildlife diseases. By considering evidence from bioclimatology, invasion biology, and disease research, we illustrate how climate change is anticipated to affect disease agents (parasites and pathogens), hosts, and vectors across the different stages of invasions. We highlight the opportunity to integrate these disciplines to identify the effects of climate change on invasion related wildlife diseases. In addition, shifting to a proactive stance in implementing management and policy, such as by incorporating climate-change effects either into preventative and mitigation measures for biosecurity or with rapid response protocols to limit disease spread and impacts, could help to combat future ecological, economic, and human health risks stemming from invasion-related wildlife diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks

In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events, and drought exposure are all projected to increase within seven regions delineated in the US National Climate Assessment. In particular, the anticipated collective impacts of droughts and flooding events will lead to unique management challenges, including combinations of management actions that may seem inconsistent. Furthermore, uncertainty in the magnitude of change varied by region and climate variable considered, pointing to specific opportunities for prioritization, transferability, and innovation of climate adaptation regionally and at the park-unit scale.

conterminous United States

Sparse genetic data limit biodiversity assessments in protected areas globally

Global conservation targets include protecting genetic diversity within species. Yet few studies have assessed whether protected areas (PAs) include genetically diverse populations across species globally. A first step is understanding the availability of population genetic data that could be used in these assessments. We surveyed georeferenced population-level nuclear (as opposed to mitochondrial or plastid-based) genetic data across continents and marine biomes (36,354 populations, 2809 species) and found substantial geographic and taxonomic gaps. Most data were concentrated in Europe and North America, with major gaps in Africa and Asia. For most taxonomic groups, data were available for <1% of described species. Globally, 52.08% of the total areal extent of PAs lacked genetically sampled populations. These gaps in data availability highlight the need for targeted genetic data collection, harmonization, and sharing to improve genetic diversity monitoring and conservation planning. Combined with proxy-based genetic indicators, such data are needed to inform PA assessments, bolster area-based conservation initiatives like 30 × 30, and support achievement of global genetic conservation targets.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Toward a shared vision for climate-informed resource stewardship

Climate-change adaptation planning processes and tools are increasing in number and evolving rapidly. During times of innovation and proliferation, a potential danger is incoherence, when well-intended contributions can overwhelm, create confusion, or mask complementarities. A shared vision is needed to avoid duplication, reduce misunderstandings, and facilitate work across jurisdictions to steward resources undergoing profound changes. Such a vision would document fundamental tools and approaches while allowing flexibility to match highly varied management contexts and organizational missions. Fortunately, the preconditions for coherence exist. Here, we illustrate how climate-change adaptation tools—including scenario planning, conceptual frameworks, structured decision making, and impact-evaluation methods—can be (and are) used in tandem to support adaptation planning that accounts for uncertainty, considers a broad range of strategies and actions, makes transparent and robust choices, evaluates outcomes, and is flexible and responsive to the decision context.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Annual grass invasion is transforming the sagebrush biome’s songbird communities

Novel stressors like climate change and biological invasions alter ecological communities, resulting in changes to ecosystem services and biodiversity (that is, ecological transformation). Most ecological transformation research focuses on plants, but animals are likely affected by and plausibly mediate the extent, impact, and pace of transformations. In western North America, where invasive annual grasses are transforming sagebrush-steppe ecosystems, we quantified how transformation in vegetation drives songbird community change. We hypothesized that transformation of vegetation communities via invasion alters wildlife communities by favoring generalists over specialists, albeit with extinction debts that may temporarily obscure transformations’ consequences. Although local-scale songbird diversity increased with grass invasion, we found that this shift was accompanied by ongoing reorganization of songbird communities at larger scales (across the sagebrush biome), driven by heterogeneous impacts of invasion among species and guilds. Through our biome-wide analysis, we were also able to identify high-priority regions for conservation of sensitive songbird species. Our research provides evidence that wildlife communities are transforming alongside vegetation communities and offers insight into the approaches required to quantify nascent community turnover.

western United States

Paleoecology and ecosystem restoration: Case studies from Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades

Climate extremes that cause droughts, floods, or large temperature fluctuations can complicate ecosystem restoration efforts focused on local and regional human disturbance. Restoration targets are often based primarily on monitoring data and modeling simulations, which provide information on species' short-term response to disturbance and environmental variables. Consequently, the targets may be unsustainable under the spectrum of natural variability inherent in the system or under future climate change. Increasingly, ecologists and restoration planners recognize the value of the long temporal perspective provided by paleoecological data. Advances in paleoclimatology, including better climate proxy methods and temporal resolution, contribute to our understanding of ecosystem response to anthropogenic and climatic forcing at all time scales. We highlight paleoecological research in the Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades and summarize the resulting contributions to restoration planning. Integration of paleoecological, historic, monitoring, and modeling efforts will lead to the development of sustainable, adaptive management strategies for ecosystem restoration.

Delaware, Florida, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvani