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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Does geomorphology determine vulnerability of mangrove coasts to sea-level rise?

The greatest climate-based threat to coastlines worldwide is sea-level rise. We tested the hypothesis that tropical coasts fringed by mangroves and receiving high inputs of terrigenous sediment are less vulnerable to sea-level rise than biogenic systems dependent upon peat formation for vertical land development. An analysis of published data spanning a range of geomorphic settings showed that mineral accretion was a poor predictor of vulnerability to rising sea level. We additionally compared two oceanic island systems representing two extremes along this sediment gradient to further examine controls on elevation dynamics in minerogenic versus biogenic mangrove systems. Minerogenic systems characterized by intermediate to high rates of mineral sedimentation (Pacific high islands in Micronesia) were not better buffered against sea-level rise because of high subsidence rates. Peat-forming systems (Caribbean low islands in Belize) kept pace with relative sea-level rise (combined ocean and land movements) because of subsurface expansion driven by root matter accumulation. The data were not consistent with the paradigm that tropical coastlines characterized by peat-forming mangroves are generally more vulnerable to sea-level rise compared to minerogenic systems; however, they are not necessarily equally sensitive to the same external and internal forces controlling soil elevations. Our findings demonstrate that reliance on surface accretion data alone can lead to an inaccurate evaluation of coastal vulnerability and why all surface and subsurface land movements must be considered in relation to local sea-level trends to assess risk of submergence. Recognition of such differences is essential to proper management of tropical coastlines to ensure their resilience in the face of future sea-level rise.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Potential impacts of an autumn oil spill on polar bears summering on land in northern Alaska

Demand for oil and natural gas continues to increase, leading to the development of remote regions where it is riskier to operate. Many of these regions have had limited development, so understanding potential impacts to wildlife could inform management decisions. In 2017, the United States passed legislation allowing oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska. This area has received limited industrial development and is an important region for polar bears that use the coastline as a travel corridor in autumn. We sought to understand how an autumn near-shore oil spill in the Refuge could affect polar bears. We simulated oil spills from shallow sub-sea pipelines at 3 locations along the coastline of the Refuge and allowed spills to discharge 4800 barrels of oil per day for 6 days, and tracked oil for 50 days. We interacted the trajectories with simulated polar bear movements to estimate how many bears might be exposed. Oil spread quickly along the coastline and during some weeks exposed an average of 10 bears (95 % CI: 0–37) to lethal levels of oil, and 60 (95 % CI: 9–120) to sub-lethal levels. Our results suggest a significant number of polar bears could become oiled from a spill in the region and require decontamination. Therefore, future mitigation strategies could include careful siting of future development and additional capacity to capture and decontaminate bears in the event of an oil spill.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Sediment distribution and transport along a rocky, embayed coast: Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay, California

Field measurements of beach morphology and sedimentology were made along the Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay, California, in the spring and summer of 1997. These data were combined with low-altitude aerial imagery, high-resolution bathymetry, and local geology to understand how coastal geomorphology, lithology, and tectonics influence the distribution and transport of littoral sediment in the nearshore and inner shelf along a rocky shoreline over the course of decades. Three primary modes of sediment distribution in the nearshore and on the inner shelf off the Monterey Peninsula and in Carmel Bay were observed. Along stretches of the study area that were exposed to the dominant wave direction, sediment has accumulated in shore-normal bathymetric lows interpreted to be paleo-stream channels. Where the coastline is oriented parallel to the dominant wave direction and streams channels trend perpendicular to the coast, sediment-filled paleo-stream channels occur in the nearshore as well, but here they are connected to one another by shore-parallel ribbons of sediment at depths between 2 and 6 m. Where the coastline is oriented parallel to the dominant wave direction and onshore stream channels are not present, only shore-parallel patches of sediment at depths greater than 15 m are present. We interpret the distribution and interaction or transport of littoral sediment between pocket beaches along this coastline to be primarily controlled by the northwest-trending structure of the region and the dominant oceanographic regime. Because of the structural barriers to littoral transport, peaks in wave energy appear to be the dominant factor controlling the timing and magnitude of sediment transport between pocket beaches, more so than along long linear coasts. Accordingly, the magnitude and timing of sediment transport is dictated by the episodic nature of storm activity. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology↗
USGS2002

