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USGS2023

Methane pore accessibility, densification, and accommodation by organic matter in the Niobrara Formation at wet-gas thermal maturity conditions

Petroleum within unconventional source-rock reservoirs is hosted in organic matter and mineral pore space as well as in voids and microfractures. Recent work has shown that for source-rock reservoirs in the dry gas window, significant portions of methane (CH 4 ), the main component of petroleum at elevated maturities, can be stored within fine (<5 nm) organic matter porosity. However, within reservoirs at lower thermal maturities (e.g., peak oil or wet-gas conditions), the distribution and behavior of CH 4 and the higher alkanes that comprise gas condensates across pore sizes is unclear, especially for pores with diameters <50 nm. Understanding CH 4 distribution within these settings provides insight for petroleum generation, movement, and recoverability, ultimately enabling increased accuracy of estimated ultimate recovery. Here wide Q-range total neutron scattering was used to evaluate perdeuterated methane (CD 4 ) behavior at reservoir pressures (200–750 bar) and temperature (60 °C) in a sample at the late oil/wet gas thermal maturity stage from the Late Cretaceous Niobrara Formation, an active petroleum producing formation within the Denver-Julesburg Basin, U.S. Neutron scattering data show that mesopores within the Niobrara Formation sample exhibit mass fractal scattering, similar to previously measured U.S. marine shale samples. In the presence of CD 4 , scattering intensities between Q = 0.02–0.1 Å −1 (corresponding to nominal pore diameters from 25 to 5 nm, respectively) decrease with increased pressure up to 750 bar where at least 80% of all pores with ~25 nm diameters are CD 4 accessible. In contrast, between Q = 0.1–1 Å −1 (corresponding to nominal pore diameters from 5 to 0.5 nm, respectively), scattering intensity initially increased at the lowest CD 4 pressure tested (200 bar) before decreasing with increasing pressure. These signal fluctuations with CD 4 pressure are interpreted to arise from the creation of pores with diameters <5 nm, likely through deformation of solid bitumen by supercritical CD 4 , and/or the incorporation of CD 4 within sample organic matter. This new porosity represents an increase of at least ~8% in available pore volume within the sample, although the majority of these pores do not persist following removal of CD 4 . Additionally, there is strong evidence for densification of CD 4 within the sample indicated by a shift in the CD 4 intermolecular scattering peak to higher Q-values compared to bulk CD 4 . These results provide insight into fluid properties within source-rock reservoirs at late oil/wet gas thermal maturities, especially as they relate to organic porosity interconnectivity, and are discussed with perspective toward pressure management of gas condensate wells.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming↗

USGS2008

Seabed mapping and characterization of sediment variability using the usSEABED data base

We present a methodology for statistical analysis of randomly located marine sediment point data, and apply it to the US continental shelf portions of usSEABED mean grain size records. The usSEABED database, like many modern, large environmental datasets, is heterogeneous and interdisciplinary. We statistically test the database as a source of mean grain size data, and from it provide a first examination of regional seafloor sediment variability across the entire US continental shelf. Data derived from laboratory analyses ("extracted") and from word-based descriptions ("parsed") are treated separately, and they are compared statistically and deterministically. Data records are selected for spatial analysis by their location within sample regions: polygonal areas defined in ArcGIS chosen by geography, water depth, and data sufficiency. We derive isotropic, binned semivariograms from the data, and invert these for estimates of noise variance, field variance, and decorrelation distance. The highly erratic nature of the semivariograms is a result both of the random locations of the data and of the high level of data uncertainty (noise). This decorrelates the data covariance matrix for the inversion, and largely prevents robust estimation of the fractal dimension. Our comparison of the extracted and parsed mean grain size data demonstrates important differences between the two. In particular, extracted measurements generally produce finer mean grain sizes, lower noise variance, and lower field variance than parsed values. Such relationships can be used to derive a regionally dependent conversion factor between the two. Our analysis of sample regions on the US continental shelf revealed considerable geographic variability in the estimated statistical parameters of field variance and decorrelation distance. Some regional relationships are evident, and overall there is a tendency for field variance to be higher where the average mean grain size is finer grained. Surprisingly, parsed and extracted noise magnitudes correlate with each other, which may indicate that some portion of the data variability that we identify as "noise" is caused by real grain size variability at very short scales. Our analyses demonstrate that by applying a bias-correction proxy, usSEABED data can be used to generate reliable interpolated maps of regional mean grain size and sediment character.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2023

