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USGS2014

Demography of the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ): 1974-2006

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2017

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in a changing Arctic

The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) is a candidate to be listed as an endangered species under United States law, in part, because of climate change‐related concerns. While the population was known to be declining in the 1980s and 1990s, its recent status has not been determined. We developed Bayesian models of walrus population dynamics to assess the population by synthesizing information on population sizes, age structures, reproductive rates, and harvests for 1974–2015. Candidate models allowed for temporal variation in some or all vital rates, as well as density dependence or density independence in reproduction and calf survival. All selected models indicated that the population underwent a multidecade decline, which began moderating in the 1990s, and that annual reproductive rate and natural calf survival rates rose over time in a density‐dependent manner. However, selected models were equivocal regarding whether the natural juvenile survival rate was constant or decreasing over time. Depending on whether juvenile survival decreased after 1998, the population growth rate either increased during 1999–2015 or stabilized at a lesser level of decline than seen in the 1980s. The probability that the population was still declining in 2015 ranged from 45% to 87%.

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2024

Demography with drones: Detecting growth and survival of shrubs with unoccupied aerial systems

Large-scale disturbances, such as megafires, motivate restoration at equally large extents. Measuring the survival and growth of individual plants plays a key role in current efforts to monitor restoration success. However, the scale of modern restoration (e.g., >10,000 ha) challenges measurements of demographic rates with field data. In this study, we demonstrate how unoccupied aerial system (UAS) flights can provide an efficient solution to the tradeoff of precision and spatial extent in detecting demographic rates from the air. We flew two, sequential UAS flights at two sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) common gardens to measure the survival and growth of individual plants. The accuracy of Bayesian-optimized segmentation of individual shrub canopies was high (73–95%, depending on the year and site), and remotely sensed survival estimates were within 10% of ground-truthed survival censuses. Stand age structure affected remotely sensed estimates of growth; growth was overestimated relative to field-based estimates by 57% in the first garden with older stands, but agreement was high in the second garden with younger stands. Further, younger stands (similar to those just after disturbance) with shorter, smaller plants were sometimes confused with other shrub species and bunchgrasses, demonstrating a need for integrating spectral classification approaches that are increasingly available on affordable UAS platforms. The older stand had several merged canopies, which led to an underestimation of abundance but did not bias remotely sensed survival estimates. Advances in segmentation and UAS structure from motion photogrammetry will enable demographic rate measurements at management-relevant extents.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2005

Demography and decline of the Mentasta caribou herd, Alaska

We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou ( Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 ( r = –0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 ( r = –0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves ( Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Demography of common toads after local extirpation of co-occurring midwife toads

Estimating demographic parameters like survival or recruitment provides insight into the state and trajectory of populations, but understanding the contexts influencing those parameters, including both biotic and abiotic factors, is particularly important for management and conservation. At a high elevation national park in Central Spain, common toads ( Bufo bufo ) are apparently taking advantage of the near-extirpation of the midwife toad ( Alytes obstetricans ), as colonization into new breeding ponds is evident. Within this scenario, we expected demographic parameters of common toad populations tobe affected favorably by the putative release from competition. However, we found the population growth rate was negative in 4 of 5 years at the long-standing population; survival probability at the long-standing population and newly-colonised breeding ponds was lower than reported for other toads living at high elevations and the probability of recruitment was inadequate to compensate for the survival rate in maintaining a positive trajectory for either of the breeding ponds. We assessed weather covariates and disease for their contribution to the context that may be limiting the common toad’s successful use of the niche vacated by the midwife toad.

