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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Spawning habitat selection and egg deposition by reintroduced Lake Sturgeon in a tributary to Cayuga Lake, NY

In June 2017, we documented the first observed spawning event by a reintroduced population of Lake Sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) in Fall Creek, a tributary to Cayuga Lake, New York, USA. This is the first observed spawning encounter of adult Lake Sturgeon since the beginning of the multi-agency Lake Sturgeon restoration effort in Cayuga Lake initiated in 1995 by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Lake Sturgeon egg deposition was found specifically on substrate mainly composed of gravel sized rocks with depths and flows that made up a unique microhabitat combination within the creek which is not typical of habitat identified in other Lake Sturgeon spawning habitat studies across the Great Lakes. An estimated 810,052 ± 24,386 eggs were deposited in the sampled area of Fall Creek. The identified, potentially productive spawning microhabitat type in Fall Creek is likely to be widespread in similar tributaries around Cayuga Lake as well as small tributaries to other Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario. Ongoing research is focused on the evaluation of the extent of Finger Lakes habitat similar to that identified in Fall Creek. This microhabitat evaluation of sturgeon spawning and the broad scale landscape knowledge of tributary habitats, should support subsequent management to restore Lake Sturgeon.

New York↗
USGS2020

Determinants and consequences of dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles: a review of pond-breeding amphibians

Dispersal is a central process in ecology and evolution. It strongly influences the dynamics of spatially structured populations, by affecting population growth rate and local colonization-extinction processes. Dispersal can also influence evolutionary processes because it determines rates and patterns of gene flow in spatially structured populations and is closely linked to local adaptation. For these reasons, dispersal has received considerable attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists. However, although it has been studied extensively in taxa such as birds and mammals, much less is known about dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles such as pond-breeding amphibians. Over the past two decades, researchers have taken an interest in amphibian dispersal and initiated both fundamental and applied studies, using a broad range of experimental and observational approaches. This body of research reveals complex dispersal patterns, causations and syndromes, with dramatic consequences for the demography and genetics of amphibian populations. In this review, our goals are to (1) redefine and clarify the concept of amphibian dispersal, (2) review current knowledge about the effects of individual (i.e., condition-dependent dispersal) and environmental (i.e., context-dependent dispersal) factors during the three stages of dispersal (i.e., emigration, immigration, transience), (3) identify the demographic and genetic consequences of dispersal in spatially structured amphibian populations, and (4) propose new research avenues to extend our understanding of amphibian dispersal. In particular, we emphasize the need to (1) quantify dispersal rate and distance rigorously using suitable model systems, (2) investigate the genetic basis and dispersal evolution patterns, and (3) examine dispersal-related eco-evolutionary dynamics. These proposed research avenues tap from the recent advances in quantitative and molecular methods and have the potential to improve our understanding of dispersal in organisms with complex life cycles.

The Quarterly Review of Biology↗
USGS2000

Microsatellites: Evolutionary and methodological background and empirical applications at individual, population, and phylogenetic levels

The recent proliferation and greater accessibility of molecular genetic markers has led to a growing appreciation of the ecological and evolutionary inferences that can be drawn from molecular characterizations of individuals and populations (Burke et al. 1992, Avise 1994). Different techniques have the ability to target DNA sequences which have different patterns of inheritance, different modes and rates of evolution and, concomitantly, different levels of variation. In the quest for 'the right marker for the right job', microsatellites have been widely embraced as the marker of choice for many empirical genetic studies. The proliferation of microsatellite loci for various species and the voluminous literature compiled in very few years associated with their evolution and use in various research applications, exemplifies their growing importance as a research tool in the biological sciences. The ability to define allelic states based on variation at the nucleotide level has afforded unparalleled opportunities to document the actual mutational process and rates of evolution at individual microsatellite loci. The scrutiny to which these loci have been subjected has resulted in data that raise issues pertaining to assumptions formerly stated, but largely untestable for other marker classes. Indeed this is an active arena for theoretical and empirical work. Given the extensive and ever-increasing literature on various statistical methodologies and cautionary notes regarding the uses of microsatellites, some consideration should be given to the unique characteristics of these loci when determining how and under what conditions they can be employed.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2025

Control of a dominant predator influences the occurrence of a mesocarnivore of conservation concern