At what scales does a river meander? Scale-specific sinuosity (S3) metric for quantifying stream meander size distribution

Stream bend geometry is linked to terrain features, hydrologic and ecologic conditions, and anthropogenic forces. Knowledge of the distributions of geometric properties of streams advances understanding of changing landscape conditions and associated processes that operate over a range of spatial scales. Statistical decomposition of sinuosity in natural linear features has proven a longstanding challenge and a particular impediment to automated analysis. This paper demonstrates that sinuosity can vary with the magnitude of units at which it is measured (measurement scales). The paper derives a scale-specific sinuosity (S3) metric intended to measure stream bend geometry across a range of measurement scales. The metric is warranted for analysis and modeling at measurement scales equal or similar to the spatial process and landscape conditions under investigation. Derived from the Richardson (1961) plot, the S3 metric quantifies a frequency signature of planform bend sizes spanning a range of measurement units, enabling visual and quantitative analysis of bend geometry in linear stream features. Derivation of the metric makes evident a systematic relationship between stream bend size, sinuosity, and measurement scale, formalizing a relationship between sinuosity and fractal dimension. The paper shows the utility of the S3 metric in examining bend patterns for synthetic and real-world linear stream data.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2009

Examining the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields on conservative solute transport

It is widely recognized that groundwater flow and solute transport in natural media are largely controlled by heterogeneities. In the last three decades, many studies have examined the effects of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on flow and transport processes, but there has been much less attention to the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields. In this study, we use porosity and particle size measurements from boreholes at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS) to evaluate the importance of characterizing the spatial structure of porosity and grain size data for solute transport modeling. Then we develop synthetic hydraulic conductivity fields based on relatively simple measurements of porosity from borehole logs and grain size distributions from core samples to examine and compare the characteristics of tracer transport through these fields with and without inclusion of porosity heterogeneity. In particular, we develop horizontal 2D realizations based on data from one of the less heterogeneous units at the BHRS to examine effects where spatial variations in hydraulic parameters are not large. The results indicate that the distributions of porosity and the derived hydraulic conductivity in the study unit resemble fractal normal and lognormal fields respectively. We numerically simulate solute transport in stochastic fields and find that spatial variations in porosity have significant effects on the spread of an injected tracer plume including a significant delay in simulated tracer concentration histories.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2013

Factors controlling floc settling velocity along a longitudinal estuarine transect

A 147 km longitudinal transect of flocculated cohesive sediment properties in San Francisco Bay (SFB) was conducted on June 17th, 2008. Our aim was to determine the factors that control floc settling velocity along the longitudinal axis of the estuary. The INSSEV-LF video system was used to measure floc diameters and settling velocities at 30 stations at a distance of 0.7 m above the estuary bed. Floc sizes (D) ranged from 22 μm to 639 μm and settling velocities (Ws) ranged between 0.04 mm·s − 1 and 15.8 mm·s − 1 during the longitudinal transect. Nearbed turbulent shear stresses throughout the transect duration were within the 0.2–0.5 Pa range which typically stimulates flocculation growth. The individual D–Ws–floc density plots suggest the suspended sediments encountered throughout SFB were composed of both muddy cohesive sediment and mixed sediments flocs. Mass-weighted population mean settling velocity (Ws mass ) ranged from 0.5 mm·s − 1 to 10 mm·s − 1 . The macrofloc and microfloc (demarcation at 160 μm) sub-populations demonstrated parameterised settling velocities which spanned nearly double the range of the sample mean settling velocities (Ws mean ). The macroflocs tended to dominate the suspended mass (up to 77% of the ambient suspended solid concentration; SSC) from San Pablo Bay to Carquinez Strait (the vicinity of the turbidity maximum zone). Microfloc mass was particularly significant (typically 60–100% of the SSC) in the northern section of South Bay and most of Central Bay. The transect took eleven hours to complete and was not fully synoptic. During slack tide, larger and faster settling flocs deposited, accounting for most of the longitudinal variability. The best single predictor of settling velocity was water velocity 39 min prior to sampling, not suspended-sediment concentration or salinity. Resuspension and settling lags are likely responsible for the lagged response of settling velocity to water velocity. The distribution of individual floc diameters and settling velocities indicates that floc density for a given floc diameter varies greatly. A small portion (a few percent) of suspended sediment mass in SFB is sand-sized and inclusion of sand in flocs appears likely. Fractal theory for cohesive sediment assumes that there is a single primary particle size that flocculates, which is not the case for these types of mixed sediment flocs. The wide variability in the physical, biological and chemical processes which contribute to flocculation within SFB means that spatial floc data is required in order to accurately represent the diverse floc dynamics present in the Bay system. The importance in determining accurate estimates of floc density has been highlighted by the SFB data, as these provide the basis for realistic distributions of floc dry mass and the mass settling flux across a floc population. However, although video floc sampling devices can produce the various floc property trends observed in SFB, good survey practice is still paramount. One can see that if the sampling coverage (i.e. data collection frequency) is poor, this could lead to potential mis-interpretations of the data and only limited conclusions may be drawn from such a restricted survey. For example, a limited survey (i.e. only 3 stations, compared to the 10 stations in the full survey) in South Bay produces an under-estimate in both the macrofloc SSC macro distribution by a factor of four and the Ws macro by a factor of two. To develop sediment transport numerical models for SFB, high quality floc size and settling data are needed to understand and simulate the depositional qualities of both suspended cohesive sediment and mixed sediments in San Francisco Bay. This study has shown that the most pragmatic solution is a physically-based approach, whereby the detailed flocs D vs. Ws spectra are parameterised in terms of their macrofloc and microfloc properties. This aids in model calibration, whilst retaining more of the dynamical aspects of the floc populations. All forms of flocculation are dynamically active processes, therefore it is important to also include both SSC and turbulence functions together with the floc data.