Amphibia-Reptilia↗

USGS2013

Of travertine and time: otolith chemistry and microstructure detect provenance and demography of endangered humpback chub in Grand Canyon, USA

We developed a geochemical atlas of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and in its tributary, the Little Colorado River, and used it to identify provenance and habitat use by Federally Endangered humpback chub, Gila cypha. Carbon stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) discriminate best between the two rivers, but fine scale analysis in otoliths requires rare, expensive instrumentation. We therefore correlated other tracers (SrSr, Ba, and Se in ratio to Ca) to δ 13 C that are easier to quantify in otoliths with other microchemical techniques. Although the Little Colorado River’s water chemistry varies with major storm events, at base flow or near base flow (conditions occurring 84% of the time in our study) its chemistry differs sufficiently from the mainstem to discriminate one from the other. Additionally, when fish egress from the natal Little Colorado River to the mainstem, they encounter cold water which causes the otolith daily growth increments to decrease in size markedly. Combining otolith growth increment analysis and microchemistry permitted estimation of size and age at first egress; size at first birthday was also estimated. Emigrants < 1 year old averaged 51.2 ± 4.4 (SE) days and 35.5 ± 3.6 mm at egress; older fish that had recruited to the population averaged 100 ± 7.8 days old and 51.0 ± 2.2 mm at egress, suggesting that larger, older emigrants recruit better. Back-calculated size at age 1 was unimodal and large (78.2 ± 3.3 mm) in Little Colorado caught fish but was bimodally distributed in Colorado mainstem caught fish (49.9 ± 3.6 and 79 ± 4.9 mm) suggesting that humpback chub can also rear in the mainstem. The study demonstrates the coupled usage of the two rivers by this fish and highlights the need to consider both rivers when making management decisions for humpback chub recovery.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Conflicting research on the demography, ecology, and social behavior of Gunnison's prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni )

Gunnison's prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni ) are rare, diurnal, colonial, burrowing, ground-dwelling squirrels. Studies of marked individuals living under natural conditions in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s showed that males are heavier than females throughout the year; that adult females living in the same territory are consistently close kin; and that females usually mate with the sexually mature male(s) living in the home territory. Research from 2007 through 2010 challenges all 3 of these findings. Here we discuss how different methods might have led to the discrepancies.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2014

Genetic diversity and demography of two endangered captive pronghorn subspecies from the Sonoran Desert

Species that have experienced population reduction provide valuable case studies for understanding genetic responses to demographic change. Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) were once widespread across the North American plains but were subject to drastic population reductions due to overexploitation and habitat fragmentation during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. A. a. peninsularis and A. a. sonoriensis, 2 pronghorn subspecies that inhabit the southern edge of the species' distribution, are almost extinct and now breed almost exclusively in captivity. We therefore sequenced the complete mitochondrial control region and genotyped 18 microsatellite loci in 109 individuals to evaluate the impact of population bottlenecks, captive breeding, small population sizes, and isolation on the genetic composition of captive populations of these 2 subspecies. We found extremely low levels of genetic diversity in both subspecies. The 2 subspecies showed high and significant genetic differentiation, indicating the absence of historic and recent gene flow despite their geographic proximity within the Sonoran Desert. Historical effective population size estimates for the 2 subspecies were inferred to be similar, whereas the Sonoran pronghorn has a contemporary effective size (Ne) more than twice as high as the Peninsular subspecies. Our findings suggest the need for careful genetic management of both subspecies in order to minimize the further loss of genetic variability.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2001

Reproductive ecology and demography of the 'Akohekohe

The ‘Ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) is an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper endemic to the montane rain forests of east Maui in the Hawaiian Islands. We investigated ‘Ākohekohe nesting ecology using color-banded birds for the first time as a background to understanding the species' conservation. From 1994–1997, we color-banded 78 individuals, located and monitored 46 active nests, and took behavioral data during 534 hr of nest observation at Hanawī Natural Area Reserve, near the center of the species' range. ‘Ākohekohe nesting behavior and life history closely resembled that of ‘Apapane ( Himatione sanguinea ) and related honeycreepers. The birds were monogamous within and among years, and we found no evidence of polyandry, polygyny, or helpers at the nest. The nesting season extended from November to early June. Females performed all incubation and brooding. Males provisioned females and nestlings, and they were more active than females in feeding fledglings during the two-week period of parental dependency. Modal clutch size, as determined from egg counts at three nests and by counting begging chicks at other nests, was two eggs, and parents frequently fledged two chicks. We found an overall nest success rate of 68% by the Mayfield method, a high rate compared with other Hawaiian honeycreepers and continental passerines. An average of 1.1 chicks fledged per active nest, and at least 42% of nesting pairs made two or more nesting attempts per season. Rats ( Rattus spp.) were abundant at the study site, and we confirmed their depredating some ‘Ākohekohe nests, so we did not expect to find such a high rate of nest success. The estimated annual probability of adult survival was also high, at 0.95 ± 0.10 (SE).