Context Interspecific interactions shape ecological communities, influence community dynamics, and drive co-evolution. Despite their ecological significance, predation and competition remain understudied in plains spotted skunks ( Spilogale interrupta ), a species of conservation concern. Clarifying how predator management influences their occurrence is crucial for effective conservation. Aims We investigated how coyote ( Canis latrans ) management affects the occupancy of plains spotted skunks and whether interspecific interactions with domestic cats ( Felis catus ) and striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ) influence plains spotted skunk occurrence. Methods We analysed live-trap data from east-central South Dakota collected in spring of 2021 and 2022. The study area encompassed portions of counties that implemented disparate predator management regimes, including one with systematic annual coyote removal and another without. We used single-species occupancy models to estimate detection and occupancy probabilities for plains spotted skunks, domestic cats, and striped skunks, incorporating environmental factors, including the site-specific predator control regime. We then applied conditional two-species occupancy models to test whether cats and striped skunks influenced plains spotted skunk occurrence. Key results Plains spotted skunks had the lowest occupancy, followed by domestic cats, and striped skunks. Our findings showed significant associations between coyote removal and occupancy probabilities for each mesocarnivore species. Plains spotted skunks had higher occupancy in areas where coyotes were annually removed. Spotted skunk occurrence was not conditional on either domestic cat or striped skunk occurrence. Conclusions In our study system, cats appear to pose less predation risk to spotted skunks than do other predators, reducing the likelihood that cats significantly influence spotted skunk occupancy. Defensive behaviours and use of spatial refugia by plains spotted skunks may further mitigate predation risk. In addition, co-evolutionary pressures may have led to trait adaptations that facilitate the independent co-occurrence of plains spotted skunks and striped skunks. Implications Our findings highlighted the ecological consequences of predator management and the importance of considering predator–prey dynamics in conservation and management planning. Strategies aimed at conserving plains spotted skunks should integrate predator control measures while considering broader mesocarnivore community interactions.

South Dakota↗
USGS2014

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis , was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica , showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Environment and Ecology Research↗
USGS2016

Tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasite sampling designs for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Parasites and pathogens are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of ecological and evolutionary change in natural ecosystems. Concurrently, transmission of infectious agents among human, livestock, and wildlife populations represents a growing threat to veterinary and human health. In light of these trends and the scarcity of long-term time series data on infection rates among vectors and reservoirs, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect measurements and samples of a suite of tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasites through a continental-scale surveillance program. Here, we describe the sampling designs for these efforts, highlighting sampling priorities, field and analytical methods, and the data as well as archived samples to be made available to the research community. Insights generated by this sampling will advance current understanding of and ability to predict changes in infection and disease dynamics in novel, interdisciplinary, and collaborative ways.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2026

Epigenetics in captivity: Restoring wild phenotypes in captive-reared salmonids

Captive rearing is a common practice for the stocking, conservation, and supplementation of fish species worldwide, but captive-reared fish can exhibit altered phenotypes leading to reduced fitness in nature compared to wild conspecifics. In salmonids, certain studies have found limited genetic differentiation between wild and captive-reared fish. However, documented changes in gene expression in hatchery fish have led scientists to investigate epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, as a source of these differences. In this binational collaborative piece, we synthesize the knowledge and efforts of academics and government scientists to highlight how interactions between captive rearing and the epigenome elicit parallel phenotypic changes across salmonid species. We examine the known and potential links between DNA methylation and the phenotypic effects of captive rearing including changes in behavior, color, gut microbiomes, and developmental abnormalities. We review efforts to minimize these phenotypic and epigenetic effects including attempts to modify the hatchery environment and rearing protocols. We provide a framework to integrate epigenetic considerations into hatchery rearing protocols by weighing the heritable nature of DNA methylation with the goals of different captive rearing programs and explore whether minimizing the phenotypic and epigenetic effects of captive rearing is worthwhile. We examine heritability and persistence of epigenetic effects, and we propose the exploitation of heritable bet-hedging as an epigenetic buffer to increase post-release survival. We also suggest novel applications of epigenomic biomarkers as a non-lethal method for post-release monitoring. Ultimately, collaborative multi-disciplinary research across species is needed to understand the comprehensive effects of captive rearing, reduce the ecological impacts of captive fish in the wild, and increase population resilience. Integrating epigenetics into fish hatchery management will provide new opportunities for optimizing and improving captive rearing.

Evolutionary Applications↗
USGS2025

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗
USGS2003

Management implications of the ecology of free-roaming horses in semiarid ecosystems of the western United States

Compared to other ungulates of North America, free - roaming horses ( Equus caballus ) possess a unique evolutionary history that has given rise to a distinct suite of behavioral, morphological, and physiological traits. Because of their unique combination of cecal digestion, an elongate head with flexible lips, and non-uniform use of the landscape, horses represent a unique disturbance agent in semi-arid ecosystems of the western United States . Consequently, it is inappropriate to assume that influences of horses on the structure, composition, function, and pattern of arid and semi-arid ecosystems will mirror influences of cattle or other artiodactyls. Although management areas for free - roaming horses occupy 18.6 million ha of land across western North America, we know relatively little about how western ecosystems and their components have responded to this uniquely managed ungulate. I draw on my research of horse habitats in the western Great Basin (U.S.A.) to examine predictions of horses ' unique influence, and advocate for continued research to refine our understanding of synecological relationships among horses and diverse ecosystem components in arid and semi-arid regions.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2017