Long-term cliff retreat and erosion hotspots along the central shores of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary

Quantification of cliff retreat rates for the southern half of Santa Cruz County, CA, USA, located within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, using the softcopy/geographic information system (GIS) methodology results in average cliff retreat rates of 7–15 cm/yr between 1953 and 1994. The coastal dunes at the southern end of Santa Cruz County migrate seaward and landward through time and display net accretion between 1953 and 1994, which is partially due to development. In addition, three critically eroding segments of coastline with high average erosion rates ranging from 20 to 63 cm/yr are identified as erosion ‘hotspots’. These locations include: Opal Cliffs, Depot Hill and Manresa. Although cliff retreat is episodic, spatially variable at the scale of meters, and the factors affecting cliff retreat vary along the Santa Cruz County coastline, there is a compensation between factors affecting retreat such that over the long-term the coastline maintains a relatively smooth configuration. The softcopy/GIS methodology significantly reduces errors inherent in the calculation of retreat rates in high-relief areas (e.g. erosion rates generated in this study are generally correct to within 10 cm) by removing errors due to relief displacement. Although the resulting root mean squared error for erosion rates is relatively small, simple projections of past erosion rates are inadequate to provide predictions of future cliff position. Improved predictions can be made for individual coastal segments by using a mean erosion rate and the standard deviation as guides to future cliff behavior in combination with an understanding of processes acting along the coastal segments in question. This methodology can be applied on any high-relief coast where retreat rates can be measured.

California↗
USGS2002

The last interglacial period on the Pacific Coast of North America: Timing and paleoclimate

New, high-precision U-series ages of solitary corals ( Balanophyllia elegans ) coupled with molluscan faunal data from marine terraces on the Pacific Coast of North America yield information about the timing and warmth of the last interglacial sea-level highstand. Balanophyllia elegans takes up U in isotopic equilibrium with seawater during growth and shortly after death. Corals from the second terrace on San Clemente Island (offshore southern California), the third terrace on Punta Banda (on the Pacific Coast of northern Baja California), and the Discovery Point Formation on Isla de Guadalupe (in the Pacific Ocean offshore Baja California) date to the peak of the last interglacial period and have U-series ages ranging from ca. 123 to 114 ka. The first terrace on Punta Banda has corals with ages ranging from ca. 83 to 80 ka, which corresponds to a sea-level highstand formed in the late last interglacial period. U-series analyses of corals from the Cayucos terrace (central California) and the Nestor terrace at Point Loma (southern California) show that these fossils have evidence of open-system history, similar to what has been reported by other workers for the same localities. Nevertheless, a model of continuous, secondary U and Th uptake shows that two ages of corals are likely present at these localities, representing the ca. 105 and ca. 120 ka sea-level highstands reported elsewhere. U-series ages of last interglacial corals from the Pacific Coast overlap with, but are on average younger than the ages of corals from Barbados, the Bahamas, and Hawaii. This age difference is explained by the nature of the geomorphic response to sea-level change: fringing or barrier reefs on low-latitude coastlines have an accretionary growth style that keeps pace with rising sea level, whether on a tectonically rising or stable coastline. In contrast, midlatitude, high-energy coastlines are sites of platform cutting during the early part of a sea-level high stand and terrace scouring and concomitant sediment and fossil deposition as sea level starts to recede. The youngest ages of corals from the Pacific Coast suggest that sea level was still relatively high at ca. 116 ka, which is not in agreement with other estimates of relatively large global ice volume at that time. Reliably dated, ca. 120 ka marine-terrace deposits on the Pacific Coast have fossil mollusks that indicate water temperatures as warm or warmer than at present. In contrast, ca. 80 ka marine deposits reported here and elsewhere have fossil mollusks indicating cooler-than-modern water temperatures. The presence of both ca. 105 ka and ca. 120 ka corals on the Nestor and Cayucos terraces explains a previously enigmatic mixture of warm-water and cool-water mollusks. At ca. 105 ka, a relatively high sea level with cool waters may have "captured" the terrace formed during the 120 ka sea-level highstand, in areas of low uplift rate. The inference of cooler-than-modern waters off the Pacific Coast of North America at ca. 80 ka and ca. 105 ka, based on marine-terrace faunas, does not agree with estimates of sea-surface temperatures derived from alkenone studies in the Santa Barbara Basin. However, cooler water temperatures at these times are in agreement with paleo-temperature estimates from planktonic foraminiferal data for the Santa Barbara Basin. All records, from central California to Baja California, whether from marine terraces or offshore cores, indicate at least seasonably warmer-than-modern waters during the peak of the last interglacial period at ca. 120 ka.