California↗

USGS2011

Probing magnetic bottom and crustal temperature variations along the Red Sea margin of Egypt

Over 50 magnetic bottom depths derived from spectra of magnetic anomalies in Eastern Egypt along the Red Sea margin show variable magnetic bottoms ranging from 10 to 34 km. The deep magnetic bottoms correspond more closely to the Moho depth in the region, and not the depth of 580 °C, which lies significantly deeper on the steady state geotherms. These results support the idea of Wasilewski and coworkers that the Moho is a magnetic boundary in continental regions. Reduced-to-pole magnetic highs correspond to areas of Younger Granites that were emplaced toward the end of the Precambrian. Other crystalline Precambrian units formed earlier during the closure of ocean basins are not strongly magnetic. In the north, magnetic bottoms are shallow (10–15 km) in regions with a high proportion of these Younger Granites. In the south, the shoaling of the magnetic bottom associated with the Younger Granites appears to be restricted to the Aswan and Ras Banas regions. Complexity in the variation of magnetic bottom depths may arise due to a combination of factors: i) regions of Younger (Precambrian) Granites with high magnetite content in the upper crust, leaving behind low Curie temperature titanomagnetite components in the middle and lower crust, ii) rise in the depth of 580 °C isotherm where the crust may have been heated due to initiation of intense magmatism at the time of the Red Sea rifting (~ 20 Ma), and iii) the contrast of the above two factors with respect to the neighboring regions where the Moho and/or Curie temperature truncates lithospheric ferromagnetism. Estimates of fractal and centroid magnetic bottoms in the oceanic regions of the Red Sea are significantly below the Moho in places suggesting that oceanic uppermost mantle may be serpentinized to the depth of 15–30 km in those regions.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2002

Statistical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe, Marshall County, northeastern Kansas

Geometrical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe have been considered in statistical terms. A method of conversion of 2D intersections to 3D dimensions was used. It has been shown that the Rosin-Rammler distribution of mass leads to the Weibull distribution of sizes, whereas a fractal distribution of sizes can be expressed as the Pareto distribution. Lognormal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions have been tested as model distributions. The Pareto distribution could be the most appropriate model for the distribution of xenoliths. This conclusion is in agreement with the general concept that the xenoliths formed as a result of an underground explosion without additional breakage occurring during magma transport. The final distribution may be shifted from the initial model as a result of processes of redistribution and sorting of xenoliths in liquid-crystalline flows.