Condor↗

USGS2015

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λ RJS ) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4 th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2024

Aspects of the demography of a relict population of southwestern pond turtles (Actinemys pallida) in a West Mojave Desert stream in California

We studied Actinemys pallida (Southwestern Pond Turtle) in Amargosa Creek, near Palmdale, CA, from 1997 to 2023. The population in the upper creek was the focus of a mark–recapture study from 1997 to 2003 during monitoring required by a road-construction project. An estimated 193 (95% CI = 142–256) turtles were present in 1997 or recruited to the upper creek population between 1997 and 2003. Total abundance and recruitment declined after 2001, coincident with the onset of a multi-decadal megadrought. Turtles in upper Amargosa Creek are presumed to be extirpated because the creek dried up in the ensuing years. As part of a separate research project, we resurveyed the lower creek at Piute Ponds on Edwards Air Force Base from 2019 to 2023. As of 2023, there was a remnant breeding population of at least 22 turtles there. We did not find any marked turtles from the upper creek in the ponds. Only 2 populations of Southwestern Pond Turtles are known to survive in the Mojave Desert, one at Piute Ponds and another in the Mojave River.

California↗

USGS2021

Demography of the Appalachian Spotted Skunk (Spilogale putorius putorius)

Spilogale putorius (Eastern Spotted Skunk) is a small, secretive carnivore that has substantially declined throughout the eastern United States since the mid-1900s. To better understand the current status of Eastern Spotted Skunks, we studied survival and reproduction of the S. p. putorius (Appalachian Spotted Skunk) subspecies across 4 states in the central and southern Appalachian Mountains from 2014 to 2020. Using encounter histories from 99 radio-collared Appalachian Spotted Skunks in a Kaplan–Meier known-fate survival analysis, we calculated a mean annual adult survival rate of 0.58. We did not find support for this survival rate varying by sex, predator cover (canopy cover and topographic ruggedness), or climate. Compared to estimates of survival from previous research, our data suggest that Appalachian Spotted Skunk survival is intermediate to the S. p. interrupta (Plains Spotted Skunk) and S. p. ambarvalis (Florida Spotted Skunk) subspecies of Eastern Spotted Skunk. We located 11 Appalachian Spotted Skunk natal dens and estimated mean litter size to be 2.8 juveniles per female. We used a Lefkovitch matrix to identify the most important demographic rates and found that adult survivorship had the largest impact on the population growth rate. These results provide important demographic information for future Eastern Spotted Skunk population viability analyses and can serve as a baseline for future comparative assessments of the effects of management interventions on the species.

Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2008

Dry down impacts on apple snail (Pomacea paludosa) demography: Implications for wetland water management

Florida apple snails (Pomacea paludosa Say) are prey for several wetland-dependent predators, most notably for the endangered Florida snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis Vieillot). Management concerns for kites have been raised regarding the impacts of wetland dry downs on snails, but little data exists to validate these concerns. We simulated drying events in experimental tanks, where we observed that snail survival patterns, regardless of hydrology, were driven by a post-reproductive die off. In contrast to earlier reports of little to no dry down tolerance, we found that 70% of pre-reproductive adult-sized snails survived a 12-week dry down. Smaller size classes of snails exhibited significantly lower survival rates (< 50% after eight weeks dry). Field surveys showed that 77% of egg production occurs in April-June. Our hydrologic analyses of six peninsular Florida wetlands showed that most dry downs overlapped a portion of the peak snail breeding season, and 70% of dry downs were ??? 12 weeks in duration. Dry down timing can affect recruitment by truncating annual egg production and stranding juveniles. Dry down survival rates and seasonal patterns of egg cluster production helped define a range of hydrologic conditions that support robust apple snail populations, and illustrate why multiple characteristics of dry down events should be considered in developing target hydrologic regimes for wetland fauna. ?? 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗

USGS2000

Breeding season demography and movements of Eastern Towhees at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina

The Eastern Towhee ( Pipilo erythrophthalmus ) has undergone population declines across much of its range, especially in New England. Despite being a widespread and, at one time, a common species, relatively little is known about its natural history, ecology, or demographics. We conducted baseline research on Eastern Towhees at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, in 1995 and 1996 to estimate breeding season survival rates, nest success rates, breeding densities, and daily movements. We also were interested in whether towhees had differences in survival and movement rates between young and mature managed pine stands. We found that survival rates during the breeding season of radio-marked towhees did not vary by sex or stand type. Daily nest success rates were very low [0.629 ± 0.088 (SE)] as a result of high predation levels. Abundance estimates adjusted for sampling effort differed between years. In 1995, the abundance estimate was significantly lower in mature stands (7.1 ± 0.47) than in young stands (9.6 ± 0.60) while in 1996, there was no different between mature stands (26.2 ± 5.67) and young stands (16.5 ± 3.39). Average daily movements by radio-marked towhees did not vary by sex or stand type. Movements among adjacent stands were common, and sometimes great distances.

South Carolina↗

USGS1999

Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears

We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates, and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that, within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis, the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years, and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) crop failures during 1993–1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance, we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season, whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year), sex, management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. mangement-trapped once or more), and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped, implying a source/sink (i.e., never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink, estimated as the management-trapping rate ( h ), is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase, λ͞ . We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons, was higher in nonmast than mast years, and varied with age. We calculate that λ͞ = 1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall, we find that λ͞ = 1.01 ± 0.04 (mean ± 1 se ) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to whitebark pine, such as those posed by white pine blister rust, global warming, and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers, our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that is likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2004

Effects of an introduced pathogen and fire exclusion on the demography of sugar pine

An introduced pathogen, white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ), has caused declines in five-needled pines throughout North America. Simultaneously, fire exclusion has resulted in dense stands in many forest types, which may create additional stress for these generally shade-intolerant pines. Fire exclusion also allows fuels to accumulate, and it is unclear how affected populations will respond to the reintroduction of fire. Although white pine blister rust and fire exclusion are widely recognized threats, long-term demographic data that document the effects of these stressors are rare. We present population trends from 2168 individuals over 5–15 years for an affected species, sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana ), at several burned and unburned sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Size-based matrix models indicate that most unburned populations have negative growth rates (λ range: 0.82–1.04). The growth rate of most populations was, however, indistinguishable from replacement levels (λ = 1.0), implying that, if populations are indeed declining, the progression of any such decline is slow, and longer observations are needed to clearly determine population trends. We found significant differences among population growth rates, primarily due to variation in recruitment rates. Deaths associated with blister rust and stress (i.e., resource competition) were common, suggesting significant roles for both blister rust and fire exclusion in determining population trajectories. Data from 15 prescribed fires showed that the immediate effect of burning was the death of many small trees, with the frequency of mortality returning to pre-fire levels within five years. In spite of a poor prognosis for sugar pine, our results suggest that we have time to apply and refine management strategies to protect this species.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2005

Comparative demography of new world populations of thrushes (Turdus spp.): Comment

Survival and fecundity are fundamental to the study of evolutionary ecology, as they are two of the key variables influencing the constrained optimization process we call natural selection. Likewise, population managers require accurate estimates of these parameters; along with dispersal, they govern population dynamics ( Lack 1954 ) and thus are essential for predicting population change and the effects of management actions. It can be frustrating, then, when survival is difficult to estimate for certain populations, as in some avian species that exhibit a substantial degree of dispersal.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.

Ecological Applications↗