Pacific Coast↗
USGS2014

The rock coast of the USA

The coastline of the USA is vast and comprises a variety of landform types including barrier islands, mainland beaches, soft bluffed coastlines and hard rocky coasts. The majority of the bluffed and rocky coasts are found in the northeastern part of the country (New England) and along the Pacific coast. Rocky and bluffed landform types are commonly interspersed along the coastline and occur as a result of relative lowering of sea level from tectonic or isostatic forcing, which can occur on timescales ranging from instantaneous to millenia. Recent research on sea cliffs in the contiguous USA has focused on a broad range of topics from documenting erosion rates to identifying processes and controls on morphology to prediction modelling. This chapter provides a detailed synthesis of recent and seminal research on rocky coast geomorphology along open-ocean coasts of the continental United States (USA).

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Coastal eolian sand-ramp development related to paleo-sea-level changes during the Latest Pleistocene and Holocene (21–0 ka) in San Miguel Island, California, U.S.A.

Coastal eolian sand ramps (5–130 m elevation) on the northern slope (windward) side of the small San Miguel Island (13 km in W-E length) range in age from late Pleistocene to modern time, though a major hiatus in sand-ramp growth occurred during the early Holocene marine transgression (16–9 ka). The Holocene sand ramps (1–5 m measured thicknesses) currently lack large dune forms, thereby representing deflated erosional remnants, locally covering thicker late Pleistocene sand-ramp deposits. The ramp sand was initially supplied from the adjacent island-shelf platform, extending about 20 km north of the present coastline. The sand-ramp deposits and interbedded loess soils were 14 C dated using 112 samples from 32 archaeological sites and other geologic sections. Latest Pleistocene sand ramps (66–18 ka) were derived from across-shelf eolian sand transport during marine low stands. Shoreward wave transport supplied remobilized late Pleistocene sand from the inner shelf to Holocene beaches, where dominant NW winds supplied sand to the sand ramps. The onset dates of the sand-ramp deposition in San Miguel are 7.2 ± 1.5 ka (sample n = 14). The internal strata dates in the vertically accreting sand ramps are 3.4 ± 1.7 ka ( n = 34). The sand ramps in San Miguel show wide-scale termination of sand supply in the latest Holocene time. The sand-ramp top dates or burial dates are 1.7 ± 0.9 ka ( n = 28). The latest Holocene sand ramps are truncated along most of the island's northern coastline, indicating recent losses of nearshore sand reserves to onshore, alongshore, and, possibly, offshore sand sinks. The truncated sand ramps in San Miguel Island and in other sand-depleted marine coastlines provide warnings about future beach erosion and/or shoreline retreat from accelerated sea-level rise accompanying predicted global warming.

California↗
USGS2007

The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast

The U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector cliff edges and associated rates of cliff retreat along the open-ocean California coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Cliff erosion is a chronic problem along many coastlines of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a critical need for these data to be consistent from one region to another. One objective of this work is to a develop standard, repeatable methodology for mapping and analyzing cliff edge retreat so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of cliff edge position and associated rates of erosion can be made at a national scale. This data compilation for open-ocean cliff edges for the California coast is a separate, yet related study to Hapke and others, 2006 documenting shoreline change along sandy shorelines of the California coast, which is itself one in a series that includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic coast (Morton and others, 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005). Future reports and data compilations will include coverage of the Northeast U.S., the Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska. Cliff edge change is determined by comparing the positions of one historical cliff edge digitized from maps with a modern cliff edge derived from topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys. Historical cliff edges for the California coast represent the 1920s-1930s time-period; the most recent cliff edge was delineated using data collected between 1998 and 2002. End-point rate calculations were used to evaluate rates of erosion between the two cliff edges. Please refer to our full report on cliff edge erosion along the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1133/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke and others, 2007). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with accompanying metadata. Vector cliff edges may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and the sources used are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California coast. The vector data form a basemap comprising polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