Kansas↗

USGS2010

The perfect debris flow? Aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments

Aggregation of data collected in 28 controlled experiments reveals reproducible debris-flow behavior that provides a clear target for model tests. In each experiment ∼10 m 3 of unsorted, water-saturated sediment composed mostly of sand and gravel discharged from behind a gate, descended a steep, 95-m flume, and formed a deposit on a nearly horizontal runout surface. Experiment subsets were distinguished by differing basal boundary conditions (1 versus 16 mm roughness heights) and sediment mud contents (1 versus 7 percent dry weight). Sensor measurements of evolving flow thicknesses, basal normal stresses, and basal pore fluid pressures demonstrate that debris flows in all subsets developed dilated, coarse-grained, high-friction snouts, followed by bodies of nearly liquefied, finer-grained debris. Mud enhanced flow mobility by maintaining high pore pressures in flow bodies, and bed roughness reduced flow speeds but not distances of flow runout. Roughness had these effects because it promoted debris agitation and grain-size segregation, and thereby aided growth of lateral levees that channelized flow. Grain-size segregation also contributed to development of ubiquitous roll waves, which had diverse amplitudes exhibiting fractal number-size distributions. Despite the influence of these waves and other sources of dispersion, the aggregated data have well-defined patterns that help constrain individual terms in a depth-averaged debris-flow model. The patterns imply that local flow resistance evolved together with global flow dynamics, contradicting the hypothesis that any consistent rheology applied. We infer that new evolution equations, not new rheologies, are needed to explain how characteristic debris-flow behavior emerges from the interactions of debris constituents.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2010

Topographic complexity and roughness of a tropical benthic seascape

Topographic complexity is a fundamental structural property of benthic marine ecosystems that exists across all scales and affects a multitude of processes. Coral reefs are a prime example, for which this complexity has been found to impact water flow, species diversity, nutrient uptake, and wave-energy dissipation, among other properties. Despite its importance, only limited assessments are available regarding the distribution or range of topographic complexity within or between benthic communities. Here, we show substantial variability in topographic complexity over the entire inner-shelf seascape of a tropical island. Roughness, estimated in terms of fractal dimension, served as a proxy for topographic complexity, and was computed for linear transects (D T ), as well as the benthic surface (D S ). Spatial variability in both D T and D S was correlated with the known distribution of benthic cover types in the seascape. Transect roughness values ranged from 1.0 to 1.7, with features along the shelf edge being markedly anisotropic with an along-shore bias, whereas regions with high scleractinian coral cover were nearly isotropic and exhibited minimal directional bias. Surface-roughness values ranged from 2.0 in predominantly hardbottom areas with low coral cover to 2.5 in areas with high coral cover. Quantifying roughness across the substrates and biological communities for an entire seascape provides a synoptic view of its spatial variability at scales appropriate for numerous research efforts, including ecosystem studies, parameterizing hydrodynamic models, and designing monitoring programs.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

The age of scarplike landforms from diffusion-equation analysis

The purpose of this paper is to review developments in the quantitative modeling of fault-scarp geomorphology, principally those since 1980. These developments utilize diffusionequation mathematics, in several different forms, as the basic model of fault-scarp evolution. Because solutions to the general diffusion equation evolve with time, as we expect faultscarp morphology to evolve with time, the model solutions carry information about the age of the structure and thus its time of formation; hence the inclusion of this paper in this volume. The evolution of fault-scarp morphology holds a small but special place in the much larger class of problems in landform evolution. In general, landform evolution means the evolution of topography as a function of both space and time. It is the outcome of the competition among those tectonic processes that make topography, erosive processes that destroy topography, and depositional processes that redistribute topography. Deposition and erosion can always be coupled through conservation-of-mass relations, but in general deposition occurs at great distance from the source region of detritus. Moreover, erosion is an inherently rough process whereas deposition is inherently smooth, as is evident from even casual inspection of shaded-relief, digital-elevation maps (e.g., Thelin and Pike, 1990; Simpson and Anders, 1992) and the current fascination with fractal representations oferoding terrains (e.g., Huang and Turcotte, 1989; Newman and Turcotte, 1990). Nevertheless, large-scale landform-evolution modeling, now a computationally intensive, advanced numerical exercise, is generating ever more realistic landforms (e.g., Willgoose and others, 1991a,b; Kooi and Beaumont, 1994; Tucker and Slingerland, 1994), although many of the rate coefficients remain poorly prescribed