The family Rhabdoviridae: Mono- and bipartite negative-sense RNA viruses with diverse genome organization and common evolutionary origins

The family Rhabdoviridae consists of mostly enveloped, bullet-shaped or bacilliform viruses with a negative-sense, single-stranded RNA genome that infect vertebrates, invertebrates or plants. This ecological diversity is reflected by the diversity and complexity of their genomes. Five canonical structural protein genes are conserved in all rhabdoviruses, but may be overprinted, overlapped or interspersed with several novel and diverse accessory genes. This review gives an overview of the characteristics and diversity of rhabdoviruses, their taxonomic classification, replication mechanism, properties of classical rhabdoviruses such as rabies virus and rhabdoviruses with complex genomes, rhabdoviruses infecting aquatic species, and plant rhabdoviruses with both mono- and bipartite genomes.

Virus Research↗
USGS2009

Application of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Missouri Streams

Natural flow regime concepts and theories have established the justification for maintaining or restoring the range of natural hydrologic variability so that physiochemical processes, native biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian assemblages can be sustained. A synthesis of recent research advances in hydroecology, coupled with stream classification using hydroecologically relevant indices, has produced the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP). HIP consists of (1) a regional classification of streams into hydrologic stream types based on flow data from long-term gaging-station records for relatively unmodified streams, (2) an identification of stream-type specific indices that address 11 subcomponents of the flow regime, (3) an ability to establish environmental flow standards, (4) an evaluation of hydrologic alteration, and (5) a capacity to conduct alternative analyses. The process starts with the identification of a hydrologic baseline (reference condition) for selected locations, uses flow data from a stream-gage network, and proceeds to classify streams into hydrologic stream types. Concurrently, the analysis identifies a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 11 subcomponents of flow for each stream type. Furthermore, regional hydrologic models for synthesizing flow conditions across a region and the development of flow-ecology response relations for each stream type can be added to further enhance the process. The application of HIP to Missouri streams identified five stream types ((1) intermittent, (2) perennial runoff-flashy, (3) perennial runoff-moderate baseflow, (4) perennial groundwater-stable, and (5) perennial groundwater-super stable). Two Missouri-specific computer software programs were developed: (1) a Missouri Hydrologic Assessment Tool (MOHAT) which is used to establish a hydrologic baseline, provide options for setting environmental flow standards, and compare past and proposed hydrologic alterations; and (2) a Missouri Stream Classification Tool (MOSCT) designed for placing previously unclassified streams into one of the five pre-defined stream types.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Decision making with environmental indices

Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

Book chapter↗
USGS1979

Exploitation of marine mammals: r-selection of K-strategists?

The importance of marine mammals as predators to the organization of marine communities is poorly known, although in several structurally analogous systems the ecological and evolutionary roles of predators are known to be of considerable importance. Occupation of the marine environment by mammals probably carried physiological constraints for single-young pregnancies thereby limiting all species to low intrinsic rates of population increase. As such, species subjected to high mortality rates from predation or other natural disturbances became extinct; those that survived probably were largely resource limited. In view of this scenario it is suggested that stable populations of marine mammals can be maintained at high levels without being manipulated in most communities. Exploitation probably constitutes a rather dramatic environmental change to marine mammals consequently subjecting them to selective forces fundamentally different from many of those under the influence of which they evolved.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗
USGS2020

Evaluating contributions of recent tracking-based animal movement ecology to conservation management

The use of animal-born sensors for location-based tracking and bio-logging in terrestrial systems has expanded dramatically in the past 10 years. This rapid expansion has generated new data on how animals interact with and respond to variation in their environment, resulting in important ecological, physiological, and evolutionary insights. Although understanding the finer details of animal locations has important management relevance, applied studies are not prominent in the movement ecology literature. This is despite the long history of applied studies of animal movement and the urgent and growing need for evidence-based conservation guidance, especially in the challenging field of human-wildlife interactions. The goal of this review is to evaluate the realized contribution of tracking-based animal movement ecology to solving specific conservation problems, and to identify barriers that may hinder expansion of that contribution. To do this, we (a) briefly review the history and technologies used in animal tracking and bio-logging, (b) use a series of literature searches to evaluate the frequency with which movement ecology studies are designed to solve specific conservation problems, and (c) use this information to identify challenges that may limit the applied relevance of the field of movement ecology, and to propose pathways to expand that applied relevance. Our literature review quantifies the limited extent to which research in the field of movement ecology is designed to solve specific conservation problems, but also the fact that such studies are slowly becoming more prevalent. We discuss how barriers that limit application of these principles are likely due to constraints imposed by the types of data used commonly in the field. Problems of scale mismatch, error compounding, and data paucity all create challenges that are relevant to the field of movement ecology but may be especially pertinent in applied situations. Finding solutions to these problems will create new opportunity for movement ecologists to contribute to conservation science.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Characterization of the genetic structure of four sucker species in the Klamath River. Final Report