California↗
USGS2007

Stratigraphy, structure, and geologic and coastal hazards in the Penuelas to Salinas area, southern Puerto Rico: A compendium of published literature

The Puerto Rico Electrical Power Authority has proposed construction of a pipeline to convey natural gas from the municipio of Peñuelas to the Aguirre thermoelectric power plant in the municipio of Salinas in southern Puerto Rico. To ensure that the geologic conditions along the possible routes do not represent a threat to the physical integrity of the natural gas pipeline, and thus comply with State and Federal regulations, the Puerto Rico Electrical Power Authority requested the U.S. Geological Survey to provide a synthesis of published literature of the geology of the coastal plain in the Peñuelas to Salinas area. The study area is located in part of the Southern Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico. In the area that extends from the municipio of Peñuelas eastward to the Laguna de las Salinas at Ponce, a distance of about 5 miles, the study area is underlain by middle Tertiary carbonate units. Eastward from the Laguna de las Salinas to the pipeline terminus at the Aguirre power plant in Salinas, a distance of about 30 miles, the terrain is underlain by fan-delta deposits of Quaternary age. The carbonate units and the fan-delta deposits are underlain by early Tertiary and older-age volcaniclastics with subordinate sedimentary rocks and lavas. The Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone is the principal geologic structural feature in southern Puerto Rico. At present, the Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone is considered largely quiescent, although it apparently is associated with minor earthquakes. There is no evidence of terrestrial, late Quaternary faulting within the Peñuelas to Salinas area. Seismic activity in this area mostly originates from extension zones of more distal shallow sources such as Mona Canyon to the northwest and the Anegada Trough northeast of the island of Puerto Rico. The magnitude of completeness of earthquakes in the study area ranges from 2.0 to 2.5. The seismic density for the southern coast including the study area is about 0.128 earthquakes per square mile, which is close to the average for southwestern Puerto Rico. The estimated maximum peak ground acceleration most likely to occur in the study area, due to shallow depth seismicity with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, is 9 feet per second squared, as obtained by modeling results. The estimated peak ground acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, due to deep seismicity is 7 feet per second squared. In Ponce, the probability of exceedance per year is higher than 0.1 for the peak ground acceleration values less than 1 that result from shallow depth seismicity sources such as the Mona Passage extension zone. The potential for liquefaction due to seismic activity may exist in areas near the coastline that have loosely to poorly consolidated sedimentary deposits and a water table close to or at the land surface. Slope failure susceptibility within the study area, due to rainfall and seismic activity, may be limited to the area that extends westward from Laguna de las Salinas to Peñuelas. In this area, foothills with slopes exceeding 10 degrees are close to the coastline and are underlain by clayey limestone and marls. In the remaining part of the study area, eastward from Laguna de las Salinas to Salinas, the land is either nearly flat or has a slope of less than 10 degrees; consequently, the susceptibility to landsliding (slope failure) caused by seismic activity and rainfall is considered to be minimal or nonexistent. Based on modeling results from a previous study, the estimated maximum inland extent of tsunami-induced flooding is 2,600 feet in the Laguna de las Salinas and Boca Chica, located in Ponce and Juana Díaz, respectively. Flooding about 3,000 and 2,800 feet from the coastline are estimated for areas near Punta Cabullón and Jobos areas, respectively. According to the modeling results, the estimated maximum runup of the tsunami-induced flooding ranges from 9 to 14 feet for the Boca Chica and Punta Cabullón areas, respectively.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2009

Coastal Processes Study of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, California