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

Spatial paradigms of lotic diatom distribution: A landscape ecology perspective

Spatial distributional patterns of benthic diatoms and their relation to current velocity were investigated in an unshaded cobble-bottom reach of White Creek (Washington County, NY). On 27 August 1999, diatoms were sampled and current velocity and depth were measured on a regular square sampling grid with a grain size of 0.01 m2, interval of 0.5 m, and extent of 16 m2. The relative abundance of the 18 common diatom species enumerated in the 81 samples was subjected to detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). The first axis (DCA1) explained 51% of the variance in diatom data and separated the samples according to current regimes. The spatial autocorrelation of DCA1 sample scores in deposition and erosion regions of White Creek was determined by Moran's I statistic to indicate patch size. In White Creek the patch length of all diatom communities was more than 3.1 m, whereas the patch width was 1 m in the deposition region and 0.5 m in the erosion region. There were 5 dominant diatom taxa, Achnanthes minutissima Ku??tz. et vars, Fragilaria capucina Dezmazie??res et vars, F. crotonensis Kitt., Diatoma vulgaris Bory, and Synedra ulna (Nitz.) Ehr. et vars. The patch length of the dominant species varied from 1 to more than 4.1 m, whereas the patch width, if defined, was 0.5 m. Achnanthes minutissima and F. capucina, the two diatom species with the highest relative abundance, displayed spatially structured patches of low abundance and comparatively random patches of high abundance, suggesting broad scale abiotic control of species performance in low abundance regions and finer scale biotic control of high abundance areas. Another objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that higher current velocities, which generally impede immigration, would increase randomness and complexity (i.e. homogeneity of diatom distributional patterns). The spatial complexity in low versus high velocity transects was determined by calculating the respective fractal dimension (D) of DCA1 scores. D of DCA1 was higher in the higher current velocity transects, suggesting that spatial complexity and homogeneity of diatom communities increased in faster currents. Partial canonical correspondence analysis was conducted on diatom, environmental, and spatial data to assess how much of the variance in species distribution could be attributed to environmental (current velocity and depth) versus spatial factors. The variance of species data, explained by the environment (exclusively current velocity), was 38%; whereas space alone contributed only 10%, indicating that 1) current velocity was the major factor that controlled diatom distribution in streams and 2) there were other spatially dependent variables, most likely biotic, but their role in shaping diatom communities was minor.

Journal of Phycology↗

USGS2013

Lake shoreline in the contiguous United States: Quantity, distribution and sensitivity to observation resolution

1. Quantifying lake biogeochemical processing at broad spatial scales requires that we scale processes along with physical metrics. Past work has primarily scaled lentic processes using estimates of lake surface area. However, many processes important to lakes, such as material, energy and biological ﬂuxes and biogeochemical cycling, scale with lake perimeter. 2. We estimate the total lake perimeter for the contiguous United States (U.S.) and examine the sensitivity of this estimate to measurement resolution. At the original mapping resolution, lakes in the contiguous U.S. have a total perimeter of over 1.8 million km. 3. The change in measured perimeter versus measurement resolution for the contiguous U.S. had a log-log slope (also known as the fractal dimension) of 0.21, generally less than previously reported estimates. With changing observation resolution, total measured perimeter was most sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of small lakes, not shoreline complexity. 4. The total aquatic–terrestrial interface in lakes is less than one-tenth that of streams and rivers, which collectively account for over 21 million km of shoreline in the contiguous U.S. This study further describes the distribution of lake perimeter and proposes a technique that can contribute to understanding continental-scale processes.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2000

Geomorphometry-Diversity in quantitative surface analysis

A widening variety of applications is diversifying geomorphometry ( digital terrain modelling ), the quantitative study of topography. An amalgam of earth science, mathematics, engineering and computer science, the discipline has been revolutionized by the computer manipulation of gridded terrain heights, or digital elevation models (DEMs). Its rapid expansion continues. This article reviews the remarkable diversity of recent morphometric work in 15 selected topics and discusses their significance and prospects. The quantitative analysis of industrial microsurface topography is introduced to the earth science community. The 14 other topics are Internet access to geomorphometry; global DEMs; DEM modelling of channel networks; self-organized criticality; fractal and wavelet analysis; soil resources; landslide hazards; barchan dunes; harvesting wind energy; sea-ice surfaces; sea-floor abyssal hills; Japanese work in morphometry; and the emerging fields of landscape ecology and image understanding. Closing remarks note reasons for the diversity within geomorphometry, speculate on future trends and recommend creating a unified field of surface representation.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

USGS2005

Calculation of broadband time histories of ground motion, Part II: Kinematic and dynamic modeling using theoretical Green's functions and comparison with the 1994 northridge earthquake