Four species of suckers (family Catostomidae) inhabit the Klamath River Basin of Oregon and California: Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus), shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris), Klamath largescale suckers (KLS; Catostomus snyderi), and Klamath smallscale suckers (KSS; Catostomus rimiculus). All but Klamath smallscale suckers are endemic and restricted to the Klamath River Basin where they occur sympatrically in large lakes and reservoirs, including the Lost River and Klamath Lake subbasins (Figure 1; USFWS 2012). Population declines, primarily due to loss or degradation of spawning, rearing, and adult habitat, have resulted in Lost River and shortnose suckers being listed as endangered throughout their entire range under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (USFWS 1988). Continued population declines coupled with failed adult recruitment prompted the USFWS to initiate an assisted rearing program in 2015 as a part of their recovery strategy (Childress et al. 2019). The program was designed to maintain as much genetic diversity as possible while improving recruitment by averting high early life stage mortality (Day et al. 2017). However, while assisted rearing efforts are targeted towards endangered LRS and SNS, species differentiation of larval and juvenile suckers is problematic in the Klamath River Basin. This, in turn, complicates the management of these species as well as the population modeling used to evaluate recovery efforts. Maintaining as much as possible of the genetic resources, or “evolutionary legacy” of a species is a goal common to conservation and endangered species recovery strategies. Inappropriate assumptions regarding species’ evolutionary lineages, and genetic characteristics may lead to the mismanagement of an endangered species through a failure to recognize and appropriately manage species boundaries and genetic population structure. Despite a considerable amount of research, the partitioning of genetic diversity within and among the four species of suckers in the Klamath River Basin remains unclear. Previously developed genetic markers are effective at differentiating some species, but fail to effectively differentiate all four species of suckers in the basin (Tranah et al. 2001; Wagman 2003; Tranah and May 2006; Hoy and Ostberg 2015; Dowling et al. 2016). Peer-reviewed publications describing the morphological characteristics of (Markle et al. 2005) and genetic relationships among (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) Klamath River Basin suckers have not resolved uncertainties regarding the systematic relationships among the four currently recognized taxa. Specifically, genetic and morphological data generally support LRS and KSS as being distinct entities, but genetic evidence does not support a distinction between KLS and SNS. All three publications above refer to unpublished information regarding ecological differences between KLS and SNS as evidence to support the existence of two entities. However, the authors also acknowledge that overlap in morphological characters (Markle et al. 2005) and a lack of genetic differentiation (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) between KLS and SNS raises the question of their specific identity. This is particularly problematic in the Lost River subbasin, where overlap in morphological characters between KLS and SNS is greatest. In our opinion, the basis of the strong genetic similarity between KLS and SNS has not been resolved. Morphological characters mostly support the existence of two distinct species, while genetic characters do not (i.e., genetic divergence between KLS and SNS is less than divergence among populations of each species; (Smith et al. 2015). Some have suggested that introgressive hybridization may have resulted in a lack of genetic differentiation between KLS and SNS and a breakdown of monophyletic species (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006), and that this hybridization may be an important process in

California, Oregon↗
USGS2026

Functional traits can explain coordinated seedling responses to drought and freezing stress

Limited plant establishment creates demographic bottlenecks that can alter vegetation trajectories in changing environments, yet it is unclear how common eco-evolutionary indicators of plant strategy shape early response to key stressors. We evaluated how early functional traits, phylogeny, and adult climate niche jointly explain seedling drought and freezing tolerance across 49 semi-arid rangeland species. The best models explained 36% of variation in freezing tolerance (traits only) and 45% of variation in drought tolerance (traits, phylogeny, and climate), identifying both shared and unique indicators of different stress responses. Drought tolerance was explained by rapid root elongation and large seed size, while phylogeny captured additional tolerance within the grass family. Seedling freezing tolerance was linked to rapid root elongation and colder thresholds for root growth, though traits shared some explanatory power with adult climate niche (cold temperature distribution). While stress resistance can be shaped by phylogeny and adaptations to long-term climate regimes, our results elucidate early traits with clearer direct links to establishment capacity under drought and freezing stress, across species. Additional research is needed to understand how variation in stress response strategies across multiple demographic stages (e.g., seeds, seedlings, mature plant) and ecological scales (e.g., within and across species' climate distributions) could affect vegetation distributions and trajectories in changing environments.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, western United Stat↗
USGS2019

Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects

A long‐standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non‐native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense‐free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non‐native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century. Using a census of all 58 non‐native conifer‐specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects). We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non‐native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non‐native herbivorous insects. Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non‐native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.

Ecology and Evolution↗