The Santa Barbara littoral cell (SBLC) is a complex coastal system with significant management challenges. The coastline ranges broadly in exposure to wave energy, fluvial inputs, hard structures, and urbanization. Geologic influence (structural control) on coastline orientation exerts an important control on local beach behavior, with anthropogenic alterations and the episodic nature of sediment supply and transport also playing important roles. Short- and long-term temporal analyses of shoreline change, beach width, and volume change show no obvious trends in regional beach behavior. Extensive armoring along the SBLC has accreted the back beach, narrowing beach widths and in some cases increasing sediment transport. Unarmored beaches have exhibited mild erosion while maintaining similar widths. Harbor constructions have had notable impacts on downdrift beaches, but once the coastal system has equilibrated the signal becomes strongly dampened and littoral-drift gradients driven by natural shoreline orientation again become dominant. Sediment inputs from the Santa Clara River dominate sediment processes on beaches to the south. The SBLC is dominated by episodic flood and storm-wave events. Exceptionally large accretion signals along this stretch of coastline are closely tied to major flood events when large amounts of sediment are deposited in deltas. These deltas decay over time, supplying downdrift beaches with sediment. Storm-wave impacts and gradients in alongshore transport can lead to beach rotations and migrating erosion hotspots when geological controls are weak. Annual and seasonal rates of cross-shore and alongshore transport are at least 2-3 times higher for the more west- and southwest-facing beaches south of the Ventura River as compared to the more sheltered beaches to the west/north. Gross littoral transports are good approximations of net littoral transports for beaches west/north of Ventura as transport is almost purely unidirectional. However, significant transport reversals occur intermittently in the east/south, especially adjacent to the Ventura and Channel Islands Harbors. For this reason, and due to the episodic nature of flood and storm wave events, using dredging rates from the harbors at Ventura and Channel Islands as a proxy for drift rates may be invalid. An extensive grain-size investigation of the surface and shallow subsurface in the nearshore region of the SBLC identified only two sites for potential beach-nourishment material: offshore of Santa Barbara Harbor and Oil Piers. However, seismic-reflection lines offshore of Santa Barbara suggest shallow bedrock (< 1 m), so the volume of coarse material in this area may be limited. Sampling of the Santa Clara River delta was minimal, but this site could be promising. Numerical modeling shows that local beach behavior is primarily influenced by local littoral-drift gradients, which are in turn controlled by natural shoreline orientation. Given the high rates of net littoral drift and the relatively insignificant cross-shore transport in the SBLC, the SBLC should be considered a sediment-limited system (as opposed to a transport-limited system). Management actions, such as any future beach nourishment, would likely have a severely limited life span without employing additional measures that adequately address local littoral-drift gradients to retain added sand.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Observations of coastal change and numerical modeling of sediment-transport pathways at the mouth of the Columbia River and its adjacent littoral cell

Bathymetric and topographic surveys performed annually along the coastlines of northern Oregon and southwestern Washington documented changes in beach and nearshore morphology between 2014 and 2019. Volume change analysis revealed measurable localized erosion and deposition throughout the study area, but significant net erosion at the regional scale (several kilometers [km]) was limited to Benson Beach, Wash., a 3-km-long stretch of coastline immediately north of the Columbia River inlet. Despite the placement of approximately 6.3 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand dredged from the Columbia River navigational channel at nearshore placement sites located nearby, Benson Beach eroded 2.1±0.8 Mm 3 over the 5-year (yr) monitoring time period (420,000 cubic meters/year [m 3 /yr]). A hydrodynamic and sediment transport model was applied to simulate sediment transport fluxes, and a new visualization technique was developed to evaluate the linkages between nearshore dredge placement sites and adjacent coastlines near the mouth of the Columbia River. The model results indicate the dominance of wave processes on sediment-transport patterns outside of the inlet and suggest that the current configuration of the nearshore dredge placement sites can be improved to more efficiently enhance the sediment budget of Benson Beach to reduce erosion and mitigate associated coastal change hazards.

Oregon, Washinton↗
USGS2023

Observations of coastal circulation, waves, and sediment transport along West Maui, Hawaiʻi (November 2017– March 2018), and modeling effects of potential watershed restoration on decreasing sediment loads to adjacent coral reefs