In the evolution of methods for calculating synthetic time histories of ground motion for postulated earthquakes, kinematic source models have dominated to date because of their ease of application. Dynamic models, however, which incorporate a physical relationship between important faulting parameters of stress drop, slip, rupture velocity, and rise time, are becoming more accessible. This article compares a class of kinematic models based on the summation of a fractal distribution of subevent sizes with a dynamic model based on the slip-weakening friction law. Kinematic modeling is done for the frequency band 0.2 to 10.0. Hz, dynamic models are calculated from 0.2 to 2.0. Hz. The strong motion data set for the 1994 Northridge earthquake is used to evaluate and compare the synthetic time histories. Source models are propagated to the far field by convolution with 1D and 3D theoretical Green’s functions. In addition, the kinematic model is used to evaluate the importance of propagation path effects: velocity structure, scattering, and nonlinearity. At present, the kinematic model gives a better broadband fit to the Northridge ground motion than the simple slip-weakening dynamic model. In general, the dynamic model overpredicts rise times and produces insufficient shorter-period energy. Within the context of the slip-weakening model, the Northridge ground motion requires a short slip-weakening distance, on the order of 0.15 m or less. A more complex dynamic model including rate weakening or one that allows shorter rise times near the hypocenter may fit the data better.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Comment on “Models of stochastic, spatially varying stress in the crust compatible with focal‐mechanism data, and how stress inversions can be biased toward the stress rate” by Deborah Elaine Smith and Thomas H. Heaton

Smith and Heaton (2011) propose a model in which stress in the crust is fractal‐like and highly variable on a range of length scales, including short length‐scales of ~1 km. Smith and Heaton (2011) motivate the need for stress heterogeneity on short length‐scales by citing observations such as short length‐scale changes in stress directions inferred from borehole breakouts, short length‐scale changes in earthquake slip, and the success of numerical models that include short‐wavelength stress heterogeneity. The heterogeneous part of the stress field in their model is more than twice as large as the homogeneous part. The stress field in this model frequently reverses itself over short distances, as can be seen in figure14 a of Smith and Heaton (2011). The modeled stress field contains at least 10 areas of reversed shear stress direction over the length of a 100 km long profile, with the length of the reversed areas ranging from <1 to ~5 km. This model makes specific predictions about the orientations and heterogeneity of earthquake focal mechanisms. Smith and Heaton (2011) attempt to validate this heterogeneous stress model using observations of earthquake focal‐mechanism variability from Hardebeck (2006). They then demonstrate that the model predicts a bias in the orientations of earthquake focal mechanisms, which are biased away from the background stress and toward the stressing rate. They suggest the focal‐mechanism bias in this model invalidates the large body of work over the last several decades, that has inferred stress orientations from the inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms. The question of whether or not the Smith and Heaton (2011) model is applicable to the real Earth is therefore important not only for understanding spatial stress variability but also for evaluating the numerous studies that have inferred crustal stress orientations from earthquake focal mechanisms (e.g., as compiled by Heidbach et al. , 2008).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1996

The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

USGS2023

Snow surface roughness across spatio-temporal scales

The snow surface is at the interface between the atmosphere and Earth. The surface of the snowpack changes due to its interaction with precipitation, wind, humidity, short- and long-wave radiation, underlying terrain characteristics, and land cover. These connections create a dynamic snow surface that impacts the energy and mass balance of the snowpack, blowing snow potential, and other snowpack processes. Despite this, the snow surface is generally considered a constant parameter in many Earth system models. Data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) collected in 2002 and 2003 across northern Colorado were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of snow surface roughness. The random roughness (RR) and fractal dimension (D) metrics used in this investigation are well correlated. However, roughness is not correlated across scales, computed here from snow roughness boards at a millimeter resolution and airborne lidar at a meter resolution. Process scale differences were found based on land cover at each of the two measurement scales, as appraised through measurements in the forest and alpine.

Colorado↗

USGS1996

Observations of rapid-fire event tremor at Lascar volcano, Chile

During the Proyecto de Investigacio??n Sismolo??gica de la Cordillera Occidental (PISCO '94) in the Atacama desert of Northern Chile, a continuously recording broadband seismic station was installed to the NW of the currently active volcano, Lascar. For the month of April, 1994, an additional network of three, short period, three-component stations was deployed around the volcano to help discriminate its seismic signals from other local seismicity. During the deployment, the volcanic activity at Lascar appeared to be limited mainly to the emission of steam and SO2. Tremor from Lascar is a random, ??rapid-fire?? series of events with a wide range of amplitudes and a quasi-fractal structure. The tremor is generated by an ensemble of independent elementary sources clustered in the volcanic edifice. In the short-term, the excitation of the sources fluctuates strongly, while the long-term power spectrum is very stationary.

Annals of Geophysics↗