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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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58 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with>85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2013

Debris flows resulting from glacial-lake outburst floods in tibet, China

During the last 70 years of general climatic amelioration, 18 glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows have occurred from 15 moraine-dammed lakes in Tibet, China. Catastrophic loss of life and property has occurred because of the following factors: the large volumes of water discharged, the steep gradients of the U-shaped channels, and the amount and texture of the downstream channel bed and bank material. The peak discharge of each GLOF exceeded 1000 m3/s. These flood discharges transformed to non-cohesive debris flows if the channels contained sufficient loose sediment for entrainment (bulking) and if their gradients were >1%. We focus on this key element, transformation, and suggest that it be included in evaluating future GLOF-related risk, the probability of transformation to debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow. The general, sequential evolution of the flows can be described as from proximal GLOFs, to sedimentladen streamflow, to hyperconcentrated flow, to non-cohesive debris flow (viscous or cohesive debris flow only if sufficient fine sediment is present), and then, distally, back to hyperconcentrated flow and sediment-laden streamflow as sediment is progressively deposited. Most of the Tibet examples transformed only to non-cohesive debris flows. The important lesson for future hazard assessment and mitigation planning is that, as a GLOF entrains (bulks) enough sediment to become a debris flow, the flow volume must increase by at least three times (the "bulking factor"). In fact, the transforming flow waves overrun and mix with downstream streamflow, in addition to adding the entrained sediment (and thus enabling addition of yet more sediment and a bulking factor in excess of three times). To effectively reduce the risk of GLOF debris flows, reducing the level of a potentially dangerous lake with a siphon or excavated spillway or installing gabions in combination with a downstream debris dam are the primary approaches.

Physical Geography↗
USGS2012

Climate change and human health: Spatial modeling of water availability, malnutrition, and livelihoods in Mali, Africa

This study develops a novel approach for projecting climate trends in the Sahel in relation to shifting livelihood zones and health outcomes. Focusing on Mali, we explore baseline relationships between temperature, precipitation, livelihood, and malnutrition in 407 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) clusters with a total of 14,238 children, resulting in a thorough spatial analysis of coupled climate-health dynamics. Results suggest links between livelihoods and each measure of malnutrition, as well as a link between climate and stunting. A ‘front-line’ of vulnerability, related to the transition between agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, is identified as an area where mitigation efforts might be usefully targeted. Additionally, climate is projected to 2025 for the Sahel, and demographic trends are introduced to explore how the intersection of climate and demographics may shift the vulnerability ‘front-line’, potentially exposing an additional 6 million people in Mali, up to a million of them children, to heightened risk of malnutrition from climate and livelihood changes. Results indicate that, holding constant morbidity levels, approximately one quarter of a million children will suffer stunting, nearly two hundred thousand will be malnourished, and over one hundred thousand will become anemic in this expanding arid zone by 2025. Climate and health research conducted at finer spatial scales and within shorter projected time lines can identify vulnerability hot spots that are of the highest priority for adaptation interventions; such an analysis can also identify areas with similar characteristics that may be at heightened risk. Such meso-scale coupled human-environment research may facilitate appropriate policy interventions strategically located beyond today’s vulnerability front-line.

Applied Geography↗
USGS2011

Characterizing fragmentation of the collective forests in southern China from multitemporal Landsat imagery: A case study from Kecheng district of Zhejiang province

Tropical and subtropical forests provide important ecosystem goods and services including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. These forests are facing increasing socioeconomic pressures and are rapidly being degraded and fragmented. This analysis focuses on the rate of change and patterns of fragmentation in a collective forest area in Zhejiang province, China, during the time period 1988–2005. The research consisted of two parts. The first was the development of general land cover maps and the identification of land cover changes by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) time series imagery. The second part involved the computation and analysis of forest fragmentation metrics. For this portion of the study, fragmentation statistics were analyzed, and images were developed to depict forest fragmentation patterns and trends. Results revealed that there was a net loss of 7.8% in forest coverage, dropping from 66.8% in 1988 to 59.0% in 2005, primarily caused by agricultural expansion and poor forest management practices. An acceleration of forest fragmentation was also witnessed during the time intervals, which was evidenced by a decreasing trend in interior forest (57.2% in 1988, 55.0% in 1996 and 54.8% in 2005 respectively) coupled with the scales of the selected geospatial metrics. Continued forest loss and fragmentation are closely correlated with the existing political, educational, institutional and economic processes of contemporary China. To unlock the developmental potentials of the collective forests and to effectively mitigate the rate of forest loss and fragmentation, reforms of forest tenure and ecological immigration practices are recognized as a prospective alternative. The produced fragmentation maps further illustrates the importance of assessing landscape change history, especially the spatiotemporal patterns of forest fragments, when developing landscape level plans for biodiversity conservation, land use management and ecologically sustainable forestry.

Applied Geography↗