Terrestrial sediment discharging from watersheds off West Maui, Hawaiʻi, has been documented as a primary stressor to local coral reefs, causing coral reef health to decline. The U.S. Geological Survey acquired and analyzed physical oceanographic and sedimentologic field data off the coast of West Maui to calibrate and validate physics-based, numerical hydrodynamic and sediment transport models of the study area developed by Deltares. These models simulated terrestrial sediment transport and dispersal from West Maui watersheds into coastal waters and how terrestrial sediment affects nearby coral reefs under different oceanographic forcing and watershed restoration scenarios. Wave energy and near-bed turbidity are positively correlated in the field observations, illustrating a process not captured by the model simulations in which sediment already deposited on the seabed is resuspended by wave action and subsequently transported by prevailing currents. In the model simulations, large waves during flood events led to a decrease in suspended-sediment concentrations. Notably, however, the model results only consider sediment entering coastal waters from five stream sources and do not simulate sediment already present on the seabed. The model simulations project that the Honokeana and Māhinahina coral reefs would experience the greatest reduction in sediment impacts from theoretical watershed restoration. Additionally, when large waves coincide with flood events, post-storm sedimentation generally decreases in the nearshore region, but increases in the region offshore of the reefs. The measured and modeled sediment dynamics demonstrate a demarcation between the coral reefs sheltered within embayments (Honolua reef) or behind points (Wahikuli reef) and those along the relatively open coastline between Kapalua and Kāʻanapali (Kapalua, Honokeana, Māhinahina, and Honokōwai reefs). The sheltered sites are affected by terrestrial sediment from single stream mouths, where most sediment is delivered within hours of a flood (rain) event. Once this sediment enters the nearshore, it settles out and remains within the reef area for a prolonged period owing to a lack of wave or current-driven bed shear stress. Thus, the primary effect of sediment on the reefs within these sheltered areas is sedimentation. In contrast, coral reefs along the unsheltered (or “open”) section of coastline (between Kapalua and Kāʻanapali) are more exposed to waves and terrestrial sediment from multiple stream sources. At these reefs, fine-grained terrestrial sediment can rarely settle but instead remains in suspension. Thus, even long after a flood event has occurred, these sites chronically experience light attenuation from suspended sediment. These analyses underscore the importance of understanding how coastal ocean waves and circulation can lead to different sediment dynamics and stressors for coral reefs along the same region of the West Maui coastline. These differing factors indicate that the most effective watershed restoration and mitigation strategies may vary among the different coral reefs and streams. An important next step is to determine how the science of this study can support management goals for these coral reefs: what are target reductions of sedimentation, suspended-sediment concentrations, or the resulting light attenuation? Then, using the coupled hydrodynamic-sediment model, we can examine which watershed restoration scenarios in each stream will best achieve those targets.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21 st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50 th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗
USGS2022

A numerical study of geomorphic and oceanographic controls on wave-driven runup on fringing reefs with shore-normal channels

Many populated, tropical coastlines fronted by fringing coral reefs are exposed to wave-driven marine flooding that is exacerbated by sea-level rise. Most fringing coral reef are not alongshore uniform, but bisected by shore-normal channels; however, little is known about the influence of such channels on alongshore variations on runup and flooding of the adjacent coastline. We con-ducted a parametric study using the numeric model XBeach that demonstrates that a shore-normal channel results in substantial alongshore variations in waves, wave-driven water levels, and the resulting runup. Depending on the geometry and forcing, runup is greater either on the coastline adjacent to the channel terminus or at locations near the alongshore extent of the channel. The impact of channels on runup increases for higher incident waves, lower incident wave steepness, wider channels, a narrower reef, and shorter channel spacing. Alongshore varia-tion of infragravity waves is predominantly responsible for large-scale variations in runup out-side the channel, whereas setup, sea-swell waves, and very-low frequency waves mainly increase runup inside the channel. These results provide insight into which coastal locations adjacent to shore-normal channels are most vulnerable to high runup events, using only widely available data such as reef geometry and offshore wave conditions.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗
USGS2024

Quantifying the coastal hazard risk reduction benefits of coral reef restoration in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Coastal habitat restoration, especially of coral reef ecosystems, can significantly reduce the exposure of coastal communities to natural hazards and, consequently, the risk of wave-driven flooding. Likewise, reef degradation can increase coastal flood risks to people and property. In this study, the valuation of coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), along the coasts of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas, demonstrated the social and economic benefits provided by these natural defenses. Across the territory, more than 481 people and $31.2 million of infrastructure were estimated to receive protection from coral reefs per year (2010 U.S. dollars). In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria significantly damaged coral reefs throughout the archipelago. By combining engineering, ecological, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools, this study provided a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration projects could help rebuild these damaged habitats and decrease the risks from coastal hazards faced by USVI’s reef-fronted communities. Multiple restoration scenarios were considered in the analysis, two of which are detailed in this report. These include (1) ‘Ecological’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 0.25 m high and 25-m-wide reef, and (2) ‘Hybrid’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 1.25 m high and 5 m wide. There are many ways that such structures could be developed. In the hydrodynamic analyses, there are no assumptions about how the restoration is developed. Many practitioners of both coral (and oyster reef) restoration consider that a reef height of 0.25 m might be delivered from planting corals alone and that 1.25 m might require a combination of artificial structures and coral planting. In a third scenario, the analysis investigated the reduction of protection benefits that would occur through the reduction of 1 meter of naturally occurring reef height due to reef degradation. The reduction of protection due to the loss of reefs can also be interpreted as the protection value of the existing reefs. In all studied restoration scenarios, it was assumed that the planting of corals would enhance hydrodynamic roughness, effectively dissipating incident wave energy and reducing the potential for coastal flooding. A standardized approach was employed to strategically locate potential restoration projects along the entire linear extent of existing reefs bordering the USVI, and to identify where coral reef restoration could offer valuable benefits in flood reduction. Potential restoration projects were only located within the existing distribution of reefs across the region, even though numerous sites were positioned far offshore (2-3 km), and some were at relatively deep depths (up to 7 m). Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to delineate flood zones at a 10 m 2 resolution along the entire region's reef-lined shorelines for all the potential coral reef restoration scenarios. These were subsequently compared to flood zones without coral reef restoration. The potential reduction in coastal flood risk provided by coral reef restoration, and the protection value of existing reefs, were quantified utilizing the latest information available at the time of analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. The change in Expected Annual Damages (EAD), a metric indicating the annual protection gained due to coral reef restoration, was calculated based on the damages associated with each storm probability. The findings suggest that the benefits of reef restoration are spatially variable within the USVI. In some areas, the analysis showed limited benefits from reef restoration, which may be attributed to the depth or offshore distances of proposed restoration sites. However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. The annual flood risk reduction attributed to potential ‘ecological’ coral reef restoration in the USVI was 99 people and $6.1 million (2010 U.S. dollars). The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) for this restoration approach was found to be larger than 1 (i.e., cost-effective) along 11% of the St. Croix coastline, 4.9% of the St. John coastline, and 8.7% of the St. Thomas coastline. This analysis offers stakeholders and decision-makers a spatially explicit and rigorous evaluation that illustrates how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration efforts in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas could be instrumental to reducing coastal storm-induced flooding. Understanding areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could effectively reduce climate hazard-related risks is crucial to protect and enhance the resilience of coastal communities in USVI.

Report↗
USGS2006

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2021

A global ecological classification of coastal segment units to complement marine biodiversity observation network assessments

A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent water, adjacent land, and coastline itself. The 4 million segments were classified into 81,000 coastal segment units (CSUs) as unique combinations of variable classes. We summarize the process to develop the CSUs and derive summary descriptions for the seven MBON case study sites. We discuss the intended application of the new CSU data for research and management in coastal areas.

Oceanography↗
USGS2000

Reevaluation of tsunami formation by debris avalanche at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Debris avalanches entering the sea at Augustine Volcano, Alaska have been proposed as a mechanism for generating tsunamis. Historical accounts of the 1883 eruption of the volcano describe 6- to 9-meter-high waves that struck the coastline at English Bay (Nanwalek), Alaska about 80 kilometers east of Augustine Island. These accounts are often cited as proof that volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano are significant hazards to the coastal zone of lower Cook Inlet. This claim is disputed because deposits of unequivocal tsunami origin are not evident at more than 50 sites along the lower Cook Inlet coastline where they might be preserved. Shallow water (<25 m) around Augustine Island, in the run-out zone for debris avalanches, limits the size of an avalanche-caused wave. If the two most recent debris avalanches, Burr Point (A.D. 1883) and West Island (<500 yr. B.P.) were traveling at velocities in the range of 50 to 100 meters per second, the kinetic energy of the avalanches at the point of impact with the ocean would have been between 1014 and 1015 joules. Although some of this energy would be dissipated through boundary interactions and momentum transfer between the avalanche and the sea, the initial wave should have possessed sufficient kinetic energy to do geomorphic work (erosion, sediment transport, formation of wave-cut features) on the coastline of lowwer Cook Inlet. Because widespread evidence of the effects of large waves cannot be found, it appears that the debris avalanches could not have been traveling very fast when they entered the sea, or they happened during low tide and displaced only small volumes of water. In light of these results, the hazard from volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano appears minor, unless a very large debris avalanche occurs at high tide.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